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Abstract The fire crises in the Amazon continues to increase the risk of large-scale forest dieback, threatening regional biodiversity and global climate. This issue gained international attention in 2019 when fires in the Brazilian Amazon led to a fire ban imposition. Despite the uncertainty of its impact, the fire ban was reenacted in subsequent years. Here we assess the effectiveness of each fire ban by comparing observed fire counts with climate-driven predictions of fire for 2019–2021. While the 2019 ban likely reduced the number of fires to expected levels, it was largely ineffective in the years that followed. Four years later in 2023 under a different political dynamic, the Brazilian Amazon faced another fire crisis. Resolving this recurrent issue requires interventions that target the underlying causes of fire and extend beyond emergency measures, including long-term strategies focused on landscape management, public awareness and education, and engagement with local communities and stakeholders.

The Brazilian Amazon is one of Earth’s most biodiverse and ecologically important regions. However, research investments for biodiversity in the biome are disproportionately low compared with other regions of Brazil. In 2022, the Amazon received 13% of master's, doctoral and postdoctoral scholarships and hosted 11% of all researchers working in biodiversity postgraduate programs. Amazonian institutions received approximately 10% of all federal budget spent on grants and scholarships and about 23% of all resources destined to support long-term ecological sites. The cities of Manaus and Belém concentrate about 90% of all grants and scholarships available for the entire region. Despite per capita research investment in the Amazon being equal to or better than that available for the more economically developed regions of Brazil, the distribution of resources by area is highly unequal. Increasing research funding for the Amazon region requires differential input by federal agencies and more transnational collaborations and integration between Amazonian programs and international funds.

Abstract Using 2.046 botanically-inventoried tree plots across the largest tropical forest on Earth, we mapped tree species-diversity and tree species-richness at 0.1-degree resolution, and investigated drivers for diversity and richness. Using only location, stratified by forest type, as predictor, our spatial model, to the best of our knowledge, provides the most accurate map of tree diversity in Amazonia to date, explaining approximately 70% of the tree diversity and species-richness. Large soil-forest combinations determine a significant percentage of the variation in tree species-richness and tree alpha-diversity in Amazonian forest-plots. We suggest that the size and fragmentation of these systems drive their large-scale diversity patterns and hence local diversity. A model not using location but cumulative water deficit, tree density, and temperature seasonality explains 47% of the tree species-richness in the terra-firme forest in Amazonia. Over large areas across Amazonia, residuals of this relationship are small and poorly spatially structured, suggesting that much of the residual variation may be local. The Guyana Shield area has consistently negative residuals, showing that this area has lower tree species-richness than expected by our models. We provide extensive plot meta-data, including tree density, tree alpha-diversity and tree species-richness results and gridded maps at 0.1-degree resolution.

Acoustic monitoring has proven to be an effective tool for monitoring biotic soundscapes in the marine, terrestrial, and aquatic realms. Recently it has been suggested that it could also be an effective method for monitoring soil soundscapes, but has been used in very few studies, primarily in temperate and polar regions.We present the first study of soil soundscapes using passive acoustic monitoring in tropical forests, using a novel analytical pipeline allowing for the use of in-situ recording of soundscapes with minimal soil disturbance. We found significant differences in acoustic index values between burnt and unburnt forests and the first indications of a diel cycle in soil soundscapes.These promising results and methodological advances highlight the potential of passive acoustic monitoring for large-scale and long-term monitoring of soil biodiversity. We use the results to discuss research priorities, including relating soil biophony to community structure and ecosystem function, and the use of appropriate hardware and analytical techniques.

Abstract In a time of rapid global change, the question of what determines patterns in species abundance distribution remains a priority for understanding the complex dynamics of ecosystems. The constrained maximization of information entropy provides a framework for the understanding of such complex systems dynamics by a quantitative analysis of important constraints via predictions using least biased probability distributions. We apply it to over two thousand hectares of Amazonian tree inventories across seven forest types and thirteen functional traits, representing major global axes of plant strategies. Results show that constraints formed by regional relative abundances of genera explain eight times more of local relative abundances than constraints based on directional selection for specific functional traits, although the latter does show clear signals of environmental dependency. These results provide a quantitative insight by inference from large-scale data using cross-disciplinary methods, furthering our understanding of ecological dynamics.

Drought and fire reduce productivity and increase tree mortality in tropical forests. Fires also produce pyrogenic carbon (PyC), which persists in situ for centuries to millennia, and represents a legacy of past fires, potentially improving soil fertility and water holding capacity and selecting for the survival and recruitment of certain tree life-history (or successional) strategies. We investigated whether PyC is correlated with physicochemical soil properties, wood density, aboveground carbon (AGC) dynamics and forest resistance to severe drought. To achieve our aim, we used an Amazon-wide, long-term plot network, in forests without known recent fires, integrating site-specific measures of forest dynamics, soil properties and a unique soil PyC concentration database. We found that forests with higher concentrations of soil PyC had both higher soil fertility and lower wood density. Soil PyC was not associated with AGC dynamics in non-drought years. However, during extreme drought events (10% driest years), forests with higher concentrations of soil PyC experienced lower reductions in AGC gains (woody growth and recruitment), with this drought-immunizing effect increasing with drought severity. Forests with a legacy of ancient fires are therefore more likely to continue to grow and recruit under increased drought severity. Forests with high soil PyC concentrations (third quartile) had 3.8% greater AGC gains under mean drought, but 33.7% greater under the most extreme drought than forests with low soil PyC concentrations (first quartile), offsetting losses of up to 0.68 Mg C ha–1yr–1 of AGC under extreme drought events. This suggests that ancient fires have legacy effects on current forest dynamics, by altering soil fertility and favoring tree species capable of continued growth and recruitment during droughts. Therefore, mature forest that experienced fires centuries or millennia ago may have greater resistance to current short-term droughts.

Abstract Estimation of avian biodiversity is a cornerstone measure of ecosystem condition. Surveys conducted using autonomous recorders are often more efficient at estimating diversity than traditional point‐count surveys. However, there is limited research into the optimal temporal resolution for sampling—the trade‐off between the number of samples and sample duration when sampling a survey window with a fixed survey effort—despite autonomous recorders allowing easy repeat sampling compared to traditional survey methods. We assess whether the additional temporal coverage from high temporal resolution (HTR) sampling, consisting of 240 15‐s samples spread randomly across a survey window detects higher alpha and gamma diversity than low temporal resolution (LTR) sampling of four 15‐min samples at the same locations. We do so using an acoustic dataset collected from 29 locations in a region of very high avian biodiversity—the eastern Brazilian Amazon. We find HTR sampling outperforms LTR sampling in every metric considered, with HTR sampling predicted to detect approximately 50% higher alpha diversity, and 10% higher gamma diversity. This effect is primarily driven by increased coverage of variation in detectability across the morning, with the earliest period containing a distinct community that is often under sampled using LTR sampling. LTR sampling produced almost four times as many false absences for species presence. Additionally, LTR sampling incorrectly found 70 species (34%) at only a single forest type when they were in fact present in multiple forest types, while the use of HTR sampling reduced this to just two species (0.9%). When considering multiple independent detections of species, HTR sampling detected three times more uncommon species than LTR sampling. We conclude that high temporal resolution sampling of passive‐acoustic monitoring‐based surveys should be considered the primary method for estimating the species richness of bird communities in tropical forests.

Abstract Studies on the effects of human‐driven forest disturbance usually focus on either biodiversity or carbon dynamics but much less is known about ecosystem processes that span different trophic levels. Herbivory is a fundamental ecological process for ecosystem functioning, but it remains poorly quantified in human‐modified tropical rainforests. Here, we present the results of the largest study to date on the impacts of human disturbances on herbivory. We quantified the incidence (percentage of leaves affected) and severity (the percentage of leaf area lost) of canopy insect herbivory caused by chewers, miners, and gall makers in leaves from 1,076 trees distributed across 20 undisturbed and human‐modified forest plots in the Amazon. We found that chewers dominated herbivory incidence, yet were not a good predictor of the other forms of herbivory at either the stem or plot level. Chewing severity was higher in both logged and logged‐and‐burned primary forests when compared to undisturbed forests. We found no difference in herbivory severity between undisturbed primary forests and secondary forests. Despite evidence at the stem level, neither plot‐level incidence nor severity of the three forms of herbivory responded to disturbance. Synthesis. Our large‐scale study of canopy herbivory confirms that chewers dominate the herbivory signal in tropical forests, but that their influence on leaf area lost cannot predict the incidence or severity of other forms. We found only limited evidence suggesting that human disturbance affects the severity of leaf herbivory, with higher values in logged and logged‐and‐burned forests than undisturbed and secondary forests. Additionally, we found no effect of human disturbance on the incidence of leaf herbivory.

Abstract Conservationists often assume that connection with and caring about nature's well‐being is strongly linked to ecological knowledge. Existing evidence on the link between ecological knowledge and psychological nature connection is mixed, geographically limited to countries in the Global North, and does not scrutinise potential differences in determinants of ecological knowledge and nature connection. We investigate the relationship between psychological nature connection and ecological knowledge of local bird species, and assess their associations with potential drivers, including access to, contact with, and reliance on nature and socio‐demographic characteristics. Our study is carried among a novel participant population of colonist farmers living along a major deforestation frontier in the Brazilian Amazon. Our study context has high conservation relevance and provides an ideal setting to assess the extent to which conservation psychology's insights from the Global North hold true elsewhere. Tropical farm‐forest frontiers suffer from intense habitat and biodiversity loss, and farmers with migrant origins are important yet rarely studied conservation stakeholders. Importantly, farmers' experiences of nature are likely to vary considerably due to the wide range of socio‐demographic, economic, geographical and cultural diversity. Interviewees scored highly on two indices of nature connection, but scores were higher among older people and those with greater contact with nature. Bird identification knowledge was generally low to moderate, and higher among men and younger people. Species more frequently recognised were regionally common, larger‐bodied or associated with non‐forest habitats. Ecological knowledge of birds and nature connection were not correlated, and they did not have any predictors in common. Our results indicate that colonist farmers are capable of forming strong connections with nature, even if they rarely possess detailed knowledge of local forest biodiversity. Considering the complex and apparently context‐dependent relationship between knowing and caring about nature, it is unwise to assume that changing one would automatically affect the other. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article.

Restoration of tropical landscapes through the expansion of secondary forests is crucial for climate change mitigation and offers co-benefits for biodiversity. However, the strength of these benefits is influenced by the position of these secondary forests within the landscape. Recovery of both carbon stocks and biodiversity in secondary forests are enhanced by proximity to old-growth forests, and old-growth forests may benefit from secondary forests in return through buffering of edge effects and reduced fragmentation. However, to date there has been no biome-wide assessment of secondary forest location relative to old-growth forests. We mapped Amazonian secondary forests and explored their proximity to old-growth forests of different conditions. We then calculated the extent to which secondary forests buffer old-growth edge forest (

Abstract Billions of people rely on harvesting wildlife for food, and must contend with catch rates that vary in space (e.g. overharvesting near communities) and time (e.g. seasonal migrations). Yet, research has overlooked potential linkages between reduced wildlife catch rates (catch‐per‐unit‐effort) and food security. Moreover, assumptions that people living in biologically rich environments are food secure lack empirical testing. This is problematic given that food security rests on having stable access to sufficient food, rather than there being sufficient food. We examine spatiotemporal variation in fish catch rates and perceived food security among rural communities in Amazonian flooded forests. We also assess social inequities in food insecurity. We used structured interviews to collect data on fishing, hunting, chicken and beef consumption, and perceptions of food security. We did so during 556 household visits along a spatial gradient (1,267 km) of commercial fishing pressure, during high‐ and low‐water seasons. We provide the first empirical evidence of simultaneous seasonal crashes in wildlife catch rates and food insecurity. During the high‐water season, fish catch rates were 73% lower, and the probability of not eating for a whole day was four times higher. With a third of households skipping meals and a sixth not eating for a whole day during this season, food security can be classed as severe. However, less‐deprived households tended to avoid severe food insecurity. Fish catch rates and perceived food security did not vary along a spatial gradient of commercial overfishing. River‐dwelling Amazonians increased fishing and hunting efforts during the high‐water season, without eating more chicken and beef, emphasizing the importance of stable access to wild fish and bushmeat. This study shows how wildlife catch rates and food security can crash seasonally and simultaneously, demonstrating the fallacies of environmental and social policies which assume stability of food availability in resource‐rich areas. Our results have implications for degraded habitats where falls in catch rates also occur. This suggests that overharvesting, as with other causes of reduced catch rates, could cause food insecurity in wildlife‐reliant populations. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article.

Abstract Despite Amazonia possessing the highest freshwater biodiversity on Earth, urban landing data show how huge fishing pressure is placed on only a dozen species. However, truly characterising the fishery and understanding the drivers of species selectivity is challenging, given the neglect of artisanal fishing activity, who may catch most of the Amazon’s fish. We register the catch of 824 fishing trips by interviewing artisanal fishers in their rural riverside communities. We use these data to characterise the artisanal fishery of the Rio Purus, the main fish source sub-system for the Amazon’s largest city (Manaus), and investigate the factors determining catch composition. Fishers caught 80 fish species, yet just four species made up over half of the harvested biomass. Urban markets appear to drive greater selectivity, with a significantly lower species diversity in commercial compared to subsistence catches. Fish catch composition varied significantly both seasonally and with geographical remoteness from Manaus. The spatial turnover in catch composition appears to be driven by urban access, with more commercially important species dominating where Manaus-based fish-buyers frequent. Our data may partially explain observed overfishing in some commercially important species, particularly as most Amazonians now live in urban areas.

The Brazilian Amazonian Forest is undergoing significant changes in land use and land cover in the last few decades. This land-use transition, besides climate change, may be responsible for the fire regime transition in this territory. Therefore, we aimed at investigating how the fire-transition occurs over time in the Brazilian Amazonia Forest and identifying the key parameters that can help to predict this change. For this, we collected yearly data on fire occurrence, forest cover, deforestation rates, and cropland areas. We used a 0.45° spatial surface grid, and with these annual values, we produced: (i) generalised linear mixed models of fire occurrence against forest cover, using years and grids as random factors; (ii) annual linear models of fire occurrence against forest cover; (iii) linear models of the apex values against the years; and (iv) generalised linear models of these apex values against deforestation and cropland areas. We found that there is a fire-transition process in the Brazilian Amazon Forest since a quadratic model better predicted the fire occurrence behaviour. Moreover, the fire occurrence apex is transitioning to more forested landscapes, from 50.7% in 2003 to 55% in 2019 (R² = 0.3). The deforestation rates and the cropland expansion had important relationships with the fire-transition, the first is related to the fire occurrence in the landscape (R² = 0.62), while the second better predicts the transition to more forested areas (R² = 0.38). Thus, we found that the fire-transition in the Brazilian Amazon Forest is strongly related to the land-use transition stages in this region.

A range of factors may determine the structure of ecological communities in time and space, in particular niches, dispersal limits, and the evolutionary history of the species. In the last decades, the traditional focus of community ecology on species diversity and composition have been supplemented by approaches incorporating functional traits and phylogeny. Following this perspective, we evaluated the response pattern of adult damselflies and dragonflies (Odonata) along a gradient of environmental disturbance in Brazilian Amazonia, with the objective of identifying subgroups of species that respond in a similar manner to environmental filters. The study tested the hypothesis that the subgroups of species with similar responses to the environmental gradient are structured phylogenetically and will be morphologically more similar to one another than they are to the other species. Adult odonates were sampled in 98 Amazonian streams, 48 in the region of Santarém and Belterra and 50 in the municipality of Paragominas, both located in the Brazilian state of Pará. The study was based on an ecological niche modeling approach and statistical significance testing methods to identify groups of species. These species groups (latent classes) were then associated with their morphological characteristics (Abdomen Length and Thorax Length) and phylogenetic relationships. Four latent classes, containing 34 species, were generated for each region. The latent classes of the Odonata formed along the gradient of anthropogenic impact had effects of phylogenetic proximity and the species' morphological similarity. Therefore, species belonging to the same latent class are more morphologically similar and have greater similarities in evolutionary history. It seems likely, however, that other processes may be important for the understanding of the structuring of the latent classes, such as intra- and interspecific relationships, environmental plasticity, and the history of land use. Both morphology and phylogeny are important for understanding species' responses to environmental gradients.

Amazonian rainforest is undergoing increasing rates of deforestation, driven primarily by cattle pasture expansion. Forest-to-pasture conversion has been associated with increases in soil methane (CH4) emission. To better understand the drivers of this change, we measured soil CH4 flux, environmental conditions, and belowground microbial community structure across primary forests, cattle pastures, and secondary forests in two Amazonian regions. We show that pasture soils emit high levels of CH4 (mean: 3454.6 ± 9482.3 μg CH4 m−2 d−1), consistent with previous reports, while forest soils on average emit CH4 at modest rates (mean: 9.8 ± 120.5 μg CH4 m−2 d−1), but often act as CH4 sinks. We report that secondary forest soils tend to consume CH4 (mean: −10.2 ± 35.7 μg CH4 m−2 d−1), demonstrating that pasture CH4 emissions can be reversed. We apply a novel computational approach to identify microbial community attributes associated with flux independent of soil chemistry. While this revealed taxa known to produce or consume CH4 directly (i.e. methanogens and methanotrophs, respectively), the vast majority of identified taxa are not known to cycle CH4. Each land use type had a unique subset of taxa associated with CH4 flux, suggesting that land use change alters CH4 cycling through shifts in microbial community composition. Taken together, we show that microbial composition is crucial for understanding the observed CH4 dynamics and that microorganisms provide explanatory power that cannot be captured by environmental variables.

Deforestation carbon emissions from the Brazilian Amazon have declined steeply, but how much drought-induced forest fire emissions add to this process is still unclear. Here the authors show that gross emissions from forest fires are more than half as great as those from deforestation during drought years.

Abstract The paper identifies the key factors limiting the effectiveness of current public policies to reduce Brazilian Amazon fires. Among them, (i) the dominant allocation of budget to fire suppression in detriment of prevention, (ii) the geographical limitation of the federal action and the reduced policy making capacity of states and municipalities, (iii) institutional insufficiencies and transaction costs related with fire use licensing, (iv) limited access to credit, market, labor and rural extension, constraints that block the diffusion of fire-free agriculture. It is recommended that policies be restructured to account for their cost and benefit and to include fire-dependent communities in their design and implementation. Progress in complementary socioeconomic policies is also needed.

Abstract The PREDICTS project—Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (https://www.nhm.ac.uk/our-science/our-work/biodiversity/predicts.html)—has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.

There is growing recognition of the potential of large-scale forest restoration in the Amazon as a ‘nature-based solution’ to climate change. However, our knowledge of forest loss and recovery beyond Brazil is limited, and carbon emissions and accumulation have not been estimated for the whole biome. Combining a 33 year land cover dataset with estimates of above-ground biomass and carbon sequestration rates, we evaluate forest loss and recovery across nine Amazonian countries and at a local scale. We also estimate the role of secondary forests in offsetting old-growth deforestation emissions and explore the temporal trends in forest loss and recovery. We find secondary forests across the biome to have offset just 9.7% of carbon emissions from old-growth deforestation, despite occupying 28.8% of deforested land. However, these numbers varied between countries ranging from 9.0% in Brazil to 23.8% in Guyana for carbon offsetting, and 24.8% in Brazil to 56.9% in Ecuador for forest area recovery. We reveal a strong, negative spatial relationship between old-growth forest loss and recovery by secondary forests, showing that regions with the greatest potential for large-scale restoration are also those that currently have the lowest recovery (e.g. Brazil dominates deforestation and emissions but has the lowest recovery). In addition, a temporal analysis of the regions that were >80% deforested in 1997 shows a continued decline in overall forest cover. Our findings identify three important challenges: (a) incentivising large-scale restoration in highly deforested regions, (b) protecting secondary forests without disadvantaging landowners who depend on farm-fallow systems, and (c) preventing further deforestation. Combatting all these successfully is essential to ensuring that the Amazon biome achieves its potential in mitigating anthropogenic climate change.

Fire is one of the main anthropogenic drivers that threatens the Amazon. Despite the clear link between rainfall and fire, the spatial and temporal relationship between these variables is still poorly understood in the Amazon. Here, we stratified the Amazon basin according to the dry season onset/end and investigated its relationship with the spatio-temporal variation of fire. We used monthly time series of active fires from 2003 to 2019 to characterize the fire dynamics throughout the year and to identify the fire peak months. More than 50% (32 246) of the annual mean active fires occurred in the peak month. In 52% of the cells, the peaks occurred between August–September and in 48% between October–March, showing well-defined seasonal patterns related to spatio-temporal variation of the dry season. Fire peaks occurred in the last two months of the dry season in 67% of the cells and in 20% in the first month of the rainy season. The shorter the dry season, the more concentrated was the occurrence of active fires in the peak month, with a predominance above 70% in cells with a dry season between one and three months. We defined a Critical Fire Period by identifying the consecutive months that concentrated at least 80% of active fires in the year. This period included two to three months between January and March in the northwest, and in the far north it lasted up to seven months, ending in March–April. In the south, it varied between two and three months, starting in August. In the northeast, it was three to four months, between August and December. By quantifying the role of the dry season in driving fire seasonality across the Amazon basin, we provide recommendations to monitor fire dynamics that can support decision makers in management policies and measures to avoid environmentally or socially harmful fires.

Wildfires in humid tropical forests have become more common in recent years, increasing the rates of tree mortality in forests that have not co-evolved with fire. Estimating carbon emissions from these wildfires is complex. Current approaches rely on estimates of committed emissions based on static emission factors through time and space, yet these emissions cannot be assigned to specific years, and thus are not comparable with other temporally-explicit emission sources. Moreover, committed emissions are gross estimates, whereas the long-term consequences of wildfires require an understanding of net emissions that accounts for post-fire uptake of CO _2 . Here, using a 30 year wildfire chronosequence from across the Brazilian Amazon, we calculate net CO _2 emissions from Amazon wildfires by developing statistical models comparing post-fire changes in stem mortality, necromass decomposition and vegetation growth with unburned forest plots sampled at the same time. Over the 30 yr time period, gross emissions from combustion during the fire and subsequent tree mortality and decomposition were equivalent to 126.1 Mg CO _2 ha ^−1 of which 73% (92.4 Mg CO _2 ha ^−1 ) resulted from mortality and decomposition. These emissions were only partially offset by forest growth, with an estimated CO _2 uptake of 45.0 Mg ha ^−1 over the same time period. Our analysis allowed us to assign emissions and growth across years, revealing that net annual emissions peak 4 yr after forest fires. At present, Brazil’s National Determined Contribution (NDC) for emissions fails to consider forest fires as a significant source, even though these are likely to make a substantial and long-term impact on the net carbon balance of Amazonia. Considering long-term post-fire necromass decomposition and vegetation regrowth is crucial for improving global carbon budget estimates and national greenhouse gases (GHG) inventories for tropical forest countries.

Abstract Biodiversity continues to decline in the face of increasing anthropogenic pressures such as habitat destruction, exploitation, pollution and introduction of alien species. Existing global databases of species’ threat status or population time series are dominated by charismatic species. The collation of datasets with broad taxonomic and biogeographic extents, and that support computation of a range of biodiversity indicators, is necessary to enable better understanding of historical declines and to project – and avert – future declines. We describe and assess a new database of more than 1.6 million samples from 78 countries representing over 28,000 species, collated from existing spatial comparisons of local‐scale biodiversity exposed to different intensities and types of anthropogenic pressures, from terrestrial sites around the world. The database contains measurements taken in 208 (of 814) ecoregions, 13 (of 14) biomes, 25 (of 35) biodiversity hotspots and 16 (of 17) megadiverse countries. The database contains more than 1% of the total number of all species described, and more than 1% of the described species within many taxonomic groups – including flowering plants, gymnosperms, birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians, beetles, lepidopterans and hymenopterans. The dataset, which is still being added to, is therefore already considerably larger and more representative than those used by previous quantitative models of biodiversity trends and responses. The database is being assembled as part of the PREDICTS project (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems – https://www.nhm.ac.uk/our-science/our-work/biodiversity/predicts.html). We make site‐level summary data available alongside this article. The full database will be publicly available in 2015.

Despite the growing ecological and social importance of second-growth and regenerating forests across much of the world, significant inconsistencies remain in the legal framework governing these forests in many tropical countries and elsewhere. Such inconsistencies and uncertainties undermine attempts to improve both the transparency and sustainability of management regimes. Here, we present a case-study overview of some of the main challenges facing the governance of second-growth forests and the forest restoration process in the Brazilian Amazon, with a focus on the state of Pará, which is both the most populous state in the Amazon and the state with the highest rates of deforestation in recent years. First, we briefly review the history of environmental governance in Brazil that has led to the current system of legislation governing second-growth forests and the forest restoration process in Pará. Next, we draw on this review to examine the kinds of legislative and operational impediments that stand in the way of the development and implementation of a more effective governance system. In particular, we highlight problems created by significant ambiguities in legal terminology and inconsistencies in guidance given across different levels of government. We also outline some persistent problems with the implementation of legal guidance, including the need to understand local biophysical factors in order to guide an effective restoration program, as well as difficulties presented by access to technical assistance, institutional support and financial resources for the establishment and monitoring of both existing secondary forests and newly regenerating areas of forest. Whilst we focus here on a Brazilian case study, we suggest that these kinds of impediments to the good governance of second-growth forests are commonplace and require more concerted attention from researchers, managers and policy makers.

Tropical forests are experiencing a growing fire problem driven by climatic change, agricultural expansion and forest degradation. Protected areas are an important feature of forest protection strategies, and sustainable use reserves (SURs) may be reducing fire prevalence since they promote sustainable livelihoods and resource management. However, the use of fire in swidden agriculture, and other forms of land management, may be undermining the effectiveness of SURs in meeting their conservation and sustainable development goals. We analyse MODIS derived hot pixels, TRMM rainfall data, Terra-Class land cover data, socio-ecological data from the Brazilian agro-census and the spatial extent of rivers and roads to evaluate whether the designation of SURs reduces fire occurrence in the Brazilian Amazon. Specifically, we ask (1) a. Is SUR location (i.e., de facto) or (1) b. designation (i.e. de jure) the driving factor affecting performance in terms of the spatial density of fires?, and (2), Does SUR creation affect fire management (i.e., the timing of fires in relation to previous rainfall)? We demonstrate that pre-protection baselines are crucial for understanding reserve performance. We show that reserve creation had no discernible impact on fire density, and that fires were less prevalent in SURs due to their characteristics of sparser human settlement and remoteness, rather than their status de jure. In addition, the timing of fires in relation to rainfall, indicative of local fire management and adherence to environmental law, did not improve following SUR creation. These results challenge the notion that SURs promote environmentally sensitive fire-management, and suggest that SURs in Amazonia will require special attention if they are to curtail future accidental wildfires, particularly as plans to expand the road infrastructure throughout the region are realised. Greater investment to support improved fire management by farmers living in reserves, in addition to other fire users, will be necessary to help ameliorate these threats.

Functional diversity indices are used to facilitate a mechanistic understanding of many theoretical and applied questions in current ecological research. The use of mean trait values in functional indices assumes that traits are robust, in that greater variability exists between than within species. While the assertion of robust traits has been explored in plants, there exists little information on the source and extent of variability in the functional traits of higher trophic level organisms. Here we investigated variability in two functionally relevant dung beetle traits, measured from individuals collected from three primary forest sites containing distinct beetle communities: body mass and back leg length. In doing so we too addressed the following questions: (i) what is the contribution of intra vs. interspecific differences in trait values; (ii) what sample size is needed to provide representative species mean trait values; and (iii) what impact does omission of intraspecific trait information have on the calculation of functional diversity (FD) indices from naturally assembled communities? At the population level, interspecific differences explained the majority of variability in measured traits (between 94% and 96%). In accordance with this, the error associated with calculating FD without inclusion of intraspecific variability was low, less than 20% in all cases. This suggests that complete sampling to capture intraspecific variance in traits is not necessary even when investigating the FD of small and/or naturally formed communities. To gain an accurate estimation of species mean trait values we encourage the measurement of 30-60 individuals and, where possible, these should be taken from specimens collected from the site of study.

This paper describes the avifauna sampled at the São Luiz farm, in Northern Mato Grosso State, a SouthernBrazilian Amazonian forest site. The avifauna was sampled at forested and open sites, between 29 June and 27July 2008, using point counts, mist-nets and general observations. We recorded 194 bird species within 18 ordersand 46 families. The records of this study expanded the known range limits of at least 16 bird species. Despitethe need for sampling in other seasons, the rarefaction curves indicate a representative sampling effort. Thebird community observed at this site contains most of the species typically associated with Amazonian forests,south of the Amazon, and suggests that ‘transitional forests’ found at this site should be qualified as ‘Amazonian’when considering their legal status. Our data highlights the importance of this anthropogenically-impacted andpoorly-known region of Amazonia.

This paper describes the avifauna sampled at Reserva Extrativista Chico Mendes, Acre, Brazil, during October and November, 2008. We recorded 344 bird species of 17 orders and 57 families through point counts, mist-nets and general observations. The most prevalent families were Tyrannidae, Thamnophilidae and Thraupidae with 53, 36 and 22 species, respectively. We recorded some range restricted, little know, and habitat specialists birds exemplified by Crypturellus atrocapillus, C. strigulosus, Primolius couloni, Aulacorhynchus prasinus, Drymophila devillei, Simoxenops ucayalae, Cnipodectes superrufus, Hemitriccus flammulatus, Percnostola lophotes, Xiphorhynchus chunchotambo, and Conioptilon mcilhennyi. Although we surveyed only during the dry season, the rarefaction curves indicate a satisfactory sampling effort. The data show that the Chico Mendes reserve holds a unique Amazonian bird community, which is influenced by the presence of bamboo and second growth vegetation. The results of this paper reinforce the biological importance of the RESEX and highlight the need for more inventories and bird studies at this isolated and little known region of the Brazilian Amazon.

Across the tropics, there is a growing financial investment in activities that aim to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, such as REDD+. However, most tropical countries lack on-the-ground capacity to conduct reliable and replicable assessments of forest carbon stocks, undermining their ability to secure long-term carbon finance for forest conservation programs. Clear guidance on how to reduce the monetary and time costs of field assessments of forest carbon can help tropical countries to overcome this capacity gap. Here we provide such guidance for cost-effective one-off field assessments of forest carbon stocks. We sampled a total of eight components from four different carbon pools (i.e. aboveground, dead wood, litter and soil) in 224 study plots distributed across two regions of eastern Amazon. For each component we estimated survey costs, contribution to total forest carbon stocks and sensitivity to disturbance. Sampling costs varied thirty-one-fold between the most expensive component, soil, and the least, leaf litter. Large live stems (≥10 cm DBH), which represented only 15% of the overall sampling costs, was by far the most important component to be assessed, as it stores the largest amount of carbon and is highly sensitive to disturbance. If large stems are not taxonomically identified, costs can be reduced by a further 51%, while incurring an error in aboveground carbon estimates of only 5% in primary forests, but 31% in secondary forests. For rapid assessments, necessary to help prioritize locations for carbon- conservation activities, sampling of stems ≥20cm DBH without taxonomic identification can predict with confidence (R2 = 0.85) whether an area is relatively carbon-rich or carbon-poor-an approach that is 74% cheaper than sampling and identifying all the stems ≥10cm DBH. We use these results to evaluate the reliability of forest carbon stock estimates provided by the IPCC and FAO when applied to human-modified forests, and to highlight areas where cost savings in carbon stock assessments could be most easily made.

Tropical forests continue to be plagued by the dual sustainability challenges of deforestation and rural poverty. We seek to understand why many of the farmers living in the Brazilian Amazon, home to the world's largest tropical agricultural-forest frontier, persist in agricultural activities associated with low incomes and high environmental damage. To answer this question, we assess the factors that shape the development and distribution of agricultural activities and farmer well-being in these frontiers. Our study utilizes a uniquely comprehensive social-ecological dataset from two regions in the eastern Brazilian Amazon and employs a novel conceptual framework that highlights the interdependencies between household attributes, agricultural activities, and well-being. We find that livestock production, which yields the lowest per hectare incomes, remains the most prevalent land use in remote areas, but many examples of high income fruit, horticulture, and staple crop production exist on small properties, particularly in peri-urban areas. The transition to more profitable land uses is limited by lagging supply chain infrastructure, social preferences, and the fact that income associated with land use activities is not a primary source of perceived life quality. Instead subjective well-being is more heavily influenced by the nonmonetary attributes of a rural lifestyle (safety, tranquility, community relations, etc.). We conclude that transitions away from low-income land uses in agricultural-forest frontiers of the Brazilian Amazon need not abandon a land-focused vision of development, but will require policies and programs that identify and discriminate households based on a broader set of household assets, cultural attributes, and aspirations than are traditionally applied. At a broader scale, access to distant markets for high value crops must be improved via investments in processing, storage, and marketing infrastructure.

REDD+ aims to offset greenhouse gas emissions through "Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation". Some authors suggest that REDD+ can bring additional benefits for biodiversity, namely for the conservation of extinction-prone restricted-range species. Here, we assess this claim, using São Tomé Island (Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe) as a case study. We quantified the abundance of bird and tree species, and calculated the aboveground carbon stocks across a gradient of land-use intensity. We found a strong spatial congruence between carbon and the presence and abundance of endemic species, supporting the potential of REDD+ to protect these taxa. We then assessed if REDD+ could help protect the forests of São Tomé and Príncipe. To do so, we used OSIRIS simulations to predict country-level deforestation under two different REDD+ designs. These simulations showed that REDD+ could promote the loss of forests in São Tomé and Príncipe through leakage. This happened even when additional payments for biodiversity were included in the simulations, and despite São Tomé and Príncipe having the fourth highest carbon stocks per land area and the second highest biodiversity values according to the OSIRIS database. These results show weaknesses of OSIRIS as a planning tool, and demonstrate that the benefits that REDD+ might bring for biodiversity are strongly dependent on its careful implementation. We recommend that payment for ecosystem services programmes such as REDD+ develop safeguards to ensure that biodiversity co-benefits are met and perverse outcomes are avoided across all tropical countries. In particular, we advise specific safeguards regarding the conservation of extinction-prone groups, such as island restricted-range species.

Fire has become an increasingly important disturbance event in south-western Amazonia. We conducted the first assessment of the ecological impacts of these wildfires in 2008, sampling forest structure and biodiversity along twelve 500 m transects in the Chico Mendes Extractive Reserve, Acre, Brazil. Six transects were placed in unburned forests and six were in forests that burned during a series of forest fires that occurred from August to October 2005. Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR) calculations, based on Landsat reflectance data, indicate that all transects were similar prior to the fires. We sampled understorey and canopy vegetation, birds using both mist nets and point counts, coprophagous dung beetles and the leaf-litter ant fauna. Fire had limited influence upon either faunal or floral species richness or community structure responses, and stems

Understanding how biodiversity responds to environmental changes is essential to provide the evidence-base that underpins conservation initiatives. The present study provides a standardized comparison between unbaited flight intercept traps (FIT) and baited pitfall traps (BPT) for sampling dung beetles. We examine the effectiveness of the two to assess fire disturbance effects and how trap performance is affected by seasonality. The study was carried out in a transitional forest between Cerrado (Brazilian Savanna) and Amazon Forest. Dung beetles were collected during one wet and one dry sampling season. The two methods sampled different portions of the local beetle assemblage. Both FIT and BPT were sensitive to fire disturbance during the wet season, but only BPT detected community differences during the dry season. Both traps showed similar correlation with environmental factors. Our results indicate that seasonality had a stronger effect than trap type, with BPT more effective and robust under low population numbers, and FIT more sensitive to fine scale heterogeneity patterns. This study shows the strengths and weaknesses of two commonly used methodologies for sampling dung beetles in tropical forests, as well as highlighting the importance of seasonality in shaping the results obtained by both sampling strategies.

BACKGROUND: Developing effective conservation plans for multi-functional landscapes requires an accurate knowledge of the relative conservation value of different land-uses. A growing number of tropical ecologists have evaluated conservation value using the number (or proportion) of species that are unique to primary or old-growth forests. However, estimates of the conservation value of modified land-uses may be inflated by the presence of occasional species (e.g. singletons and doubletons) that may be unable to exist as viable populations in isolation. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We use a unique 15-taxa dataset from a mixed-use forest landscape in the Brazilian Amazon to test the hypothesis that the removal of occasional species from sample data can increase estimates of the value of primary forest for biodiversity conservation. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Estimates of conservation value that are based on the proportion of species that are unique to tropical primary or old-growth forests are highly sensitive to decisions researchers make regarding the inclusion or exclusion of occasional species. By removing singletons from modified forest samples, and considering only those species known to occur in primary forest, we almost double estimates of the conservation value of tropical primary forests.

Fire is frequently used as a land management tool for cattle ranching and annual crops in the Amazon. However, these maintenance fires often escape into surrounding forests, with potentially severe impacts for forest biodiversity. We examined the effect of experimental fires on leaf-litter arthropod abundance in a seasonally-dry forest in the Brazilian Amazon. The study plots (50 ha each) included a thrice-burned forest and an unburned control forest. Pitfall-trap samples were collected at 160 randomly selected points in both plots, with sampling stratified across four intra-annual replicates across the dry and wet seasons, corresponding to 6, 8, 10 and 12 months after the most recent fire. Arthropods were identified to the level of order (separating Formicidae). In order to better understand the processes that determine arthropod abundance in thrice-burned forests, we measured canopy openness, understory density and litter depth. All arthropod taxa were significantly affected by fire and season. In addition, the interactions between burn treatment and season were highly significant for all taxa but Isoptera. The burned plot was characterized by a more open canopy, lower understory density and shallower litter depth. Hierarchical partitioning revealed that canopy openness was the most important factor explaining arthropod order abundances in the thrice-burned plot, whereas all three environmental variables were significant in the unburned control plot. These results reveal the marked impact of recurrent wildfires and seasonality on litter arthropods in this transitional forest, and demonstrate the overwhelming importance of canopy-openness in driving post-fire arthropod abundance.

Fire in the forested tropics has profound environmental, economic, and social impacts at multiple geographical scales. Causes of tropical fires are widely documented, although research contributions are from many disciplines, and each tends to focus on specific facets of a research problem, which might limit understanding of fire as a complex social-ecological system. We conducted a systematic review to (1) examine geographic and methodological focus in tropical fire research; (2) identify which types of landholders are the focus of the research effort; (3) test for a research method effect on the variables, e.g., socio-political, economic, and climatic, identified as causes of and proposed management solutions to tropical fire; and (4) examine relationships between causal factors and proposed solutions. Results from 51 studies show distinct geographic and methodological tendencies in the literature. Few studies explicitly identify landholder types, and no social studies focused on large-landholders. Multiple drivers and potential solutions to preventing fire are identified and the research approach adopted had the strongest influence on the socioeconomic, direct fire management and landscape characteristics variables. There was an overall mismatch between identified cause and proposed management solution. These findings indicate that mixed method approaches are imperative to understanding the coupled human-nature system of fire and to improve rural development and management strategies to curtail tropical fire spread.