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Freshwater species and their habitats, and transportation networks are at heightened risk from changing climate and are priorities for adaptation, with the sheer abundance and individuality of road-river structures complicating mitigation efforts. We present a new spatial dataset of road-river structures attributed as culverts, bridges, or fords, and use this along with data on gradient and stream order to estimate structure sensitivity and exposure in and out of special areas of conservation (SAC) and built-up areas to determine vulnerability to damage across river catchments in Wales, UK. We then assess hazard of flooding likelihood at the most vulnerable structures to determine those posing high risk of impact on roads and river-obligate species (fishes and mussels) whose persistence depends on aquatic habitat connectivity. Over 5% (624/11,680) of structures are high vulnerability and located where flooding hazard is highest, posing high risk of impact to roads and river-obligate species. We assess reliability of our approach through an on-ground survey in a river catchment supporting an SAC and more than 40% (n = 255) of high-risk structures, and show that of the subset surveyed >50% had obvious physical degradation, streambank erosion, and scouring. Our findings help us to better understand which structures pose high-risk of impact to river-obligate species and humans with increased flooding likelihood.

Emerging infectious diseases are a threat to biodiversity and have taken a large toll on amphibian populations worldwide. The chytrid fungi Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) and B. salamandrivorans (Bsal), and the iridovirus Ranavirus (Rv), are of concern as all have contributed to amphibian declines. In central and eastern Europe, their geographical and host distributions and main environmental drivers determining prevalence are poorly known. We screened over 1000 amphibians from natural and captive populations in Poland for the presence of Bd, Bsal and Rv. In wild amphibian populations, we found that Bd is widespread, present in 46 out of 115 sampled localities as well as 2 captive colonies, and relatively common with overall prevalence at 14.4% in 9 species. We found lower prevalence of Rv at 2.4%, present in 11 out of 92 sampling sites, with a taxonomic breadth of 8 different amphibian species. Bsal infection was not detected in any individuals. In natural populations, Pelophylax esculentus and Bombina variegata accounted for 75% of all Bd infections, suggesting a major role for these 2 species as pathogen reservoirs in Central European freshwater habitats. General linear models showed that climatic as well as landscape features are associated with Bd infection in Poland. We found that higher average annual temperature constrains Bd infection, while landscapes with numerous water bodies or artificial elements (a surrogate for urbanization) increase the chances of infection. Our results show that a combination of climatic and landscape variables may drive regional and local pathogen emergence.

[Aim] Alpine habitats support unique biodiversity confined to high-elevation areas in the current interglacial. Plant diversity in these habitats may respond to area, environment, connectivity and isolation, yet these factors have been rarely evaluated in concert. Here we investigate major determinants of regional species pools in alpine grasslands, and the responses of their constituent species groups., [Location] European mountains below 50° N., [Time period] Between 1928 and 2019., [Major taxa studied] Vascular plants., [Methods] We compiled species pools from alpine grasslands in 23 regions, including 794 alpine species and 2,094 non-alpines. We used species–area relationships to test the influence of the extent of alpine areas on regional richness, and mixed-effects models to compare the effects of 12 spatial and environmental predictors. Variation in species composition was addressed by generalized dissimilarity models and by a coefficient of dispersal direction to assess historical links among regions., [Results] Pool sizes were partially explained by current alpine areas, but the other predictors largely contributed to regional differences. The number of alpine species was influenced by area, calcareous bedrock, topographic heterogeneity and regional isolation, while non-alpines responded better to connectivity and climate. Regional dissimilarity of alpine species was explained by isolation and precipitation, but non-alpines only responded to isolation. Past dispersal routes were correlated with latitude, with alpine species showing stronger connections among regions., [Main conclusions] Besides area effects, edaphic, topographic and spatio-temporal determinants are important to understand the organization of regional species pools in alpine habitats. The number of alpine species is especially linked to refugia and isolation, but their composition is explained by past dispersal and post-glacial environmental filtering, while non-alpines are generally influenced by regional floras. New research on the dynamics of alpine biodiversity should contextualize the determinants of regional species pools and the responses of species with different ecological profiles., The authors thank Daniela Gaspar for support in GIS analyses. B.J.-A. thanks the Marie Curie Clarín-COFUND program of the Principality of Asturias-EU (ACB17-26), the regional grant IDI/2018/000151, and the Spanish Research Agency grant AEI/ 10.13039/501100011033. J.V.R.-D. was supported by the ACA17-02FP7 Marie Curie COFUND-Clarín grant. G.P.M. was funded by US National Science Foundation award 1853665. C.M. was funded by grant no. 19-28491 of the Czech Science Foundation.

We thank J.A. López-Saéz for very useful comments that improved the quality of the manuscript. We also thank two anonymous reviewers for their useful suggestions. JVRD was supported by "Severo Ochoa" PhD Grant (BP 12-093) and by funding through "Ayuda para Estancias Breves" (EB15-12) for a research stay at Masaryk University (Brno, Czech Republic) in 2015. Both grants were provided by the "Plan de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación" (PCTI) Government of Principado de Asturias. BJA was supported by the project Employment of Best Young Scientists for International Cooperation Empowerment (CZ.1.07/2.3.00/30.0037) co-financed from the European Social Fund and the state budget of the Czech Republic. MC was supported by the Czech Science Foundation (Centre of Excellence PLADIAS, 14-36079G). Areas of Quaternary refugia for tree species have been mainly delineated based on fossil records and phylogeography, but niche modelling can provide useful complementary information. Here we use palaeodistribution modelling to test the main hypotheses about the distribution of Castanea sativa in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the mid-Holocene in Europe. We computed distribution models for current climatic conditions using different methods, and projected them onto three climatic scenarios for the LGM and the mid-Holocene. The projections were validated with pollen and charcoal records. LGM refugia were suggested in the north of the Iberian, Italian and Balkan Peninsulas, and in northern Anatolia. The projections for the mid-Holocene indicated high climatic suitability and geographic expansion of the species range across southern Europe, including some areas where the species is nowadays considered as non-native. In general, our models are consistent with the patterns proposed with pollen and charcoal records, and partially also with phylogeographic information inferred from genetic data, suggesting that the most suitable areas for C. sativa were extended significantly during the mid-Holocene, but declined afterwards and lost connectivity. The projected patterns were compatible with existing palaeobotanical records of C. sativa and provide a spatially-explicit picture of the species past distribution.

Ground-based point clouds (from laser scanning or photogrammetry, and from static or mobile devices) give very detailed 3D information of forest plots. Also, if this information is complemented with data gathered from aerial vehicles, some parts of the forest structure that are not visible from the terrain can be represented (e.g. treetops). However, the heterogeneity of the point clouds, the complexity of some forest plots and the limitations of some data gathering/processing techniques lead to some occlusions and misrepresentations of the features in the plot. Therefore, complete automation of very detailed characterizations of all the items/features/structures in a forest plot is, most of the times, not possible yet.On one hand, single trees (or small groups of them) can be modelled in detail from dense point clouds (e.g. using quantitative structure models), but this processes usually require complete absence of leaves and intense and/or active operator labouring. On the other hand, many methods automate the location of the trees in a plot and the estimation of basic parameters, like the diameters and, sometimes, the total tree height.We are developing a fully automatic method that lies in between some very accurate but labour-intensive single-tree models, and the mere location and diameter calculation of the trees in a plot. Our method is able to automatically detect and locate the trees in a plot and calculate diameters, but it is also able to characterize the 3D tree structure: stem model, inclination and curvature; inclination and location of the main branches (in some cases); and tree crown individualization and diameter estimation. In addition, our method also classifies the points on understory vegetation.Our method relies on the integration of algorithms that have been developed by our team, and includes the development of new modules. The first step consists in an initial classification of the point cloud using a multiscale approach based on local shapes. As a result, the point cloud is preliminarily classified into three classes: stems, branches and leaves, and ground. After that, a series of geometric operations lead to the final 3D characterization of the plot structure: (i) stem axes and section modelling (from the pre-classified points on the stems), (ii) distance points-closest stem axis and tree individualization, (iii) extraction and characterization of the main branches, and (iv) final classification of the points laying on stems, main branches, rest of the canopy, understory and ground.We are testing the algorithm in several forest plots with coniferous and broadleaf trees. Initial results show values of completeness and correctness for tree detection and point classification over 90%.Currently, there are already several cross-cutting projects using our method´s results as inputs: (i) Automatic calculation of taper functions (use: diameters along the stem and tree height), (ii) wood quality based on shape (use: diameters along the stem and insertion of main branches), and (iii) wildfire behaviour models (use: fuel classification and 3D structure to adapt the data to the format of the existing 3D fuel standard models).

Accurate mapping of landscape features is key for natural resources management and planning. For this purpose, the use of high-resolution remote sensing data has become widespread and is increasingly freely available. However, mapping some target features, such as small forest patches, is still a challenge. Standard, easily replicable, and automatic methodologies to delineate such features are still missing. A common alternative to automated methods is manual delineation, but this is often too time and resource intensive. We developed a simple and automatic method from freely available aerial light detection and ranging (LiDAR) and aerial ortho-images that provide accurate land use mapping and overcome some of the aforementioned limitations. The input for the algorithm is a coloured point cloud, where multispectral information from the ortho-images is associated to each LiDAR point. From this, four-class segmentation and mapping were performed based on vegetation indices and the ground-elevation of the points. We tested the method in four areas in the north-western Iberian Peninsula and compared the results with existent cartography. The completeness and correctness of our algorithm ranging between 78% and 99% in most cases, and it allows for the delineation of very small patches that were previously underrepresented in the reference cartography.

The end of the first working program of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) provided an opportunity to draw lessons from its work. This perspective paper captures insights from ecosystem services (ES) researchers and practitioners, largely drawing from the Europeancontext (referred to herein as ES community ), on this key science policy interface. We synthesize reflections from a workshop on how (i) IPBES can engage the ES community; (ii) the ES community can engage with IPBES; and (iii) individual scientists can contribute. We note that IPBES constitutes a great advancement towards multidisciplinarity and inclusivity in ES research and practice. Key reflections for IPBES are that funding and visibility at ES research events could be improved, the contribution and selection processes could be more transparent, and communication with experts improved. Key reflections for the ES community include a need to improvepolicy-relevance by integrating more social scientists, researchers from developing countries, early-career scientists and policy-makers. Key reflections directed towards individual scientists include contributing (pro)actively to science policy inter-face initiatives such as IPBES and increasing transdisciplinary research. These reflections intend to contribute to the awareness of challenges and opportunities for institutions, groups and individuals working on ES. © 2020, © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor and Francis Group.

Rural Europe encompasses a variety of landscapes with differing levels of forest, agriculture, and agroforestry that can deliver multiple ecosystem services (ES). Whilst provisioning and regulating ES associated with individual land covers are comparatively well studied, less is known about the associated cultural ES. Only seldom are provisioning, regulating, and cultural ES investigated together to evaluate how they contribute to multifunctionality. In this study we combined biophysical and sociocultural approaches to assess how different landscapes (dominated by forest, agriculture or agroforestry) and landscape characteristics (i.e. remoteness and landscape diversity) drive spatial associations of ES (i.e. synergies, trade-offs and bundles). We analysed data of: i) seven provisioning and regulating ES (spatially modelled), and; ii) six cultural ES (derived from participatory mapping data) in 12 study sites across four different biogeographical regions of Europe. Our results showed highly differentiated ES profiles for landscapes associated to a specific land cover, with agroforestry generally providing higher cultural ES than forest and agriculture. We found a positive relationship between the proportion of forest in a landscape and provisioning and regulating ES, whilst agriculture showed negative relationships. We found four distinct bundles of ES. Three of them were directly related to a dominant land cover and the fourth to a mixture of forest and agroforestry that was associated with high social value. The latter bundle was related to zones close to urban areas and roads and medium to high landscape diversity. These findings suggest that agroforestry should be prioritised over other land covers in such areas as it delivers a suite of multiple ES, provided it is close to urban areas or roads. Our results also illustrate the importance and application of including people’s perception in the assessment of ES associations and highlight the relevance of developing integrated analyses of ES to inform landscape management decisions.

Understanding landscape heterogeneity is essential for developing reliable landscape planning and design methods. Nevertheless, despite the many advances made in recent years regarding the analysis of landscape heterogeneity, methods that produce useful results that can be applied to design, planning and management schemes are still required. In this study, we explore the use of the Quadratic Entropy Index (Q) as a measure of landscape heterogeneity. Although the Q metric is derived from information theory, the inclusion of a dissimilarity component in the calculation enables analysis beyond the syntactic content of the information and the inclusion of semantic content. Adoption of a multiscale approach to the calculation fulfils the desirable characteristics for a heterogeneity measure, while also producing spatially-explicit results. Application of the index to three landscape areas in NW Spain with different characteristics clearly demonstrated the capacity of the index to differentiate levels of heterogeneity, and their dependence on scale, and to detect scale invariance. The close fit of Weibull II logistic regression enables prediction of pattern-scale relationships beyond the area of analysis. The findings show that Q is a potentially useful support tool for design, planning and management procedures.

A clear link between ecosystem services (ES) and human well-being has been established in the recent decades. Thus, forests are recognised as extremely important ecosystems in relation to their capacity to provide goods and services to society. Nevertheless, this capacity greatly depends on the type of forest and on the management applied. Some types of data often used for this type of analysis, such as land use/land cover maps produced for general purposes, are not always appropriate for representing forest ecosystems and the services they offer. In this study, we used a forest map (Spanish National Forest Map: scale 1:25,000) and information describing composition and structure to assess six services closely associated with forest ecosystems in a forest-dominated zone of northwestern Spain on a regional scale. The following ES were considered: provision of food (basically fruits), provision of materials (timber and pulp), provision of biomass for energy (firewood), climate regulation (carbon storage by above-ground biomass), erosion regulation (protection against erosion), and cultural (recreational use and nature tourism). By combining information about tree species and cover with forest harvest data and other statistics, we established representative spatial models for the six ES representing different categories of the potential supply of each one. The six models were analysed by different methods (Spearman’s correlation, Moran’s I and Getis-Ord Gi*), enabling detection of hotspots and coldspots and the characteristic spatial scales for ES supply. The combined use of highly detailed map data, nonspatial databases and spatial analysis yielded accurate ES supply assessment.

The Mediterranean Region constitutes a biodiversity hotspot and its forests have provided multiple ecosystem services (ES) to human societies for millennia. In the last decades, many Mediterranean forests have undergone a decreasing level of direct human pressure and a growing exposure to environmental stress factors (e.g. wildfires and droughts). However, the degree to which these processes have affected the provision of ES remains largely unexplored. We used an extensive database of 3417 permanent plots (period 1990–2015, 25 years) from the Spanish National Forest Inventory in Catalonia (North-Eastern Spain) and a range of four ecological models to measure and estimate changes in five different ES: wild mushrooms production, timber volume increment, water provision, carbon sequestration and erosion mitigation. We then assessed general trends in ES, their spatial–temporal patterns and searched for potential trade-offs in their delivery. Using mixed-effects models, we explored the differences among three biogeographical regions, as well as the effect of different environmental and site level drivers, including descriptors of stand structure and development, the legacies of management practices and disturbances, as well as the influence of historical climate conditions and their recent anomalies. Our results show a general decline of timber volume increment, water provision and carbon sequestration, along with an increase in erosion mitigation across inland and montane regions. Fitted model parameters suggest a predominant role of stand structure in driving changes in forest ES supply in the study area. In particular, stands with high basal areas were associated with steeper declines in most ES, whereas high mean tree diameter generally contributed to ES increases. Finally, our results showed a series of potential trade-offs among temporal changes in ES that were not reflected in exclusively static analyses, highlighting the relevance of including the temporal dimension in regional assessments of ES. Future forest management and planning could better account for overall ES value as well as expected changes in their future provision, paving the way to landscape planning that balances these two essential components of forest ES.

Agroforestry, relative to conventional agriculture, contributes significantly to carbon sequestration, increases a range of regulating ecosystem services, and enhances biodiversity. Using a transdisciplinary approach, we combined scientific and technical knowledge to evaluate nine environmental pressures in terms of ecosystem services in European farmland and assessed the carbon storage potential of suitable agroforestry systems, proposed by regional experts. First, regions with potential environmental pressures were identified with respect to soil health (soil erosion by water and wind, low soil organic carbon), water quality (water pollution by nitrates, salinization by irrigation), areas affected by climate change (rising temperature), and by underprovision in biodiversity (pollination and pest control pressures, loss of soil biodiversity). The maps were overlaid to identify areas where several pressures accumulate. In total, 94.4% of farmlands suffer from at least one environmental pressure, pastures being less affected than arable lands. Regional hotspots were located in north-western France, Denmark, Central Spain, north and south-western Italy, Greece, and eastern Romania. The 10% of the area with the highest number of accumulated pressures were defined as Priority Areas, where the implementation of agroforestry could be particularly effective. In a second step, European agroforestry experts were asked to propose agroforestry practices suitable for the Priority Areas they were familiar with, and identified 64 different systems covering a wide range of practices. These ranged from hedgerows on field boundaries to fast growing coppices or scattered single tree systems. Third, for each proposed system, the carbon storage potential was assessed based on data from the literature and the results were scaled-up to the Priority Areas. As expected, given the wide range of agroforestry practices identified, the carbon sequestration potentials ranged between 0.09 and 7.29 t C ha−1 a−1. Implementing agroforestry on the Priority Areas could lead to a sequestration of 2.1 to 63.9 million t C a−1 (7.78 and 234.85 million t CO2eq a−1) depending on the type of agroforestry. This corresponds to between 1.4 and 43.4% of European agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Moreover, promoting agroforestry in the Priority Areas would contribute to mitigate the environmental pressures identified there. We conclude that the strategic and spatially targeted establishment of agroforestry systems could provide an effective means of meeting EU policy objectives on GHG emissions whilst providing a range of other important benefits. We acknowledge funding through Grant 613520 from the European Commission (Project AGFORWARD, 7th Framework Program). JVRD was supported by the Government of Asturias and the FP7-Marie Curie- COFUND program of the European Commission (Grant ‘Clarín’ ACA17- 02) SI

Social-ecological systems in the Mediterranean Basin are characterised by high biodiversity and a prolonged cultural influence, leading to the co-evolution of these systems. The unique characteristics of Mediterranean social-ecological systems, current pressures leading to a decline in ecosystem services, and the need for coordinated action are recognised by policies promoting the protection and sustainable use of the region’s heritage. Ecosystem assessments provide valuable information on the capacity of the Mediterranean Basin to ensure the well-being of its population. However, most assessments simplify the complexity of these systems, which may lead to inaccurate ecosystem services supply and flow estimations. This paper uses the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) model to guide an expert consultation that identifies the key characteristics of the Mediterranean social-ecological systems and analyses how these should be included in ecosystem assessments. Data collection was carried out through expert consultation with ecosystem services researchers. Multiple sources of complexity were identified, including the relationship between historical human activities, biodiversity spatio-temporal patterns, as well as the seasonal and long-term variability in ecosystem services. The importance of incorporating this complexity in ecosystem assessments for evidence-based decision-making is identified, suggesting that there is a need to adapt assessment approaches for the Mediterranean Basin social-ecological systems., This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 809988. JVRD was supported by the Government of Asturias and FP7-Marie Curie-COFUND European Commission program (Grant ‘Clarín’ ACA17-02). SdM benefited from a Serra-Húnter Fellowship provided by the Generalitat of Catalonia.

In recent years, the assessment of ecosystem services (ES) supply has been based on the use of Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) data as proxies for spatial representation of ecosystems. Nevertheless, some shortcomings of this method, such as uncertainties derived from generalization of the ecosystem types and assumptions of invariance across spatial scales, indicate the need for new approaches. Such approaches could be aimed at improving knowledge of the relationships between ecosystem services and landscape structure and the spatial characteristics of ES patterns. In this study, we propose an integrative approach that involves the generation and analysis of continuous maps representing the supply of five ES potentially related to the amount of biomass. Five remote sensing images of the Northwestern Iberian Peninsula, obtained with Landsat-5 TM, were used to generate a proxy for net primary production by combining the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) of each image to calculate a ΣNDVI index that could act as a potential indicator of some ecosystem services. This information was combined with three variables – terrain slope, population density and occurrence of protected areas – to produce spatial models for the five ES and eventually a series of five supply maps. Food, materials and energy provision services showed a clustered pattern, with high supply values in flat zones and areas with high population densities. In contrast, mass flow and climate regulation services were more widely distributed throughout the study area. The five ecosystem service patterns were analyzed at different scales by two methods: lacunarity and four term local quadrat variance (4TLQV) analysis. These methods revealed differences in the spatial pattern: lacunarity analysis was useful for detection of scale thresholds at the local level, whereas 4TLQV was more sensitive to scale thresholds at larger spatial levels. Thus, the variance analysis yielded higher values for larger windows sizes, particularly for provisioning services. The results demonstrated the suitability of the proposed approach for the spatially explicit modeling of ecosystem services, avoiding the uncertainty of other assessments such as those based on LULC data, and for the exploratory analysis of ES supply from a spatial point of view.

Context: Agroforestry systems in temperate Europe are known to provide both, provisioning and regulating ecosystem services (ES). Yet, it is poorly understood how these systems affect ES provision at a landscape scale in contrast to agricultural practises. Objectives: This study aimed at developing a novel, spatially explicit model to assess and quantify bundles of provisioning and regulating ES provided by landscapes with and without agroforestry systems and to test the hypothesis that agroforestry landscapes provide higher amounts of regulating ES than landscapes dominated by monocropping. Methods: Focussing on ES that are relevant for agroforestry and agricultural practices, we selected six provisioning and regulating ES biomass production , groundwater recharge , nutrient retention , soil preservation , carbon storage , habitat and gene pool protection . Algorithms for quantifying these services were identified, tested, adapted, and applied in a traditional cherry orchard landscape in Switzerland, as a case study. Eight landscape test sites of 1 km × 1 km, four dominated by agroforestry and four dominated by agriculture, were mapped and used as baseline for the model. Results: We found that the provisioning ES, namely the annual biomass yield, was higher in landscape test sites with agriculture, while the regulating ES were better represented in landscape test sites with agroforestry. The differences were found to be statistically significant for the indicators annual biomass yield, groundwater recharge rate, nitrate leaching, annual carbon sequestration, flowering resources, and share of semi-natural habitats. Conclusions: This approach provides an example for spatially explicit quantification of provisioning and regulating ES and is suitable for comparing different land use scenarii at landscape scale. (c) 2018, Springer Nature B.V. We acknowledge funding through Grant 613520 from the European Commission (Project AGFORWARD, 7th Framework Program).

Forest ecosystems provide a wide range of goods and services to society and host high levels of biodiversity. Nevertheless, forest ecosystem services (ES) are often quantified and assessed using simplified methodologies (e.g., proxy methods based exclusively on Land Use Land Cover maps) that introduce substantial uncertainty in the analysis by ignoring, for instance, the species composition and spatial configuration of the ecosystems studied. In this work we defined and calculated a set of 12 indicators of several ES for the forests of the highly populated region of Catalonia (North-eastern Iberian Peninsula). The indicators combined different sources of information such as forest surveys, ecological model predictions and official statistics, but also included additional land cover information. All ES indicators were aggregated at the municipality level to compare their values and distribution patterns. We assessed spatial trade-offs and synergies among ES, as well as their relationships with a set of socioeconomic, climatic and biodiversity variables using correlation analyses and mixed-effects models. The results suggest a clustering of provisioning and regulating ES in mountainous zones towards the North of the study area. These two types of services showed a high degree of spatial similarity and presented high positive correlations. In contrast, cultural ES showed a more scattered pattern, which included lower elevation areas in the South of the study region. Climatic conditions were the main determinants of the spatial variability in the supply of the different ES, with most indicators being positively associated with precipitation and negatively associated with temperature. In addition, biodiversity (particularly woody species richness) showed positive relations with most of these ES, while socioeconomic variables (such as population density and the percentage employment in agriculture) showed negative associations with most of them. The combination of information from different data sources (including primary data) allowed for a detailed analysis of forest ES, likely removing some of the problems derived from approaches based only on proxy methods. In addition, the use of municipalities as study unit makes results directly relevant to management and planning strategies operating at this scale (e.g., forest management and planning). Funding was obtained from the Catalan Office for Climate Change (OCCC) through project ForESMap, from EU FORESTERRA program (INFORMED project) and from the Spanish government (CGL2013-46808-R, AGL2015-66001-C3-1-R and CGL2014-59742). We also thank the ECOMETAS (CGL2014-53840-REDT) network for support. This study also received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme within the framework of the MultiFUNGtionality Marie Skłodowska-Curie Individual Fellowship (IF-EF) under grant agreement No655815 and from the Generalitat de Catalunya (Serra-Hunter Fellow). JVRD was supported by the Government of Asturias and the FP7-Marie Curie-COFUND program of the European Commission (Grant ‘Clarín’ ACA17-02).

Science and society are increasingly interested in predicting the effects of global change and socio-economic development on natural systems, to ensure maintenance of both ecosystems and human well-being. The Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services has identified the combination of ecological modelling and scenario forecasting as key to improving our understanding of those effects, by evaluating the relationships and feedbacks between direct and indirect drivers of change, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. Using as case study the forests of the Mediterranean basin (complex socio-ecological systems of high social and conservation value), we reviewed the literature to assess (1) what are the modelling approaches most commonly used to predict the condition and trends of biodiversity and ecosystem services under future scenarios of global change, (2) what are the drivers of change considered in future scenarios and at what scales, and (3) what are the nature and ecosystem service indicators most commonly evaluated. Our review shows that forecasting studies make relatively little use of modelling approaches accounting for actual ecological processes and feedbacks between different socio-ecological sectors; predictions are generally made on the basis of a single (mainly climate) or a few drivers of change. In general, there is a bias in the set of nature and ecosystem service indicators assessed. In particular, cultural services and human well-being are greatly underrepresented in the literature. We argue that these shortfalls hamper our capacity to make the best use of predictive tools to inform decision-making in the context of global change. This work was supported by the Spanish Government through the INMODES project (grant number CGL2017-89999-C2-2-R), the ERA-NET FORESTERRA project INFORMED (grant number 29183), and the project Boscos Sans per a una Societat Saludable funded by Obra Social la Caixa (https://obrasociallacaixa.org/). AMO and AA were supported by Spanish Government through the “Juan de la Cierva” fellowship program (IJCI-2016-30349 and IJCI-2016-30049, respectively). JVRD was supported by the Government of Asturias and the FP7-Marie Curie-COFUND program of the European Commission (Grant “Clarín” ACA17-02).

This is a post-peer-review, pre-copyedit version of an article published in Agroforestry Systems. The final authenticated version is available online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10457-017-0132-3 Agroforestry systems are known to provide ecosystem services which differ in quantity and quality from conventional agricultural practices and could enhance rural landscapes. In this study we compared ecosystem services provision of agroforestry and non-agroforestry landscapes in case study regions from three European biogeographical regions: Mediterranean (montado and dehesa), Continental (orchards and wooded pasture) and Atlantic agroforestry systems (chestnut soutos and hedgerows systems). Seven ecosystem service indicators (two provisioning and five regulating services) were mapped, modelled and assessed. Clear variations in amount and provision of ecosystem services were found between different types of agroforestry systems. Nonetheless regulating ecosystems services were improved in all agroforestry landscapes, with reduced nitrate losses, higher carbon sequestration, reduced soil losses, higher functional biodiversity focussed on pollination and greater habitat diversity reflected in a high proportion of semi-natural habitats. The results for provisioning services were inconsistent. While the annual biomass yield and the groundwater recharge rate tended to be higher in agricultural landscapes without agroforestry systems, the total biomass stock was reduced. These broad relationships were observed within and across the case study regions regardless of the agroforestry type or biogeographical region. Overall our study underlines the positive influence of agroforestry systems on the supply of regulating services and their role to enhance landscape structure We acknowledge funding through Grant 613520 from the European Commission (Project AGFORWARD, 7th Framework Program), the Xunta de Galicia, Consellería de Cultura, Educación e Ordenación Universitaria (“Programa de axudas á etapa posdoutoral DOG no. 122, 29/06/2016 p.27443, exp: ED481B 2016/071-0”), the Forest Research Center strategic project (PEst OE/AGR/UI0239/2014) and the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology through the contract SFRH/BD/52691/2014 SI

The implementation of the Ecosystem Services (ES) framework (including supply and demand) should be based on accurate spatial assessments to make it useful for land planning or environmental management. Despite the inherent dependence of ES assessments on the spatial resolution at which they are conducted, the studies analyzing these effects on ES supply and their relationships are still scarce. To study the influence of the spatial level of analysis on ES patterns and on the relationships among different ES, we selected seven indicators representing ES supply and three variables that describe forest cover and biodiversity for Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula). These indicators were estimated at three different scales: local, municipality and county. Our results showed differences in the ES patterns among the levels of analysis. The higher levels (municipality/county) removed part of the local heterogeneity of the patterns observed at the local scale, particularly for ES indicators characterized by a finely grained, scattered distribution. The relationships between ES indicators were generally similar at the three levels. However, some negative relationships (potential trade-offs) that were detected at the local level changed to positive (and significant) relationships at municipality and county. Spatial autocorrelation showed similarities between patterns at local and municipality levels, but differences with county level. We conclude that the use of high-resolution spatial data is preferable whenever available, in particular when identifying hotspots or trade-offs/synergies is of primary interest. When the main objective is describing broad patterns of ES, intermediate levels (e.g., municipality) are also adequate, as they conserve many of the properties of assessments conducted at finer scales, allowing the integration of data sources and, usually, being more directly relevant for policy-making. In conclusion, our results warn against the uncritical use of coarse (aggregated) spatial ES data and indicators in strategies for land use planning and forest conservation. We thank to the volunteers fromthe Catalan Ornithological Institute (ICO) and Dr. Miquel de Cáceres Ainsa for providing data for the analyses presented in this study. Funding was obtained from the Catalan Office for Climate Change (OCCC) through project ForESMap, from EU FORESTERRA program (INFORMED project) and from the Spanish government (CGL2013-46808-R and AGL2015-66001-C3-1-R). JVRD was supported by the Government of Asturias and the FP7-Marie Curie- COFUND program of the European Commission (Grant ‘Clarín’ ACA17- 02). We also thank the ECOMETAS (CGL2014-53840-REDT) network for support. This study also received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme within the framework of the MultiFUNGtionality Marie Skłodowska-Curie Individual Fellowship (IF-EF) under grant agreement No. 655815 and from the Generalitat de Catalunya (Serra-Hunter Fellow grant number UdL-AG-203). We thank Gabriel Borras and Gemma Cantos (OCCC) for useful discussion during the elaboration of this work. We are very grateful to all persons who made the two Spanish Forest Inventories possible and, especially, to their main coordinators, Ramon Villaescusa (IFN2) and Jose Antonio Villanueva (IFN3). We also thank two anonymous reviewers who helped us improve the quality of the manuscript.

International audience; The study assessed the economic performance of marketable ecosystem services (ES) (biomass production) and non-marketable ecosystem services and dis-services (groundwater, nutrient loss, soil loss, carbon sequestration, pollination deficit) in 11 contrasting European landscapes dominated by agroforestry land use compared to business as usual agricultural practice. The productivity and profitability of the farming activities and the associated ES were quantified using environmental modelling and economic valuation. After accounting for labour and machinery costs the financial value of the outputs of Mediterranean agroforestry systems tended to be greater than the corresponding agricultural system; but in Atlantic and Continental regions the agricultural system tended to be more profitable. However, when economic values for the associated ES were included, the relative profitability of agroforestry increased. Agroforestry landscapes: (i) were associated to reduced externalities of pollution from nutrient and soil losses, and (ii) generated additional benefits from carbon capture and storage and thus generated an overall higher economic gain. Our findings underline how a market system that includes the values of broader ES would result in land use change favouring multifunctional agroforestry. Imposing penalties for dis-services or payments for services would reflect their real world prices and would make agroforestry a more financially profitable system.

Ecosystem services research has become important in fields such as ecology and land planning in recent years. Several authors have emphasized the need to evaluate these services from a spatial perspective. The spatial distribution of the resources and processes that provide ecosystems have also been considered in relation to landscape. Because ecosystem services are provided by different ecological processes, the spatial scales probably also differ; this aspect may be of interest for analyzing the provision flow. In this study, we analyzed the spatial pattern of six services that are important in the study area (in Galicia, NW Spain). We first identified the landscape elements associated with these services, defining them as ecosystem service providers (ESP). To represent the ecosystem, we initially used cartographic information based on land use/land cover (LULC) and then generated two different raster ESP data sets: (i) binary and (ii) greyscale. We then explored the spatial patterns of ESP by lacunarity analysis, which is often used to study fractal elements, and by selecting landscape metrics. The results suggest that the spatial patterns of ecosystem services occur at different scales. We observed a strong relationship between lacunarity values and the different distribution patterns of ESP. Multiscale effects were also associated with changes in lacunarity values. Application of different spatial analysis techniques to study the relationships between landscape structure and service providers should provide a better understanding of service provision and enable evaluation of the ecological integrity of landscapes.

Understanding the influence of environmental factors on the distribution of tree species is essential for developing management actions at regional level. We computed species distribution models for six European tree species to determine their potential niche in the Spanish Atlantic region, where deciduous forests are relatively well preserved. We used data from the national Forest Inventory and topo-climatic and soil variables to construct distribution models by the Generalized Linear Model procedure. The main factors found to determine the presence of the selected species were minimum winter temperature and mineral fertility of soils. Suitable habitats for Quercus petraea and F. sylvatica were mainly high-altitude areas with low minimum temperatures. In contrast, Q. robur and C. sativa were restricted to low altitudes and warmer conditions. Betula pubescens was not influenced by the elevation, probably because it is adapted to Atlantic conditions, and distribution of this species was associated with low fertility soils. Although the submediterranean Q. pyrenaica was positively influenced by the slope, model performance was poor for this species, possibly because of the truncated environmental range of the species in the study area. The findings suggest that temperature rather than moisture is shaping the distribution of deciduous trees at the southern limit of the Atlantic biogeographic region. We also note that the strong elevational difference between the warm coast and the cold mountains may determine the geographical disjunction between Q. robur and Q. petraea in southern Europe.