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The City of Stockholm is conducting a scenario planning exercise to explore where potential future office development should be planned: closer to the city centre as in the status quo, in peripheral hubs on the outskirts of the city, or dispersed throughout multiple neighbourhoods. To support this exercise, this paper models these three scenarios using a nested work location and dynamic activity-based scheduling model. Our model predicts that high-income individuals have the highest consumer welfare benefits and are over-represented as workers in all scenarios. Developing more central office space will likely reinforce existing geographical patterns of income inequality in Stockholm; developing peripheral or dispersed office space, especially in the south of the city, will challenge these patterns. However, the model also illustrates a tension between the goals of equity and the environment. By taking advantage of existing transit infrastructure and congestion patterns, more central office development will result in lower vehicle kilometers travelled and lower car mode share for commuting than more peripheral or dispersed development., QC 20240830

QC 20240102

Syftet med denna rapport är att redovisa resultat och slutsatser från en enkätstudie med intressenter inom prognosmodeller för långväga resande (resande över 100 km) som genomfördes i september 2023. Många enkätsvar är i linje med att en framtida modell behövs för att göra ungefär samma saker som idag, att den nuvarande modellen har brister, och att bra data att skatta modellen är svåra att få tag på. Mer intressant är förslag på förändringar i modellen eller dess användning. En sådan är hur vi ska definiera en långväga resa. Det finns andra, alternativa definitioner än ”längre än tio mil” som har mer med resans ärende, start- och målpunkt eller andra egenskaper att göra. Det finns två kommentarer, i synnerhet, med potential att påverka modellansatsen. Den första är att en prognos för ett vardags- eller årsmedeldygn inte nödvändigtvis är det mest intressanta. På vissa ställen är årsvariationen stor och dimensionerande, till exempel för turismresor, medan på andra kan dygns- och veckovariation vara viktig att förstå. Målbaserade scenarier och backcasting nämns också. En annan typ av modell än dagens Sampers skulle kunna bidra på ett bättre sätt till att hitta lämpliga åtgärder och hjälpa till med att hitta lösningar på problem snarare än att fokusera på att räkna på effekterna av åtgärderna. Det stora arbetet är att underhålla indata och framtidsscenarier av nätverk och markanvändning. Vi skulle kunna verka för att ha en gemensam bas av indata, lämpligen också öppen för extern forskning och utveckling, som sedan kan användas till olika modeller beroende på vilken fråga som ställs. När det gäller kompetens tolkar vi intervjusvaren som att den behöver stärkas både bland användare så att resultaten kan genereras och tolkas med förståelse av orsakssamband, och bland modellutvecklare. Samtidigt upplever en del respondenter att systemet är tungarbetat och det används i praktiken mest för ett relativt fåtal scenarioanalyser. Ibland skulle det nog vara mer användbart med ett, The aim of this report is to report results and conclusions from a survey study with stakeholders within forecast models for long-distance travel (travel over 100 km) that was carried out in September 2023. Many survey responses are in line with the fact that a future model is needed to do roughly the same things as today, that the current model has flaws, and that good data to estimate the model is hard to come by. More interesting are suggestions for changes to the model or its use. One such is how we should define a long-distance trip. There are other, alternative definitions than "further than one hundred kilometres" that have more to do with the purpose of the journey, the origin and destination point or other characteristics. There are two comments, in particular, with the potential to influence the model approach. The first is that a forecast for a weekday or annual average day is not necessarily the most interesting. In some places, the annual variation is large and dimensioning, for example for tourism trips, while in others understanding the daily and weekly variation can be important. Target-based scenarios and back casting are also mentioned. A different type of model than today's Sampers could contribute in a better way to finding appropriate measures and helping to find solutions to problems rather than focusing on calculating the effects of the measures. The major work is to maintain input data and future scenarios of network and land use. We could work to have a common base of input data, preferably also open to external research and development, which can then be used for different models depending on the question being asked. In terms of competence, we interpret the interview responses as needing to be strengthened both among users so that the results can be generated and interpreted with an understanding of causal relationships, and among model developers. At the same time, some respondents feel that the system is heavy-duty and that it is used in, QC 20231115, Förstudie kring etablering av forskningsprojekt för prognosmetodik

Innehållsförteckning Inledning Utgångspunkter för stads- och regionplanering Introduktion Hall P. (2002). Urban and Regional Planning, pp. 1-9. London: RoutledgeCampell S., Fainstein S. S., (2012). Introduction In Readings in planning theory, pp. 1-16. Blackwell,Cambridge, Mass. Taylor N. (1998). Urban planning theory since 1945. London: SAGE. (19 sid)Allmendinger P. (2017). Planning theory, pp. 5-6, 16, 35-50. Basingstoke: Palgrave Sayer A. (2010). Methods in social science. A realist approach. pp. 16-19, 44-49. London: Routledge. Yiftachel O. (1989). Towards a new type of urban planning theories. Environment and planning B: Planning and design, 16, 23-39 Thrift N. J. (1983). On the determination of social action in space and time. Environment and planningD, 1, 23-57. Utmaning 1: Vilken kunskap är relevant i en planeringsprocess? Introduktion Rydin Y. (2007). Re-Examining the role of knowledge within planning theory. Planning theory , 6 (1),52-68. Easton D. (1965). A framework for political analysis. Englewood Cliffs, NJ. USA: Prentice-Hall, Inc.) Parsons T. (1968) “Social Systems”. International Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences (pp 458-473).New York: Macmillan.) Utmaning 2: Hur kan komplex kunskap integreras i en planeringsorganisation och bidra tillinstitutionell kapacitet? Introduktion Healey P. (1998). Building institutional capacity through collaborative approaches to urban planning.Environment and planning A. 30, 1531-1646 Feitelson, E. I. (2011). Issue Generating Assessment: Bridging the gap between evaluation theory andpractice? Planning Theory and Practice, 12(4), 549-568. Adolphson M. and Jonsson D. (2020). Uncover the theory practice gap in Swedish transportplanning: an interdisciplinary approach. European Planning Studies. 28(11), 2237-2260.) Utmaning 3: Hur kan (politiska) värderingar integreras i en planeringsprocess Introduktion Habermas J. (2007[1996]). Civil society and political public spheres. In C Calhoun, J Gerties, J Moody,S Pfaff and I Vir, Antologin utgör ett diskussions- och undervisningsmaterial för en workshopserie (i samverkan med Region Stockholm 2022) i fem delar med avseende på följande teman:Utgångspunkter för stads- och regionplaneringUtmaning 1: Vilken kunskap är relevant i en planeringsprocess?Utmaning 2: Hur kan komplex kunskap integreras i en planeringsorganisation och bidra tillinstitutionell kapacitet?IntroduktionUtmaning 3: Hur kan (politiska) värderingar integreras i en planeringsprocessUtmaning 4: Hur kan komplex expertkunskap integreras i demokratisk/kommunikativplanering?QC 20230116

This paper presents a dynamic discrete choice model (DDCM) for daily activity-travel planning. A daily activity-travel pattern is constructed from a sequence of decisions of when, where, why, and how to travel. Individuals' preferences for activity-travel patterns are described by the sum of the utility of all travel and activity episodes in that pattern, but components of the utility functions, such as travel times, may be stochastic. In each decision stage, individuals act as if they maximized the expected utility of the remainder of the day. The DDCM-model presented allows for a detailed treatment of timing decision consistent with other choice dimensions, respects time-space constraints, and enables the inclusion of explicitly modeled uncertainties in, for example, travel time. In a case study, a model for daily planning of activity and travel on workdays is estimated whereby individuals can perform any number of trips that each is a combination of one of 1,240 locations, four modes, and six activities. Simulation results indicate that the model within sample accurately replicates timing decisions, trip lengths, and the distributions of the number of trips, tours, and trips per tour., QC 20200309

This study presents a transport model to better model cycling demand. The model improves modelling of cycling in several ways compared to a conventional transport model. First, it uses a detailed bicycle network containing information about existing bicycle infrastructure. Second, generalised cost measures based on different bicycle route choice models are calculated and compared to evaluate how to best represent the impact of bicycle infrastructure in the model. Third, the model utilizes a refined zone system with smaller zones of size 250 m x 250 m. Using these smaller zones, more short-distance tours are included in the model, and these are predominantly walking and cycling trips. Fourth, the model considers cycling also as an access mode choice to public transport. Therefore, the model treats cycling and public transport as both competing and complementary modes. Results show that the model captures detailed individual heterogeneity in cycling demand for different trip purposes. Impacts of bicycle infrastructure, land use characteristics and individual/household socio-demographics are investigated. Detailed individual level travel time and generalised cost are derived for cyclists of different socio-demographics. The result highlights the importance of choosing a good measure of generalised cost, given that different bicycle route choice models result in different effects of bicycle infrastructure. In future applications, the model can be used to evaluate proposed bicycle investments regarding their impact on link flow, bicycle route choice, modal shift and generation of completely new tours. The model can also be a powerful tool in a cost-benefit analysis of bicycle investments., QC 20200504

QC 20190514

Standard cost-benefit analysis (CBA) does not take into account induced demand due to relocation triggered by infrastructure investments. Using an integrated transport and land-use model calibrated for the Stockholm region, we explore whether this has any significant impact on the CBA outcome, and in particular on the relative ranking of rail and road investments. Our results indicate that induced demand has a larger impact on the benefit of rail investments than on the benefit of road investments. The effect on the relative ranking is still limited for two reasons. First, the number of houses that are built over 20 30 years is limited in comparison to the size of the existing housing stock. Second, the location of most of the new houses is not affected by any single infrastructure investment, since the latter has a marginal effect on total accessibility in a city with a mature transport system. A second aim of this paper is to investigate the robustness of the relative CBA ranking of rail and road investments, with respect to the planning policy in the region 25 years ahead. While the results suggest that this ranking is surprisingly robust, there is a tendency that the net benefit of rail investments is more sensitive to the future planning policy than road investments. Our results also underscore that the future land-use planning in the region in general has a considerably stronger impact on accessibility and car use than individual road or rail investments have., QC 20150326

"What if the renewal of Rinkeby-Kista, Stockholm, were to make it part of a 2 kW Society?" Renewal of the city district's 25 000 flats from the 1970s is due and a network organisation, "Järva Boost" is established. A cross-disciplinary team of KTH researchers develop a computerised model to simulate energy efficiency gains resulting from actors' decisions. Inputs are measures that building owners, energy providers, residents, planners etc. might propose. They can be technical institutional or socio-cultural. Outputs are energy use in kW/person and CO2 emissions. To guide model development, an "ideal type" usage situation is outlined. The energy system is modelled "upstream" from end use, to identify larger efficiency potentials. The model interface is designed to enable the "staging" of actors' negotiations: The manager influences the properties of the climate shell, the residents the energy used for cooking, and the energy provider the primary energy mix. The concepts of "Household Activities System" and "Energy Usage Systems" give theoretical framework for modelling. The former conceptualises residents' activities, the latter the technology providing services to the activity. Simulations give contrasting outcomes: "business as usual" vs. "most favourable". Used in practice, simulations might simplify negotiations and coming to agreement., Part of Proceedings ISBN 9788890357428.QC 20220319

QC 20231229

During the last decades, many activity-based models have been developed in the literature. However, especially in random utility based models timing decisions are often treated poorly or inconsistently with other choice dimensions. In this paper we show how dynamic discrete choice can be used to overcome this problem. In the proposed model, trip decisions are made sequentially in time, starting at home in the morning and ending at home in the evening. At each decision stage, the utility of an alternative is the sum of the one-stage utility of the action and the expected future utility in the reached state. The model generates full daily activity schedules with any number of trips that each is a combination of one of 6 activities, 1240 locations and 4 modes. The ability to go from all to all locations makes evaluating the model very time consuming and sampling of alternatives were therefore used for estimation. The model is estimated on travel diaries and simulation results indicates that it is able to reproduce timing decisions, trip lengths and distribution of the number trips within sample. To explain when people perform different activities, two sets of parameters are used: firstly, the utility of being at home varies depending on the time of day; and secondly, constants determine the utility of arriving to work at specific times. This was enough to also obtain a good distribution of the starting times for free-time activities., QC 20171214

QS 20120327

QS 20120327. Swedish Govermental Agency for Innovation SYstems, the Swedish National Road Administration

QS 20120327. Swedish Governmental Agency for Innovation Systems