1. Constraining emission estimates of carbon monoxide using a perturbed emissions ensemble with observations: a focus on Beijing
- Author
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Christina Hood, Olalekan A.M. Popoola, Qiang Zhang, Alexander T. Archibald, Le Yuan, David Carruthers, Roderic L. Jones, Huan Liu, Zhaofeng Lv, Yuan, L [0000-0002-4282-0459], Popoola, OAM [0000-0003-2390-8436], Jones, RL [0000-0002-6761-3966], Liu, H [0000-0002-2217-0591], Archibald, AT [0000-0001-9302-4180], Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository, Yuan, Le [0000-0002-4282-0459], Popoola, Olalekan A.M. [0000-0003-2390-8436], Jones, Roderic L. [0000-0002-6761-3966], Liu, Huan [0000-0002-2217-0591], and Archibald, Alexander T. [0000-0001-9302-4180]
- Subjects
Atmospheric Science ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis ,Sample (statistics) ,010501 environmental sciences ,Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law ,Atmospheric sciences ,01 natural sciences ,Article ,chemistry.chemical_compound ,Air quality model ,Beijing ,Tropospheric ozone ,Low-cost sensors ,Air quality index ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Pollutant ,Emissions uncertainty ,Atmospheric dispersion modeling ,Pollution ,Ensemble simulations ,chemistry ,Network measurements ,Environmental science ,Emissions inventory ,Focus (optics) ,Carbon monoxide - Abstract
Funder: Tsinghua University Initiative Scientific Research Program, Funder: National Centre for Atmospheric Science; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000662, Funder: Met Office; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000847, The reliability of air quality simulations has a strong dependence on the input emissions inventories, which are associated with various sources of uncertainties, particularly in regions undergoing rapid emission changes where inventories can be ‘out of date’ almost as soon as they are compiled. This work provides a new methodology for updating emissions inventories by source sector using air quality ensemble simulations and observations from a dense monitoring network. It is adopted to determine the short-term trends in carbon monoxide (CO) emissions, an important pollutant and precursor to tropospheric ozone, in a study area centred around Beijing following the implementation of clean air policies. We sample the uncertainties associated with using an a priori emissions inventory for the year 2013 in air quality simulations of 2016, using an atmospheric dispersion model combined with a perturbed emissions ensemble (PEE), which is constructed based on expert-elicited uncertainty ranges for individual source sectors in the inventory. By comparing the simulation outputs with observational constraints, we are able to constrain the emissions of key source sectors relative to those in the a priori emissions inventory. From 2013 to 2016, we find a 44–88% reduction in the transport sector emissions (0.92–4.4×105 Mg in 2016) and a minimum 61% decrease in residential sector emissions (
- Published
- 2021