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By the mid-20th Century, giant gartersnakes (Thamnophis gigas) had lost more than 90% of their Central Valley marsh habitat and were extirpated from more than two-thirds of their range. This massive habitat loss led to their inclusion in the inaugural list of rare species under the California Endangered Species Act (CESA). Listing under the CESA provided giant gartersnakes legal protection and mechanisms for recovery, and subsequent listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (federal ESA) further fortified these protections. But how effective has listing under these endangered species acts (ESAs) been at achieving their goal of giant gartersnake recovery? Herein, we review relevant aspects of giant gartersnake ecology, illustrate how listing has benefited giant gartersnakes and what challenges have been faced in slowing declines and recovering populations, and chart a course toward improved conservation, management, and recovery of giant gartersnakes. Although listing as threatened under both state and federal ESAs has not yet achieved recovery of giant gartersnakes, the increased knowledge gained and mechanisms for protecting giant gartersnake habitat on private and public lands developed over the past 50 years has improved conservation of this endemic California snake.

Occupancy models provide a reliable method of estimating species distributions while accounting for imperfect detectability. The cost of accounting for false absences is that detection and nondetection surveys typically require repeated visits to a site or multiple-observer techniques. More efficient methods of collecting data to estimate detection probabilities would allow additional sites to be surveyed for the same amount of effort, which would support more precise estimation of covariate effects to improve inference about underlying ecological processes. Time-to-detection surveys allow the estimation of detection probability based on a single site visit by one observer, and therefore might be an efficient technique for herpetological occupancy studies. We evaluated the use of time-to-detection surveys to estimate the occupancy of pond-breeding amphibians at Point Reyes National Seashore, California, USA, including variables that affected detection rates and the probability of occurrence. We f...

Desert amphibians are limited to exploiting ephemeral resources and aestivating or to inhabiting scarce refuges of permanent water, such as springs. Understanding how amphibians use these resources is essential for their conservation. Dixie Valley Toads (Anaxyrus williamsi) are precinctive to a small system of cold and hot springs in the Dixie Valley, Nevada, USA. The toads have been petitioned for listing under the US Endangered Species Act, and information about how they use terrestrial and aquatic resources will help managers to conserve the toads and identify threats like geothermal energy development that might affect these toads. We used radiotelemetry to study the seasonal home ranges, movements, and habitat associations of Dixie Valley Toads in autumn 2018 and spring 2019. We found that toads were very closely associated with water in both seasons, with most observations occurring in water, especially for males in spring and all toads in the autumn. Even when found in terrestrial habitat, toads were a median distance of 4.2 m (95% credible interval = 3.3–5.3) from water; 95% of the time in spring and autumn, toads were within 14 m of water. Dixie Valley Toad habitat selection indicated a similar pattern, with selection in both spring and autumn for locations closer to water and for warmer water and substrates than at nearby available locations. In autumn, toads also avoided bare ground and terrestrial graminoids. Dixie Valley Toads selected brumation sites in, over (within dense vegetation), or near water, often near springs where water depths and temperatures are likely stable through the winter. The reliance of Dixie Valley Toads on water in spring, autumn, and during brumation suggests that alteration to historical flows and water temperatures are likely to affect the toads. Changes to the hydrothermal environment when toads are brumating could be particularly detrimental, potentially killing inactive toads.

Demographic models enhance understanding of drivers of population growth and inform conservation efforts to prevent population declines and extinction. For species with complex life histories, however, parameterizing demographic models is challenging because some life stages can be difficult to study directly. Integrated population models (IPMs) empower researchers to estimate vital rates for organisms that have cryptic or widely dispersing early life stages by integrating multiple demographic data sources. For a stream‐inhabiting frog (Rana boylii) that is declining through much of its range in Oregon and California, USA, we collected egg‐mass counts and capture–mark–recapture data on adults from two populations in California to fit IPMs that estimate adult abundance and the survival rate of both marked and unobserved life stages. Estimates of adult abundance based on long‐term monitoring of egg‐mass counts showed that study populations fluctuated greatly inter‐annually but were stable at longer timescales (i.e., decades). Adult female survival during 5–6 yr of capture–mark–recapture study periods was nearly equal in each population. Survival rate of R. boylii eggs to the subadult stage is low on average (0.002) but highly variable among years depending on post‐oviposition stream flow. Population viability analysis showed that survival of adult and subadult life stages has the greatest proportional effect on population growth; the survival of egg and tadpole life stages, however, is more malleable by management interventions. For example, simulations showed head‐starting of tadpoles, salvaging stranded egg masses, and limiting aseasonal pulsed flows could dramatically reduce the threat of extirpation. This study demonstrates the value of integrating multiple demographic data sources to construct models of population dynamics in species with complex life histories.

Occupancy methods propelled the quantitative study of species distributions forward by separating the observation process, or the imperfect detectability of species, from the ecological processes of interest governing species distributions. Occupancy studies come at a cost, however: the collection of additional data to account for nondetections at sites where the species is present. The most common occupancy designs (repeated‐measures designs) require repeat visits to sites or the use of multiple observers or detection methods. Time‐to‐detection methods have been identified as a potentially efficient alternative, requiring only one visit to each site by a single observer. A comparison of time‐to‐detection methods to repeated‐measures designs for visual encounter surveys would allow researchers to evaluate whether time‐to‐detection methods might be appropriate for their study system and can inform optimal survey design. We collected time‐to‐detection data during two different repeated‐measures design occupancy surveys for four amphibians and compared the performance of time‐to‐detection methods to the other designs using the location (potential bias) and precision of posterior distributions for occurrence parameters. We further used results of time‐to‐detection surveys to optimize survey design. Time‐to‐detection methods performed best for species that are widespread and have high detection probabilities and rates, but performed less well for cryptic species with lower probability of occurrence or whose detection was strongly affected by survey conditions. In all cases, single surveys were most efficient in terms of person‐hours expended, but under some conditions the survey duration required to achieve high detection probabilities would be prohibitively long for a single survey. Regardless of occupancy survey design, time‐to‐detection methods provide important information that can be used to optimize surveys, allowing researchers and resource managers to efficiently achieve monitoring and conservation goals. Collecting time‐to‐detection data while conducting repeated‐measures occupancy surveys requires only small modifications to field methods but could have large benefits in terms of time spent surveying in the long term.

Conversion and fragmentation of wildlife habitat often leads to smaller and isolated populations and can reduce a species' ability to disperse across the landscape. As a consequence, genetic drift can quickly lower genetic variation and increase vulnerability to extirpation. For species of conservation concern, quantification of population size and connectivity can clarify the influence of genetic drift in local populations and provides important information for conservation management and recovery strategies. Here, we used genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data and capture-mark-recapture methods to evaluate the genetic diversity and demography within seven focal sites of the endangered San Francisco gartersnake (Thamnophis sirtalis tetrataenia), a species affected by alteration and isolation of wetland habitats throughout its distribution. The primary goals were to determine the population structure and degree of genetic isolation among T. s. tetrataenia populations and estimate effective size and population abundance within sites to better understand the present and future importance of genetic drift. We also used temporally sampled datasets to examine the magnitude of genetic change over time. We found moderate population genetic structure throughout the San Francisco Peninsula that partitions sites into northern and southern regional clusters. Point estimates of both effective size and population abundance were generally small (≤ 100) for a majority of the sites, and estimates were particularly low in the northern populations. Genetic analyses of temporal datasets indicated an increase in genetic differentiation, especially for the most geographically isolated sites, and decreased genetic diversity over time in at least one site (Pacifica). Our results suggest that drift-mediated processes as a function of small population size and reduced connectivity from neighboring populations may decrease diversity and increase differentiation. Improving genetic diversity and connectivity among T. s. tetrataenia populations could promote persistence of this endangered snake.

The growth rate of reptiles is plastic and often varies among individuals, populations, and years in response to environmental conditions. For an imperiled species, the growth rate of individual animals is an important component of demographic models, and changes in individual growth rates might precede changes in abundance. We analyzed a long-term dataset on the growth of Giant Gartersnakes (Thamnophis gigas) to characterize spatial and temporal variability and evaluate potential environmental predictors of growth. We collected data on the growth in snout–vent length (SVL) of Giant Gartersnakes over 22 yr (1995–2016) from eight sites distributed throughout the Sacramento Valley of California, USA. The von Bertalanffy growth curves indicated male Giant Gartersnakes grew faster toward shorter, asymptotic SVL than did females. Nearly equal variability in growth was attributable to differences among years and among sites. From 2003–2016 we collected data on precipitation, temperature, and the abunda...

Faced with a nascent introduction of a non-native species, conservationists need to quickly determine how a population performs in its new environment. Although correlative models can predict environmental suitability at a coarse scale, they often neglect short-term climatic variability, instead relying on long-term averages. Accurately projecting the fate of any particular introduction requires demographic data on how a population responds to a novel environment. The recent introduction of watersnakes (genus Nerodia) poses a risk to California’s already imperiled aquatic vertebrate fauna. Despite inhabiting a seemingly suitable climate, a non-native Nerodia sipedon population in central California is likely to have been affected by a prolonged extreme drought from 2012 to 2015. We studied the only known population of N. sipedon in California for 3 years from 2013 to 2015, and estimated its abundance and annual survival. Its abundance declined from a peak of 218 (95% Credible Interval 149–313) in August 2013 to 97 (80–119) in July 2015. Annual survival of N. sipedon from 2013 to 2014 (0.23, 0.13–0.39) and from 2014 to 2015 (0.29, 0.18–0.41) was lower than survival estimates reported from native populations. Snake body condition, the abundance of large adult females, and prey availability all declined throughout the study. We conclude that the population of N. sipedon declined from 2013 to 2015, likely due to decreasing habitat and prey availability from the prolonged regional drought. This study highlights the importance of the effect of climatic extremes on the trajectory of introduced populations in a novel environment.

Conservation-reliant species require perpetual management by humans to persist. But do species that persist largely in human-dominated landscapes actually require conditions maintained by humans? Because most extant populations of giant gartersnakes (Thamnophis gigas) inhabit the highly modified rice agricultural regions of the Sacramento Valley, we sought to evaluate whether giant gartersnakes are indeed a conservation-reliant species dependent on maintenance of rice agriculture and its infrastructure for their continued existence. Specifically, we examined the extent to which giant gartersnakes use rice fields themselves, and whether survival of adult giant gartersnakes was influenced by the amount of rice grown near their home ranges and daily movements. We found that although giant gartersnakes only use rice fields minimally and then only between mid-June and early September, their survival was lower when less rice agriculture was available near the areas they inhabited. Survival was particularly low in early spring, when giant gartersnakes emerge from brumation but rice fields are not yet flooded. The incongruity between the phenology of rice growing and giant gartersnake foraging requirements suggests that although giant gartersnakes are reliant on the rice agroecosystem, rice agriculture is likely suboptimal habitat for giant gartersnakes. Giant gartersnakes’ reliance on the rice agroecosystem challenges the notion of preservation-based conservation, but provides opportunities for win-win scenarios benefitting both rice farmers and giant gartersnakes. Our study highlights that in addition to land use, the timing of land management might be crucial for conservation-reliant species. Keywords: Agroecology, California, Giant gartersnake, Mortality, Survival, Thamnophis gigas

Given limited resources for managing invasive species, traditional survey methods may not be feasible to implement at a regional scale. Environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling has proven to be an effective method for detecting some invasive species, but comparisons between the detection probability of eDNA and traditional survey methods using modern occupancy modeling methods are rare. We developed a qPCR assay to detect two species of watersnake (Nerodia fasciata and Nerodia sipedon) introduced to California, USA, and we compared the efficacy of eDNA and aquatic trapping. We tested 3-9 water samples each from 30 sites near the known range of N. fasciata, and 61 sites near the known range of N. sipedon. We also deployed aquatic funnel traps at a subset of sites for each species. We detected N. fasciata eDNA in three of nine water samples from just one site, but captured N. fasciata in traps at three of ten sites. We detected N. sipedon eDNA in five of six water samples from one site, which was also the only site of nine at which this species was captured in traps. Traditional trapping surveys had a higher probability of detecting watersnakes than eDNA surveys, and both survey methods had higher detection probability for N. sipedon than N. fasciata. Occupancy models that integrated both trapping and eDNA surveys estimated that 5 sites (95% Credible Interval: 4-10) of 91 were occupied by watersnakes (both species combined), although snakes were only detected at four sites (three for N. fasciata, one for N. sipedon). Our study shows that despite the many successes of eDNA surveys, traditional sampling methods can have higher detection probability for some species. We recommend those tasked with managing species invasions explicitly compare eDNA and traditional survey methods in an occupancy framework to inform their choice of the best method for detecting nascent populations.

Conservation practitioners must contend with an increasing array of threats that affect biodiversity. Citizen scientists can provide timely and expansive information for addressing these threats across large scales, but their data may contain sampling biases. We used randomization procedures to account for possible sampling biases in opportunistically reported citizen science data to identify species' sensitivities to human land use. We analyzed 21,044 records of 143 native reptile and amphibian species reported to the Carolina Herp Atlas from North Carolina and South Carolina between 1 January 1990 and 12 July 2014. Sensitive species significantly associated with natural landscapes were 3.4 times more likely to be legally protected or treated as of conservation concern by state resource agencies than less sensitive species significantly associated with human-dominated landscapes. Many of the species significantly associated with natural landscapes occurred primarily in habitats that had been nearly eradicated or otherwise altered in the Carolinas, including isolated wetlands, longleaf pine savannas, and Appalachian forests. Rare species with few reports were more likely to be associated with natural landscapes and 3.2 times more likely to be legally protected or treated as of conservation concern than species with at least 20 reported occurrences. Our results suggest that opportunistically reported citizen science data can be used to identify sensitive species and that species currently restricted primarily to natural landscapes are likely at greatest risk of decline from future losses of natural habitat. Our approach demonstrates the usefulness of citizen science data in prioritizing conservation and in helping practitioners address species declines and extinctions at large extents.

The potential for extirpation of extremely small populations (ESPs) is high due to their vulnerability to demographic and environmental stochasticity and negative impacts of human activity. We argue that conservation actions that could aid ESPs are sometimes delayed because of a fear of failure. In human psychology, the fear of failure is composed of several distinct cognitive elements, including “uncertainty about the future” and “upsetting important others.” Uncertainty about the future is often driven by information obstacles in conservation: information is either not easily shared among practitioners or information is lacking. Whereas, fear of upsetting important others can be due to apprehension about angering constituents, peers, funders, and other stakeholders. We present several ways to address these fears in hopes of improving the conservation process. We describe methods for increased information sharing and improved decision-making in the face of uncertainty, and recommend a shift in focus to cooperative actions and improving methods for evaluating success. Our hope is that by tackling stumbling blocks due to the apprehension of failure, conservation and management organizations can take steps to move from fear to action.

© 2016 Elsevier Ltd Understanding how traits affect species responses to threats like habitat loss may help prevent extinctions. This may be especially true for understudied taxa for which we have little data to identify declines before it is too late to intervene. We used a metric derived from citizen science data on snake occurrences to determine which traits were most correlated with species' sensitivity to human land use. We found that snake species that feed primarily on vertebrates, that use a high proportion of aquatic habitats, and that have small geographic ranges occurred in more natural and less human-dominated landscapes. In contrast, body size, clutch (or litter) size, the degree of exposure to human-dominated landscapes, reproductive mode, habitat specialization, and whether a species was venomous or not had less effect on their sensitivity to human land use. Our results extend previous findings that higher trophic position is correlated with extinction risk in many vertebrates by showing that snake species that feed primarily on vertebrates are more sensitive to human land use – a primary driver of extinction. It is likely that conversion of natural landscapes for human land use alters biotic communities, causing losses of important trophic groups, especially in aquatic and riparian communities. Practitioners should therefore prioritize preserving aquatic habitat and natural landscapes with intact biotic communities that can support species at higher trophic levels, as well as focus monitoring on populations of range-restricted species.

Northern Watersnakes, Nerodia sipedon, have been introduced into California's Central Valley and pose an important new challenge for the management of biodiversity in the state's already greatly distressed freshwater ecosystems. Nonnative watersnakes will likely compete with federally threatened Giant Gartersnakes, Thamnophis gigas, and prey on native amphibians and fish, including young salmonids, many of which are imperiled. We used three types of aquatic funnel traps and three different methods to estimate the abundance and density of N. sipedon in a small wetland in Roseville, California. Capture rates did not differ significantly among the three trap types but snakes captured in large box funnel traps were nearly 300 mm longer on average than those captured in minnow traps. Our estimates of the abundance of N. sipedon in our 2-ha trapping area were similar for the mark–recapture model, Leslie depletion curve, and the actual number of snakes removed over 57 days (112.4–119 individuals; approx...

© 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS. The fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) has caused the greatest known wildlife pandemic, infecting over 500 amphibian species. It remains unclear why some host species decline from disease-related mortality whereas others persist. We introduce a conceptual model that predicts that infection risk in ectotherms will decrease as the difference between host and pathogen environmental tolerances (i.e. tolerance mismatch) increases. We test this prediction using both local-scale data from Costa Rica and global analyses of over 11 000 Bd infection assays. We find that infection prevalence decreases with increasing thermal tolerance mismatch and with increasing host tolerance of habitat modification. The relationship between environmental tolerance mismatches and Bd infection prevalence is generalisable across multiple amphibian families and spatial scales, and the magnitude of the tolerance mismatch effect depends on environmental context. These findings may help explain patterns of amphibian declines driven by a global wildlife pandemic.

Theoretical and empirical evidence exists for a positive relationship between environmental heterogeneity and species diversity. Alpine plant communities can exhibit exceptional diversity at a fine scale, which niche theory would suggest is the result of fine scale spatial heterogeneity of the environment. To test if species diversity of alpine plants is driven by environmental heterogeneity, we sampled vascular plant species composition, microtopography, and ground cover within 1 m2 plots with and without solifluction forms in Glacier National Park, MT. We analyzed the relationship between microtopographic heterogeneity and species richness at the plot and sub-plot scale with linear and quantile regression, respectively. Species richness does not differ between the plots varying in cover type. Species richness is negatively related to the fractal dimension (D) of the ground surface and non-vegetated ground cover within 1 m2 plots. At a finer scale, the standard deviation of elevation and slope appear to impose a limit on species richness such that more variable sub-plots have lower species richness. Contrary to our expectations, microtopographic heterogeneity does not promote the diversity of alpine plants. The negative relationship between topographic heterogeneity and species richness is contrary to the theoretical prediction that environmental heterogeneity generally results in greater species diversity. It is possible that microtopographic variability represents a measure of soil disturbance, which would be expected to have a negative effect on species diversity in alpine tundra due to its low productivity.

Because alpine tundra is responding to climate change, a need exists to understand the meaning of observed changes. To provide context for such interpretation, the relevance of niche and neutral theories of biogeography and the continuum and classification approaches to biogeographic description are assessed. Two extensive studies of alpine tundra, from the Indian Peaks area, Colorado and Glacier National Park, Montana, are combined. The data are ordinated to describe relations. The pattern that emerges is one of a continuum of vegetation, but with the distinctions one might expect from distant sites. The relationships of the similarity of vegetation on all possible pairs of sites to the environmental differences and geographic distances are analyzed using Mantel correlations. Because distance and environmental differences in climate between the two sites are correlated, partial correlations are weak but still significant. More advanced analyses are suggested for this environment prior to interpretation o...

Survival is a key vital rate for projecting the viability of wild populations. Estimating survival is difficult for many rare or elusive species because recapture rates of marked individuals are low, and the ultimate fate of individuals is unknown. Low recapture rates for many species have made it difficult to accurately estimate survival, and to evaluate the importance of individual and environmental covariates for survival. Individual covariates such as size are particularly difficult to include in capture–mark–recapture models for elusive species because the state of the individual is unknown during periods when it is not captured. Here, we integrate a von Bertalanffy growth model with a multi‐state robust‐design Cormack‐Jolly‐Seber model to test for a relationship between body size and survival in the elusive, threatened giant gartersnake, Thamnophis gigas. We take a Bayesian approach to model the size of an individual during periods when it was not captured and measured, which fully propagates uncertainty in this unobserved covariate. We found strong support for a positive relationship between snake size and annual survival, with survival increasing with size up to a peak for adult snakes, after which survival either declines slightly or plateaus for the largest individuals. Few captures of very small and very large individuals led to high uncertainty in the survival rates of these sizes. Survival of giant gartersnakes was also positively related to the amount of precipitation and the cover of emergent and floating vegetation at a site. To our knowledge, our study is the first to estimate a size–survival relationship in a snake while fully accounting for uncertainty in the size of unobserved individuals. Our results have implications for the management of this threatened species and illustrate the utility of integrating hierarchical Bayesian models to the study of survival in elusive species.

Conservation practitioners must contend with an increasing array of threats that affect biodiversity. Citizen scientists can provide timely and expansive information for addressing these threats across large scales, but their data may contain sampling biases. We used randomization procedures to account for possible sampling biases in opportunistically reported citizen science data to identify species' sensitivities to human land use. We analyzed 21,044 records of 143 native reptile and amphibian species reported to the Carolina Herp Atlas from North Carolina and South Carolina between 1 January 1990 and 12 July 2014. Sensitive species significantly associated with natural landscapes were 3.4 times more likely to be legally protected or treated as of conservation concern by state resource agencies than less sensitive species significantly associated with human-dominated landscapes. Many of the species significantly associated with natural landscapes occurred primarily in habitats that had been nearly eradicated or otherwise altered in the Carolinas, including isolated wetlands, longleaf pine savannas, and Appalachian forests. Rare species with few reports were more likely to be associated with natural landscapes and 3.2 times more likely to be legally protected or treated as of conservation concern than species with at least 20 reported occurrences. Our results suggest that opportunistically reported citizen science data can be used to identify sensitive species and that species currently restricted primarily to natural landscapes are likely at greatest risk of decline from future losses of natural habitat. Our approach demonstrates the usefulness of citizen science data in prioritizing conservation and in helping practitioners address species declines and extinctions at large extents.

Much of the western United States is managed by state and federal agencies for multiple uses, including recreation, grazing, extraction, and defense. Biological inventories are integral to proper management and conservation of biodiversity on these lands. We surveyed for amphibians and reptiles occurring on Naval Air Station Fallon (NAS Fallon), Nevada, USA, using a variety of methods. We documented the presence of a majority of the amphibian and reptile species native to this region of the Great Basin. We found 5 species on NAS Fallon that are listed as Species of Conservation Priority by the Nevada Department of Wildlife: the Great Basin Spadefoot (Spea intermontana), Western Toad (Anaxyrus boreas boreas), Northern Desert Horned Lizard (Phrynosoma platyrhinos platyrhinos), Long-nosed Leopard Lizard (Gambelia wizlizenii), and Great Basin Collared Lizard (Crotaphytus bicinctores). However, we found no evidence of any narrowly distributed species of conservation concern, such as the Northern Leopard Frog (Lithobates pipiens) or Northern Rubber Boa (Charina bottae), that could have occurred on installation lands based on historical or recent observations in nearby areas. Our results indicate that this property, while primarily used for military training, can support a diverse, representative herpetofaunal community. Therefore, NAS Fallon should be considered a valuable part of the network of state and federally managed lands necessary for regional conservation planning in the face of future change. Our study also provides a baseline against which future inventories of this federally managed land can be compared.

© 2015 Society for the Study of Amphibians and Reptiles. Western Pond Turtles (Actinemys marmorata) are endemic to western North America and are found in a diversity of aquatic habitats. To date, few studies have examined the ecology of populations in ephemeral or intermittent ponds. Here, we studied the terrestrial habitat requirements of Western Pond Turtles in an intermittent pond that dries in years with below-average rainfall. We tracked terrestrial movements of Western Pond Turtles in an ephemeral pond at the San Joaquin Experimental Range in Madera County, California, USA, in the western foothills of the Sierra Nevada. We used radiotelemetry in 2012-13 to record their terrestrial locations and timing of departure from, and return to, the pond. Also, we examined the terrestrial microhabitat turtles selected for aestivation and overwintering. Turtles began leaving the pond as it dried in the late spring and early summer, spending an average of 235 d out of water, and their return to the pond was correlated with increasing rainfall during late winter. The majority of terrestrial locations were concealed completely in litter or duff and 95% of terrestrial locations during the study occurred within 187 m of the pond edge. Turtles in our study generally exhibited terrestrial habitat use similar to that of populations in intermittent lotic systems such as the many snow-melt and rain-fed rivers in northern California. Our results reinforce the importance of terrestrial habitat in the life history of Western Pond Turtles and the context-dependence of their habitat needs.

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to project the potential distribution of introduced species outside their native range. Such studies rarely explicitly evaluate potential conflicts with native species should the range of introduced species expand. Two snake species native to eastern North America, Nerodia fasciata and Nerodia sipedon, have been introduced to California where they represent a new stressor to declining native amphibians, fish, and reptiles. To project the potential distributions of these non-native watersnakes in western North America, we built ensemble SDMs using MaxEnt, Boosted Regression Trees, and Random Forests and habitat and climatic variables. We then compared the overlap between the projected distribution of invasive watersnakes and the distributions of imperiled native amphibians, fish, and reptiles that can serve as prey or competitors for the invaders, to estimate the risk to native species posed by nonnative watersnakes. Large areas of western North America were projected to be climatically suitable for both species of Nerodia according to our ensemble SDMs, including much of central California. The potential distributions of both N. fasciata and N. sipedon overlap extensively with the federally threatened Giant Gartersnake, Thamnophis gigas, which inhabits a similar ecological niche. N. fasciata also poses risk to the federally threatened California Tiger Salamander, Ambystoma californiense, whereas N. sipedon poses risk to some amphibians of conservation concern, including the Foothill Yellow-legged Frog, Rana boylii . We conclude that non-native watersnakes in California can likely inhabit ranges of several native species of conservation concern that are expected to suffer as prey or competing species for these invaders. Action should be taken now to eradicate or control these invasions before detrimental impacts on native species are widespread. Our methods can be applied broadly to quantify the risk posed by incipient invasions to native biodiversity. © 2014 Rose, Todd.