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After 20+ years as a research scientist, I recently made a career change to a scientific administrator in NOAA Fisheries. Part of the NOAA Fisheries mission is to provide scientific advice for fisheries using ecosystem based approaches to management. Where I used to see fisheries science as a relatively straightforward discipline, I now recognize fisheries as a complex socio-ecological system that spans natural and social sciences. With this recognition has come an appreciation for the concept of wicked problems and for the incremental approach to policy-making. Here I describe my perspectives before and after this recognition and present 10 lessons for myself as a guide to providing science in support of fisheries management.

Many fisheries and marine science organizations are working to determine how to meet their missions in the midst of the COVID-19 outbreak. As such, it seems prudent to exchange ideas, share knowledge, and initiate a discussion among us. As the scientific leadership team for NOAA Fisheries, we wanted to offer some perspectives. Others are also evaluating the impacts of COVID-19 but from the perspective of addressing tactical, day-to-day concerns of restarting operations for various marine and fisheries-oriented organizations. Thus, it seemed appropriate to us to explore the potential challenges posed by COVID-19 and to purposefully ascertain whether there are strategic opportunities for improving how we conduct our operations. We need to find ways to mitigate the effects of COVID-19 on our mission and also to glean information from our responses while in the midst of the crisis. We offer some recommendations to that end and offer these thoughts not as having solved every problem, but to learn from each other, compare across organizations, and engage in dialogue within our discipline to advance much-needed changes.

Decadal-scale climate variability and change can cause trends in oceanographic conditions that impact demographic rates. Rebuilding scenarios, therefore, developed assuming constant demographic rates may not be realistic. Winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus) is an important commercial and recreational species that has declined in the southern portion of its range despite reduced exploitation. Laboratory and mesocosm studies suggest that stock productivity is reduced under warmer conditions and that rebuilding to historical levels may not be possible. Our goal was to examine the rebuilding potential of winter flounder in the face of regional warming. We integrated winter temperature into a population model to estimate environmentally driven stock–recruitment parameters and projected the stock into the future under different climate and fishing scenarios. The inclusion of winter temperature had minor impacts on the estimates of current abundance, but provided greater understanding of the drivers of recruitment. Projections that included the environment suggest that rebuilding the stock to historical levels is unlikely. The integration of both fishing and the environment has the potential to provide more realistic expectations of future stock status.

Nontarget catch restrictions are becoming common in fisheries management. We test a potential tool for reducing nontargeted catch that combines species’ distribution models and ocean forecast models. We evaluated our approach for Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus), Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus), alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus), and blueback herring (Alosa aestivalis). Catch of the latter two species is capped in commercial fisheries of the former two species. Ocean forecasts were derived from a data-assimilative ocean forecast model that predicts conditions 0–2 days into the future. Observed oceanographic conditions were derived from CTD casts and observed fish presence–absence was derived from fishery-independent bottom trawl collections. Species distribution models were used to predict presence–absence based on observed and forecasted oceanographic conditions, and predictions for both were very similar. Thus, most of the error in predicted distributions was generated by the species distribution models, not the oceanographic forecast model. Understanding how predictions based on forecasted conditions compare with predictions from observed conditions is key to developing an incidental catch forecast tool to help industry reduce nontarget catches.

Climate change has altered the oceanographic environment and subsequently the habitats of marine species. Fish and invertebrate populations’ responses to habitat include movement with latitude and depth to remain within their fundamental niches. The northwest Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) population has fluctuated over the last century due in part to changes in the environment. We used species distribution models to understand the influence of the physical (temperature) and biological (zooplankton) environment on mackerel larval abundance, and how such relations have determined larval habitat suitability in the Northeast U.S. Shelf. Atlantic mackerel larval presence and abundance correlated with sea temperature and copepod abundances, suggesting that larval survival may be sensitive to specific temperatures and zooplankton prey. Predicted abundances were spatially interpolated to estimate Atlantic mackerel larval suitable habitat. Metrics for habitat quality indicate that the Mid-Atlantic Bight has become less suitable over time. Since the 1970s, the proportion of Northeast U.S. Shelf suitable habitat located in the Mid-Atlantic Bight has decreased, as southern New England and the western Gulf of Maine regions have become more suitable. Habitat suitability within the Northeast U.S. Shelf has shifted northeast: from the Mid-Atlantic Bight-southern New England border towards the northeast portion of southern New England. While total Northeast U.S. Shelf habitat suitability has decreased since the 1970s, the decline in the time series trend was not statistically significant. Thus, while select ecoregions have decreased in habitat suitability, larval habitat does not appear to be the only contributor to decreases in the U.S. Atlantic mackerel contingent.

The U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf marine ecosystem has warmed much faster than the global ocean and it is expected that this enhanced warming will continue through this century. Complex bathymetry and ocean circulation in this region have contributed to biases in global climate model simulations of the Shelf waters. Increasing the resolution of these models results in reductions in the bias of future climate change projections and indicates greater warming than suggested by coarse resolution climate projections. Here, we used a high-resolution global climate model and historical observations of species distributions from a trawl survey to examine changes in the future distribution of suitable thermal habitat for various demersal and pelagic species on the Shelf. Along the southern portion of the shelf (Mid-Atlantic Bight and Georges Bank), a projected 4.1 °C (surface) to 5.0 °C (bottom) warming of ocean temperature from current conditions results in a northward shift of the thermal habitat for the majority of species. While some southern species like butterfish and black sea bass are projected to have moderate losses in suitable thermal habitat, there are potentially significant increases for many species including summer flounder, striped bass, and Atlantic croaker. In the north, in the Gulf of Maine, a projected 3.7 °C (surface) to 3.9 °C (bottom) warming from current conditions results in substantial reductions in suitable thermal habitat such that species currently inhabiting this region may not remain in these waters under continued warming. We project a loss in suitable thermal habitat for key northern species including Acadian redfish, American plaice, Atlantic cod, haddock, and thorney skate, but potential gains for some species including spiny dogfish and American lobster. We illustrate how changes in suitable thermal habitat of important commercially fished species may impact local fishing communities and potentially impact major fishing ports along the U.S. Northeast Shelf. Given the complications of multiple drivers including species interactions and fishing pressure, it is difficult to predict exactly how species will shift. However, observations of species distribution shifts in the historical record under ocean warming suggest that temperature will play a primary role in influencing how species fare. Our results provide critical information on the potential for suitable thermal habitat on the U.S. Northeast Shelf for demersal species in the region, and may contribute to the development of ecosystem-based fisheries management strategies in response to climate change.

The effects of ocean acidification on living marine resources present serious challenges for managers of these resources. An understanding of the ecosystem consequences of ocean acidification is required to assess tradeoffs among ecosystem components ( e.g. fishery yield, protected species conservation, sensitive habitat) and adaptations to this perturbation. We used a marine ecosystem model for the Northeast US continental shelf to address direct and indirect effects of species responses to ocean acidification. Focusing on upper trophic level groups that are primary targets of fishing activity, we projected changes for systemic ecological and fisheries indicators. We modeled effects of ocean acidification as either fixed changes in mortality rate or production for select species groups over twenty years. Biomass and fishery yield of species groups that were modeled to have direct acidification impacts and groups that were not directly impacted both declined, due to both increased mortality/decreased growth and a decrease in availability of food for groups that prey on shelled invertebrates. Our analyses show that food web consequences of ocean acidification can extend beyond groups thought most vulnerable, and to fishery yield and ecosystem structure. However, the magnitude and precise nature of ocean acidification effects depend on understanding likely species’ responses to decrease in pH. While predicting the effects of ocean acidification is difficult, the potential impacts on ecosystem structure and function need to be evaluated now to provide scientists and managers preliminary assessments for planning and priority setting. Scenario analysis using simulation models like ours provides a framework for testing hypotheses about ecosystem consequences of acidification, and for integrating results of experiments and monitoring.

Concern has been increasing over the impacts of incidental catches of river herring (Alewife Alosa pseudoharengus and Blueback Herring A. aestivalis) in commercial fisheries for Atlantic Herring Clupea harengus and Atlantic Mackerel Scomber scombrus, but historical information on mixed-species catches and their driving factors is lacking. We examined data from spring and fall bottom trawl surveys (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Northeast Fisheries Science Center) for temporal trends in overlap and potential ecosystem drivers of overlap trends. Species overlap changed substantially over time, with changes varying by season and region of the northeastern U.S. continental shelf. In the fall, changes in overlap were positively related to abundance in Georges Bank and southern New England. In the spring, most changes in species overlap were positively related to increasing species abundances. Positive relationships between overlap and abundance suggested that as species distributions increased with abundance, distributional overlap with other species increased as well. During the fall, changes in species overlap were positively related to bottom temperature in the Gulf of Maine, whereas in the spring, the relationship with bottom temperature was less consistent. Temperature-related changes in overlap implied that species distributions changed at different rates in response to climatic changes, thus leading to changes in overlap. Our findings suggest that fisheries management should take an adaptive approach to managing incidental catches by using region- and season-specific policies and should incorporate the effects of species abundances and climate change on species interactions. Received September 28, 2015; accepted October 11, 2016

There is a growing need for cyberinfrastructure to support science-based decision making in management of natural resources. In particular, our motivation was to aid the development of cyberinfrastructure for Integrated Ecosystem Assessments (IEAs) for marine ecosystems. The IEA process involves analysis of natural and socio-economic information based on diverse and disparate sources of data, requiring collaboration among scientists of many disciplines and communication with other stakeholders. Here we describe our bottom-up approach to developing cyberinfrastructure through a collaborative process engaging a small group of domain and computer scientists and software engineers. We report on a use case evaluated for an Ecosystem Status Report, a multi-disciplinary report inclusive of Earth, life, and social sciences, for the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf Large Marine Ecosystem. Ultimately, we focused on sharing workflows as a component of the cyberinfrastructure to facilitate collaboration and reproducibility. We developed and deployed a software environment to generate a portion of the Report, retaining traceability of derived datasets including indicators of climate forcing, physical pressures, and ecosystem states. Our solution for sharing workflows and delivering reproducible documents includes IPython (now Jupyter) Notebooks. We describe technical and social challenges that we encountered in the use case and the importance of training to aid the adoption of best practices and new technologies by domain scientists. We consider the larger challenges for developing end-to-end cyberinfrastructure that engages other participants and stakeholders in the IEA process.

International audience; Changes to our climate and oceans are already affecting living marine resources (LMRs) and the people, businesses, and economies that depend on them. As a result, the U.S. National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) has developed a Climate Science Strategy (CSS) to increase the production and use of the climate-related information necessary to fulfill its LMR stewardship mission for fisheries management and protected species conservation. The CSS establishes seven objectives: (1) determine appropriate, climate-informed reference points; (2) identify robust strategies for managing LMRs under changing climate conditions; (3) design decision processes that are robust to climate-change scenarios; (4) predict future states of ecosystems, LMRs, and LMR-dependent human communities; (5) determine the mechanisms of climate-change related effects on ecosystems, LMRs, and LMR-dependent human communities; (6) track trends in ecosystems, LMRs, and LMR-dependent human communities and provide early warning of change; and (7) build and maintain the science infrastructure required to fulfill NMFS mandates under changing climate conditions. These objectives provide a nationally consistent approach to addressing climate-LMR science needs that supports informed decision-making and effective implementation of the NMFS legislative mandates in each region. Near term actions that will address all objectives include: (1) conducting climate vulnerability analyses in each region for all LMRs; (2) establishing and strengthening ecosystem indicators and status reports in all regions; and (3) developing a capacity to conduct management strategy evaluations of climate-related impacts on management targets, priorities, and goals. Implementation of the Strategy over the next few years and beyond is critical for effective fulfillment of the NMFS mission and mandates in a changing climate.

The state-space model framework provides a natural, probabilistic approach to stock assessment by modeling the stochastic nature of population survival and recruitment separately from sampling uncertainty inherent in observations on the population. We propose a state-space assessment model that is expanded to simultaneously treat environmental covariates as stochastic processes and estimate their effects on recruitment. We apply the model to southern New England yellowtail flounder (Limanda ferruginea) using data from the most recent benchmark assessment to evaluate evidence for effects of the mid-Atlantic cold pool and spawning stock biomass on recruitment. Based on Akaike’s information criterion, both the cold pool and spawning stock biomass were important predictors of recruitment and led to annual variation in estimated biomass reference points and associated yield. We also demonstrate the effect of the stochasticity of the mid-Atlantic cold pool on short-term forecasts of the stock size, biomass reference point, and stock status.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment of projected global and regional ocean temperature change is based on global climate models that have coarse (∼100 km) ocean and atmosphere resolutions. In the Northwest Atlantic, the ensemble of global climate models has a warm bias in sea surface temperature due to a misrepresentation of the Gulf Stream position; thus, existing climate change projections are based on unrealistic regional ocean circulation. Here we compare simulations and an atmospheric CO2 doubling response from four global climate models of varying ocean and atmosphere resolution. We find that the highest resolution climate model (∼10 km ocean, ∼50 km atmosphere) resolves Northwest Atlantic circulation and water mass distribution most accurately. The CO2 doubling response from this model shows that upper-ocean (0–300 m) temperature in the Northwest Atlantic Shelf warms at a rate nearly twice as fast as the coarser models and nearly three times faster than the global average. This enhanced warming is accompanied by an increase in salinity due to a change in water mass distribution that is related to a retreat of the Labrador Current and a northerly shift of the Gulf Stream. Both observations and the climate model demonstrate a robust relationship between a weakening Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and an increase in the proportion of Warm-Temperate Slope Water entering the Northwest Atlantic Shelf. Therefore, prior climate change projections for the Northwest Atlantic may be far too conservative. These results point to the need to improve simulations of basin and regional-scale ocean circulation.

Concern over the impacts of incidental catches of Alewife, Alosa pseudoharengus and Blueback Herring, A. aestivalis (collectively managed as ‘river herring’) in the commercial Atlantic Herring (Clupea harengus) and Atlantic Mackerel (Scomber scombrus) fisheries has resulted in the recent implementation of river herring incidental catch limits. These incidental catches are highly variable in frequency and magnitude, and the environmental conditions associated with these catches are poorly understood. We used generalized additive models (GAMs) to describe habitat associations of Alewife, Blueback Herring, Atlantic Herring, and Atlantic Mackerel. Bottom temperature, bottom depth, bottom salinity, solar azimuth and elevation, and region of the Northeast U.S. continental shelf were all significant in the habitat models; GAMs explained 25.2, 16.9, 18.9, and 20.6% of the deviance observed for the presence/absence of Alewife, Blueback Herring, Atlantic Herring, and Atlantic Mackerel. A subset of the data was omitted from the model and the probability of presence was compared with observations; 66–77% of observations were correctly predicted. The individual probabilities of presence were used to quantify and evaluate the accuracy of modelled overlap of Alewife and Blueback Herring with Atlantic Herring (68–72% correct predictions) and Alewife and Blueback Herring with Atlantic Mackerel (57–69% correct predictions). Our findings indicate that environmental gradients influence the distributions and overlap of Alewife, Blueback Herring, Atlantic Herring, and Atlantic Mackerel, and with further testing and refinement these models could be developed into a tool to aid industry in reducing incidental catches of river herring.

The abundance of alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) and blueback herring (Alosa aestivalis) has declined throughout their range, and there are increasing concerns about their conservation status. Because of their diadromous life history, variability in rates of survival in fresh water can affect overall recruitment. The objective of our study was to assess how river temperature and flow influence young of the year (YOY) river herring recruitment in the Northeast US. Observations of adult and juvenile fish in five rivers were used to construct spawner–YOY recruits models; these rivers were chosen because of the length of the time series (>15 years) and the paired observations of spawners and juveniles. An environmentally explicit stock–recruitment model explained a substantial fraction (41% to 80%) of the variance in YOY abundance, depending on river system. Our approach allowed for a preliminary discussion of potential mechanisms, which need to be further substantiated by focused field and laboratory studies. Early summer river flow and river temperature had the greatest influence, indicating the importance of conditions in nursery habitats. In certain systems, spring or fall conditions were also important determinants of survival, suggesting additional effects of the environment on spawning of adults and juvenile egress from freshwater nursery habitats.

A spatially explicit stratification climatology is constructed for the Northwest Atlantic continental shelf using daily averaged hydrographic fields from a 33-year high-resolution, data-assimilated reanalysis dataset. The high-resolution climatology reveals considerable spatio-temporal heterogeneity in seasonal variability with strong interplay between thermal and haline processes. Regional differences in the magnitude and phasing of the seasonal cycle feature earlier development/breakdown in the Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB) and larger peaks on the shelf than in the Gulf of Maine (GoM). The relative contribution of the thermal and haline components to the overall stratification is quantified using a novel diagram composed of two key ratios. The first relates the vertical temperature gradient to the vertical salinity gradient, and the second relates the thermal expansion coefficient to the haline contraction coefficient. Two distinct regimes are identified: the MAB region is thermally-dominated through a larger portion of the year, whereas the Nova Scotian Shelf and the eastern GoM have a tendency towards haline control during the year. The timing of peak stratification and the beginning/end of thermally-positive and thermally-dominant states are examined. Their spatial distributions indicate a prominent latitudinal shift and regionality, having implications for the seasonal cycle of ecosystem dynamics and its interannual variability.

Ocean fronts represent productive regions of the ocean, but predator–prey interactions within these features are poorly understood partially due to the coarse-scale and biases of net-based sampling methods. We used the In Situ Ichthyoplankton Imaging System (ISIIS) to sample across a front near the Georges Bank shelf edge on two separate sampling days in August 2010. Salinity characterized the transition from shelf to slope water, with isopycnals sloping vertically, seaward, and shoaling at the thermocline. A frontal feature defined by the convergence of isopycnals and a surface temperature gradient was sampled inshore of the shallowest zone of the shelf-slope front. Zooplankton and larval fishes were abundant on the shelf side of the front and displayed taxon-dependent depth distributions but were rare in the slope waters. Supervised automated particle counting showed small particles with high solidity, verified to be zooplankton (copepods and appendicularians), aggregating near surface above the front. Salps were most abundant in zones of intermediate chlorophyll-a fluorescence, distinctly separate from high abundances of other grazers and found almost exclusively in colonial form (97.5%). Distributions of gelatinous zooplankton differed among taxa but tended to follow isopycnals. Fine-scale sampling revealed distinct habitat partitioning of various planktonic taxa, resulting from a balance of physical and biological drivers in relation to the front.

The continental shelf of the Northeast United States and Nova Scotia is a productive marine ecosystem that supports a robust biomass of living marine resources. Understanding marine ecosystem sensitivity to changes in the physical environment can start with the first-order response of phytoplankton (i.e., chlorophyll a), the base of the marine food web. However, the primary physical associations to the interannual variability of chlorophyll a in these waters are unclear. Here we used ocean color satellite measurements and identified the local and remote physical associations to interannual variability of spring surface chlorophyll a from 1998 to 2013. The highest interannual variability of chlorophyll a occurred in March and April on the northern flank of Georges Bank, the western Gulf of Maine, and Nantucket Shoals. Complex interactions between winter wind speed over the Shelf, local winter water levels, and the relative proportions of Atlantic versus Labrador Sea source waters entering the Gulf of Maine from the previous summer/fall were associated with the variability of March/April chlorophyll a in Georges Bank and the Gulf of Maine. Sea surface temperature and sea surface salinity were not robust correlates to spring chlorophyll a. Surface nitrate in the winter was not a robust correlate to chlorophyll a or the physical variables in every case suggesting that nitrate limitation may not be the primary constraint on the interannual variability of the spring bloom throughout all regions. Generalized linear models suggest that we can resolve 88% of March chlorophyll a interannual variability in Georges Bank using lagged physical data.

A previous study documented a correlation between Atlantic Cod (Gadus morhua) recruitment in the Gulf of Maine and an annual index of the north component of May winds. This correlation was supported by modeling studies that indicated strong recruitment of Gulf of Maine Atlantic Cod results from high retention of spring-spawned larvae in years when winds were predominately out of the north, which favor downwelling. We re-evaluated this relationship using updated recruitment estimates and found that the correlation decreased between recruitment and wind. The original relationship was largely driven by two recruitment estimates, one of which (2005 year-class) was highly uncertain because it was near the terminal year of the assessment. With additional data, the updated assessment estimated lower recruitment for the 2005 year-class, which consequently lowered the correlation between recruitment and wind. We then investigated whether an environmentally-explicit stock recruit function that incorporated an annual wind index was supported by either the original or updated assessment output. Although incorporation of the annual wind index produced a better fitting model, the uncertainty in the estimated parameters and the implied unexploited conditions were not appropriate for providing management advice. These results suggest the need for caution in the development of environmentally-explicit stock recruitment relationships, in particular when basing relationships and hypotheses on recruitment estimates from the terminal years of stock assessment models. More broadly, this study highlights a number of sources of uncertainty that should be considered when analyzes are performed on the output of stock assessment models.

Climate change and fishing can have major impacts on the distribution of natural marine resources. Climate change alters the distribution of suitable habitat, forcing organisms to shift their range or attempt to survive under suboptimal conditions. Fishing reduces the abundance of marine populations and truncates their age structure leading to range contractions or shifts. Along the east coast of the United States, there have been major changes in fish populations due to the impacts of fishing and subsequent regulations, as well as changes in the climate. Black sea bass, scup, summer flounder, and winter flounder are important commercial and recreational species, which utilize inshore and offshore waters on the northeast shelf. We examined the distributions of the four species with the Northeast Fisheries Science Center trawl surveys to determine if the along-shelf centres of biomass had changed over time and if the changes were attributed to changes in temperature or fishing pressure through changes in abundance and length structure. Black sea bass, scup, and summer flounder exhibited significant poleward shifts in distributions in at least one season while the Southern New England/Mid-Atlantic Bight stock of winter flounder did not shift. Generalized additive modelling indicated that the changes in the centres of biomass for black sea bass and scup in spring were related to climate, while the change in the distribution of summer flounder was largely attributed to a decrease in fishing pressure and an expansion of the length–age structure. While the changes in ocean temperatures will have major impacts on the distribution of marine taxa, the effects of fishing can be of equivalent magnitude and on a more immediate time scale. It is important for management to take all factors into consideration when developing regulations for natural marine resources.

Few fisheries oceanography surveys in the United States have sampled hydrography and ichthyoplankton or juvenile fishes for 15 years or more. We describe six long time series surveys, including three from the California Current System, and one each from Alaska (Gulf of Alaska, Bering Sea, and the Arctic), the Northeast US Shelf, and the Gulf of Mexico. We examine the applications of long time series data as well as the output of published analyses, Web-based graphical summaries, and quality controlled data to the broader scientific community (including resource managers and stakeholders). Potential improvements to the surveys using new technologies are evaluated, and possible changes in survey design are discussed. We conclude with a summary of the benefits derived from these long time series fisheries oceanography surveys and make the case for their continuation.

Tidally driven internal wave packets in coastal environments have the potential to influence patchiness of larval fishes, prey, and gelatinous predators. We used the In Situ Ichthyoplankton Imaging System (ISIIS) to synoptically sample larval fishes, copepods, and planktonic predators (ctenophores, hydromedusae, chaetognaths, and polychaetes) across these predictable features in the summer near Stellwagen Bank, Massachusetts, USA. Full water column profiles and fixed depth transects (∼10 m depth) were used to quantify vertical and horizontal components of the fish and invertebrate distributions during stable and vertically mixed conditions associated with tidally generated internal waves. Larval fishes, consisting mostly of Urophycis spp., Merluccius bilinearis, and Labridae, were concentrated near the surface, with larger sizes generally occupying greater depths. During stable water column conditions, copepods formed a near surface thin layer several meters above the chlorophyll-a maximum that was absent when internal waves were propagating. In contrast, ctenophores and other predators were much more abundant at depth, but concentrations near 10 m increased immediately after the internal hydraulic jump mixed the water column. During the propagation of internal waves, the fine-scale abundance of larval fishes was more correlated with the abundance of gelatinous predators and less correlated with copepods compared to the stable conditions. Vertical oscillations caused by the internal hydraulic jump can disperse patches of zooplankton and force surface dwelling larval fishes into deeper water where probability of predator contact is increased, creating conditions potentially less favorable for larval fish growth and survival on short time scales.

We quantified native fish densities along a depth-temperature gradient within a tem- perate-tropical marine transition zone (North Carolina continental shelf) to examine the role of depth and temperature in structuring these communities. We also examined the distribution of in- vasive lionfish (Pterois volitans, P. miles) to evaluate a laboratory-derived thermal minimum for lion- fish. We collected year-round continuous bottom water temperature data from 2000 to 2010 and sur- veyed lionfish (2004 to 2010), conspicuous fishes (2006 to 2010) and cryptic smaller-bodied fishes (2007 to 2010) at depths from 5 to 46 m using SCUBA. Bottom water temperatures were constant across the depth gradient during summer and increased from inshore to offshore during winter. The conspicuous fish community was structured by 3 depth zones, 5-14, 15-37 and 38-46 m, that corre- sponded with winter mean temperatures of 13.9, 17.9 and 20.9°C, respectively. The cryptic fish community was structured by 4 depth zones, 5-15, 18-24, 27-38.5 and 39.5-46 m, with correspon- ding winter mean bottom temperatures of 13.8, 15.6, 18.7 and 20.9°C. In contrast, summer tempera- tures were not important in structuring either the conspicuous or the cryptic fish community. Thus, fish communities in the spring/summer appear to be structured by the pattern of bottom water tem- perature experienced the previous winter, supporting previous studies that indicate winter mini- mum temperature is important for determining fish distribution and abundance in temperate marine ecosystems. In addition, the deeper fish communities were dominated by tropical species. Lionfish, a tropical species, was found in the highest densities from 38 to 46 m and present in loca- tions with a winter mean of 15.3°C and higher. Increasing temperatures could favor a potential ex- pansion of invasive lionfish and native tropical species into the nearshore waters on the North Car- olina shelf, resulting in unforeseen community structure and trophic disruptions.

Presentaddress: NOAANational Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), Office of Science andTechnology,Silver Spring, MD 20910, USA.Lynch, P. D., Nye, J. A., Hare, J. A., Stock, C. A., Alexander, M. A., Scott, J. D., Curti, K. L., and Drew, K. Projected ocean warmingcreates a conservation challenge for river herring populations. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, doi: 10.1093/icesjms/fsu134.Received11 March2014; revised 9July 2014; accepted16 July 2014.Thetermriverherringcollectivelyreferstoalewife(Alosapseudoharengus)andbluebackherring(A.aestivalis),twoanadromousfishesdistributedalongtheeastcoastofNorthAmerica.Historically,riverherringspawningmigrationssupportedimportantfisheries,andtheirspawningrunscon-tinuetobeofculturalsignificancetomanycoastalcommunities.Recently,substantialdeclinesinspawningrunsizepromptedapetitiontoconsiderriver herring for listing under the Endangered Species Act (ESA). The ESA status review process requires an evaluation of a species’ response tomultiple stressors, including climate change. Foranadromous species that utilize a range of habitats throughout their life cycle, the response toa changing global climate is inherently complex and likely varies regionally. River herring occupy marine habitat for most of their lives, and wedemonstrate that their relative abundance in the ocean has been increasing in recent years. We project potential effects of ocean warmingalong the US Atlantic coast on river herring in two seasons (spring and fall), and two future periods (2020–2060 and 2060–2100) by linkingspecies distribution models to projected temperature changes from global climate models. Our analyses indicate that climate change will likelyresult in reductions in total suitable habitat across the study region, which will alter the marine distribution of river herring. We also projectthatdensity will likely decrease for bothspecies in fall, but mayincrease inspring. Finally,wedemonstrate thatriverherring mayhave increasedsensitivitytoclimatechangeunderalowabundancescenario.Thisresultcouldbeanimportantconsiderationforresourcemanagerswhenplan-ningforclimatechangebecauseestablishingeffectiveconservationeffortsintheneartermmayimprovepopulationresiliencyandprovidelastingbenefitsto river herring populations.Keywords:alewife,Alosa,bioclimaticenvelope,bluebackherring,climatechange,diadromous,ecologicalniche,endangeredspecies,fish,habitatsuitability.

Marine organisms that utilize nearshore environments for major components of their life histories are subject to both local-scale forcing such as water quality and estuarine degradation as well as large-scale forcing such as fishing and decadal-scale climate variability. Large-scale forcing has the potential to synchronize the dynamics of subpopulations, while local-level forcing can produce asynchronous subpopulation trends. Summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus) and winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus) are important commercial and recreational flatfish along the east coast of North America which spend their first year of life in coastal habitats. We found that the two exhibited significant within-species coherence in commercial landings and fisheries-independent surveys across the northeast shelf of the United States, suggesting large-scale external drivers. In laboratory studies, temperature has been found to be an important factor regulating survival during the egg, larva and settlement phases of both species. We reconstructed a 40-year time-series of coastal water temperature for the major spawning and nursery areas to examine changes in the thermally available habitat. Estimates of winter flounder abundance were negatively correlated with the winter water temperature, but not with fishing mortality. Summer flounder abundance, by contrast, was negatively correlated with fishing mortality, but exhibited no link with temperature. In addition, time-varying stock–recruitment relationships indicated that stock productivity declined for winter flounder over time, while summer flounder productivity has varied without a trend. While both species declined in the 1980s and early 1990s due to heavy fishing pressure, the reduction in fishing over the last two decades has led to rebuilding of the summer flounder stock and an expansion of its age structure. Declining productivity due to warming estuarine conditions has kept the winter flounder stock at low levels despite low fishing pressure. The two stocks illustrate the importance of controlling fishing mortality in the management of natural marine resources while also accounting for changes in productivity due to climate variability and change.

Risk assessment methods are used worldwide to evaluate threats posed by fisheries and other impacts on living marine resources, and to prioritize management of these threats. We derive a simplified risk analysis for aggregate fish communities as a preliminary tool to identify priorities for further detailed assessment. Because some of the largest observed rates of sea surface temperature increase are on the northeast US continental shelf, we focused on climate change-driven risks to marine communities in this region. We evaluated climate vulnerability for six communities across two ecosystems: both commercial and non-commercial demersal fish, pelagic fish, and benthic invertebrates in the Gulf of Maine (GOM) and Mid-Atlantic bight (MAB). We first evaluated the probability that anticipated climate changes (e.g. warming water, decreased salinity, increased acidity, altered boundary currents) would occur in these regions, and rated the potential severity of change over the next 10 years. Then, we evaluated the sensitivity of each biological community in each region using 12 attributes (e.g. habitat and prey specificity, temperature and acidity sensitivity, larval dispersal, adult mobility, population productivity, etc.). Exposure to the key climate risks was related to community sensitivity in each region for an overall assessment of climate vulnerability. Climate risks from increased surface water temperature, sea level rise, and earlier spring were rated moderate to high in both regions, with additional moderate to high risks in the GOM from increased bottom temperature, stratification, and river inputs. Benthic invertebrates were rated most sensitive, with demersals intermediate and pelagics lowest. Two MAB communities were rated more sensitive than corresponding GOM communities, but greater short-term climate risks in the GOM indicated increased exposure for GOM communities. Overall, this simple analysis may help prioritize short-term regional climate risk management action, thus addressing key conditions related to fishery fluctuations beyond fishing itself.

In this study, we examine the importance of regional wind forcing in modulating advective processes and hydrographic properties along the Northwest Atlantic shelf, with a focus on the Nova Scotian Shelf (NSS)-Gulf of Maine (GoM) region. Long-term observational data of alongshore wind stress, sea level slope, and along-shelf flow are analyzed to quantify the relationship between wind forcing and hydrodynamic responses on interannual time scales. Additionally, a simplified momentum balance model is used to examine the underlying mechanisms. Our results show significant correlation among the observed interannual variability of sea level slope, along-shelf flow, and alongshore wind stress in the NSS-GoM region. A mechanism is suggested to elucidate the role of wind in modulating the sea level slope and along-shelf flow: stronger southwesterly (northeastward) winds tend to weaken the prevailing southwestward flow over the shelf, building sea level in the upstream Newfoundland Shelf region, whereas weaker southwesterly winds allow stronger southwestward flow to develop, raising sea level in the GoM region. The wind-induced flow variability can influence the transport of low-salinity water from the Gulf of St. Lawrence to the GoM, explaining interannual variations in surface salinity distributions within the region. Hence, our results offer a viable mechanism, besides the freshening of remote upstream sources, to explain interannual patterns of freshening in the GoM.

Fisheries oceanography is largely an applied discipline with a major goal of improving fisheries management and marine conservation. Johan Hjort's critical period hypothesis, and its decedents, remain a dominant theme and focuses on year-class success as mediated by prey availability and feeding. Bottom-up forcing, a related hypothesis, focuses on the sequential transfer of energy through the pelagic foodweb from primary productivity to fishery productivity. Another approach assumes that trophic interactions of adults determine abundance. Fisheries assessment and management, however, is based on the hypothesis that fishery abundance is determined by time-varying fishing and year-class success related to spawning-stock biomass. These approaches, their basic hypotheses, and underlying processes and mechanisms suggest very different dynamics for fishery populations. Other hypotheses challenge these traditional views: predation of early life stages, parental condition, shifting migration pathways, and physiological limits. Support for these other hypotheses is reviewed and the research needs are described to apply these hypotheses to fisheries assessment and management. Some of these hypotheses were identified by Hjort (e.g. parental condition hypothesis) and others are relative new (e.g. early life stage predation hypothesis). Moving into the future, we should focus on Hjort's approach: multi-hypothesis, integrative, and interdisciplinary. A range of hypotheses should be pursued with an emphasis on comparing and linking multiple hypotheses. The results then must be incorporated into fishery assessments and management decisions to support the long-term sustainability of exploited species and the conservation of threatened and endangered species.

The dynamics of marine fishes are closely related to lower trophic levels and the environment. Quantitatively understanding ecosystem dynamics linking environmental variability and prey resources to exploited fishes is crucial for ecosystem-based management of marine living resources. However, standard statistical models typically grounded in the concept of linear system may fail to capture the complexity of ecological processes. We have attempted to model ecosystem dynamics using a flexible, nonparametric class of nonlinear forecasting models. We analyzed annual time series of four environmental indices, 22 marine copepod taxa, and four ecologically and commercially important fish species during 1977 to 2009 on Georges Bank, a highly productive and intensively studied area of the northeast U.S. continental shelf ecosystem. We examined the underlying dynamic features of environmental indices and copepods, quantified the dynamic interactions and coherence with fishes, and explored the potential control mechanisms of ecosystem dynamics from a nonlinear perspective. We found: (1) the dynamics of marine copepods and environmental indices exhibiting clear nonlinearity; (2) little evidence of complex dynamics across taxonomic levels of copepods; (3) strong dynamic interactions and coherence between copepods and fishes; and (4) the bottom-up forcing of fishes and top-down control of copepods coexisting as target trophic levels vary. These findings highlight the nonlinear interactions among ecosystem components and the importance of marine zooplankton to fish populations which point to two forcing mechanisms likely interactively regulating the ecosystem dynamics on Georges Bank under a changing environment.

A successful pupil-led effort to build a fullerene generator and to use it to synthesize C60 and C70 is reported, demonstrating that such an activity is feasible in schools. Suggestions are made as to how fullerene synthesis and purification could be used in conventional high school chemistry lessons, particularly in the context of teaching the concept of allotropy, but also to illustrate some of the contrasting properties of simple versus giant covalent structures.

Simple numerical data analysis is described, using a standard spreadsheet program, to determine distance, velocity (speed) and acceleration from voltage data generated by a skateboard/longboard speedometer (Hare 2012 Phys. Educ. 47 409–17). This simple analysis is an introduction to data processing including scaling data as well as simple numerical differentiation and integration. This is an interesting, fun and instructive way to start to explore data manipulation at GCSE and A-level—analysis and skills so essential for the engineer and scientist.

The US Northeast Continental Shelf is experiencing a period of increasing temperature levels and range, which impacts the quantity of thermal habitats within the ecosystem. With increasing temperatures, the amount of warmer, surface water thermal habitats (16–27 °C) has increased while there has been a reciprocal decline in cooler water habitats (5–15 °C). These cooler water habitats are the most abundant and comprise the core habitats of the ecosystem. The coldest thermal habitats (1–4 °C), however, have increased slightly in amount or have remained constant, reflecting a discontinuity in the progression of warming along a latitudinal gradient. This discontinuity may be the result of recent changes in the circulation of water masses in the northern Gulf of Maine, potentially associated with the Labrador Current. The contraction of core thermal habitats appears to have had biological consequences on multiple trophic levels. In particular, two zooplankton species associated with the larval feeding of Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua, have declined in abundance in the same areas where cod populations have exhibited continually poor recruitment. The zooplankton species group Pseudocalanus spp., which is associated with winter-spawning cod, has declined on Georges Bank and in the Eastern Gulf of Maine. The zooplankton Centropages typicus has declined in the Gulf of Maine during late summer into fall, potentially affecting spring-spawning cod in that area. These observations are consistent with the hypothesis that portions of the population complex of cod have lower reproductive output due to changes in zooplankton abundance, which we associate with the distribution of temperatures within the ecosystem.

Hollowed, A. B., Barange, M., Beamish, R., Brander, K., Cochrane, K., Drinkwater, K., Foreman, M., Hare, J., Holt, J., Ito, S-I., Kim, S., King, J., Loeng, H., MacKenzie, B., Mueter, F., Okey, T., Peck, M. A., Radchenko, V., Rice, J., Schirripa, M., Yatsu, A., and Yamanaka, Y. 2013. Projected impacts of climate change on marine fish and fisheries. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 70: 1023–1037. This paper reviews current literature on the projected effects of climate change on marine fish and shellfish, their fisheries, and fishery-dependent communities throughout the northern hemisphere. The review addresses the following issues: (i) expected impacts on ecosystem productivity and habitat quantity and quality; (ii) impacts of changes in production and habitat on marine fish and shellfish species including effects on the community species composition, spatial distributions, interactions, and vital rates of fish and shellfish; (iii) impacts on fisheries and their associated communities; (iv) implications for food security and associated changes; and (v) uncertainty and modelling skill assessment. Climate change will impact fish and shellfish, their fisheries, and fishery-dependent communities through a complex suite of linked processes. Integrated interdisciplinary research teams are forming in many regions to project these complex responses. National and international marine research organizations serve a key role in the coordination and integration of research to accelerate the production of projections of the effects of climate change on marine ecosystems and to move towards a future where relative impacts by region could be compared on a hemispheric or global level. Eight research foci were identified that will improve the projections of climate impacts on fish, fisheries, and fishery-dependent communities.

Hare, J.A., Manderson, J.P., Nye, J.A., Alexander, M.A., Auster, P.J., Borggaard, D.L., Capotondi, A.M., Damon-Randall, K.B., Heupel, E., Mateo, I., O'Brien, L., Richardson, D.E., Stock, C.A., and Biege, S.T. 2012. Cusk (Brosme brosme) and climate change: assessing the threat to a candidate marine fish species under the US Endangered Species Act. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 69: 1753–1768. In the Northwest Atlantic Ocean cusk (Brosme brosme) has declined dramatically, primarily as a result of fishing activities. These declines have led to concern about its status, which has prompted reviews under the US Endangered Species Act and the Canadian Species at Risk Act. Changes in distribution and abundance of a number of marine fish in the Northwest Atlantic have been linked to climate variability and change, suggesting that both fishing and climate may affect the status of cusk. Our goal was to evaluate potential effects of climate change on Northwest Atlantic cusk distribution. Coupling a species niche model with the output from an ensemble of climate models, we projected cusk distribution in the future. Our results indicate cusk habitat in the region will shrink and fragment, which is a result of a spatial mismatch between high complexity seafloor habitat and suitable temperature. The importance of habitat patch connectivity for cusk is poorly understood, so the population-level consequences of climate-related habitat fragmentation are uncertain. More broadly, climate change may reduce appropriate thermal habitat and increase habitat fragmentation for other cold-water species in the region; thereby, increasing the potential for regional overexploitation and extirpation.

article i nfo Climate change is expected to cause a poleward shift of many temperate species, however, a mechanistic un- derstanding of how temperature and species' life histories interact to produce observed adult range is often lacking. We evaluated the hypothesis that juvenile thermal tolerance determines northern range in gray snapper (Lutjanus griseus), a species commonly caught as juveniles along the US Atlantic coast well north of their adult distribution, using a combined laboratory, field and modeling approach. The cumulative degree days below 17 °C (CDDb17) survived by individuals maintained in the laboratory under ambient seasonal cooling conditions were used to quantify the chronic effects of prolonged but non-lethal low temperatures. Under ambient conditions, juveniles stopped feeding below 11.3 °C, and the mean temperature at death was 10.2 °C (+/−0.74 S.D.). The CDDb17 endured by individuals ranged from 61.9 to 138.8 (83.54+/− 22.44 S.D.), and was positively related to fish size. The relation between CDDb17 and fish size was extrapo- lated to the maximum juvenile size in fall to provide an upper limit for survival in the wild (CDDb17= 210 days). Acute low temperature tolerance was evaluated in a second experiment that exposed juveniles to a constant rate of temperature decline (3 °C d −1

High-quality SiOx nanoflowers have been generated by heating mixed SiC/Co powder films in a CO atmosphere. The structural features associated with different stages of the growth were monitored by SEM, TEM, EDX, and XRD analysis. A plausible mechanism for the formation of exquisite flowerlike structures is proposed in which SiC reacts with CO, the Co particles acting as a catalytic template, to yield amorphous SiOx branches. Numerous loops and branches were also observed which may arise either as a result of bifurcation or coalescence. Use of Co2O3 instead of Co as catalyst leads to abnormal flowers exhibiting secondary growth.

Walter et al. (1) and Safina (2) raise numerous concerns regarding our study (3). Specifically, they question our conclusions that (i) a majority of spawning occurs outside the Gulf of Mexico, (ii) western North Atlantic bluefin tuna mature earlier than currently estimated, and (iii) additional spawning locations and younger age at maturity mean that the western Atlantic bluefin tuna are less vulnerable to anthropogenic impacts, including exploitation.

Marine ecosystems are characterized by many complex interactions. Fisheries managers face the challenge of maintaining or restoring sustainability for individual living resources which are affected by both ecological and economic interactions with other species, through processes like predation and fishing fleet interactions. These species interactions are further complicated by interactions with habitats that are changing due to both human activities and climate change. Often, fishery management systems designed to promote sustainability of individual resources have few tools or processes that also address interactions between species, fleets, habitat, and climate. Here, we review existing and potential fishery assessment and management information and tools, and we develop a potential framework for addressing interactions in management at the request of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council. The structured framework can be used to first prioritize interactions, second specify key questions regarding high priority interactions, and third tailor appropriate analyses to address them. The primary tools for the initial steps in the framework are risk assessment and Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE). Finally, implemented management would be evaluated to ensure that objectives are being met, or to adjust measures as conditions change. In the final section, we outline an example to illustrate how a structured decision making process within the framework could work.