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Background Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are a crucial suite of measures to prevent and control infectious disease outbreaks. Despite being particularly important for crisis-affected populations and those living in informal settlements, who typically reside in overcrowded and resource limited settings with inadequate access to healthcare, guidance on NPI implementation rarely takes the specific needs of such populations into account. We therefore conducted a systematic scoping review of the published evidence to describe the landscape of research and identify evidence gaps concerning the acceptability, feasibility, and effectiveness of NPIs among crisis-affected populations and informal settlements. Methods We systematically reviewed peer-reviewed articles published between 1970 and 2020 to collate available evidence on the feasibility, acceptability, and effectiveness of NPIs in crisis-affected populations and informal settlements. We performed quality assessments of each study using a standardised questionnaire. We analysed the data to produce descriptive summaries according to a number of categories: date of publication; geographical region of intervention; typology of crisis, shelter, modes of transmission, NPI, research design; study design; and study quality. Results Our review included 158 studies published in 85 peer-reviewed articles. Most research used low quality study designs. The acceptability, feasibility, and effectiveness of NPIs was highly context dependent. In general, simple and cost-effective interventions such as community-level environmental cleaning and provision of water, sanitation and hygiene services, and distribution of items for personal protection such as insecticide-treated nets, were both highly feasible and acceptable. Logistical, financial, and human resource constraints affected both the implementation and sustainability of measures. Community engagement emerged as a strong factor contributing to the effectiveness of NPIs. Conversely, measures that involve potential restriction on personal liberty such as case isolation and patient care and burial restrictions were found to be less acceptable, despite apparent effectiveness. Conclusions Overall, the evidence base was variable, with substantial knowledge gaps which varied between settings and pathogens. Based on the current landscape, robust evidence-based guidance is not possible, and a research agenda is urgently required that focusses on these specific vulnerable populations. Although implementation of NPIs presents unique practical challenges in these settings, it is critical that such an agenda is put in place, and that the lessons learned from historical and present experiences are documented to build a firm evidence base. Graphical Abstract

The 2014–2016 West Africa Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) Epidemic devastated Guinea’s health system and constituted a public health emergency of international concern. Following the crisis, Guinea invested in the establishment of basic health system reforms and crucial legal instruments for strengthening national health security in line with the WHO’s recommendations for ensuring better preparedness for (and, therefore, a response to) health emergencies. The investments included the scaling up of Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response; Joint External Evaluation of International Health Regulation capacities; National Action Plan for Health Security; Simulation Exercises; One Health platforms; creation of decentralised structures such as regional and prefectural Emergency Operation Centres; Risk assessment and hazard identification; Expanding human resources capacity; Early Warning Alert System and community preparedness. These investments were tested in the subsequent 2021 EVD outbreak and other epidemics. In this case, there was a timely declaration and response to the 2021 EVD epidemic, a lower-case burden and mortality rate, a shorter duration of the epidemic and a significant reduction in the cost of the response. Similarly, there was timely detection, response and containment of other epidemics including Lassa fever and Marburg virus disease. Findings suggest the utility of the preparedness activities for the early detection and efficient containment of outbreaks, which, therefore, underlines the need for all countries at risk of infectious disease epidemics to invest in similar reforms. Doing so promises to be not only cost-effective but also lifesaving.

BackgroundOn April 10, 2020, while the independent committee of the International Health Regulation (IHR) was meeting to decide whether the 10th Ebola outbreak in the DRC still constituted a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, a new confirmed case was notified in the city of Beni, the last epicentre of the epidemic. This study aimed to understand the source of this cluster and learn from the implemented control strategies for improved EVD outbreak response in future. MethodsWe conducted a combined epidemiological and genomic investigation to understand the origins and dynamics of transmission within this cluster and describe the strategy that successfully controlled the outbreak. ResultsEight cases were identified as belonging to the last cluster of Beni; two males and six females, with a median age of 22 years (range 7 - 68 years). Five cases were likely nosocomially infected. A total of 1,028 contacts were identified. Whole Genome Sequencing revealed that all cases belonged to the same cluster, the closest sequence to which was identified as a case from Beni area with symptom onset in July 2019 and a difference of just 31 nucleotides. Outbreak control measures included community confinement of high-risk contacts, undertaken in accordance with key guiding principles agreed with the affected community. ConclusionThe study illustrates the high risk of additional flare-ups in the period leading to the end-of-outbreak declaration and the importance of maintaining enhanced surveillance and confinement activities to rapidly control Ebola outbreaks.

BackgroundDespite tremendous progress on Ebola Virus Disease (EVD), challenges remain in the implementation of holistic strategies to quickly stop outbreaks. We investigated the effectiveness of a community-based confinement strategy to limit the spread of EVD during the tenth documented EVD outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), 2018 - 2020.MethodsWe did a community-based, open-label, two-group, unrandomized controlled intervention. Eligible participants were EVD contacts registered by epidemiological surveillance teams from November 2019 to May 2020 in the two last hotspots (Beni and Mabalako Health Zones). Intervention group participants were confined in specific community sites of their preference for the duration of their follow-up. Control group participants underwent CT without confinement and were allowed to continue their daily activities. The primary outcome was the number of confirmed secondary cases in the two groups. Secondary outcomes included delay between symptom onset and isolation, case fatality rate, survival rate, and vaccination rate. Data were analyzed using various quantitative methods.FindingsA total of 27,324 EVD contacts were included in the study. 585 contacts were confined and followed up (‘the intervention group’), and 26,739 were followed up without confinement. The intervention group generated 32 confirmed cases (5.5%) in the first generation, while the control group generated just 87 (0.3%). However, the 32 confirmed cases from the intervention contacts did not generate any onward transmission (R=0.00), whereas the 87 confirmed cases from the non-intervention group generated 99 secondary cases (R = 1.14). Results for the secondary outcomes showed significant difference between the two groups. The delay between symptom onset and case isolation was shorter (1.3 vs 4.8 days; pInterpretationThe community-based confinement strategy used in DRC is effective for the rapid cessation of EVD transmission, highlighting the importance of rapidly implemented, innovative and community-oriented control strategies.

IntroductionNon-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are a crucial suite of measures to prevent and control infectious disease outbreaks. They are particularly important for crisis-affected populations that typically reside in settings characterised by overcrowding, inadequate access to healthcare and resource limitations. To describe the landscape of research and identify evidence gaps concerning the acceptability, feasibility, and effectiveness of NPIs among crisis-affected populations and informal settings, we conducted a systematic scoping review of the published evidence.MethodsWe systematically reviewed peer-reviewed articles published between 1970 and 2020 to collate available evidence on the feasibility, acceptability, and effectiveness of NPIs in crisis-affected populations and informal settlements. We performed quality assessments of each study using a standardised questionnaire.ResultsOur review included 158 studies published in 85 peer-reviewed articles. Most research used low quality study designs. The acceptability, feasibility, and effectiveness of NPIs was highly context dependent. In general, simple and cost-effective interventions such as community-level environmental cleaning and provision of water, sanitation and hygiene services, and distribution of items for personal protection such as insecticide-treated nets, were both highly feasible and acceptable. Logistical, financial, and human resource constraints affected both the implementation and sustainability of measures. Community engagement emerged as a strong factor contributing to the effectiveness of NPIs. Conversely, measures that involve potential restriction on personal liberty such as case isolation were found to be less acceptable to the community.ConclusionOverall, the evidence base was patchy, with substantial knowledge gaps between differing between settings and pathogens. Although implementation of NPIs presents unique practical challenges, it is critical that the lessons learned are shared with the wider community to build a robust evidence base.Summary boxWhat is already known?- NPIs are a crucial suite of tools for the prevention and control of infectious diseases, either as a complement to, or in the absence of, effective pharmaceutical interventions (i.e., therapeutics and vaccination).- Despite being disproportionately vulnerable, crisis-affected populations and those living in informal settlements are often neglected by research and guidance. NPIs are, however, vital and adaptation is necessary within these settings due to poor living conditions and resource limitations that intensify disease transmission risk.What are the new findings?- We conducted a scoping review to produce a landscape analysis of the existing evidence concerning NPIs within crisis-affected settings and informal settlements.- The existing evidence is patchy, uneven, occasionally contradictory, and of generally low quality, but building over time.- Although limited, some findings are generalisable across settings, populations and NPIs.What do the new findings imply?- There is a need for greater investments in research to strengthen the guidance and policies on NPIs in these settings.- In particular, upstream pilot feasibility and acceptability studies should be conducted prior to the widespread roll-out of interventions to ensure they are feasible, acceptable, and ultimately effective for the target populations.

Despite its critical role in containing outbreaks, the efficacy of contact tracing (CT), measured as the sensitivity of case detection, remains an elusive metric. We estimated the sensitivity of CT by applying unilist capture-recapture methods on data from the 2018-2020 outbreak of Ebola virus disease in the Democratic Republic of Congo. We applied different distributional assumptions to the zero-truncated count data to estimate the number of unobserved cases with a) any contacts and b) infected contacts, to compute CT sensitivity. Geometric distributions were the best fitting models. Our results indicate that CT efforts identified almost all (n=792, 99%) of the cases with any contacts, but only half (n=207, 48%) of the cases with infected contacts, suggesting that CT efforts performed well at identifying contacts during the listing stage, but performed poorly during the contact follow-up stage. We discuss extensions to our work and potential applications for the current COVID-19 pandemic.

Background We investigate the completeness of contact tracing for COVID-19 during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Thailand, from early January 2020 to 30 June 2020. Methods Uni-list capture-recapture models were applied to the frequency distributions of index cases to inform two questions: (1) the unobserved number of index cases with contacts, and (2) the unobserved number of index cases with secondary cases among their contacts. Results Generalized linear models (using Poisson and logistic families) did not return any significant predictor (age, sex, nationality, number of contacts per case) on the risk of transmission and hence capture-recapture models did not adjust for observed heterogeneity. Best fitting models, a zero truncated negative binomial for question 1 and zero-truncated Poisson for question 2, returned sensitivity estimates for contact tracing performance of 77.6% (95% CI = 73.75–81.54%) and 67.6% (95% CI = 53.84–81.38%), respectively. A zero-inflated negative binomial model on the distribution of index cases with secondary cases allowed the estimation of the effective reproduction number at 0.14 (95% CI = 0.09–0.22), and the overdispersion parameter at 0.1. Conclusion Completeness of COVID-19 contact tracing in Thailand during the first wave appeared moderate, with around 67% of infectious transmission chains detected. Overdispersion was present suggesting that most of the index cases did not result in infectious transmission chains and the majority of transmission events stemmed from a small proportion of index cases.

Background Unrest in Myanmar in August 2017 resulted in the movement of over 700,000 Rohingya refugees to overcrowded camps in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh. A large outbreak of diphtheria subsequently began in this population. Methods and findings Data were collected during mass vaccination campaigns (MVCs), contact tracing activities, and from 9 Diphtheria Treatment Centers (DTCs) operated by national and international organizations. These data were used to describe the epidemiological and clinical features and the control measures to prevent transmission, during the first 2 years of the outbreak. Between November 10, 2017 and November 9, 2019, 7,064 cases were reported: 285 (4.0%) laboratory-confirmed, 3,610 (51.1%) probable, and 3,169 (44.9%) suspected cases. The crude attack rate was 51.5 cases per 10,000 person-years, and epidemic doubling time was 4.4 days (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.2–4.7) during the exponential growth phase. The median age was 10 years (range 0–85), and 3,126 (44.3%) were male. The typical symptoms were sore throat (93.5%), fever (86.0%), pseudomembrane (34.7%), and gross cervical lymphadenopathy (GCL; 30.6%). Diphtheria antitoxin (DAT) was administered to 1,062 (89.0%) out of 1,193 eligible patients, with adverse reactions following among 229 (21.6%). There were 45 deaths (case fatality ratio [CFR] 0.6%). Household contacts for 5,702 (80.7%) of 7,064 cases were successfully traced. A total of 41,452 contacts were identified, of whom 40,364 (97.4%) consented to begin chemoprophylaxis; adherence was 55.0% (N = 22,218) at 3-day follow-up. Unvaccinated household contacts were vaccinated with 3 doses (with 4-week interval), while a booster dose was administered if the primary vaccination schedule had been completed. The proportion of contacts vaccinated was 64.7% overall. Three MVC rounds were conducted, with administrative coverage varying between 88.5% and 110.4%. Pentavalent vaccine was administered to those aged 6 weeks to 6 years, while tetanus and diphtheria (Td) vaccine was administered to those aged 7 years and older. Lack of adequate diagnostic capacity to confirm cases was the main limitation, with a majority of cases unconfirmed and the proportion of true diphtheria cases unknown. Conclusions To our knowledge, this is the largest reported diphtheria outbreak in refugee settings. We observed that high population density, poor living conditions, and fast growth rate were associated with explosive expansion of the outbreak during the initial exponential growth phase. Three rounds of mass vaccinations targeting those aged 6 weeks to 14 years were associated with only modestly reduced transmission, and additional public health measures were necessary to end the outbreak. This outbreak has a long-lasting tail, with Rt oscillating at around 1 for an extended period. An adequate global DAT stockpile needs to be maintained. All populations must have access to health services and routine vaccination, and this access must be maintained during humanitarian crises., Jonathan Polonsky and colleagues report on a diphtheria outbreak among Rohingya people in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh during 2017-19., Author summary Why was this study done? Following the mass displacement of a highly vulnerable Rohingya population from Myanmar to Bangladesh in 2017, a large outbreak of diphtheria, a vaccine-preventable disease, occurred and spread rapidly, eventually lasting over 2 years. A large-scale international response effort was mounted to respond to the crisis, involving case isolation and treatment; tracing their close contacts and administering preventive antibiotic treatment; and mass vaccination campaigns (MVCs). Few, if any, previous studies have documented the epidemiological, clinical, and public health response characteristics of large outbreaks of diphtheria among vulnerable populations. We aim to provide such information to inform future public health response efforts. What did the researchers do and find? Between November 2017 and November 2019, 7,064 cases of diphtheria were identified. Most of the cases were among children, although a larger than expected proportion occurred among adults. Case fatality was low, with just 45 deaths. Symptoms were typical of diphtheria: sore throat (93.5%), fever (86.0%), pseudomembrane (34.7%), and gross cervical lymphadenopathy (GCL; 30.6%). Diphtheria antitoxin (DAT) was administered to 1,062 (89.0%) out of 1,193 eligible patients, with adverse reactions following among 229 (21.6%). A total of 41,452 household contacts were identified, of whom 40,364 (97.4%) consented to chemoprophylactic antibiotic therapy. An MVC achieved high coverage among the target population. What do these findings mean? High population density, poor living conditions, and fast growth rate caused explosive expansion of the outbreak during the initial exponential growth phase. Three rounds of mass vaccinations targeting children were associated with only modest reductions in transmission, and additional public health measures were necessary to end the outbreak. Diphtheria outbreaks in refugee settings may have a long-lasting tail and may require additional public health measures, such as expanded target age groups for vaccination, to bring to an end. Ensuring laboratory capacity for differential diagnosis in remote field sites is an important challenge.

Despite its critical role in containing outbreaks, the efficacy of contact tracing, measured as the sensitivity of case detection, remains an elusive metric. We estimated the sensitivity of contact tracing by applying unilist capture-recapture methods on data from the 2018-2020 outbreak of Ebola virus disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. To compute sensitivity, we applied different distributional assumptions to the zero-truncated count data to estimate the number of unobserved case-patients with any contacts and infected contacts. Geometric distributions were the best-fitting models. Our results indicate that contact tracing efforts identified almost all (n = 792, 99%) of case-patients with any contacts but only half (n = 207, 48%) of case-patients with infected contacts, suggesting that contact tracing efforts performed well at identifying contacts during the listing stage but performed poorly during the contact follow-up stage. We discuss extensions to our work and potential applications for the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.

The 10th and largest Ebola virus disease epidemic in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) was declared in North Kivu Province in August 2018 and ended in June 2020. We describe and evaluate an Early Warning, Alert and Response System (EWARS) implemented in the Beni health zone of DRC during August 5, 2018-June 30, 2020. During this period, 194,768 alerts were received, of which 30,728 (15.8%) were validated as suspected cases. From these, 801 confirmed and 3 probable cases were detected. EWARS showed an overall good performance: sensitivity and specificity >80%, nearly all (97%) of alerts investigated within 2 hours of notification, and good demographic representativeness. The average cost of the system was US $438/case detected and US $1.8/alert received. The system was stable, despite occasional disruptions caused by political insecurity. Our results demonstrate that EWARS was a cost-effective component of the Ebola surveillance strategy in this setting.

Summary Outbreaks of disease in settings affected by crises grow rapidly due to late detection and weakened public health systems. Where surveillance is underfunctioning, community-based surveillance can contribute to rapid outbreak detection and response, a core capacity of the International Health Regulations. We reviewed articles describing the potential for community-based surveillance to detect diseases of epidemic potential, outbreaks, and mortality among populations affected by crises. Surveillance objectives have included the early warning of outbreaks, active case finding during outbreaks, case finding for eradication programmes, and mortality surveillance. Community-based surveillance can provide sensitive and timely detection, identify valid signals for diseases with salient symptoms, and provide continuity in remote areas during cycles of insecurity. Effectiveness appears to be mediated by operational requirements for continuous supervision of large community networks, verification of a large number of signals, and integration of community-based surveillance within the routine investigation and response infrastructure. Similar to all community health systems, community-based surveillance requires simple design, reliable supervision, and early and routine monitoring and evaluation to ensure data validity. Research priorities include the evaluation of syndromic case definitions, electronic data collection for community members, sentinel site designs, and statistical techniques to counterbalance false positive signals.

We report key epidemiologic parameter estimates for coronavirus disease identified in peer-reviewed publications, preprint articles, and online reports. Range estimates for incubation period were 1.8-6.9 days, serial interval 4.0-7.5 days, and doubling time 2.3-7.4 days. The effective reproductive number varied widely, with reductions attributable to interventions. Case burden and infection fatality ratios increased with patient age. Implementation of combined interventions could reduce cases and delay epidemic peak up to 1 month. These parameters for transmission, disease severity, and intervention effectiveness are critical for guiding policy decisions. Estimates will likely change as new information becomes available.

Background: Large-scale epidemics often occur in fragile states, and expand rapidly due to late disease detection, delays in pathogen confirmation, and weakened public health systems. The WHO recommends community-based surveillance to rapidly detect disease events in complex environments, displacement camps, and during epidemics. As such, community-based surveillance contributes to a core capacity of the International Health Regulations for rapid detection and response at the community-level which can facilitate immediate control measures. Methods: Using PubMed and EMBASE without date restrictions, we conducted a systematic review of articles and evaluations on community-based surveillance to describe the characteristics of community-based surveillance systems by crisis context, and to document and compare effectiveness for disease detection. Findings: 27 articles describing 23 community-based surveillance systems met the criteria for inclusion. We found that community-based surveillance has the potential to provide sensitive disease detection capacity, produce valid data that can provide early warning and enable targeting of interventions for at-risk populations, and can continue to operate during periods of acute crisis. However, it has important operational requirements for continuous training and supervision of large cadres of community health workers and volunteers, verification of validity of cases and events detected, and provision of technical assistance for implementation. Interpretation: Community-based surveillance is an important means of front-line detection and surveillance of outbreaks. Like other community systems, it requires planning and resource mobilization for technical assistance, supervision, and monitoring of performance. CBS should be integrated into formal surveillance systems to support not only early warning, but rapid verification and response. Funding: There was no specific source of funding used for this article. Declaration of Interest: All authors declare that they have no competing interests. Ethical Approval: Not applicable; This review did not involve human participants, human data, or human tissue.

Highlights • Real-time estimation of reproduction numbers during outbreaks can guide control. • Using up-to-date serial interval data and accounting for imported cases is vital. • We develop a framework for estimating pathogen transmissibility appropriately. • We demonstrate it using data from outbreaks of influenza, Ebola and MERS. • Our approach is implemented in R package EpiEstim and online application EpiEstim App., Accurate estimation of the parameters characterising infectious disease transmission is vital for optimising control interventions during epidemics. A valuable metric for assessing the current threat posed by an outbreak is the time-dependent reproduction number, i.e. the expected number of secondary cases caused by each infected individual. This quantity can be estimated using data on the numbers of observed new cases at successive times during an epidemic and the distribution of the serial interval (the time between symptomatic cases in a transmission chain). Some methods for estimating the reproduction number rely on pre-existing estimates of the serial interval distribution and assume that the entire outbreak is driven by local transmission. Here we show that accurate inference of current transmissibility, and the uncertainty associated with this estimate, requires: (i) up-to-date observations of the serial interval to be included, and; (ii) cases arising from local transmission to be distinguished from those imported from elsewhere. We demonstrate how pathogen transmissibility can be inferred appropriately using datasets from outbreaks of H1N1 influenza, Ebola virus disease and Middle-East Respiratory Syndrome. We present a tool for estimating the reproduction number in real-time during infectious disease outbreaks accurately, which is available as an R software package (EpiEstim 2.2). It is also accessible as an interactive, user-friendly online interface (EpiEstim App), permitting its use by non-specialists. Our tool is easy to apply for assessing the transmission potential, and hence informing control, during future outbreaks of a wide range of invading pathogens.

Actual rates were higher than rates calculated from healthcare facility reports., The 2010 cholera epidemic in Haiti was one of the largest cholera epidemics ever recorded. To estimate the magnitude of the death toll during the first wave of the epidemic, we retrospectively conducted surveys at 4 sites in the northern part of Haiti. Overall, 70,903 participants were included; at all sites, the crude mortality rates (19.1–35.4 deaths/1,000 person-years) were higher than the expected baseline mortality rate for Haiti (9 deaths/1,000 person-years). This finding represents an excess of 3,406 deaths (2.9-fold increase) for the 4.4% of the Haiti population covered by these surveys, suggesting a substantially higher cholera mortality rate than previously reported.

The Early Warning, Alert and Response System (EWARS) is a web-based system and mobile application for outbreak detection and response in emergency settings. EWARS provided timely information on epidemic-potential diseases among >700,000 Rohingya refugees across settlements. EWARS helped in targeting new measles vaccination campaigns and investigating suspected outbreaks of acute jaundice syndrome.

Background\ud \ud On May 8, 2018, the Government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo reported an outbreak of Ebola virus disease in Équateur Province in the northwest of the country. The remoteness of most affected communities and the involvement of an urban centre connected to the capital city and neighbouring countries makes this outbreak the most complex and high risk ever experienced by the Democratic Republic of the Congo. We provide early epidemiological information arising from the ongoing investigation of this outbreak.\ud Methods\ud \ud We classified cases as suspected, probable, or confirmed using national case definitions of the Democratic Republic of the Congo Ministère de la Santé Publique. We investigated all cases to obtain demographic characteristics, determine possible exposures, describe signs and symptoms, and identify contacts to be followed up for 21 days. We also estimated the reproduction number and projected number of cases for the 4-week period from May 25, to June 21, 2018.\ud Findings\ud \ud As of May 30, 2018, 50 cases (37 confirmed, 13 probable) of Zaire ebolavirus were reported in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. 21 (42%) were reported in Bikoro, 25 (50%) in Iboko, and four (8%) in Wangata health zones. Wangata is part of Mbandaka, the urban capital of Équateur Province, which is connected to major national and international transport routes. By May 30, 2018, 25 deaths from Ebola virus disease had been reported, with a case fatality ratio of 56% (95% CI 39–72) after adjustment for censoring. This case fatality ratio is consistent with estimates for the 2014–16 west African Ebola virus disease epidemic (p=0·427). The median age of people with confirmed or probable infection was 40 years (range 8–80) and 30 (60%) were male. The most commonly reported signs and symptoms in people with confirmed or probable Ebola virus disease were fever (40 [95%] of 42 cases), intense general fatigue (37 [90%] of 41 cases), and loss of appetite (37 [90%] of 41 cases). Gastrointestinal symptoms were frequently reported, and 14 (33%) of 43 people reported haemorrhagic signs. Time from illness onset and hospitalisation to sample testing decreased over time. By May 30, 2018, 1458 contacts had been identified, of which 746 (51%) remained under active follow-up. The estimated reproduction number was 1·03 (95% credible interval 0·83–1·37) and the cumulative case incidence for the outbreak by June 21, 2018, is projected to be 78 confirmed cases (37–281), assuming heterogeneous transmissibility.\ud Interpretation\ud \ud The ongoing Ebola virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has similar epidemiological features to previous Ebola virus disease outbreaks. Early detection, rapid patient isolation, contact tracing, and the ongoing vaccination programme should sufficiently control the outbreak. The forecast of the number of cases does not exceed the current capacity to respond if the epidemiological situation does not change. The information presented, although preliminary, has been essential in guiding the ongoing investigation and response to this outbreak.

IntroductionSelf-reported measles vaccination coverage is frequently used to inform vaccination strategies in resource-poor settings. However, little is known to what extent this is a reliable indicator of underlying seroprotection, information that could provide guidance ensuring the success of measles control and elimination strategies.MethodsAs part of a study exploring HIV infection and measles susceptibility, we conveniently sampled consenting HIV-uninfected patients presenting at the HIV voluntary counselling and testing centre, and HIV-infected patients presenting for regular care, in Chiradzulu district hospital, Malawi, between January and September 2012.ResultsA total of 2106 participants were recruited between January and September 2012, three quarters of whom were HIV positive. Vaccination cards were available for just 7 participants (0.36%). 91.9% of participants were measles seropositive.Older age (OR=1.11 per year increase in age; 95%CI: 1.09–1.14) and being female (OR=1.90; 95%CI: 1.26–2.87) were both associated with significantly increased odds for seroprotection. Prior vaccination history was associated with lower odds (Odds Ratio (OR)=0.44; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.22–0.85) for confirmed seropositivity. Previous measles infection was not significantly associated with seroprotection (OR=1.31; 95%CI: 0.49–3.51).Protection by history and serological status were concordant for 64.3% of participants

Background: HIV infection increases measles susceptibility in infants, but little is known about this relationship among older children and adults. We conducted a facility-based study to explore whether HIV status and/or CD4 count were associated with either measles seroprotection and/or measles antibody concentration. Methods: A convenience sample was recruited comprising HIV-infected patients presenting for follow-up care, and HIV-uninfected individuals presenting for HIV testing at Chiradzulu District Hospital, Malawi, from January to September 2012. We recorded age, sex, and reported measles vaccination and infection history. Blood samples were taken to determine the CD4 count and measles antibody concentration. Results: One thousand nine hundred and thirty-five participants were recruited (1434 HIV-infected and 501 HIV-uninfected). The majority of adults and approximately half the children were seroprotected against measles, with lower odds among HIV-infected children (adjusted odds ratio 0.27, 95% confidence interval 0.10–0.69; p = 0.006), but not adults. Among HIV-infected participants, neither CD4 count (p = 0.16) nor time on antiretroviral therapy (p = 0.25) were associated with measles antibody concentration, while older age (p

BackgroundThe International Health Regulations require member states to establish “capacity to detect, assess, notify and report events”. Event-based surveillance (EBS) can contribute to rapid detection of acute public health events. This is particularly relevant in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) which may have poor public health infrastructure. To identify best practices, we reviewed the literature on the implementation of EBS in LMICs to describe EBS structures and to evaluate EBS systems.MethodsWe conducted a systematic literature search of six databases to identify articles that evaluated EBS in LMICs and additionally searched for grey literature. We used a framework approach to facilitate qualitative data synthesis and exploration of patterns across and within articles.ResultsWe identified 778 records, of which we included 15 studies concerning 13 different EBS systems. The 13 EBS systems were set up as community-based surveillance, health facility-based surveillance or open surveillance (ie, notification by non-defined individuals and institutions). Four systems were set up in outbreak settings and nine outside outbreaks. All EBS systems were integrated into existing routine surveillance systems and pre-existing response structures to some extent. EBS was described as useful in detecting a large scope of events, reaching remote areas and guiding outbreak response.ConclusionHealth facility and community-based EBS provide valuable information that can strengthen the early warning function of national surveillance systems. Integration into existing early warning and response systems was described as key to generate data for action and to facilitate rapid verification and response. Priority in its implementation should be given to settings that would particularly benefit from EBS strengths. This includes areas most prone to outbreaks and where traditional ‘routine’ surveillance is suboptimal.

Background: Armed conflicts include declared cross-border and internal wars and political, ethnic, and religious hostilities. The number of conflicts worldwide and their level of intensity have varied widely during the last 5 decades. Tracking conflicts throughout this period has focused predominantly on the number of individuals killed or displaced from these hostilities through count-based estimation systems, or establishing rates of excess mortality from demographic surveys. This report focuses on people living in areas with conflict by applying an estimated level of conflict intensity to data on the population of each territory with hostilities during 1946 to 2007.Methods: Data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program/Peace Research Institute Oslo (UCDP/PRIO) Armed Conflict project database on 324 conflicts of any type in countries with populations greater than 500 000 were combined with conflict-intensity estimates from the Center for Systemic Peace and population data from the US Census Bureau International Data Base.Results: More than half a billion people lived in conflict-affected areas in 2007. An increasing proportion of those affected by conflict lived in early postconflict areas, where hostilities were judged or declared during the last 5 years. In the past 2 decades, the average intensity of conflict among those living in areas with a current conflict has gradually declined.Conclusions: A burgeoning population lives in areas where conflict has recently ended, yet most of the world's large-scale medical responses to emergencies focus on high-intensity conflicts. Effective emergency and reconstruction activities in the health sector will depend on reorganizing services to increasingly focus on and transition to low-level and postconflict environments.(Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2012;6:241–246)

The Darfur region of Sudan has been an intense focus of humanitarian concern since rebellions began there early in 2003. In 2004, the US Secretary of State declared that conflict in Darfur represented genocide. Since 2003, many sample surveys and various mortality estimates for Darfur have been made. Nonetheless, confusion and controversy surrounding mortality levels and trends have continued. For this project, results were reviewed from the highest quality field surveys on mortality in Darfur conducted between 2003 and 2008. Trend analysis demonstrated a dramatic decline in mortality over time in Darfur. By 2005, mortality levels had fallen below emergency levels and have continued to decline. Deaths directly due violence have declined as a proportion of all of the deaths in Darfur. Declining mortality in Darfur was not associated with other proximate improvements in well-being, such as improved nutrition. Without large-scale, humanitarian intervention, continuing high rates of mortality due to violence likely would have occurred. If mortality had continued at the high rate documented in 2004, by January 2009, there would have been 330,000 additional deaths. With the humanitarian assistance provided through the United Nations and non-governmental organizations, these people are alive today. A focus on excess deaths among non-combatants may draw attention away from other needs, such as establishing better security, improving service delivery to the displaced, and advocating for internally displaced persons to be reached today and to re-establish their lives and livelihoods tomorrow.

In 2013, a large measles epidemic occurred in the Aketi Health Zone of the Democratic Republic of Congo. We conducted a two-stage, retrospective cluster survey to estimate the attack rate, the case fatality rate, and the measles-specific mortality rate during the epidemic. 1424 households containing 7880 individuals were included. The estimated attack rate was 14.0%, (35.0% among children aged

Valid and timely information about various domains of public health underpins the effectiveness of humanitarian public health interventions in crises. However, obstacles including insecurity, insufficient resources and skills for data collection and analysis, and absence of validated methods combine to hamper the quantity and quality of public health information available to humanitarian responders. This paper, the second in a Series of four papers, reviews available methods to collect public health data pertaining to different domains of health and health services in crisis settings, including population size and composition, exposure to armed attacks, sexual and gender-based violence, food security and feeding practices, nutritional status, physical and mental health outcomes, public health service availability, coverage and effectiveness, and mortality. The paper also quantifies the availability of a minimal essential set of information in large armed conflict and natural disaster crises since 2010: we show that information was available and timely only in a small minority of cases. On the basis of this observation, we propose an agenda for methodological research and steps required to improve on the current use of available methods. This proposition includes setting up a dedicated interagency service for public health information and epidemiology in crises.

Background In 2010 and 2011, Haiti was heavily affected by a large cholera outbreak that spread throughout the country. Although national health structure-based cholera surveillance was rapidly initiated, a substantial number of community cases might have been missed, particularly in remote areas. We conducted a community-based survey in a large rural, mountainous area across four districts of the Nord department including areas with good versus poor accessibility by road, and rapid versus delayed response to the outbreak to document the true cholera burden and assess geographic distribution and risk factors for cholera mortality. Methodology/Principal Findings A two-stage, household-based cluster survey was conducted in 138 clusters of 23 households in four districts of the Nord Department from April 22nd to May 13th 2011. A total of 3,187 households and 16,900 individuals were included in the survey, of whom 2,034 (12.0%) reported at least one episode of watery diarrhea since the beginning of the outbreak. The two more remote districts, Borgne and Pilate were most affected with attack rates up to 16.2%, and case fatality rates up to 15.2% as compared to the two more accessible districts. Care seeking was also less frequent in the more remote areas with as low as 61.6% of reported patients seeking care. Living in remote areas was found as a risk factor for mortality together with older age, greater severity of illness and not seeking care. Conclusions/Significance These results highlight important geographical disparities and demonstrate that the epidemic caused the highest burden both in terms of cases and deaths in the most remote areas, where up to 5% of the population may have died during the first months of the epidemic. Adapted strategies are needed to rapidly provide treatment as well as prevention measures in remote communities., Author Summary In October 2010, a large cholera outbreak was declared in Haiti and rapidly spread throughout the country, quickly overwhelming the existing health system. Specialized treatment structures were opened rapidly, generally in cities or large villages, and decentralized treatment units or rehydration points were gradually opened later on. To gain insight into the true burden of the cholera outbreak in the community and on potential geographical differences due to accessibility, we conducted a survey in April–May 2011 in a large rural area across four mountainous districts in the Nord department. We interviewed 3,187 households, corresponding to 16,900 individuals, of whom 2,034 (12%) had had diarrhea, probably cholera, since the beginning of the outbreak. The two most remote districts showed higher proportions of population affected by the disease, up to 16.2%, and higher proportions of deaths among patients with probable cholera, up to 15.2%, than the two districts with better accessibility. Remote populations, older patients, severe cases and those not seeking care were at increased risk of dying of the disease. These results show the very high burden of the cholera outbreak in remote areas, emphasizing the need to develop strategies to rapidly provide treatment and prevention measures in remote communities.

Background Typhoid fever remains a significant public health problem in developing countries. In October 2011, a typhoid fever epidemic was declared in Harare, Zimbabwe - the fourth enteric infection epidemic since 2008. To orient control activities, we described the epidemiology and spatiotemporal clustering of the epidemic in Dzivaresekwa and Kuwadzana, the two most affected suburbs of Harare. Methods A typhoid fever case-patient register was analysed to describe the epidemic. To explore clustering, we constructed a dataset comprising GPS coordinates of case-patient residences and randomly sampled residential locations (spatial controls). The scale and significance of clustering was explored with Ripley K functions. Cluster locations were determined by a random labelling technique and confirmed using Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic. Principal Findings We analysed data from 2570 confirmed and suspected case-patients, and found significant spatiotemporal clustering of typhoid fever in two non-overlapping areas, which appeared to be linked to environmental sources. Peak relative risk was more than six times greater than in areas lying outside the cluster ranges. Clusters were identified in similar geographical ranges by both random labelling and Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic. The spatial scale at which typhoid fever clustered was highly localised, with significant clustering at distances up to 4.5 km and peak levels at approximately 3.5 km. The epicentre of infection transmission shifted from one cluster to the other during the course of the epidemic. Conclusions This study demonstrated highly localised clustering of typhoid fever during an epidemic in an urban African setting, and highlights the importance of spatiotemporal analysis for making timely decisions about targetting prevention and control activities and reinforcing treatment during epidemics. This approach should be integrated into existing surveillance systems to facilitate early detection of epidemics and identify their spatial range.

Outbreaks of Ebola and Marburg virus diseases have recently increased in frequency in Uganda. This increase is probably caused by a combination of improved surveillance and laboratory capacity, increased contact between humans and the natural reservoir of the viruses, and fluctuations in viral load and prevalence within this reservoir. The roles of these proposed explanations must be investigated in order to guide appropriate responses to the changing epidemiological profile. Other African settings in which multiple filoviral outbreaks have occurred could also benefit from such information.

Background In January 2010, Haiti was struck by a powerful earthquake, killing and wounding hundreds of thousands and leaving millions homeless. In order to better understand the severity of the crisis, and to provide early warning of epidemics or deteriorations in the health status of the population, Medecins Sans Frontieres established surveillance for infections of epidemic potential and for death rates and malnutrition prevalence. Methods Trends in infections of epidemic potential were detected through passive surveillance at health facilities serving as sentinel sites. Active community surveillance of death rates and malnutrition prevalence was established through weekly home visits. Results There were 102,054 consultations at the 15 reporting sites during the 26 week period of operation. Acute respiratory infections, acute watery diarrhoea and malaria/fever of unknown origin accounted for the majority of proportional morbidity among the diseases under surveillance. Several alerts were triggered through the detection of immediately notifiable diseases and increasing trends in some conditions. Crude and under-5 death rates, and acute malnutrition prevalence, were below emergency thresholds. Conclusion Disease surveillance after disasters should include an alert and response component, requiring investment of resources in informal networks that improve sensitivity to alerts as well as on the more common systems of data collection, compilation and analysis. Information sharing between partners is necessary to strengthen early warning systems. Community-based surveillance of mortality and malnutrition is feasible but requires careful implementation and validation.

This report from Uzbekistan describes the development of fluoroquinolone-resistant and extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis during second-line treatment for multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosi...

The province of North Kivu in the Democratic Republic of Congo has been afflicted by conflict for over a decade. After months of relative calm, offences restarted in September 2008. We did an epidemiological study to document the impact of violence on the civilian population and orient pre-existing humanitarian aid., info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Background During 2010, a community-based, sentinel site prospective surveillance system measured mortality, acute malnutrition prevalence, and the coverage of a Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) intervention in four sous-préfectures of Lobaye prefecture in southwestern Central African Republic. We describe this surveillance system and its evaluation. Methods Within 24 randomly selected sentinel sites, home visitors performed a census, weekly demographic surveillance of births, deaths, and in- or out-migration, and weekly anthropometry on a sample of children. We evaluated the system through various methods including capture-recapture analysis and repeat census. Results The system included 18,081 people at baseline. Over 32 weeks, the crude death rate was 1.0 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.8-1.2) deaths per 10,000 person-days (35 deaths per 1,000 person-years), with higher values during the rainy season. The under-5 death rate was approximately double. The prevalence of severe acute malnutrition (SAM) was 3.0% (95% CI: 2.3-4.0), almost half featuring kwashiorkor signs. The coverage of SAM treatment was 29.1%. The system detected >90% of deaths, and >90% of death reports appeared valid. However, demographic surveillance yielded discrepancies with the census and an implausible rate of population growth, while the predictive value of SAM classification was around 60%. Discussion We found evidence of a chronic health crisis in this remote region. MSF's intervention coverage improved progressively. Mortality data appeared valid, but inaccuracies in population denominators and anthropometric measurements were noted. Similar systems could be implemented in other remote settings and acute emergencies, but with certain technical improvements.

Background Following a rapid influx of over 200,000 displaced Somalis into the Dadaab refugee camp complex in Kenya, Médecins Sans Frontières conducted a mortality and nutrition survey of the population living in Bulo Bacte, a self-settled area surrounding Dagahaley camp (part of this complex). Methods The survey was conducted between 31st July and 10th August 2011. We exhaustively interviewed representatives from all households in Bulo Bacte, collecting information on deaths, births, and population movements during the recall period (15th February 2011 to survey date), in order to provide estimates of retrospective death rates. We recorded the mid-upper arm circumference and presence or absence of bipedal oedema of all children of height 67