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The majority of variation in six traits critical to the growth, survival and reproduction of plant species is thought to be organised along just two dimensions, corresponding to strategies of plant size and resource acquisition. However, it is unknown whether global plant trait relationships extend to climatic extremes, and if these interspecific relationships are confounded by trait variation within species. We test whether trait relationships extend to the cold extremes of life on Earth using the largest database of tundra plant traits yet compiled. We show that tundra plants demonstrate remarkably similar resource economic traits, but not size traits, compared to global distributions, and exhibit the same two dimensions of trait variation. Three quarters of trait variation occurs among species, mirroring global estimates of interspecific trait variation. Plant trait relationships are thus generalizable to the edge of global trait-space, informing prediction of plant community change in a warming world.

AimPlant functional groups are widely used in community ecology and earth system modelling to describe trait variation within and across plant communities. However, this approach rests on the assumption that functional groups explain a large proportion of trait variation among species. We test whether four commonly used plant functional groups represent variation in six ecologically important plant traits.LocationTundra biome.Time periodData collected between 1964 and 2016.Major taxa studied295 tundra vascular plant species.MethodsWe compiled a database of six plant traits (plant height, leaf area, specific leaf area, leaf dry matter content, leaf nitrogen, seed mass) for tundra species. We examined the variation in species-level trait expression explained by four traditional functional groups (evergreen shrubs, deciduous shrubs, graminoids, forbs), and whether variation explained was dependent upon the traits included in analysis. We further compared the explanatory power and species composition of functional groups to alternative classifications generated using post hoc clustering of species-level traits.ResultsTraditional functional groups explained significant differences in trait expression, particularly amongst traits associated with resource economics, which were consistent across sites and at the biome scale. However, functional groups explained 19% of overall trait variation and poorly represented differences in traits associated with plant size. Post hoc classification of species did not correspond well with traditional functional groups, and explained twice as much variation in species-level trait expression.Main conclusionsTraditional functional groups only coarsely represent variation in well-measured traits within tundra plant communities, and better explain resource economic traits than size-related traits. We recommend caution when using functional group approaches to predict tundra vegetation change, or ecosystem functions relating to plant size, such as albedo or carbon storage. We argue that alternative classifications or direct use of specific plant traits could provide new insights for ecological prediction and modelling.

Understanding the factors influencing species range limits is increasingly crucial in anticipating migrations due to human-caused climate change. In the boreal biome, ongoing climate change and the associated increases in the rate, size, and severity of disturbances may alter the distributions of boreal tree species. Notably, Interior Alaska lacks native pine, a biogeographical anomaly that carries implications for ecosystem structure and function. The current range of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) in the adjacent Yukon Territory may expand into Interior Alaska, particularly with human assistance. Evaluating the potential for pine expansion in Alaska requires testing constraints on range limits such as dispersal limitations, environmental tolerance limits, and positive or negative biotic interactions. In this study, we used field experiments with pine seeds and transplanted seedlings, complemented by model simulations, to assess the abiotic and biotic factors influencing lodgepole pine seedling establishment and growth after fire in Interior Alaska. We found that pine could successfully recruit, survive, grow, and reproduce across our broadly distributed network of experimental sites. Our results show that both mammalian herbivory and competition from native tree species are unlikely to constrain pine growth and that environmental conditions commonly found in Interior Alaska fall well within the tolerance limits for pine. If dispersal constraints are released, lodgepole pine could have a geographically expansive range in Alaska, and once established, its growth is sufficient to support pine-dominated stands. Given the impacts of lodgepole pine on ecosystem processes such as increases in timber production, carbon sequestration, landscape flammability, and reduced forage quality, natural or human-assisted migration of this species is likely to substantially alter responses of Alaskan forest ecosystems to climate change., (© 2024 The Ecological Society of America.)

Background and Aims: Stand-replacing crown fires are the most prevalent type of fire regime in boreal forests in North America. However, a substantial proportion of low-severity fires are found within fire perimeters. Here we aimed to investigate the effects of low-severity fires on the reproductive potential and seedling recruitment in boreal forests stands in between stand-replacing fire events., Methods: We recorded site and tree characteristics from 149 trees within twelve sites dominated by mature black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.] trees in the Northwest Territories, Canada. The presence of fire-scarred trees supported classification of sites as unburned or affected by low-severity fires in recent history. We used non-parametric tests to evaluate differences in site conditions between unburned and low-severity sites, and mixed effect models to evaluate differences in tree age, size, and reproductive traits among unburned trees and trees from low-severity sites., Key Results: Results showed significantly higher density of dead black spruce trees in low-severity sites, and marginally significant higher presence of permafrost. Trees from low-severity fire sites were significantly older, exhibited significantly lower tree growth, and showed a tendency towards a higher probability of cone presence and percentage of open cones compared to trees from unburned sites. Surviving fire-scarred trees affected by more recent low-severity fires showed a tendency towards higher probability of cone presence and cone production. Density of black spruce seedlings significantly increased with recent low-severity fires., Conclusions: Trees in low-severity sites appeared to have escaped mortality from up to three fires, as indicated by fire scar records and their older ages. Shallow permafrost at low-severity sites may cause lower flammability, allowing areas to act as fire refugia. Low-severity surface fires temporarily enhanced the reproductive capacity of surviving trees and the density of seedlings, likely as a stress response to the fire event., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For commercial re-use, please contact reprints@oup.com for reprints and translation rights for reprints. All other permissions can be obtained through our RightsLink service via the Permissions link on the article page on our site—for further information please contact journals.permissions@oup.com.)

The benefits of masting (volatile, quasi-synchronous seed production at lagged intervals) include satiation of seed predators, but these benefits come with a cost to mutualist pollen and seed dispersers. If the evolution of masting represents a balance between these benefits and costs, we expect mast avoidance in species that are heavily reliant on mutualist dispersers. These effects play out in the context of variable climate and site fertility among species that vary widely in nutrient demand. Meta-analyses of published data have focused on variation at the population scale, thus omitting periodicity within trees and synchronicity between trees. From raw data on 12 million tree-years worldwide, we quantified three components of masting that have not previously been analysed together: (i) volatility, defined as the frequency-weighted year-to-year variation; (ii) periodicity, representing the lag between high-seed years; and (iii) synchronicity, indicating the tree-to-tree correlation. Results show that mast avoidance (low volatility and low synchronicity) by species dependent on mutualist dispersers explains more variation than any other effect. Nutrient-demanding species have low volatility, and species that are most common on nutrient-rich and warm/wet sites exhibit short periods. The prevalence of masting in cold/dry sites coincides with climatic conditions where dependence on vertebrate dispersers is less common than in the wet tropics. Mutualist dispersers neutralize the benefits of masting for predator satiation, further balancing the effects of climate, site fertility and nutrient demands., (© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.)

Resilience of plant communities to disturbance is supported by multiple mechanisms, including ecological legacies affecting propagule availability, species' environmental tolerances, and biotic interactions. Understanding the relative importance of these mechanisms for plant community resilience supports predictions of where and how resilience will be altered with disturbance. We tested mechanisms underlying resilience of forests dominated by black spruce ( Picea mariana ) to fire disturbance across a heterogeneous forest landscape in the Northwest Territories, Canada. We combined surveys of naturally regenerating seedlings at 219 burned plots with experimental manipulations of ecological legacies via seed addition of four tree species and vertebrate exclosures to limit granivory and herbivory at 30 plots varying in moisture and fire severity. Black spruce recovery was greatest where it dominated pre-fire, at wet sites with deep residual soil organic layers, and fire conditions of low soil or canopy combustion and longer return intervals. Experimental addition of seed indicated all species were seed-limited, emphasizing the importance of propagule legacies. Black spruce and birch ( Betula papyrifera ) recruitment were enhanced with vertebrate exclusion. Our combination of observational and experimental studies demonstrates black spruce is vulnerable to effects of increased fire activity that erode ecological legacies. Moreover, black spruce relies on wet areas with deep soil organic layers where other species are less competitive. However, other species can colonize these areas if enough seed is available or soil moisture is altered by climate change. Testing mechanisms underlying species' resilience to disturbance aids predictions of where vegetation will transform with effects of climate change., Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10021-022-00772-7., (© The Author(s) 2022.)

The relationships that control seed production in trees are fundamental to understanding the evolution of forest species and their capacity to recover from increasing losses to drought, fire, and harvest. A synthesis of fecundity data from 714 species worldwide allowed us to examine hypotheses that are central to quantifying reproduction, a foundation for assessing fitness in forest trees. Four major findings emerged. First, seed production is not constrained by a strict trade-off between seed size and numbers. Instead, seed numbers vary over ten orders of magnitude, with species that invest in large seeds producing more seeds than expected from the 1:1 trade-off. Second, gymnosperms have lower seed production than angiosperms, potentially due to their extra investments in protective woody cones. Third, nutrient-demanding species, indicated by high foliar phosphorus concentrations, have low seed production. Finally, sensitivity of individual species to soil fertility varies widely, limiting the response of community seed production to fertility gradients. In combination, these findings can inform models of forest response that need to incorporate reproductive potential., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Significant gaps remain in understanding the response of plant reproduction to environmental change. This is partly because measuring reproduction in long-lived plants requires direct observation over many years and such datasets have rarely been made publicly available. Here we introduce MASTREE+, a data set that collates reproductive time-series data from across the globe and makes these data freely available to the community. MASTREE+ includes 73,828 georeferenced observations of annual reproduction (e.g. seed and fruit counts) in perennial plant populations worldwide. These observations consist of 5971 population-level time-series from 974 species in 66 countries. The mean and median time-series length is 12.4 and 10 years respectively, and the data set includes 1122 series that extend over at least two decades (≥20 years of observations). For a subset of well-studied species, MASTREE+ includes extensive replication of time-series across geographical and climatic gradients. Here we describe the open-access data set, available as a.csv file, and we introduce an associated web-based app for data exploration. MASTREE+ will provide the basis for improved understanding of the response of long-lived plant reproduction to environmental change. Additionally, MASTREE+ will enable investigation of the ecology and evolution of reproductive strategies in perennial plants, and the role of plant reproduction as a driver of ecosystem dynamics., (© 2022 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Tree fecundity and recruitment have not yet been quantified at scales needed to anticipate biogeographic shifts in response to climate change. By separating their responses, this study shows coherence across species and communities, offering the strongest support to date that migration is in progress with regional limitations on rates. The southeastern continent emerges as a fecundity hotspot, but it is situated south of population centers where high seed production could contribute to poleward population spread. By contrast, seedling success is highest in the West and North, serving to partially offset limited seed production near poleward frontiers. The evidence of fecundity and recruitment control on tree migration can inform conservation planning for the expected long-term disequilibrium between climate and forest distribution., Competing Interests: Competing interest statement: M.B., W.D.K., and I.S.P. are collaborators on a 2020 review with T.W., (Copyright © 2021 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.)

Intensifying wildfire activity and climate change can drive rapid forest compositional shifts. In boreal North America, black spruce shapes forest flammability and depends on fire for regeneration. This relationship has helped black spruce maintain its dominance through much of the Holocene. However, with climate change and more frequent and severe fires, shifts away from black spruce dominance to broadleaf or pine species are emerging, with implications for ecosystem functions including carbon sequestration, water and energy fluxes, and wildlife habitat. Here, we predict that such reductions in black spruce after fire may already be widespread given current trends in climate and fire. To test this, we synthesize data from 1,538 field sites across boreal North America to evaluate compositional changes in tree species following 58 recent fires (1989 to 2014). While black spruce was resilient following most fires (62%), loss of resilience was common, and spruce regeneration failed completely in 18% of 1,140 black spruce sites. In contrast, postfire regeneration never failed in forests dominated by jack pine, which also possesses an aerial seed bank, or broad-leaved trees. More complete combustion of the soil organic layer, which often occurs in better-drained landscape positions and in dryer duff, promoted compositional changes throughout boreal North America. Forests in western North America, however, were more vulnerable to change due to greater long-term climate moisture deficits. While we find considerable remaining resilience in black spruce forests, predicted increases in climate moisture deficits and fire activity will erode this resilience, pushing the system toward a tipping point that has not been crossed in several thousand years., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest., (Copyright © 2021 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.)

Wildfire frequency and extent is increasing throughout the boreal forest-tundra ecotone as climate warms. Understanding the impacts of wildfire throughout this ecotone is required to make predictions of the rate and magnitude of changes in boreal-tundra landcover, its future flammability, and associated feedbacks to the global carbon (C) cycle and climate. We studied 48 sites spanning a gradient from tundra to low-density spruce stands that were burned in an extensive 2013 wildfire on the north slope of the Alaska Range in Denali National Park and Preserve, central Alaska. We assessed wildfire severity and C emissions, and determined the impacts of severity on understory vegetation composition, conifer tree recruitment, and active layer thickness (ALT). We also assessed conifer seed rain and used a seeding experiment to determine factors controlling post-fire tree regeneration. We found that an average of 2.18 ± 1.13 Kg C m-2 was emitted from this fire, almost 95% of which came from burning of the organic soil. On average, burn depth of the organic soil was 10.6 ± 4.5 cm and both burn depth and total C combusted increased with pre-fire conifer density. Sites with higher pre-fire conifer density were also located at warmer and drier landscape positions and associated with increased ALT post-fire, greater changes in pre- and post-fire understory vegetation communities, and higher post-fire boreal tree recruitment. Our seed rain observations and seeding experiment indicate that the recruitment potential of conifer trees is limited by seed availability in this forest-tundra ecotone. We conclude that the expected climate-induced forest infilling (i.e. increased density) at the forest-tundra ecotone could increase fire severity, but this infilling is unlikely to occur without increases in the availability of viable seed., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

In boreal forests, climate warming is shifting the wildfire disturbance regime to more frequent fires that burn more deeply into organic soils, releasing sequestered carbon to the atmosphere. To understand the destabilization of carbon storage, it is necessary to consider these effects in the context of long-term ecological change. In Alaskan boreal forests, we found that shifts in dominant plant species catalyzed by severe fire compensated for greater combustion of soil carbon over decadal time scales. Severe burning of organic soils shifted tree dominance from slow-growing black spruce to fast-growing deciduous broadleaf trees, resulting in a net increase in carbon storage by a factor of 5 over the disturbance cycle. Reduced fire activity in future deciduous-dominated boreal forests could increase the tenure of this carbon on the landscape, thereby mitigating the feedback to climate warming., (Copyright © 2021 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.)

Boreal wildfires are increasing in intensity, extent, and frequency, potentially intensifying carbon emissions and transitioning the region from a globally significant carbon sink to a source. The productive southern boreal forests of central Canada already experience relatively high frequencies of fire, and as such may serve as an analog of future carbon dynamics for more northern forests. Fire-carbon dynamics in southern boreal systems are relatively understudied, with limited investigation into the drivers of pre-fire carbon stocks or subsequent combustion. As part of NASA's Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment, we sampled 79 stands (47 burned, 32 unburned) throughout central Saskatchewan to characterize above- and belowground carbon stocks and combustion rates in relation to historical land use, vegetation characteristics, and geophysical attributes. We found southern boreal forests emitted an average of 3.3 ± 1.1 kg C/m 2 from field sites. The emissions from southern boreal stands varied as a function of stand age, fire weather conditions, ecozone, and soil moisture class. Sites affected by historical timber harvesting had greater combustion rates due to faster carbon stock recovery rates than sites recovering from wildfire events, indicating that different boreal forest land use practices can generate divergent carbon legacy effects. We estimate the 2015 fire season in Saskatchewan emitted a total of 36.3 ± 15.0 Tg C, emphasizing the importance of southern boreal fires for regional carbon budgets. Using the southern boreal as an analog, the northern boreal may undergo fundamental shifts in forest structure and carbon dynamics, becoming dominated by stands <70 years old that hold 2-7 kg C/m 2 less than current mature northern boreal stands. Our latitudinal approach reinforces previous studies showing that northern boreal stands are at a high risk of holding less carbon under changing disturbance conditions., (© 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Nitrogen (N 2 )-fixing moss microbial communities play key roles in nitrogen cycling of boreal forests. Forest type and leaf litter inputs regulate moss abundance, but how they control moss microbiomes and N 2 -fixation remains understudied. We examined the impacts of forest type and broadleaf litter on microbial community composition and N 2 -fixation rates of Hylocomium splendens and Pleurozium schreberi. We conducted a moss transplant and leaf litter manipulation experiment at three sites with paired paper birch (Betula neoalaskana) and black spruce (Picea mariana) stands in Alaska. We characterized bacterial communities using marker gene sequencing, determined N 2 -fixation rates using stable isotopes ( 15 N 2 ) and measured environmental covariates. Mosses native to and transplanted into spruce stands supported generally higher N 2 -fixation and distinct microbial communities compared to similar treatments in birch stands. High leaf litter inputs shifted microbial community composition for both moss species and reduced N 2 -fixation rates for H. splendens, which had the highest rates. N 2 -fixation was positively associated with several bacterial taxa, including cyanobacteria. The moss microbiome and environmental conditions controlled N 2 -fixation at the stand and transplant scales. Predicted shifts from spruce- to deciduous-dominated stands will interact with the relative abundances of mosses supporting different microbiomes and N 2 -fixation rates, which could affect stand-level N inputs., (© 2020 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2020 New Phytologist Trust.)

Fire is a primary disturbance in boreal forests and generates both positive and negative climate forcings. The influence of fire on surface albedo is a predominantly negative forcing in boreal forests, and one of the strongest overall, due to increased snow exposure in the winter and spring months. Albedo forcings are spatially and temporally heterogeneous and depend on a variety of factors related to soils, topography, climate, land cover/vegetation type, successional dynamics, time since fire, season, and fire severity. However, how these variables interact to influence albedo is not well understood, and quantifying these relationships and predicting postfire albedo becomes increasingly important as the climate changes and management frameworks evolve to consider climate impacts. Here we developed a MODIS-derived 'blue sky' albedo product and a novel machine learning modeling framework to predict fire-driven changes in albedo under historical and future climate scenarios across boreal North America. Converted to radiative forcing (RF), we estimated that fires generate an annual mean cooling of -1.77 ± 1.35 W/m 2 from albedo under historical climate conditions (1971-2000) integrated over 70 years postfire. Increasing postfire albedo along a south-north climatic gradient was offset by a nearly opposite gradient in solar insolation, such that large-scale spatial patterns in RF were minimal. Our models suggest that climate change will lead to decreases in mean annual postfire albedo, and hence a decreasing strength of the negative RF, a trend dominated by decreased snow cover in spring months. Considering the range of future climate scenarios and model uncertainties, we estimate that for fires burning in the current era (2016) the cooling effect from long-term postfire albedo will be reduced by 15%-28% due to climate change., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Boreal forest fires emit large amounts of carbon into the atmosphere primarily through the combustion of soil organic matter 1-3 . During each fire, a portion of this soil beneath the burned layer can escape combustion, leading to a net accumulation of carbon in forests over multiple fire events 4 . Climate warming and drying has led to more severe and frequent forest fires 5-7 , which threaten to shift the carbon balance of the boreal ecosystem from net accumulation to net loss 1 , resulting in a positive climate feedback 8 . This feedback will occur if organic-soil carbon that escaped burning in previous fires, termed 'legacy carbon', combusts. Here we use soil radiocarbon dating to quantitatively assess legacy carbon loss in the 2014 wildfires in the Northwest Territories of Canada 2 . We found no evidence for the combustion of legacy carbon in forests that were older than the historic fire-return interval of northwestern boreal forests 9 . In forests that were in dry landscapes and less than 60 years old at the time of the fire, legacy carbon that had escaped burning in the previous fire cycle was combusted. We estimate that 0.34 million hectares of young forests (<60 years) that burned in the 2014 fires could have experienced legacy carbon combustion. This implies a shift to a domain of carbon cycling in which these forests become a net source-instead of a sink-of carbon to the atmosphere over consecutive fires. As boreal wildfires continue to increase in size, frequency and intensity 7 , the area of young forests that experience legacy carbon combustion will probably increase and have a key role in shifting the boreal carbon balance.

Wildfire is the dominant disturbance in boreal forests and fire activity is increasing in these regions. Soil fungal communities are important for plant growth and nutrient cycling postfire but there is little understanding of how fires impact fungal communities across landscapes, fire severity gradients, and stand types in boreal forests. Understanding relationships between fungal community composition, particularly mycorrhizas, and understory plant composition is therefore important in predicting how future fire regimes may affect vegetation. We used an extreme wildfire event in boreal forests of Canada's Northwest Territories to test drivers of fungal communities and assess relationships with plant communities. We sampled soils from 39 plots 1 year after fire and 8 unburned plots. High-throughput sequencing (MiSeq, ITS) revealed 2,034 fungal operational taxonomic units. We found soil pH and fire severity (proportion soil organic layer combusted), and interactions between these drivers were important for fungal community structure (composition, richness, diversity, functional groups). Where fire severity was low, samples with low pH had higher total fungal, mycorrhizal, and saprotroph richness compared to where severity was high. Increased fire severity caused declines in richness of total fungi, mycorrhizas, and saprotrophs, and declines in diversity of total fungi and mycorrhizas. The importance of stand age (a surrogate for fire return interval) for fungal composition suggests we could detect long-term successional patterns even after fire. Mycorrhizal and plant community composition, richness, and diversity were weakly but significantly correlated. These weak relationships and the distribution of fungi across plots suggest that the underlying driver of fungal community structure is pH, which is modified by fire severity. This study shows the importance of edaphic factors in determining fungal community structure at large scales, but suggests these patterns are mediated by interactions between fire and forest stand composition., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Future changes in climate are widely anticipated to increase fire frequency, particularly in boreal forests where extreme warming is expected to occur. Feedbacks between vegetation and fire may modify the direct effects of warming on fire activity and shape ecological responses to changing fire frequency. We investigate these interactions using extensive field data from the Boreal Shield of Saskatchewan, Canada, a region where >40% of the forest has burned in the past 30 years. We use geospatial and field data to assess the resistance and resilience of eight common vegetation states to frequent fire by quantifying the occurrence of short-interval fires and their effect on recovery to a similar vegetation state. These empirical relationships are combined with data from published literature to parameterize a spatially explicit, state-and-transition simulation model of fire and forest succession. We use this model to ask if and how: (a) feedbacks between vegetation and wildfire may modify fire activity on the landscape, and (b) more frequent fire may affect landscape forest composition and age structure. Both field and GIS data suggest the probability of fire is low in the initial decades after fire, supporting the hypothesis that fuel accumulation may exert a negative feedback on fire frequency. Field observations of pre- and postfire composition indicate that switches in forest state are more likely in conifer stands that burn at a young age, supporting the hypothesis that resilience is lower in immature stands. Stands dominated by deciduous trees or jack pine were generally resilient to fire, while mixed conifer and well-drained spruce forests were less resilient. However, simulation modeling suggests increased fire activity may result in large changes in forest age structure and composition, despite the feedbacks between vegetation-fire likely to occur with increased fire activity., (© 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The tundra is warming more rapidly than any other biome on Earth, and the potential ramifications are far-reaching because of global feedback effects between vegetation and climate. A better understanding of how environmental factors shape plant structure and function is crucial for predicting the consequences of environmental change for ecosystem functioning. Here we explore the biome-wide relationships between temperature, moisture and seven key plant functional traits both across space and over three decades of warming at 117 tundra locations. Spatial temperature-trait relationships were generally strong but soil moisture had a marked influence on the strength and direction of these relationships, highlighting the potentially important influence of changes in water availability on future trait shifts in tundra plant communities. Community height increased with warming across all sites over the past three decades, but other traits lagged far behind predicted rates of change. Our findings highlight the challenge of using space-for-time substitution to predict the functional consequences of future warming and suggest that functions that are tied closely to plant height will experience the most rapid change. They also reveal the strength with which environmental factors shape biotic communities at the coldest extremes of the planet and will help to improve projections of functional changes in tundra ecosystems with climate warming.

Climate warming and drying is associated with increased wildfire disturbance and the emergence of megafires in North American boreal forests. Changes to the fire regime are expected to strongly increase combustion emissions of carbon (C) which could alter regional C balance and positively feedback to climate warming. In order to accurately estimate C emissions and thereby better predict future climate feedbacks, there is a need to understand the major sources of heterogeneity that impact C emissions at different scales. Here, we examined 211 field plots in boreal forests dominated by black spruce (Picea mariana) or jack pine (Pinus banksiana) of the Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada after an unprecedentedly large area burned in 2014. We assessed both aboveground and soil organic layer (SOL) combustion, with the goal of determining the major drivers in total C emissions, as well as to develop a high spatial resolution model to scale emissions in a relatively understudied region of the boreal forest. On average, 3.35 kg C m -2 was combusted and almost 90% of this was from SOL combustion. Our results indicate that black spruce stands located at landscape positions with intermediate drainage contribute the most to C emissions. Indices associated with fire weather and date of burn did not impact emissions, which we attribute to the extreme fire weather over a short period of time. Using these results, we estimated a total of 94.3 Tg C emitted from 2.85 Mha of burned area across the entire 2014 NWT fire complex, which offsets almost 50% of mean annual net ecosystem production in terrestrial ecosystems of Canada. Our study also highlights the need for fine-scale estimates of burned area that represent small water bodies and regionally specific calibrations of combustion that account for spatial heterogeneity in order to accurately model emissions at the continental scale., (© 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Increasing wildfire activity in Alaska's boreal forests has led to greater fuel-reduction management. Management has been implemented to reduce wildfire spread, but the ecological impacts of these practices are poorly known. We quantified the effects of hand-thinning and shearblading on above- and belowground stand characteristics, plant species composition, carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) pools, and soil thaw across 19 sites dominated by black spruce (Picea mariana) in interior Alaska treated 2-12 years prior to sampling. The density of deciduous tree seedlings was significantly higher in shearbladed areas compared to unmanaged forest (6.4 vs. 0.1 stems/m 2 ), and unmanaged stands exhibited the highest mean density of conifer seedlings and layers (1.4 stems/m 2 ). Understory plant community composition was most similar between unmanaged and thinned stands. Shearblading resulted in a near complete loss of aboveground tree biomass C pools while thinning approximately halved the C pool size (1.2 kg C/m 2 compared to 3.1 kg C/m 2 in unmanaged forest). Significantly smaller soil organic layer (SOL) C and N pools were observed in shearbladed stands (3.2 kg C/m 2 and 116.8 g N/m 2 ) relative to thinned (6.0 kg C/m 2 and 192.2 g N/m 2 ) and unmanaged (5.9 kg C/m 2 and 178.7 g N/m 2 ) stands. No difference in C and N pool sizes in the uppermost 10 cm of mineral soil was observed among stand types. Total C stocks for measured pools was 2.6 kg C/m 2 smaller in thinned stands and 5.8 kg C/m 2 smaller in shearbladed stands when compared to unmanaged forest. Soil thaw depth averaged 13 cm deeper in thinned areas and 46 cm deeper in shearbladed areas relative to adjacent unmanaged stands, although variability was high across sites. Deeper soil thaw was linked to shallower SOL depth for unmanaged stands and both management types, however for any given SOL depth, thaw tended to be deeper in shearbladed areas compared to unmanaged forest. These findings indicate that fuel-reduction management alters plant community composition, C and N pools, and soil thaw depth, with consequences for ecosystem structure and function beyond those intended for fire management., (© 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.)

Climate change is expected to increase the extent and severity of wildfires throughout the boreal forest. Historically, black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) forests in interior Alaska have been relatively free of non-native species, but the compounding effects of climate change and an altered fire regime could facilitate the expansion of non-native plants. We tested the effects of wildfire on non-native plant colonization by conducting a seeding experiment of non-native plants on different substrate types in a burned black spruce forest, and surveying for non-native plants in recently burned and mature black spruce forests. We found few non-native plants in burned or mature forests, despite their high roadside presence, although invasion of some burned sites by dandelion (Taraxacum officinale) indicated the potential for non-native plants to move into burned forest. Experimental germination rates were significantly higher on mineral soil compared to organic soil, indicating that severe fires that combust much of the organic layer could increase the potential for non-native plant colonization. We conclude that fire disturbances that remove the organic layer could facilitate the invasion of non-native plants providing there is a viable seed source and dispersal vector., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Long-term experiments provide a way to test presumed causes of successional or environmentally driven vegetation changes. Early-successional nitrogen (N)-fixing plants are widely thought to facilitate productivity and vegetation development on N-poor sites, thus accounting for observed vegetation patterns later in succession. We tested this facilitative impact on vegetation development in a 23-yr field experiment on an Interior Alaska (USA) floodplain. On three replicate early-successional silt bars, we planted late-successional white spruce (Picea glauca) seedlings in the presence and absence of planted seedlings of an early-successional N-fixing shrub, thinleaf alder (Alnus incana). Alder initially facilitated survivorship and growth of white spruce. Within six years, however, after canopy closure, alder negatively affected spruce survivorship and growth. Our three replicate sites followed different successional trajectories. One site was eliminated by erosion and supported no vegetation development during our study. The other two sites, which differed in site moisture, diverged in vegetation composition. Structural equation modeling (SEM) suggested that, in the drier of these two sites, alder inhibited spruce growth directly (presumably by competition) and indirectly through effects mediated by competition with other woody species. However, at the wetter site, alder had both positive and negative effects on spruce growth, with negative effects predominating. Snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus) in alder thickets further reduced height growth of spruce in the wetter site. We conclude that net effects of alder on white spruce, the late-successional dominant, were primarily inhibitory and indirect, with the mechanisms depending on initial site moisture. Our results highlight the importance of long-term research showing that small differences among initial replicate sites can cause divergence in successional trajectories, consistent with individualistic distributions of species and communities along environmental gradients. This divergence was detectable only decades later., (© 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.)

Disturbance plays a key role in driving ecological responses by creating opportunities for new ecological communities to assemble and by directly influencing the outcomes of assembly. Legacy effects (such as seed banks) and environmental filters can both influence community assembly, but their effects are impossible to separate with observational data. Here, we used seeding experiments in sites covering a broad range of postdisturbance conditions to tease apart the effects of seed availability, environmental factors, and disturbance characteristics on early community assembly after fire. We added seed of four common boreal trees to experimental plots in 55 replicate sites in recently burned areas of black spruce forest in northwestern North America. Seed addition treatments increased the probability of occurrence for all species, indicating a widespread potential for seed limitation to affect patterns of recruitment after fire. Small-seeded. species (aspen and birch) were most sensitive to environmental factors such as soil moisture and organic layer depth, suggesting a role for niche-based environmental filtering in community assembly. Fire characteristics related to severity and frequency were also important drivers of seedling regeneration, indicating the potential for disturbance to mediate environmental filters and legacy effects on seed availability. Because effects of seed availability are typically impossible to disentangle from environmental constraints on recruitment in observational studies, legacy effects contingent on vegetation history may be misinterpreted as being driven by strong environmental filters. Results from the seeding experiments suggest that vegetation legacies affecting seed availability play a pivotal role in shaping patterns of community assembly after fire in these low-diversity boreal forests.

Unprecedented rates of climate warming over the past century have resulted in increased forest stress and mortality worldwide. Decreased tree growth in association with increasing temperatures is generally accepted as a signal of temperature-induced drought stress. However, variations in tree growth alone do not reveal the physiological mechanisms behind recent changes in tree growth. Examining stable carbon isotope composition of tree rings in addition to tree growth can provide a secondary line of evidence for physiological drought stress. In this study, we examined patterns of black spruce growth and carbon isotopic composition in tree rings in response to climate warming and drying in the boreal forest of interior Alaska. We examined trees at three nested scales: landscape, toposequence, and a subsample of trees within the toposequence. At each scale, we studied the potential effects of differences in microclimate and moisture availability by sampling on northern and southern aspects. We found that black spruce radial growth responded negatively to monthly metrics of temperature at all examined scales, and we examined ∆(13)C responses on a subsample of trees as representative of the wider region. The negative ∆(13)C responses to temperature reveal that black spruce trees are experiencing moisture stress on both northern and southern aspects. Contrary to our expectations, ∆(13)C from trees on the northern aspect exhibited the strongest drought signal. Our results highlight the prominence of drought stress in the boreal forest of interior Alaska. We conclude that if temperatures continue to warm, we can expect drought-induced productivity declines across large regions of the boreal forest, even for trees located in cool and moist landscape positions., (© 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Mast-seeding conifers such as Picea glauca exhibit synchronous production of large seed crops over wide areas, suggesting climate factors as possible triggers for episodic high seed production. Rapidly changing climatic conditions may thus alter the tempo and spatial pattern of masting of dominant species with potentially far-reaching ecological consequences. Understanding the future reproductive dynamics of ecosystems including boreal forests, which may be dominated by mast-seeding species, requires identifying the specific cues that drive variation in reproductive output across landscape gradients and among years. Here we used annual data collected at three sites spanning an elevation gradient in interior Alaska, USA between 1986 and 2011 to produce the first quantitative models for climate controls over both seedfall and seed viability in P. glauca, a dominant boreal conifer. We identified positive associations between seedfall and increased summer precipitation and decreased summer warmth in all years except for the year prior to seedfall. Seed viability showed a contrasting response, with positive correlations to summer warmth in all years analyzed except for one, and an especially positive response to warm and wet conditions in the seedfall year. Finally, we found substantial reductions in reproductive potential of P. glauca at high elevation due to significantly reduced seed viability there. Our results indicate that major variation in the reproductive potential of this species may occur in different landscape positions in response to warming, with decreasing reproductive success in areas prone to drought stress contrasted with increasing success in higher elevation areas currently limited by cool summer temperatures.

Experiments using controlled manipulation of climate variables in the field are critical for developing and testing mechanistic models of ecosystem responses to climate change. Despite rapid changes in climate observed in many high latitude and high altitude environments, controlled manipulations in these remote regions have largely been limited to passive experimental methods with variable effects on environmental factors. In this study, we tested a method of controlled soil warming suitable for remote field locations that can be powered using alternative energy sources. The design was tested in high latitude, alpine tundra of southern Yukon Territory, Canada, in 2010 and 2011. Electrical warming probes were inserted vertically in the near-surface soil and powered with photovoltaics attached to a monitoring and control system. The warming manipulation achieved a stable target warming of 1.3 to 2 °C in 1 m(2) plots while minimizing disturbance to soil and vegetation. Active control of power output in the warming plots allowed the treatment to closely match spatial and temporal variations in soil temperature while optimizing system performance during periods of low power supply. Active soil heating with vertical electric probes powered by alternative energy is a viable option for remote sites and presents a low-disturbance option for soil warming experiments. This active heating design provides a valuable tool for examining the impacts of soil warming on ecosystem processes.

Disturbance can both initiate and shape patterns of secondary succession by affecting processes of community assembly. Thus, understanding assembly rules is a key element of predicting ecological responses to changing disturbance regimes. We measured the composition and trait characteristics of plant communities early after widespread wildfires in Alaska to assess how variations in disturbance characteristics influenced the relative success of different plant regeneration strategies. We compared patterns of post-fire community composition and abundance of regeneration traits across a range of fire severities within a single pre-fire forest type- black spruce forests of Interior Alaska. Patterns of community composition, as captured by multivariate ordination with nonmetric multidimensional scaling, were primarily related to gradients in fire severity (biomass combustion and residual vegetation) and secondarily to gradients in soil pH and regional climate. This pattern was apparent in both the full dataset (n = 87 sites) and for a reduced subset of sites (n = 49) that minimized the correlation between site moisture and fire severity. Changes in community composition across the fire-severity gradient in Alaska were strongly correlated to variations in plant regeneration strategy and rooting depth. The tight coupling of fire severity with regeneration traits and vegetation composition after fire supports the hypothesis that disturbance characteristics influence patterns of community assembly by affecting the relative success of different regeneration strategies. This study further demonstrated that variations in disturbance characteristics can dominate over environmental constraints in determining early patterns of community assembly. By affecting the success of regeneration traits, changes in fire regime directly shape the outcomes of community assembly, and thus may override the effects of slower environmental change on boreal forest composition.

Fine-scale spatial variation in genetic relatedness and inbreeding occur across continuous distributions of several populations of vertebrates; however, the basis of observed variation is often left untested. Here we test the hypothesis that prior observations of spatial patterns in genetics for an island population of feral horses (Sable Island, Canada) were the result of spatial variation in population dynamics, itself based in spatial heterogeneity in underlying habitat quality. In order to assess how genetic and population structuring related to habitat, we used hierarchical cluster analysis of water sources and an indicator analysis of the availability of important forage species to identify a longitudinal gradient in habitat quality along the length of Sable Island. We quantify a west-east gradient in access to fresh water and availability of two important food species to horses: sandwort, Honckenya peploides, and beach pea, Lathyrus japonicas. Accordingly, the population clusters into three groups that occupy different island segments (west, central, and east) that vary markedly in their local dynamics. Density, body condition, and survival and reproduction of adult females were highest in the west, followed by central and east areas. These results mirror a previous analysis of genetics, which showed that inbreeding levels are highest in the west (with outbreeding in the east), and that there are significant differences in fixation indices among groups of horses along the length of Sable Island. Our results suggest that inbreeding depression is not an important limiting factor to the horse population. We conclude that where habitat gradients exist, we can anticipate fine-scale heterogeneity in population dynamics and hence genetics.

Canopy-forming shrubs are reported to be increasing at sites around the circumpolar Arctic. Our results indicate expansion in canopy cover and height of willows on Herschel Island located at 70 degrees north on the western Arctic coast of the Yukon Territory. We examined historic photographs, repeated vegetation surveys, and conducted monitoring of long-term plots and found evidence of increases of each of the dominant canopy-forming willow species (Salix richardsonii, Salix glauca and Salix pulchra), during the twentieth century. A simple model of patch initiation indicates that the majority of willow patches for each of these species became established between 1910 and 1960, with stem ages and maximum growth rates indicating that some patches could have established as late as the 1980s. Collectively, these results suggest that willow species are increasing in canopy cover and height on Herschel Island. We did not find evidence that expansion of willow patches is currently limited by herbivory, disease, or growing conditions.

Understanding the responses of tundra systems to global change has global implications. Most tundra regions lack sustained environmental monitoring and one of the only ways to document multi-decadal change is to resample historic research sites. The International Polar Year (IPY) provided a unique opportunity for such research through the Back to the Future (BTF) project (IPY project #512). This article synthesizes the results from 13 papers within this Ambio Special Issue. Abiotic changes include glacial recession in the Altai Mountains, Russia; increased snow depth and hardness, permafrost warming, and increased growing season length in sub-arctic Sweden; drying of ponds in Greenland; increased nutrient availability in Alaskan tundra ponds, and warming at most locations studied. Biotic changes ranged from relatively minor plant community change at two sites in Greenland to moderate change in the Yukon, and to dramatic increases in shrub and tree density on Herschel Island, and in subarctic Sweden. The population of geese tripled at one site in northeast Greenland where biomass in non-grazed plots doubled. A model parameterized using results from a BTF study forecasts substantial declines in all snowbeds and increases in shrub tundra on Niwot Ridge, Colorado over the next century. In general, results support and provide improved capacities for validating experimental manipulation, remote sensing, and modeling studies.

The northern Great Plains of Saskatchewan is one of the most significantly modified landscapes in Canada. While the majority of anthropogenic disturbances to Saskatchewan's grasslands are the result of agricultural practices, development of petroleum and natural gas (PNG) resources is of increasing concern for grassland conservation. Although PNG developments require formal assessment and regulatory approval, follow-up and monitoring of the effects of PNG development on grasslands is not common practice. Consequently, the effects of PNG activity on grasslands and the spatial and temporal extent of such impacts are largely unknown. This paper examines the spatial and temporal extent of PNG development infrastructure from 1955 to 2006 in a grassland ecosystem in southwest Saskatchewan. The effects of PNG development on grassland ecology were assessed from measurements of ground cover characteristics, soil properties, and plant community composition at 31 sites in the study area. PNG lease sites were found to have low cover of herbaceous plants, club moss (Lycopodiaceae), litter, and shallow organic (Ah) horizons. Lease sites were also characterized by low diversity of desirable grassland plants and low range health values compared to off-lease reference sites. These impacts were amplified at active and highly productive lease sites. Impacts of PNG development persisted for more than 50 years following well site construction, and extended outward 20 m-25 m beyond the direct physical footprint of PNG well infrastructure. These results have significant implications with regard to the current state of monitoring and follow-up of PNG development, and the cumulative effective of PNG activity on grassland ecosystems over space and time., (Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

The boreal region stores a large proportion of the world's terrestrial carbon (C) and is subject to high-intensity, stand-replacing wildfires that release C and nitrogen (N) stored in biomass and soils through combustion. While severity and extent of fires drives overall emissions, methods for accurately estimating fire severity are poorly tested in this unique region where organic soil combustion is responsible for a large proportion of total emissions. We tested a method using adventitious roots on black spruce trees (Picea mariana) in combination with canopy allometry to reconstruct prefire organic soil layers and canopy biomass in boreal black spruce forests of Alaska (USA), thus providing a basis for more accurately quantifying fire severity levels. We calibrated this adventitious-root-height method in unburned spruce stands and then tested it by comparing our biomass and soils estimates reconstructed in burned stands with actual prefire stand measurements. We applied this approach to 38 black spruce stands burned in 2004 in Alaska, where we measured organic soil and stand characteristics and estimated the amount of soil and canopy biomass, as well as C and N pools, consumed by fire. These high-intensity quantitative estimates of severity were significantly correlated to a semiquantitative visual rapid assessment tool, the composite burn index (CBI). This index has proved useful for assessing fire severity in forests in the western United States but has not yet been widely tested in the boreal forest. From our study, we conclude that using postfire measurements of adventitious roots on black spruce trees in combination with soils and tree data can be used to reconstruct prefire organic soil depths and biomass pools, providing accurate estimates of fire severity and emissions. Furthermore, using our quantitative reconstruction we show that CBI is a reasonably good predictor of biomass and soil C loss at these sites, and it shows promise for rapidly estimating fire severity across a wide range of boreal black spruce forest types, especially where the use of high-intensity measurements may be limited by cost and time.

In this article we extend the theory of community prediction by presenting seven hypotheses for predicting community structure in a directionally changing world. The first three address well-studied community responses to environmental and ecological change: ecological communities are most likely to exhibit threshold changes in structure when perturbations cause large changes in limiting soil or sediment resources, dominant or keystone species, or attributes of disturbance regime that influence community recruitment. Four additional hypotheses address social-ecological interactions and apply to both ecological communities and social-ecological systems. Human responsiveness to short-term and local costs and benefits often leads to human actions with unintended long-term impacts, particularly those that are far from the site of decision making or are geographically dispersed. Policies are usually based on past conditions of ecosystem services rather than expected future trends. Finally, institutions that strengthen negative feedbacks between human actions and social-ecological consequences can reduce human impacts through more responsive (and thus more effective) management of public ecosystem services. Because of the large role that humans play in modifying ecosystems and ecosystem services, it is particularly important to test and improve social-ecological hypotheses as a basis for shaping appropriate policies for long-term ecosystem resilience.

Objective: 11Beta-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase type 2 (11beta-HSD2) is thought to act as a placental barrier protecting the fetus from high levels of maternal cortisol. On the other hand, intrauterine infection is one of the main causes of preterm birth and adverse fetal outcome, and pro-inflammatory cytokines may contribute to these adverse effects. However, the effect of pro-inflammatory cytokines on 11beta-HSD2 is still not clear. Therefore, we have evaluated the effect of tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha) and interleukin-1beta (IL-1beta) on 11beta-HSD2 in cultured human placental trophoblast and in human choriocarcinoma JEG-3 cells., Methods: Placental trophoblast cells were isolated from human term placenta. Placental trophoblast cells and JEG-3 cells were treated with TNF-alpha (0.1-10 ng/mL) or IL-1beta (0.1-10 ng/mL). Real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction and Western blot were used to study the regulation of 11beta-HSD2 expression. 11beta-HSD2 activity was determined by measuring the rate of cortisol to cortisone conversion in the culture medium using thin-layer chromatography (TLC)., Results: In placental trophoblast, TNF-alpha and IL-1beta down-regulated 11beta-HSD2 mRNA expression and activity (both P <.05). The protein level was decreased only with IL-1beta (P <.05). In JEG-3 cells, 11beta-HSD2 mRNA was decreased by TNF-alpha but up-regulated by IL-1beta, with no significant change in protein expression and activity., Conclusion: Our results suggest caution in interpreting data using JEG-3 cells. However, our studies with primary trophoblast suggest that TNF-alpha and IL-1beta may increase the amount of cortisol crossing to the placenta and fetal circulation by attenuating 11beta-HSD2 activity, potentially contributing to preterm labor and altered fetal outcome in uterine infection.

Objective: Preterm birth is one of the major problems faced in perinatal medicine and is often associated with underlying clinical infection. Treatment with maternal betamethasone has helped to improve neonatal morbidity and mortality. We hypothesized that betamethasone treatment and chorioamnionitis would alter the bioavailability of placental glucocorticoids through the regulation of the 11beta hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase (11beta HSD) isozymes and the glucocorticoid receptor (GR)., Methods: Placental samples were obtained from three groups of women who delivered prematurely: (1) those who delivered in the absence of infection, (2) those who received betamethasone treatment before delivering without infection, and (3) those who had pregnancies complicated with chorioamnionitis. Western blotting was used to determine 11beta HSD-1, 11beta HSD-2, GRT, and GRalpha expression, and 11beta HSD-2 activity was determined in each group. JEG-3 cells were used to study the regulation of the 11beta HSD isozymes., Results: In cases of chorioamnionitis where mothers had not been treated with betamethasone, placental 32-kd 11beta HSD-1 protein expression was increased. In cases of chorioamnionitis regardless of betamethasone treatment, placental 11beta HSD-2 expression and activity was decreased compared to controls. In these placental samples, the expression of GRT and GRalpha did not change significantly. In JEG-3 cells, 11beta HSD-1 32-kd expression was increased with interleukin (IL)-1beta and tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-alpha), while 11beta HSD-2 expression was unaffected., Conclusion: These data suggest that there could be an increased fetal exposure to maternal glucocorticoids in cases of chorioamnionitis as a result of changes in the expression and activity of the placental 11beta HSD isozymes.

Changes in boreal climate of the magnitude projected for the 21st century have always caused vegetation changes large enough to be societally important. However, the rates and patterns of vegetation change are difficult to predict. We review evidence suggesting that these vegetation changes may be gradual at the northern forest limit or where seed dispersal limits species distribution. However, forest composition may be quite resilient to climate change in the central portions of a species range until some threshold is surpassed. At this point, changes can be rapid and unexpected, often causing a switch to very different ecosystem types. Many of these triggers for change are amenable to management, suggesting that our choice of policies in the coming decades will substantially influence the ecological and societal consequences of current climatic change.