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The observed excess carbon 14 in the atmosphere from 1963 to 1970 provides unique, but limited, data up to an altitude of about 35 km for testing the air motions calculated by 11 multidimensional atmospheric models. Strontium 90 measurements in the atmosphere from 1964 to mid-1967 provide data that have more latitude coverage than those of carbon 14 and are useful for testing combined models of air motions and aerosol settling. Model calculations for carbon 14 begin at October 1963, 9 months after the conclusion of the nuclear bomb tests; the initial conditions for the calculations are derived by three methods, each of which agrees fairly well with measured carbon 14 in October 1963 and each of which has widely different values in regions of the stratosphere where there were no carbon 14 measurements. The model results are compared to the stratospheric measurements, not as if the observed data were absolute standards, but in an effort to obtain new insight about the models and about the atmosphere. The measured carbon 14 vertical profiles at 31 deg N are qualitatively different from all of the models; the measured vertical profiles show a maximum mixing ratio in the altitude range of 20 to 25 km from October 1963 through July 1966, but all modeled profiles show mixing ratio maxima that increase in altitude from 20 km in October 1963 to greater than 40 km by April 1966. Both carbon 14 and strontium 90 data indicate that the models differ substantially among themselves with respect to stratosphere-troposphere exchange rate, but the modeled carbon 14 stratospheric residence times indicate that differences among the models are small with respect to transport rate between the middle stratosphere and the lower stratosphere. Strontium 90 data indicate that aerosol settling is important up to at least 35 km altitude. Relative to the measurements, about three quarters of the models transport carbon 14 from the lower stratosphere to the troposphere too rapidly, and all models with all three sets of initial conditions appear to sweep carbon 14 out of the midstratosphere (above 28 km) much more slowly than was observed from 1963 to 1970. Atmospheric dynamicists should seriously consider that the carbon 14 measurements imply with respect to advection in the midstratosphere.

In the early 1970's, a fleet of supersonic aircraft flying in the lower stratosphere was proposed. A large fleet was never built for economic, political, and environmental reasons. Technological improvements may make it economically feasible to develop supersonic aircraft for current markets. Some key results of earlier scientific programs designed to assess the impact of aircraft emissions on stratospheric ozone are reviewed, and factors that must be considered to assess the environmental impact of aircraft exhaust are discussed. These include the amount of nitrogen oxides injected in the stratosphere, horizontal transport, and stratosphere/troposphere assessment models are presented. Areas in which improvements in scientific understanding and model representation must be made to reduce the uncertainty in model calculations are identified.

The predictions of several one-dimensional models were examined for a number of prescribed scenarios in steady-state or time-dependent approximations. A small number of two-dimensional steady-state calculations for a limited number of scenarios were compared with the results of one-dimensional models. The sensitivity of the calculated predictions to the values of input parameters were examined in order to assess recognized uncertainties in these predictions.