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The Northeast region with nearly 25 percent of the U.S. population and purchasing power in 1983 is a deficit region in both processing and fresh market vegetable crops. This study explores the underlying factors in the long post-World War II decline in Northeastern vegetable production. It evaluates the economic viability of small-scale, family operated vegetable farms with emphasis on Maryland and the Baltimore-Washington Wholesale Market outlet near Jessup, Maryland.Preliminary results of our study indicate that, under certain conditions, small-scale family farms can grow and commercially market fresh-market vegetables at competitive prices, and generate healthy cash flows. The optimum mix of crops would include up to three, non-competing crop sequences, with four different vegetable crops including spinach, snap beans, tomatoes and broccoli. Family (owner-operator) labor was found to be a major resource constraint on volume of vegetables marketed, especially tomatoes. Potentials for future expansion in selected crops seem to exist with improved technology and better management.

Part-time farming in Maryland and the Northeast with full-time off-farm employment of one or more of the farm operators is competitive income-wise with many types and sizes of commercial farms. Individuals, families, and society in general will benefit in the future from the encouragement of fuller utilization of underutilized or unemployed rural resources to produce marketable agricultural output and subsistence types of food for household and local charitable purposes. Labor extensive types of crop and animal production activities have increased relatively and absolutely during the past decade on Maryland and Northeastern part-time farms. Average characteristics of a sample of 80 part-time farmers showed 1) age of male operator – 44 years, 2) education of operator − 12 years, 3) number of children on the farm − 3 children, 4) years of experience in farming − 15 years, 5) days of off-farm employment − 225 days, 6) proximity of off-farm job to a major metropolitan center − 20 miles and 7) distance to off-farm job − 29 miles.

During the past several decades, a number of research publications have used Markov chain processes to predict changes in number of farm firms, the average size of farms and labor resource productivity in farm production (Conneman, Harris and Wilson, Judge and Swanson, Kottke, Seyala, Willett and Saupe, Wysong and Seyala). The Markov method assumes that the pattern of change exhibited in the past will continue into the future. This method provides information on historical changes by frequency distribution categories as well as for the whole cohort, and allows for projection of these changes into the future. Previous studies have used mainly short-run periods of up to 5 years as the primary data base. This study has considered the use of longer-run base periods of 10 to 20 years combined with periodic updating of sample data in projecting long-term trends in numbers and sizes of dairy farms and revising such projections through time.