1. Cost-Effectiveness of Universal Screening for Blunt Cerebrovascular Injury: A Markov Analysis
- Author
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Ayman Ali, Jacob M Broome, Danielle Tatum, Youssef Abdullah, Jonathan Black, John Tyler Simpson, Ali Salim, Juan Duchesne, and Sharven Taghavi
- Subjects
Surgery - Abstract
Blunt cerebrovascular injury (BCVI) is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality following blunt trauma. Numerous screening strategies exist, although which is used is institution and physician dependent. We sought to identify the most cost-effective screening strategy for BCVI, hypothesizing that universal screening would be optimal among the screening strategies studied.A Markov decision analysis model was used to compare the following screening strategies for identification of BCVI: (1) no screening (NS); (2) Denver criteria (DC); (3) extended Denver criteria (eDC); (4) Memphis criteria (MC); and (5) universal screening. The base-case scenario modeled 50-year-old patients with blunt traumatic injury excluding isolated extremity injures. Patients with BCVI detected on imaging were assumed to be treated with antithrombotic therapy, subsequently decreasing risk of stroke and mortality. One-way sensitivity analyses were performed on key model inputs. A single year horizon was utilized with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) threshold of $100,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY).The most cost-effective screening strategy for patients with blunt trauma among the strategies analyzed was universal screening. This method resulted in the lowest stroke rate, mortality, cost, and highest QALY. An estimated 3,506 strokes would be prevented annually as compared to eDC (ICER of $71,949 for universal screening vs. ICER of $12,736 for eDC per QALY gained) if universal screening were implemented in the United States. In one-way sensitivity analyses, universal screening was the optimal strategy when the incidence of BCVI was6%.This model suggests universal screening may be the cost-effective strategy for BCVI screening in blunt trauma for certain trauma centers. Trauma centers should develop institutional protocols that take into account individual BCVI rates.
- Published
- 2022
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