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The new single-pixel TROPESS (TRopospheric Ozone and its Precursors from Earth System Sounding) profile retrievals of carbon monoxide (CO) from the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) are evaluated using vertical profiles of in situ observations from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Global Monitoring Laboratory (GML) aircraft program and from the Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom) campaigns. The TROPESS optimal estimation retrievals are produced using the MUSES (MUlti-SpEctra, MUlti-SpEcies, MUlti-Sensors) algorithm, which has heritage from retrieval algorithms developed for the EOS/Aura Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES). TROPESS products provide retrieval diagnostics and error covariance matrices that propagate instrument noise as well as the uncertainties from sequential retrievals of parameters such as temperature and water vapor that are required to estimate the carbon monoxide profiles. The validation approach used here evaluates biases in column and profile values as well as the validity of the retrieval error estimates using the mean and variance of the compared satellite and aircraft observations. CrIS–NOAA GML comparisons had biases of 0.6 % for partial column average volume mixing ratios (VMRs) and (2.3, 0.9, −4.5) % for VMRs at (750, 511, 287) hPa vertical levels, respectively, with standard deviations from 9 % to 14 %. CrIS–ATom comparisons had biases of −0.04 % for partial column and (2.2, 0.5, −3.0) % for (750, 511, 287) hPa vertical levels, respectively, with standard deviations from 6 % to 10 %. The reported observational errors for TROPESS/CrIS CO profiles have the expected behavior with respect to the vertical pattern in standard deviation of the comparisons. These comparison results give us confidence in the use of TROPESS/CrIS CO profiles and error characterization for continuing the multi-decadal record of satellite CO observations.

The seasonal-to-decadal terrestrial water balance on river basin scales depends on several well-characterized but uncertain soil physical processes, including soil moisture, plant available water, rooting depth, and recharge to lower soil layers. Reducing uncertainties in these quantities using observations is a key step toward improving the data fidelity and skill of land surface models. In this study, we quantitatively characterize the capability of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (NASA-GRACE) measurements – a key constraint on total water storage (TWS) – to inform and constrain these processes. We use a reduced-complexity physically based model capable of simulating the hydrologic cycle, and we apply Bayesian inference on the model parameters using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm, to minimize mismatches between model-simulated and GRACE-observed TWS anomalies. Based on the prior and posterior model parameter distributions, we further quantify information gain with regard to terrestrial water states, associated fluxes, and time-invariant process parameters. We show that the data-constrained terrestrial water storage model can capture basic physics of the hydrologic cycle for a watershed in the western Amazon during the period January 2003 through December 2012, with an r2 of 0.98 and root mean square error of 30.99 mm between observed and simulated TWS. Furthermore, we show a reduction of uncertainty in many of the parameters and state variables, ranging from a 2 % reduction in uncertainty for the porosity parameter to an 85 % reduction for the rooting depth parameter. The annual and interannual variability of the system are also simulated accurately, with the model simulations capturing the impacts of the 2005–2006 and 2010–2011 South American droughts. The results shown here suggest the potential of using gravimetric observations of TWS to identify and constrain key parameters in soil hydrologic models.

We present an updated version of the Global Fuel Exploitation Inventory (GFEI) for methane emissions and evaluate it with results from global inversions of atmospheric methane observations from satellite (GOSAT) and in situ platforms (GLOBALVIEWplus). GFEI allocates methane emissions from oil, gas, and coal sectors and subsectors to a 0.1∘ × 0.1∘ grid by using the national emissions reported by individual countries to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and mapping them to infrastructure locations. Our updated GFEI v2 gives annual emissions for 2010–2019 that incorporate the most recent UNFCCC national reports, new oil–gas well locations, and improved spatial distribution of emissions for Canada, Mexico, and China. Russia's oil–gas emissions in its latest UNFCCC report (4.1 Tg a−1 for 2019) decrease by 83 % compared to its previous report while Nigeria's latest reported oil–gas emissions (3.1 Tg a−1 for 2016) increase 7-fold compared to its previous report, reflecting changes in assumed emission factors. Global gas emissions in GFEI v2 show little net change from 2010 to 2019 while oil emissions decrease and coal emissions slightly increase. Global emissions from the oil, gas, and coal sectors in GFEI v2 (26, 22, and 33 Tg a−1, respectively in 2019) are lower than the EDGAR v6 inventory (32, 44, and 37 Tg a−1 in 2018) and lower than the IEA inventory for oil and gas (38 and 43 Tg a−1 in 2019), though there is considerable variability between inventories for individual countries. GFEI v2 estimates higher emissions by country than the Climate TRACE inventory, with notable exceptions in Russia, the US, and the Middle East where TRACE is up to an order of magnitude higher than GFEI v2. Inversion results using GFEI as a prior estimate confirm the lower Russian emissions in the latest UNFCCC report but find that Nigeria's reported UNFCCC emissions are too high. Oil–gas emissions are generally underestimated by the national inventories for the highest emitting countries including the US, Venezuela, Uzbekistan, Canada, and Turkmenistan. Offshore emissions tend to be overestimated. Our updated GFEI v2 provides a platform for future evaluation of national emission inventories reported to the UNFCCC using the newer generation of satellite instruments such as TROPOMI with improved coverage and spatial resolution. This increased observational data density will be especially beneficial in regions where current inversion systems have limited sensitivity including Russia. Our work responds to recent aspirations of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to integrate top-down and bottom-up information into the construction of national emission inventories.

We quantify methane emissions and their 2010–2017 trends by sector in the contiguous United States (CONUS), Canada, and Mexico by inverse analysis of in situ (GLOBALVIEWplus CH4 ObsPack) and satellite (GOSAT) atmospheric methane observations. The inversion uses as a prior estimate the national anthropogenic emission inventories for the three countries reported by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), and the Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático (INECC) in Mexico to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and thus serves as an evaluation of these inventories in terms of their magnitudes and trends. Emissions are optimized with a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) at 0.5∘×0.625∘ resolution and for individual years. Optimization is done analytically using lognormal error forms. This yields closed-form statistics of error covariances and information content on the posterior (optimized) estimates, allows better representation of the high tail of the emission distribution, and enables construction of a large ensemble of inverse solutions using different observations and assumptions. We find that GOSAT and in situ observations are largely consistent and complementary in the optimization of methane emissions for North America. Mean 2010–2017 anthropogenic emissions from our base GOSAT + in situ inversion, with ranges from the inversion ensemble, are 36.9 (32.5–37.8) Tg a−1 for CONUS, 5.3 (3.6–5.7) Tg a−1 for Canada, and 6.0 (4.7–6.1) Tg a−1 for Mexico. These are higher than the most recent reported national inventories of 26.0 Tg a−1 for the US (EPA), 4.0 Tg a−1 for Canada (ECCC), and 5.0 Tg a−1 for Mexico (INECC). The correction in all three countries is largely driven by a factor of 2 underestimate in emissions from the oil sector with major contributions from the south-central US, western Canada, and southeastern Mexico. Total CONUS anthropogenic emissions in our inversion peak in 2014, in contrast to the EPA report of a steady decreasing trend over 2010–2017. This reflects offsetting effects of increasing emissions from the oil and landfill sectors, decreasing emissions from the gas sector, and flat emissions from the livestock and coal sectors. We find decreasing trends in Canadian and Mexican anthropogenic methane emissions over the 2010–2017 period, mainly driven by oil and gas emissions. Our best estimates of mean 2010–2017 wetland emissions are 8.4 (6.4–10.6) Tg a−1 for CONUS, 9.9 (7.8–12.0) Tg a−1 for Canada, and 0.6 (0.4–0.6) Tg a−1 for Mexico. Wetland emissions in CONUS show an increasing trend of +2.6 (+1.7 to +3.8)% a−1 over 2010–2017 correlated with precipitation.

We review the capability of current and scheduled satellite observations of atmospheric methane in the shortwave infrared (SWIR) to quantify methane emissions from the global scale down to point sources. We cover retrieval methods, precision and accuracy requirements, inverse and mass balance methods for inferring emissions, source detection thresholds, and observing system completeness. We classify satellite instruments as area flux mappers and point source imagers, with complementary attributes. Area flux mappers are high-precision ( %) instruments with 0.1–10 km pixel size designed to quantify total methane emissions on regional to global scales. Point source imagers are fine-pixel ( m) instruments designed to quantify individual point sources by imaging of the plumes. Current area flux mappers include GOSAT (2009–present), which provides a high-quality record for interpretation of long-term methane trends, and TROPOMI (2018–present), which provides global continuous daily mapping to quantify emissions on regional scales. These instruments already provide a powerful resource to quantify national methane emissions in support of the Paris Agreement. Current point source imagers include the GHGSat constellation and several hyperspectral and multispectral land imaging sensors (PRISMA, Sentinel-2, Landsat-8/9, WorldView-3), with detection thresholds in the 100–10 000 kg h−1 range that enable monitoring of large point sources. Future area flux mappers, including MethaneSAT, GOSAT-GW, Sentinel-5, GeoCarb, and CO2M, will increase the capability to quantify emissions at high resolution, and the MERLIN lidar will improve observation of the Arctic. The averaging times required by area flux mappers to quantify regional emissions depend on pixel size, retrieval precision, observation density, fraction of successful retrievals, and return times in a way that varies with the spatial resolution desired. A similar interplay applies to point source imagers between detection threshold, spatial coverage, and return time, defining an observing system completeness. Expanding constellations of point source imagers including GHGSat and Carbon Mapper over the coming years will greatly improve observing system completeness for point sources through dense spatial coverage and frequent return times.

Accurate accounting of emissions and removals of CO2 is critical for the planning and verification of emission reduction targets in support of the Paris Agreement. Here, we present a pilot dataset of country-specific net carbon exchange (NCE; fossil plus terrestrial ecosystem fluxes) and terrestrial carbon stock changes aimed at informing countries' carbon budgets. These estimates are based on “top-down” NCE outputs from the v10 Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2) modeling intercomparison project (MIP), wherein an ensemble of inverse modeling groups conducted standardized experiments assimilating OCO-2 column-averaged dry-air mole fraction (XCO2) retrievals (ACOS v10), in situ CO2 measurements or combinations of these data. The v10 OCO-2 MIP NCE estimates are combined with “bottom-up” estimates of fossil fuel emissions and lateral carbon fluxes to estimate changes in terrestrial carbon stocks, which are impacted by anthropogenic and natural drivers. These flux and stock change estimates are reported annually (2015–2020) as both a global 1∘ × 1∘ gridded dataset and a country-level dataset and are available for download from the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites' (CEOS) website: https://doi.org/10.48588/npf6-sw92 (Byrne et al., 2022). Across the v10 OCO-2 MIP experiments, we obtain increases in the ensemble median terrestrial carbon stocks of 3.29–4.58 Pg CO2 yr−1 (0.90–1.25 Pg C yr−1). This is a result of broad increases in terrestrial carbon stocks across the northern extratropics, while the tropics generally have stock losses but with considerable regional variability and differences between v10 OCO-2 MIP experiments. We discuss the state of the science for tracking emissions and removals using top-down methods, including current limitations and future developments towards top-down monitoring and verification systems.

We use optimal estimation (OE) to quantify methane fluxes based on total column CH4 data from the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) and the GEOS-Chem global chemistry transport model. We then project these fluxes to emissions by sector at 1∘ resolution and then to each country using a new Bayesian algorithm that accounts for prior and posterior uncertainties in the methane emissions. These estimates are intended as a pilot dataset for the global stock take in support of the Paris Agreement. However, differences between the emissions reported here and widely used bottom-up inventories should be used as a starting point for further research because of potential systematic errors of these satellite-based emissions estimates. We find that agricultural and waste emissions are ∼ 263 ± 24 Tg CH4 yr−1, anthropogenic fossil emissions are 82 ± 12 Tg CH4 yr−1, and natural wetland/aquatic emissions are 180 ± 10 Tg CH4 yr−1. These estimates are consistent with previous inversions based on GOSAT data and the GEOS-Chem model. In addition, anthropogenic fossil estimates are consistent with those reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (80.4 Tg CH4 yr−1 for 2019). Alternative priors can be easily tested with our new Bayesian approach (also known as prior swapping) to determine their impact on posterior emissions estimates. We use this approach by swapping to priors that include much larger aquatic emissions and fossil emissions (based on isotopic evidence) and find little impact on our posterior fluxes. This indicates that these alternative inventories are inconsistent with our remote sensing estimates and also that the posteriors reported here are due to the observing and flux inversion system and not uncertainties in the prior inventories. We find that total emissions for approximately 57 countries can be resolved with this observing system based on the degrees-of-freedom for signal metric (DOFS > 1.0) that can be calculated with our Bayesian flux estimation approach. Below a DOFS of 0.5, estimates for country total emissions are more weighted to our choice of prior inventories. The top five emitting countries (Brazil, China, India, Russia, USA) emit about half of the global anthropogenic budget, similar to our choice of prior emissions but with the posterior emissions shifted towards the agricultural sector and less towards fossil emissions, consistent with our global posterior results. Our results suggest remote-sensing-based estimates of methane emissions can be substantially different (although within uncertainty) than bottom-up inventories, isotopic evidence, or estimates based on sparse in situ data, indicating a need for further studies reconciling these different approaches for quantifying the methane budget. Higher-resolution fluxes calculated from upcoming satellite or aircraft data such as the Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) and those in formulation such as the Copernicus CO2M, MethaneSat, or Carbon Mapper can be incorporated into our Bayesian estimation framework for the purpose of reducing uncertainty and improving the spatial resolution and sectoral attribution of subsequent methane emissions estimates.

Estimating the impacts of climate change on the global carbon cycle relies on projections from Earth system models (ESMs). While ESMs currently project large warming in the high northern latitudes, the magnitude and sign of the future carbon balance of Arctic-Boreal ecosystems are highly uncertain. The new generation of increased complexity ESMs in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report (IPCC AR6) is intended to improve future climate projections. Here, we benchmark the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) 5 and 6 (8 CMIP5 members and 12 CMIP6 members) with the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) tool over the region of NASA’s Arctic-Boreal vulnerability experiment (ABoVE) in North America. We show that the projected average net biome production (NBP) in 2100 from CMIP6 is higher than that from CMIP5 in the ABoVE domain, despite the model spread being slightly narrower. Overall, CMIP6 shows better agreement with contemporary observed carbon cycle variables (photosynthesis, respiration, biomass) than CMIP5, except for soil carbon and turnover time. Although both CMIP ensemble members project the ABoVE domain will remain a carbon sink by the end of the 21st century, the sink strength in CMIP6 increases with CO2 emissions. CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles indicate a tipping point defined here as a negative inflection point in the NBP curve by 2050–2080 independently of the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) for CMIP6 or representative concentration pathway (RCP) for CMIP5. The model ensembles therefore suggest that, if the carbon sink strength keeps declining throughout the 21st century, the Arctic-Boreal ecosystems in North America may become a carbon source over the next century.

We use 2010–2015 GOSAT satellite observations of atmospheric methane columns over North America in a high- resolution inversion of methane emissions, including contributions from different sectors and long-term trends. The inversion involves analytical solution to the Bayesian optimization problem for a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) of the emission field with up to 0.5° × 0.625° resolution in concentrated source regions. Analytical solution provides a closed-form characterization of the information content from the inversion and facilitates the construction of a large ensemble of solutions exploring the effect of different uncertainties and assumptions. Prior estimates for the inversion include a gridded version of the EPA Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks (GHGI) and the WetCHARTS model ensemble for wetlands. Our best estimate for mean 2010–2015 US anthropogenic emissions is 30.6 (range: 29.4–31.3) Tg a-1, slightly higher than the gridded EPA inventory (28.7 (26.4–36.2) Tg a-1). The main discrepancy is for the oil and gas production sectors where we find higher emissions than the GHGI by 35 % and 22 % respectively. The most recent version of the EPA GHGI revises downward its estimate of emissions from oil production and we find that these are a factor 2 lower than our estimate. Our best estimate of US wetland emissions is 10.2 (5.6–11.1) Tg a-1, on the low end of the prior WetCHARTS inventory uncertainty range (14.2 (3.3–32.4) Tg a-1) and calling for better understanding of these emissions. We find an increasing trend in US anthropogenic emissions over 2010–2015 of 0.4 % a-1, lower than previous GOSAT-based estimates but opposite to the decrease reported by the EPA GHGI. Most of this increase appears driven by unconventional oil/gas production in the eastern US. We also find that oil/gas production emissions in Mexico are higher than in the nationally reported inventory, though there is evidence for a 2010–2015 decrease in emissions from offshore oil production.

We evaluate the uncertainties of methane optimal estimation retrievals from single footprint thermal infrared observations from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). These retrievals are primarily sensitive to atmospheric methane in the mid-troposphere through the lower stratosphere (~2 to ~17 km). We compare to in situ observations made from aircraft during the Hiaper Pole to Pole Observations (HIPPO), the NASA Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom) campaigns, and from the NOAA ESRL aircraft network, between the surface and 5–13 km, across a range of years, latitudes between 60 S to 80 N, and over land and ocean. After a global, pressure dependent bias correction, we find that the land and ocean have similar biases and that the reported observation error (combined measurement and interference errors) of ~27 ppb is consistent with the standard deviation between aircraft and individual AIRS observations. A single measurement has measurement (noise related) uncertainty of ~17 ppb, a ~20 ppb uncertainty from radiative interferences (e.g. from water, temperature, etc.), and ~ 30 ppb due to smoothing error, which is partially removed when making comparisons to in situ measurements or models in a way that account for this regularization. We estimate a 16 ppb validation error because the aircraft typically did not measure methane at altitudes where the AIRS measurements have some sensitivity, e.g. the stratosphere. Daily averaged AIRS measurements of at least 9 observations over spatio-temporal domains of

We use 2010–2015 observations of atmospheric methane columns from the GOSAT satellite instrument in a global inverse analysis to improve estimates of methane emissions and their trends over the period, as well as the global concentration of tropospheric OH (the hydroxyl radical, methane's main sink) and its trend. Our inversion solves the Bayesian optimization problem analytically including closed-form characterization of errors. This allows us to (1) quantify the information content from the inversion towards optimizing methane emissions and its trends, (2) diagnose error correlations between constraints on emissions and OH concentrations, and (3) generate a large ensemble of solutions testing different assumptions in the inversion. We show how the analytical approach can be used even when prior error standard deviation distributions are log-normal. Inversion results show large overestimates of Chinese coal emissions and Middle East oil/gas emissions in the EDGAR v4.3.2 inventory, but little error in the US where we use a new gridded version of the EPA national greenhouse gas inventory as prior estimate. Oil/gas emissions in the EDGAR v4.3.2 inventory show large differences with national totals reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and our inversion is generally more consistent with the UNFCCC data. The observed 2010–2015 growth in atmospheric methane is attributed mostly to an increase in emissions from India, China, and areas with large tropical wetlands. The contribution from OH trends is small in comparison. We find that the inversion provides strong independent constraints on global methane emissions (546 Tg a−1) and global mean OH concentrations (atmospheric methane lifetime against oxidation by tropospheric OH of 10.8 ± 0.4 years), indicating that satellite observations of atmospheric methane could provide a proxy for OH concentrations in the future.

Long-term measurements from satellites and surface stations have demonstrated a decreasing trend of tropospheric carbon monoxide (CO) in the Northern Hemisphere over the past decade. Likely explanations for this decrease include changes in anthropogenic, fires, and/or biogenic emissions or changes in the primary chemical sink hydroxyl radical (OH). Using remotely sensed CO measurements from the Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) satellite instrument, in-situ methyl chloroform (MCF) measurements from World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases (WDCGG), and the adjoint of the GEOS-Chem model, we estimate the change in global CO emissions from 2001–2015. We show that the loss rate of MCF varies by 0.2 % in the past 15 years, indicating that changes in global OH distributions do not explain the recent decrease in CO. Our two-step inversion approach for estimating CO emissions is intended to mitigate the effect of bias errors in the MOPITT data as well as model errors in transport and chemistry, which are the primary uncertainties when quantifying CO emissions using these remotely sensed data. Our results confirm that the decreasing trend of tropospheric CO in the Northern Hemisphere is due to decreasing CO emissions from anthropogenic and biomass burning sources. In particular, we find decreasing CO emissions from the United States and China in the past 15 years, unchanged anthropogenic CO emissions from Europe since 2008, and likely a positive trend from India and southeast Asia, in contrast to recently reported results. We find decreasing trends of biomass burning CO emissions from boreal North America, boreal Asia and South America, but little change over Africa. The inconsistency between our analysis with recent study suggests more efforts are needed for robust conclusion about the variation of anthropogenic CO emissions for India and Southeast Asia.

The Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) instrument is the only satellite-borne sensor in operation that uses both thermal (TIR) and near infrared (NIR) channels to estimate CO profiles. With more than fifteen years (2000 to present) of validated multi-spectral observations, this air quality and climate record provides the unique capability to separate CO in the Lower Most Troposphere (LMT, surface to 3 km (~ 700 hPa)) from the free tropospheric abundance. To extend this record, a new, hyper-spectral approach is presented here that will provide CO data products exceeding the capabilities of MOPITT instrument by combining the short wavelength infrared (SWIR, equivalent to the MOPITT NIR) channels from The TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) aboard the European Sentinel 5 Precursor (S5p) satellite, and the TIR channels from the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) aboard Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (Suomi NPP) satellite. We apply the MUlti- SpEctra, MUlti-SpEcies, MUlti-SEnsors (MUSES) retrieval algorithm, to quantify the potential of this joint CO product. CO profiles are retrieved from a single-footprint, full spectral resolution CrIS transect over Africa on August 27–28, 2013 coincident with significant biomass burning. Comparisons of collocated CrIS and MOPITT CO observations for the LMT show a mean difference of 2.8 ± 24.9 ppb, which is well within the estimated measurement uncertainty of both sensors. The estimated degrees of freedom (DOFS) for CO signals from synergistic CrIS/TROPOMI retrievals are 0.9 in the LMT and 1.3 above LMT, which indicates that the LMT CO can be distinguished near surface CO abundance information from the free troposphere, similar to MOPITT multiple spectral observations (0.8 in the LMT, and 1.1 above LMT). In addition to increased sensitivity, the combined retrievals reduce measurement uncertainty with ~ 15 % error reduction in LMT. With a daily global coverage and a combined spatial footprint of 14 km, the joint CrIS/TROPOMI measurements have the potential to extend and improve upon the MOPITT multi-spectral CO data records for the coming decade.