1. Prediction of lung cancer risk at follow-up screening with low-dose CT: a training and validation study of a deep learning method
- Author
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Peng Huang, PhD, Cheng T Lin, MD, Yuliang Li, MS, Martin C Tammemagi, ProfPhD, Malcolm V Brock, ProfMD, Sukhinder Atkar-Khattra, BSc, Yanxun Xu, PhD, Ping Hu, ScD, John R Mayo, ProfMD, Heidi Schmidt, ProfMD, Michel Gingras, MD, Sergio Pasian, MD, Lori Stewart, MD, Scott Tsai, MD, Jean M Seely, MD, Daria Manos, MD, Paul Burrowes, MD, Rick Bhatia, MD, Ming-Sound Tsao, ProfMD, and Stephen Lam, ProfMD
- Subjects
Computer applications to medicine. Medical informatics ,R858-859.7 - Abstract
Summary: Background: Current lung cancer screening guidelines use either mean diameter, volume, or density of the largest lung nodule on the previous CT scan or appearance of a new nodule to ascertain the timing of the next CT scan. We aimed to develop an accurate screening protocol by estimating the 3-year lung cancer risk after two screening CT scans using deep learning of radiologists' CT readings and other universally available clinical information. Methods: A deep learning algorithm (referred to as DeepLR) was developed using data from participants who had received at least two CT screening scans up to 2 years apart in the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST; training cohort). Double-blinded validation was done using data from participants in the Pan-Canadian Early Detection of Lung Cancer (PanCan) study (validation cohort). The primary analysis was to compare accuracy of DeepLR scores to predict lung cancer incidence at 1 year, 2 years, and 3 years with the Lung CT Screening Reporting & Data System (Lung-RADS) and volume doubling time, using time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) analysis. Findings: The training cohort consisted of 25 097 participants from NLST and the validation cohort comprised 2294 individuals from PanCan. In the validation cohort, DeepLR showed good discrimination, with 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year time-dependent AUC values for cancer diagnosis of 0·968 (SD 0·013), 0·946 (0·013), and 0·899 (0·017), respectively. Among individuals deemed high risk by DeepLR, 94%, 85%, and 71% of incident and interval lung cancers diagnosed within 1 year, 2 years, and 3 years, respectively, after the second screening CT scan were identified. Furthermore, individuals with high DeepLR scores had a significantly higher risk of mortality (hazard ratio 16·07, 95% CI 10·15–25·44; p
- Published
- 2019
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