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BackgroundSyndromic surveillance systems are an essential component of public health surveillance and can provide timely detection of infectious disease cases and outbreaks. Whilst surveillance systems are generally embedded within healthcare, there is increasing interest in novel data sources for monitoring trends in illness, such as over-the-counter purchases, internet-based health searches and worker absenteeism. This systematic review considers the utility of school attendance registers in the surveillance of infectious disease outbreaks and occurrences amongst children.MethodsWe searched eight databases using key words related to school absence, infectious disease and syndromic surveillance. Studies were limited to those published after 1st January 1995. Studies based in nursery schools or higher education settings were excluded. Article screening was undertaken by two independent reviewers using agreed eligibility criteria. Data extraction was performed using a standardised data extraction form. Outcomes included estimates of absenteeism, correlation with existing surveillance systems and associated lead or lag times.ResultsFifteen studies met the inclusion criteria, all of which were concerned with the surveillance of influenza. The specificity of absence data varied between all-cause absence, illness absence and syndrome-specific absence. Systems differed in terms of the frequency of data submissions from schools and the level of aggregation of the data. Baseline rates of illness absence varied between 2.3–3.7%, with peak absences ranging between 4.1–9.8%. Syndrome-specific absenteeism had the strongest correlation with other surveillance systems (r = 0.92), with illness absenteeism generating mixed results and all-cause absenteeism performing the least well. A similar pattern of results emerged in terms of lead and lag times, with influenza-like illness (ILI)-specific absence providing a 1–2 week lead time, compared to lag times reported for all-cause absence data and inconsistent results for illness absence data.ConclusionSyndrome-specific school absences have potential utility in the syndromic surveillance of influenza, demonstrating good correlation with healthcare surveillance data and a lead time of 1–2 weeks ahead of existing surveillance measures. Further research should consider the utility of school attendance registers for conditions other than influenza, to broaden our understanding of the potential application of this data for infectious disease surveillance in children.Systematic review registrationPROSPERO 2019 CRD42019119737.

Background Norovirus is associated with approximately 18% of the global burden of gastroenteritis and affects all age groups. There is currently no licensed vaccine or available antiviral treatment. However, well-designed early warning systems and forecasting can guide nonpharmaceutical approaches to norovirus infection prevention and control. Objective This study evaluates the predictive power of existing syndromic surveillance data and emerging data sources, such as internet searches and Wikipedia page views, to predict norovirus activity across a range of age groups across England. Methods We used existing syndromic surveillance and emerging syndromic data to predict laboratory data indicating norovirus activity. Two methods are used to evaluate the predictive potential of syndromic variables. First, the Granger causality framework was used to assess whether individual variables precede changes in norovirus laboratory reports in a given region or an age group. Then, we used random forest modeling to estimate the importance of each variable in the context of others with two methods: (1) change in the mean square error and (2) node purity. Finally, these results were combined into a visualization indicating the most influential predictors for norovirus laboratory reports in a specific age group and region. Results Our results suggest that syndromic surveillance data include valuable predictors for norovirus laboratory reports in England. However, Wikipedia page views are less likely to provide prediction improvements on top of Google Trends and Existing Syndromic Data. Predictors displayed varying relevance across age groups and regions. For example, the random forest modeling based on selected existing and emerging syndromic variables explained 60% variance in the ≥65 years age group, 42% in the East of England, but only 13% in the South West region. Emerging data sets highlighted relative search volumes, including “flu symptoms,” “norovirus in pregnancy,” and norovirus activity in specific years, such as “norovirus 2016.” Symptoms of vomiting and gastroenteritis in multiple age groups were identified as important predictors within existing data sources. Conclusions Existing and emerging data sources can help predict norovirus activity in England in some age groups and geographic regions, particularly, predictors concerning vomiting, gastroenteritis, and norovirus in the vulnerable populations and historical terms such as stomach flu. However, syndromic predictors were less relevant in some age groups and regions likely due to contrasting public health practices between regions and health information–seeking behavior between age groups. Additionally, predictors relevant to one norovirus season may not contribute to other seasons. Data biases, such as low spatial granularity in Google Trends and especially in Wikipedia data, also play a role in the results. Moreover, internet searches can provide insight into mental models, that is, an individual’s conceptual understanding of norovirus infection and transmission, which could be used in public health communication strategies.

BACKGROUND Norovirus is associated with approximately 18% of the global burden of gastroenteritis and affects all age groups. There is currently no licensed vaccine or available antiviral treatment. However, well-designed early warning systems and forecasting can guide nonpharmaceutical approaches to norovirus infection prevention and control. OBJECTIVE This study evaluates the predictive power of existing syndromic surveillance data and emerging data sources, such as internet searches and Wikipedia page views, to predict norovirus activity across a range of age groups across England. METHODS We used existing syndromic surveillance and emerging syndromic data to predict laboratory data indicating norovirus activity. Two methods are used to evaluate the predictive potential of syndromic variables. First, the Granger causality framework was used to assess whether individual variables precede changes in norovirus laboratory reports in a given region or an age group. Then, we used random forest modeling to estimate the importance of each variable in the context of others with two methods: (1) change in the mean square error and (2) node purity. Finally, these results were combined into a visualization indicating the most influential predictors for norovirus laboratory reports in a specific age group and region. RESULTS Our results suggest that syndromic surveillance data include valuable predictors for norovirus laboratory reports in England. However, Wikipedia page views are less likely to provide prediction improvements on top of Google Trends and Existing Syndromic Data. Predictors displayed varying relevance across age groups and regions. For example, the random forest modeling based on selected existing and emerging syndromic variables explained 60% variance in the ≥65 years age group, 42% in the East of England, but only 13% in the South West region. Emerging data sets highlighted relative search volumes, including “flu symptoms,” “norovirus in pregnancy,” and norovirus activity in specific years, such as “norovirus 2016.” Symptoms of vomiting and gastroenteritis in multiple age groups were identified as important predictors within existing data sources. CONCLUSIONS Existing and emerging data sources can help predict norovirus activity in England in some age groups and geographic regions, particularly, predictors concerning vomiting, gastroenteritis, and norovirus in the vulnerable populations and historical terms such as stomach flu. However, syndromic predictors were less relevant in some age groups and regions likely due to contrasting public health practices between regions and health information–seeking behavior between age groups. Additionally, predictors relevant to one norovirus season may not contribute to other seasons. Data biases, such as low spatial granularity in Google Trends and especially in Wikipedia data, also play a role in the results. Moreover, internet searches can provide insight into mental models, that is, an individual’s conceptual understanding of norovirus infection and transmission, which could be used in public health communication strategies.

Vitrinite reflectance analysis and the mean diameter of metamorphosed quartz, suggest that the eastern Ouachita region, Arkansas, USA reached the lower greenschist facies, regardless of burial depth. An increase in “crystallinity” may explain that the maturation is from the exhumation of the rocks from a greater depth. Shale and sandstone samples collected from outcrops along the crest of the Benton Uplift exhibit illite and chlorite crystallinities that yield higher indices compared to younger rocks adjacent to this crustal-scale anticlinal structure. Illite crystallinity d(001) of air-dried, fine (

Symptom profiles have previously been identified for infectious intestinal disease (IID) which distinguish bacterial from viral organisms. However, there is evidence that the seasonality, severity, and duration of IID may differ between children, adults and elderly. A secondary data analysis was undertaken to explore whether symptom profiles for bacterial and viral IID vary across different age groups. Data from 844 cases of IID were divided into three age categories: 65 years. Multivariable logistic regression modelling was used to compare the significance of different symptoms across the three age groups. The odds of bacterial IID in children were increased by onset in the summer, diarrhoea in the absence of vomiting and fever. These symptoms were also associated with lower odds of a viral pathogen. In adults, diarrhoea but no vomiting, bloody diarrhoea and diarrhoea lasting more than 3 days were associated with increased odds of a bacterial organism, whilst onset in the winter or spring and a loss of appetite were associated with viral IID. In the elderly, diarrhoea in the absence of vomiting and diarrhoea lasting more than 3 days were associated with higher odds of bacterial IID and lower odds of a viral cause. Only diarrhoea in the absence of vomiting emerged as a key symptom across all three age groups. Variation in symptom profiles by age has implications for clinicians, public health specialists and epidemiologists who use symptoms to guide presumptive diagnoses in the absence of microbiological confirmation.

Background Norovirus has a higher level of under-reporting in England compared to other intestinal infectious agents such as Campylobacter or Salmonella, despite being recognised as the most common cause of gastroenteritis globally. In England, this under-reporting is a consequence of the frequently mild/self-limiting nature of the disease, combined with the passive surveillance system for infectious diseases reporting. We investigated heterogeneity in passive surveillance system in order to improve understanding of differences in reporting and laboratory testing practices of norovirus in England. Methods The reporting patterns of norovirus relating to age and geographical region of England were investigated using a multivariate negative binomial model. Multiple model formulations were compared, and the best performing model was determined by proper scoring rules based on one-week-ahead predictions. The reporting patterns are represented by epidemic and endemic random intercepts; values close to one and less than one imply a lower number of reports than expected in the given region and age-group. Results The best performing model highlighted atypically large and small amounts of reporting by comparison with the average in England. Endemic random intercept varied from the lowest in East Midlands in those in the under 5 year age-group (0.36, CI 0.18–0.72) to the highest in the same age group in South West (3.00, CI 1.68–5.35) and Yorkshire & the Humber (2.93, CI 1.74–4.94). Reporting by age groups showed the highest variability in young children. Conclusion We identified substantial variability in reporting patterns of norovirus by age and by region of England. Our findings highlight the importance of considering uncertainty in the design of forecasting tools for norovirus, and to inform the development of more targeted risk management approaches for norovirus disease.

BACKGROUND Infectious intestinal disease (IID) is common, and children are more likely than adults both to have IID and to transmit infection onto others. Before the introduction of the vaccine, rotavirus was the leading cause of severe childhood diarrhea, with norovirus and Campylobacter predominate pathogens. Public health surveillance of IID is primarily based on health care data, and as such, illness that is managed within the community will often go undetected. School attendance registers offer a novel data set that has the potential to identify community cases and outbreaks of IID that would otherwise be missed by current health surveillance systems. Although studies have explored the role of school attendance registers in the monitoring of influenza among children, no studies have been identified that consider this approach in the surveillance of IID. OBJECTIVE The aim of this study is to explore the role and utility of school attendance registers in the detection and surveillance of IID in children. The secondary aims are to estimate the burden of IID on school absenteeism and to assess the impact of the rotavirus vaccine on illness absence among school-aged children. METHODS This study is a retrospective analysis of school attendance registers to investigate whether school absences due to illness can be used to capture seasonal trends and outbreaks of infectious intestinal disease among school-aged children. School absences in Merseyside, United Kingdom will be compared and combined with routine health surveillance data from primary care, laboratories, and telehealth services. These data will be used to model spatial and temporal variations in the incidence of IID and to apportion likely causes to changes in school absenteeism trends. This will be used to assess the potential utility of school attendance data in the surveillance of IID and to estimate the burden of IID absenteeism in schools. It will also inform an analysis of the impact of the rotavirus vaccine on disease within this age group. RESULTS This study has received ethical approval from the University of Liverpool Research Ethics Committee (reference number 1819). Use of general practice data has been approved for the evaluation of rotavirus vaccination in Merseyside by NHS Research Ethics Committee, South Central-Berkshire REC Reference 14/SC/1140. CONCLUSIONS This study is unique in considering whether school attendance registers could be used to enhance the surveillance of IID. Such data have multiple potential applications and could improve the identification of outbreaks within schools, allowing early intervention to reduce transmission both within and outside of school settings. These data have the potential to act as an early warning system, identifying infections circulating within the community before they enter health care settings. School attendance data could also inform the evaluation of vaccination programs, such as rotavirus and, in time, norovirus. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT DERR1-10.2196/30078

ObjectivesReporting of COVID-19 cases, deaths and testing has often lacked context for appropriate assessment of disease burden within risk groups. The research considers how routine surveillance data might provide initial insights and identify risk factors, setting COVID-19 deaths early in the pandemic into context. This will facilitate the understanding of wider consequences of a pandemic from the earliest stage, reducing fear, aiding in accurately assessing disease burden and ensuring appropriate disease mitigation.SettingUK, 2020.ParticipantsThe study is a secondary analysis of routine, public domain, surveillance data and information from Office for National Statistics (ONS), National Health Service (NHS) 111 and Public Health England (PHE) on deaths and disease.Primary and secondary outcome measuresOur principal focus is ONS data on deaths mentioning COVID-19 on the death certificate. We also consider information provided in NHS 111 and PHE data summaries.ResultsDeaths with COVID-19 significantly contributed to, yet do not entirely explain, abnormally elevated all-cause mortality in the UK from weeks 12–18 of 2020. Early in the UK epidemic, COVID-19 was the greatest threat to those with underlying illness, rarely endangering people aged under 40 years. COVID-19-related death rates differed by region, possibly reflecting underlying population structure. Risk of COVID-19-related death was greater for healthcare and social care staff and black, Asian and minority ethnic individuals, having allowed for documented risk factors.ConclusionEarly contextualisation of public health data is critical to recognising who gets sick, when and why. Understanding at-risk groups facilitates a targeted response considering indirect consequences of society’s reaction to a pandemic alongside disease-related impacts. COVID-19-related deaths mainly mirror historical patterns, and excess non-COVID-19-related deaths partly reflect reduced access to and uptake of healthcare during lockdown. Future outbreak response will improve through better understanding of connectivity between disease monitoring systems to aid interpretation of disease risk patterns, facilitating nuanced mitigation measures.

Background The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted surveillance activities for multiple pathogens. Since March 2020, there was a decline in the number of reports of norovirus and Campylobacter recorded by England’s national laboratory surveillance system. The aim is to estimate and compare the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on norovirus and Campylobacter surveillance data in England. Methods We utilised two quasi-experimental approaches based on a generalised linear model for sequential count data. The first approach estimates overall impact and the second approach focuses on the impact of specific elements of the pandemic response (COVID-19 diagnostic testing and control measures). The following time series (27, 2015–43, 2020) were used: weekly laboratory-confirmed norovirus and Campylobacter reports, air temperature, conducted Sars-CoV-2 tests and Index of COVID-19 control measures stringency. Results The period of Sars-CoV-2 emergence and subsequent sustained transmission was associated with persistent reductions in norovirus laboratory reports (p = 0.001), whereas the reductions were more pronounced during pandemic emergence and later recovered for Campylobacter (p = 0.075). The total estimated reduction was 47% - 79% for norovirus (12–43, 2020). The total reduction varied by time for Campylobacter, e.g. 19% - 33% in April, 1% - 7% in August. Conclusion Laboratory reporting of norovirus was more adversely impacted than Campylobacter by the COVID-19 pandemic. This may be partially explained by a comparatively stronger effect of behavioural interventions on norovirus transmission and a relatively greater reduction in norovirus testing capacity. Our study underlines the differential impact a pandemic may have on surveillance of gastrointestinal infectious diseases.

Children are important transmitters of infection. Within schools they encounter large numbers of contacts and infections can spread easily causing outbreaks. However, not all schools are affected equally. We conducted a retrospective analysis of school outbreaks to identify factors associated with the risk of gastroenteritis, influenza, rash or other outbreaks. Data on reported school outbreaks in England were obtained from Public Health England and linked with data from the Department for Education and the Office for Standards in Education, Children's Services and Skills (Ofsted). Primary and all-through schools were found to be at increased risk of outbreaks, compared with secondary schools (odds ratio (OR) 5.82, 95% confidence interval (CI) 4.50–7.58 and OR 4.66, 95% CI 3.27–6.61, respectively). School size was also significantly associated with the risk of outbreaks, with higher odds associated with larger schools. Attack rates were higher in gastroenteritis and influenza outbreaks, with lower attack rates associated with rashes (relative risk 0.17, 95% CI 0.15–0.20). Deprivation and Ofsted rating were not associated with either outbreak occurrence or the subsequent attack rate. This study identifies primary and all-through schools as key settings for health protection interventions. Public health teams need to work closely with these schools to encourage early identification and reporting of outbreaks.

Background Infectious intestinal disease (IID) is common, and children are more likely than adults both to have IID and to transmit infection onto others. Before the introduction of the vaccine, rotavirus was the leading cause of severe childhood diarrhea, with norovirus and Campylobacter predominate pathogens. Public health surveillance of IID is primarily based on health care data, and as such, illness that is managed within the community will often go undetected. School attendance registers offer a novel data set that has the potential to identify community cases and outbreaks of IID that would otherwise be missed by current health surveillance systems. Although studies have explored the role of school attendance registers in the monitoring of influenza among children, no studies have been identified that consider this approach in the surveillance of IID. Objective The aim of this study is to explore the role and utility of school attendance registers in the detection and surveillance of IID in children. The secondary aims are to estimate the burden of IID on school absenteeism and to assess the impact of the rotavirus vaccine on illness absence among school-aged children. Methods This study is a retrospective analysis of school attendance registers to investigate whether school absences due to illness can be used to capture seasonal trends and outbreaks of infectious intestinal disease among school-aged children. School absences in Merseyside, United Kingdom will be compared and combined with routine health surveillance data from primary care, laboratories, and telehealth services. These data will be used to model spatial and temporal variations in the incidence of IID and to apportion likely causes to changes in school absenteeism trends. This will be used to assess the potential utility of school attendance data in the surveillance of IID and to estimate the burden of IID absenteeism in schools. It will also inform an analysis of the impact of the rotavirus vaccine on disease within this age group. Results This study has received ethical approval from the University of Liverpool Research Ethics Committee (reference number 1819). Use of general practice data has been approved for the evaluation of rotavirus vaccination in Merseyside by NHS Research Ethics Committee, South Central-Berkshire REC Reference 14/SC/1140. Conclusions This study is unique in considering whether school attendance registers could be used to enhance the surveillance of IID. Such data have multiple potential applications and could improve the identification of outbreaks within schools, allowing early intervention to reduce transmission both within and outside of school settings. These data have the potential to act as an early warning system, identifying infections circulating within the community before they enter health care settings. School attendance data could also inform the evaluation of vaccination programs, such as rotavirus and, in time, norovirus. International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID) DERR1-10.2196/30078

Norovirus is the leading cause of community-acquired and nosocomial acute gastroenteritis. Routine testing for norovirus is seldom undertaken, and diagnosis is mainly based on presenting symptoms. This makes understanding the burden of medically attended norovirus-attributable gastroenteritis (MA-NGE) and targeting care and prevention strategies challenging.We used linked population-based healthcare datasets (Clinical Practice Research Datalink General Practice OnLine Database linked with Hospital Episode Statistics Admitted Patient Care) to model the incidence of MA-NGE associated with primary care consultations or hospitalizations according to age groups in England in the period July 2007-June 2013.Mean annual incidence rates of MA-NGE were 4.9/1000 person-years and 0.7/1000 person-years for episodes involving primary care or hospitalizations, respectively. Incidence rates were highest in children aged5 years: 34.0 consultations/1000 person-years and 3.3 hospitalizations/1000 person-years. Medically attended norovirus-attributable gastroenteritis hospitalization rates were second highest in adults aged65 years (1.7/1000 person-years).In this particular study, the burden of MA-NGE estimated from healthcare datasets was higher than previously estimated in small cohort studies in England. Routinely collected primary care and hospitalization datasets are useful resources to estimate and monitor the burden of MA-NGE in a population over time.

We review the risk of norovirus (NoV) infection to the human population from consumption of contaminated shellfish. From a UK perspective, risk is apportioned for different vectors of NoV infection within the population. NoV spreads mainly by person-to-person contact or via unsanitary food handling. NoV also enters the coastal zone via wastewater discharges resulting in contamination of shellfish waters. Typically, NoV persists in the marine environment for several days, with its presence strongly linked to human population density, wastewater discharge rate, and efficacy of wastewater treatment. Shellfish bioaccumulate NoV and current post-harvest depuration is inefficient in its removal. While NoV can be inactivated by cooking (e.g. mussels), consumption of contaminated raw shellfish (e.g. oysters) represents a risk to human health. Consumption of contaminated food accounts for 3-11% of NoV cases in the UK (~74,000 cases/year), of which 16% are attributable to oyster consumption (11,800 cases/year). However, environmental and human factors influencing NoV infectivity remain poorly understood. Lack of standard methods for accurate quantification of infective and non-infective (damaged) NoV particles represent a major barrier, hampering identification of an appropriate lower NoV contamination limit for shellfish. Future management strategies may include shellfish quality assessment (at point of harvest or at point of supply) or harvesting controls. However, poor understanding of NoV inactivation in shellfish and the environment currently limits accurate apportionment and risk assessment for NoV and hence the identification of appropriate shellfish or environmental quality standards.

Background Outbreaks of infectious gastroenteritis are common in care homes for the elderly. Norovirus can cause these outbreaks, but diagnosis is frequently based solely on clinical characteristics. Our objective in this study was to describe the epidemiology of norovirus and other gastrointestinal pathogens in these settings. Methods We analysed surveillance data from gastroenteritis outbreaks reported in North East England between 04 July 2016 to 01 July 2018. Stool samples taken during these outbreaks were tested for a range of viral and bacterial pathogens. We described the epidemiology of these outbreaks and explored the characteristics of norovirus outbreaks versus from other viral causes using multivariable logistic regression. Results From the 566 care home gastroenteritis outbreaks in this study, we found that norovirus was the pathogen most frequently isolated. Norovirus was detected in 64% of outbreaks with a pathogen identified. Sapovirus was found in 13%; rotavirus in 11%. We found that norovirus outbreaks were associated with higher attack rates (aOR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01–1.05) and fewer cases sampled (aOR 0.74, 95% CI 0.60–0.91), compared to outbreaks caused by other viral pathogens. Conclusions These results are important as they quantify the contribution of norovirus to gastroenteritis outbreaks in care homes. Given this evidence, we emphasize the importance of non-specific outbreak interventions that can affect the impact of all such outbreaks. We further recommend that these findings are used to inform the implementation strategies of any norovirus-specific interventions such as a norovirus vaccine.

Less than half of stool samples from people symptomatic with infectious intestinal disease (IID) will identify a causative organism. A secondary data analysis was undertaken to explore whether symptomology alone could be used to make inferences about causative organisms. Data were utilised from the Second Study of Infectious Intestinal Disease in the Community. A total of 844 cases were analysed. Few symptoms differentiated individual pathogens, but grouping pathogens together showed that viral IID was more likely when symptom onset was in winter (odds ratio (OR) 2.08, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.16–3.75) or spring (OR 1.92, 95% CI 1.11–3.33), the patient was aged under 5 years (OR 3.63, 95% CI 2.24–6.03) and there was loss of appetite (OR 2.19, 95% CI 1.29–3.72). The odds of bacterial IID were higher with diarrhoea in the absence of vomiting (OR 3.54, 95% CI 2.37–5.32), diarrhoea which persisted for >3 days (OR 2.69, 95% CI 1.82–3.99), bloody diarrhoea (OR 4.17, 95% CI 1.63–11.83) and fever (OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.11–2.53). Symptom profiles could be of value to help guide clinicians and public health professionals in the management of IID, in the absence of microbiological confirmation.

Disability adjusted life years (DALYs) have been used since the 1990s. It is a composite measure of years of life lost with years lived with disability. Essentially, one DALY is the equivalent of a year of healthy life lost if a person had not experienced disease. Norovirus is the most common cause of gastrointestinal diseases worldwide. Norovirus activity varies from one season to the next for reasons not fully explained. Infection with norovirus is generally not severe, and is normally characterized as mild and self-limiting with no long-term sequelae. In this study, we model a range of estimates of DALYs for community cases of norovirus in England and Wales. We estimated a range of DALYs for norovirus to account for mixing of the severity of disease and the range of length of illness experienced by infected people. Our estimates were between 1159 and 4283 DALYs per year, or 0.3–1.2 years of healthy life lost per thousand cases of norovirus. These estimates provide evidence that norovirus leads to a considerable level of ill health in England and Wales. This information will be helpful should candidate norovirus vaccines become available in the future.

SUMMARYIn October 2014, Public Health England (PHE) identified cases of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) serogroup O157 sharing a multiple locus variable-number tandem repeat analysis (MLVA) profile. We conducted a case-control study using multivariable logistic regression to calculate adjusted odds ratios (aOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) testing a range of exposures. Cases were defined as laboratory-confirmed STEC O157 with the implicated MLVA profile, were UK residents aged ⩾18 years with symptom onset between 25 September and 30 October 2014, and had no history of travel abroad within 5 days of symptom onset. One hundred and two cases were identified. Cases were mostly female (65%; median age 49, range 2–92 years). It was the second largest outbreak seen in England, to date, and a case-control study was conducted using market research panel controls and online survey methods. These methods were instrumental in the rapid data collection and analysis necessary to allow traceback investigations for short shelf-life products. This is a new method of control recruitment and this is the first in which it was a standalone recruitment method. The case-control study suggested a strong association between consumption of a ready-to-eat food and disease (aOR 28, 95% CI 5·0–157) from one retailer. No reactive microbiological testing of food items during the outbreak was possible due to the short shelf-life of the product. Collaboration with industrial bodies is needed to ensure timely traceback exercises to identify contamination events and initiate appropriate and focused microbiological testing and implement control measures.

Although incidence remained constant, outbreaks from contaminated meat and milk declined and those from petting farms and schools and nurseries increased., We evaluated clinical Shiga toxin–producing Escherichia coli O157 infections in England and Wales during 1983–2012 to describe changes in microbiological and surveillance methods. A strain replacement event was captured; phage type (PT) 2 decreased to account for just 3% of cases by 2012, whereas PT8 and PT21/28 strains concurrently emerged, constituting almost two thirds of cases by 2012. Despite interventions to control and reduce transmission, incidence remained constant. However, sources of infection changed over time; outbreaks caused by contaminated meat and milk declined, suggesting that interventions aimed at reducing meat cross-contamination were effective. Petting farm and school and nursery outbreaks increased, suggesting the emergence of other modes of transmission and potentially contributing to the sustained incidence over time. Studies assessing interventions and consideration of policies and guidance should be undertaken to reduce Shiga toxin–producing E. coli O157 infections in England and Wales in line with the latest epidemiologic findings.

SUMMARYSyndromic surveillance systems in England have demonstrated utility in the early identification of seasonal gastrointestinal illness (GI) tracking its spatio-temporal distribution and enabling early public health action. There would be additional public health utility if syndromic surveillance systems could detect or track subnational infectious disease outbreaks. To investigate using syndromic surveillance for this purpose we retrospectively identified eight large GI outbreaks between 2009 and 2014 (four randomly and four purposively sampled). We then examined syndromic surveillance information prospectively collected by the Real-time Syndromic Surveillance team within Public Health England for evidence of possible outbreak-related changes. None of the outbreaks were identified contemporaneously and no alerts were made to relevant public health teams. Retrospectively, two of the outbreaks – which happened at similar times and in proximal geographical locations – demonstrated changes in the local trends of relevant syndromic indicators and exhibited a clustering of statistical alarms, but did not warrant alerting local health protection teams. Our suite of syndromic surveillance systems may be more suited to their original purposes than as means of detecting or monitoring localized, subnational GI outbreaks. This should, however, be considered in the context of this study's limitations; further prospective work is needed to fully explore the use of syndromic surveillance for this purpose. Provided geographical coverage is sufficient, syndromic surveillance systems could be able to provide reassurance of no or minor excess healthcare systems usage during localized GI incidents.

Background Norovirus is the commonest cause of infectious intestinal disease (IID) worldwide. In the UK community incidence of norovirus has been estimated at 59/1000 population, equating to four million cases a year. Whilst norovirus infects people of all ages, a substantial burden occurs in infants and young children. The population of viruses found in sporadic cases among infants has been observed to be more diverse than that associated with outbreaks. In this study, we analysed norovirus-positive specimens collected during the second study of infectious intestinal diseases (IID2 Study) a national community cohort study conducted between April 2008 and August 2009 We examined the data for differences in circulating norovirus strains between two arms of a community cohort, and differences between genotypes and disease outcomes such as illness duration and symptom profiles. Methods Analysis was conducted to assess genetic diversity of noroviruses in the community. We also assessed differences in the cycle threshold (Ct) value, as a proxy for viral load, between norovirus genogroups and genotypes, and differences in reported symptoms or length of illness in relation to genogroup and genotype. Results There were 477 samples where norovirus was detected. Whilst 85% of people recovered within two days for vomiting; diarrhoea symptoms were reported to day 4 for 83% of the cases, and 10% of people reported symptoms of diarrhoea lasting between five and six days. Both diarrhoea and vomiting symptoms lasted longer in children aged

Background Following rotavirus vaccine introduction, norovirus has emerged as a significant pathogen associated with acute gastroenteritis among children in some high- and middle-income countries. In a case-control study following rotavirus vaccination in Malawi, we used PCR to test for multiple enteric pathogens in fecal samples from children aged

Norovirus (NoV) is the greatest cause of infectious intestinal disease in the UK. The burden associated with foodborne outbreaks is underestimated in part because data are dispersed across different organisations. Each looks at outbreaks through a different lens. To estimate the burden of NoV from seafood including shellfish we used a capture-recapture technique using datasets from three different organisations currently involved in collecting information on outbreaks. The number of outbreaks of NoV related to seafood including shellfish in England was estimated for the period of 2004–2011. The combined estimates were more than three times as high (N= 360 using Chao's sample coverage approach) as the individual count from organisation three (N= 115), which captured more outbreaks than the other two organisations. The estimates were calculated for both independence and dependence between the datasets. There was evidence of under-reporting of NoV outbreaks and inconsistency of reporting between organisations, which means that, currently, more than one data source needs to be used to estimate as accurately as possible the total number of NoV outbreaks and associated cases. Furthermore, either the integration of reporting mechanisms or simplifying the process of reporting outbreaks to organisations is essential for understanding and, hence, controlling disease burden.

Background Outbreaks of infectious gastroenteritis in care homes are common, with norovirus a frequent cause. In England there is no co-ordinated national surveillance system. We aimed to estimate the burden of these outbreaks. Methods Using a generalised linear mixed effects regression model we described the relationship between the observed number of care home outbreaks and covariates. Estimated model parameters were used to infer uplift in the number of outbreaks expected if all areas were subjected to enhanced surveillance. From this we then estimated the total burden of care home gastroenteritis outbreaks in this period. Results We estimated a total of 14,146 care home gastroenteritis outbreaks in England during 2014–2016; this is 47% higher than the reported total and a rate of 32.4 outbreaks per 100 care homes per year. The median number of outbreaks from the model estimates was 31 (IQR 20–46) compared to 19 (IQR 12–34) reported from routine surveillance. Conclusions This estimated care home gastroenteritis burden in England indicates that current surveillance substantially underestimates the number of outbreaks, by almost half. Improving this surveillance could provide better epidemiological knowledge of the burden of norovirus to inform public health policy, particularly with the advent of norovirus vaccines. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-018-3642-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Withaferin A (WA), a natural product derived from Withania somnifera, has been used in traditional oriental medicines to treat neurological disorders. Recent studies have demonstrated that this compound may have a potential for cancer treatment and a clinical trial has been launched to test WA in treating melanoma. Herein, WA's chemopreventive potential was tested in a chemically-induced skin carcinogenesis mouse model. Pathological examinations revealed that WA significantly suppressed skin tumor formation. Morphological observations of the skin tissues suggest that WA suppressed cell proliferation rather than inducing apoptosis during skin carcinogenesis. Antibody Micro array analysis demonstrated that WA blocked carcinogen-induced up-regulation of acetyl-CoA carboxylase 1 (ACC1), which was further confirmed in a skin cell transformation model. Overexpression of ACC1 promoted whereas knockdown of ACC1 suppressed anchorage-independent growth and oncogene activation of transformable skin cells. Further studies demonstrated that WA inhibited tumor promotor-induced ACC1 gene transcription by suppressing the activation of activator protein 1. In melanoma cells, WA was also able to suppress the expression levels of ACC1. Finally, results using human skin cancer tissues confirmed the up-regulation of ACC1 in tumors than adjacent normal tissues. In summary, our results suggest that withaferin A may have a potential in chemoprevention and ACC1 may serve as a critical target of WA. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Highlights • Norovirus is the commonest cause of GI disease in the UK. • Less stringent diagnostic threshold Increases previous estimate by 26%. • Re-assessed estimate equates to burden of infection at 59 per 1000 person years., The second Infectious Intestinal Diseases study (IID2) estimated the incidence of norovirus in the UK at 47/1000 population (three million cases annually). Clinically significant norovirus was defined using a cycle threshold (ct) value of

Norovirus is the commonest cause of gastrointestinal disease worldwide in. Infections with norovirus occur in all age groups, however, the highest incidence is in children aged less than five years. Surveillance of norovirus is complicated because most people do not contact medical services when they are ill. Nevertheless, Public health laboratory surveillance worldwide has demonstrated the dominance of GII.4 viruses in the population. Better epidemiological surveillance and outbreak investigations, coupled with wider implementation of molecular-based laboratory diagnostics are leading to better estimates of the burden of norovirus infections as well as improved outbreak control. Recent advances in cell culture systems for norovirus and current research investigating the distribution of norovirus-associated disease in the population, for whom the disease burden is greatest, understanding host susceptibility factors, and methodologies for ascertaining cases, are important in increasing our understanding of norovirus. The key to surveillance of norovirus is allying the epidemiology with surveillance of virology. With recent advances in laboratory culture systems for norovirus, next generation sequencing technologies, improved diagnostics and measuring phenotypic characteristics of noroviruses, there are new opportunities to advance understanding of this common and important human pathogen that will help design strategies for vaccine and antiviral development, and how these might be best deployed to control norovirus infection.

IntroductionNoroviruses are the leading cause of acute gastroenteritis in all age groups, but illness is more severe and causes excess mortality in the elderly, particularly those in long-term care. The total burden of norovirus disease in the elderly in the UK is poorly defined; no current surveillance programmes systematically or accurately quantify norovirus infection in those living in care homes. The aim of this study is to evaluate an enhanced surveillance system for acute gastroenteritis among the elderly in care homes.Methods and analysisWe will conduct this prospective cohort study in care homes in North West England; residents and staff at study care homes will be asked to participate. We will prospectively enrol a cohort of participants in an enhanced surveillance system to capture the incidence of acute gastroenteritis and use multiplex PCR to detect pathogens. We will sample symptomatic and non-symptomatic participants to understand characteristics of norovirus disease and susceptibility to infection. We will generate novel data on transmission dynamics by collecting data on the pattern of interactions within care homes using electronic proximity sensors. Comparisons of outbreak and non-outbreak periods will be used to quantify the impact of norovirus outbreaks on care homes.Ethics and disseminationThe study has been approved by the North West–Greater Manchester South NHS Research Ethics Committee (REC Reference: 16/NW/0541). Study outputs will be disseminated through scientific conferences and peer-reviewed publications. This study will provide detailed insight on the burden and aetiology of acute gastroenteritis in care homes, in addition to generating novel data on transmission dynamics and risks. The study will identify areas for improving infection control practice and allow more accurate modelling of the introduction of interventions such as vaccination.

Background Previous studies have found a strong correlation between internet search and public health surveillance data. Less is known about how search data respond to public health interventions, such as vaccination, and the consistency of responses in different countries. In this study, we aimed to study the correlation between internet searches for "rotavirus" and rotavirus disease activity in the United States, United Kingdom, and Mexico before and after introduction of rotavirus vaccine. Methods We compared time series of internet searches for "rotavirus" from Google Trends with rotavirus laboratory reports from the United States and United Kingdom and with hospitalizations for acute gastroenteritis in the United States and Mexico. Using time and location parameters, Google quantifies an internet query share (IQS) to measure the relative search volume for specific terms. We analyzed the correlation between IQS and laboratory and hospitalization data before and after national vaccine introductions. Results There was a strong positive correlation between the rotavirus IQS and laboratory reports in the United States (R2 = 0.79) and United Kingdom (R2 = 0.60) and between the rotavirus IQS and acute gastroenteritis hospitalizations in the United States (R2 = 0.87) and Mexico (R2 = 0.69) (P < .0001 for all correlations). The correlations were stronger in the prevaccine period than in the postvaccine period. After vaccine introduction, the mean rotavirus IQS decreased by 40% (95% confidence interval [CI], 25%-55%) in the United States and by 70% (95% CI, 55%-86%) in Mexico. In the United Kingdom, there was a loss of seasonal variation after vaccine introduction. Conclusions Rotavirus internet search data trends mirrored national rotavirus laboratory trends in the United States and United Kingdom and gastroenteritis-hospitalization data in the United States and Mexico; lower correlations were found after rotavirus vaccine introduction.

ObjectivesTo estimate the incidence of gastroenteritis in individuals in care homes.DesignProspective cohort study.SettingFive participating care homes in North West England, UK.ParticipantsResidents and staff present at the five study care homes between 15 August 2017 and 30 May 2019 (n=268).Outcome measuresWe calculated incidence rates for all gastroenteritis cases per 1000 person-years at risk and per 1000 bed-days at risk. We also calculated the incidence rate of gastroenteritis outbreaks per 100 care homes per year.ResultsIn total 45 cases were reported during the surveillance period, equating to 133.7 cases per 1000 person-years at risk. In residents the incidence rate was 0.62 cases per 1000 bed-days. We observed seven outbreaks in all care homes included in surveillance, a rate of 76.4 outbreaks per 100 care homes per year. 15 stool samples were tested; three were positive for norovirus, no other pathogens were detected.ConclusionsWe found that surveillance of infectious gastroenteritis disease in care homes based on outbreaks, the current general approach, detected a majority of cases of gastroenteritis. However, if policymakers are to estimate the burden of infectious gastroenteritis in this setting using only routine outbreak surveillance data and not accounting for non-outbreak cases, this study implies that the total burden will be underestimated.