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It is well documented that MGAT5 (Glycosyltransferase V) products are over expressed in carcinomas and likely accelerate metastasis by promoting neoangiogenesis. We now report a similar over expression in primary osteoblastic osteogenic sarcoma and demonstrate new intratumoural blood vessels. Expansion of the tumours is by osteoclastic resorption of both trabecular and cortical bone with the latter by cutting channels similar to physiological cutting cones. Osteoclasts, adjacent capillaries, and related mast cells also overexpress MGAT5 products and we speculate that this facilitates neoangiogenesis.

We have studied the impact of primary central conventional chondrosarcoma on the bone tissues (trabecular, endosteal and cortical) of the proximal femur. A combination of macroscopy, contact radiography, histology, lectin histochemistry and immunohistochemistry techniques were employed. The tumours expanded by driving the resorption of bone tissue progressively removing trabecular, endosteal and cortical bone ultimately causing pathological fracture of the latter. Resorption of all tissue types was by osteoclasts invariably accompanied by companion mesenchymal tissue containing capillaries, mononuclear cells and mast cells. There were no new pathological mechanisms in play, rather the usurpation of normal physiological mechanisms of bone tissue remodelling and modelling. Lectin histochemistry showed that osteoclasts, endothelial cells and mast cells expressed GnTase V (MGAT5) which has been implicated in neoangiogenesis. The linkage of osteoclasts and new blood vessels we believe is key to successful bone resorption.

Chondro/osteoclasts and mast cells are cells of interest in the cartilage and bone destruction of joints affected by rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Both are major cellular components of the vascular synovial pannus proliferation characteristic of this disease. Chondroclasts degrade calcified cartilage and osteoclasts degrade bone tissue. Chondroclasts and osteoclasts are identical cell types and differentiate from monocyte precursors. Our studies show a close microanatomical relationship between these cells and new capillary formation (shown by the lectinPsophocarpus tetragonolobus– PTL-11) in the resorption sites of the mineralized tissues. Clast and mast cells express receptors for the lectin lPHA indicating beta1,6-acetylglucosaminal transferase V (GNTase V/MGAT5) activity providing a mechanism for neoangiogenesis. In addition to an angiogenetic function for mast cells it is probable that their products control monocyte differentiation and chondro/osteoclastogenesis.

Lectin staining of benign and malignant cartilage proliferations indicates restricted glycoprofiles and significant differences. In general terms benign lesions show less cellular binding and more matrical binding than malignant lesions. This suggests that in the benign category cells are less metabolically active and the matrix more structurally stable. Chondrosarcoma cells stain with the lectin lPHA indicating increased β1-6 branching linkages in complex N-linked glycans which is also a known feature of carcinoma cells. Increased angiogenesis and increased mast cell numbers are present in the connective tissue septa separating lobules of chondrosarcoma. The blood vessels stain with the lectins PTL-II and lPHA. Mast cells stain with lPHA.β 1-6 linkage is initiated by the Golgi-bound glycosyltransferase GnTase V. Increased β1-6 linkages are believed to enhance the metastatic potential of a malignant cell by angiogenesis. LPHA ligand is present not only in chondrosarcoma cells but also in endothelial cells and mast cells of the septa.The ligand for the lectin PTL-II is a core 1 O-linked glycans produced under the auspices of the galactosyltransferase T synthase. Production of this glycans by endothelial cells is believed to be obligatory for the formation of these cells into tubes as part of the construction of functioning blood vessels.There are, therefore, two candidate genes in chondrosarcoma worthy of further study viz those for GnTase V and T synthase. Targeted disruption of the activities of these genes has therapeutic possibilities.

Both climate scientists and non-scientists (laypeople) attribute extreme weather events to various influences. Laypeople’s attributions for these events are important as these attributions likely influence their views and actions about climate change and extreme events. Research has examined laypeople’s attribution scepticism about climate change in general; however, few climate scientists are familiar with the processes underpinning laypeople’s attributions for individual extreme events. Understanding these lay attributions is important for scientists to communicate their findings to the public. Following a brief summary of the way climate scientists calculate attributions for extreme weather events, we focus on cognitive and motivational processes that underlie laypeople’s attributions for specific events. These include a tendency to prefer single-cause rather than multiple-cause explanations, a discounting of whether possible causes covary with extreme events, a preference for sufficient causes over probabilities, applying prevailing causal narratives, and the influence of motivational factors. For climate scientists and communicators who wish to inform the public about the role of climate change in extreme weather events, these patterns suggest several strategies to explain scientists’ attributions for these events and enhance public engagement with climate change. These strategies include showing more explicitly that extreme weather events reflect multiple causal influences, that climate change is a mechanism that covaries with these events and increases the probability and intensity of many of these events, that human emissions contributing to climate change are controllable, and that misleading communications about weather attributions reflect motivated interests rather than good evidence.

The complexity and scale of problems being tackled by ergonomists is growing. Work and societal systems are becoming increasingly reliant on technology, and the technologies themselves are becoming...

Mast cells and angiogenesis play roles in the synovium of both osteoarthritis and rheumatoid disease but precise mechanisms are unclear. In a study of the glycome of human synovial biopsies from normal, osteoarthritic and rheumatoid disease cases mast cell numbers were increased in both osteoarthritic and rheumatoid disease synovial samples (the latter more than the former). Both mast cells and endothelial cells expressed receptors for the lectinPhaseolus vulgarisleukagglutinin (lPHA). Endothelial cells only expressed receptors forPsophocarpus tetragonolobus(PTL-II). Mast cells and angiogenesis are, therefore, likely to have a common pathogenetic mechanism in osteoarthritis and rheumatoid synovitis, the difference being one of degree. lPHA receptor expression in both mast cells and endothelial cells indicates βl,6N–acetylglucosaminyl (GlcNAc) – transferase V (GnTaseV/MGAT5) activity. This provides a linkage between mast cells and endothelial cell proliferation. Endothelial cells show core 1 O-glycosylation (positive PTL-II staining) which is probably necessary for the formation of competent tubular structures and for continuing vascular integrity.

Perceptual discrimination requires the ability to determine that two stimuli are different. It is well established that neuronal representations in sensory cortices (i.e. the specific neuronal activity patterns evoked by the stimuli) are essential for perceptual choice 1–4. Yet, the general principles by which those representations are compared in sensory systems remain paradoxically elusive. Indeed, the resolution of the neuronal representations is an order of magnitude more precise than the discrimination capabilities of the animals during behavioral tasks 5–9. This large discrepancy between theoretical neural resolution and actual animal discrimination threshold suggests that the integrative mechanisms leading to perceptual decision are computationally limited. To determine those computational constraints, we recorded the activity of layer 2/3 neurons in the primary visual cortex (V1) of mice performing a Go/NoGo orientation discrimination task. We found that two oriented cues were perfectly perceived as distinct when there was no overlap between their neuronal representations. However, at the limit of discriminability, V1 activity stopped encoding for the orientation of the visual stimulus. Instead, we observed a funneling of the V1 activity toward distinct domains of the orientation representation space, likely generated by an orientation-dependent modulation of the neuronal excitability. The relative neuronal activity at those domains provided a probabilistic indication that the stimulus belonged to the Go or NoGo category. Thus, the categorical classification by V1 of the presented stimulus predicts accurately the probabilities of the animals’ perceptual decisions.

Comparatively little is known about the glycome (the set of glycans and glycoconjugates made by the cell, tissue or organism) of bone and cartilage. The glycome has a high-density coding capacity and is important in post-translational modification. Lectin histochemistry provides insights into the glycome and we applied this technique to an ectopic ossification site in human bronchial cartilages.Our results show that cartilage matrix at the site of erosion by chondroclasts has a limited but definite glycoprofile. In contrast, bone matrix does not express many lectin ligands. Chondroclasts have an extensive glycoprofile similar to that of, but not identical to, osteoclasts. N and O glycans are both expressed in the zone of presumptive mineralization and are relevant to that process. Bone trabecular lining cells communicate with osteocytes via intracanalicular processes and some lectin ligands were expressed by these three components.Mast cells and angiogenesis were prominent. Since cartilage normally resists vascular penetration by the secretion of antiangiogenesis factors it is postulated that the hypertrophic chondrocytes in the mineralization zone produce proteases which inhibit antiangiogenesis and facilitate angiogenesis by mast cells.

While the burden of injury is large, injury does not feature on most people’s list of global grand challenges—climate change, equity, ageing, racism, human rights, poverty, COVID-19. Each person’s ‘grand challenge list’ is different. What is yours? Does injury feature? As an injury prevention researcher, how do I make sense of a list of global grand challenges that does not include injury? As a practitioner, how can I achieve influence in a world that does not recognise injury as an important problem? There has been a tendency to explain the importance of injury prevention by highlighting the burden of injury then fragment the overall problem into its components (road safety, falls, drowning, etc) before developing countermeasures to address the burden. Rather …

The contemporary public health model for injury and violence prevention is a four-step process, which has been difficult to fully actualize in real-world contexts. This difficulty results from challenges in bridging science to practice and developing and applying population-level approaches. Prevention programmes and policies are embedded within and impacted by a range of system-level factors, which must be considered and actively managed when addressing complex public health challenges involving multiple sectors and stakeholders. To address these concerns, a systemic approach to population-level injury and violence prevention is being developed and explored by the Division of Analysis, Research, and Practice Integration in the National Center for Injury Prevention and Control at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This article makes the case for and provides a high-level overview of this systemic approach, its various components, and how it is being applied in one governmental unit.

Primary objective: People often misattribute stroke survivors' symptoms to other causes such as their personality, especially when the survivors are young. As a result, these stroke survivors experience feelings of resentment towards and from their acquaintances, and may struggle to retain employment. This study aimed to clarify how people's misattributions for stroke symptoms were affected by varying information about the stroke. Methods: Experiment 1 examined whether the stroke survivor's age (72, 32 or unstated) and the information about the person's stroke (no information, explicit stroke or implied stroke) influenced participants' causal attributions for the stroke survivor's four ambiguous symptoms, such as fatigue. Experiment 2 examined the effect of the rapidity (a week or a year) with which the symptoms appeared. Results: When the scenario explicitly referred to stroke, participants attributed the ambiguous symptoms more to stroke, whereas when it did not mention stroke, participants attributed these symptoms more to other factors. When stroke was merely implied by reference to unilateral paralysis, participants rated stroke the best explanation when the target person was 72 but not when he was 32. Experiment 2 showed that stating that the symptoms happened rapidly heightened attributions to stroke in the 72-year-old but not the 32-year-old. Conclusions: These findings show how different information about stroke survivors affect people's attributions for survivors' behaviour; this has important implications for accurate diagnosis and effective rehabilitation that targets these attributions.

Background: Treatment with sacubitril-valsartan reduces mortality and heart failure (HF) events in HF with reduced ejection fraction and may reduce HF hospitalization in women with HF with preserved ejection fraction. Methods: EVALUATE-HF randomized 464 participants (109 women) with HF with reduced ejection fraction to sacubitril-valsartan or enalapril for 12 weeks. Documented left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≤0.40 within the prior 12 months was required, although core laboratory LVEF>0.40 was permitted. Assessments of aortic stiffness (pulse pressure and characteristic impedance, Z c ) were performed at baseline and at trough and 4 hours postdose at weeks 4 and 12. Results: In models of change from baseline adjusted for baseline value, treatment with sacubitril-valsartan produced greater overall reductions in mean arterial pressure (treatment group difference, −3.0±0.8 mm Hg, P P c were greater in the sacubitril-valsartan group (−16±6 dyne×second/cm 5 , P =0.012). Post hoc analyses found evidence of effect modification by LVEF (interaction P =0.036). With LVEFc were greater in the sacubitril-valsartan group (trough, −3±8 dyne×second/cm 5 versus post-dose, −17±8 dyne×second/cm 5 ; interaction P =0.024) with no sex difference (treatment×sex interaction, P =0.3). With LVEF≥0.40, treatment with sacubitril-valsartan was associated with greater overall reductions in Z c in women (women, −80±21 dyne×second/cm 5 versus men, −20±13 dyne×second/cm 5 ; interaction P =0.019). Conclusions: In prespecified analyses that include pre- and postdose assessments at 4 and 12 weeks, treatment with sacubitril-valsartan was associated with greater postdose reductions in aortic Z c . In a post hoc analysis, sacubitril-valsartan was associated with sustained reductions in Z c in women with LVEF≥0.40. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov ; Unique Identifier: NCT02874794.

Natural hazards such as earthquakes and tsunami can have adverse impacts on infrastructures and populations globally. In Wellington, New Zealand, perception of these risks is high but many people are poorly prepared. Using the Theory of Planned Behaviour in a pre-registered longitudinal study, we assessed intentions, cognitions, and beliefs about the behaviour of preparing for natural hazards at Time 1 (N= 153) and self-reported behaviour one month later with 61 participants from the sample at Time 2. Experiential attitudes, instrumental attitudes, self-efficacy, and perceived descriptive norms explained approximately 34% of the variance in intentions, which in turn predicted preparation for natural hazards, although confidence in this result is qualified by the small sample size. Further, this study identified several key beliefs related to preparing, such as the belief that preparing helps people to get through a natural hazard event better, that people can make the effort to prepare, and that preparing can be fun and rewarding. These beliefs offer specific and tangible factors which can be efficiently addressed in public education campaigns. Secondly, this study addressed a number of common methodological limitations in how the Theory of Planned Behaviour is conceptualised, applied, and measured, by incorporating consistent inclusion of constructs and belief measures and coherence between measures of intentions and behaviour. This research supports the implementation of the two-factor distinction, splitting attitudes into instrumental and experiential, social norms into descriptive and injunctive, and perceived behavioural control into controllability and self-efficacy as well as including the belief measures which indirectly explain intentions. The Theory of Planned Behaviour has a long history of beneficial applications to a variety of behaviours, but the recommendations made here for future use aim to improve the usefulness of the theory in research beyond natural hazards, including comparisons of findings between studies.

The so-called 'fatal five' behaviours (drink and drug driving, distraction and inattention, speeding, fatigue, and failure to wear a seat belt) are known to be the major behavioural contributory factors to road trauma. However, little is known about the factors that lead to drivers engaging in each behaviour. This article presents the findings from a study which collected and analysed data on the factors that lead to drivers engaging in each behaviour. The study involved a survey of drivers' perceptions of the causes of each behaviour and a subject matter expert workshop to gain the views of road safety experts. The results were mapped onto a systems ergonomics model of the road transport system in Queensland, Australia, to show where in the system the factors reside. In addition to well-known factors relating to drivers' knowledge, experience and personality, additional factors at the higher levels of the road transport system related to road safety policy, transport system design, road rules and regulations, and societal issues were identified. It is concluded that the fatal five behaviours have a web of interacting contributory factors underpinning them and are systems problems rather than driver-centric problems. The implications for road safety interventions are discussed.

We investigated responses to the 2013 Cook Strait earthquake sequence, New Zealand. This included two foreshocks (M5.7 and M5.8) and a mainshock doublet pair: M6.5 Cook Strait (CS) earthquake on 21st July and M6.6 Lake Grassmere (LG) earthquake on Friday 16th August. We examined relationships between preparedness, experience and beliefs during the earthquakes, as well as concern and subsequent preparedness actions. Results indicate that earthquake characteristics (e.g., time, location) influence the types of preparedness actions. While there was a reduction in new actions from the first mainshock doublet earthquake (CS) to the second (LG), there were a large number of participants who reviewed or revisited their prior actions, related to their beliefs about impacts, in a form of problem-focused targeted action. Females took more actions than did males, and had a higher rate of immediate aftershock concern. For all participants, concern was greater after the CS earthquake than after the full earthquake sequence, supporting the findings of McClure et al. (2016) that there is a limited window after an event to maximise the opportunity for effective preparedness initiatives. Findings additionally suggest that such post-earthquake preparedness initiatives should consider the impacts that elicited the highest rate of concern in an event, and should tailor messages towards them. While this earthquake sequence resulted in low levels of impact and damage, it presents interesting findings regarding how disruption (in lieu of major damage) influences earthquake preparedness actions, which is particularly important to understand in highly active regions often exposed to smaller impact events.

Bismaleimide (BMI) resins are gaining popularity as matrix materials in carbon fiber composites, especially in high temperature applications, due to their very high glass transition temperatures. Extended elevated temperature exposure can cause a decrease in the matrix dominated properties of BMI-matrix composites due to thermal damage mechanisms that can be chemical (crosslinking, oxidation) or physical (microcracking, delamination) in nature. The chemical damage begins at lower thermal exposures than the physical damage; however standard ultrasonic testing (UT) techniques detect only the physical damage, which is not apparent until a significant loss in matrix dominated properties, such as shear strength, have already occurred. In this study, a thermal damage detection method using a handheld Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectrometer to detect chemical changes caused by thermal exposure of Solvay 5250-4/IM7 BMI composite laminates was investigated. Infrared spectra were collected from samples with varying levels of thermal exposure. The spectra were analyzed using multivariate analysis techniques. The FTIR measurements were combined with mechanical property changes measured using short beam strength testing (ASTM D2344-16 ) to develop a model which identified the onset and extent of damage by predicting the change in interlaminar shear strength based on IR spectral changes. We compare our model's performance to ultrasonic inspection as a method for identifying the onset of thermal damage. The FTIR based method detected statistically significant decreases in interlaminar shear strength at thermal exposures well below those causing UT-detectable damage.

Although many countries have legislation requiring strengthening of earthquake prone buildings, there are significant obstacles to retrofitting these buildings to make them more resilient. This research examines actions in regard to earthquake prone commercial and public buildings in Wellington and checks on private homes following the 2010/2011 Canterbury earthquakes and the 2013 Seddon/Cook Strait earthquakes. The study obtained data on commercial and public buildings removed from the Wellington City Council Earthquake-prone Buildings List (EQPB List) from 2012 to 2016 due to various mitigation actions (e.g., demolition and strengthening). The study also obtained rates of self-initiated voluntary Quakecheck home assessments for the same period. Results indicate ongoing removal of significant numbers of buildings from the EQPB List in this period, with strengthening being the most frequent action. This finding suggests that despite real obstacles, various incentives including legislation are leading to consistent earthquake preparation over time, often before the legislative deadline. In contrast with the EQPB data, the Quakecheck data indicate a sharp but short-lived spike after the Seddon / Cook Strait earthquakes. As a marker of self-initiated mitigation action, this brief spike suggests that in the absence of relevant legislation or insurance incentives, citizens’ actions are only briefly influenced by the experience of an earthquake. These contrasting findings for EQPBs and Quakechecks suggest the value of legislation to drive mitigation actions for all buildings.

People tolerate different levels of risk owing to a variety of hazards. Previous research shows that the psychometric properties of hazards predict people's tolerance of them. However, this work has not taken into account events such as earthquakes. The present study tested how earthquakes score vis-à-vis risk properties and risk tolerance as compared to five other familiar hazards. Participants from Wellington, New Zealand (N=139) rated these six hazards using measures of risk characteristics and risk tolerance. Participants demonstrated different levels of risk tolerance for the different hazards and viewed earthquakes as having similar risk features to nuclear power. They also preferred different risk mitigation strategies for earthquakes (more government funding) to the other five hazards (stronger legislation). In addition, earthquake risk tolerance was predicted by different risk characteristics than the other five hazards. These findings will help risk communicators in identifying which risk characteristics to target to influence citizens' risk tolerance.

Social norms have been successfully applied in health promotion and environmental conservation, but their potential for encouraging natural hazard preparation is relatively untested. This research extends the focus theory of normative conduct to natural hazards and cognitive-behavioral outcomes by examining whether focusing individuals on descriptive and injunctive norms increases their support for earthquake-strengthening legislation in a seismically active city: Wellington, New Zealand. In a large community sample ( N = 690), the injunctive norm condition increased support for the legislation compared with the control, whereas the descriptive norm condition did not. In contrast, the descriptive norm condition raised judgments of the feasibility of the strengthening work compared with the control, whereas the injunctive norm condition did not. These findings support previous research demonstrating the differing effects of descriptive and injunctive forms of normative information, and suggest that using both in the same communication is the best strategy for enhancing support for earthquake-strengthening legislation.

With visible disabilities, observers tend to overgeneralise from the disability. In contrast, with invisible disabilities such as traumatic brain injury and stroke, observers often fail to allow for challenges resulting from the disability. Persons who have suffered a stroke claim that people misunderstand their symptoms and stigmatise them as a result of these symptoms. This misunderstanding, which happens particularly with young survivors of stroke, may reflect people's causal attributions for symptoms that follow a stroke. Using a scenario design, this cross-sectional study examined whether people attribute ambiguous symptoms that may result from stroke to other causes (the stroke survivor's personality and age) and whether these attributions reflect the age of the stroke survivor. Participants (N = 120) read scenarios describing a male who was aged either 22, 72, or whose age was unstated and who showed four symptom changes: fatigue, depression, irritability and reduced friendships. For each symptom change, participants rated three causal attributions: the person's age, his personality and stroke. The age of the person in the scenario affected attributions; when the person in the scenario was 22, participants attributed his symptoms significantly more to his personality than to his age or stroke, whereas when he was 72, participants attributed his symptoms more to his age than to his personality or stroke and when his age was unstated, they attributed his symptoms equally to age, stroke and personality. Because misattributions for stroke symptoms hinder rehabilitation, therapy can target people's misattributions to enhance rehabilitation for survivors of stroke.

This study aimed to investigate the factors associated with the choice of trains over other means of suicide. We performed a case-control study using data on all suicides in Victoria, Australia between 2009 and 2012. Cases were those who died by rail suicide and controls were those who died by suicide by any other means. A logistic regression model was used to estimate the association between the choice of trains and a range of individual-level and neighbourhood-level factors. Individuals who were never married had double odds of using trains compared to individuals who were married. Those from areas with a higher proportion of people who travel to work by train also had greater odds of dying by railway suicide compared to those from areas with a relatively lower proportion of people who travel to work by train. Prevention efforts should consider limiting access to the railways and other evidence-based suicide prevention activities.

Surface tumours of bone may be a cause of confusion and diagnostic difficulty. Confusion may arise from the several descriptive adjectives used – parosteal, periosteal and juxtacortical. Diagnostic difficulties may arise from the lack of awareness of less common entities, insufficient biopsy sampling and a failure to understand the precise relationship of a lesion and the bone surface. In this review we define and classify the important lesions and indicate imaging, macroscopic and microscopic features which are useful for diagnosis.

There is an ever-increasing need for school psychology training programs to demonstrate their ability to produce competent practitioners. One method of addressing this need is through the assessment of self-efficacy. However, little research on self-efficacy in school psychology exists likely due to the lack of a psychometrically sound measure of this construct. To address this gap, we examined the construct validity of the Huber Inventory of Self-Efficacy for School Psychologists Research Version (HIS-SP-RV), a preexisting measure of self-efficacy, with a sample of 520 school psychology graduate students. Results suggest that the HIS-SP-RV is not a valid measure of trainee self-efficacy. We then created and conducted a psychometric evaluation of a shortened measure, the Huber Inventory of Trainee Self-Efficacy (HITS). Results supported the validity of a five-factor model. Implications for the use of the HITS for program evaluation, to improve trainee competence, and for future research are discussed.

Objective An average of 91 people in the United States die every day from an opioid-related overdose (including prescription opioids and heroin). The direct dispensing of opioids from health care practitioner offices has been linked to opioid-related harms. The objective of this study is to describe the changing nature of the volume of this type of prescribing at the state level. Methods This descriptive study examines the distribution of opioids by practitioners using 1999-2015 Automation of Reports and Consolidated Orders System data. Analyses were restricted to opioids distributed to practitioners. Amount distributed (morphine milligram equivalents [MMEs]) and number of practitioners are presented. Results Patterns of distribution to practitioners and the number of practitioners varied markedly by state and changed dramatically over time. Comparing 1999 with 2015, the MME distributed to dispensing practitioners decreased in 16 states and increased in 35. Most notable was the change in Florida, which saw a peak of 8.94 MMEs per 100,000 persons in 2010 (the highest distribution in all states in all years) and a low of 0.08 in 2013. Discussion This study presents the first state estimates of office-based dispensing of opioids. Increases in direct dispensing in recent years may indicate a need to monitor this practice and consider whether changes are needed. Using controlled substances data to identify high prescribers and dispensers of opioids, as well as examining overall state trends, is a foundational activity to informing the response to potentially high-risk clinical practices.

In its modern form, injury prevention is about 60 years old.1 2 For all of this time injury prevention has been a leader in the field of academic public health. Injury prevention has led the way in multidisciplinary and transdisciplinary thinking, has been an early adopter of technologies supporting the data revolution and has pioneered the development of implementation science to achieve population-level improvements. In the 1960s, Haddon was explicitly linking the principles of engineering to those of epidemiology, in defining kinetic energy as the causal agent of injury (which he recommended be managed using a host-agent-environment/primary-secondary-tertiary prevention model).3 In the 1980s, authors in the USA were describing trauma deaths as a system performance issue,4 and in the 1990s the Swedish Government was articulating a systems solution to the escalating problem of road crash injury.5 With its …

Background: For countries with strong border control and an epidemic that is not yet advanced, there is an opportunity to eliminate SARS-CoV-2 that is causing the COVID-19 pandemic. We show how public health policies and their effects can be modelled to estimate the probability of elimination of SARS-COV-2 under i) strict physical distancing policies implemented in New Zealand and Australia on the 26th and 28th March, respectively, continuing until such time that elimination is achieved; and ii) the same policy, but with physical distancing decaying over 60 days to 26th and 28th of May. Methods: We developed an agent-based SEIR model that simulated key aspects of both country’s populations, disease, spatial and behavioural dynamics, as well as the mechanism and effect of public health policy responses on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Findings: Under maintained strong physical distancing, we estimated a median elimination date of July 12th for Australia (95% SI: June 5th to August 28th) and June 3rd for New Zealand (95% SI May 4th to June 27th). A 90% probability of elimination is achievable in Australia on August 17th (95% SI: August 8th – August 30th) and on June 14th (95% SI: June 17th – June 29th) in New Zealand. However, under our scenario of decaying adherence to physical distancing from implementation to 60 days post restrictions, a rebound in SARS-CoV-2 infections (i.e., a second wave) was likely in Australia and possibly in New Zealand. At 100 days, the probability of elimination was reduced to 10% in Australia and 68% in New Zealand. Interpretation: The findings suggest that with the effective implementation and maintenance of public health policies limiting physical interaction, it was possible to estimate a pattern the elimination of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in both countries. It seems highly likely NZ will have successfully eliminated as of 8 June, but not in Australia; the latter is consistent with our lower probabilities that modelled less stringent restrictions applied in Australia.

Background: For countries with strong border control and an epidemic that is not yet advanced, there is an opportunity to eliminate community transmission of SARS-CoV-2. We show how public health policies and their effects can be modelled to estimate the likely progression of SARS-COV-2 under i) strict physical distancing policies implemented in New Zealand and Australia on the 26 th and 28 th March, 2020 respectively, and ii) from September 1st, 2020 in Victoria, Australia as this state planned its exit from a significant second wave of infections. Methods: We developed a dynamic, public health policy model using an agent-based framework that simulated key aspects of both country’s populations, disease, spatial and behavioural dynamics, as well as the mechanism and effect of public health policy responses on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. We demonstrate the model’s development and application through the first wave of infections in New Zealand, and first and second wave of infections experienced in Australia. Findings: Under maintained strong physical distancing, we originally estimated a median elimination date of July 12th for Australia (95% SI: June 5th to August 28th) and June 3rd for New Zealand (95% SI May 4th to June 27th). We estimated a 90% probability of elimination was achievable in Australia on August 17th (95% SI: August 8th – August 30th) and on June 14th (95% SI: June 17th – June 29th) in New Zealand. However, under our scenario of decaying adherence to physical distancing from implementation to 60 days post restrictions, we predicted a resurgence in SARS-CoV-2 infections (i.e., a second wave) was likely in Australia and possibly in New Zealand. At 100 days, the probability of elimination was reduced to 10% in Australia and 68% in New Zealand. Having demonstrated the utility of our model above, the subsequent adaptation of the model in Victoria, Australia estimated that a threshold of less than 5 new cases per day over 14 days (from a peak of ~500 in August) could be achieved on or around the 17th of October. This would enable Victoria to move to, and sustain, lower levels of restrictions to movement and trade than had been possible under its strict lockdown policy. Interpretation: The findings suggest that during Australia and NZ’s first wave of infections, elimination of community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in both countries through effective implementation and maintenance of public health interventions was possible. Subsequently, the structure and function of the agent-based policy model developed to analyse the effect of policies during wave 1 has been instrumental in supporting decision-making among public health authorities during Australia’s current second wave of infections. Funding Statement: MS is funded by a NHMRC Fellowship (APP1136250), JT is funded by an ARC DECRA Fellowship (DE180101411). Declaration of Interests: None to declare.

In this ecological study, we attempt to quantify the extent to which differences in homicide and suicide death rates between three countries, and among states/provinces within those countries, may be explained by differences in their social, economic, and structural characteristics. We examine the relationship between state/province level measures of societal risk factors and state/province level rates of violent death (homicide and suicide) across Australia, Canada, and the United States. Census and mortality data from each of these three countries were used. Rates of societal level characteristics were assessed and included residential instability, self-employment, income inequality, gender economic inequity, economic stress, alcohol outlet density, and employment opportunities). Residential instability, self-employment, and income inequality were associated with rates of both homicide and suicide and gender economic inequity was associated with rates of suicide only. This study opens lines of inquiry around what contributes to the overall burden of violence-related injuries in societies and provides preliminary findings on potential societal characteristics that are associated with differences in injury and violence rates across populations., Highlights • This study opens lines of inquiry around what contributes to the overall burden of violence-related injuries in societies. • Differences in homicide and suicide death between and within countries may be explained by social, economic, and structural characteristics. • Residential instability, self-employment, and income inequality were associated with rates of both homicide and suicide. • Gender economic inequity was associated with rates of suicide only.

This report presents findings from a follow-up exploratory study of the development of writing ability in an attempt to identify key component skills and competencies for elementary school literacy learners, grades 2nd, 4th and 6th. The first evaluation consisted in scoring first draft narrative texts for coherence, the second, an assessment of effective self-correction strategies. These two measures were compared to the results of a third test, of metalinguistic awareness related to children’s ability to distinguish between the two languages that they know, and those of a fourth measure of orthographic knowledge. Participants were bilingual elementary school students from an indigenous community in Central Mexico. Results point to important opportunities in future research for the understanding of how metalinguistic awareness is related to literacy learning.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to understand how framing messages about earthquake risk affect judgements about legislation requiring the strengthening of earthquake-prone buildings. Design/methodology/approach Scenarios described the legislation with a general population sample (n=271). Two types of framing effects were examined in a 2 (valence frame: positive or negative or positive) by 2 (numerical format frame: frequency/number or percentage) experimental design. Findings Scenarios reporting the number of earthquake-prone buildings (negative frequency format) increased support for the earthquake-strengthening legislation more than the same message framed positively (frequency number of resilient building) or as a percentage. Demographic variables such as previous earthquake experience and gender interacted with the framing effects, and other variables also predicted support for the legislation were identified. Research limitations/implications These results have direct implications for the use of framing effects messages in communications about earthquake risk and the wider domain. Originality/value This is the first study to show that the way the risk is framed affects citizens’ judgement of the value of earthquake legislation.