Search

The Yellow River Basin (YRB) has experienced severe floods and continuous riverbed elevation throughout history. Global climate change has been suggested to be driving a worldwide increase in flooding risk. However, owing to insufficient evidence, the quantitative correlation between flooding and climate change remains ill-defined. We present a long time series of maximum flood discharge in the YRB dating back to 1843 compiled from historical documents and instrument measurements. Variations in yearly maximum flood discharge show distinct periods: a dramatic decreasing period from 1843 to 1950, and an oscillating gentle decreasing from 1950 to 2021, with the latter period also showing increasing more extreme floods. A Mann-Kendall test analysis suggests that the latter period can be further split into two distinct sub-periods: an oscillating gentle decreasing period from 1950 to 2000, and a clear recent increasing period from 2000 to 2021. We further predict that climate change will cause an ongoing remarkable increase in future flooding risk and an ∼44.4 billion US dollars loss of floods in the YRB in 2100.

Ecological stability (ES) is recognized as a crucial factor for sustainable development at global and regional scales. However, the importance of this factor was not considered significant. Hence, the main aim of this study was to introduce a new approach that focuses on detecting ES over the Maharloo watershed in Iran. To achieve this goal, we extracted land use and land cover (LULC) data from the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform by applying the random forest (RF) machine learning method, which obtained Kappa statistics of 0.85, 0.86, and 0.87 for the years 2002, 2013, and 2023, respectively. We identified both stable and unstable regions based on LULC changes and employed them using machine learning to forecast the ES. The most important predictors of ES were elevation, soil organic carbon index, precipitation, and salinity. The results of this research revealed that certain areas within the Maharloo watershed have experienced ecological instability in recent years, with gardens showing the highest percentage (60.65 %) of instability among all land-use categories. The performance and validation of our model suggest that the study results are reliable (AUC = 0.86). This study offers detailed maps of ES and trends, offering valuable insights for decision makers to support landscape conservation and restoration efforts. Overall, the findings contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the ecological dynamics of the Maharloo watershed and provide valuable insights for sustainable development and conservation efforts in other regions.

Wetlands have rich biological diversity and productivity, and support unique ecological functions. However, wetlands worldwide are under threat owing to the pressures of development and climate change. We analysed the extent and water balance of 21 important wetlands in Iran from 1990 to 2022 based on Landsat 5, 7, 8, and 9, and “Sentinel-2 satellite images” and Era5-land in the “Google Earth Engine (GEE)” platform. We performed morphometric analyses using NKU-MAN and the Mann-Kendall test to estimate the trends for wetland water bodies. Most seasonal water balance maxima occurred in January, followed by February and, in some cases, in the adjacent months, whilst the minima primarily occurred in May (nine wetlands) and June (five wetlands). Most importantly, the results revealed a gradual decrease in the size of the water bodies over the course of the study period, although this trend was not statistically significant for all water bodies. The findings of this study provide information that can be used by policymakers, planners, scientists, and residents to assess and manage sustainable water usage in wetland watersheds in a changing climate.

Beijing, China’s capital city, has experienced decades of severe land subsidence due to the long-term overexploitation of groundwater. The implementation of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) and artificial ecological restoration have significantly changed Beijing’s hydro-ecological and geological environment in recent years, leading to a widespread rise in groundwater levels. However, whether the related land subsidence has slowed down or reversed under these measures has not yet been effectively monitored and quantitatively analyzed in terms of time and space. Accordingly, in this study, we proposed using an improved time-series deformation method, which combines persistent scatterers and distributed scatterers, to process Sentinel-1 images from 2015 to 2022 in the Beijing Plain region. We performed a geospatial analysis to gain a better understanding of how the new hydrological conditions changed the pattern of deformation on the Beijing Plain. The results indicated that our combined PS and DS method provided more measurements both in total quantity and spatial density than conventional PSI methods. The land subsidence in the Beijing Plain area has been effectively alleviated from a subsidence region of approximately 1377 km2 in 2015 to only approximately 78 km2 in 2022. Ecological restoration areas in the northeastern part of the Plain have even rebounded over this period, at a maximum of approximately 40 mm in 2022. The overall pattern of ground deformation (subsidence and uplift) is negatively correlated with changes in the groundwater table (decline and rise). Local deformation is controlled by the thickness of the compressible layer and an active fault. The year 2015, when anthropogenic water transfers were eliminated and ecological measures to recharge groundwater were implemented, was the crucial turning point of the change in the deformation trend in the subsidence history of Beijing. Our findings carry significance, not only for China, but also for other areas where large-scale groundwater extractions are causing severe ground subsidence or rebound.

Mount Meager is a deeply eroded quaternary volcanic complex located in southwestern British Columbia (BC) and is known for its frequent large landslides. In 2010, the south face of Mount Meager collapsed, generating a long-runout debris avalanche that was one of the largest landslides (50 × 106 m3) in Canadian history. Over the past 14 years, the landslide deposit has been reworked by stream action, delivering large amounts of sediment to Lillooet River, just downstream. In this study, we investigate 10 years of geomorphic evolution of the landslide deposit using orthophotos and digital elevation models (DEMs) generated using Structure from Motion (SfM) photogrammetry on aerial photographs acquired during unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) surveys. The SfM products were used to produce a series of precise maps that highlight the geomorphological changes along the lower Meager Creek within the runout area of the landslide. Comparison of DEMs produced from 2010, 2012, 2015, and 2019 imagery allowed us to calculate deposit volume changes related to erosion, transport, and redeposition of landslide material. We estimate that about 1.1 × 106 m3 of sediment was eroded from the landslide deposit over the period 2015–2019. About 5.2 × 105 m3 of that sediment was redeposited inside the study area. About 5.8 × 105 m3 of sediment, mainly sand, silt, and clay, were exported from the study area and are being carried by Lillooet River towards Pemberton, 40 km from Mount Meager, and farther downstream. These remobilized sediments likely reduce the Lillooet River channel capacity and thus increase flood hazards to the communities of Pemberton and Mount Currie. Our study indicates a landslide persistence in the landscape, with an estimated 47-year half-life decay, suggesting that higher flood hazard conditions related to increased sediment supply may last longer than previously estimated. This study shows the value of using SfM in tandem with historic aerial photographs, UAV photos, and high-resolution satellite imagery for determining sediment budgets in fluvial systems.

Abstract Floods are both complex and destructive, and in most parts of the world cause injury, death, loss of agricultural land, and social disruption. Flood susceptibility (FS) maps are used by land‐use managers and land owners to identify areas that are at risk from flooding and to plan accordingly. This study uses machine learning ensembles to produce objective and reliable FS maps for the Haraz watershed in northern Iran. Specifically, we test the ability of the support vector regression (SVR), together with linear kernel (LK), base classifier (BC), and hyper‐parameter optimization (HPO), to identify flood‐prone areas in this watershed. We prepared a map of 201 past floods to predict future floods. Of the 201 flood events, 151 (75%) were used for modeling and 50 (25%) were used for validation. Based on the relevant literature and our field survey of the study area, 10 effective factors were selected and prepared for flood zoning. The results show that three of the 10 factors are most important for predicting flood‐sensitive areas, specifically and in order of importance, slope, distance to the river and river. Additionally, the SVR‐HPO model, with area under the curve values of 0.986 and 0.951 for the training and testing phases, outperformed the other two tested models.

The characterization of landslides located in remote areas poses significant challenges due to the costs of reaching the sites and the lack of reliable subsurface data to constrain geological interpretations. In this paper, the advantages of combining field and remote sensing techniques to investigate the deformation and stability of rock slopes are demonstrated. The characterization of the Fels landslide, a large, slowly deforming rock slope in central Alaska, is described. Historical aerial imagery is used to highlight the relationship between glacier retreat and developing instability. Airborne laser scanning (ALS) and Structure-from-Motion (SfM) datasets are used to investigate the structural geological setting of the landslide, revealing a good agreement between structural discontinuities at the outcrop and slope scales. The magnitude, plunge, and direction of slope surface displacements and their changes over time are studied using a multi-temporal synthetic aperture radar speckle-tracking (SAR ST) dataset. The analyses show an increase in displacement rates (i.e., an acceleration of the movement) between 2010 and 2020. Significant spatial variations of displacement direction and plunge are noted and correlated with the morphology of the failure surface reconstructed using the vector inclination method (VIM). In particular, steeper displacement vectors were reconstructed in the upper slope, compared to the central part, thus suggesting a change in basal surface morphology, which is largely controlled by rock mass foliation. Through this analytical approach, the Fels landslide is shown to be a slow-moving, compound rockslide, the displacement of which is controlled by structural geological features and promoted by glacier retreat.

Abstract The Chinese government has implemented measures to reduce poverty in the country. Specifically, the Targeted Poverty Alleviation (2013–2020) policy is a set of unique, large-scale and precise poverty control measures undertaken by China in an effort to eliminate absolute poverty. Deeply impoverished areas in the mountainous regions of Southwest China are also particularly prone to geological disasters. A poverty control policy might reduce risk from natural disasters in this region by changing human behaviour. However, it is unclear how the risk might change under the government’s poverty control measures. This paper uses power-law relations and negative binomial regression to analyse primary economic losses from geological disasters in Yunnan Province between 2009 and 2017. The results of the analysis show that the relation between the level of economic development and disaster losses in Yunnan Province changed from an inverted-U shape to a U shape in this period. While direct economic losses from geological disasters are falling, we find that losses in wealthy counties Yunnan Province have not decreased significantly and might even be increasing. In impoverished areas, poverty alleviation policies reduce the economic losses of geological disasters by reducing the vulnerability and exposure, and increasing the resilience. On the contrary, poverty reduction measures promote a concentration of population and wealth in non-poor areas, increasing the vulnerability and exposure, which in turn lead to an increase in direct economic losses from geological disasters. Therefore, in order to consolidate the achievements of poverty alleviation projects, the government needs to pay attention to the transfer of geological disaster risk caused by the policy-driven transformation of human social behaviour.

We analyze the sensitivity of a large (area extent ∼3 km2), deep-seated gravitational slope deformation (Fels slide, Alaska Range) to three specific drivers: (i) liquid surface water input from ERA-5 reanalysis snow melt and rainfall; (ii) locally projected seismic activity of Alaskan earthquakes; and (iii) lowering of Fels Glacier at the slide toe estimated from topographic data. A surface displacement map-series is derived from 1991 to 2016 spaceborne multi-sensor InSAR data (ERS, RADARSAT-1/2, ALOS, TerraSAR-X) using adaptive demodulation to unwrap interferograms of variable spatial resolution and quality. On this series we use independent component analysis (ICA) to uncover five displacement patterns that map to independently moving domains of the slide and then correlate the corresponding temporal pattern intensities with the suspected drivers. We find significant sub-annual correlation between displacement pattern intensities and seasonal water input variations. The correlation can be optimized, for each ICA pattern, by choosing appropriate values of temporal smoothing and lag to create depth-propagated versions of the water input driver. Lag time results ranging from one to 3 weeks relate to shallower and deeper propagations of water input, driving the different deformation patterns. For two of the deformation patterns, seasonal sensitivity to water input was strongly amplified by the 2002 Mw7.9 Denali earthquake. Sensitivity of these patterns remained high for 4 years until abruptly dropping to below pre-earthquake values, which suggests a highly non-linear modulation by the seismic driver. Other deformation patterns show a steady intensity increase that appears linked to the deglaciation driver. Despite these observations, the inter-annual variations in ICA pattern intensities show no clear predictability by individual drivers or driver combinations. This suggests that the mechanical and hydraulic evolution of the slide, especially after damaging events such as earthquakes or heavy rainfall, is a crucial factor not adequately modeled in our approach. Despite this limitation, our analysis provides the first direct evidence that the Fels slide comprises several independently moving domains that respond differently to the suspected drivers as is suggestive of a complex slope deformation.

Abstract We used three state-of-the-art machine learning techniques (boosted regression tree, random forest, and support vector machine) to produce a multi-hazard (MHR) map illustrating areas susceptible to flooding, gully erosion, forest fires, and earthquakes in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province, Iran. The earthquake hazard map was derived from a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. The mean decrease Gini (MDG) method was implemented to determine the relative importance of effective factors on the spatial occurrence of each of the four hazards. Area under the curve (AUC) plots, based on a validation dataset, were created for the maps generated using the three algorithms to compare the results. The random forest model had the highest predictive accuracy, with AUC values of 0.994, 0.982, and 0.885 for gully erosion, flooding, and forest fires, respectively. Approximately 41%, 40%, 28%, and 3% of the study area are at risk of forest fires, earthquakes, floods, and gully erosion, respectively.

The current limited approaches to calculating hillslope erosion rate hamper the study of the relationships among the rates of hillslope erosion, river incision, and tectonic uplift and hence the discussion of steady-state landscape evolution. In this paper, we use remote sensing and geochronological methods to calculate the upper and lower bounding hillslope erosion rates in the Qilian Shan range, Tibet. Our analysis focuses on five convex landslide sediment units derived from the weathered hillslopes at Qingyang Mountain on the tectonically active northeastern Tibetan Plateau. These sediment units range in thickness from 5.5 to 12.8 m and in volume from 119 × 103 to 260 × 103 m3. Based on field observations, measurements extracted from high-resolution DEMs, and optical stimulated luminescence (OSL) ages on fluvial terraces, we obtain lower and upper bounding rates of 0.13 ± 0.03 and 0.21 ± 0.04 mm/yr, respectively. Finally, we calculate incision rates, ranging from 0.21 ± 0.02 to 0.39 ± 0.01 mm/yr, from heights of a dated fluvial terrace above the present river and the time of abandonment of the associated bedrock strath estimated from OSL ages. The rates of hillslope erosion and river incision at Qingyang Mountain and the tectonic uplift of the Qilian Mountains are estimated to be within a factor of two over the past 117 ka, suggesting that a state of dynamic equilibrium has likely existed on this timescale.

Abstract Loess covers approximately 6.6% of China and forms thick extensive deposits in the northern and northwestern parts of the country. Natural erosional processes and human modification of thick loess deposits have produced abundant, potentially unstable steep slopes in this region. Slope deformation monitoring aimed at evaluating the mechanical behavior of a loess slope has shown a cyclic pattern of contraction and expansion. Such cyclic strain change on the slope materials can damage the loess and contribute to slope instability. The site showing this behavior is a 70-m high loess slope near Yan’an city in Shanxi Province, northwest China. A Ground-Based Synthetic Aperture Radar (GB-SAR) sensor and a displacement meter were used to monitor this cyclic deformation of the slope over a one-year period from September 2018 to August 2019. It is postulated that this cyclic behavior corresponds to thermal and moisture fluctuations, following energy conservation laws. To investigate the validity of this mechanism, physical models of soil temperature and moisture measured by hygrothermographs were used to simulate the observed cyclic deformations. We found good correlations between the models based on the proposed mechanism and the exhibited daily and annual cyclic contraction and expansion. The slope absorbed energy from the time of maximum contraction to the time of maximum expansion, and released energy from the time of maximum expansion to the time of maximum contraction. Recoverable cyclic deformations suggest stresses in the loess are within the elastic range, and non-recoverable cyclic deformations suggest damage of the loess material (breakage of bonds between soil grains), which could lead to instability. Based on these observations and the models, we developed a quantitative relationship between weather cycles and thermal deformation of the slope. Given the current climate change projections of temperature increases of up to 3.5 °C by 2100, the model estimates the loess slope to expand about 0.35 mm in average, which would be in addition to the current cyclic “breathing” behavior experienced by the slope.

Global atmospheric warming is causing physical and biotic changes in Earth’s high mountains at a rate that is likely unprecedented in the Holocene. We summarize changes in the presently glacierized mountains of northwest North America, including a rapid and large reduction in glacier ice and permafrost, a related increase in slope instability and landslides, river re-routing and other hydrological changes, and changing aquatic ecosystems. Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise and will likely do so for at least the next several decades, if not longer, and mountains will continue to warm, perhaps reaching temperatures up to several degrees Celsius warmer than present over the remainder of this century. As a result, the rate of physical and biotic changes documented in this paper is very likely to dramatically increase and transform high-mountain environments.

We provide lithostratigraphic and magnetostratigraphic data derived from a Plio-Pleistocene continental sediment sequence underlying the Altiplano plateau at La Paz, Bolivia. The record comprises six sections along the upper Río La Paz valley, totaling over one kilometre of exposure and forming a ~20-km transect oblique to the adjacent Cordillera Real. Lithostratigraphic characterization includes lithologic and stratigraphic descriptions of units and their contacts. We targeted gravel and diamicton units for paleomagnetic sampling to address gaps in the only previous magnetostratigraphic study from this area. Paleomagnetic data – magnetic susceptibility and primary remanent magnetization revealed by progressive alternating field demagnetization – are derived from 808 individually oriented samples of flat-lying, fine-grained sediments. The datasets enable characterization of paleo-surfaces within the sequence, correlation between stratigraphic sections, and differentiation of asynchronous, but lithologically similar units. Correlation of the composite polarity sequence to the geomagnetic polarity time scale supports a range of late Cenozoic paleoenvironmental topics of regional to global importance: the number and ages of early glaciations in the tropical Andes; interhemispheric comparison of paleoclimate during the Plio-Pleistocene climatic transition; timing of and controls on inter-American faunal exchange; and the variability of Earth's paleomagnetic field. Keywords: Plio-Pleistocene transition, Mid-Piacenzian warm period, Glacial stratigraphy, South America, Central Andes, Altiplano, Magnetostratigraphy, Detrital remanent magnetization, Magnetic susceptibility

In this work, a simple methodology for preliminarily assessing the magnitude of potential landslide-induced impulse waves’ attenuation in mountain lakes is presented. A set of metrics is used to define the geometries of theoretical mountain lakes of different sizes and shapes and to simulate impulse waves in them using the hydrodynamic software Flow-3D. The modeling results provide the ‘wave decay potential’, a ratio between the maximum wave amplitude and the flow depth at the shoreline. Wave decay potential is highly correlated with what is defined as the ‘shape product’, a metric that represents lake geometry. The relation between these two parameters can be used to evaluate wave dissipation in a natural lake given its geometric properties, and thus estimate expected flow depth at the shoreline. This novel approach is tested by applying it to a real-world event, the 2007 landslide-generated wave in Chehalis Lake (Canada), where the results match well with those obtained using the empirical equation provided by ETH Zurich (2019 Edition). This work represents the initial stage in the development of this method, and it encourages additional research and modeling in which the influence of the impacting characteristics on the resulting waves and flow depths is investigated.

Gully erosion destroys agricultural and domestic grazing land in many countries, especially those with arid and semi-arid climates and easily eroded rocks and soils. It also generates large amounts of sediment that can adversely impact downstream river channels. The main objective of this research is to accurately detect and predict areas prone to gully erosion. In this paper, we couple hybrid models of a commonly used base classifier (reduced pruning error tree, REPTree) with AdaBoost (AB), bagging (Bag), and random subspace (RS) algorithms to create gully erosion susceptibility maps for a sub-basin of the Shoor River watershed in northwestern Iran. We compare the performance of these models in terms of their ability to predict gully erosion and discuss their potential use in other arid and semi-arid areas. Our database comprises 242 gully erosion locations, which we randomly divided into training and testing sets with a ratio of 70/30. Based on expert knowledge and analysis of aerial photographs and satellite images, we selected 12 conditioning factors for gully erosion. We used multi-collinearity statistical techniques in the modeling process, and checked model performance using statistical indexes including precision, recall, F-measure, Matthew correlation coefficient (MCC), receiver operatic characteristic curve (ROC), precision−recall graph (PRC), Kappa, root mean square error (RMSE), relative absolute error (PRSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and relative absolute error (RAE). Results show that rainfall, elevation, and river density are the most important factors for gully erosion susceptibility mapping in the study area. All three hybrid models that we tested significantly enhanced and improved the predictive power of REPTree (AUC=0.800), but the RS-REPTree (AUC= 0.860) ensemble model outperformed the Bag-REPTree (AUC= 0.841) and the AB-REPTree (AUC= 0.805) models. We suggest that decision makers, planners, and environmental engineers employ the RS-REPTree hybrid model to better manage gully erosion-prone areas in Iran.

Mapping flood-prone areas is a key activity in flood disaster management. In this paper, we propose a new flood susceptibility mapping technique. We employ new ensemble models based on bagging as a meta-classifier and K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) coarse, cosine, cubic, and weighted base classifiers to spatially forecast flooding in the Haraz watershed in northern Iran. We identified flood-prone areas using data from Sentinel-1 sensor. We then selected 10 conditioning factors to spatially predict floods and assess their predictive power using the Relief Attribute Evaluation (RFAE) method. Model validation was performed using two statistical error indices and the area under the curve (AUC). Our results show that the Bagging−Cubic−KNN ensemble model outperformed other ensemble models. It decreased the overfitting and variance problems in the training dataset and enhanced the prediction accuracy of the Cubic−KNN model (AUC=0.660). We therefore recommend that the Bagging−Cubic−KNN model be more widely applied for the sustainable management of flood-prone areas.

We used a novel hybrid functional machine learning algorithm to predict the spatial distribution of landslides in the Sarkhoon watershed, Iran. We developed a new ensemble model which is a combination of a functional algorithm, stochastic gradient descent (SGD) and an AdaBoost (AB) Meta classifier namely ABSGD model to predict the landslides. The model incorporates 20 landslide conditioning factors, which we ranked using the least-square support vector machine (LSSVM) technique. For the modeling, we considered 98 landslide locations, of which 70% (79) were used for training and 30% (19) for validation processes. Model validation was performed using sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, the root mean square error (RMSE) and the area under the receiver operatic characteristic (AUC) curve. We also used soft computing benchmark models, including SGD, logistic regression (LR), logistic model tree (LMT) and functional tree (FT) algorithms for model validation and comparison. The selected conditioning factors were significant in landslide occurrence but distance to road was found to be the most important factor. The ABSGD model (AUC= 0.860) outperformed the LR (0.797), SGD (0.776), LMT (0.740) and FT (0.734) models. Our results confirm that the combined use of a functional algorithm and a Meta classifier prevents over-fitting, reduces noise and enhances the power prediction of the individual SGD algorithm for the spatial prediction of landslides.