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The United States government established a national goal of 50% plug-in vehicle penetration of the new light-duty vehicle fleet by 2030. Achievement of this goal is required to satisfy the country’s commitments to greenhouse-gas control under the 2015 Paris climate accords. Based on a market analysis of historical sales patterns, current and planned plug-in vehicle offerings, and sales forecasts for 2030, this article concludes that the US is unlikely to meet the 2030 goal without rapid commercialization of affordable plug-in vehicles, where affordable is defined as a price less than $45,000 per vehicle. Public policies are reviewed, in part based on European experience, that can accelerate the commercialization of affordable plug-in vehicles in the United States.

The transition to plug-in electric vehicles is examined from the consumer’s perspective. Since risk-averse consumers perceive disadvantages as well as advantages, consumers are reluctant to choose electric propulsion without significant nudges from the government. Norway, California, Germany and China are analyzed to determine why and how electric vehicles are promoted by public policies. Each jurisdiction has accomplished rates of electric-vehicle penetration that are far above the global average. This success is largely attributed to various policies which range from vehicle mandates, producer and/or consumer subsidies, or taxation in respective regions—otherwise PEVs remain relatively unappealing to risk-averse consumers. Demand and supply side policies have been effective tools in spurring adoption of the new electric propulsion system. Norway is one notable jurisdiction that has PEV penetration exceeding 80% of new vehicle sales despite no supply side incentives. Germany has recently surpassed California and China in PEV penetration rate, though all three jurisdictions exceeded 10 percent by 2020 or early 2021. Research is recommended to identify ways to encourage consumer adoption of electric vehicles.