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Introduction A few major clinical factors such as sex, obesity or comorbidities have already been associated with COVID-19 severity, but there is a need to identify new epidemiological, clinical, digital and biological characteristics associated with severity and perform deep phenotyping of patients according to severity. The objectives of the Predi-COVID study are (1) to identify new determinants of COVID-19 severity and (2) to conduct deep phenotyping of patients by stratifying them according to risk of complications, as well as risk factors for infection among household members of Predi-COVID participants (the Predi-COVID-H ancillary study).Methods and analysis Predi-COVID is a prospective, hybrid cohort study composed of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases in Luxembourg who will be followed up remotely for 1 year to monitor their health status and symptoms. Predi-COVID-H is an ancillary cohort study on household members of index cases included in Predi-COVID to monitor symptoms and household clusters in this high-risk population. A subcohort of up to 200 Predi-COVID and 300 Predi-COVID-H participants with biological samples will be included. Severity of infection will be evaluated by occurrence and duration of hospitalisation, admission and duration of stay in intensive care units or equivalent structures, provision of and duration of supplemental oxygen and ventilation therapy, transfer to another hospital, as well as the impact of infection on daily activities following hospital discharge.Ethics and dissemination The study has been approved by the National Research Ethics Committee of Luxembourg (study number 202003/07) in April 2020. An informed consent is signed by study participants. Scientific articles will be submitted to international peer-reviewed journals, along with press releases for lay audience for major results.Trial registration number NCT04380987.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate age-specific measles susceptibility in Australia and 17 European countries. METHODS: As part of the European Sero-Epidemiology Network 2 (ESEN2), 18 countries collected large national serum banks between 1996 and 2004. These banks were tested for measles IgG and the results converted to a common unitage to enable valid intercountry comparisons. Historical vaccination and disease incidence data were also collected. Age-stratified population susceptibility levels were compared to WHO European Region targets for measles elimination of < 15% in those aged 2-4 years, < 10% in 5-9-year-olds and < 5% in older age groups. FINDINGS: Seven countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Luxembourg, Spain, Slovakia, Slovenia and Sweden) met or came very close to the elimination targets. Four countries (Australia, Israel, Lithuania and Malta) had susceptibility levels above WHO targets in some older age groups indicating possible gaps in protection. Seven countries (Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, England and Wales, Ireland, Latvia and Romania) were deemed to be at risk of epidemics as a result of high susceptibility in children and also, in some cases, adults. CONCLUSION: Although all countries now implement a two-dose measles vaccination schedule, if the WHO European Region target of measles elimination by 2010 is to be achieved higher routine coverage as well as vaccination campaigns in some older age cohorts are needed in some countries. Without these improvements, continued measles transmission and outbreaks are expected in Europe.

OBJECTIVE: To standardize serological surveillance to compare rubella susceptibility in Australia and 16 European countries, and measure progress towards international disease-control targets. METHODS: Between 1996 and 2004, representative serum banks were established in 17 countries by collecting residual sera or community sampling. Serum banks were tested in each country and assay results were standardized. With a questionnaire, we collected information on current and past rubella vaccination programmes in each country. The percentage of seronegative (< 4 IU/ml) children (2-14 years of age) was used to evaluate rubella susceptibility, and countries were classified by seronegativity as group I (< 5%), group II (5-10%) or group III (> 10%). The proportion of women of childbearing age without rubella protection (< 10 IU/ml) was calculated and compared with WHO targets of < 5%. FINDINGS: Only Romania had no rubella immunization programme at the time of the survey; the remaining countries had a two-dose childhood schedule using the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine. The percentage of susceptible children defined five countries as group I, seven as group II and four as group III. Women of childbearing age without rubella protection were < 5% in only five countries. CONCLUSION: Despite the low reported incidence in many countries, strengthening the coverage of the routine two-dose of MMR vaccine among children is needed, especially in group III countries. Catch-up campaigns in older age groups and selective targeting of older females are needed in many countries to ensure necessary levels of protective immunity among women of childbearing age.

Few estimates exist of the life expectancy of HIV-positive adults receiving antiretroviral treatment (ART) in low- and middle-income countries. We aimed to estimate the life expectancy of patients starting ART in South Africa and compare it with that of HIV-negative adults.Data were collected from six South African ART cohorts. Analysis was restricted to 37,740 HIV-positive adults starting ART for the first time. Estimates of mortality were obtained by linking patient records to the national population register. Relative survival models were used to estimate the excess mortality attributable to HIV by age, for different baseline CD4 categories and different durations. Non-HIV mortality was estimated using a South African demographic model. The average life expectancy of men starting ART varied between 27.6 y (95% CI: 25.2-30.2) at age 20 y and 10.1 y (95% CI: 9.3-10.8) at age 60 y, while estimates for women at the same ages were substantially higher, at 36.8 y (95% CI: 34.0-39.7) and 14.4 y (95% CI: 13.3-15.3), respectively. The life expectancy of a 20-y-old woman was 43.1 y (95% CI: 40.1-46.0) if her baseline CD4 count was ≥ 200 cells/µl, compared to 29.5 y (95% CI: 26.2-33.0) if her baseline CD4 count was

In 2011, a novel strain of O104:H4 Escherichia coli caused a serious outbreak of foodborne hemolytic uremic syndrome and bloody diarrhea in Germany. Antibiotics were of questionable use and 54 deaths occurred. Candidate therapeutic bacteriophages that efficiently lyse the E. coli O104:H4 outbreak strain could be selected rather easily from a phage bank or isolated from the environment. It is argued that phage therapy should be more considered as a potential armament against the growing threat of (resistant) bacterial infections.

Hypertension and excess body weight are major risk factors of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in developing countries. In countries with a high HIV prevalence, it is unknown how increased antiretroviral treatment and care (ART) coverage has affected the prevalence of overweight, obesity, and hypertension. We conducted a health survey in 2010 based on the WHO STEPwise approach in 14,198 adult resident participants of a demographic surveillance area in rural South Africa to investigate factors associated with hypertension and excess weight including HIV infection and ART status. Women had a significantly higher median body mass index (BMI) than men (26.4 vs. 21.2 kg/m(2), p

Background The COVID-19 vaccination campaign in several European countries involved collaboration between public health and Primary Health Care (PHC).Objective To highlight the role of PHC professionals in the COVID-19 vaccination rollout, specifically in terms of vaccine administration, communication and contributing to vaccination population coverage.Methods A descriptive retrospective study of the COVID-19 vaccination campaign across 28 European countries was conducted, covering data from December 2020 to November 2021. Data were collected by key informants recruited from each country, who were health professionals involved in their national vaccination campaigns. Utilising an ad-hoc semi-structured questionnaire, information was gathered on organisation, communication strategies, priority groups, vaccine types, and vaccination pathways in PHC.Results PHC participated in communication strategies in 10 out of 28 countries, and vaccination was voluntary in most of them. The priority groups for vaccination varied across Europe, and the availability of vaccines in PHC differed between countries within the European Union (EU) and non-EU countries. The BioNTech Pfizer vaccine was the most widely available vaccine in most countries, followed by Moderna and AstraZeneca. PHC administered COVID-19 vaccines to the population, being the nurses the most involved, followed by general practitioners. Vaccination appointments were available online in 18/28 or by phone in 15/28, direct appointments at health centres were available in 8/28. In several countries, healthcare professionals who administered vaccines were given extra compensation for their role.Conclusion PHC professionals played a crucial role in the successful distribution and administration of COVID-19 vaccines in European countries.

In 2018, an upsurge in echovirus 30 (E30) infections was reported in Europe. We conducted a large-scale epidemiologic and evolutionary study of 1,329 E30 strains collected in 22 countries in Europe during 2016–2018. Most E30 cases affected persons 0–4 years of age (29%) and 25–34 years of age (27%). Sequences were divided into 6 genetic clades (G1–G6). Most (53%) sequences belonged to G1, followed by G6 (23%), G2 (17%), G4 (4%), G3 (0.3%), and G5 (0.2%). Each clade encompassed unique individual recombinant forms; G1 and G4 displayed >2 unique recombinant forms. Rapid turnover of new clades and recombinant forms occurred over time. Clades G1 and G6 dominated in 2018, suggesting the E30 upsurge was caused by emergence of 2 distinct clades circulating in Europe. Investigation into the mechanisms behind the rapid turnover of E30 is crucial for clarifying the epidemiology and evolution of these enterovirus infections.

Abstract Background Following a first wave in spring and gradual easing of lockdown, Luxembourg experienced an early second epidemic wave of SARS-CoV-2 before the start of summer school holidays on 15th July. This provided the opportunity to investigate the role of school-age children and school settings for transmission. Methods We compared the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 in school-age children, teachers and the general working population in Luxembourg during two epidemic waves: a spring wave from March–April 2020 corresponding to general lockdown with schools being closed and May–July 2020 corresponding to schools being open. We assessed the number of secondary transmissions occurring in schools between May and July 2020 using routine contact tracing data. Results During the first wave in March–April 2020 when schools were closed, the incidence in pupils peaked at 28 per 100,000, while during the second wave in May–July 2020 when schools were open, incidence peaked 100 per 100,000. While incidence of SARS-CoV-2 was higher in adults than in children during the first spring wave, no significant difference was observed during the second wave in early summer. Between May and July 2020, we identified a total of 390 and 34 confirmed COVID-19 cases among 90,150 school-age children and 11,667 teachers, respectively. We further estimate that 179 primary cases caused 49 secondary cases in schools. While some small clusters of mainly student-to-student transmission within the same class were identified, we did not observe any large outbreaks with multiple generations of infection. Conclusions Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 within Luxembourg schools was limited during an early summer epidemic wave in 2020. Precautionary measures including physical distancing as well as easy access to testing, systematic contact tracing appears to have been successful in mitigating transmission within educational settings.

In spring 2021, a long-term care facility (LTCF) of 154 residents in Luxembourg experienced a large severe, acute respiratory-syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak a few days after a vaccination campaign. We conducted an outbreak investigation and a serosurvey two months after the outbreak, compared attack rates (AR) among residents and staff, and calculated hospitalization and case-fatality rates (CFR). Whole genome sequencing (WGS) was performed to detect variants in available samples and results were compared to genomes published on GISAID. Eighty-four (55%) residents and forty-five (26%) staff members tested positive for SARS-CoV-2; eighteen (21%) residents and one (2.2%) staff member were hospitalized, and twenty-three (CFR: 27%) residents died. Twenty-seven (21% of cases) experienced a reinfection. Sequencing identified seventy-seven cases (97% of sequenced cases) with B.1.1.420 and two cases among staff with B.1.351. The outbreak strain B.1.1.420 formed a separate cluster from cases from other European countries. Convalescent and vaccinated residents had higher anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibody concentrations than vaccinated residents without infection (98% vs. 52%, respectively, with >120 RU/mL, p < 0.001). We documented an extensive outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 in an LTCF due to the presence of a specific variant leading to high CFR. Infection in vaccinated residents increased antibody responses. A single vaccine dose was insufficient to mitigate the outbreak.

Background: Transmission of respiratory pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2 depends on patterns of contact and mixing across populations. Understanding this is crucial to predict pathogen spread and the effectiveness of control efforts. Most analyses of contact patterns to date have focused on high-income settings. Methods: Here, we conduct a systematic review and individual-participant meta-analysis of surveys carried out in low- and middle-income countries and compare patterns of contact in these settings to surveys previously carried out in high-income countries. Using individual-level data from 28,503 participants and 413,069 contacts across 27 surveys, we explored how contact characteristics (number, location, duration, and whether physical) vary across income settings. Results: Contact rates declined with age in high- and upper-middle-income settings, but not in low-income settings, where adults aged 65+ made similar numbers of contacts as younger individuals and mixed with all age groups. Across all settings, increasing household size was a key determinant of contact frequency and characteristics, with low-income settings characterised by the largest, most intergenerational households. A higher proportion of contacts were made at home in low-income settings, and work/school contacts were more frequent in high-income strata. We also observed contrasting effects of gender across income strata on the frequency, duration, and type of contacts individuals made. Conclusions: These differences in contact patterns between settings have material consequences for both spread of respiratory pathogens and the effectiveness of different non-pharmaceutical interventions. Funding: This work is primarily being funded by joint Centre funding from the UK Medical Research Council and DFID (MR/R015600/1).

Background: To accompany the lifting of COVID-19 lockdown measures, Luxembourg implemented a mass screening (MS) programme. The first phase coincided with an early summer epidemic wave in 2020. Methods: rRT-PCR-based screening for SARS-CoV-2 was performed by pooling of samples. The infrastructure allowed the testing of the entire resident and cross-border worker populations. The strategy relied on social connectivity within different activity sectors. Invitation frequencies were tactically increased in sectors and regions with higher prevalence. The results were analysed alongside contact tracing data. Findings: The voluntary programme covered 49% of the resident and 22% of the cross-border worker populations. It identified 850 index cases with an additional 249 cases from contact tracing. Over-representation was observed in the services, hospitality and construction sectors alongside regional differences. Asymptomatic cases had a significant but lower secondary attack rate when compared to symptomatic individuals. Based on simulations using an agent-based SEIR model, the total number of expected cases would have been 42·9% (90% CI [-0·3, 96·7]) higher without MS. Mandatory participation would have resulted in a further difference of 39·7% [19·6, 59·2]. Interpretation: Strategic and tactical MS allows the suppression of epidemic dynamics. Asymptomatic carriers represent a significant risk for transmission. Containment of future outbreaks will depend on early testing in sectors and regions. Higher participation rates must be assured through targeted incentivisation and recurrent invitation. Funding: This project was funded by the Luxembourg Ministries of Higher Education and Research, and Health.

Campylobacter jejuni is the leading cause of bacterial gastroenteritis, which has motivated the monitoring of genetic profiles circulating in Luxembourg since 13 years. From our integrated surveillance using a genotyping strategy based on an extended MLST scheme including gyrA and porA markers, an unexpected endemic pattern was discovered in the temporal distribution of genotypes. We aimed to test the hypothesis of stable lineages occurrence by implementing whole genome sequencing (WGS) associated with comprehensive and internationally validated schemes. This pilot study assessed four WGS-based typing schemes to classify a panel of 108 strains previously identified as recurrent or sporadic profiles using this in-house typing system. The strain collection included four common lineages in human infection (N = 67) initially identified from recurrent combination of ST-gyrA-porA alleles also detected in non-human samples: veterinary (N = 19), food (N = 20), and environmental (N = 2) sources. An additional set of 19 strains belonging to sporadic profiles completed the tested panel. All the strains were processed by WGS by using Illumina technologies and by applying stringent criteria for filtering sequencing data; we ensure robustness in our genomic comparison. Four typing schemes were applied to classify the strains: (i) the cgMLST SeqSphere+ scheme of 637 loci, (ii) the cgMLST Oxford scheme of 1,343 loci, (iii) the cgMLST INNUENDO scheme of 678 loci, and (iv) the wgMLST INNUENDO scheme of 2,795 loci. A high concordance between the typing schemes was determined by comparing the calculated adjusted Wallace coefficients. After quality control and analyses with these four typing schemes, 60 strains were confirmed as members of the four recurrent lineages regardless of the method used (N = 32, 12, 7, and 9, respectively). Our results indicate that, regardless of the typing scheme used, epidemic or endemic signals were detected as reflected by lineage B (ST2254-gyrA9-porA1) in 2014 or lineage A (ST19-gyrA8-porA7), respectively. These findings support the clonal expansion of stable genomes in Campylobacter population exhibiting a multi-host profile and accounting for the majority of clinical strains isolated over a decade. Such recurring genotypes suggest persistence in reservoirs, sources or environment, emphasizing the need to investigate their survival strategy in greater depth.

Metagenomics-based high-throughput sequencing (HTS) enables comprehensive detection of all species comprised in a sample with a single assay and is becoming a standard method for outbreak investigation. However, unlike real-time PCR or serological assays, HTS datasets generated for pathogen detection do not easily provide yes/no answers. Rather, results of the taxonomic read assignment need to be assessed by trained personnel to gain information thereof. Proficiency tests are important instruments of validation, harmonization, and standardization. Within the European Union funded project COMPARE [COllaborative Management Platform for detection and Analyses of (Re-) emerging and foodborne outbreaks in Europe], we conducted a proficiency test to scrutinize the ability to assess diagnostic metagenomics data. An artificial dataset resembling shotgun sequencing of RNA from a sample of contaminated trout was provided to 12 participants with the request to provide a table with per-read taxonomic assignments at species level and a report with a summary and assessment of their findings, considering different categories like pathogen, background, or contaminations. Analysis of the read assignment tables showed that the software used reliably classified the reads taxonomically overall. However, usage of incomplete reference databases or inappropriate data pre-processing caused difficulties. From the combination of the participants’ reports with their read assignments, we conclude that, although most species were detected, a number of important taxa were not or not correctly categorized. This implies that knowledge of and awareness for potentially dangerous species and contaminations need to be improved, hence, capacity building for the interpretation of diagnostic metagenomics datasets is necessary.

Introduction Human papillomavirus (HPV) is the most common sexually transmitted infection (STI) worldwide. Despite recommendations for HPV vaccination of young women from health authorities, parental concerns were raised whether vaccination could induce unsafe sexual behaviour in young women. Therefore, the primary aim of this study was to investigate if HPV vaccination in healthcare seeking adult women in Luxembourg was associated with unsafe sexual behaviour. Methods Seven hundred twenty-nine women (mean age = 22.5; range 18–43 years) were recruited either at Luxembourg family planning centres or at private gynaecology practices. All participants completed a questionnaire on vaccination status and sexual behaviour. Poisson and logistic regressions were used to study the association between sexual behaviour and vaccination status (N = 538). Both models were restricted to women younger than 26 years, since the first cohort being vaccinated would be 25 years old at the time of sampling. Assortativity of sexual mixing by age was also assessed for further transmission modelling for women

We conducted an internet survey using Survey Monkey over six weeks to evaluate the impact of the government interventions on social contact patterns in Luxembourg. Participants were recruited via the science.lu website on March 25, April 2, April 16, May 1 during lockdown, and June 12 and June 25 after the lockdown to provide an estimate of their number of contacts within the previous 24 hours. During the lockdown, a total of 5,644 survey participants with a mean age of 44.2 years reported 18,118 contacts (mean = 3.2, IQR 1-4). The average number of contacts per day increased by 24% from 2.9 to 3.6 over the lockdown period. The average number of contacts decreased with age: 4.2 (IQR 2-5) for participants below 25 years and 1.7 (IQR 1-2) for participants above 64 years. Residents of Portuguese nationality reported a higher number of contacts (mean = 4.3, IQR 2-5) than Luxembourgish (mean = 3.5, IQR 2-4) or other foreign residents, respectively. After lockdown, 1,119 participants reported 7,974 contacts with 7.1 (IQR 3-9) contacts per day on average, of which 61.7% (4,917/7,974) occurred without a facemask (mean = 4.9, IQR 2-6). While the number of social contacts was substantially lower during the lockdown by more than 80% compared to the pre-pandemic period, we observed a more recent 121% increase during the post lockdown period showing an increased potential for COVID-19 spread. Monitoring social contacts is an important indicator to estimate the possible impact of government interventions on social contacts and the COVID-19 spread in the coming months.

In recent years, next generation sequencing (NGS) technology has been widely used for the discovery of novel human papillomavirus (HPV) genotypes, variant characterization and genotyping. Here, we compared the analytical performance of NGS with a commercial PCR-based assay (Anyplex II HPV28) in cervical samples of 744 women. Overall, HPV positivity was 50.2% by the Anyplex and 45.5% by the NGS. With the NGS, we detected 25 genotypes covered by Anyplex and 41 additional genotypes. Agreement between the two methods for HPV positivity was 80.8% (kappa = 0.616) and 84.8% (kappa = 0.652) for 28 HPV genotypes and 14 high-risk genotypes, respectively. We recovered and characterized 243 complete HPV genomes from 153 samples spanning 40 different genotypes. According to phylogenetic analysis and pairwise distance, we identified novel lineages and sublineages of four high-risk and 16 low-risk genotypes. In total, 17 novel lineages and 14 novel sublineages were proposed, including novel lineages of HPV45, HPV52, HPV66 and a novel sublineage of HPV59. Our study provides important genomic insights on HPV types and lineages, where few complete genomes were publicly available.

An inter-laboratory proficiency test was organized to assess the ability of participants to perform shotgun metagenomic sequencing of cold smoked salmon, experimentally spiked with a mock community composed of six bacteria, one parasite, one yeast, one DNA, and two RNA viruses. Each participant applied its in-house wet-lab workflow(s) to obtain the metagenomic dataset(s), which were then collected and analyzed using MG-RAST. A total of 27 datasets were analyzed. Sample pre-processing, DNA extraction protocol, library preparation kit, and sequencing platform, influenced the abundance of specific microorganisms of the mock community. Our results highlight that despite differences in wet-lab protocols, the reads corresponding to the mock community members spiked in the cold smoked salmon, were both detected and quantified in terms of relative abundance, in the metagenomic datasets, proving the suitability of shotgun metagenomic sequencing as a genomic tool to detect microorganisms belonging to different domains in the same food matrix. The implementation of standardized wet-lab protocols would highly facilitate the comparability of shotgun metagenomic sequencing dataset across laboratories and sectors. Moreover, there is a need for clearly defining a sequencing reads threshold, to consider pathogens as detected or undetected in a food sample.

Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) has become an essential tool for public health surveillance and molecular epidemiology of infectious diseases and antimicrobial drug resistance. It provides precise geographical delineation of spread and enables incidence monitoring of pathogens at genotype level. Coupled with epidemiological and environmental investigations, it delivers ultimate resolution for tracing sources of epidemic infections. To ascertain the level of implementation of WGS-based typing for national public health surveillance and investigation of prioritized diseases in the European Union (EU)/European Economic Area (EEA), two surveys were conducted in 2015 and 2016. The surveys were designed to determine the national public health reference laboratories’ access to WGS and operational WGS-based typing capacity for national surveillance of selected foodborne pathogens, antimicrobial-resistant pathogens, and vaccine-preventable diseases identified as priorities for European genomic surveillance. Twenty-eight and twenty-nine out of the 30 EU/EEA countries participated in the survey in 2015 and 2016, respectively. National public health reference laboratories in 22 and 25 countries had access to WGS-based typing for public health applications in 2015 and 2016, respectively. Reported reasons for limited or no access were lack of funding, staff, and expertise. Illumina technology was the most frequently used followed by Ion Torrent technology. The access to bioinformatics expertise and competence for routine WGS data analysis was limited. By mid-2016, half of the EU/EEA countries were using WGS analysis either as first- or second-line typing method for surveillance of the pathogens and antibiotic resistance issues identified as EU priorities. The sampling frame as well as bioinformatics analysis varied by pathogen/resistance issue and country. Core genome multilocus allelic profiling, also called cgMLST, was the most frequently used annotation approach for typing bacterial genomes suggesting potential bioinformatics pipeline compatibility. Further capacity development for WGS-based typing is ongoing in many countries and upon consolidation and harmonization of methods should enable pan-EU data exchange for genomic surveillance in the medium-term subject to the development of suitable data management systems and appropriate agreements for data sharing.

Background: For public health purposes, it is important to see whether men and women in different age groups die of the same causes in South Africa. Objective: We explored sex- and age-specific patterns of causes of deaths in a rural demographic surveillance site in northern KwaZulu-Natal in South Africa over the period 2000–2011. Design: Deaths reported through the demographic surveillance were followed up by a verbal autopsy (VA) interview using a standardised questionnaire. Causes of death were assigned likelihoods using the publicly available tool InterVA-4. Cause-specific mortality fractions were determined by age and sex. Results: Over the study period, a total of 5,416 (47%) and 6,081 (53%) deaths were recorded in men and women, respectively. Major causes of death proportionally affecting more women than men were (all p

Background: Women continue to die in unacceptably large numbers around the world as a result of pregnancy, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. Part of the problem is a lack of accurate, population-based information characterising the issues and informing solutions. Population surveillance sites, such as those operated within the INDEPTH Network, have the potential to contribute to bridging the information gaps. Objective: To describe patterns of pregnancy-related mortality at INDEPTH Network Health and Demographic Surveillance System sites in sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia in terms of maternal mortality ratio (MMR) and cause-specific mortality rates. Design: Data on individual deaths among women of reproductive age (WRA) (15–49) resident in INDEPTH sites were collated into a standardised database using the INDEPTH 2013 population standard, the WHO 2012 verbal autopsy (VA) standard, and the InterVA model for assigning cause of death. Results: These analyses are based on reports from 14 INDEPTH sites, covering 14,198 deaths among WRA over 2,595,605 person-years observed. MMRs varied between 128 and 461 per 100,000 live births, while maternal mortality rates ranged from 0.11 to 0.74 per 1,000 person-years. Detailed rates per cause are tabulated, including analyses of direct maternal, indirect maternal, and incidental pregnancy-related deaths across the 14 sites. Conclusions: As expected, these findings confirmed unacceptably high continuing levels of maternal mortality. However, they also demonstrate the effectiveness of INDEPTH sites and of the VA methods applied to arrive at measurements of maternal mortality that are essential for planning effective solutions and monitoring programmatic impacts.

Background: Mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is a major global issue, as other categories of mortality have diminished and life expectancy has increased. The World Health Organization's Member States have called for a 25% reduction in premature NCD mortality by 2025, which can only be achieved by substantial reductions in risk factors and improvements in the management of chronic conditions. A high burden of NCD mortality among much older people, who have survived other hazards, is inevitable. The INDEPTH Network collects detailed individual data within defined Health and Demographic Surveillance sites. By registering deaths and carrying out verbal autopsies to determine cause of death across many such sites, using standardised methods, the Network seeks to generate population-based mortality statistics that are not otherwise available. Objective: To describe patterns of adult NCD mortality from INDEPTH Network sites across Africa and Asia, according to the WHO 2012 verbal autopsy (VA) cause categories, with separate consideration of premature (15–64 years) and older (65+ years) NCD mortality. Design: All adult deaths at INDEPTH sites are routinely registered and followed up with VA interviews. For this study, VA archives were transformed into the WHO 2012 VA standard format and processed using the InterVA-4 model to assign cause of death. Routine surveillance data also provide person-time denominators for mortality rates. Results: A total of 80,726 adult (over 15 years) deaths were documented over 7,423,497 person-years of observation. NCDs were attributed as the cause for 35.6% of these deaths. Slightly less than half of adult NCD deaths occurred in the 15–64 age group. Detailed results are presented by age and sex for leading causes of NCD mortality. Per-site rates of NCD mortality were significantly correlated with rates of HIV/AIDS-related mortality. Conclusions: These findings present important evidence on the distribution of NCD mortality across a wide range of African and Asian settings. This comes against a background of global concern about the burden of NCD mortality, especially among adults aged under 70, and provides an important baseline for future work.

Background: Malaria continues to be a major cause of infectious disease mortality in tropical regions. However, deaths from malaria are most often not individually documented, and as a result overall understanding of malaria epidemiology is inadequate. INDEPTH Network members maintain population surveillance in Health and Demographic Surveillance System sites across Africa and Asia, in which individual deaths are followed up with verbal autopsies. Objective: To present patterns of malaria mortality determined by verbal autopsy from INDEPTH sites across Africa and Asia, comparing these findings with other relevant information on malaria in the same regions. Design: From a database covering 111,910 deaths over 12,204,043 person-years in 22 sites, in which verbal autopsy data were handled according to the WHO 2012 standard and processed using the InterVA-4 model, over 6,000 deaths were attributed to malaria. The overall period covered was 1992–2012, but two-thirds of the observations related to 2006–2012. These deaths were analysed by site, time period, age group and sex to investigate epidemiological differences in malaria mortality. Results: Rates of malaria mortality varied by 1:10,000 across the sites, with generally low rates in Asia (one site recording no malaria deaths over 0.5 million person-years) and some of the highest rates in West Africa (Nouna, Burkina Faso: 2.47 per 1,000 person-years). Childhood malaria mortality rates were strongly correlated with Malaria Atlas Project estimates of Plasmodium falciparum parasite rates for the same locations. Adult malaria mortality rates, while lower than corresponding childhood rates, were strongly correlated with childhood rates at the site level. Conclusions: The wide variations observed in malaria mortality, which were nevertheless consistent with various other estimates, suggest that population-based registration of deaths using verbal autopsy is a useful approach to understanding the details of malaria epidemiology.

Background: As the HIV/AIDS pandemic has evolved over recent decades, Africa has been the most affected region, even though a large proportion of HIV/AIDS deaths have not been documented at the individual level. Systematic application of verbal autopsy (VA) methods in defined populations provides an opportunity to assess the mortality burden of the pandemic from individual data. Objective: To present standardised comparisons of HIV/AIDS-related mortality at sites across Africa and Asia, including closely related causes of death such as pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) and pneumonia. Design: Deaths related to HIV/AIDS were extracted from individual demographic and VA data from 22 INDEPTH sites across Africa and Asia. VA data were standardised to WHO 2012 standard causes of death assigned using the InterVA-4 model. Between-site comparisons of mortality rates were standardised using the INDEPTH 2013 standard population. Results: The dataset covered a total of 10,773 deaths attributed to HIV/AIDS, observed over 12,204,043 person-years. HIV/AIDS-related mortality fractions and mortality rates varied widely across Africa and Asia, with highest burdens in eastern and southern Africa, and lowest burdens in Asia. There was evidence of rapidly declining rates at the sites with the heaviest burdens. HIV/AIDS mortality was also strongly related to PTB mortality. On a country basis, there were strong similarities between HIV/AIDS mortality rates at INDEPTH sites and those derived from modelled estimates. Conclusions: Measuring HIV/AIDS-related mortality continues to be a challenging issue, all the more so as anti-retroviral treatment programmes alleviate mortality risks. The congruence between these results and other estimates adds plausibility to both approaches. These data, covering some of the highest mortality observed during the pandemic, will be an important baseline for understanding the future decline of HIV/AIDS.

Background: Childhood mortality, particularly in the first 5 years of life, is a major global concern and the target of Millennium Development Goal 4. Although the majority of childhood deaths occur in Africa and Asia, these are also the regions where such deaths are least likely to be registered. The INDEPTH Network works to alleviate this problem by collating detailed individual data from defined Health and Demographic Surveillance sites. By registering deaths and carrying out verbal autopsies to determine cause of death across many such sites, using standardised methods, the Network seeks to generate population-based mortality statistics that are not otherwise available. Objective: To present a description of cause-specific mortality rates and fractions over the first 15 years of life as documented by INDEPTH Network sites in sub-Saharan Africa and south-east Asia. Design: All childhood deaths at INDEPTH sites are routinely registered and followed up with verbal autopsy (VA) interviews. For this study, VA archives were transformed into the WHO 2012 VA standard format and processed using the InterVA-4 model to assign cause of death. Routine surveillance data also provided person-time denominators for mortality rates. Cause-specific mortality rates and cause-specific mortality fractions are presented according to WHO 2012 VA cause groups for neonatal, infant, 1–4 year and 5–14 year age groups. Results: A total of 28,751 childhood deaths were documented during 4,387,824 person-years over 18 sites. Infant mortality ranged from 11 to 78 per 1,000 live births, with under-5 mortality from 15 to 152 per 1,000 live births. Sites in Vietnam and Kenya accounted for the lowest and highest mortality rates reported. Conclusions: Many children continue to die from relatively preventable causes, particularly in areas with high rates of malaria and HIV/AIDS. Neonatal mortality persists at relatively high, and perhaps sometimes under-documented, rates. External causes of death are a significant childhood problem in some settings.

Background: Mortality from external causes, of all kinds, is an important component of overall mortality on a global basis. However, these deaths, like others in Africa and Asia, are often not counted or documented on an individual basis. Overviews of the state of external cause mortality in Africa and Asia are therefore based on uncertain information. The INDEPTH Network maintains longitudinal surveillance, including cause of death, at population sites across Africa and Asia, which offers important opportunities to document external cause mortality at the population level across a range of settings. Objective: To describe patterns of mortality from external causes at INDEPTH Network sites across Africa and Asia, according to the WHO 2012 verbal autopsy (VA) cause categories. Design: All deaths at INDEPTH sites are routinely registered and followed up with VA interviews. For this study, VA archives were transformed into the WHO 2012 VA standard format and processed using the InterVA-4 model to assign cause of death. Routine surveillance data also provide person-time denominators for mortality rates. Results: A total of 5,884 deaths due to external causes were documented over 11,828,253 person-years. Approximately one-quarter of those deaths were to children younger than 15 years. Causes of death were dominated by childhood drowning in Bangladesh, and by transport-related deaths and intentional injuries elsewhere. Detailed mortality rates are presented by cause of death, age group, and sex. Conclusions: The patterns of external cause mortality found here generally corresponded with expectations and other sources of information, but they fill some important gaps in population-based mortality data. They provide an important source of information to inform potentially preventive intervention designs.

Population-based HIV surveillance is crucial to inform understanding of the HIV pandemic and evaluate HIV interventions, but little is known about longitudinal participation patterns in such settings. We investigated the dynamics of longitudinal participation patterns in a high HIV prevalence surveillance setting in rural South Africa between 2003 and 2012, taking into account demographic dynamics. At any given survey round, 22,708 to 30,495 persons were eligible. Although the yearly participation rates were relatively modest (26% to 46%), cumulative rates increased substantially with multiple recruitment opportunities: 68% of eligible persons participated at least once, 48% at least twice and 31% at least three times after five survey rounds. We identified two types of study fatigue: at the individual level, contact and consent rates decreased with multiple recruitment opportunities and, at the population level, these rates also decreased over calendar time, independently of multiple recruitment opportunities. Using sequence analysis and hierarchical clustering, we identified three broad individual participation profiles: consenters (20%), switchers (43%) and refusers (37%). Men were over represented among refusers, women among consenters, and temporary non-residents among switchers. The specific subgroup of persons who were systemically not contacted or refusers constitutes a challenge for population-based surveillance and interventions.

Little is known about the variability of CD4 counts in the general population of sub-Saharan Africa countries affected by the HIV epidemic. We investigated factors associated with CD4 counts in a rural area in South Africa with high HIV prevalence and high antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage.CD4 counts, health status, body mass index (BMI), demographic characteristics and HIV status were assessed in 4990 adult resident participants of a demographic surveillance in rural KwaZulu-Natal in South Africa; antiretroviral treatment duration was obtained from a linked clinical database. Multivariable regression analysis, overall and stratified by HIV status, was performed with CD4 count levels as outcome.Median CD4 counts were significantly higher in women than in men overall (714 vs. 630 cells/µl, p

BackgroundMathematical modelling of infectious diseases transmitted by the respiratory or close-contact route (e.g., pandemic influenza) is increasingly being used to determine the impact of possible interventions. Although mixing patterns are known to be crucial determinants for model outcome, researchers often rely on a priori contact assumptions with little or no empirical basis. We conducted a population-based prospective survey of mixing patterns in eight European countries using a common paper-diary methodology.Methods and findings7,290 participants recorded characteristics of 97,904 contacts with different individuals during one day, including age, sex, location, duration, frequency, and occurrence of physical contact. We found that mixing patterns and contact characteristics were remarkably similar across different European countries. Contact patterns were highly assortative with age: schoolchildren and young adults in particular tended to mix with people of the same age. Contacts lasting at least one hour or occurring on a daily basis mostly involved physical contact, while short duration and infrequent contacts tended to be nonphysical. Contacts at home, school, or leisure were more likely to be physical than contacts at the workplace or while travelling. Preliminary modelling indicates that 5- to 19-year-olds are expected to suffer the highest incidence during the initial epidemic phase of an emerging infection transmitted through social contacts measured here when the population is completely susceptible.ConclusionsTo our knowledge, our study provides the first large-scale quantitative approach to contact patterns relevant for infections transmitted by the respiratory or close-contact route, and the results should lead to improved parameterisation of mathematical models used to design control strategies.

Social contact patterns are a critical explanatory factor of the spread of close-contact infectious agents. Both indirect (via observed epidemiologic data) and direct (via diaries that record at-risk events) approaches to the measurement of contacts by age have been proposed in the literature. In this paper, the authors discuss the possibilities offered by time-use surveys to measure contact patterns and to explain observed seroprevalence profiles. The authors first develop a methodology to estimate time-of-exposure matrices, and then they apply it to time-use data for the United States (1987–2003). Finally, the authors estimate age-specific transmission parameters for varicella, commonly known as “chickenpox,” from age-specific time-of-exposure and seroprevalence data (United States, 1988–1994). The estimated time-of-exposure matrix reveals a strong element of assortativeness by age. In addition, there are peaks of exposure between people who were born one generation apart (i.e., parents and their children). Models based on the estimated age-specific transmission parameters fit the observed patterns of infection of endemically circulating varicella in a satisfactory way. The availability of time-use data for a large number of countries and their potential to supplement contact surveys make the methods developed extremely valuable and suitable for implementation in several different contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

: Background Although measles incidence has been reduced to low levels in many countries, the potential exists for HIV-1 infection to enhance measles virus (MV) transmission and hinder measles control and elimination efforts. : Methods HIV-1 infection was incorporated into an age-structured, deterministic compartmental model of MV transmission. Parameter estimates were obtained from published studies. The model was then adapted to simulate the introduction of antiretroviral therapy (ART). : Results The model suggests that prior to the introduction of ART, HIV-1 infection has little impact on the transmission dynamics of MV. High mortality rates in HIV-1-infected children without access to ART counteract the higher rates of vaccine failure, shorter duration of maternal antibody protection and longer duration of infectiousness in HIV-1-infected children, as many of these children die before they are able to contribute to MV transmission. The introduction of ART into the model resulted in an increase in measles prevalence. : Conclusions High overall mortality among HIV-1-infected children without access to ART limits the impact of the HIV-1 epidemic on MV transmission and may help to explain the initial success of measles control strategies in Africa. The scaling-up of ART should improve childrens survival but could lead to an increase in measles prevalence in the absence of sustained measles control efforts. Further study of the duration of immunity in HIV-1-infected children receiving ART and their response to revaccination is needed to determine whether a second dose of measles vaccine will protect these children and further reduce MV transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]