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Pelagic Sargassum is a buoyant macroalgae that forms rafts at the ocean surface and serves as a biologically rich habitat for hundreds of diverse marine species. Since 2011, massive blooms of Sarga...

The Lancet Countdown is an international collaboration, established to provide an independent, global monitoring system dedicated to tracking the emerging health profile of the changing climate. The 2020 report presents 43 indicators across five sections: climate change impacts, exposures, and vulnerability; adaptation, planning, and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. This report represents the findings and consensus of the 35 leading academic institutions and UN agencies that make up the Lancet Countdown, and draws on the expertise of climate scientists, geographers, and engineers; of energy, food, and transport experts; and of economists, social and political scientists, data scientists, public health professionals, and doctors.

State of the climate in 2019

A high-quality dataset of surface water fugacity of CO2 (fCO2w)1, consisting of over a million observations, and derived products are presented for the northern Caribbean Sea, covering the time span from 2002 through 2018. Prior to installation of automated pCO2 systems on cruise ships of Royal Caribbean International and subsidiaries, very limited surface water carbon data were available in this region. With this observational program, the northern Caribbean Sea has now become one of the best-sampled regions for pCO2 of the world ocean. The dataset and derived quantities are binned and averaged on a 1∘ monthly grid and are available at http://accession.nodc.noaa.gov/0207749 (last access: 30 June 2020) (https://doi.org/10.25921/2swk-9w56; Wanninkhof et al., 2019a). The derived quantities include total alkalinity (TA), acidity (pH), aragonite saturation state (ΩAr) and air–sea CO2 flux and cover the region from 15 to 28∘ N and 88 to 62∘ W. The gridded data and products are used for determination of status and trends of ocean acidification, for quantifying air–sea CO2 fluxes and for ground-truthing models. Methodologies to derive the TA, pH and ΩAr and to calculate the fluxes from fCO2w temperature and salinity are described.

This book chapter discusses all the information collected has been grouped together into eight categories: (i) aligning with and supporting UN Sustainable Development Goals; (ii) focusing on public health needs and key theme areas for further research; (iii) accessing and developing Earth Observation (EO) and geospatial evidence-based data and products leveraging public health capacities; (iv) developing a sustainable community of practice; (v) developing knowledge and know-how; (vi) developing solutions: methods, tools, and systems; (vii) implementing technical infrastructures and technologies; and (viii) participating in EO satellite mission development for monitoring disease risks. One such advancement attributable to Landsat data is the ability to monitor changing patterns in forest cover loss and human encroachment on previously wild areas that allows for better prediction of zoonotic disease emergence. For example, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors onboard the US Aqua and Terra satellites offer atmosphere, land, cryosphere, and ocean products that are used in several user communities. MODIS indicator data sets have been so successful that they do not require additional remote sensing analysis; they can be used directly in predictive models. Some EO satellite systems offer ARD (i.e. pre-processed images) and related information products derived from the raw data stream generated by the satellite instruments and the use of algorithms.

Background: Infections caused by non-cholera Vibrio species have undergone a global expansion over the past few decades reaching new areas of the world that were previously considered adverse for these organisms. The geographical extent of the expansion has not been uniform, and some areas have shown a rapid increase in infections. Methods: We applied a new generation of models combining climate, population, and socioeconomic projections to map future scenarios of distribution and season suitability for pathogenic Vibrio. We used the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 framework. Three datasets were used: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's CM4.0 sea surface temperature and sea surface salinity; the coastline length dataset from the World Resources Institute; and Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project 2b annual global population data. Future projections were used up to the year 2100 and historical simulations from 1850 to 2014. We also project human population at risk under different shared socioeconomic pathways worldwide. Findings: Projections showed that coastal areas suitable for Vibrio could cover 38 000 km of new coastal areas by 2100 under the most unfavourable scenario with an expansion rate of season suitability in these regions of around 1 month every 30 years. Population at risk in suitable regions almost doubled from 1980 to 2020 (from 610 million to 1100 million under the scenario of medium challenges to mitigation and adaptation, shared socioeconomic pathway 2-4.5), although the increment will be more moderate in the future and stabilises after 2050 at 1300 million. Finally, we provide the first global estimate for Vibrio infections, with values around half a million of cases worldwide in 2020. Interpretation: Our projections anticipated an expansion of both the temporal and spatial disease burden for Vibrio infections, in particular at high latitudes of the northern hemisphere. However, the largest extent occurred from 1980 to 2020 and a more moderate increase is expected for the future. The most positive outcome is that the projections showed that Vibrio morbidity will remain relatively stable over the coming decades. Funding: NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory and NOAA OceanWatch, and by the University of Miami's Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies SI

Assessing the current state of and predicting change in the ocean’s biological and ecosystem resources requires observations and research to safeguard these valuable public assets. The Marine Biodiversity Observation Network (MBON) partnered with the Global Ocean Observing System Biology and Ecosystems Panel and the Ocean Biodiversity Information System to address these needs through collaboration, data standardization, and data sharing. Here, we describe the generalized MBON data processing flow, which includes several steps to ensure that data are findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable. By following this flow, data collected and managed by MBON have contributed to our understanding of the Global Ocean Observing System Essential Ocean Variables and demonstrated the value of web-based, interactive tools to explore and better understand environmental change. Although the MBON’s generalized data processing flow is already in practice, work remains in building ontologies for biological concepts, improving processing scripts for data standardization, and speeding up the data collection-to-sharing timeframe.

Coastal ecosystems are rapidly changing due to human-caused global warming, rising sea level, changing circulation patterns, sea ice loss, and acidification that in turn alter the productivity and composition of marine biological communities. In addition, regional pressures associated with growing human populations and economies result in changes in infrastructure, land use, and other development; greater extraction of fisheries and other natural resources; alteration of benthic seascapes; increased pollution; and eutrophication. Understanding biodiversity is fundamental to assessing and managing human activities that sustain ecosystem health and services and mitigate humankind’s indiscretions. Remote-sensing observations provide rapid and synoptic data for assessing biophysical interactions at multiple spatial and temporal scales and thus are useful for monitoring biodiversity in critical coastal zones. However, many challenges remain because of complex bio-optical signals, poor signal retrieval, and suboptimal algorithms. Here, we highlight four approaches in remote sensing that complement the Marine Biodiversity Observation Network (MBON). MBON observations help quantify plankton functional types, foundation species, and unique species habitat relationships, as well as inform species distribution models. In concert with in situ observations across multiple platforms, these efforts contribute to monitoring biodiversity changes in complex coastal regions by providing oceanographic context, contributing to algorithm and indicator development, and creating linkages between long-term ecological studies, the next generations of satellite sensors, and marine ecosystem management.

The Lancet Countdown is an international collaboration that independently monitors the health consequences of a changing climate. Publishing updated, new, and improved indicators each year, the Lancet Countdown represents the consensus of leading researchers from 43 academic institutions and UN agencies. The 44 indicators of this report expose an unabated rise in the health impacts of climate change and the current health consequences of the delayed and inconsistent response of countries around the globe—providing a clear imperative for accelerated action that puts the health of people and planet above all else.\ud \ud The 2021 report coincides with the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26), at which countries are facing pressure to realise the ambition of the Paris Agreement to keep the global average temperature rise to 1·5°C and to mobilise the financial resources required for all countries to have an effective climate response. These negotiations unfold in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic—a global health crisis that has claimed millions of lives, affected livelihoods and communities around the globe, and exposed deep fissures and inequities in the world's capacity to cope with, and respond to, health emergencies. Yet, in its response to both crises, the world is faced with an unprecedented opportunity to ensure a healthy future for all.

Drifters designed to mimic floating marine debris and small patches of pelagic \emph{Sargassum} were satellite tracked in four regions across the North Atlantic. Though subjected to the same initial conditions at each site, the tracks of different drifters quickly diverged after deployment. We explain the clustering of drifter types using a recent Maxey-Riley theory for surface ocean inertial particle dynamics applied on multidata-based mesoscale ocean currents and winds from reanalysis. Simulated trajectories of objects at the air-sea interface are significantly improved when represented as inertial (accounting for buoyancy and size), rather than as perfectly Lagrangian (fluid following) particles. Separation distances between simulated and observed trajectories were substantially smaller for debris-like drifters than for \emph{Sargassum}-like drifters, suggesting that additional consideration of its physical properties relative to fluid velocities may be useful. Our findings can be applied to model variability in movements and distribution of diverse objects floating at the ocean surface., Comment: Submitted to Geophy. Res. Lett

As microbiologists we live in exciting times. A variety of technical and conceptual developments, particularly in the last decade have revolutionized the field of microbiology, redrawing the landscape, and entirely redefining what is possible. Perhaps this paradigm shift is no more apparent than in the study of vibrios. The family Vibrionaceae are almost unique as a group of bacteria to study in microbiology: they are genomically, phylogenetically and functionally diverse yet a distinct group of environmental bacteria encompassing important human and animal pathogens as well as non-pathogenic species such as ecologically critical symbionts. Sensitive to physiochemical stimuli, they are among the fasting replicating bacteria studied, capable of responding almost immediately to favourable environmental conditions such as those afforded by climate warming. Characterized by an unusual double chromosome and frequently carrying numerous cryptic plasmids - their genomes are often pockmarked with insertion elements, transposons, prophages and integrases - paying testament to past genomic promiscuity. With a strong affinity for environmental niches in freshwater and marine systems, they are among the most numerous bacteria present in our oceans, coasts and freshwater environments. As such they offer something for almost anyone interested in microbiology and represent an excellent example of field of microbiology that has benefitted hugely by advances across a gamut of disciplines - not just microbiological - but encompassing genomics, genetics, oceanography, ecological, earth observations sciences and data visualization, among others. We will briefly outline some of the most exciting, innovative and translational scientific advances that are currently being applied to these ecologically, environmentally and clinically important bacteria.

A high-quality dataset of surface water partial pressure/fugacity of CO2 (pCO2w/fCO2w), comprised of over a million observations, and derived products are presented for the Caribbean Sea covering the timespan from 2002 through 2018. Prior to installation of automated pCO2 systems on cruise ships of the Royal Caribbean Cruise Lines and subsidiaries, very limited surface water carbon data were available in this region. With this observational program, the Northern Caribbean Sea has now become one of the best sampled regions for pCO2 of the world's ocean. The dataset, and derived quantities are provided on a 1-degree monthly grid at http://accession.nodc.noaa.gov/0207749, DOI: https://doi.org/10.25921/2swk-9w56 (Wanninkhof et al., 2019a). The derived quantities include total alkalinity (TA), acidity (pH), Aragonite saturation state (ΩAr) and air-sea CO2 flux, and cover the region from 15° N to 28° N and 88° W to 62° W. The data and products are used for determination of status and trends of ocean acidification, for quantifying air-sea CO2 fluxes, and for ground truthing models. Methodologies to derive the inorganic carbon system parameters and to calculate the fluxes from fCO2w are described.

The Lancet Countdown: tracking progress on health and climate change was established to provide an independent, global monitoring system dedicated to tracking the health dimensions of the impacts of, and the response to, climate change. The Lancet Countdown tracks 41 indicators across five domains: climate change impacts, exposures, and vulnerability; adaptation, planning, and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; finance and economics; and public and political engagement. This report is the product of a collaboration of 27 leading academic institutions, the UN, and intergovernmental agencies from every continent. The report draws on world-class expertise from climate scientists, ecologists, mathematicians, geographers, engineers, energy, food, livestock, and transport experts, economists, social and political scientists, public health professionals, and. doctors. The Lancet Countdown’s work builds on decades of research in this field, and was first proposed in the 2015 Lancet Commission on health and climate change,1 which documented the human impacts of climate change and provided ten global recommendations to respond to this public health emergency and secure the public health benefits available (panel 1).

There is a growing interest in the role of climate change in driving the spread of waterborne infectious diseases, such as those caused by bacterial pathogens. One particular group of pathogenic bacteria - vibrios - are a globally important cause of diseases in humans and aquatic animals. These Gram-negative bacteria, including the species Vibrio vulnificus, Vibrio parahaemolyticus and Vibrio cholerae, grow in warm, low-salinity waters, and their abundance in the natural environment mirrors ambient environmental temperatures. In a rapidly warming marine environment, there are greater numbers of human infections, and most notably outbreaks linked to extreme weather events such as heatwaves in temperate regions such as Northern Europe. Because the growth of pathogenic vibrios in the natural environment is largely dictated by temperature, we argue that this group of pathogens represents an important and tangible barometer of climate change in marine systems. We provide a number of specific examples of the impacts of climate change on this group of bacteria and their associated diseases, and discuss advanced strategies to improve our understanding of these emerging waterborne diseases through the integration of microbiological, genomic, epidemiological, climatic, and ocean sciences.

The Lancet Countdown is an international, multidisciplinary collaboration, dedicated to monitoring the evolving health profile of climate change, and providing an independent assessment of the delivery of commitments made by governments worldwide under the Paris Agreement.\ud The 2019 report presents an annual update of 41 indicators across five key domains: climate change impacts, exposures, and vulnerability; adaptation, planning, and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. The report represents the findings and consensus of 35 leading academic institutions and UN agencies from every continent. Each year, the methods and data that underpin the Lancet Countdown's indicators are further developed and improved, with updates described at each stage of this report. The collaboration draws on the world-class expertise of climate scientists; ecologists; mathematicians; engineers; energy, food, and transport experts; economists; social and political scientists; public health professionals; and doctors, to generate the quality and diversity of data required.\ud The science of climate change describes a range of possible futures, which are largely dependent on the degree of action or inaction in the face of a warming world. The policies implemented will have far-reaching effects in determining these eventualities, with the indicators tracked here monitoring both the present-day effects of climate change, as well as the worldwide response. Understanding these decisions as a choice between one of two pathways—one that continues with the business as usual response and one that redirects to a future that remains “well below 2°C”—helps to bring the importance of recognising the effects of climate change and the necessary response to the forefront.\ud Evidence provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the International Energy Agency, and the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration clarifies the degree and magnitude of climate change experienced today and contextualises these two pathways.

The Surface Ocean CO2 NETwork (SOCONET) and atmospheric Marine Boundary Layer (MBL) CO2 measurements from ships and buoys focus on the operational aspects of measurements of CO2 in both the ocean surface and atmospheric MBLs. The goal is to provide accurate pCO2 data to within 2 micro atmosphere (μatm) for surface ocean and 0.2 parts per million (ppm) for MBL measurements following rigorous best practices, calibration and intercomparison procedures. Platforms and data will be tracked in near real-time and final quality-controlled data will be provided to the community within a year. The network, involving partners worldwide, will aid in production of important products such as maps of monthly resolved surface ocean CO2 and air-sea CO2 flux measurements. These products and other derivatives using surface ocean and MBL CO2 data, such as surface ocean pH maps and MBL CO2 maps, will be of high value for policy assessments and socio-economic decisions regarding the role of the ocean in sequestering anthropogenic CO2 and how this uptake is impacting ocean health by ocean acidification. SOCONET has an open ocean emphasis but will work with regional (coastal) networks. It will liaise with intergovernmental science organizations such as Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW), and the joint committee for and ocean and marine meteorology (JCOMM). Here we describe the details of this emerging network and its proposed operations and practices RW, AS, LB, DP, JT, NB, TT, RF, KO’B, and KT were supported by the NOAA office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, including the Ocean Observations and Monitoring Division (OOMD), funding reference #100007298 and PMEL contribution #4893. AO and SL were supported by the Norwegian Research Council (ICOS-Norway 245927). MT acknowledges support from the United States National Science Foundation grant OCE-1840868 to the Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research (SCOR, United States). US was supported by the European AtlantOS project (Grant Agreement #633211), RINGO project (Grant Agreement #730944), the United Kingdom NERC SONATA project (Grant No. NE/P021417/1), and RAGNARoCC project (Grant No. NE/K002473/1). PP was supported by the NERC SONATA project. MH was partly supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (grant no. 01LK1224I; ICOS-D). BT was supported by the Australia’s Integrated Marine Observing System. NCAR was sponsored by the United States National Science Foundation SI

Sixteen years of surface water CO2 data from autonomous systems on cruise ships sailing in the Caribbean Sea and Western North Atlantic show marked changes on interannual timescales. The measured changes in fugacity (≈partial pressure) of CO2 in surface water, fCO2w, are based on over a million observations. Seasonally the patterns are similar to other oligotrophic subtropical regions with an amplitude of fCO2w of ≈40 μatm with low wintertime values, causing the area to be a sink, and high summertime values making it a source of CO2 to the atmosphere. On annual scales there was negligible increase of fCO2w from 2002 to 2010 and a rapid increase from 2010 to 2018. Correspondingly, the trend of air‐sea CO2 flux from 2002 to 2010 was strongly negative (increasing uptake or sink) at −0.05 ± 0.01 (mol m−2 year−1) year−1 and positive (decreasing uptake) at 0.02 ± 0.02 (mol m−2 year−1) year−1 from 2010‐2018. For the whole period from 2002 to 2018, the fCO2w lagged the atmospheric CO2 increase by 24 %, causing an increase in CO2 uptake. The average flux into the ocean for the 16 years is −0.20 ± 0.16 mol m−2 year−1 with the uncertainty reflecting the standard deviation in annual means. The change in multiannual trend in fCO2w is modulated by several factors, notably changes in sea surface temperature and ocean mixed layer depth that, in turn, affected the physical and biological processes controlling fCO2w DOC | NOAA | Climate Program Office (CPO). Grant Number: 100007298 Global Ocean Monitoring and Observations. Grant Number: 100007298 SI

Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 disappeared in March 2014. Potential sites of where the plane entered the water are considered within a vast region of the Indian Ocean. We present a methodology to ...

A mechanistic understanding of organismal movement provides context for existing biogeographic and ecological patterns and improves our ability to predict changing patterns in dynamic environments. Here, we examined the movement ecology of pelagic Sargassum in the northern Caribbean Sea, where major inundation events of this brown algae have become increasingly problematic to coastal communities. We used GPS-trackers affixed to Sargassum mats, standard oceanographic drifters, and “pseudo-Sargassum” drifters to acquire empirical data on the movement of Sargassum and ocean currents. We related these observed movements to ocean surface velocity fields from a global ocean circulation model and wind velocities derived from models and satellite observations. Specifically, we assessed whether adding a windage component to ocean surface velocities improved predictions generated by synthetic particles tracked within an ocean circulation model. We found that the inclusion of a windage factor of 1 to 3% reduced separation distances between synthetic particles and the tracks of Sargassum mats, pseudo-Sargassum drifters, and un-drogued oceanographic drifters. When similar analyses were conducted for oceanographic drifters with drogues centered at 15 m depth (which are designed to minimize the influence of winds and waves and thus served as a control for this technique), inclusion of a windage factor did not improve particle-tracking predictions. These findings indicate that adding a windage calculated from satellite-derived winds to the surface layer of an ocean circulation model produces particle-tracking results that are more relevant to Sargassum, likely by accounting for the buoyant nature of the algae and the influence of the direct forcing of wind (and waves, implicitly) on the part of the object extending above the surface. However, the estimates of an appropriate windage coefficient for Sargassum may differ depending on the wind and surface current products used as well as the particular oceanic region being studied. Future work to identify and resolve systematic biases in the representation of winds and currents will be an important step toward eventually forecasting Sargassum movement and coastal inundation events.

Since 2011, beach inundation of massive amounts of pelagic Sargassum algae has occurred around the Caribbean nations and islands. Previous studies have applied satellite ocean color to determine the origins of this phenomenon. These techniques, combined with complementary approaches, suggest that, rather than blooms originating in the Caribbean, they arrive from the Equatorial Atlantic. However, oceanographic context for these occurrences remains limited. Here, we present results from synthetic particle tracking experiments that characterize the interannual and seasonal dynamics of ocean currents and winds likely to influence the transport of Sargassum from the Equatorial Atlantic into the Caribbean Sea. Our findings suggest that Sargassum present in the western Equatorial Atlantic (west of longitude 50°W) has a high probability of entering the Caribbean Sea within a year’s time. Transport routes include the Guiana Current, North Brazil Current Rings, and the North Equatorial Current north of the North Brazil Current Retroflection. The amount of Sargassum following each route varies seasonally. This has important implications for the amount of time it takes Sargassum to reach the Caribbean Sea. By weighting particle transport predictions with Sargassum concentrations at release sites in the western Equatorial Atlantic, our simulations explain close to 90% of the annual variation in observed Sargassum abundance entering the Caribbean Sea. Additionally, results from our numerical experiments are in good agreement with observations of variability in the timing of Sargassum movement from the Equatorial Atlantic to the Caribbean, and observations of the spatial extent of Sargassum occurrence throughout the Caribbean. However, this work also highlights some areas of uncertainty that should be examined, in particular the effect of “windage” and other surface transport processes on the movement of Sargassum. Our results provide a useful launching point to predict Sargassum beaching events along the Caribbean islands well in advance of their occurrence and, more generally, to understand the movement ecology of a floating ecosystem that is essential habitat to numerous marine species NFP, GJG, LJG, EJ and JT acknowledge support from the NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory. JT was also supported by NOAA/OceanWatch. CH and MW acknowledge support from NASA (NNX14AL98G, NNX16AR74G, and NNX17AE57G) and the William and Elsie Knight Endowed Fellowship. Funding for the development of HYCOM has been provided by the National Ocean Partnership Program and the Office of Naval Research SI

Vibrio parahaemolyticus is the leading cause of seafood-related infections with illnesses undergoing a geographic expansion. In this process of expansion, the most fundamental change has been the transition from infections caused by local strains to the surge of pandemic clonal types. Pandemic clone sequence type 3 (ST3) was the only example of transcontinental spreading until 2012, when ST36 was detected outside the region where it is endemic in the U.S. Pacific Northwest causing infections along the U.S. northeast coast and Spain. Here, we used genome-wide analyses to reconstruct the evolutionary history of the V. parahaemolyticus ST36 clone over the course of its geographic expansion during the previous 25 years. The origin of this lineage was estimated to be in ~1985. By 1995, a new variant emerged in the region and quickly replaced the old clone, which has not been detected since 2000. The new Pacific Northwest (PNW) lineage was responsible for the first cases associated with this clone outside the Pacific Northwest region. After several introductions into the northeast coast, the new PNW clone differentiated into a highly dynamic group that continues to cause illness on the northeast coast of the United States. Surprisingly, the strains detected in Europe in 2012 diverged from this ancestral group around 2000 and have conserved genetic features present only in the old PNW lineage. Recombination was identified as the major driver of diversification, with some preliminary observations suggesting a trend toward a more specialized lifestyle, which may represent a critical element in the expansion of epidemics under scenarios of coastal warming. IMPORTANCE Vibrio parahaemolyticus and Vibrio cholerae represent the only two instances of pandemic expansions of human pathogens originating in the marine environment. However, while the current pandemic of V. cholerae emerged more than 50 years ago, the global expansion of V. parahaemolyticus is a recent phenomenon. These modern expansions provide an exceptional opportunity to study the evolutionary process of these pathogens at first hand and gain an understanding of the mechanisms shaping the epidemic dynamics of these diseases, in particular, the emergence, dispersal, and successful introduction in new regions facilitating global spreading of infections. In this study, we used genomic analysis to examine the evolutionary divergence that has occurred over the course of the most recent transcontinental expansion of a pathogenic Vibrio , the spreading of the V. parahaemolyticus sequence type 36 clone from the region where it is endemic on the Pacific coast of North America to the east coast of the United States and finally to the west coast of Europe.

Ocean flows are routinely inferred from low-resolution satellite altimetry measurements of sea surface height assuming a geostrophic balance. Recent nonlinear dynamical systems techniques have revealed that surface currents derived from altimetry can support mesoscale eddies with material boundaries that do not filament for many months, thereby representing effective transport mechanisms. However, the long-range Lagrangian coherence assessed for mesoscale eddy boundaries detected from altimetry is constrained by the impossibility of current altimeters to resolve ageostrophic submesoscale motions. These may act to prevent Lagrangian coherence from manifesting in the rigorous form described by the nonlinear dynamical systems theories. Here we use a combination of satellite ocean color and surface drifter trajectory data, rarely available simultaneously over an extended period of time, to provide observational evidence for the enduring Lagrangian coherence of a Loop Current ring detected from altimetry. We also seek indications of this behavior in the flow produced by a data-assimilative system which demonstrated ability to reproduce observed relative dispersion statistics down into the marginally submesoscale range. However, the simulated flow, total surface and subsurface or subsampled emulating altimetry, is not found to support the long-lasting Lagrangian coherence that characterizes the observed ring. This highlights the importance of the Lagrangian metrics produced by the nonlinear dynamical systems tools employed here in assessing model performance., In press in nature.com/Scientific Reports

Background: Some Vibrio spp. are pathogenic and ubiquitous in marine waters with low to moderate salinity and thrive with elevated sea surface temperature (SST). Objectives: Our objective was to monitor and project the suitability of marine conditions for Vibrio infections under climate change scenarios. Methods: The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) developed a platform (the ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer) to monitor the environmental suitability of coastal waters for Vibrio spp. using remotely sensed SST and salinity. A case-crossover study of Swedish cases was conducted to ascertain the relationship between SST and Vibrio infection through a conditional logistic regression. Climate change projections for Vibrio infections were developed for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Results: The ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer detected environmentally suitable areas for Vibrio spp. in the Baltic Sea in July 2014 that were accompanied by a spike in cases and one death in Sweden. The estimated exposure–response relationship for Vibrio infections at a threshold of 16°C revealed a relative risk (RR)=1.14 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.27; p=0.024) for a lag of 2 wk; the estimated risk increased successively beyond this SST threshold. Climate change projections for SST under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate a marked upward trend during the summer months and an increase in the relative risk of these infections in the coming decades. Conclusions: This platform can serve as an early warning system as the risk of further Vibrio infections increases in the 21st century due to climate change. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2198 J.T. was funded by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) OceanWatch and Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (NOAA/AOML). G.N. was partly funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit (NIHR HPRU) in Environmental Change and Health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine in partnership with Public Health England, and in collaboration with the University of Exeter, University College London and the Met Office, and partly by Public Health England SI

Circulation in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is dominated by mesoscale features that include the Loop Current (LC), Loop Current Rings (LCRs), and smaller frontal eddies. During May–June 2010, while oil was still flowing from the Macondo well following the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) platform explosion on April 20, 2010, drifter trajectories, satellite observations, and numerical simulations indicated a potential for direct connectivity between the northern Gulf and the Florida Straits via the LC system. This pathway could have potentially entrained particles, including northern GOM contaminants related to the oil spill, carrying them directly towards the coastal ecosystems of south Florida and northern Cuba. To assess this connectivity, and to evaluate the potential oil impacts on economically important GOM fisheries, an interdisciplinary shipboard survey was conducted in the eastern Gulf during July 2010. Analysis of the resulting hydrographic data confirmed that: (1) by July 2010 a large LCR had become separated from the main LC by a cyclonic eddy resulting in the loss of a direct transport mechanism from the northern GOM to the Florida Straits, leaving only indirect pathways available to potential contaminants; and (2) with the exception of four hydrographic stations occupied within 84 km of the wellhead, no evidence of oil was found during the survey on the surface or within the water column. These results corroborated analysis of satellite altimetry observations of the GOM surface circulation and verified official surface oil coverage forecasts where they intersected with the survey track. This cruise sampled the LC, LCR, and frontal eddies to a depth of 2000 m, with the results suggesting that any oil entrained by circulation features in prior months had either been weathered, consumed by bacteria, dispersed to undetectable levels, or was only present in unsurveyed areas. The assembled subsurface measurements represent one of only a few data sets collected across the dominant GOM mesoscale circulation features at a time when there was great concern about the potential long-range spreading of DWH related contaminants. Direct observations such as these are critical for the assessment of particle trajectory and circulation models utilized during the spill, and for the improvement of future numerical forecast products.

[1] Application of recent geometric tools for Lagrangian coherent structures (LCS) shows that material attraction in geostrophic velocities derived from altimetry data imposed an important constraint to the motion of drifters from the Grand Lagrangian Deployment (GLAD) in the Gulf of Mexico. This material attraction is largely transparent to traditional Eulerian analysis. Attracting LCS acted as approximate centerpieces for mesoscale patterns formed by the drifters. Persistently attracting LCS cores emerged 1 week before the development of a filament resembling the “tiger tail” of the Deepwater Horizon oil slick, thereby anticipating its formation. Our results suggest that the mesoscale circulation plays a significant role in shaping near-surface transport in the Gulf of Mexico.

The apparent emergence of new and devastating Vibrio diseases in Latin America during significant El Nino events is striking. New microbiological, genomic and bioinformatic tools are providing us with evidence that El Nino may represent a long-distance corridor for waterborne diseases into the Americas from Asia.

During summer 2014, a total of 89 Vibrio infections were reported in Sweden and Finland, substantially more yearly infections than previously have been reported in northern Europe. Infections were spread across most coastal counties of Sweden and Finland, but unusually, numerous infections were reported in subarctic regions; cases were reported as far north as 65°N, ≈100 miles (160 km) from the Arctic Circle. Most infections were caused by non-O1/O139 V. cholerae (70 cases, corresponding to 77% of the total, all strains were negative for the cholera toxin gene). An extreme heat wave in northern Scandinavia during summer 2014 led to unprecedented high sea surface temperatures, which appear to have been responsible for the emergence of Vibrio bacteria at these latitudes. The emergence of vibriosis in high-latitude regions requires improved diagnostic detection and clinical awareness of these emerging pathogens SI

We describe an outbreak of seafood-associated Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Galicia, Spain in on 18th of August 2012 affecting 100 of the 114 passengers travelling on a food banquet cruise boat. Epidemiological information from 65 people was available from follow-on interviews, of which 51 cases showed symptoms of illness. The food items identified through the questionnaires as the most probable source of the infections was shrimp. This product was unique in showing a statistically significant and the highest OR with a value of 7.59 (1.52–37.71). All the nine strains isolated from stool samples were identified as V. parahaemolyticus, seven were positive for both virulence markers tdh and trh, a single strain was positive for trh only and the remaining strain tested negative for both trh and tdh. This is the largest foodborne Vibrio outbreak reported in Europe linked to domestically processed seafood. Moreover, this is the first instance of strains possessing both tdh+ and trh+ being implicated in an outbreak in Europe and that a combination of strains represent several pathogenicity groups and belonging to different genetic variants were isolated from a single outbreak. Clinical isolates were associated with a novel genetic variant of V. parahaemolyticus never detected before in Europe. Further analyses demonstrated that the outbreak isolates showed indistinguishable genetic profiles with hyper-virulent strains from the Pacific Northwest, USA, suggesting a recent transcontinental spread of these strains.

There is increasing concern regarding the role of climate change in driving bacterial waterborne infectious diseases. Here we illustrate associations between environmental changes observed in the Baltic area and the recent emergence of Vibrio infections and also forecast future scenarios of the risk of infections in correspondence with predicted warming trends. Using multidecadal long-term sea surface temperature data sets we found that the Baltic Sea is warming at an unprecedented rate. Sea surface temperature trends (1982-2010) indicate a warming pattern of 0.063-0.078C yr -1 (6.3-7.8C per century; refs,), with recent peak temperatures unequalled in the history of instrumented measurements for this region. These warming patterns have coincided with the unexpected emergence of Vibrio infections in northern Europe, many clustered around the Baltic Sea area. The number and distribution of cases correspond closely with the temporal and spatial peaks in sea surface temperatures. This is among the first empirical evidence that anthropogenic climate change is driving the emergence of Vibrio disease in temperate regions through its impact on resident bacterial communities, implying that this process is reshaping the distribution of infectious diseases across global scales. © 2013 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

The dynamics of dissemination of the environmental human pathogen Vibrio parahaemolyticus are uncertain. The O3:K6 clone was restricted to Asia until its detection along the Peruvian coasts and in northern Chile in 1997 in phase with the arrival of El Nino waters. A subsequent emergence of O3:K6 strains was detected in austral Chile in 2004. The origin of these 1997 and 2004 population radiations has not yet been conclusively determined. Multiple loci VNTR analysis using seven polymorphic loci was carried out with a number of representative strains from Asia, Peru and Chile to determine their genetic characteristics and population structure. Asian and Chilean subpopulations were the most genetically distant groups with an intermediate subpopulation in Peru. Population structure inferred from a minimum-spanning tree and Bayesian analysis divided the populations into two genetically distinct groups, consistent with the epidemic dynamics of the O3:K6 clone in South America. One group comprised strains from the original Asiatic population and strains arriving in Peru and Chile in 1997. The second group included the remaining Peruvian Strains and Chilean strains obtained from Puerto Montt in 2004. The analysis of the arrival of the O3:K6 clone at the Pacific coasts of South America has provided novel insights linking the origin of the invasion in 1997 to Asian populations and describing the successful establishment of the O3:K6 populations, first in Peru and subsequently in the South of Chile owing to a possible radiation of Peruvian populations.

We examined the potential influence of climate anomalies in expanding the geographical and seasonal range of seafood-borne illnesses from Vibrio parahaemolyticus and Vibrio vulnificus. Archived climate data from areas of implicated seafood production were obtained from various sources, including in situ monitoring devices and satellite imagery. The geographical expansion of V. parahaemolyticus outbreaks into Peru and Alaska corresponded closely with climate anomalies such as El Nino, which brought large masses of abnormally warm water into these regions. Seasonal expansion of V. vulnificus illnesses associated with oysters harvested from the Gulf of Mexico in April and November correspond with warmer water temperatures (>20 °C) recorded during these months since 1998. This retrospective review indicates that climate anomalies have already greatly expanded the risk area and season for vibrio illnesses and suggest that these events can be forecasted. Certainly, when similar circumstances occur in the future, adjustments in industry practices and regulatory policy should be considered, especially for seafood that is consumed raw, such as bivalve mollusks.

Observations of the surface-water fugacity of carbon dioxide (fCO2sw) measured during 2005 in the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean (58-62°N, 10-40°W) were used together with in situ ocean data and remotely sensed data to develop algorithms to estimate fCO2sw. Based on multiple regression we found that sea-surface temperature (SST), mixed-layer depth (MLD), and chlorophyll a (chl a) contributed significantly to the fit. Two algorithms were developed for periods depending on the presence of chl a data. The correlation coefficient (r2) and the root-mean-square deviation (rms) for the best fit in the period when chl a was observed (20 March-15 October) were 0.720 and ±10.8 μatm, respectively. The best fit for the algorithm for the period when no chl a was present (16 October-19 March) resulted in a r2 of 0.774 and a rms of ±5.6 μatm. Based on these algorithms we estimated seasonal fields of fCO2sw and the air-sea CO2 flux. The estimated net annual CO2 sink was 0.0058 Gt C yr-1 or 0.6 mol C m-2 yr-1. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd.

Air–sea fluxes in the Caribbean Sea are presented based on measurements of partial pressure of CO2 in surface seawater, pCO2sw, from an automated system onboard the cruise ship Explorer of the Seas for 2002 through 2004. The pCO2sw values are used to develop algorithms of pCO2sw based on sea surface temperature (SST) and position. The algorithms are applied to assimilated SST data and remotely sensed winds on a 1° by 1° grid to estimate the fluxes on weekly timescales in the region. The positive relationship between pCO2sw and SST is lower than the isochemical trend suggesting counteracting effects from biological processes. The relationship varies systematically with location with a stronger dependence further south. Furthermore, the southern area shows significantly lower pCO2sw in the fall compared to the spring at the same SST, which is attributed to differences in salinity. The annual algorithms for the entire region show a slight trend between 2002 and 2004 suggesting an increase of pCO2sw over time. This is in accord with the increasing pCO2sw due the invasion of anthropogenic CO2. The annual fluxes of CO2 yield a net invasion of CO2 to the ocean that ranges from − 0.04 to − 1.2 mol m− 2 year− 1 over the 3 years. There is a seasonal reversal in the direction of the flux with CO2 entering into the ocean during the winter and an evasion during the summer. Year-to-year differences in flux are primarily caused by temperature anomalies in the late winter and spring period resulting in changes in invasion during these seasons. An analysis of pCO2sw before and after hurricane Frances (September 4–6, 2004), and wind records during the storm suggest a large local enhancement of the flux but minimal influence on annual fluxes in the region.

Satellite observations and their derived products played a key role during the Deepwater Horizon oil spill monitoring efforts in the Gulf of Mexico in April–July 2010. These observations were sometimes the only source of synoptic information available to monitor and analyse several critical parameters on a daily basis. These products also complemented in situ observations and provided data to assimilate into or validate model. The ocean surface dynamics in the Gulf of Mexico are dominated by strong seasonal cycles in surface temperature and mixing due to convective and storm energy, and by major currents that include the Loop Current and its associated rings. Shelf processes are also strongly influenced by seasonal river discharge, winds, and storms. Satellite observations were used to determine that the Loop Current exhibited a very northern excursion (to approximately 28\(^{\circ }\)N) during the month of May, placing the core of this current and of the ring that it later shed at approximately 150 km south of the oil spill site. Knowledge gained about the Gulf of Mexico since the 1980s using a wide range of satellite observations helped understand the timing and process of separation of an anticyclonic ring from the Loop Current during this time. The surface extent of the oil spill varied largely based upon several factors, such as the rate of oil flowing from the well, clean up and recovery efforts, and biological, chemical, and physical processes. Satellite observations from active and passive radars, as well as from visible and infrared sensors were used to determine the surface extent of the oil spill. Results indicate that the maximum and total cumulative areal extent were approximately 45 \(\times \) 10\(^3\) km\(^2\) and 130 \(\times \) 10\(^3\) km\(^2\), respectively. The largest increase of surface oil occurred between April 22 and May 22, at an average rate of 1.3 \(\times \) 10\(^3\) km\(^2\) per day. The largest decrease in the extent of surface oil started on June 26, at an average rate of 4.4 \(\times \) 10\(^3\) km\(^2\) per day. Surface oil areas larger than approximately 40 \(\times \) 10\(^3\) km\(^2\) occurred during several periods between late May and the end of June. The southernmost surface oil extent reached approximately 85\(^{\circ }\)W 27\(^{\circ }\)N during the beginning of June. Results obtained indicate that surface currents may have partly controlled the southern and eastern extent of the surface oil during May and June, while intense southeast winds associated with Hurricane Alex caused a reduction of the surface oil extent at the end of June and beginning of July, as oil was driven onshore and mixed underwater. Given the suite of factors determining the variability of the oil spill extent at ocean surface, work presented here shows the importance of data analyses to compare against assessments made to evaluate numerical models.

The lack of a firm relationship between wind speed (U 10) and gas transfer velocity (k )i sconsidered to be one of the factors that hinders accurate quantification of interannual variations of ocean‐atmosphere CO2 fluxes. In this paper the interannual variations of k of using four different k‐U 10 parametrizations are examined using wind speed data from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis project. The extent to which interannual variations are faithfully reproduced in the NCEP/NCAR data is also investigated. This is carried out through comparison with QuikSCAT data. Compared with 4y ro fQuikSCAT data, NCEP/NCAR data reproduce interannual k variations, although the absolute magnitude of k is underestimated. Interannual k variation shows great sensitivity to selection of k‐U 10 parametrization, and in the Westerlies it changes by a factor of three depending on k‐U 10 parametrization. Use of monthly mean winds speeds leads to overestimation of interannual k variations compared with k variations computed using 6-hourly wind speeds and the appropriate k‐U 10 parametrization. Even though the effect of changing k‐U 10 parametrization is large enough to be an issue that needs to be considered when computing interannual air‐sea CO2 flux variations through combining estimates of k with data for the air‐sea CO2 gradient, it is not sufficient to bridge the gap between such estimates and estimates based on analyses of atmospheric oxygen, CO2 and δ 13 C data. Finally it is shown that the ambiguity in the relationship between wind speed and k introduces an uncertainty in interannual flux variations comparable to a bias of

Empirical relationships between sea surface carbon dioxide fugacity (fCO2sw) and sea surface temperature (SST) were applied to datasets of remotely sensed SST to create fCO2sw fields in the Caribbean Sea. SST datasets from different sensors were used, as well as the SST fields created by optimum interpolation of bias corrected AVHRR data. Empirical relationships were derived using shipboard fCO2 sw data, in situ SST data, and SST data from the remote sensing platforms. The results show that the application of a relationship based on shipboard SST data, on fields of remotely sensed SST yields biased fCO 2sw values. This bias is reduced if the fCO 2sw-SST relationships are derived using the same SST data that are used to create the SST fields. The fCO2sw fields found to best reproduce observed fCO2sw are used in combination with wind speed data from QuikSCAT to create weekly maps of the sea-air CO2 flux in the Caribbean Sea in 2002. The region to the SW of Cuba was a source of CO2 to the atmosphere throughout 2002, and the region to the NE was a sink during winter and spring and a source during summer and fall. The net uptake of CO2 in the region was doubled when potential skin layer effects on fCO2sw were taken into account. © 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Nature Climate Change 3, 73–77 (2013); published online 22 July 2012; corrected after print 27 June 2016 In the version of this Letter originally published, an outdated version of Figure panel 3d was displayed in Fig. 3, and so the population density and risk data shown was incorrect. Figure panel 3d has been replaced in the online version of this Letter.

It is generally recognized that meeting society’s emerging environmental science and management needs will require the marine data community to provide simpler, more effective and more interoperable access to its data. There is broad agreement, as well, that data standards are the bedrock upon which interoperability will be built. The path that would bring the marine data community to agree upon and utilize such standards, however, is often elusive. In this paper we examine the trio of standards 1) netCDF files; 2) the Climate and Forecast (CF) metadata convention; and 3) the OPeNDAP data access protocol. These standards taken together have brought our community a high level of interoperability for "gridded" data such as model outputs, satellite products and climatological analyses, and they are gaining rapid acceptance for ocean observations. We will provide an overview of the scope of the contribution that has been made. We then step back from the information technology considerations to examine the community or “social” process by which the successes were achieved. We contrast the path by which the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has advanced the Global Telecommunications System (GTS) – netCDF/CF/OPeNDAP exemplifying a "bottom up" standards process whereas GTS is "top down". Both of these standards are tales of success at achieving specific purposes, yet each is hampered by technical limitations. These limitations sometimes lead to controversy over whether alternative technological directions should be pursued. Finally we draw general conclusions regarding the factors that affect the success of a standards development effort – the likelihood that an IT standard will meet its design goals and will achieve communitywide acceptance. We believe that a higher level of thoughtful awareness by the scientists, program managers and technology experts of the vital role of standards and the merits of alternative standards processes can help us as a community to reach our interoperability goals faster.