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1. Resilient pollination services depend on sufficient abundance of pollinating insects over time. Currently, however, most knowledge about the status and trends of pollinators is based on changes in pollinator species richness and distribution only. 2. Systematic, long‐term monitoring of pollinators is urgently needed to provide baseline information on their status, to identify the drivers of declines and to inform suitable response measures. 3. Power analysis was used to determine the number of sites required to detect a 30% change in pollinator populations over 10 years. We then evaluated the full economic costs of implementing four national monitoring schemes in the UK: (a) professional pollinator monitoring, (b) professional pollination service monitoring, (c) volunteer collected pan traps and (d) volunteer focal floral observations. These costs were compared to (a) the costs of implementing separate, expert‐designed research and monitoring networks and (b) the economic benefits of pollination services threatened by pollinator loss. 4. Estimated scheme costs ranged from £6,159/year for a 75‐site volunteer focal flower observation scheme to £2.7 M/year for an 800‐site professional pollination service monitoring network. The estimated research costs saved using the site network as research infrastructure range from £1.46–4.17 M/year. The economic value of UK crop yield lost following a 30% decline in pollinators was estimated at ~£188 M/year. 5. Synthesis and applications: We evaluated the full costs of running pollinator monitoring schemes against the economic benefits to research and society they provide. The annual costs of monitoring are <0.02% of the economic value of pollination services that would be lost after a 30% decline in pollination services. Furthermore, by providing high‐quality scientific data, monitoring schemes would save at least £1.5 on data collection per £1 spent. Our findings demonstrate that long‐term systematic monitoring can be a cost‐e

Nitrogen deposition (Ndep) is considered a significant threat to plant diversity in grassland ecosystems around the world. The evidence supporting this conclusion comes from both observational and experimental research, with “space-for-time” substitution surveys of pollutant gradients a significant portion of the former. However, estimates of regression coefficients for Ndep impacts on species richness, derived with a focus on causal inference, are hard to locate in the observational literature. Some influential observational studies have presented estimates from univariate models, overlooking the effects of omitted variable bias, and/or have used P-value-based stepwise variable selection (PSVS) to infer impacts, a strategy known to be poorly suited to the accurate estimation of regression coefficients. Broad-scale spatial autocorrelation has also generally been unaccounted for. We re-examine two UK observational datasets that have previously been used to investigate the relationship between Ndep and plant species richness in acid grasslands, a much-researched habitat in this context. One of these studies (Stevens et al., 2004, Science, 303: 1876–1879) estimated a large negative impact of Ndep on richness through the use of PSVS; the other reported smaller impacts (Maskell et al., 2010, Global Change Biology, 16: 671–679), but did not explicitly report regression coefficients or partial effects, making the actual size of the estimated Ndep impact difficult to assess. We reanalyse both datasets using a spatial Bayesian linear model estimated using integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA). Contrary to previous results, we found similar-sized estimates of the Ndep impact on plant richness between studies, both with and without bryophytes, albeit with some disagreement over the most likely direction of this effect. Our analyses suggest that some previous estimates of Ndep impacts on richness from space-for-time substitution studies are likely to have been over-est

Volunteer-based plant monitoring in the UK has focused mainly on distribution mapping; there has been less emphasis on the collection of data on plant communities and habitats. Abundance data provide different insights into ecological pattern and allow for more powerful inference when considering environmental change. Abundance monitoring for other groups of organisms is well-established in the UK, e.g. for birds and butterflies, and conservation agencies have long desired comparable schemes for plants. We describe a new citizen science scheme for the UK (the ‘National Plant Monitoring Scheme’; NPMS), with the primary aim of monitoring the abundance of plants at small scales. Scheme development emphasised volunteer flexibility through scheme co-creation and feedback, whilst retaining a rigorous approach to design. Sampling frameworks, target habitats and species, field methods and power are all described. We also evaluate several outcomes of the scheme design process, including: (i) landscape-context bias in the first two years of the scheme; (ii) the ability of different sets of indicator species to capture the main ecological gradients of UK vegetation; and, (iii) species richness bias in returns relative to a professional survey. Survey rates have been promising (over 60% of squares released have been surveyed), although upland squares are under-represented. Ecological gradients present in an ordination of an independent, unbiased, national survey were well-represented by NPMS indicator species, although further filtering to an entry-level set of easily identifiable species degraded signal in an ordination axis representing succession and disturbance. Comparison with another professional survey indicated that different biases might be present at different levels of participation within the scheme. Understanding the strengths and limitations of the NPMS will guide development, increase trust in outputs, and direct efforts for maintaining volunteer interest, as wel

The aim of this project is to meet the urgent need for further understanding of (1) the effectiveness of agri-environment scheme delivery on ecological and chemical water quality and (2) the monitoring programme required to enable its quantification.

Final summary report to the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), Scottish Government and Welsh Government: Project WC1101.

Interest in citizen science has been increasing rapidly, although the reviews available to date have not clearly outlined the links between the long-established practice of recording plant species’ distributions for local and national atlases, or other recording projects, and the gradual development of more structured monitoring schemes that also rely on volunteer effort. We provide a review of volunteer-based plant monitoring in Britain and Ireland, with a particular focus on the contributions of expert volunteers working with biological recording schemes and natural history societies; in particular, we highlight projects and practices that have improved the quality of data collected. Although the monitoring of plant distributions at larger scales has led to numerous insights into floristic change and its causes, these activities have also led to the recognition that knowledge of species’ abundances at finer-scales often provides a more powerful means of detecting and interpreting change. In the UK, this has led to the development of a new, abundance-based ‘National Plant Monitoring Scheme’. We outline this new structured scheme, and review some of the design considerations that have been made during its development. New monitoring projects require a clear justification, and the launch of a new scheme is also an opportune moment to review whether some basic assumptions about the collection of monitoring data can withstand scrutiny. A distinction is often made between monitoring that is focused on answering particular, focused questions, and that which is more generally seeking to detect changes; for example, in species’ distributions or abundances. Therefore, we also review the justification for such general ‘surveillance’ approaches to the monitoring of biodiversity, and place this in the context of volunteer-based initiatives. We conclude that data collected by biological recorders working within atlas or monitoring scheme frameworks will continue to produce data

BACKGROUND: Carbohydrate associated antigen (CA19-9) has been approved by the FDA as a biomarker for monitoring treatment effect in pancreatic cancer. However, the value of serum CA19-9 as a biomarker of response to chemotherapy in bile duct cancer is unclear. The aim of this study was to determine if a decline in CA19-9 (CA19-9 response) during chemotherapy is predictive of survival in patients with inoperable bile duct cancer.METHODS: Consecutive patients with inoperable bile duct cancer treated at a University Hospital were retrospectively included in an investigational cohort (n = 212). Three validation cohorts were established including patients 1) participating in phase I/II trials at a Danish Hospital (n = 71), 2) identified retrospectively in a Canadian cohort (n = 196) and 3) randomized in the ABC-02 trial (n = 410). Patients with a baseline CA19-9 and at least one CA19-9 value measured 10-12 weeks after the start of chemotherapy were included. Multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed.RESULTS: Patients meeting the criteria to be included were 54 in the investigational cohort and 34, 68 and 148 in the three validation sets, respectively. Multivariate analysis included radiological response, performance status, bilirubin, gender, site of cancer, extend of disease, CA19-9 at baseline and age. A hazard ratio (HR) of 0.60 (95%CI: 0.44-0.80, p = 0.0005) for death in CA19-9 responders was reached in the investigational cohort. The predictive value of CA 19-9 response was confirmed in all three validation cohorts.CONCLUSIONS: CA19-9 response is a robust predictor of survival in patients with inoperable bile duct cancer in four independent data sets.