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It is well established in genetic epidemiology that family history is an important indicator of familial aggregation of disease in a family. A strong genetic risk factor or an environmental risk factor with high familial correlation can result in a strong family history. In this paper, family history refers to the number of first-degree relatives affected with the disease. Cui and Hopper (Journal of Epidemiology and Biostatistics 2001; 6: 331-342) proposed an analytical relationship between family history and relevant genetic parameters. In this paper we expand the relationship to both genetic and environmental risk factors. We established a closed-form formula for family history as a function of genetic and environmental parameters which include genetic and environmental relative risks, genotype frequency, prevalence and familial correlation of the environmental risk factor. The relationship is illustrated by an example of female breast cancer in Australia. For genetic and environmental relative risks less than 10, most of the female breast cancer cases occur between the age of 40 and 60 years. A higher genetic or environmental relative risk will move the peak of the distribution to a younger age. A more common disease allele or more prevalent environmental risk factor will move the peak to an older age. For a proband with breast cancer, it is most likely (with probability ge80%) that none of her first-degree relatives is affected with the disease. To enable the probability of having a positive family history to reach 50%, the environmental relative risks must be extremely as high as 100, the familial correlation as high as 0.8 and the prevalence as low as 0.1. For genetic risk alone, even the relative risk is as high as 100, the probability of having a positive family history can only reach about 30%. This suggests that the environmental risk factor seems to play a more important role in determining a strong family history than the genetic risk factor.

The physiological adaptation to the erect posture involves integrated neural and cardiovascular responses that might be determined by genetic factors. We examined the familial- and individual-specific components of variance for postural changes in systolic and diastolic blood pressure in 767 volunteer nuclear adult families from the Victorian Family Heart Study. In 274 adult sibling pairs, we made a genome-wide scan using 400 markers for quantitative trait loci linked with the postural changes in systolic and diastolic pressures. Overall, systolic pressure did not change on standing, but there was considerable variation in this phenotype (SD=8.1 mm Hg). Familial analyses revealed that 25% of the variance of change in systolic pressure was attributable to genetic factors. In contrast, diastolic pressure increased by 6.3 mm Hg (SD=7.0 mm Hg) on standing and there was no evidence of contributory genetic factors. Multipoint quantitative genome linkage mapping suggested evidence ( Z =3.2) of linkage of the postural change in systolic pressure to chromosome 12 but found no genome-wide evidence of linkage for the change in diastolic pressure. These findings suggest that genetic factors determine whether systolic pressure decreases or increases when one stands, possibly as the result of unidentified alleles on chromosome 12. The genetics of postural changes in systolic blood pressure might reflect the general buffering function of the baroreflex; thereby, the predisposition to sudden decreases or increases in systolic pressure might cause postural hypotension or vessel wall disruption, respectively.

This paper uses a semi-parametric method to examine the reporting delay distribution in suicides in Hong Kong reporting system. The data arise from a rightly truncated situation in which only suicide cases registered before a specific time are known to have occurred; otherwise they are not recorded in the known death files even if they have occurred. It is shown that the poisoning-related suicide deaths have a longer reporting delay than other suicide methods. By modelling the reporting delay function, a Horvitz-Thompson-type estimator is suggested to adjust for reporting delay and to provide a more timely estimate of the suicide incidences for monitoring the suicide problem in Hong Kong. Based on these analyses, we recommended a suitable cut-off date to collect suicide cases occurring in the previous year and reported before this date in Hong Kong.

Summary The human immunodeficiency virus–acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV–AIDS) epidemic in Hong Kong has been under surveillance in the form of voluntary reporting since 1984. However, there has been little discussion or research on the reconstruction of the HIV incidence curve. This paper is the first to use a modified back-projection method to estimate the incidence of HIV in Hong Kong on the basis of the number of positive HIV tests only. The model proposed has several advantages over the original back-projection method based on AIDS data only. First, not all HIV-infected individuals will develop AIDS by the time of analysis, but some of them may undertake an HIV test; therefore, the HIV data set contains more information than the AIDS data set. Second, the HIV diagnosis curve usually has a smoother pattern than the AIDS diagnosis curve, as it is not affected by redefinition of AIDS. Third, the time to positive HIV diagnosis is unlikely to be affected by treatment effects, as it is unlikely that an individual receives medication before the diagnosis of HIV. Fourth, the induction period from HIV infection to the first HIV positive test is usually shorter than the incubation period which is from HIV infection to diagnosis of AIDS. With a shorter induction period, more information becomes available for estimating the HIV incidence curve. Finally, this method requires the number of positive HIV diagnoses only, which is readily available from HIV–AIDS surveillance systems in many countries. It is estimated that, in Hong Kong, the cumulative number of HIV infections during the period 1979–2000 is about 2600, whereas an estimate based only on AIDS data seems to give an underestimate.

Various statistical methods have been proposed to evaluate associations between measured genetic variants and disease, including some using family designs. For breast cancer and rare variants, we applied a modified segregation analysis method that uses the population cancer incidence and population-based case families in which a mutation is known to be segregating. Here we extend the method to a common polymorphism, and use a regressive logistic approach to model familial aggregation by conditioning each individual on their mother's breast cancer history. We considered three models: 1) class A regressive logistic model; 2) age-of-onset regressive logistic model; and 3) proportional hazards familial model. Maximum likelihood estimates were calculated using the software MENDEL. We applied these methods to data from the Australian Breast Cancer Family Study on the CYP17 5'UTR T--C MspA1 polymorphism measured for 1,447 case probands, 787 controls, and 213 relatives of case probands found to have the CC genotype. Breast cancer data for first- and second-degree relatives of case probands were used. The three methods gave consistent estimates. The best-fitting model involved a recessive inheritance, with homozygotes being at an increased risk of 47% (95% CI, 28-68%). The cumulative risk of the disease up to age 70 years was estimated to be 10% or 22% for a CYP17 homozygote whose mother was unaffected or affected, respectively. This analytical approach is well-suited to the data that arise from population-based case-control-family studies, in which cases, controls and relatives are studied, and genotype is measured for some but not all subjects.

This paper uses a semi-parametric method to examine the reporting delay distribution in suicides in Hong Kong reporting system. The data arise from a rightly truncated situation in which only suicide cases registered before a specific time are known to have occurred; otherwise they are not recorded in the known death files even if they have occurred. It is shown that the poisoning-related suicide deaths have a longer reporting delay than other suicide methods. By modelling the reporting delay function, a Horvitz-Thompson-type estimator is suggested to adjust for reporting delay and to provide a more timely estimate of the suicide incidences for monitoring the suicide problem in Hong Kong. Based on these analyses, we recommended a suitable cut-off date to collect suicide cases occurring in the previous year and reported before this date in Hong Kong.

Background The correlations between systolic blood pressure (SBP) and total cholesterol levels (CHOL) might result from genetic or environmental factors that determine variation in the phenotypes and are shared by family members. Based on 330 nuclear families in the Framingham Heart Study, we used a multivariate normal model, implemented in the software FISHER, to estimate genetic and shared environmental components of variation and genetic and shared environmental correlation between the phenotypes. The natural logarithm of the phenotypes measured at the last visit in both Cohort 1 and 2 was used in the analyses. The antihypertensive treatment effect was corrected before adjustment of the systolic blood pressure for age, sex, and cohort. Results The univariate correlation coefficient was statistically significant for sibling pairs and parent-offspring pairs, but not significant for spouse pairs. In the bivariate analysis, the cross-trait correlation coefficients were not statistically significant for all relative pairs. The shared environmental correlation was statistically significant, but the genetic correlation was not significant. Conclusion There is no significant evidence for a close genetic correlation between systolic blood pressure and total cholesterol levels. However, some shared environmental factors may determine the variation of both phenotypes.