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This article tests the Black’s hypothesis in five crisis-affected Asian countries(India, Japan, Malaysia, South Korea, and Thailand). The hypothesis posits that economies face a positive relationship between output growth and output volatility. Using monthly data of the industrial production indices in the five economies and applying the ARCH/GARCH models to generate a measure of output volatility to conduct the two-step approach, the results show that output volatility positively Granger causes output growth in two economies, Japan, and South Korea. The results indicate that countries with specialized technology are compensated for associated risk. In addition, the impact of the 1997 Asian financial crisis is minimal such that it will not alter the volatility and growth relationship.

The main objective of this study is to use disaggregate data between Thailand and its major trading partners to examine the validity of the purchasing power parity (PPP). Bilateral exchange rates between domestic currency (Thai baht) and each currency of major trading partners as well as the relative prices during the period of July 1997 to December 2007 are used to investigate the existence of stationary real exchange rates and cointegration between nominal exchange rates and relative prices. The results from various unit root tests and cointegration test show that PPP does not seem to hold in Thailand.

This paper investigates the relationship among monetary aggregates, prices, and aggregate output using Thailand’ quarterly data from 1993:Q1 to 2006:Q4. The estimates of money demand function based on the quantity theory indicate a stable long-run relationship between real money demand and aggregate output when M3 is used as monetary aggregate. The estimates of the prices and output equations show that cointegration of the general price level, money stock and aggregate output exists when M1 is used as monetary aggregate. Results suggest that only M3 can be used in the real money demand function while M1 is a key determinant of prices and output. The success of monetary policy should depend on M1 and M3, but not M2 if the target is to stimulate growth and to control inflation.

This study examines the relationship between stock market index and macroeconomic variables in Thailand. The results from Johansen cointegration test shows that the variables are cointegrated. Thus there exists a long-run relationship between the stock market index and a set of four macroeconomic variables. Real GDP, money supply, and nominal effective exchange rate significantly impose a positive impact on the stock market index while the price level insignificantly imposes a negative impact. The financial crisis in 1997 has no influence on stock prices. The causality test results from an error correction model show bidirectional causal relations between stock market return and the growth rate in the long run and the short run.

This study examines whether bubbles are present in the Stock Exchange of Thailand. Three different methods are employed: variance bounds test, equity price bubbles test, and cointegration tests. The results from the variance bounds tests show that stock prices (proxied by the stock market index) diverge from their fundamental values. Speculative bubbles exist using the West’s two-step test. There is no cointegration between stock prices and dividends from the results of both Engle-Granger cointegration test and the bounds testing for cointegration. The divergence of stock prices from their fundamental value and no cointegration between stock prices and dividend may indicate the presence of bubbles in the stock market during the period of investigation.

This paper investigates empirically the relationship between savings and investment in Indonesia, Philippines and Thailand by employing the bounds testing procedure. There are not many studies on the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle for the developing countries. Using bounds testing for cointegration, the results do not support a positive correlation between savings and investment in these three Asian countries.

In this paper, the variance-ratio test and the ARMA-GARCH (1,1) are used to test whether the Stock Exchange of Thailand is an efficient market. Using monthly market index during January 1987 and December 2006, the variance-ratio test shows that the market index follows a random walk process, and this is confirmed by unit root tests. The GARCH process shows that the volatility of stock market return generated by the GARCH variance series exhibits an uneven pattern. The unpredictable stock index and uneven volatility of stock return imply that the Thai stock market is efficient according to weak-form efficient market hypothesis.

This paper analyzes the impact of international oil prices on Thailand’s industrial production using Johansen cointegration test. The results show that U.S. dollar real exchange rate does not affect the economy’s industrial production index, while oil prices, and real money supply significantly impose a positive impact on the index. The positive relationship between industrial production index and oil prices indicates that the manufacturing sector can adjust itself to higher costs of production in the long run. In the short run, industrial production are affected by real money supply, real exchange rate and international oil prices. However, any deviation from a stationary long-run equilibrium in the short run will be corrected in a short period of time.

This study investigates the impact of real exchange rates and related variables on Thailand’s exports and imports with its three major trading partners. The stationarity test results show that all time series variables in the models are nonstationary and integrated of order one. However, the cointegration tests indicate these series are not cointegrated. Therefore, Stock and Watson's dynamic ordinary least squares method are employed. The results show that real income and bilateral real exchange rates are crucial determinants of export and import between Thailand and its three major trading partners as predicted by a relatively vast literature in international trade.