1. Development and validation of a nomogram to predict postoperative delirium in older patients after major abdominal surgery: a retrospective case-control study
- Author
-
Yun-Gen Luo, Xiao-Dong Wu, Yu-Xiang Song, Xiao-Lin Wang, Kai Liu, Chun-Ting Shi, Zi-Lin Wang, Yu-Long Ma, Hao Li, Yan-Hong Liu, Wei-Dong Mi, Jing-Sheng Lou, and Jiang-Bei Cao
- Subjects
Delirium ,Nomogram ,Older patients ,Surgery ,Risk factors ,RD1-811 - Abstract
Abstract Background Postoperative delirium is a common complication in older patients, with poor long-term outcomes. This study aimed to investigate risk factors and develop a predictive model for postoperative delirium in older patients after major abdominal surgery. Methods This study retrospectively recruited 7577 patients aged ≥ 65 years who underwent major abdominal surgery between January 2014 and December 2018 in a single hospital in Beijing, China. Patients were divided into a training cohort (n = 5303) and a validation cohort (n = 2224) for univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses and to build a nomogram. Data were collected for 43 perioperative variables, including demographics, medical history, preoperative laboratory results, imaging, and anesthesia information. Results Age, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, white blood cell count, glucose, total protein, creatinine, emergency surgery, and anesthesia time were associated with postoperative delirium in multivariate analysis. We developed a nomogram based on the above 8 variables. The nomogram achieved areas under the curve of 0.731 and 0.735 for the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The discriminatory ability of the nomogram was further assessed by dividing the cases into three risk groups (low-risk, nomogram score 199; P
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF