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Schmitt-Grohe and Uribe (1997) demonstrate that a balanced-budget fiscal policy can induce aggregate instability unrelated to economic fundamentals. The empirical relevance of this result has been challenged by subsequent studies. In this paper we show, both analytically and numerically, that such extrinsic instability is an empirically robust plausibility associated with a balanced-budget rule once endogenous capital utilization is taken into consideration. This suggests that the design or operation of a balanced-budget fiscal policy must recognize that it may constitute a practical source of self-fulfilling prophecies and belief-driven fluctuations.

This paper examines the instability property of balanced-budget taxation on factor income and consumption in a two-sector real business cycle model with home production. We show that the presence of home production, which is a nontaxed sector, reinforces the intratemporal and intertemporal substitution effects of balanced-budget rules. As a result, it strengthens the destabilization effect of factor income taxes and weakens the stabilization effect of consumption taxes. Moreover, our calibration shows that the number of OECD countries’ tax-rate combinations that fall into the instability region rises when home goods account for a larger share of aggregate consumption, and hence persistent cycles can easily occur following a fundamental shock or a sunspot shock.

In a closed economy setting a cash-in-advance monetary economy under money growth targeting is prone to self-fulfilling expectations and beliefs-driven fluctuations. This paper shows that such extrinsic instability is less of a problem in a small open economy integrated in the world goods and financial markets. This is because endogenous terms-of-trade movements associated with global goods trade and cross-border capital flows and endogenous international asset price adjustments associated with global financial transaction serve as an endogenous stabilizer to reduce the likelihood of sunspot equilibria. We find that for empirically reasonable parametrization of the small open economy sunspot beliefs are unlikely to become self-fulfilled.

In a real macroeconomic model, it is well established that a balanced-budget rule based on consumption tax can rule out indeterminacy. The present paper shows, both analytically and numerically, that such a balanced-budget rule induces indeterminacy and, hence, aggregate instability in a standard one-sector cash-in-advance economy. From a policy perspective, our results raise possible concerns that balanced-budget rules with endogenous consumption tax could have destabilizing effects under the current over-easy monetary environment.

In a closed economy, a balanced-budget fiscal policy rule with endogenous income tax rates can generate aggregate instability due to self-fulfilling expectations (e.g., Schmitt-Grohe and Uribe, 1997 ). This paper shows, both analytically and numerically, that beliefs-driven aggregate instability associated with such a balanced-budget rule is less of a problem in a small open economy integrated in the world asset and goods markets. This is because cross-border capital flows and endogenous international price adjustments produce income effects that reduce the likelihood of sunspot equilibria. From a policy perspective, our results relieve possible concerns that balanced-budget rules and reliance on income taxes to achieve budget objective could have destabilizing effects on the economy.

This paper generalizes the theoretical model of Aghion et al. (2012) to re-examine the cyclicality of R&D investment with credit constraint and linear production with different innovation capabilities. In contrast to their procyclical conclusion, we show that the R&D investment can be acyclical, procyclical, or countercyclical depending on the innovation capability, the tightness of credit constraint and the level of an entrepreneur‘s wealth.

In a small open economy facing a perfect world capital market, this paper shows that if the government follows a balanced-budget fiscal policy based on endogenous consumption tax rates, then the steady state is saddle-path stable and hence beliefs-driven aggregate instability can be ruled out. This result is in contrast to those obtained in some closed economy models, and it suggests that unrestricted world capital mobility can help stabilize the economy under the balanced-budget fiscal policy based on consumption taxation.

This paper examines the relation between factor substitution and (local) stability of equilibria in a one-sector real business cycle model under balanced-budget rules. We show that under non-unitary elasticity of factor substitution, the Schmitt-Grohe-Uribe indeterminacy result can be altered. Using the two-step normalization procedure, we highlight two opposing effects of factor substitution, namely, the efficiency effect and the distribution effect, on aggregate stability. With endogenous distortionary taxes and gross substitutability between capital and labor, the existing literature overlooks the distribution effect and finds that balanced-budget rules are likely to deliver indeterminacy. However, if capital stock is relatively more abundant, a higher elasticity of substitution generates a source of stability due to the distribution effect. Our calibration shows that the distribution effect is always the dominating force.

In this paper, we examine the effects of constant-rate factor taxation on macroeconomic stability in the Woodford (1986) model. Our focus is on how the degree of factor substitution, as measured by the elasticity of factor substitution (EOS) in production, affects different balanced-budget tax rules. Analytically, we show that indeterminacy can occur under capital income taxation only when the EOS is very low, whereas indeterminacy under labor income taxation is not subject to the EOS restriction. This finding is robust when we tax all of the factor incomes with equal rates. Thus, in terms of macroeconomic stability, taxing capital income is preferred to taxing labor income.

This paper examines the relation between aggregate elasticity of substitution (AES) and capital accumulation (the AES-K relation) in a general multi-sector Solow growth model with all CES production technologies. There are two intermediate goods produced by capital and labor, while the final good is produced by combining the two intermediate goods. When capital is sector-specific, then it is found that a positive AES-K relation emerges ony if the elasticity of substitution (ES) between capital and labor is of the same sign as the ES between the inter-mediate goods, but with the latter having a larger magnitude as required by the restriction of capital-skill complementarity. We also introduce the concepts of "global" versus "local" AES-capital relation and highlight that the AES findings of the existing literature are local ones. The general conclusion of our analysis is that capital mobility is an important factor for the likelihood of a positive AES-K relation.

This paper provides a unified approach to characterizing the relation between factor substitution and economic growth in different one-sector growth models (namely, the Solow, Ramsey, and Diamond models). Our main finding is that if better factor substitution raises savings in the steady state, then a higher per capita income results. There are two channels by which factor substitution affects savings: the positive efficiency effect via income and the ambiguous distribution effect via factor income shares. If the efficiency effect dominates, then a higher elasticity of substitution leads to a higher level of per capita steady-state income. In transition, factor substitution affects the rate of convergence both directly and through the equilibrium profit share. The former arises from diminishing marginal productivity of capital whereas the latter reflects its relative scarcity. Depending on the interaction of these effects, the net outcomes are characterized.

We show that, with endogenous investment, virtually all monetary policy rules that set a nominal interest rate in response solely to expected future inflation induce real indeterminacy in models with (i) staggered prices, (ii) staggered prices and staggered wages, and (iii) staggered prices, staggered wages, and firm-specific capital. In (i), policy's response to current output can help significantly in ensuring determinacy with an infinite labor supply elasticity, but little with empirically plausible labor supply elasticity. In (ii), responding to output always helps a great deal, though under low price stickiness and without capital adjustment cost it may call for a moderate response to output in order to ensure determinacy for a wide range of response to inflation. In (iii), even a tiny response to output can always render equilibrium determinate for a wide range of response to inflation.

This chapter develops a neoclassical growth model of illegal immigration with imperfect substitutability between native and immigrant workers in production. We investigate analytically and/or numerically the effects of illegal immigration on the average capital stock in the host economy as well as on the wage, income, and asset holdings of native workers. Our findings indicate that the effects of an increase in illegal immigration on the average levels of capital, consumption, and income are positive. Moreover, by employing the normalization technique (e.g., Klump & de La Grandville, 2000), we examine the effects of a change in the elasticity of substitution between immigrant workers and natives for any given immigration ratio. These effects are in general ambiguous, because of the presence of two opposing forces: the efficiency and the distribution effects. Finally, we extend the model by separating the domestic workers into skilled and unskilled and study the impact on distribution of income and wealth. We show that illegal immigration may not necessarily make the distribution of wealth more unequal and unskilled labor worse off. This is because the end results depend on the elasticities of substitution between different types of labor. Thus, assuming erroneously that immigrants and natives are perfect substitutes could lead to results that are not only overestimated but also of the wrong sign.