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Abstract Aims Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a well‐established risk factor for heart failure (HF); however, patients with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) eGFR ≥ 30 and eGFR eGFR ≥ 30 and 72.2% for patients with eGFR eGFR ≥ 30 and eGFR 30 (4 year incidence of kidney outcome as the first event was 5.0% for eGFR ≥ 60, 4.8% for 60 > eGFR ≥ 30 and 20.1% for eGFR

Abstract Aims Patients with a reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) following an acute myocardial infarction (MI) are at risk of progressive adverse cardiac remodelling that can lead to the development of heart failure and death. The early addition of a sodium‐glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitor to standard treatment may delay or prevent progressive adverse remodelling in these patients. Methods and results EMpagliflozin to PREvent worSening of left ventricular volumes and Systolic function after Myocardial Infarction (EMPRESS‐MI) is a randomized, double‐blind, placebo‐controlled, multi‐centre trial designed to assess the effect of empagliflozin on cardiac remodelling evaluated using cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) in 100 patients with left ventricular systolic dysfunction following MI. Eligible patients were those ≥12 h and ≤14 days following acute MI, with an LVEF

Background Prognostic markers and biological pathways linked to detrimental clinical outcomes in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) remain incompletely defined. Methods and Results We measured serum levels of 4123 unique proteins in 1117 patients with HFpEF enrolled in the PARAGON‐HF (Efficacy and Safety of LCZ696 Compared to Valsartan, on Morbidity and Mortality in Heart Failure Patients With Preserved Ejection Fraction) trial using a modified aptamer proteomic assay. Baseline circulating protein concentrations significantly associated with the primary end point and the timing and occurrence of total heart failure hospitalization and cardiovascular death were identified by recurrent events regression, accounting for multiple testing, adjusted for age, sex, treatment, and anticoagulant use, and compared with published analyses in 2515 patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction from the PARADIGM‐HF (Prospective Comparison of ARNI With ACEI to Determine Impact on Global Mortality and Morbidity in Heart Failure) and ATMOSPHERE (Efficacy and Safety of Aliskiren and Aliskiren/Enalapril Combination on Morbidity–Mortality in Patients With Chronic Heart Failure) clinical trials. We identified 288 proteins that were robustly associated with the risk of heart failure hospitalization and cardiovascular death in patients with HFpEF. The baseline proteins most strongly related to outcomes included B2M (β‐2 microglobulin), TIMP1 (tissue inhibitor of matrix metalloproteinase 1), SERPINA4 (serpin family A member 4), and SVEP1 (sushi, von Willebrand factor type A, EGF, and pentraxin domain containing 1). Overall, the protein–outcome associations in patients with HFpEF did not markedly differ as compared with patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction. A proteomic risk score derived in patients with HFpEF was not superior to a previous proteomic score derived in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction nor to clinical risk factors, NT‐proBNP (N‐terminal pro‐B‐type natriuretic peptide), or high‐sensitivity cardiac troponin. Conclusions Numerous serum proteins linked to metabolic, coagulation, and extracellular matrix regulatory pathways were associated with worse HFpEF prognosis in the PARAGON‐HF proteomic substudy. Our results demonstrate substantial similarities among serum proteomic risk markers for heart failure hospitalization and cardiovascular death when comparing clinical trial participants with heart failure across the ejection fraction spectrum. Registration URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique Identifiers: NCT01920711, NCT01035255, NCT00853658.

Abstract Aims Red cell distribution width (RDW) is a strong prognostic marker in patients with heart failure (HF) and reduced ejection fraction and other conditions. However, very little is known about its prognostic significance in HF with preserved ejection fraction. We examined the relationship between RDW and outcomes and the effect of sacubitril/valsartan, compared with valsartan, on RDW and clinical outcomes in PARAGON‐HF. Methods and results PARAGON‐HF enrolled patients with a left ventricular ejection fraction of ≥45%, structural heart disease, and elevated N‐terminal pro‐B‐type natriuretic peptide (NT‐proBNP). The primary endpoint was a composite of total HF hospitalizations and cardiovascular deaths. Median RDW at randomization was 14.1% (interquartile range 13.5–15.0%). Patients with higher RDW levels were more often men and had more comorbidity, a higher heart rate and NT‐proBNP concentration, more advanced New York Heart Association class, and worse Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire scores. There was a graded relationship between quartiles of RDW at randomization and the primary endpoint, with a significantly higher risk associated with increasing RDW, even after adjustment for NT‐proBNP and other prognostic variables {Quartile 1, reference; Quartile 2, rate ratio 1.03 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.83 to 1.28]; Quartile 3, 1.25 [1.01 to 1.54]; Quartile 4, 1.70 [1.39 to 2.08]}. This association was seen for each of the secondary outcomes, including cardiovascular and all‐cause death. Compared with valsartan, sacubitril/valsartan reduced RDW at 48 weeks [mean change −0.09 (95% CI −0.15 to −0.02)]. The effect of sacubitril/valsartan vs. valsartan was not significantly modified by RDW levels at randomization. Conclusions RDW, a routinely available and inexpensive biomarker, provides incremental prognostic information when added to established predictors. Compared with valsartan, sacubitril/valsartan led to a small reduction in RDW.

Background The incidence and distribution of acute and chronic dialysis among patients with heart failure (HF), stratified by diabetes, remain uncertain. We hypothesized that with improved survival and rising comorbidities, the demand for dialysis would increase over time. Methods and Results Patients with incident HF, aged 18 to 100 years, between 2002 and 2016, were identified using Danish nationwide registers. Primary outcomes included acute and chronic dialysis initiation, HF‐related hospitalization, and all‐cause mortality. These outcomes were assessed in 2002 to 2006, 2007 to 2011, and 2012 to 2016, stratified by diabetes. We calculated incidence rates (IRs) per 1000 person‐years and hazard ratios (HR) using multivariable Cox regression. Of 115 533 patients with HF, 2734 patients received acute dialysis and 1193 patients received chronic dialysis. The IR was 8.0 per 1000 and 3.5 per 1000 person‐years for acute and chronic dialysis, respectively. Acute dialysis rates increased significantly among patients with diabetes over time, while no significant changes occurred in those without diabetes, chronic dialysis, HF‐related hospitalization, or overall mortality. Diabetes was associated with significantly higher HRs of acute and chronic dialysis, respectively, compared with patients without diabetes (HR, 2.07 [95% CI, 1.80–2.39] and 2.93 [95% CI, 2.40–3.58] in 2002 to 2006; HR, 2.45 [95% CI, 2.14–2.80] and 2.86 [95% CI, 2.32–3.52] in 2007 to 2011; and 2.69 [95% CI, 2.33–3.10] and 3.30 [95% CI, 2.69–4.06] in 2012 to 2016). Conclusions The IR of acute and chronic dialysis remained low compared with HF‐related hospitalizations and mortality. Acute dialysis rates increased significantly over time, contrasting no significant trends in other outcomes. Diabetes exhibited over 2‐fold increased rates of the outcomes. These findings emphasize the importance of continued monitoring and renal care in patients with HF, especially with diabetes, to optimize outcomes and prevent adverse events.

Background The sodium glucose cotransporter‐2 inhibitors are guideline‐recommended to treat heart failure across the spectrum of left ventricular ejection fraction; however, economic evaluations of adding sodium glucose cotransporter‐2 inhibitors to standard of care in chronic heart failure across a broad left ventricular ejection fraction range are lacking. Methods and Results We conducted a US‐based cost‐effectiveness analysis of dapagliflozin added to standard of care in a chronic heart failure population using pooled, participant data from the DAPA‐HF (Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in Heart Failure) and DELIVER (Dapagliflozin Evaluation to Improve the Lives of Patients With Preserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure) trials. The 3‐state Markov model used estimates of transitional probabilities, effectiveness of dapagliflozin, and utilities from the pooled trials. Costs estimates were obtained from published sources, including published rebates in dapagliflozin cost. Adding dapagliflozin to standard of care was estimated to produce an additional 0.53 quality‐adjusted life years (QALYs) compared with standard of care alone. Incremental cost effectiveness ratios were $85 554/QALY when using the publicly reported full (undiscounted) Medicare cost ($515/month) and $40 081/QALY, at a published nearly 50% rebate ($263/month). The addition of dapagliflozin to standard of care would be of at least intermediate value (

Deewa Zahir Anjum,1 Jarl Emanuel Strange,1 Emil Fosbøl,2 Caroline Hartwell Garred,1 Mariam Elmegaard Malik,1 Charlotte Andersson,1,3 Pardeep S Jhund,4 John J V McMurray,4 Mark C Petrie,4 Lars Kober,2,5 Morten Schou1,5 1Department of Cardiology, Copenhagen University Hospital, Hellerup, Denmark; 2Department of Cardiology, Rigshospitalet, Copenhagen University Hospital, Copenhagen, Denmark; 3Cardiovascular Division, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Boston, MA, USA; 4BHF Cardiovascular Research Centre, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK; 5Department of Clinical Medicine, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, DenmarkCorrespondence: Deewa Zahir Anjum, Department of Cardiology, Copenhagen University Hospital Herlev and Gentofte, Gentofte Hospitalsvej 8., 3.sal, Hellerup, 2900, Denmark, Tel +45 22951918, Email deewa.zahir.anjum@regionh.dkBackground: Use of medical therapies for heart failure (HF) patients with moderate kidney dysfunction is low. We hypothesized that lack of initiation of HF therapy reflects the clinicians’ reluctance in very elderly and frail patients more than kidney dysfunction itself.Methods: HF patients were identified from nationwide registers between 2014 and 2021. Information was obtained on eGFR, frailty status, and prescription of HF therapy. Patients were divided into three groups: normal kidney function (eGFR ≥ 60); moderate kidney dysfunction (GFR between 30 and 59); and severe kidney dysfunction (GFR < 30). Multivariate Cox models were used to study the association of eGFR, age, and frailty with use of HF therapy.Results: Of the 42,320 HF patients included those with lower eGFR were significantly older and frailer (median age 74.3 years and 37.8% frail). The crude initiation rate of all three drug classes decreased with decreasing eGFR in a stepwise fashion. After adjusting for age and frailty status, initiation of MRA decreased with decreasing kidney function (moderate kidney function HR 0.80(95% CI 0.77– 0.84) and severe kidney function HR 0.24(0.21– 0.27)). After adjusting for age and frailty status, initiation of RAS inhibitor and BB was not significantly lower for moderate kidney dysfunction (HR 0.97(0.93– 1.02), and HR 1.06(0.97– 1.16, respectively)). Initiation of RAS inhibitor was significantly lower for patients with severe kidney dysfunction, HR 0.45(0.41– 0.50), but not for BB initiation HR 1.09(1.05– 1.14).Conclusion: In a real-world HF cohort, patients with moderate and severe kidney dysfunction were associated with reduced use of MRA irrespective of age and frailty. Reduced use of RASi was associated with severe kidney dysfunction, whereas for patients with moderate kidney dysfunction, reduced use was mainly driven by aging and frailty. Reduced use of BB seemed to be primarily explained by aging and frailty.Keywords: heart failure, epidemiology, chronic kidney disease, guideline-directed medical therapy, real-world data

Abstract Background Joint modelling combines two or more statistical models to reduce bias and increase efficiency. As the use of joint modelling increases it is important to understand how and why it is being applied to heart failure research. Methods A systematic review of major medical databases of studies which used joint modelling within heart failure alongside an exemplar; joint modelling repeat measurements of serum digoxin with all-cause mortality using data from the Effect of Digoxin on Mortality and Morbidity in Patients with Heart Failure (DIG) trial. Results Overall, 28 studies were included that used joint models, 25 (89%) used data from cohort studies, the remaining 3 (11%) using data from clinical trials. 21 (75%) of the studies used biomarkers and the remaining studies used imaging parameters and functional parameters. The exemplar findings show that a per unit increase of square root serum digoxin is associated with the hazard of all-cause mortality increasing by 1.77 (1.34–2.33) times when adjusting for clinically relevant covariates. Conclusion Recently, there has been a rise in publications of joint modelling being applied to heart failure. Where appropriate, joint models should be preferred over traditional models allowing for the inclusion of repeated measures while accounting for the biological nature of biomarkers and measurement error.

Abstract Aims Data on long‐term treatment effects are scarce, despite the intent to use new therapies for many years and the need of patients, physicians and payers to have a better understanding of the lifetime benefits of treatments. The restricted mean or median survival time (RMST) calculated using age instead of time, hypothetically enables estimation of long‐term gain in event‐free or overall survival from the short‐term (within‐trial) effects of an intervention, compared with its control. Tha aim of the study is to use trials with long‐term follow‐up available through extension studies to compare the long‐term projections estimated using RMST from within‐trial follow‐up data with the actual long‐term outcomes in the extension studies. Methods and results We estimated the median long‐term survival time using age instead of follow‐up time and compared these model‐based projections with the actual long‐term estimates in the (i) SCD‐HeFT trial vs. SCD‐HeFT long‐term outcomes; (ii) SOLVD trial vs. SOLVD 12 year follow‐up; (iii) STICH trial vs. STICHES; and (iv) ACCORD study vs. ACCORDION. In the long‐term follow‐up of SCD‐HeFT, gain in survival with ICD vs. placebo over a median of 11.0 years was +1.4 years of life. The RMST model‐derived survival projection from the within‐trial data (median follow‐up of 3.4 years) gave an estimated survival gain of +1.2 years. In STICHES, over a median follow‐up of 9.8 years, coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) vs. medical care led to a survival extension of +1.4 years in favour of CABG. RMST projections using within‐trial data from STICH (median follow‐up of 4.9 years), gave an extended survival of +2.4 years in favour of CABG in younger patients. In the long‐term follow‐up of SOLVD, enalapril vs. placebo led to a survival gain of +0.8 years over a median follow‐up of 12.1 years. The RMST projections from the within‐trial data (median follow‐up of 2.8 years) gave a survival extension of +0.3 years in favour of enalapril. In the long‐term follow‐up ACCORDION study, with a median follow‐up of 8.8 years, intensive vs. a standard anti‐hyperglycaemic treatment did not influence long‐term survival, which was concordant with the RMST projections from the short‐term ACCORD study with median follow‐up of 4.9 years. Conclusions Age‐based survival projections using within‐trial data generally provided concordant results with the actual survival measured in long‐term follow‐up extension studies. Our findings suggest that age‐based lifetime projections may be used as means to assess the long‐term treatment effects.

Abstract While the interplay between heart failure (HF) and atrial fibrillation (AF) has been extensively studied, little is known regarding HF and atrial flutter (AFL), which may be managed differently. We reviewed the incidence, prevalence, and predictors of HF in AFL and vice versa, and the outcomes of treatment of AFL in HF. A systematic literature review of PubMed/Medline and EMBASE yielded 65 studies for inclusion and qualitative synthesis. No study described the incidence or prevalence of AFL in unselected patients with HF. Most cohorts enrolled patients with AF/AFL as interchangeable diagnoses, or highly selected patients with tachycardia‐induced cardiomyopathy. The prevalence of HF in AFL ranged from 6% to 56%. However, the phenotype of HF was never defined by left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). No studies reported the predictors, phenotype, and prognostic implications of AFL in HF. There was significant variation in treatments studied, including the proportion that underwent ablation. When systolic dysfunction was tachycardia‐mediated, catheter ablation demonstrated LVEF normalization in up to 88%, as well as reduced cardiovascular mortality. In summary, AFL and HF often coexist but are understudied, with no randomized trial data to inform care. Further research is warranted to define the epidemiology and establish optimal management.

Abstract More stringent blood pressure (BP) goals have led to greater prevalence of apparent resistant hypertension (ARH), yet the long‐term prognostic impact of ARH diagnosed according to these goals in the general population remains unknown. We assessed the prognostic impact of ARH according to contemporary BP goals in 9612 participants of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study without previous cardiovascular disease. ARH, defined as BP above goal (traditional goal

Abstract Aims In patients at high risk of heart failure following myocardial infarction (MI) as a result of residual left ventricular systolic dysfunction (LVSD), the angiotensin receptor neprilysin inhibitor sacubitril/valsartan may result in a greater attenuation of adverse left ventricular (LV) remodelling than renin angiotensin aldosterone system inhibition alone, due to increased levels of substrates for neprilysin with vasodilatory, anti‐hypertrophic, anti‐fibrotic, and sympatholytic effects. Methods We designed a randomized, double‐blinded, active‐comparator trial to examine the effect of sacubitril/valsartan to the current standard of care in reducing adverse LV remodelling in patients with asymptomatic LVSD following MI. Eligible patients were ≥3 months following MI, had an LV ejection fraction ≤40% as measured by echocardiography, were New York Heart Association functional classification I, tolerant of an angiotensin‐converting enzyme inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker at equivalent dose of ramipril 2.5 mg twice daily or greater, and taking a beta‐blocker unless contraindicated or intolerant. Patients were randomized to sacubitril/valsartan (target dose 97/103 mg twice daily) or valsartan (target dose 160 mg twice daily). The primary endpoint will be change in LV end‐systolic volume indexed for body surface area measured using cardiac magnetic resonance imaging over 52 weeks from randomization. Secondary endpoints include other magnetic resonance imaging‐based metrics of LV remodelling, biomarkers associated with LV remodelling and neurohumoral activation, and change in patient well‐being assessed using a patient global assessment questionnaire. Conclusions This trial will investigate the effect of neprilysin inhibition on LV remodelling and the neurohumoral actions of sacubitril/valsartan in patients with asymptomatic LVSD following MI.

Abstract Aims Little is known about patient characteristics, outcomes, and the effect of treatment in relation to duration of heart failure (HF). We have investigated these questions in PARADIGM‐HF. The aim of the study was to compare patient characteristics, outcomes, and the effect of sacubitril/valsartan, compared with enalapril, in relation to time from HF diagnosis in PARADIGM‐HF. Methods and results HF duration was categorized as 0–1, >1–2, >2–5, and >5 years. Outcomes were adjusted for prognostic variables, including N‐terminal pro‐brain natriuretic peptide (NT‐proBNP). The primary endpoint was the composite of HF hospitalization or cardiovascular death. The number of patients in each group was as follows: 0–1 year, 2523 (30%); >1–2 years, 1178 (14%); >2–5 years, 2054 (24.5%); and >5 years, 2644 (31.5%). Patients with longer‐duration HF were older, more often male, and had worse New York Heart Association class and quality of life, more co‐morbidity, and higher troponin‐T but similar NT‐proBNP levels. The primary outcome rate (per 100 person‐years) increased with HF duration: 0–1 year, 8.4 [95% confidence interval (CI) 7.6–9.2]; >1–2 years, 11.2 (10.0–12.7); >2–5 years, 13.4 (12.4–14.6); and >5 years, 14.2 (13.2–15.2); P 1–2, >2–5, and >5 years, compared with 0–1 year. The benefit of sacubitril/valsartan was consistent across HF duration for all outcomes, with the primary endpoint hazard ratio 0.80 (95% CI 0.67–0.97) for 0–1 year and 0.73 (0.63–0.84) in the >5 year group. For the primary outcome, the number needed to treat for >5 years was 18, compared with 29 for 0–1 year. Conclusions Patients with longer‐duration HF had more co‐morbidity, worse quality of life, and higher rates of HF hospitalization and death. The benefit of a neprilysin inhibitor was consistent, irrespective of HF duration. Switching to sacubitril/valsartan had substantial benefits, even in patients with long‐standing HF.

Background Little is known about the impact of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). Methods and Results We examined outcomes in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction, according to COPD status, in the PARAGON‐HF (Prospective Comparison of Angiotensin Receptor Neprilysin Inhibitor With Angiotensin Receptor Blocker Global Outcomes in Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction) trial. The primary outcome was a composite of first and recurrent hospitalizations for heart failure and cardiovascular death. Of 4791 patients, 670 (14%) had COPD. Patients with COPD were more likely to be men (58% versus 47%; P

• Whether dapagliflozin is beneficial in patients with sleep apnea and heart failure, across the range of ejection fractions, is unknown. • In a pooled individual-level meta-analysis of DAPA-HF and DELIVER, investigator-reported sleep apnea was associated with a greater risk of worsening heart failure events. • Dapagliflozin, compared with placebo, reduced the risk of clinical outcomes and improved health-related quality of life in patients with and without sleep apnea. Sleep apnea is more common in patients with heart failure (HF) than in the general population, but little is known about its association with clinical outcomes in various HF phenotypes or how it might modify the effect of HF therapy. To examine the prevalence of sleep apnea, its association with outcomes and the effects of dapagliflozin in patients with HF with and without sleep apnea in a pooled analysis of 2 trials comparing dapagliflozin to placebo in HFrEF (DAPA-HF trial) and HFmrEF/HFpEF (DELIVER trial). A history of sleep apnea was investigator-reported. The primary outcome was a composite of worsening HF or cardiovascular death. The prevalence of sleep apnea was 5.7% and 7.8% in patients with HFrEF and HFmrEF/HFpEF, respectively. The primary outcome occurred at a rate of 16.0 in participants with sleep apnea compared to 10.6 per 100 person-years in those without (adjusted HR 1.29 [95%CI, 1.10–1.52]). Compared with placebo, dapagliflozin reduced the risk of the primary endpoint to the same extent in patients with (HR 0.78 [95% CI, 0.59–1.03]) and without sleep apnea (HR 0.79 [0.72–0.87]) [P interaction = 0.93]. The beneficial effects of dapagliflozin on other clinical outcomes and symptom burden, physical function, and quality of life were consistent in participants with and without sleep apnea. In DAPA-HF and DELIVER, the true prevalence of sleep apnea was likely underestimated. An investigator-reported history of sleep apnea was associated with higher rates of worsening HF events. The benefits of dapagliflozin on clinical outcomes were consistent in patients with and without sleep apnea. Unique identifiers: NCT01920711 In a pooled analysis of the DAPA-HF and DELIVER trials of more than 11,000 patients with heart failure (HF) across the range of ejection fractions, an investigator-reported history of sleep apnea was associated with higher rates of worsening HF events but not mortality. The beneficial effects of dapagliflozin on clinical outcomes were consistent in patients with and without sleep apnea. These findings provide further evidence for dapagliflozin as a new treatment option for patients with heart failure across the range of ejection fractions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a common comorbidity in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, associated with undertreatment and worse outcomes. New treatments for heart failure with reduced ejection fraction may be particularly important in patients with concomitant COPD. Methods and Results We examined outcomes in 8399 patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, according to COPD status, in the PARADIGM‐HF (Prospective Comparison of Angiotensin Receptor Blocker–Neprilysin Inhibitor With Angiotensin‐Converting Enzyme Inhibitor to Determine Impact on Global Mortality and Morbidity in Heart Failure) trial. Cox regression models were used to compare COPD versus non‐COPD subgroups and the effects of sacubitril/valsartan versus enalapril. Patients with COPD (n=1080, 12.9%) were older than patients without COPD (mean 67 versus 63 years; P

Background Patients with chronic diseases are at higher risk of requiring domiciliary and nursing home care, but how different chronic diseases compare in terms of risk is not known. We examined initiation of domiciliary care and nursing home admission among patients with heart failure (HF), stroke, COPD and cancer. Methods Patients with a first-time hospitalization for HF, stroke, COPD or cancer from 2008–2016 were identified. Patients were matched on age and sex and followed for five years. Results 111,144 patients, 27,786 with each disease, were identified. The median age was 69 years and two thirds of the patients were men. The 5-year risk of receiving domiciliary care was; HF 20.9%, stroke 25.2%, COPD 24.6% and cancer 19.3%. The corresponding adjusted hazard ratios (HRs), with HF patients used as reference, were: stroke 1.35[1.30–1.40]; COPD 1.29[1.25–1.34]; and cancer 1.19[1.14–1.23]. The five-year incidence of nursing home admission was 6.6% for stroke, and substantially lower in patients with HF(2.6%), COPD(2.6%) and cancer (1.5%). The adjusted HRs were (HF reference): stroke, 2.44 [2.23–2.68]; COPD 1.01 [0.91–1.13] and cancer 0.76 [0.67–0.86]. Living alone, older age, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, depression and dementia predicted a higher likelihood of both types of care. Conclusions In patients with HF, stroke, COPD or cancer 5-year risk of domiciliary care and nursing home admission, ranged from 19–25% and 1–7%, respectively. Patients with stroke had the highest rate of domiciliary care and were more than twice as likely to be admitted to a nursing home, compared to patients with the other conditions.

Background NT‐proBNP (N‐terminal pro‐B‐type natriuretic peptide) improves the discriminatory ability of risk‐prediction models in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) but is not yet used in clinical practice. We assessed the discriminatory strength of NT‐proBNP by itself for death and cardiovascular events in high‐risk patients with T2DM. Methods and Results Cox proportional hazards were used to create a base model formed by 20 variables. The discriminatory ability of the base model was compared with that of NT‐proBNP alone and with NT‐proBNP added, using C‐statistics. We studied 5509 patients (with complete data) of 8561 patients with T2DM and cardiovascular and/or chronic kidney disease who were enrolled in the ALTITUDE (Aliskiren in Type 2 Diabetes Using Cardiorenal Endpoints) trial. During a median 2.6‐year follow‐up period, 469 patients died and 768 had a cardiovascular composite outcome (cardiovascular death, resuscitated cardiac arrest, nonfatal myocardial infarction, stroke, or heart failure hospitalization). NT‐proBNP alone was as discriminatory as the base model for predicting death (C‐statistic, 0.745 versus 0.744, P=0.95) and the cardiovascular composite outcome (C‐statistic, 0.723 versus 0.731, P=0.37). When NT‐proBNP was added, it increased the predictive ability of the base model for death (C‐statistic, 0.779 versus 0.744, P