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Herbivorous waterfowl populations have increasingly adapted to forage on agricultural land and triggered a parallel rise in damage to agricultural crops. Winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) is the most commonly reported crop damaged in northern Europe, and farmers increasingly demand management actions to mitigate economic impacts. Here, we apply two parallel approaches (exclosure experiments in undisturbed fields and yield assessments in fields subject to scaring) to quantify the impact of waterfowl grazing on winter wheat yield, crop height and nutrient content. We demonstrate that waterfowl grazing led to a substantial reduction in crop height during winter and early spring, but also that compensatory growth led to no significant effect on crop height at the time of harvest. In terms of grain yield, the effect of waterfowl grazing varied from non-significant to a 6 % loss, and on fields subject to scaring, the negative effect of grazing was only significant when grazing continued into spring (the case for 7.6 % of the area sampled). In addition, the exclosure experiments indicated that plots grazed both winter and spring had a protein content 9 % lower than ungrazed plots. While these figures express an economic loss to the affected farmers, our findings also indicate that substantial economic impacts from grazing waterfowl on winter wheat was rare in our study area. This may also be the case elsewhere in the temperate region, when most waterfowl abandon crop foraging in due time to allow for compensatory growth in late spring, and as long as the early developmental stages survive the early impacts from grazing. A substantial scaring effort had only a limited effect on grain yield loss when fields were grazed during spring, but seemed to prevent damage on fields that were grazed only during winter. Future decision-making in relation to the waterfowl-agriculture conflict may benefit from studies looking in-depth at the costs and benefits associated with scaring efforts. Herbivorous waterfowl populations have increasingly adapted to forage on agricultural land and triggered a parallel rise in damage to agricultural crops. Winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) is the most commonly reported crop damaged in northern Europe, and farmers increasingly demand management actions to mitigate economic impacts. Here, we apply two parallel approaches (exclosure experiments in undisturbed fields and yield assessments in fields subject to scaring) to quantify the impact of waterfowl grazing on winter wheat yield, crop height and nutrient content. We demonstrate that waterfowl grazing led to a substantial reduction in crop height during winter and early spring, but also that compensatory growth led to no significant effect on crop height at the time of harvest. In terms of grain yield, the effect of waterfowl grazing varied from non-significant to a 6% loss, and on fields subject to scaring, the negative effect of grazing was only significant when grazing continued into spring (the case for 7.6% of the area sampled). In addition, the exclosure experiments indicated that plots grazed both winter and spring had a protein content 9% lower than ungrazed plots. While these figures express an economic loss to the affected farmers, our findings also indicate that substantial economic impacts from grazing waterfowl on winter wheat was rare in our study area. This may also be the case elsewhere in the temperate region, when most waterfowl abandon crop foraging in due time to allow for compensatory growth in late spring, and as long as the early developmental stages survive the early impacts from grazing. A substantial scaring effort had only a limited effect on grain yield loss when fields were grazed during spring, but seemed to prevent damage on fields that were grazed only during winter. Future decision-making in relation to the waterfowl-agriculture conflict may benefit from studies looking in-depth at the costs and benefits associated with scaring efforts.

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the role of narcissistic supply for the association between CEO narcissism and corporate risk taking.Design/methodology/approachThe authors investigate a sample of 281 non-financial S&P 1500 firms and a corresponding 457 CEOs in the 10-yr period 2006–2015.FindingsThe association between CEO narcissism and corporate risk taking depends on the admiration, attention, and affirmation of own superiority (“narcissistic supply”) that the CEO receives given her/his current position. Thus, a narcissistic CEO with an insufficient narcissistic supply (small firm/small compensation) will crave for more and take more risks (“rock the boat”) while a narcissistic CEO with a sufficient narcissistic supply (large firm/large compensation) will protect the status quo and be reluctant to take new risks. Specifically, the authors find that a change from a slightly narcissistic CEO to a strongly narcissistic CEO, for positions entailing limited (abundant) narcissistic supply, is associated with an increase (a decrease) in corporate risk of 6%–8% (11%–27%).Originality/valuePrevious research indicates a positive association between CEO narcissism and corporate risk taking in specific domains such as M&A and R&D activities. This paper provides a novel contribution to the existing literature by identifying and assessing the important role of narcissistic supply for the association between CEO narcissism and corporate risk taking in general.

Consider a standard Brownian motion in one dimension, having either a zero drift, or a non-zero drift that is randomly distributed according to a known probability law. Following the motion in real time, the problem is to detect as soon as possible and with minimal probabilities of the wrong terminal decisions, whether a non-zero drift is present in the observed motion. We solve this problem for a class of admissible laws in the Bayesian formulation, under any prior probability of the non-zero drift being present in the motion, when the passage of time is penalised linearly.

BackgroundCheckpoint inhibitors have significantly improved treatment of metastatic melanoma. Yet, 40–60% of the patients do not achieve a long-term benefit from such immunotherapy. Thus, there is an urgent need to identify biomarkers that can predict response to immunotherapy to guide patients for the best possible treatment. Here, we evaluate an unsupervised machine learning approach to identify potential cytokine signatures from liquid biopsies that predict response to immunotherapy in melanoma.MethodsBlood samples were drawn from 74 patients diagnosed with unresectable advanced-stage melanoma undergoing treatment with first-line nivolumab/ipilimumab or pembrolizumab between August 2017 – July 2019 at Aarhus University Hospital, Denmark. Blood samples were tested for plasma levels of PD-1, PD-L1, IFN-beta, IFN-gamma, CCL20, CXCL5, CXCL10, IL6, IL8, IL10, MCP1, and TNF-alpha by Meso Scale ELISA assays. Healthy controls were used to compare general cytokine levels in plasma. A bioinformatic workflow consisting of Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection (UMAP) dimension reduction method and k-means clustering analysis was applied to define clusters based on the cytokine profile, followed by survival analysis of the clusters.ResultsUMAP analysis demonstrated that the cytokine profile at baseline was similar for healthy controls and patients, regardless of treatment. Upon treatment initiation, the cytokine profile changed in a treatment-dependent way to be significantly different between patient groups. Clustering defined by the cytokine profile measured early during treatment in nivolumab/ipilimumab treated patients identified two clusters associated with superior progression-free survival (PFS) (log-rank p=0.018). We identified that these cluster were characterized by significantly higher levels of PD-1, CXCL10, and TNF-alpha. UMAP analysis of the cytokine level as fold change over baseline level, confirmed that nivolumab/ipilimumab patients with superior PFS were characterized by higher levels of PD-1, CXCL10, and TNF-alpha. Cox regression analysis revealed high fold change of PD-1 as a strong predictor for superior PFS (HR=0.29; 95% CI 0.12–0.66; p=0.0032). However, a similar cytokine profile was not associated to superior PFS in patients receiving pembrolizumab, suggesting that the cytokine signature is specific for nivolumab/ipilimumab treatment.ConclusionsUsing unsupervised machine learning we identified a cytokine signature of high PD-1, CXCL10, and TNF-alpha to be associated with superior PFS in advanced-stage melanoma patients treated with nivolumab/ipilimumab but not pembrolizumab, with high fold change of PD-1 being a strong individual predictor for PFS.AcknowledgementsWe thank the medical laboratory technicians who collected blood samples and the patients who participated in the study.Ethics ApprovalThe study was approved by Central Denmark Region Committees on Biomedical Research Ethics, approval number 1-10-72-374-15.

IMPORTANCE: Children and adults spend large amounts of their leisure time using screen media, which may affect their health and behavior. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the effect of reducing household recreational screen media use on physical activity and sleep in children and adults. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This was a cluster randomized clinical trial with a 2-week follow-up. Enrollment began on June 6, 2019, and ended on March 30, 2021. This study included a population-based sample from 10 Danish municipalities. A total of 89 families (181 children and 164 adults) were recruited based on a population-based survey on screen media habits in families with children. To be eligible, the responding parent had to list self-reported recreational screen use greater than the 40th percentile of recreational screen time use in the source population (>2.4 hours per day). In addition, the parent had to be full-time employed (with no regular night shifts) or enrolled in full-time education. INTERVENTIONS: Families were randomly assigned to the screen media reduction intervention (45 families, 86 children, 82 adults) designed to ensure participant compliance to a maximum use of screen media (≤3 hours per week) for a 2-week period. Families randomly assigned to the control group (44 families, 95 children, 82 adults) were instructed to carry on as usual. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary outcome was between-group difference in leisure nonsedentary activity (in minutes per day) measured by combined thigh and waist accelerometry. Secondary outcomes included other physical activity and sleep parameters measured by single-channel electroencephalography. RESULTS: Among the 89 randomized families (intervention group [45 families]: 86 children; mean [SD] age, 8.6 [2.7] years; 44 boys [51%]; 42 girls [49%]; control group [44 families]: 95 children, mean [SD] age, 9.5 [2.5] years; 38 boys [40%]; 57 girls [60%]), 157 children (87%) had complete data on the primary outcome. Eighty-three children (97%) in the intervention group were compliant to the screen use reduction during the intervention. The mean (SD) change in leisure nonsedentary activity in the intervention group was 44.8 (63.5) minutes per day and in the control group was 1.0 (55.1) minute per day (intention-to-treat between-group mean difference, 45.8 minutes per day; 95% CI, 27.9-63.6 minutes per day; P

Aims: To examine prospective and cross-sectional associations between screen time and blood pressure (BP) in preschool children. Methods: The Odense Child Cohort study started in January 2010. Children who were born in the municipality of Odense underwent a clinical examination at 3 and 5 years of age and their parents were asked to complete a questionnaire. A total of 628 children were included in the prospective analysis and 964 children were included in two cross-sectional analyses at 5 years of age. Multivariable adjusted linear and logistic regression models were computed to examine prospective and cross-sectional associations between screen time and BP with adjustment for putative confounding factors. Results: No significant prospective association was found between a 2-year change in screen time and systolic BP (0.55 BP percentile change per 1 h increase in screen time, 95% confidence interval (CI) −1.51 to 2.60) and diastolic BP (0.74 BP percentile change per 1 h increase in screen time, 95% CI −1.09 to 2.57). No significant cross-sectional association was observed between screen time (⩽1 h/day, >1–2 h/day, >2 h/day) and the prevalence of high BP at 5 years of age. Exposure to screen time before bedtime 2–5 days/week and ⩾6 days/week was significantly associated with a greater prevalence of high BP compared with screen time before bedtime 0–1 day/week (odds ratios 1.57 (95% CI 1.02–2.42) and 1.82 (95% CI 1.18–2.89), respectively. Conclusions: No prospective association was found between screen time and BP. However, a significant cross-sectional association was found between screen time before bedtime and high BP in preschool children.

Mentalization-based treatment in groups (MBT-G) has never been tested in adolescents with Borderline Personality Disorder (BPD) in a randomized controlled trial. The current study aimed to test the long-term effectiveness of MBT-G in an adolescent sample with BPD or BPD features (≥ 4 DSM-5 BPD criteria). Hundred and eleven patients with BPD (n = 106) or BPD features (n = 5) were randomized to either (1) a 1-year modified MBT-G program comprising three MBT introductory sessions, five individual case formulation sessions, 37 weekly MBT group sessions, and six MBT-Parent sessions, or (2) treatment as usual (TAU), defined as at least 12 individual monthly treatment sessions with follow-up assessments at 3 and 12 months post treatment. The primary outcome was the score on the Borderline Personality Features Scale for Children (BPFS-C), and secondary outcomes included clinician-rated BPD symptoms and global level of functioning as well as self-reported self-harm, depression, externalizing and internalizing symptoms, and caregiver reports. There were no statistically significant differences between MBT-G and TAU on the primary outcome measure or any of the secondary outcomes. Both groups showed improvement on the majority of clinical and social outcomes at both follow-up points, although remission rates were modest with just 35% in MBT-G and 39% in TAU 2 years after inclusion into the study. MBT-G was not superior to TAU in improving borderline features in adolescents. Although improvement was observed equally in both interventions over time, the patients continued to exhibit prominent BPD features, general psychopathology and decreased functioning in the follow-up period, which points to a need for more research and better understanding of effective components in early intervention programs. The ClinicalTrials.gov identifier is NCT02068326.

Aims:Little is known about the influence of parents’ screen media habits and attitudes towards screen media on children’s screen use. We investigated associations of parental screen use, their smartphone addiction and screen media attitudes, with children’s recreational screen use.Methods:This study was based on a population-based cross-sectional survey sent between May 2019 and November 2020 to a random sample of 6820 Danish parent–child dyads who answered questions regarding their screen media habits. Children were 6–11 years of age and had to reside with the parent. Multivariable adjusted regression analyses were conducted (in October 2021) separately for screen media use on weekdays and weekend days.Results:The analyses included 5437 parents (41.0 years, 67.6% girls) and 5437 children (8.9 years, 48.2% girls). The adjusted relative odds of excessive amounts of screen use of children (>3 hours/weekday and >4 hours/weekend day) was 5.8 (95% confidence interval (CI) 4.6; 7.3) on weekdays and 7.2 (95% CI 5.9; 8.8) on weekend days comparing the fourth and first quartile of parental screen use. Children of parents in the fourth quartile of parental screen use had 2.1 (95% CI 1.7; 2.5) and 2.5 (95% CI 2.2; 3.0) greater odds of screen use before bedtime on all week and weekend days, respectively. Children of parents who had a positive attitude towards their child’s screen use or were at high risk of smartphone addiction had significantly higher screen use and more frequent problematic screen use.Conclusions:Parent’s screen media habits and attitudes were strongly associated with their children’s recreational screen use.

Background Sleep is a crucial part of our lives and insufficient sleep has been linked to several health disorders in both children and adults. However, most studies are based on single night laboratory polysomnography, actigraphy, or sleep diaries. The primary aim of this study was to evaluate the feasibility of a novel self-administered electroencephalography-based (EEG-based) sleep assessment protocol in a sample of children and adults for six nights. The secondary aim was to report sleep parameters derived from the Zmachine.Methods We analyzed data from 12 families who participated in the SCREENS pilot trial (2018-2019). Children (n=14) and adults (n=19) had to undergo three nights of EEG-based sleep assessment at baseline and follow-up. We assessed compliance to the sleep assessment protocol and summarized perceived feasibility in children and adults. Summary estimates were computed for several sleep parameters.Results Compliance to the sleep assessment protocol was high with 92.9 % and 89.4% of children and adults meeting the a priori specified compliance goal of at least two out of three nights of complete sleep data at both baseline and follow-up. In general, the protocol was perceived as feasible, with low prevalence of sleep disruption and only minor issues, e.g. difficulties with removing sensors. Results on sleep parameters indicate large within group variation.Conclusions Our findings support the use of a self-administered EEG-based habitual sleep assessment protocol, including multiple days of measurement, in children and adults.Trial registration Cilinicaltrials.gov: NCT03788525 [Secondary outcome measures; Retrospectively registered; 27th December, 2018] https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03788525 .

We consider the caching of content in the mobile devices in a dense wireless network using maximum distance separable (MDS) codes. We focus on an area, served by a base station (BS), where mobile devices move around according to a random mobility model. Users requesting a particular file download coded packets from caching devices within a communication range, using device-to-device communication. If additional packets are required to decode the file, these are downloaded from the BS. We analyze the device mobility and derive a good approximation of the distribution of caching devices within the communication range of mobile devices at any given time. We then optimize the MDS codes to minimize the network load under a cache size constraint and show that using optimized MDS codes results in significantly lower network load compared to when caching the most popular files. We further show numerically that caching coded packets of each file on all mobile devices, i.e., maximal spreading, is optimal., Comment: Accepted for publication in the IEEE Transactions on Wireless Communications

The aim of the presented study was to investigate the impact on the radiation budget of a biomass-burning plume, transported from Alaska to the High Arctic region of Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, in early July 2015. Since the mean aerosol optical depth increased by the factor of 10 above the average summer background values, this large aerosol load event is considered particularly exceptional in the last 25 years. In situ data with hygroscopic growth equations, as well as remote sensing measurements as inputs to radiative transfer models, were used, in order to estimate biases associated with (i) hygroscopicity, (ii) variability of single-scattering albedo profiles, and (iii) plane-parallel closure of the modelled atmosphere. A chemical weather model with satellite-derived biomass-burning emissions was applied to interpret the transport and transformation pathways. The provided MODTRAN radiative transfer model (RTM) simulations for the smoke event (14:00 9 July–11:30 11 July) resulted in a mean aerosol direct radiative forcing at the levels of −78.9 and −47.0 W m−2 at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere, respectively, for the mean value of aerosol optical depth equal to 0.64 at 550 nm. This corresponded to the average clear-sky direct radiative forcing of −43.3 W m−2, estimated by radiometer and model simulations at the surface. Ultimately, uncertainty associated with the plane-parallel atmosphere approximation altered results by about 2 W m−2. Furthermore, model-derived aerosol direct radiative forcing efficiency reached on average −126 W m−2∕τ550 and −71 W m−2∕τ550 at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere, respectively. The heating rate, estimated at up to 1.8 K day−1 inside the biomass-burning plume, implied vertical mixing with turbulent kinetic energy of 0.3 m2 s−2.

We assume that the wealth process $X^u$ is self-financing and generated from the initial wealth by holding a fraction $u$ of $X^u$ in a risky stock (whose price follows a geometric Brownian motion) and the remaining fraction $1-u$ of $X^u$ in a riskless bond (whose price compounds exponentially with interest rate $r \in {R}$). Letting $P_{t,x}$ denote a probability measure under which $X^u$ takes value $x$ at time $t,$ we study the dynamic version of the nonlinear optimal control problem $\inf_u\, Var{t,X_t^u}(X_T^u)$ where the infimum is taken over admissible controls $u$ subject to $X_t^u \ge e^{-r(T-t)} g$ and $E{t,X_t^u}(X_T^u) \ge \beta$ for $ t \in [0,T]$. The two constants $g$ and $\beta$ are assumed to be given exogenously and fixed. By conditioning on the expected terminal wealth value, we show that the nonlinear problem can be reduced to a family of linear problems. Solving the latter using a martingale method combined with Lagrange multipliers, we derive the dynamically optimal control $u_*^d$ in closed form and prove that the dynamically optimal terminal wealth $X_T^d$ can only take two values $g$ and $\beta$. This binomial nature of the dynamically optimal strategy stands in sharp contrast with other known portfolio selection strategies encountered in the literature. A direct comparison shows that the dynamically optimal (time-consistent) strategy outperforms the statically optimal (time-inconsistent) strategy in the problem.

During the last century, many large irrigation projects were carried out in arid lands worldwide. Despite a tremendous increase in food production, a common problem when characterizing these zones is land degradation in the form of waterlogging. A clear example of this phenomenon is in the Nubariya depression in the Western Desert of Egypt. Following the reclamation of desert lands for agricultural production, an artificial brackish and contaminated pond started to develop in the late 1990s, which at present extends for about 2.5 km2. The available data provide evidence of a simultaneous general deterioration of the groundwater system. An extensive hydrogeophysical investigation was carried out in this challenging environment using magnetic resonance sounding (MRS) and ground-based time-domain electromagnetic (TEM) techniques with the following main objectives: (1) understanding the hydrological evolution of the area; (2) characterizing the hydrogeological setting; and (3) developing scenarios for artificial aquifer remediation and recharge. The integrated interpretation of the geophysical surveys provided a hydrogeological picture of the upper 100 m sedimentary setting in terms of both lithological distribution and groundwater quality. The information is then used to set up (1) a regional groundwater flow and (2) a local density-dependent flow and transport numerical model to reproduce the evolution of the aquifer system and develop a few scenarios for artificial aquifer recharge using the treated water provided by a nearby wastewater treatment plant. The research outcomes point to the hydrological challenges that emerge for the effective management of water resources in reclaimed desert areas, and they highlight the effectiveness of using advanced geophysical and modeling methodologies.

Geophysical methods are routinely applied for investigation of near surface in areas of infrastructure, water supply, artificial infiltration, farming, waste deposits, construction, etc. A new towed transient electromagnetic tool, called ‘tTEM’, provides rapid, efficient, high‐resolution imaging of subsurface hydrogeology, and can deliver densely spaced profiles of resistivity. These profiles can be used to map a three‐dimensional subsurface in high resolution. In this paper, we present three case studies where the towed transient electromagnetic system was used to map the subsurface at the hectare scale. In the first case, we used towed transient electromagnetic to map raw materials in the northern Jutland, Denmark. The survey was carried out to map possible sand and gravel deposits. In the towed transient electromagnetic models, the potential sand/gravel targets are identified as high resistive bodies in the top 30 m. These bodies can have significant lateral variation at scales much less than one hundred metres. In the second case study, towed transient electromagnetic was used to map the thickness of a protecting clay layer above an aquifer in Vildbjerg, a town in the central part of Denmark. Results show that the overlying clay layer has sufficient thickness (>15 m) to protect the underlying aquifer from pesticide pollution in the area. Finally, in the third case study, we used towed transient electromagnetic for mapping geology in the vicinity of a landfill. The inversion results reveal a hitherto unknown buried valley‐like feature within the top 30 m of the subsurface that was not identified by older, regional TEM surveys – a feature that can have significant impact on the water flow.