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The correlated evolution of multiple characters is a crucial aspect of evolutionary change. If change in a particular character influences the evolution of a separate trait, then modeling these features independently can mislead our understanding of the evolutionary process. Progress toward jointly modeling several characters has involved modeling multivariate evolution of the same class of character, but there are far fewer options when jointly modeling traits when one character is discrete and the other is continuous. Here, we develop such a framework to explicitly estimate the joint likelihood for discrete and continuous characters. Specifically, our model combines the probability of observing the continuous character under a generalized OU process with the probability of the discrete character under a hidden Markov model, linked by a shared underlying regime. We use simulation studies to demonstrate that this approach, hOUwie, can accurately evaluate parameter values across a broad set of models. We then apply our model to test whether fleshy and dry fruits of Ericaceae lineages are correlated with their climatic niche evolution as represented by the aridity index. Consistent with expectations, we find that the climatic niche of lineages with fleshy fruits is more conserved while lineages with dry fruits have higher rates of climatic niche evolution and a more humid climatic optimum.

— To date, no comprehensive phylogenetic analyses have been conducted in Orobanchaceae that include both a wide sampling of genera and a large sampling of species. In addition, a lack of fossil evidence in the clade precludes the use of primary fossil calibrations for divergence time estimation, preventing the establishment of a comprehensive temporal framework for use in macroevolutionary studies. Here, we use a recently developed set of tools for synthesizing publicly available data, apply these to reconstruct a comprehensive timetree for Orobanchaceae, and then investigate diversification dynamics in this clade of mostly parasitic plants using two model based methods. The assembled supermatrix included more than 900 species, representing approximately 40% of the known species diversity of the family, and the resulting phylogeny largely confirmed relationships revealed in earlier studies; however, we identified ten non-monophyletic genera that will require focused systematic attention to resolve. Diversification rate analyses found substantial support for character-dependent diversification, with elevated rates in hemiparasitic clades, and evidence for a number of speciation rate changes throughout the tree that are likely linked to other traits. Importantly, our multi-state HiSSE (Hidden State Speciation and Extinction) analysis revealed that transitions to a parasitic lifestyle only occur when there is a prior transition in an unobserved precursor state. For Orobanchaceae, our study provides a new comprehensive framework for the clade that can serve as a stepping-stone for future macroevolutionary studies.

SummaryThe evolution of annual or perennial strategies in flowering plants may depend on a broad array of temperature and precipitation variables. Previously documented correlations between life history strategy and climate appear to be clade-specific and fail to consider the coevolution of climatic niches and life history strategies.Here we combine annual and perennial life history data with geographic distribution for 9,939 flowering plant species and utilize a recently developed method that accounts for the joint evolution of continuous and discrete traits to evaluate two hypotheses: (1) annuals tend to evolve in highly seasonal regions prone to extreme heat and drought, and (2) annuals tend to have faster rates of climatic niche evolution than perennials.We find temperature, particularly the maximum temperature of the warmest month, is the most consistent climatic factor influencing life history evolution in flowering plants. Unexpectedly, we find that the rates of climatic niche evolution are faster in perennials than in annual lineages.We propose that annuals are consistently favored in areas prone to extreme heat due to their ability to escape heat stress as seeds, but they tend to be outcompeted by perennials in regions where extreme heat is uncommon or nonexistent.

The fossilized birth–death (FBD) model is a naturally appealing way of directly incorporating fossil information when estimating diversification rates. However, an important yet often overlooked property of the original FBD derivation is that it distinguishes between two types of sampled lineages. Here, we first discuss and demonstrate the impact of severely undersampling, and even not including fossils that represent samples of lineages that also had sampled descendants. We then explore the benefits of including fossils, generally, by implementing and then testing two types of FBD models, including one that converts a fossil set into stratigraphic ranges, in more complex likelihood-based models that assume multiple rate classes across the tree. Under various simulation scenarios, including a scenario that exists far outside the set of models we evaluated, including fossils rarely outperform analyses that exclude them altogether. At best, the inclusion of fossils improves precision but does not influence bias. Similarly, we found that converting the fossil set to stratigraphic ranges, which is one way to remedy the effects of undercounting the number of k-type fossils, results in turnover rates and extinction fraction estimates that are generally underestimated. Although fossils remain essential for understanding diversification through time, in the specific case of understanding diversification given an existing, largely modern tree, they are not especially beneficial. [Fossilized birth–death; fossils; MiSSE; state speciation extinction; stratigraphic ranges; turnover rate.]

Hidden Markov models (HMM) have emerged as an important tool for understanding the evolution of characters that take on discrete states. Their flexibility and biological sensibility make them appealing for many phylogenetic comparative applications.Previously available packages placed unnecessary limits on the number of observed and hidden states that can be considered when estimating transition rates and inferring ancestral states on a phylogeny.To address these issues, we expanded the capabilities of the R package corHMM to handle n-state and n-character problems and provide users with a streamlined set of functions to create custom HMMs for any biological question of arbitrary complexity.We show that increasing the number of observed states increases the accuracy of ancestral state reconstruction. We also explore the conditions for when an HMM is most effective, finding that an HMM is an appropriate model when the degree of rate heterogeneity is moderate to high.Finally, we demonstrate the importance of these generalizations by reconstructing the phyllotaxy of the ancestral angiosperm flower. Partially contradicting previous results, we find the most likely state to be a whorled perianth, whorled androecium, whorled gynoecium. The difference between our analysis and previous studies was that our modeling explicitly allowed for the correlated evolution of several flower characters.

Ultraconserved elements (UCEs) are stretches of hundreds of nucleotides with highly conserved cores flanked by variable regions. Although the selective forces responsible for the preservation of UCEs are unknown, they are nonetheless believed to contain phylogenetically meaningful information from deep to shallow divergence events. Phylogenetic applications of UCEs assume the same degree of rate heterogeneity applies across the entire locus, including variable flanking regions. We present a Wright–Fisher model of selection on nucleotides (SelON) which includes the effects of mutation, drift, and spatially varying, stabilizing selection for an optimal nucleotide sequence. The SelON model assumes the strength of stabilizing selection follows a position-dependent Gaussian function whose exact shape can vary between UCEs. We evaluate SelON by comparing its performance to a simpler and spatially invariant GTR+Γ model using an empirical data set of 400 vertebrate UCEs used to determine the phylogenetic position of turtles. We observe much improvement in model fit of SelON over the GTR+Γ model, and support for turtles as sister to lepidosaurs. Overall, the UCE-specific parameters SelON estimates provide a compact way of quantifying the strength and variation in selection within and across UCEs. SelON can also be extended to include more realistic mapping functions between sequence and stabilizing selection as well as allow for greater levels of rate heterogeneity. By more explicitly modeling the nature of selection on UCEs, SelON and similar approaches can be used to better understand the biological mechanisms responsible for their preservation across highly divergent taxa and long evolutionary time scales.

The correlation between two characters is often interpreted as evidence that there exists a significant and biologically important relationship between them. However, Maddison and FitzJohn (in The unsolved challenge to phylogenetic correlation tests for categorical characters. Syst. Biol. 2015;64:127–136) recently pointed out that evidence of correlated evolution between two categorical characters is often spurious, particularly, when the dependent relationship stems from a single replicate deep in time. Here we will show that there may, in fact, be a statistical solution to the problem posed by Maddison and FitzJohn naturally embedded within the expanded model space afforded by the hidden Markov model (HMM) framework. We demonstrate that the problem of single unreplicated evolutionary events manifests itself as rate heterogeneity within our models and that this is the source of the false correlation. Therefore, we argue that this problem is better understood as model misspecification rather than a failure of comparative methods to account for phylogenetic pseudoreplication. We utilize HMMs to develop a multirate independent model which, when implemented, drastically reduces support for correlation. The problem itself extends beyond categorical character evolution, but we believe that the practical solution presented here may lend itself to future extensions in other areas of comparative biology. [Macroevolution; model adequacy; phylogenetic comparative methods; rate heterogeneity].

Estimates of diversification rates at the tips of a phylogeny provide a flexible approach for correlation analyses with multiple traits and to map diversification rates in space, while also avoiding the uncertainty of deep time rate reconstructions. Available methods for tip rate estimation make different assumptions, and thus their accuracy usually depends on characteristics of the underlying model generating the tree. Here we introduce MiSSE, a trait-free, state-dependent speciation and extinction approach that can be used to estimate varying speciation, extinction, net-diversification, turnover rates, and extinction fraction at the tips of the tree. We compare the accuracy of tip rates inferred by MiSSE against similar methods and demonstrate that, due to certain characteristics of the model, the error is generally low across a broad range of speciation and extinction scenarios. MiSSE can be used alongside regular phylogenetic comparative methods in trait related diversification hypotheses, and we also describe a simple correction to avoid pseudoreplication from sister tips in analyses of independent contrasts. Finally, we demonstrate the capabilities of MiSSE, with a renewed focus on classic comparative methods, to examine correlation between plant height and turnover rates in eucalypts, a species-rich lineage of flowering plants.

Geophytes, plants with buds on underground structures, are found throughout the plant tree of life. These below ground structures allow plants to inhabit highly seasonal and disturbance-prone environments across ecosystems. Past researchers have hypothesised that the bulbous, cormous and tuberous habits promote diversification, but this had yet to be tested. Using a comprehensive monocot data set of almost 13 000 taxa, we investigated the effects of the geophytic habit on diversification using both state-dependent and state-independent models. We found that geophytes exhibit increased rates of diversification relative to nongeophytes. State-dependent analyses recovered higher yet similar rates of diversification for bulbous, cormous and tuberous taxa compared with rhizomatous and nongeophytic taxa. However, the state-independent model returned no difference in rates among the different traits. Geophytism shows higher rates of diversification relative to nongeophytes but we found little support for the hypothesis that the evolution of the bulb, corm or tuber appears to provide a diversification increase relative to rhizomatous and nongeophytic taxa. Our broad-scale analysis highlights the overall evolutionary importance of the geophytic habit (i.e. belowground bud placement). However, our results also suggest that belowground morphological diversity alone cannot explain this rate increase. In order to further test the evolutionary significance of these underground structures, future studies should consider these in combination with other biotic and abiotic factors.

Premise Geophytes-plants that typically possess a bulb, corm, tuber, and/or rhizome-have long captured the attention of hobbyists and researchers. However, despite the economic and evolutionary importance of these traits, the potential drivers of their morphological diversity remain unknown. Using a comprehensive phylogeny of monocots, we test for correlations between climate and geophyte growth form to better understand why we observe such a diversity of underground traits in geophytes. Understanding the evolutionary factors promoting independent origins of these potentially adaptive organs will lend insights into how plants adapt to environmental hardships. Methods Using a comprehensive phylogeny incorporated with global occurrence and climate data for the monocots, we investigated whether climatic patterns could explain differences between geophytes and non-geophytes, as well as differences among bulbous, cormous, tuberous, rhizomatous, and non-geophytic taxa. We used phylogenetically-informed ANOVAs, MANOVAs, and PCAs to test differences in climatic variables between the different growth forms. Results Geophytes inhabit cooler, drier, and more thermally variable climates compared to non-geophytes. Although some underground traits (i.e., bulb, corm, and tuber) appear to inhabit particular niches, a result supported by strong phylogenetic signal, our data has limited evidence for an overall role of climate in the evolution of these traits. However, temperature may be a driving force in rhizome evolution, as well as the evolution of taxa which we considered here as non-geophytic (e.g., trees, epiphytes, etc.). Conclusions While precipitation patterns have played a role in the evolution of geophytism, our results suggest that temperature should be more strongly considered as a contributing factor promoting the evolution of belowground bud placement, specifically in rhizomatous and non-geophytic taxa. Bulbous, cormous, and tuberous taxa need closer examination of other mechanisms, such as anatomical constraints or genetic controls, in order to begin to understand the causes behind the evolution of their underground morphology.

We present a new phylogenetic approach, selection on amino acids and codons (SelAC), whose substitution rates are based on a nested model linking protein expression to population genetics. Unlike simpler codon models that assume a single substitution matrix for all sites, our model more realistically represents the evolution of protein-coding DNA under the assumption of consistent, stabilizing selection using a cost-benefit approach. This cost–benefit approach allows us to generate a set of 20 optimal amino acid-specific matrix families using just a handful of parameters and naturally links the strength of stabilizing selection to protein synthesis levels, which we can estimate. Using a yeast data set of 100 orthologs for 6 taxa, we find SelAC fits the data much better than popular models by 104–105 Akike information criterion units adjusted for small sample bias. Our results also indicated that nested, mechanistic models better predict observed data patterns highlighting the improvement in biological realism in amino acid sequence evolution that our model provides. Additional parameters estimated by SelAC indicate that a large amount of nonphylogenetic, but biologically meaningful, information can be inferred from existing data. For example, SelAC prediction of gene-specific protein synthesis rates correlates well with both empirical (r=0.33–0.48) and other theoretical predictions (r=0.45–0.64) for multiple yeast species. SelAC also provides estimates of the optimal amino acid at each site. Finally, because SelAC is a nested approach based on clearly stated biological assumptions, future modifications, such as including shifts in the optimal amino acid sequence within or across lineages, are possible.

In 1974, G. Ledyard Stebbins provided a metaphor illustrating how spatial gradients of biodiversity observed today are by-products of the way environment-population interactions drive species diversification through time. We revisit the narrative behind Stebbins's "cradles" and "museums" of biodiversity to debate two points. First, the usual high-speciation versus low-extinction and tropical versus temperate dichotomies are oversimplifications of the original metaphor and may obscure how gradients of diversity are formed. Second, the way in which we use modern gradients of biodiversity to interpret the potential historical processes that generated them are often still biased by the reasons that motivated Stebbins to propose his original metaphor. Specifically, the field has not yet abandoned the idea that species-rich areas and "basal lineages" indicate centers of origin, nor has it fully appreciated the role of traits as regulators of environment-population dynamics. We acknowledge that the terms "cradles" and "museums" are popular in the literature and that terminologies can evolve with the requirements of the field. However, we also argue that the concepts of cradles and museums have outlived their utility in studies of biogeography and macroevolution and should be replaced by discussions of actual processes at play.

Ultraconserved elements (UCEs) are stretches of hundreds of nucleotides with highly conserved cores flanked by variable regions. Although the selective forces responsible for the preservation of UCEs are unknown, they are nonetheless believed to contain phylogenetically meaningful information from deep to shallow divergence events. Phylogenetic applications of UCEs assume the same degree of rate heterogeneity applies across the entire locus, including variable flanking regions. We present a Wright-Fisher model of selection on nucleotides (SelON) which includes the effects of mutation, drift, and spatially varying, stabilizing selection for an optimal nucleotide sequence. The SelON model assumes the strength of stabilizing selection follows a position dependent Gaussian function whose exact shape can vary between UCEs. We evaluate SelON by comparing its performance to a simpler and spatially invariant GTR+Γ model using an empirical dataset of 400 vertebrate UCEs used to determine the phylogenetic position of turtles. We observe much improvement in model fit of SelON over the GTR+Γ model, and support for turtles as sister to lepidosaurs. Overall, the UCE specific parameters SelON estimates provide a compact way of quantifying the strength and variation in selection within and across UCEs. SelON can also be extended to include more realistic mapping functions between sequence and stabilizing selection as well as allow for greater levels of rate heterogeneity. By more explicitly modeling the nature of selection on UCEs, SelON and similar approaches can be used to better understand the biological mechanisms responsible for their preservation across highly divergent taxa and long evolutionary time scales.

Phenotypic sequences are a type of multivariate trait organized structurally, such as teeth distributed along the dental arch, or temporally, such as the stages of an ontogenetic series. However, unlike other multivariate traits, the elements of a phenotypic sequence are arranged along a vector, which allows for distinct evolutionary patterns between neighboring and distant positions. In fact, sequence traits share many characteristics with molecular sequences. We implement an approach to estimate rates of trait evolution that explicitly incorporates the sequence organization of traits. We apply models to study the temporal pattern evolution of cricket calling songs. We test whether songs show autocorrelation of rates (i.e., neighboring positions along a phenotypic sequence have correlated rates of evolution), or if they are best described by rate variation independent of sequence position. Our results show that models perform well when used with sequence phenotypes even under small sample sizes. We also show that silent regions of the songs evolve faster than chirp regions, which suggests that macroevolutionary changes are faster when associated with axes of variation less constrained by multiple sources of selection. Our approach is flexible and can be applied to any multivariate trait with units organized in a sequence-like structure.

Summary Patterns of species richness are commonly linked to life history strategies. In diatoms, an exceptionally diverse lineage of photosynthetic heterokonts important for global photosynthesis and burial of atmospheric carbon, lineages with different locomotory and reproductive traits differ dramatically in species richness, but any potential association between life history strategy and diversification has not been tested in a phylogenetic framework.We constructed a time‐calibrated, 11‐gene, 1151‐taxon phylogeny of diatoms – the most inclusive diatom species tree to date. We used this phylogeny, together with a comprehensive inventory of first–last occurrences of Cenozoic fossil diatoms, to estimate ranges of expected species richness, diversification and its variation through time and across lineages.Diversification rates varied with life history traits. Although anisogamous lineages diversified faster than oogamous ones, this increase was restricted to a nested clade with active motility in the vegetative cells.We propose that the evolution of motility in vegetative cells, following an earlier transition from oogamy to anisogamy, facilitated outcrossing and improved utilization of habitat complexity, ultimately leading to enhanced opportunity for adaptive divergence across a variety of novel habitats. Together, these contributed to a species radiation that gave rise to the majority of present‐day diatom diversity.

Premise of the study The study of very large and very old clades holds the promise of greater insights into evolution across the tree of life. However, there has been a fair amount of criticism regarding the interpretations and quality of studies to date, with some suggesting that detailed studies carried out on smaller, tractable scales should be preferred over the increasingly grand syntheses of these data. Methods We provided in detail our trials and tribulations of compiling a large, sparsely sampled matrix from GenBank data and inferring a well-supported, time-calibrated phylogeny of Campanulidae. We also used a simulation approach to assess tree quality and to study the value of using very large, comprehensive phylogenies in a comparative context. Key results A robust and well-supported phylogeny can be produced as long as automated procedures are supplemented with some human intervention. In the case of campanulids, the overall topology may be driven not only by particular genes, but also particular sequences for a gene. We also determined that estimates of divergence times should be fairly robust to issues related to clade-specific heterogeneity. Finally, we demonstrated how relying on results from smaller, younger clades are prone to produce biased interpretations of tropical to temperate evolution across campanulids as a whole. Conclusions While we were both surprised and encouraged by the robust and fairly well-resolved, comprehensive phylogeny of campanulids, challenges still remain. Nevertheless, large phylogenies are inherently valuable in a comparative context if only to attenuate the issue of ascertainment bias.

Summary Seed size varies tremendously in plants and its evolution is influenced by multiple ecological and biological factors that are difficult to disentangle. In this study, we focus on understanding the role of seed dispersal by animals in the evolution of seed size in conifers, the most diverse extant nonflowering seed plant group. Relationships among seed size, dispersal syndrome, climate and cone morphology were analyzed across conifers using quantitative models of character evolution and phylogenetic regression techniques. Dispersal syndrome is a more consistent predictor of seed size within major extant conifer clades than climate. Seeds are generally larger in animal-dispersed than wind-dispersed species, and particular cone morphologies are consistently associated with specific ranges in seed size. Seed size and cone morphology evolve in a correlated manner in many animal-dispersed conifers, following a trade-off that minimizes the total size of the dispersal unit. These relationships are also present in other nonflowering seed plant groups, and have been important in the evolution of seeds and cones at least over the Cenozoic and perhaps over much of the later Mesozoic.

Many clades that span the marine-freshwater boundary are disproportionately more diverse in the younger, shorter-lived, and scarcer freshwater environments than they are in the marine realm. This disparity is thought to be related to differences in diversification rates between marine and freshwater lineages. However, marine and freshwaters are not ecologically homogeneous, so the study of diversification across the salinity divide should also account for other potentially interacting variables. In diatoms, freshwater and substrate-associated (benthic) lineages are several-fold more diverse than their marine and suspended (planktonic) counterparts. These imbalances provide an excellent system to understand whether these variables interact with diversification. Using multistate hidden-state speciation and extinction models we found that freshwater lineages diversify faster than marine lineages regardless of whether they inhabit the plankton or the benthos. Freshwater lineages also had higher turnover rates (speciation + extinction), suggesting that habitat transitions impact speciation and extinction rates jointly. The plankton-benthos contrast was also consistent with state-dependent diversification, but with modest differences in diversification and turnover rates. Asymmetric, and bidirectional transitions rejected hypotheses about the plankton and freshwaters as absorbing, inescapable habitats. Our results further suggest that the high turnover rate of freshwater diatoms is related to high turnover of freshwater systems themselves.

The state-dependent speciation and extinction models (SSE) have recently been criticized due to their high rates of "false positive" results and many researchers have advocated avoiding SSE models in favor of other "non-parametric" or "semi-parametric" approaches. The hidden Markov modeling (HMM) approach provides a partial solution to the issues of model adequacy detected with SSE models. The inclusion of "hidden states" can account for rate heterogeneity observed in empirical phylogenies and allows detection of true signals of state-dependent diversification or diversification shifts independent of the trait of interest. However, the adoption of HMM into other classes of SSE models has been hampered by the interpretational challenges of what exactly a "hidden state" represents, which we clarify herein. We show that HMM models in combination with a model-averaging approach naturally account for hidden traits when examining the meaningful impact of a suspected "driver" of diversification. We also extend the HMM to the geographic state-dependent speciation and extinction (GeoSSE) model. We test the efficacy of our "GeoHiSSE" extension with both simulations and an empirical data set. On the whole, we show that hidden states are a general framework that can generally distinguish heterogeneous effects of diversification attributed to a focal character.

The state-dependent speciation and extinction (SSE) models have recently been criticized due to their high rates of "false positive" results. Many researchers have advocated avoiding SSE models in favor of other "nonparametric" or "semiparametric" approaches. The hidden Markov modeling (HMM) approach provides a partial solution to the issues of model adequacy detected with SSE models. The inclusion of "hidden states" can account for rate heterogeneity observed in empirical phylogenies and allows for reliable detection of state-dependent diversification or diversification shifts independent of the trait of interest. However, the adoption of HMM has been hampered by the interpretational challenges of what exactly a "hidden state" represents, which we clarify herein. We show that HMMs in combination with a model-averaging approach naturally account for hidden traits when examining the meaningful impact of a suspected "driver" of diversification. We also extend the HMM to the geographic state-dependent speciation and extinction (GeoSSE) model. We test the efficacy of our "GeoHiSSE" extension with both simulations and an empirical dataset. On the whole, we show that hidden states are a general framework that can distinguish heterogeneous effects of diversification attributed to a focal character.

Metabarcoding has offered unprecedented insights into microbial diversity. In many studies, short DNA sequences are binned into consecutively lower Linnaean ranks, and ranked groups (e.g., genera) are the units of biodiversity analyses. These analyses assume that Linnaean ranks are biologically meaningful and that identically ranked groups are comparable. We used a metabarcode dataset for marine planktonic diatoms to illustrate the limits of this approach. We found that the 20 most abundant marine planktonic diatom genera ranged in age from 4 to 134 million years, indicating the non-equivalence of genera because some have had more time to diversify than others. However, species richness was largely independent of genus age, suggesting that disparities in species richness among genera were better explained by variation in rates of speciation and extinction. Taxonomic classifications often do not reflect phylogeny, so genus-level analyses can include phylogenetically nested genera, further confounding rank-based analyses. These results underscore the indispensable role of phylogeny in understanding patterns of microbial diversity.

Using a broadly sampled, time-calibrated phylogeny of Cyanobacteria and photosynthetic eukaryotes, Sanchez-Baracaldo et al. (1) report that the most-recent common ancestor (MRCA) of Archaeplastida likely inhabited a low-salinity (freshwater) habitat, providing an advance on a longstanding debate about the ecological context for the origin of plastids (2). The freshwater ancestry for Cyanobacteria and Archaeplastida was based on reconstructions that assumed equal transition rates among marine, brackish, and freshwater habitats (1), which likely oversimplified the 2.5-billion-year history of these groups. We relaxed the assumption of a single transition rate by fitting a model with additional parameters for independent transition rates among marine, brackish, and freshwater habitats. This model provided a … [↵][1]1To whom correspondence should be addressed. Email: tnakov{at}uark.edu. [1]: #xref-corresp-1-1

Integration influences patterns of trait evolution, but the relationship between these patterns and the degree of trait integration is not well understood. To explore this further, we study a specialized pollination mechanism in conifers whose traits are linked through function but not development. This mechanism depends on interactions among three characters: pollen that is buoyant, ovules that face downward at pollination, and the production of a liquid droplet that buoyant grains float through to enter the ovule. We use a well-sampled phylogeny of conifers to test correlated evolution among these characters and specific sequences of character change. Using likelihood models of character evolution, we find that pollen morphology and ovule characters evolve in a concerted manner, where the flotation mechanism breaks down irreversibly following changes in orientation or drop production. The breakdown of this functional constraint, which may be facilitated by the lack of developmental integration among the constituent traits, is associated with increased trait variation and more diverse pollination strategies. Although this functional "release" increases diversity in some ways, the irreversible way in which the flotation mechanism is lost may eventually result in its complete disappearance from seed plant reproductive biology.

Hundreds of studies have been dedicated to estimating speciation and extinction from phylogenies of extant species. Although it has long been known that estimates of extinction rates using trees of extant organisms are often uncertain, an influential paper by Rabosky (2010) suggested that when birth rates vary continuously across the tree, estimates of the extinction fraction (i.e., extinction rate/speciation rate) will appear strongly bimodal, with a peak suggesting no extinction and a peak implying speciation and extinction rates are approaching equality. On the basis of these results, and the realistic nature of this form of rate variation, it is now generally assumed by many practitioners that extinction cannot be understood from molecular phylogenies alone. Here, we reevaluated and extended the analyses of Rabosky (2010) and come to the opposite conclusion-namely, that it is possible to estimate extinction from molecular phylogenies, even with model violations due to heritable variation in diversification rate. Note that while it may be tempting to interpret our study as advocating the application of simple birth-death models, our goal here is to show how a particular model violation does not necessitate the abandonment of an entire field: use prudent caution, but do not abandon all hope.

One of the most striking biodiversity patterns is the uneven distribution of marine species richness, with species diversity in the Indo-Australian Archipelago (IAA) exceeding all other areas. However, the IAA formed fairly recently, and marine biodiversity hotspots have shifted across nearly half the globe since the Paleogene. Understanding how lineages have responded to shifting biodiversity hotspots represents a necessary historic perspective on the formation and maintenance of global marine biodiversity. Such evolutionary inferences are often challenged by a lack of fossil evidence that provide insights into historic patterns of abundance and diversity. The greatest diversity of squirrelfishes and soldierfishes (Holocentridae) is in the IAA, yet these fishes also represent some of the most numerous fossil taxa in deposits of the former West Tethyan biodiversity hotspot. We reconstruct the pattern of holocentrid range evolution using time-calibrated phylogenies that include most living species and several fossil lineages, demonstrating the importance of including fossil species as terminal taxa in ancestral area reconstructions. Holocentrids exhibit increased range fragmentation following the West Tethyan hotspot collapse. However, rather than originating within the emerging IAA hotspot, the IAA has acted as a reservoir for holocentrid diversity that originated in adjacent regions over deep evolutionary time scales.

Here we test whether genome size is a predictor of pollen size. If it were, inferences of ancient genome size would be possible using the abundant paleo-palynolgical record. We performed regression analyses across 464 species of pollen width and genome size. We found a significant positive trend. However, regression analysis using phylogentically independent contrasts did not support the correlated evolution of these traits. Instead, a large split between angiosperms and gymnosperms for both pollen width and genome size was revealed. Sister taxa were not more likely to show a positive contrast when compared to deeper nodes. However, significantly more congeneric species had a positive trend than expected by chance. These results may reflect the strong selection pressure for pollen to be small. Also, because pollen grains are not metabolically active when measured, their biology is different than other cells which have been shown to be strongly related to genome size, such as guard cells. Our findings contrast with previously published research. It was our hope that pollen size could be used as a proxy for inferring the genome size of ancient species. However, our results suggest pollen is not a good candidate for such endeavors.

Metabarcoding has offered unprecedented insights into microbial diversity. In many studies, short DNA sequences are binned into consecutively higher Linnaean ranks, and ranked groups (e.g., genera) are the units of biodiversity analyses. These analyses assume that Linnaean ranks are biologically meaningful and that identically ranked groups are comparable. We used a meta-barcode dataset for marine planktonic diatoms to illustrate the limits of this approach. We found that the 20 most abundant marine planktonic diatom genera ranged in age from 4 to 134 million years, indicating the non-equivalence of genera because some had more time to diversify than others. Still, species richness was only weakly correlated with genus age, highlighting variation in rates of speciation and/or extinction. Taxonomic classifications often do not reflect phylogeny, so genus-level analyses can include phylogenetically nested genera, further confounding rank-based analyses. These results underscore the indispensable role of phylogeny in understanding patterns of microbial diversity.

We present a new phylogenetic approach SelAC (Selection on Amino acids and Codons), whose substitution rates are based on a nested model linking protein expression to population genetics. Unlike simpler codon models which assume a single substitution matrix for all sites, our model more realistically represents the evolution of protein coding DNA under the assumption of consistent, stabilizing selection using cost-benefit approach. This cost-benefit approach allows us generate a set of 20 optimal amino acid specific matrix families using just a handful of parameters and naturally links the strength of stabilizing selection to protein synthesis levels, which we can estimate. Using a yeast dataset of 100 orthologs for 6 taxa, we find SelAC fits the data much better than popular models by 104–105AICc units. Our results indicate there is great potential for more accurate inference of phylogenetic trees and branch lengths from already existing data through the use of nested, mechanistic models. Additional parameters estimated by SelAC indicate that a large amount of non-phylogenetic, but biologically meaningful, information can be inferred from exisiting data. For example, SelAC prediction of gene specific protein synthesis rates correlates well with both empirical (r=0.33−0.48) and other theoretical predictions (r=0.45−0.64) for multiple yeast species. SelAC also provides estimates of the optimal amino acid at each site. Finally, because SelAC is a nested approach based on clearly stated biological assumptions, future modifications, such as including shifts in the optimal amino acid sequence within or across lineages, are possible.

Summary The relationship between branch diameter and leaf size has been widely used to understand how vegetative resources are allocated in plants. Branching architecture influences reproductive allocation as well, but fewer studies have explored this relationship at broad phylogenetic or ecological scales. In this study, we tested whether pollen-producing and seed-producing cone size scales with branch diameter in conifers, a diverse and globally distributed lineage of nonflowering seed plants. Branch diameter and cone size were analyzed using multiple regression models and evolutionary models of trait evolution for a data set of 293 extant conifer species within an explicit phylogenetic framework. Branch diameter is a strong predictor of cone size across conifer species, particularly for pollen cones and dry seed cones. However, these relationships are complex in detail because leaf morphology and seed dispersal biology influence the specific ways in which they are expressed. The ubiquity and strength of these scaling relationships across conifers suggest that reproductive and vegetative morphologies are coupled in the group, and it is therefore difficult to disentangle the evolution of cone size from the evolution of branching architecture.

The alteration in palaeodrainage river connections has shaped patterns of speciation, genetic diversity and the geographical distribution of the species-rich freshwater fauna of North America. The integration of ancestral range reconstruction methods and divergence time estimates provides an opportunity to infer palaeodrainage connectivity and test alternative palaeodrainage hypotheses. Members of the Orangethroat Darter clade, Ceasia, are endemic to southeastern North America and occur north and south of the Pleistocene glacial front, a distributional pattern that makes this clade of closely related species an ideal system to investigate the number and location of glacial refugia and compare alternative hypotheses regarding the proposed evolution of the Teays-Mahomet palaeodrainage. This study utilized time-calibrated mitochondrial and nuclear gene phylogenies and present-day geographical distributions to investigate hypothesized Teays-Mahomet River connections through time using a dispersal-extinction-cladogenesis (DEC) framework. Results of DEC ancestral area reconstructions indicate that the Teays-Mahomet River was a key dispersal route between disjunct highland regions connecting the Mississippi River tributaries to the Old-Ohio Drainage minimally at two separate occasions during the Pleistocene. There was a dynamic interplay between palaeodrainage connections through time and postglacial range expansion from three glacial refugia that shaped the current genetic structure and geographical distributions of the species that comprise Ceasia.

Most species have evolved adaptations to reduce the chances of predation. In many cases, adaptations to coexist with one predator generate tradeoffs in the ability to live with other predators. Consequently, the ability to live with one predator may limit the geographic distributions of species, such that adaptive evolution to coexist with novel predators may facilitate range shifts. In a case study with Enallagma damselflies, we used a comparative phylogenetic approach to test the hypothesis that adaptive evolution to live with a novel predator facilitates range size shifts. Our results suggest that the evolution of Enallagma shifting from living in ancestral lakes with fish as top predators, to living in lakes with dragonflies as predators, may have facilitated an increase in their range sizes. This increased range size likely arose because lakes with dragonflies were widespread, but unavailable as a habitat throughout much of the evolutionary history of Enallagma because they were historically maladapted to coexist with dragonfly predators. Additionally, the traits that have evolved as defenses against dragonflies also likely enhanced damselfly dispersal abilities. While many factors underlie the evolutionary history of species ranges, these results suggest a role for the evolution of predator-prey interactions.

A correlation between genome size and cell volume has been observed across diverse assemblages of eukaryotes. We examined this relationship in diatoms (Bacillariophyceae), a phylum in which cell volume is of critical ecological and biogeochemical importance. In addition to testing whether there is a predictive relationship across extant species, we tested whether evolutionary divergences in genome size were correlated with evolutionary divergences in cell size (using independent contrasts). We estimated total DNA content for 16 diatom species using a flow cytometer and estimated cell volumes using critical dimensions with scaling equations. Our independent contrast analyses indicated a significant correlated evolution between genome size and cell volume. We then explored the evolutionary and ecological implications of this evolutionary relationship. Diatom cell volume is an important component of the global carbon cycle; therefore, understanding the mechanisms that drive diatom genome evolution has both evolutionary and ecological importance.

Climate change has the potential to alter the genetic diversity of plant populations with consequences for community dynamics and ecosystem processes. Recent research focused on changes in climatic means has found evidence of decreased precipitation amounts reducing genetic diversity. However, increased variability in climatic regimes is also predicted with climate change, but the effects of this aspect of climate change on genetic diversity have yet to be investigated. After 10 years of experimentally increased intra-annual variability in growing season precipitation regimes, we report that the number of genotypes of the dominant C(4) grass, Andropogon gerardii Vitman, has been significantly reduced in native tallgrass prairie compared with unmanipulated prairie. However, individuals showed a different pattern of genomic similarity with increased precipitation variability resulting in greater genome dissimilarity among individuals when compared to unmanipulated prairie. Further, we found that genomic dissimilarity was positively correlated with aboveground productivity in this system. The increased genomic dissimilarity among individuals in the altered treatment alongside evidence for a positive correlation of genomic dissimilarity with phenotypic variation suggests ecological sorting of genotypes may be occurring via niche differentiation. Overall, we found effects of more variable precipitation regimes on population-level genetic diversity were complex, emphasizing the need to look beyond genotype numbers for understanding the impacts of climate change on genetic diversity. Recognition that future climate change may alter aspects of genetic diversity in different ways suggests possible mechanisms by which plant populations may be able to retain a diversity of traits in the face of declining biodiversity.

The demand for knowledge about the tree of life is steadily rising in ecology and other fields, but bioinformatic resources designed to meet these needs remain poorly developed. Ecologists pursuing phylogenetic insights into the organization of communities have come to rely on relatively conservative reference trees that, in general, are poorly resolved and documented. New methods for inferring very large trees by mining data from DNA sequence repositories will undoubtedly be useful in community phylogenetics, but are not without limitations. Here we argue that the collective phylogenetic knowledge embodied in the literature of systematics is a valuable resource that can be tapped in assembling synthetic trees. Assembling a composite ''literature-based'' tree by the judicious grafting of clades is one way to achieve a synthesis of current knowledge, and could, under some circumstances, better represent ''what we know'' about phylogenetic relationships than results obtained from automated pipelines. We describe an approach and new software for storing and annotating trees from published studies and grafting clades together in a documented and repeatable manner. Using this agglomerative approach, we are in the process of assembling a literature- based tree for land plants, which presently contains 14 423 species from over 259 sources. For this strategy to be maximally effective, improvements in digital infrastructure are needed to capture and deploy advances in phylogenetic knowledge as they are published.

Strong latitudinal patterns in leaf form are well documented in floristic comparisons and palaeobotanical studies. However, there is little agreement about their functional significance; in fact, it is still unknown to what degree these patterns were generated by repeated evolutionary adaptation. We analysed leaf form in the woody angiosperm clade Viburnum (Adoxaceae) and document evolutionarily correlated shifts in leafing habit, leaf margin morphology, leaf shape and climate. Multiple independent shifts between tropical and temperate forest habitats have repeatedly been accompanied by a change between evergreen, elliptical leaves with entire margins and deciduous, more rounded leaves with toothed or lobed margins. These consistent shifts in Viburnum support repeated evolutionary adaptation as a major determinant of the global correlation between leaf form and mean annual temperature. Our results provide a new theoretical grounding for the inference of past climates using fossil leaf assemblages.

There is an increasing interest in how genetic diversity may correlate with and influence community and ecosystem properties. Genetic diversity can be defined in multiple ways, and currently lacking in ecology is a consensus on how to measure genetic diversity. Here, we examine two broad classes of genetic diversity: genotype-based and genome-based measures. Genotype-based measures, such as genotypic richness, are more commonly used in ecological studies, and often it is assumed that as genotypic diversity increases, genomic diversity (the number of genetic polymorphisms and/or genomic dissimilarity among individuals) also increases. However, this assumption is rarely assessed. We tested this assumption by investigating correlations between genotype- and genome-based measures of diversity using two plant population genetic datasets: one observational with data collected at Konza Prairie, KS, and the other based on simulated populations with five levels of genotypic richness, a typical design of genetic diversity experiments. We found conflicting results for both datasets; we found a mismatch between genotypic and genomic diversity measures for the field data, but not the simulated data. Last, we tested the consequences of this mismatch and found that correlations between genetic diversity and community/ecosystem properties depended on metric used. Ultimately, we argue that genome-based measures should be included in future studies alongside genotypic-based measures because they capture a greater spectrum of genetic differences among individuals.

Tectonic processes drive megacycles of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration, c a , that force large fluctuations in global climate. With a period of several hundred million years, these megacycles have been linked to the evolution of vascular plants, but adaptation at the subcellular scale has been difficult to determine because fossils typically do not preserve this information. Here we show, after accounting for evolutionary relatedness using phylogenetic comparative methods, that plant nuclear genome size (measured as the haploid DNA amount) and the size of stomatal guard cells are correlated across a broad taxonomic range of extant species. This phylogenetic regression was used to estimate the mean genome size of fossil plants from the size of fossil stomata. For the last 400 Myr, spanning almost the full evolutionary history of vascular plants, we found a significant correlation between fossil plant genome size and c a , modelled independently using geochemical data. The correlation is consistent with selection for stomatal size and genome size by c a as plants adapted towards optimal leaf gas exchange under a changing CO 2 regime. Our findings point to the possibility that major episodes of change in c a throughout Earth history might have selected for changes in genome size, influencing plant diversification.

The selection of fossil data to use as calibration age priors in molecular divergence time estimates inherently links neontological methods with paleontological theory. However, few neontological studies have taken into account the possibility of a taphonomic bias in the fossil record when developing approaches to fossil calibration selection. The Sppil-Rongis effect may bias the first appearance of a lineage toward the recent causing most objective calibration selection approaches to erroneously exclude appropriate calibrations or to incorporate multiple calibrations that are too young to accurately represent the divergence times of target lineages. Using turtles as a case study, we develop a Bayesian extension to the fossil selection approach developed by Marshall (2008. A simple method for bracketing absolute divergence times on molecular phylogenies using multiple fossil calibrations points. Am. Nat. 171:726-742) that takes into account this taphonomic bias. Our method has the advantage of identifying calibrations that may bias age estimates to be too recent while incorporating uncertainty in phylogenetic parameter estimates such as tree topology and branch lengths. Additionally, this method is easily adapted to assess the consistency of potential calibrations to any one calibration in the candidate pool.

How will the emerging possibility of inferring ultra-large phylogenies influence our ability to identify shifts in diversification rate? For several large angiosperm clades (Angiospermae, Monocotyledonae, Orchidaceae, Poaceae, Eudicotyledonae, Fabaceae, and Asteraceae), we explore this issue by contrasting two approaches: (1) using small backbone trees with an inferred number of extant species assigned to each terminal clade and (2) using a mega-phylogeny of 55473 seed plant species represented in GenBank. The mega-phylogeny approach assumes that the sample of species in GenBank is at least roughly proportional to the actual species diversity of different lineages, as appears to be the case for many major angiosperm lineages. Using both approaches, we found that diversification rate shifts are not directly associated with the major named clades examined here, with the sole exception of Fabaceae in the GenBank mega-phylogeny. These agreements are encouraging and may support a generality about angiosperm evolution: major shifts in diversification may not be directly associated with major named clades, but rather with clades that are nested not far within these groups. An alternative explanation is that there have been increased extinction rates in early-diverging lineages within these clades. Based on our mega-phylogeny, the shifts in diversification appear to be distributed quite evenly throughout the angiosperms. Mega-phylogenetic studies of diversification hold great promise for revealing new patterns, but we will need to focus more attention on properly specifying null expectation.

Monocot genomic diversity includes striking variation at many levels. This paper compares various genomic characters (e.g., range of chromosome numbers and ploidy levels, occurrence of endopolyploidy, GC content, chromosome packaging and organization, genome size) between monocots and the remaining angiosperms to discern just how distinctive monocot genomes are. One of the most notable features of monocots is their wide range and diversity of genome sizes, including the species with the largest genome so far reported in plants. This genomic character is analysed in greater detail, within a phylogenetic context. By surveying available genome size and chromosome data it is apparent that different monocot orders follow distinctive modes of genome size and chromosome evolution. Further insights into genome size-evolution and dynamics were obtained using statistical modelling approaches to reconstruct the ancestral genome size at key nodes across the monocot phylogenetic tree. Such approaches reveal that while the ancestral genome size of all monocots was small ( pg), there have been several major increases and decreases during monocot evolution. In addition, notable increases in the rates of genome size-evolution were found in Asparagales and Poales compared with other monocot lineages.

Across angiosperms, variable rates of molecular substitution are linked with life-history attributes associated with woody and herbaceous growth forms. As the number of generations per unit time is correlated with molecular substitution rates, it is expected that rates of phenotypic evolution would also be influenced by differences in generation times. Here, we make the first broad-scale comparison of growth-form-dependent rates of niche evolution. We examined the climatic niches of species on large time-calibrated phylogenies of five angiosperm clades and found that woody lineages have accumulated fewer changes per million years in climatic niche space than related herbaceous lineages. Also, climate space explored by woody lineages is consistently smaller than sister lineages composed mainly of herbaceous taxa. This pattern is probably linked to differences in the rate of climatic niche evolution. These results have implications for niche conservatism; in particular, the role of niche conservatism in the distribution of plant biodiversity. The consistent differences in the rate of climatic niche evolution also emphasize the need to incorporate models of phenotypic evolution that allow for rate heterogeneity when examining large datasets.