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Background: Emerging evidence suggests that athletes and military personnel are at increased risk for lower extremity musculoskeletal injury after a concussion; however, the association between concussion and subsequent upper extremity (UE) musculoskeletal injury is unknown. Purpose: To prospectively examine the association between concussion and UE musculoskeletal injury risk within the first year after returning to unrestricted activity. Study Design: Cohort study; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: A total of 316 cases of concussion 42% (132/316 women) were observed among 5660 Concussion Assessment, Research and Education Consortium participants at the United States Military Academy from May 2015 to June 2018. Active injury surveillance within the cohort was conducted for 12 months after unrestricted return to activity to identify any incident cases of acute UE musculoskeletal injury. Injury surveillance during the follow-up period was also conducted for nonconcussed controls who were matched by sex and competitive sport level. Univariate and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios between concussed cases and nonconcussed controls for time to UE musculoskeletal injury. Results: During the surveillance period, 19.3% of concussed cases and 9.2% of nonconcussed controls sustained a UE injury. In the univariate model, concussed cases were 2.25 times (95% CI, 1.45-3.51) more likely to sustain a UE injury during the 12-month follow-up period when compared with the nonconcussed controls. In the multivariable model, adjusted for history of concussion, sport level, somatization, and history of UE injury, concussed cases were 1.84 times (95% CI, 1.10-3.07) more likely to sustain a UE injury during the surveillance period compared with nonconcussed controls. Sport level remained an independent risk factor for UE musculoskeletal injury; however, concussion history, somatization, and history of UE injury were not independent risk factors. Conclusion: Concussed cases were more than twice as likely to sustain an acute UE musculoskeletal injury within the first 12 months after unrestricted return to activity when compared with nonconcussed controls. The higher hazard of injury remained in the concussed group after adjusting for other potential risk factors.

Background: The Balance Error Scoring System (BESS) is commonly accepted as a valid measure of postural stability. However, reliability values have varied, and subtle changes undetectable with the human eye may exist postinjury. The inertial measurement unit in commercially available tablets has been used to quantify postural sway (instrumented Balance Error Scoring System [iBESS] volume). However, iBESS has not been validated in a military population, and the stability of the tests beyond 1 week is unknown. Hypothesis: iBESS volume is capable of objectively measuring postural sway during the traditional BESS. Study Design: Prospective repeated-measures study. Level of Evidence: Level 3. Methods: Eighty-three cadets (40.96% women; age 20.0 ± 1.44 years; height 68.7 ± 4.1 inches; weight 166.7 ± 30.2 lb) with no history of concussion or lower extremity injury agreed to participate. All participants completed the BESS at baseline and 6 months post baseline. During testing, a tablet equipped with an inertial measurement unit was positioned on the participant’s sacrum to capture postural sway. Results: Moderate to strong correlations were exhibited between baseline measurements for single-limb (SL)-firm ( r = 0.84; P < 0.01), tandem (TAN)-firm ( r = 0.85; P < 0.01), double-limb (DL)-foam ( r = 0.50; P < 0.01), SL-foam ( r = 0.59; P < 0.01), and TAN-foam ( r = 0.79; P < 0.01). Balance improved significantly at 6 months for SL-firm human-rated errors (Effect Size [ES] = 0.32) and for SL-firm (ES = 0.38), DL-foam (ES = 0.21), and SL-foam iBESS volume (ES = 0.35). Moderate to strong correlations were exhibited between human-rated and iBESS change scores for SL-firm ( r = 0.71; P < 0.01), TAN-firm ( r = 0.75; P < 0.01), and TAN-foam ( r = 0.71; P < 0.01), and a weak correlation was exhibited for DL-foam ( r = 0.29; P < 0.01) and SL-foam ( r = 0.40; P < 0.01). Conclusion: Moderate to strong correlations existed between human-rated BESS errors and iBESS volume at baseline and between change scores. In addition, iBESS volume may be more sensitive to balance changes than the human-rated BESS. Clinical Relevance: This evidence supports the use of iBESS volume as a valid measure of postural stability in military cadets. iBESS volume may provide clinicians with an objective and more sensitive measure of postural stability than the traditional human-rated BESS.

The purpose was to quantify the effect of an anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury on balance and jump-landing performance and bilateral asymmetries. Among 500 collegiate athletes who performed a reaching test and a double-leg counter-movement jump-landing test at baseline, 8 male and 6 female athletes suffered ACL injuries. In the follow-up, they performed the reaching test 3 and 6 months after ACL reconstruction (ACLR) and the jump-landing test 6 months after ACLR. Less reaching distances for the injured leg and increased reaching distance asymmetries were observed 3 and 6 months after ACLR compared to baseline. Less peak jumping and landing forces for the injured leg and increased jumping and landing force asymmetries were found 6 months after ACLR compared to baseline. The decreased performance of the injured leg and increased asymmetries may contribute to the high ACL re-injury rates. Baseline assessments may be considered for establishing an individual’s pre-injury performance.

Over the last decade, with emphasis on concussion awareness and potential long-term deficits, concussions have become a public health concern. Although common, concussions are complex in nature and often require a collaborative treatment approach across multiple disciplines. In an athletic setting, the Team Physician plays a critical leadership role in the organization, management, and provision of care for concussed athletes. However, leadership strategies for the provision of concussion care utilized by the Team Physician have not been adequately described. This manuscript intends to describe advanced planning for concussion management and highlight best practices for the provision of care for the concussed athlete, to assist the Team Physician in coordinating optimal care. Specific emphasis will be placed on outlining a concussion management protocol aligned with evidence-based best practices.

BackgroundPeople living with HIV (PLHIV) have an elevated risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) compared to their uninfected peers. Expanding statin use may help alleviate this burden. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of reducing the recommend statin initiation threshold for primary ASCVD prevention among PLHIV in Thailand.MethodsOur decision analytic microsimulation model randomly selected (with replacement) individuals from the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (data collected between 1/January/2013 and 1/September/2019). Direct medical costs and quality-adjusted life-years were assigned in annual cycles over a lifetime horizon and discounted at 3% per year. We assumed the Thai healthcare sector perspective. The study population included PLHIV aged 35–75 years, without ASCVD, and receiving antiretroviral therapy. Statin initiation thresholds evaluated were 10-year ASCVD risk ≥10% (control), ≥7.5% and ≥5%.ResultsA statin initiation threshold of ASCVD risk ≥7.5% resulted in accumulation of 0.015 additional quality-adjusted life-years compared with an ASCVD risk threshold ≥10%, at an extra cost of 3,539 Baht ($US113), giving an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of 239,000 Baht ($US7,670)/quality-adjusted life-year gained. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio comparing ASCVD risk ≥5% to ≥7.5% was 349,000 Baht ($US11,200)/quality-adjusted life-year gained. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of 160,000 Baht ($US5,135)/quality-adjusted life-year gained, a 30.8% reduction in the average cost of low/moderate statin therapy led to the ASCVD risk threshold ≥7.5% becoming cost-effective compared with current practice.ConclusionsReducing the recommended 10-year ASCVD risk threshold for statin initiation among PLHIV in Thailand would not currently be cost-effective. However, a lower threshold could become cost-effective with greater preference for cheaper statins.

To determine reference values for the Headache Impact Test-6 (HIT-6) in a young, physically active cohort and to examine the influence of sex, concussion history, headache history, and competitive sport level on HIT-6 scores.Cross-sectional.United States Service Academy.United States Service Academy cadets (N=2678) completed an HIT-6 questionnaire as part of their annual concussion baseline assessment. Cadets with a recent concussion were excluded from baseline testing.Not applicable.Reference values were calculated and stratified by sex, concussion history, headache history, and competitive sport level. Mann-Whitney U and Kruskal-Wallis tests were used to examine the effect of sex, concussion history, headache history, and competitive sport level on HIT-6 scores (P.05).Of the 3599 cadets baselined, 2687 cadets (23% female) agreed to participate in the study and completed the HIT-6. Female participants reported significantly worse HIT-6 scores compared with male participants both with (P.001) and without (P.001) a concussion history. In both sexes, participants with a headache history reported worse scores than those with no headache/concussion history and a concussion history (all P.005). Female cadets who participated in intramural athletics reported worse HIT-6 scores at baseline than female intercollegiate athletes (P=.003).This is the first study to stratify HIT-6 data by sex, concussion history, headache history, and sport level in a collegiate population at risk for concussions. Sex and headache history appear to influence HIT-6 scores and should be given special consideration when interpreting health-related quality of life deficits due to headache.

Background The World Health Organization recommends continuation with the failing second-line regimen if third-line option is not available. We investigated treatment outcomes among people living with HIV in Asia who continued with failing second-line regimens compared with those who had treatment modifications after failure. Methods Treatment modification was defined as a change of two antiretrovirals, a drug class change or treatment interruption (TI), all for >14 days. We assessed factors associated with CD4 changes and undetectable viral load (UVL Results Of the 328 patients who failed second-line ART in our cohorts, 208 (63%) had a subsequent treatment modification. Compared with those who continued the failing regimen, the average CD4 cell increase was higher in patients who had a modification without TI (difference =77.5, 95% CI 35.3, 119.7) while no difference was observed among those with TI (difference =-5.3, 95% CI -67.3, 56.8). Compared with those who continued the failing regimen, the odds of achieving UVL was lower in patients with TI (OR=0.18, 95% CI 0.06, 0.60) and similar among those who had a modification without TI (OR=1.97, 95% CI 0.95, 4.10), with proportions of UVL 60%, 22% and 75%, respectively. Survival time was not affected by treatment modifications. Conclusions CD4 cell improvements were observed in those who had treatment modification without TI compared with those on the failing regimen. When no other options are available, maintaining the same failing ART combination provided better VL control than interrupting treatment.

Species distribution models can be made more accurate by use of new “Spatiotemporal Exploratory Models” (STEMs), a type of spatially explicit ensemble model (SEEM) developed at the continental scale that averages regional models pixel by pixel. Although SEEMs can generate more accurate predictions of species distributions, they are computationally expensive. We compared the accuracies of each model for 11 grassland bird species and examined whether they improve accuracy at a statewide scale for fine and coarse predictor resolutions. We used a combination of survey data and citizen science data for 11 grassland bird species in Oklahoma to test a spatially explicit ensemble model at a smaller scale for its effects on accuracy of current models. We found that only four species performed best with either a statewide model or SEEM; the most accurate model for the remaining seven species varied with data resolution and performance measure. Policy implications: Determination of nonheterogeneity may depend on the spatial resolution of the examined dataset. Managers should be cautious if any regional differences are expected when developing policy from range‐wide results that show a single model or timeframe. We recommend use of standard species distribution models or other types of nonspatially explicit ensemble models for local species prediction models. Further study is necessary to understand at what point SEEMs become necessary with varying dataset resolutions.

Small-bodied terrestrial animals such as songbirds (Order Passeriformes) are especially vulnerable to hail-induced mortality; yet, hail events are challenging to predict, and they often occur in locations where populations are not being studied. Focusing on nesting grassland songbirds, we demonstrate a novel approach to estimate hail-induced mortality. We quantify the relationship between the probability of nests destroyed by hail and measured Level-III Next Generation Radar (NEXRAD) data, including atmospheric base reflectivity, maximum estimated size of hail and maximum estimated azimuthal wind shear. On 22 June 2014, a hailstorm in northern Colorado destroyed 102 out of 203 known nests within our research site. Lark bunting (Calamospiza melanocorys) nests comprised most of the sample (n = 186). Destroyed nests were more likely to be found in areas of higher storm intensity, and distributions of NEXRAD variables differed between failed and surviving nests. For 133 ground nests where nest-site vegetation was measured, we examined the ameliorative influence of woody vegetation, nest cover and vegetation density by comparing results for 13 different logistic regression models incorporating the independent and additive effects of weather and vegetation variables. The most parsimonious model used only the interactive effect of hail size and wind shear to predict the probability of nest survival, and the data provided no support for any of the models without this predictor. We conclude that vegetation structure may not mitigate mortality from severe hailstorms and that weather radar products can be used remotely to estimate potential for hail mortality of nesting grassland birds. These insights will improve the efficacy of grassland bird population models under predicted climate change scenarios.

INTRODUCTION: Identification of persons living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-associated tuberculosis (TB) at increased risk for unfavourable TB outcomes would inform efforts to improve such outcomes. We sought to identify factors associated with a decreased risk of unfavourable TB treatment outcomes among people living with HIV-infection (PLHIV) in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC), with a specific focus on directly observed therapy (DOT) compared with self-administered therapy (SAT) during the continuation phase of anti-TB therapy. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study among adults diagnosed with HIV-associated TB in Africa, Asia and the Americas from 2012 to 2013; data were collected from 2012 to 2016. Unfavourable TB treatment outcomes (death during TB treatment, and TB treatment failure or recurrence) were defined according to World Health Organization criteria. Receipt of DOT was obtained at the site level and defined as >/=5 days of DOT per week. The person administering DOT and treatment location varied by site. Lack of receipt of DOT was defined as SAT. Multivariable logistic regression estimated the adjusted odds of unfavourable TB treatment outcomes. RESULTS: Among 1862 adults with HIV-associated TB included, 252 (13.5%) had unfavourable TB outcomes (226 deaths, 26 recurrences/failures). Overall, 1825 (98%) received DOT in the intensive phase and 1617 (87%) received DOT in the continuation phase. DOT in the continuation phase was not significantly associated with unfavourable TB outcomes (aOR 1.43, 95% CI 0.86 to 2.38) compared to SAT. Body mass index (BMI) change during anti-TB treatment (per 2 units increase, aOR 0.74, 95% CI 0.68 to 0.82) and CD4(+) count at TB diagnosis (200 vs. 50 cells/microL, aOR 0.54, 95% CI 0.39 to 0.73) were both independently associated with decreased odds of unfavourable TB treatment outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: In this large, international cohort of people living with HIV-associated TB in LMIC who received intensive phase DOT, DOT during the continuation phase of anti-TB therapy was not associated with a decreased odds of unfavourable TB treatment outcomes compared to SAT. Randomized trials evaluating the effect of continuation-phase DOT on TB outcomes among PLHIV are needed.

Quality of service and fiscal success in the energy industry often depend on how well meteorological information and forecasts are used to manage risk and opportunity. On the subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, a disciplined strategy allows decision makers to counteract predicted adverse climate variations in the coming weeks or months with action or financial hedges. Calibrated S2S probabilistic forecasts from some providers have sufficient skill that they engender confidence in the statistical consequences of acting. On the scale of several or more decades ahead, probabilistic outlooks can guide strategic planning and capital expenditures in directions that will ensure long-term resilience to climate change. In both cases, the probabilities are generated by statistical analysis of ensembles of supercomputer forecasts or climate change scenarios.

Migratory animals often go to extraordinary lengths to follow broad-scale changes in the spatial distributions of food resources over time. An example is the molt-migration system of songbirds in the central and western United States, wherein birds interrupt migratory movements to molt their feathers in the ephemerally productive North American monsoon region in Northwestern Mexico. Within this large-scale migration system, the efficacy of individual migration behaviors relative to dynamics of primary productivity en route is unknown. We performed a comparison of real migration tracks from a common molt migrant, the painted bunting (Passerina ciris), with the results from millions of random-walk simulations to determine if real birds demonstrate optimal migratory behavior with respect to seasonal changes in primary productivity across the landscape. We scored migration routes of both real and simulated birds using an index of new plant growth, wherein daily values for each day of the autumn migration period were summed to indicate the total exposure to primary productivity. We then compared the highest-scoring simulated routes with real bird tracks and observed a high degree of correspondence between them, with the monsoon region featuring prominently in most of the high-ranking simulations. However, real birds generally left the breeding grounds later than virtual birds, perhaps because of life-history constraints not represented in the simulations. Our work supports the contention that painted bunting migration maximizes exposure to new plant growth and provides a novel approach for exploring migratory behaviors in other species and other regions.

A multisensor data fusion approach via acoustics, infrared camera, and marine radar is proposed and described in the application of avian monitoring. The ultimate scope of avian monitoring is to preserve the population of birds and bats, especially those listed in the endangered list, by observing their activity and behavior over the migration period. With the significant attention toward the construction of off-shore/on-shore wind farms in recent decades, the wind turbines are more threatening the avian life with increasing the risk of birds/bats collision with turbine blades. In order to address this problem, this paper proposes a fuzzy Bayesian-based multisensory data fusion approach to provide the activity information regarding the targets in the application of avian monitoring. The developed technique is used to process the Spring and Fall 2011 migration period.

Two general migration strategies prevail among temperate-breeding migratory songbirds of North America. Most “Eastern” birds migrate relatively directly from breeding to wintering grounds immediately after molting, whereas a substantial proportion of “Western” species depart breeding grounds early, and molt during extended migratory stopovers before reaching wintering areas. The Lark Sparrow is one of a few Western Neotropical migrants with a breeding range that extends into regions dominated by Eastern species. We sought to determine whether Eastern Lark Sparrows migrated in a manner consistent with Western conspecifics or follow typical Eastern songbird migratory patterns. To do so, we tracked individual Eastern Lark Sparrows equipped with geolocators between their breeding grounds in Ohio and their unknown wintering locations. Data from three Ohio Lark Sparrows revealed 1) individual variation in the duration and directness of autumn migrations, 2) autumn departures that consistently preceded molt, 3) wintering grounds in the central highlands of Mexico, and 4) brief and direct spring migrations. These observations suggest that eastern populations of prevailingly Western migrants, such as Lark Sparrows, may be behaviorally constrained to depart breeding grounds before molt, but may facultatively adjust migration en route.

All aggregate biological phenomena in the aerosphere are due to the behaviors of unique individuals acting according to their own rules of behavior and perceived external stimuli. An appealing characteristic of aeroecology is that we can observe both these aggregate behaviors of large groups (using tools such as radar and observational networks) as well as the behavior of individual animals (by employing animal tracking technology). Traditional population modeling efforts focus on equations that mimic natural populations in terms of overall population size and/or mean population parameters, often discounting mechanisms operating on the individual level that give rise to overall population dynamics. Concurrent advancements in computing capacity and animal tracking methodologies provide us with the opportunity to examine how the actions of individuals scale up to give rise to population-level phenomena in the aerosphere. More specifically, we can now model populations as a collection of individuals that behave independently, and we can validate the inferences from these agent-based models by tracking actual animals over the course of their annual cycle. In this chapter, we provide an example of how an agent-based model can be used to predict migration behavior across a species range based on a small set of actual migration tracks. The example provides a generalizable framework for using agent-based models as a link between data from individuals and broad-scale phenomena.

Aeroecological processes, especially powered flight of animals, can rapidly connect biological communities across the globe. This can have profound consequences for evolutionary diversification, energy and nutrient transfers, and the spread of infectious diseases. The latter is of particular consequence for human populations, since migratory birds are known to host diseases which have a history of transmission into domestic poultry or even jumping to human hosts. In this chapter, we present a scenario under which a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) strain enters North America from East Asia via post-molting waterfowl migration. We use an agent-based model (ABM) to simulate the movement and disease transmission among 106 generalized waterfowl agents originating from ten molting locations in eastern Siberia, with the HPAI seeded in only ~102 agents at one of these locations. Our ABM tracked the disease dynamics across a very large grid of sites as well as individual agents, allowing us to examine the spatiotemporal patterns of change in virulence of the HPAI infection as well as waterfowl host susceptibility to the disease. We concurrently simulated a 12-station disease monitoring network in the northwest USA and Canada in order to assess the potential efficacy of these sites to detect and confirm the arrival of HPAI. Our findings indicated that HPAI spread was initially facilitated but eventually subdued by the migration of host agents. Yet, during the 90-day simulation, selective pressures appeared to have distilled the HPAI strain to its most virulent form (i.e., through natural selection), which was counterbalanced by the host susceptibility being conversely reduced (i.e., through genetic predisposition and acquired immunity). The monitoring network demonstrated wide variation in the utility of sites; some were clearly better at providing early warnings of HPAI arrival, while sites further from the disease origin exposed the selective dynamics which slowed the spread of the disease albeit with the result of passing highly virulent strains into southern wintering locales (where human impacts are more likely). Though the ABM presented had generalized waterfowl migration and HPAI disease dynamics, this exercise demonstrates the power of such simulations to examine the extremely large and complex processes which comprise aeroecology. We offer insights into how such models could be further parameterized to represent HPAI transmission risks as well as how ABMs could be applied to other aeroecological questions pertaining to individual-based connectivity.

In their 2015 Current Biology paper, Streby et al. [1] reported that Golden-winged Warblers (Vermivora chrysoptera), which had just migrated to their breeding location in eastern Tennessee, performed a facultative and up to “>1,500 km roundtrip” to the Gulf of Mexico to avoid a severe tornadic storm. From light-level geolocator data, wherein geographical locations are estimated via the timing of sunrise and sunset, Streby et al. [1] concluded that the warblers had evacuated their breeding area approximately 24 hours before the storm and returned about five days later. The authors presented this finding as evidence that migratory birds avoid severe storms by temporarily moving long-distances. However, the tracking method employed by Streby et al. [1] is prone to considerable error and uncertainty. Here, we argue that this interpretation of the data oversteps the limits of the used tracking technique. By calculating the expected geographical error range for the tracked birds, we demonstrate that the hypothesized movements fell well within the geolocators’ inherent error range for this species and that such deviations in latitude occur frequently even if individuals remain stationary.

Seasonal probability forecasts produced with numerical dynamics on supercomputers offer great potential value in managing risk and opportunity created by seasonal variability. The skill and reliability of contemporary forecast systems can be increased by calibration methods that use the historical performance of the forecast system to improve the ongoing real-time forecasts. Two calibration methods are applied to seasonal surface temperature forecasts of the US National Weather Service, the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, and to a World Climate Service multi-model ensemble created by combining those two forecasts with Bayesian methods. As expected, the multi-model is somewhat more skillful and more reliable than the original models taken alone. The potential value of the multimodel in decision making is illustrated with the profits achieved in simulated trading of a weather derivative. In addition to examining the seasonal models, the article demonstrates that calibrated probability forecasts of weekly average temperatures for leads of 2–4 weeks are also skillful and reliable. The conversion of ensemble forecasts into probability distributions of impact variables is illustrated with degree days derived from the temperature forecasts. Some issues related to loss of stationarity owing to long-term warming are considered. The main conclusion of the article is that properly calibrated probabilistic forecasts possess sufficient skill and reliability to contribute to effective decisions in government and business activities that are sensitive to intraseasonal and seasonal climate variability.

Bald Eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) will reuse massive nests placed high in trees over multiple years, potentially exposing them to catastrophe loss during severe storms. The stochasticity of localized weather, however, has traditionally been viewed as impeding the quantitative study of such risks. In March 2015 a severe weather outbreak along the Arkansas River near Tulsa, Oklahoma caused widespread damage among a highly-concentrated and long-monitored population of nesting Bald Eagles. We conducted field surveys on the extent of nest loss and consulted weather and observer records to determine what characteristics of the storm (maximum azimuthal wind shear) or nests (years of use) might have been associated with nest destruction. We found 5 of 9 nests along a ~24km stretch of the river were destroyed during the storm, causing the death of at least 8 eaglets. Mean years of use was higher among destroyed nests (4.8) than surviving nests (4.0), though not significantly so within this limited sample. The degree of maximum azimuthal shear (i.e., wind rotation) during the storm within 800m of the nests, however, did significantly differ both in terms of maximums (15.8 vs 9.5 ms−1) and means (9.4 vs 6.6 ms−1) for destroyed versus persisting nests, respectively. Our findings suggest a threshold of tornadic wind shear beyond which Bald Eagle nests, irrespective of age, could be prone to catastrophe. Such insights are key to developing accurate models of population persistence, especially in light of potential shifts in severe weather patterns under various climate change scenarios.

Complex behavioral traits, such as those making up a migratory phenotype, are regulated by multiple environmental factors and multiple genes. We investigated possible relationships between microsatellite variation at two candidate genes implicated in the control of migratory behavior, Clock and Adcyap1, and several aspects of migratory life-history and evolutionary divergence in the Painted Bunting (Passerina ciris), a species that shows wide variation in migratory and molting strategies across a disjunct distribution. We focused on Clock and Adcyap1 microsatellite variation across three Painted Bunting populations in Oklahoma, Louisiana, and North Carolina, and for the Oklahoma breeding population we used published migration tracking data on adult males to explore phenotypic variation in individual migratory behavior. We found no correlation between microsatellite allele size within either Clock and Adcyap1 relative to the initiation or duration of fall migration in adult males breeding in Oklahoma. We also show the lack of significant correlations with aspects of the migratory phenotype for the Louisiana population. Our research highlights the limitations of studying microsatellite allelic mutations that are of undetermined functional influence relative to complex behavioral phenotypes.

The impact of evolving migratory behavior on brain organization in birds has been a foundational question in the emerging field of neuroecology. One generalization that seems to be approaching consensus is that migratory species/populations have smaller brain volumes than their nonmigratory comparison groups. The lark sparrow (Chondestes grammacus) is a North American species characterized by migratory and nonmigratory populations. Consistent with what has been observed in other species/population comparisons, we found that, relative to body weight, migratory females from Nebraska have smaller brain volumes than nonmigratory females from Texas. We also carried out an exploratory, higher-order analysis of possible differences in the volumes of a number of telencephalic subdivisions. Although our small sample size precluded statistical verification of any difference, noteworthy was that, although there seemed to be no indication of a difference in the relative hippocampal volume between the two populations, the migratory birds from Nebraska showed a clear trend toward a smaller nidopallium. The importance of higher-resolution, brain subdivisional analyses has been discussed.

The extent to which a species has declined within its historical range is commonly used as an important criterion in categorizing the conservation status of wild populations. The greater prairie chicken (Tympanuchus cupido) has been extirpated from much of the area it once inhabited. However, within a large part of this area the species is not considered to be native, warranting no recovery effort or special protection. Demographic analysis based on provenance data from 238 specimens from museum collections in addition to genetic analyses of 100 mtDNA sequences suggest this species was native to the northern prairies, extending from central Minnesota to Alberta, Canada. Provenance data from 1879 to 1935 indicate that T. cupido would have required colonization and establishment of populations on an average 11,905 km 2 every year, with an estimated per capita growth rate of 8.9% per year. These rates seem unrealistic given the limited dispersal and high mortality rates reported for this species. A survey of mtDNA sequences from ‘‘original’’ and ‘‘expanded’’ ranges revealed no differences in levels of sequence diversity within ranges (p=0.018; SE=0.004) but significant levels of genetic differentiation (FST=0.034; P=0.013), which suggest that these populations have been relatively isolated for significant evolutionary time periods. DNA mismatch distributions fit a sudden expansion model consistent with a post-Pleistocene expansion of the species, which coincides with the expansion of prairies into the Canadian plains about 9000 years before present. This study demonstrates the value of museum collections as stores of ecological and genetic information fundamental for the conservation of natural populations, and suggests that the current status of the greater prairie chicken should be re-evaluated within all areas where this species may occur, but is now considered non-native.

Many studies can be found in the literature pertaining to the effects of urbanization on surface runoff in small watersheds and the hydrologic response of undeveloped watersheds. However, an extensive literature review yielded few published studies that illustrate differing hydrologic responses from multiple source areas within a watershed. The concepts discussed here are not new, but the methods used provide a unique, basic procedure for investigating stormwater hydrology in topographically diverse basins. Six storm hydrographs from three small central Pennsylvania watersheds were analyzed for this paper; five are presented. Two important conclusions are deduced from this investigation. First, in all cases we found two distinct peaks in stream discharge, each representing different contributing areas to direct discharge with greatly differing curve numbers and lags representative of urban and rural source regions. Second, the direct discharge represents only a small fraction of the total drainage area with the urban peak becoming increasingly important with respect to the rural peak with the amount of urbanization and as the magnitude of the rain event decreases.

Background The use of abacavir (ABC) and rilpivirine (RPV) in the first-line regimen for naïve HIV-infected patients with pretreatment HIV RNA >100,000 copies/mL is not recommended due to a high rate of treatment failure. If a model could accurately predict pretreatment HIV RNA levels, it would be a useful tool for the selection ABC or RPV in the first-line regimen. Methods Thai HIV-infected adults enrolled in the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (TAHOD) and additional patients of Ramathibodi Hospital were eligible if they had an HIV RNA result at the time of antiretroviral therapy initiation. Factors associated with pretreatment HIV RNA Results A total of 1,223 patients were included in the analysis. Among those in the derivation data set, median [interquartile range (IQR)] age was 36.3 (30.5–42.9) years, median (IQR) CD4 count was 122 (39–216) cells/mm3, and pretreatment HIV RNA was 100,000 (32,449–229,777) copies/mL. Factors associated with pretreatment HIV RNA 200 cells/mm3 (OR 3.00 vs. CD4 count 200 cells/mm3 (27), duration of HIV infection >1 year (9), and weight >50 years (11) were included in the clinical prediction tool scores. A score ≥45 yielded a sensitivity of 45.3%, specificity of 76.7%, positive predictive value of 68.1%, and negative predictive value of 56.1% among patients in the derivation. The area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve was 0.655 (95% CI 0.614- 0.696) and 0.600 (95% CI 0.533–0.667) in the derivation and validation patients, respectively. Conclusion Our final prediction model had poor sensitivity and specificity for predicting HIV RNA Disclosures All authors: No reported disclosures.

In August 2013, we observed a high incidence (44%) of synchronous fault bars across the rectrices of juvenile Grasshopper Sparrows (Ammodrammus savannarum) captured near El Reno, Oklahoma. Earlier that year, on May 31, the site was struck by a severe storm which rained hailstones exceeding 5.5 cm diameter and spawned an historic 4.2 km-wide tornado 15N and δ13C stable isotope ratios within four 0.25-0.40 mg feather sections taken from the distal end of a tail feather from 18 juveniles captured at the site in August. The fault bar, if present, was contained within only one section. Fault bars were located at various positions on the distal half of feathers, and fault bar width significantly increased as a function of distance from the tip (i.e., age at formation). After correcting for consistent, natural δ15N variation across sections, we found that feather sections containing or located immediately proximal to fault bars showed significantly higher δ15N than sections from the same feathers located distal to or further from the fault bar region. We also observed significantly higher δ13C but lower δ15N in the feathers of juveniles with fault bars compared to normal appearing juveniles. Our findings support the hypothesis that an abrupt environmental stressor affected Grasshopper Sparrow chicks of various ages, and caused short term catabolism of muscle tissue that resulted in a spike in δ15N deposited into growing feathers. Furthermore, higher δ15N and lower δ13C among juveniles lacking fault bars suggested a seasonal change in diet consistent with these individuals hatching after the May 31 storm. Severe weather events may represent major stressors to ground-nesting birds, and we recommend exploiting opportunities to study the effects of severe weather as part of ongoing research efforts.

A radar monitoring system is implemented to evaluate the birds activity and their quantification in the western basin of lake Erie in Ohio. This location is a habitat stopover for migratory birds and also it is a putative area for constructing wind farm. The radar monitoring is performed in three steps consist of data acquisition, blip detections, and target tracking. Blip detection is performed in radR platform and tracking is performed using developed particle filter in MATLAB. The radar monitoring system is used to process data collected in migration period of fall and spring 2011.

Nocturnally migratory birds and bats are at higher risk of colliding with wind turbines. It is important to gather scientific data in an area which have potential of wind farm development. An IR camera recording and its analysis can provide necessary information to wildlife biologists involve with interaction of birds/bats with wind turbines. An efficient IR video processing algorithm has been developed. The proposed algorithm consists of background and consecutive frame subtraction, frame selection, 3-D region labeling and breakpoint recovery. It is then used to process spring 2011 bird migration data that has been collected in Ottawa National Wildlife Refuge in Ohio. Results from this study will be useful for wildlife biologists to make intelligent decision for siting of wind turbines. It will also help policy makers to develop an appropriate public policy for wind farm development in an area with extensive avian activity.

Probability methods provide quantitative insight into the implications of atmospheric variability for the energy industry. Contemporary computer probability forecasts of climate anomalies for the weeks, months, or seasons ahead offer new precision in managing both risk and opportunity. The forecasts of two major international centers and a multi-model constructed from them by the World Climate Service demonstrate that the contemporary probability forecasts have sufficient skill and reliability to provide advantageous guidance for energy decisions. An analytical model of choices available in response to predicted anomalies illustrates how and when to act on forecasts. Atmospheric informatics is introduced as a system for creating, transferring, and applying atmospheric information in important endeavors. The aim is to show energy and other industry decision-makers what they need to know—now.

Wind Energy is considered as the green and free energy. It can be harvested any time wherever there are high winds. One of the concerns with turbine is with birds and bats. There are reports of birds and bats fatalities around wind turbine. One way to investigate this issue is to monitor wind turbine areas. Researchers have used marine radars for this purpose. Weather radars commonly known as NEXRAD have also been used for monitoring purposes. The advantage of NEXRAD is that it can provide bird migration movements over a broad geographical scale and can be accessed free of charge. This work proposes image processing based algorithm for retrieval of biological information from NEXRAD data. The method is limited to the radar range up to 80 km. It will be useful to wildlife biologists, wind farm developers and policy makers.

There are many reports of bird and bat mortality in vicinity of wind turbines [1]. It is important to quantify numbers and species of birds and bats in a given area which is targeted for wind farm development. It is also necessary to assess the behavior of birds and bats in wind farm areas. Acoustic monitoring techniques have been developed in this work for monitoring of birds and bats. Spectrogram-based Image Frequency Statistics (SIFS) is used for feature extraction and Evolutionary Neural Network (ENN) is used for classification purposes. Data was collected near Lake Erie in Ohio during 2011 spring and fall migration periods. Data analysis was performed in accordance to needs of wildlife biologists.

Interaction of avian with turbines has become an important public policy issue, so identification and quantification of avian at turbine sites is crucial.

SummaryConsiderable efforts have been made to investigate how homing pigeons (Columba livia f. domestica) are able to return to their loft from distant, unfamiliar sites while the mechanisms underlying navigation in familiar territory have received less attention. With the recent advent of Global-Positioning-System (GPS) data-loggers small enough to be carried by pigeons, the role of visual environmental features in guiding navigation over familiar areas is beginning to be understood, yet surprisingly, we still know very little about whether homing pigeons can rely on discrete, visual landmarks to guide navigation. To assess a possible role of discrete, visual landmarks in navigation, homing pigeons were first trained to home from a site with four wind turbines as salient landmarks as well as from a control site without any distinctive, discrete landmark features. The GPS-recorded flight paths of the pigeons on the last training release were straighter and more similar among birds from the turbine site compared to the control site. The pigeons were then released from both sites following a clock-shift manipulation. Vanishing bearings from the turbine site continued to be homeward oriented as 13 of 14 pigeons returned home. By contrast, at the control site the vanishing bearings were deflected in the expected clock-shift direction and only 5 of 13 pigeons returned home. Taken together, our results offer the first strong evidence that discrete, visual landmarks are one source of spatial information homing pigeons can utilize to navigate when flying over a familiar area.

This paper presents a method for target detection and tracking of IR images in the application of avian surveillance. As there are many reports of avian mortality due to collision with turbine blades, the detection and tracking of birds at turbine sites is an important issue. In this work, three different background subtraction techniques are first applied to detect moving objects. Otsu thresholding method is then extended by incorporating an adaptive variable based on the mean of each frame and certain constant value. Filtering using morphological operations is applied. Results of three different techniques are then compared. Selected technique (RA) followed by thresholding and filtering is then used for tracking and information extraction. Results show that proposed method provides the needed accuracy for IR imagery. This method can be effectively used in different applications of IR imaging.

There are reports that large number of bat fatalities occur near wind turbines. Acoustic characteristics can be employed for bat call recognition to better understand the effects of turbines on different bat species. Acoustic features of bat echolocation calls are extracted based on three different techniques: Short Time Fourier Transform (STFT), Mel Frequency Cepstrum Coefficient (MFCC) and Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT). These features are fed into an Evolutionary Neural Network (ENN) for their classification at the species level using acoustic features. Results from different feature extraction techniques are compared based on classification accuracy. The technique can identify bats and will contribute towards developing mitigation procedures for reducing bat fatalities.

Acoustic monitoring of birds in the vicinity of wind turbines is becoming an important public policy issue. Acoustic monitoring involves preprocessing, feature extraction and classification. A novel Spectrogram-based Image Frequency Statistics (SIFS) feature extraction algorithm has been developed. Features extracted from proposed algorithms were then combined with various classification algorithms such as k-NN, Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Hidden Markov Models (HMM) and Evolutionary Neural Network (ENN). SIFS and MMS algorithms, combined with ENN, provided the most accurate results. Proposed algorithms were tested with real data collected during spring migration around Lake Erie in Ohio.

An Evolutionary Neural Network (ENN) is developed to identify bats by their vocalization characteristics. This is in an effort to identify local bat species as a large number of bat fatalities near wind turbines have been reported. ENN is based on the Genetic Algorithm, which can be used for optimization of the weight selection of the neural network. We then compare ENN with different classification techniques. In the scope of bat call classification, ENN is a new technique that can be effectively used as a bat-call classifier. This research will help in developing mitigation techniques for reducing bat fatalities. The ENN algorithm is developed in MATLAB.

In August 2013, we observed a high incidence (44%) of synchronous bands of reduced melanin (a type of fault bar we have termed "pallid bands") across the rectrices of juvenile Grasshopper Sparrows (Ammodrammus savannarum) captured near El Reno, Oklahoma. Earlier that year, on May 31, the site was struck by a severe storm which rained hailstones exceeding 5.5 cm diameter and spawned an historic 4.2 km-wide tornado8 km to the south of the site. We hypothesized that this stressor had induced the pallid bands. An assessment of Grasshopper Sparrow nesting phenology indicated that a large number of nestlings were likely growing tail feathers when the storm hit. The pallid bands were restricted to the distal half of feathers and their widths significantly increased as a function of distance from the tip (i.e., age at formation). We predicted that if stress had caused these pallid bands, then a spike in circulating δ (15)N originating from tissue catabolism during the stress response would have been incorporated into the developing feather. From 18 juveniles captured at the site in August we measured δ (15)N and δ (13)C stable isotope ratios within four to five 0.25-0.40 mg feather sections taken from the distal end of a tail feather; the pallid band, if present, was contained within only one section. After accounting for individual and across-section variation, we found support for our prediction that feather sections containing or located immediately proximal to pallid bands (i.e., the pallid band region) would show significantly higher δ (15)N than sections outside this region. In contrast, the feathers of juveniles with pallid bands compared to normal appearing juveniles showed significantly lower δ (15)N. A likely explanation is that the latter individuals hatched after the May 31 storm and had consumed a trophically-shifted diet relative to juveniles with pallid bands. Considering this, the juveniles of normal appearance were significantly less abundant within our sample relative to expectations from past cohorts (z = - 2.03; p = 0.042) and, in as much, suggested widespread nest losses during the storm. Severe weather events may represent major stressors to ground-nesting birds, especially for recent fledglings. We call for others to exploit opportunities to study the effects of severe weather when these rare but devastating stressors impact established field research sites.