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Background: Growing evidence indicates that trimethylamine N -oxide, a gut microbial metabolite of dietary choline and carnitine, promotes both cardiovascular disease and chronic kidney disease risk. It remains unclear how circulating concentrations of trimethylamine N -oxide and its related dietary and gut microbe-derived metabolites (choline, betaine, carnitine, γ-butyrobetaine, and crotonobetaine) affect incident heart failure (HF)., Methods: We evaluated 11 768 participants from the Cardiovascular Health Study and the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis with serial measures of metabolites. Cox proportional hazard models were used to examine the associations between metabolites and incident HF, adjusted for cardiovascular disease risk factors., Results: In all, 2102 cases of HF occurred over a median follow-up of 15.9 years. After adjusting for traditional risk factors, higher concentrations of trimethylamine N -oxide (hazard ratio, 1.15 [95% CI, 1.09-1.20]; P <0.001), choline (hazard ratio, 1.44 [95% CI, 1.26-1.64]; P <0.001), and crotonobetaine (hazard ratio, 1.24 [95% CI, 1.16-1.32]; P <0.001) were associated with increased risk for incident HF. After further adjustment for renal function (potential confounder or mediator), these associations did not reach Bonferroni-corrected statistical significance ( P =0.01, 0.049, and 0.006, respectively). Betaine and carnitine were nominally associated with a higher incidence of HF ( P <0.05). In exploratory analyses, results were similar for subtypes of HF based on left ventricular ejection fraction, and associations appeared generally stronger among Black and Hispanic/Latino versus White adults, although there were no interactions for any metabolites with race., Conclusions: In this pooled analysis of 2 well-phenotyped, diverse, community-based cohorts, circulating concentrations of gut microbe-derived metabolites such as trimethylamine N -oxide, choline, and crotonobetaine were independently associated with a higher risk of developing HF., Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/; Unique identifiers: NCT00005133 and NCT00005487., Competing Interests: Dr Tang is a consultant for Sequana Medical, Cardiol Therapeutics, Genomics plc, Zehna Therapeutics, WhiteSwell, Boston Scientific, CardiaTec Biosciences, Intellia Therapeutics, Bristol Myers Squibb, Alleviant Medical, Alexion Pharmaceuticals, BioCardia, and Salubris Biotherapeutics and has received honorarium from Springer Nature, Belvoir Media Group, and American Board of Internal Medicine. Drs Hazen and Z. Wang report being named as co-inventors on pending and issued patents held by the Cleveland Clinic relating to cardiovascular diagnostics and therapeutics. Drs Hazen and Z. Wang report having received royalty payments for inventions or discoveries related to cardiovascular diagnostics or therapeutics from Cleveland Heart Lab, a fully owned subsidiary of Quest Diagnostics, and Procter & Gamble. Dr Hazen is a paid consultant for Zehna Therapeutics and Proctor & Gamble and has received research funds from Zehna Therapeutics, Proctor & Gamble, Pfizer Inc, and Roche Diagnostics. Dr Bäckhed reports receiving research support from Biogaia AB, is founder and shareholder of Implexion Pharma AB and Roxbiosens Inc, and is on the scientific advisory board for Bactolife A/S. Dr Psaty reported serving on the Steering Committee of the Yale Open Data Access Project funded by Johnson & Johnson. Dr Mozaffarian reported receiving personal fees from Acasti Pharma Inc, America’s Test Kitchen, Barilla, Cleveland Clinic Foundation, Danone SA, GOED (Global Organization for EPA and DHA Omega-3s), and Motif FoodWorks; serving on the scientific advisory board for Beren Therapeutics GmbH, Brightseed, Calibrate, DayTwo (ended June 2020), Elysium Health, Filtricine Inc, Foodome, HumanCo, January Inc, Perfect Day Inc, Season, and Tiny Organics; and receiving chapter royalties from UpToDate outside the submitted work. The other authors report no conflicts.

Background: A growing body of research indicates that associations of ceramides and sphingomyelins with mortality depend on the chain length of the fatty acid acylated to the backbone sphingoid base. We examined associations of 8 ceramide and sphingomyelin species with mortality among an American Indian population., Methods and Results: The analysis comprised 2688 participants from the SHFS (Strong Heart Family Study). Plasma ceramide and sphingomyelin species carrying long-chain (ie, 16:0) and very-long-chain (ie, 20:0, 22:0, 24:0) saturated fatty acids were measured by sequential liquid chromatography and mass spectroscopy using samples from 2001 to 2003. Participants were followed for 18.8 years (2001-2020). Associations of ceramides and sphingomyelins with mortality were assessed using Cox models. The mean age of participants was 40.8 years. There were 574 deaths during a median 17.4-year follow-up. Ceramides and sphingomyelins carrying fatty acid 16:0 were positively associated with mortality. Ceramides and sphingomyelins carrying longer fatty acids were inversely associated with mortality. Per SD difference in each ceramide and sphingomyelin species, hazard ratios for death were: 1.68 (95% CI, 1.44-1.96) for ceramide-16 (Cer-16), 0.82 (95% CI, 0.71-0.95) for Cer-20, 0.60 (95% CI, 0.51-0.70) for Cer-22, 0.67 (95% CI, 0.56-0.79) for Cer-24, 1.80 (95% CI-1.57, 2.05) for sphingomyelin-16 (SM-16), 0.54 (95% CI, 0.47-0.62) for SM-20, 0.50 (95% CI, 0.44-0.57) for SM-22, and 0.59 (95% CI, 0.52-0.67) for SM-24., Conclusions: The direction/magnitude of associations of ceramides and sphingomyelins with mortality differs according to the length of the fatty acid acylated to the backbone sphingoid base., Registration: URL: https://www.clinicatrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT00005134.

Introduction: Heart rate (HR) fragmentation indices quantify breakdown of HR regulation and are associated with atrial fibrillation and cognitive impairment. Their association with brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) markers of small vessel disease is unexplored., Methods: In 606 stroke-free participants of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (mean age 67), HR fragmentation indices including percentage of inflection points (PIP) were derived from sleep study recordings. We examined PIP in relation to white matter hyperintensity (WMH) volume, total white matter fractional anisotropy (FA), and microbleeds from 3-Tesla brain MRI completed 7 years later., Results: In adjusted analyses, higher PIP was associated with greater WMH volume (14% per standard deviation [SD], 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2, 27%, P = 0.02) and lower WM FA (-0.09 SD per SD, 95% CI: -0.16, -0.01, P = 0.03)., Discussion: HR fragmentation was associated with small vessel disease. HR fragmentation can be measured automatically from ambulatory electrocardiogram devices and may be useful as a biomarker of vascular brain injury., (© 2023 The Authors. Alzheimer's & Dementia published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Alzheimer's Association.)

Background: The presence of atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with an over 2-fold increased risk of stroke, heart failure, and cardiovascular mortality. Long chain n-6 PUFAs have been suggested to have a variety of beneficial biologic effects that may reduce AF development; however, prior studies evaluating this relationship are limited., Objectives: We prospectively evaluated the association between circulating levels of linoleic acid (LA) and arachidonic acid (AA) with incident AF., Methods: We used participant-level data from a global consortium of 11 prospective cohort studies with measurements of LA and AA in adults (aged ≥18 y). Participating studies conducted de novo analyses using a prespecified analytical plan with harmonized definitions for exposures, outcomes, covariates, and subgroups. Associations were pooled using inverse-variance weighted meta-analysis., Results: Among 41,335 participants, 6173 incident cases of AF were ascertained, with median follow-up time of 14 y. In multivariable analysis, per interquintile range (difference between the 10th and 90th percentiles for each fatty acid), circulating n-6 levels were not associated with incident AF. For LA, the hazard ratio per interquintile range was 0.96 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.89, 1.04), and for AA, 1.02 (95% CI: 0.94, 1.10), with little evidence of heterogeneity between cohorts. Associations were similarly nonsignificant across subgroups of age, race, and biomarker fraction., Conclusions: Biomarkers of n-6 fatty acids including LA and AA are not associated with incident AF. These findings suggest that overall effects of n-6 PUFAs on influencing AF development are neutral., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest The authors report no conflicts of interest., (Copyright © 2023 American Society for Nutrition. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Importance: Sphingolipids, including ceramides and sphingomyelins, may influence the pathophysiology and risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD) through multiple biological activities. Whether the length of the fatty acid acylated to plasma sphingolipid species is associated with SCD risk is not known., Objective: To determine whether the saturated fatty acid length of plasma ceramides and sphingomyelins influences the association with SCD risk., Design, Setting, and Participants: In this cohort study, multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to examine the association of sphingolipid species with SCD risk. The study population included 4612 participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study followed up prospectively for a median of 10.2 (IQR, 5.5-11.6) years. Baseline data were collected from January 1992 to December 1995 during annual examinations. Data were analyzed from February 11, 2020, to September 9, 2023., Exposures: Eight plasma sphingolipid species (4 ceramides and 4 sphingomyelins) with saturated fatty acids of 16, 20, 22, and 24 carbons., Main Outcome and Measure: Association of plasma ceramides and sphingomyelins with saturated fatty acids of different lengths with SCD risk., Results: Among the 4612 CHS participants included in the analysis (mean [SD] age, 77 [5] years; 2724 [59.1%] women; 6 [0.1%] American Indian; 4 [0.1%] Asian; 718 [15.6%] Black; 3869 [83.9%] White, and 15 [0.3%] Other), 215 SCD cases were identified. In adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression analyses, plasma ceramides and sphingomyelins with palmitic acid (Cer-16 and SM-16) were associated with higher SCD risk per higher SD of log sphingolipid levels (hazard ratio [HR] for Cer-16, 1.34 [95% CI, 1.12-1.59]; HR for SM-16, 1.37 [95% CI, 1.12-1.67]). Associations did not differ by baseline age, sex, race, or body mass index. No significant association of SCD with sphingolipids with very-long-chain saturated fatty acids was observed after correction for multiple testing (HR for ceramide with arachidic acid, 1.06 [95% CI, 0.90-1.24]; HR for ceramide with behenic acid, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.77-1.10]; HR for ceramide with lignoceric acid, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.77-1.09]; HR for sphingomyelin with arachidic acid, 0.83 [95% CI, 0.71-0.98]; HR for sphingomyelin with behenic acid, 0.84 [95% CI, 0.70-1.00]; HR for sphingomyelin with lignoceric acid, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.72-1.03])., Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this large, population-based cohort study of SCD identified that higher plasma levels of Cer-16 and SM-16 were associated with higher risk of SCD. Future studies are needed to examine the underlying mechanism of these associations.

Introduction: Little is known about the epidemiology of brain microbleeds in racially/ethnically diverse populations., Methods: In the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, brain microbleeds were identified from 3T magnetic resonance imaging susceptibility-weighted imaging sequences using deep learning models followed by radiologist review., Results: Among 1016 participants without prior stroke (25% Black, 15% Chinese, 19% Hispanic, 41% White, mean age 72), microbleed prevalence was 20% at age 60 to 64.9 and 45% at ≥85 years. Deep microbleeds were associated with older age, hypertension, higher body mass index, and atrial fibrillation, and lobar microbleeds with male sex and atrial fibrillation. Overall, microbleeds were associated with greater white matter hyperintensity volume and lower total white matter fractional anisotropy., Discussion: Results suggest differing associations for lobar versus deep locations. Sensitive microbleed quantification will facilitate future longitudinal studies of their potential role as an early indicator of vascular pathology., (© 2023 the Alzheimer's Association.)

Background The association of circulating trimethylamine- N -oxide (TMAO) with stroke has received limited attention. To address this gap, we examined the associations of serial measures of plasma TMAO with incident ischemic stroke. Methods and Results We used a prospective cohort design with data pooled from 2 cohorts. The settings were the CHS (Cardiovascular Health Study), a cohort of older adults, and the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis), both in the United States. We measured plasma concentrations of TMAO at baseline and again during the follow-up using high-performance liquid chromatography and mass spectrometry. We assessed the association of plasma TMAO with incident ischemic stroke using proportional hazards regression adjusted for risk factors. The combined cohorts included 11 785 participants without a history of stroke, on average 73 (CHS) and 62 (MESA) years old at baseline, including 60% (CHS) and 53% (MESA) women. We identified 1031 total incident ischemic strokes during a median 15-year follow-up in the combined cohorts. In multivariable analyses, TMAO was significantly associated with incident ischemic stroke risk (hazard ratios comparing a doubling of TMAO: 1.11 [1.03-1.18], P =0.004). The association was linear over the range of TMAO concentrations and appeared restricted to those without diagnosed coronary heart disease. An association with hemorrhagic stroke was not found. Conclusions Plasma TMAO levels are associated with incident ischemic stroke in a diverse population. Registration URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00005133.

Background: The relationship between omega-3 fatty acids and atrial fibrillation (AF) remains controversial., Objectives: This study aimed to determine the prospective associations of blood or adipose tissue levels of eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA), docosapentaenoic acid (DPA), and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) with incident AF., Methods: We used participant-level data from a global consortium of 17 prospective cohort studies, each with baseline data on blood or adipose tissue omega-3 fatty acid levels and AF outcomes. Each participating study conducted a de novo analyses using a prespecified analytical plan with harmonized definitions for exposures, outcome, covariates, and subgroups. Associations were pooled using inverse-variance weighted meta-analysis., Results: Among 54,799 participants from 17 cohorts, 7,720 incident cases of AF were ascertained after a median 13.3 years of follow-up. In multivariable analysis, EPA levels were not associated with incident AF, HR per interquintile range (ie, the difference between the 90th and 10th percentiles) was 1.00 (95% CI: 0.95-1.05). HRs for higher levels of DPA, DHA, and EPA+DHA, were 0.89 (95% CI: 0.83-0.95), 0.90 (95% CI: 0.85-0.96), and 0.93 (95% CI: 0.87-0.99), respectively., Conclusions: In vivo levels of omega-3 fatty acids including EPA, DPA, DHA, and EPA+DHA were not associated with increased risk of incident AF. Our data suggest the safety of habitual dietary intakes of omega-3 fatty acids with respect to AF risk. Coupled with the known benefits of these fatty acids in the prevention of adverse coronary events, our study suggests that current dietary guidelines recommending fish/omega-3 fatty acid consumption can be maintained., Competing Interests: Funding Support and Author Disclosures The Fatty Acid Research Institute retrospectively provided a small honorarium to a subset of the analysts who participated in this study, but it had no role in the design, analysis, manuscript writing, nor decision to submit for publication. Detailed funding information for the individual cohorts can be found in the Supplemental Appendix, specifically Supplemental Table 4. None of the funders/sponsors played any role in the collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of the data; preparation, review, or approval of the manuscript; or decision to submit the manuscript for publication. Dr O'Donoghue is a member of the TIMI Study Group, which has received institutional research grant support through Brigham and Women’s Hospital from Amgen, Novartis, Janssen, and AstraZeneca; and has received consulting fees from Amgen, Novartis, Janssen, and AstraZeneca. Dr Albert has received consulting fees from Boston Scientific, Medtronic, Novartis, and Element Science. Dr Morrow is a member of the TIMI Study group, which has received institutional research grant support through Brigham and Women’s Hospital from Abbott Laboratories, Amgen, Anthos Therapeutics, Arca Biopharma, AstraZeneca, Bayer HealthCare Pharmaceuticals, Inc, Daiichi-Sankyo, Eisai, Intarcia, Janssen, Merck, Novartis, Pfizer, Quark Pharmaceuticals, Regeneron, Roche, Siemens, The Medicines Company, and Zora Biosciences; and has received consulting fees from ARCA, InCarda, Inflammatix, Merck, Novartis, and Roche Diagnostics. Dr O’Keefe has a major ownership interest in Cardiotabs (a company that markets supplements including omega-3). Dr Mozaffarian, outside of the submitted work, has received research funding from the Gates Foundation, The Rockefeller Foundation, and the Vail Institute for Global Research; has received personal fees from Acasti Pharma, Barilla, Danone, and Motif FoodWorks; has served on the scientific advisory board of Beren Therapeutics, Brightseed, Calibrate, DayTwo (ended June 20, 2023), Elysium Health, Filtricine, Foodome, HumanCo, January Inc, Perfect Day, Season, and Tiny Organics; has stock ownership in Calibrate and HumanCo; and has chapter royalties from UpToDate. Dr Harris holds stock in OmegaQuant Analytics, LLC (a laboratory that offers blood fatty acid testing); and is on the Scientific Advisory Boards for the Schiff Institute Science and Innovation, Synspira, and the Seafood Nutrition Partnership. All other authors have reported that they have no relationships relevant to the contents of this paper to disclose., (Copyright © 2023 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Importance: Enlarged perivascular spaces (ePVSs) have been associated with cerebral small-vessel disease (cSVD). Although their etiology may differ based on brain location, study of ePVSs has been limited to specific brain regions; therefore, their risk factors and significance remain uncertain., Objective: Toperform a whole-brain investigation of ePVSs in a large community-based cohort., Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study analyzed data from the Atrial Fibrillation substudy of the population-based Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. Demographic, vascular risk, and cardiovascular disease data were collected from September 2016 to May 2018. Brain magnetic resonance imaging was performed from March 2018 to July 2019. The reported analysis was conducted between August and October 2022. A total of 1026 participants with available brain magnetic resonance imaging data and complete information on demographic characteristics and vascular risk factors were included., Main Outcomes and Measures: Enlarged perivascular spaces were quantified using a fully automated deep learning algorithm. Quantified ePVS volumes were grouped into 6 anatomic locations: basal ganglia, thalamus, brainstem, frontoparietal, insular, and temporal regions, and were normalized for the respective regional volumes. The association of normalized regional ePVS volumes with demographic characteristics, vascular risk factors, neuroimaging indices, and prevalent cardiovascular disease was explored using generalized linear models., Results: In the 1026 participants, mean (SD) age was 72 (8) years; 541 (53%) of the participants were women. Basal ganglia ePVS volume was positively associated with age (β = 3.59 × 10-3; 95% CI, 2.80 × 10-3 to 4.39 × 10-3), systolic blood pressure (β = 8.35 × 10-4; 95% CI, 5.19 × 10-4 to 1.15 × 10-3), use of antihypertensives (β = 3.29 × 10-2; 95% CI, 1.92 × 10-2 to 4.67 × 10-2), and negatively associated with Black race (β = -3.34 × 10-2; 95% CI, -5.08 × 10-2 to -1.59 × 10-2). Thalamic ePVS volume was positively associated with age (β = 5.57 × 10-4; 95% CI, 2.19 × 10-4 to 8.95 × 10-4) and use of antihypertensives (β = 1.19 × 10-2; 95% CI, 6.02 × 10-3 to 1.77 × 10-2). Insular region ePVS volume was positively associated with age (β = 1.18 × 10-3; 95% CI, 7.98 × 10-4 to 1.55 × 10-3). Brainstem ePVS volume was smaller in Black than in White participants (β = -5.34 × 10-3; 95% CI, -8.26 × 10-3 to -2.41 × 10-3). Frontoparietal ePVS volume was positively associated with systolic blood pressure (β = 1.14 × 10-4; 95% CI, 3.38 × 10-5 to 1.95 × 10-4) and negatively associated with age (β = -3.38 × 10-4; 95% CI, -5.40 × 10-4 to -1.36 × 10-4). Temporal region ePVS volume was negatively associated with age (β = -1.61 × 10-2; 95% CI, -2.14 × 10-2 to -1.09 × 10-2), as well as Chinese American (β = -2.35 × 10-1; 95% CI, -3.83 × 10-1 to -8.74 × 10-2) and Hispanic ethnicities (β = -1.73 × 10-1; 95% CI, -2.96 × 10-1 to -4.99 × 10-2)., Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study of ePVSs in the whole brain, increased ePVS burden in the basal ganglia and thalamus was a surrogate marker for underlying cSVD, highlighting the clinical importance of ePVSs in these locations.

Rationale: COPD is the third leading cause of death in the United States. Sphingolipids, structural membrane constituents that play a role in cellular stress and apoptosis signalling, may be involved in lung function., Methods: In the Cardiovascular Health Study, a prospective cohort of older adults, we cross-sectionally examined the association of plasma levels of 17 sphingolipid species with lung function and COPD. Multivariable linear regression and logistic regression were used to evaluate associations of sphingolipid concentrations with forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV 1 ) and odds of COPD, respectively., Results: Of the 17 sphingolipids evaluated, ceramide-18 (Cer-18) and sphingomyelin-18 (SM-18) were associated with lower FEV 1 values (-0.061 L per two-fold higher Cer-18, p=0.001; -0.092 L per two-fold higher SM-18, p=0.002) after correction for multiple testing. Several other associations were significant at a 0.05 level, but did not reach statistical significance after correction for multiple testing. Specifically, Cer-18 and SM-18 were associated with higher odds of COPD (odds ratio per two-fold higher Cer-18 1.29, p=0.03 and SM-18 1.73, p=0.008). Additionally, Cer-16 and SM-16 were associated with lower FEV 1 values, and Cer-14, SM-14 and SM-16 with a higher odds of COPD., Conclusion: In this large cross-sectional study, specific ceramides and sphingomyelins were associated with reduced lung function in a population-based study. Future studies are needed to examine whether these biomarkers are associated with longitudinal change in FEV 1 within individuals or with incident COPD., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest: The authors have nothing to disclose., (Copyright ©The authors 2023.)

Background Abnormalities in left atrial (LA) function often occur before LA structural changes and clinically identified atrial fibrillation (AF). Little is known about the relationship between LA strain and the risk of subclinical atrial arrhythmias detected from extended ambulatory cardiac monitoring. Methods and Results A total of 1441 participants of MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) completed speckle-tracking echocardiography and cardiac monitoring during 2016 to 2018 (mean age, 73 years); participants in AF during echocardiography or during the entire cardiac monitoring period were excluded. Absolute values of LA reservoir, booster pump, and conduit strains were measured. We evaluated associations of LA strain with monitor-detected AF, premature atrial contractions, and supraventricular tachycardia. Primary analyses adjusted for demographic variables, blood pressure, diabetes, smoking, and clinical cardiovascular disease. Cardiac monitoring (median, 14 days) detected AF in 3%. Each SD (4.0%) lower (worse) LA booster pump strain was associated with 84% higher risk of monitor-detected AF (95% CI, 30%-162%), 39% higher premature atrial contraction frequency (95% CI, 27%-53%), and 19% higher supraventricular tachycardia frequency (95% CI, 10%-29%). Additional adjustment for NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide), LA volume index, tissue Doppler a' peak velocity, left ventricular ejection fraction, and global longitudinal strain had little impact on associations. Findings were similar for LA reservoir strain and null for LA conduit strain. Conclusions In a multiethnic community-based cohort, impaired LA strain was an important correlate of subclinical atrial arrhythmias, even after adjustment for conventional measures of LA structure and function.

Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with increased stroke risk and accelerated cognitive decline, but the association of early manifestations of left atrial (LA) impairment with subclinical changes in brain structure is unclear. We investigated whether abnormal LA structure and function, greater supraventricular ectopy, and intermittent AF are associated with small vessel disease on magnetic resonance imaging of the brain. Methods and Results In the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, 967 participants completed 14-day ambulatory electrocardiographic monitoring, speckle tracking echocardiography and, a median 17 months later, magnetic resonance imaging of the brain. We assessed associations of LA volume index and reservoir strain, supraventricular ectopy, and prevalent AF with brain magnetic resonance imaging measures of small vessel disease and atrophy. The mean age of participants was 72 years; 53% were women. In multivariable models, LA enlargement was associated with lower white matter fractional anisotropy and greater prevalence of microbleeds; reduced LA strain, indicating worse LA function, was associated with more microbleeds. More premature atrial contractions were associated with lower total gray matter volume. Compared with no AF, intermittent AF (prevalent AF with <100% AF during electrocardiographic monitoring) was associated with lower white matter fractional anisotropy (-0.25 SDs [95% CI, -0.44 to -0.07]) and greater prevalence of microbleeds (prevalence ratio: 1.42 [95% CI, 1.12-1.79]). Conclusions In individuals without a history of stroke or transient ischemic attack, alterations of LA structure and function, including enlargement, reduced strain, frequent premature atrial contractions, and intermittent AF, were associated with increased markers of small vessel disease. Detailed assessment of LA structure and function and extended ECG monitoring may enable early identification of individuals at greater risk of small vessel disease.

Background: Epoxyeicosatrienoic acids (EETs) are metabolites of arachidonic acid that may impact atherosclerosis, and animal experimental studies suggest EETs protect cardiac function. Plasma EETs are mostly esterified to phospholipids and part of an active pool. To address the limited information about EETs and CVD in humans, we conducted a prospective study of total plasma EETs (free + esterified) and diabetes-related CVD in the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS)., Methods: We measured 4 EET species and their metabolites, dihydroxyepoxyeicosatrienoic acids (DHETs), in plasma samples from 892 CHS participants with type 2 diabetes. We determined the association of EETs and DHETs with incident myocardial infarction (MI) and ischemic stroke using Cox regression., Findings: During follow-up (median 7.5 years), we identified 150 MI and 134 ischemic strokes. In primary, multivariable analyses, elevated levels of each EET species were associated with non-significant lower risk of incident MI (for example, hazard ratio for 1 SD higher 14,15-EET: 0.86, 95% CI: 0.72-1.02; p=0.08). The EETs-MI associations became significant in analyses further adjusted for DHETs (hazard ratio for 1 SD higher 14,15-EET adjusted for 14,15-DHET: 0.76, 95% CI: 0.63-0.91; p=0.004). Elevated EET levels were associated with higher risk of ischemic stroke in primary but not secondary analyses. Three DHET species were associated with higher risk of ischemic stroke in all analyses., Interpretation: Findings from this prospective study complement the extensive studies in animal models showing EETs protect cardiac function and provide new information in humans. Replication is needed to confirm the associations., Funding: US National Institutes of Health., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests The following authors declare funding from the U.S. National Institute of Health (NIH): RNL, BMcK, NS,PNJ, BMP, AMF, JGU, CS, and IBK. The other authors disclosed no conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background: Plasma ceramides and sphingomyelins have been independently linked to diabetes risk, glucose and insulin levels, and the risk of several cardiovascular (CVD) outcomes. However, whether individual ceramide and sphingomyelin species contribute to CVD risk among people with type 2 diabetes is uncertain. Our goal was to evaluate associations of 4 ceramide and 4 sphingomyelin species with incident CVD in a longitudinal population-based study among American Indians with diabetes., Methods: This analysis included participants with prevalent type 2 diabetes from two cohorts: a prospective cohort of 597 participants in the Strong Heart Family Study (116 incident CVD cases; mean age: 49 years; average length of follow-up: 14 years), and a nested case-control sample of 267 participants in the Strong Heart Study (78 cases of CVD and 189 controls; mean age: 61 years; average time until incident CVD in cases: 3.8 years). The average onset of diabetes was 7 years prior to sphingolipid measurement. Sphingolipid species were measured using liquid chromatography and mass spectrometry. Cox regression and logistic regression were used to assess associations of sphingolipid species with incident CVD; results were combined across cohorts using inverse-variance weighted meta-analysis., Results: There were 194 cases of incident CVD in the two cohorts. In meta-analysis of the 2 cohort results, higher plasma levels of Cer-16 (ceramide with acylated palmitic acid) were associated with higher CVD risk (HR per two-fold higher Cer-16: 1.85; 95% CI 1.05-3.25), and higher plasma levels of sphingomyelin species with a very long chain saturated fatty acid were associated with lower CVD risk (HR per two-fold higher SM-22: 0.48; 95% CI 0.26-0.87), although none of the associations met our pre-specified threshold for statistical significance of p = 0.006., Conclusions: While replication of the findings from the SHS in other populations is warranted, our findings add to a growing body of research suggesting that ceramides, in particular Cer-16, not only are associated with higher diabetes risk, but may also be associated with higher CVD risk after diabetes onset. We also find support for the hypothesis that sphingomyelins with a very long chain saturated fatty acid are associated with lower CVD risk among adults with type 2 diabetes., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Background Cardiovascular risk factors are associated with cognitive decline and dementia. Magnetic resonance imaging provides sensitive measurement of brain morphology and vascular brain injury. However, associations of risk factors with brain magnetic resonance imaging findings have largely been studied in White participants. We investigated associations of race, ethnicity, and cardiovascular risk factors with brain morphology and white matter (WM) injury in a diverse population. Methods and Results In the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, measures were made in 2018 to 2019 of total brain volume, gray matter and WM volume, and WM injury, including WM hyperintensity volume and WM fractional anisotropy. We assessed cross-sectional associations of race and ethnicity and of cardiovascular risk factors with magnetic resonance imaging measures. Magnetic resonance imaging data were complete in 1036 participants; 25% Black, 15% Chinese-American, 19% Hispanic, and 41% White. Mean (SD) age was 72 (8) years and 53% were women. Although WM injury was greater in Black than in White participants in a minimally adjusted model, additional adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors and socioeconomic status each attenuated this association, rendering it nonsignificant. Overall, greater average WM hyperintensity volume was associated with older age and current smoking (69% greater vs never smoking); lower fractional anisotropy was additionally associated with higher diastolic blood pressure, use of antihypertensive medication, and diabetes. Conclusions We found no statistically significant difference in measures of WM injury by race and ethnicity after adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors and socioeconomic status. In all racial and ethnic groups, older age, current smoking, hypertension, and diabetes were strongly associated with WM injury.

Background: Recent studies suggest that associations of ceramides (Cer) and sphingomyelins (SM) with health outcomes differ according to the fatty acid acylated to the sphingoid backbone. The purpose of this study was to assess associations of Cer and SM species with mortality., Methods: The study population included participants from the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS), a community-based cohort of adults aged ≥65 years who were followed from 1992-2015 (n = 4612). Associations of plasma Cer and SM species carrying long-chain (i.e., 16:0) and very-long-chain (i.e., 20:0, 22:0, 24:0) saturated fatty acids with mortality were assessed using Cox proportional hazards models., Results: During a median follow-up of 10.2 years, 4099 deaths occurred. High concentrations of Cer and SM carrying fatty acid 16:0 were each associated with an increased risk of mortality. Conversely, high concentrations of several ceramide and sphingomyelin species carrying longer fatty acids were each associated with a decreased risk of mortality. The hazard ratios for total mortality per 2-fold difference in each Cer and SM species were: 1.89 (95% CI), 1.65-2.17 for Cer-16, 0.79 (95% CI, 0.70-0.88) for Cer-22, 0.74 (95% CI, 0.65-0.84) for Cer-24, 2.51 (95% CI, 2.01-3.14) for SM-16, 0.68 (95% CI, 0.58-0.79) for SM-20, 0.57 (95% CI, 0.49-0.67) for SM-22, and 0.66 (0.57-0.75) for SM-24. We found no association of Cer-20 with risk of death., Conclusions: Associations of Cer and SM with the risk of death differ according to the length of their acylated saturated fatty acid. Future studies are needed to explore mechanisms underlying these relationships., (© American Association for Clinical Chemistry 2021. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

COVID-19 has significant case fatality. Glucocorticoids are the only treatment shown to improve survival, but only among patients requiring supplemental oxygen. WHO advises patients to seek medical care for "trouble breathing," but hypoxemic patients frequently have no respiratory symptoms. Our cohort study of hospitalized COVID-19 patients shows that respiratory symptoms are uncommon and not associated with mortality. By contrast, objective signs of respiratory compromise-oxygen saturation and respiratory rate-are associated with markedly elevated mortality. Our findings support expanding guidelines to include at-home assessment of oxygen saturation and respiratory rate in order to expedite life-saving treatments patients to high-risk COVID-19 patients., (© 2021 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Importance: Although rodent studies suggest that trimethylamine N-oxide (TMAO) influences glucose homeostasis and risk of type 2 diabetes, evidence in humans is limited., Objective: To examine the associations of serial measures of plasma TMAO and related metabolite concentrations with incident type 2 diabetes, fasting plasma insulin and glucose levels, and the Gutt insulin sensitivity index (ISI)., Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective cohort design assessed the association of plasma TMAO and related metabolite concentrations with diabetes outcome, whereas a cross-sectional design assessed the association with insulin and glucose levels and Gutt ISI. The participants were a cohort of older US adults from the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS). Data from June 1989 to May 1990, from November 1992 to June 1993, and from June 1995 to June 1997 were included, with follow-up through June 2010. Levels of TMAO and related metabolites were measured in CHS plasma samples. Data were analyzed from July 2019 to September 2020., Exposures: Plasma concentrations of TMAO, carnitine, betaine, choline, crotonobetaine, and γ-butyrobetaine, measured by high-performance liquid chromatography and mass spectrometry., Main Outcomes and Measures: Linear regression for associations of TMAO and related metabolites with insulin and glucose levels and Gutt ISI, and proportional hazards regression for associations with diabetes., Results: The study included 4442 participants without diabetes at baseline (mean [SD] age, 73 [6] years at entry; 2710 [61%] women). In multivariable analyses, plasma TMAO, carnitine, crotonobetaine, and γ-butyrobetaine concentrations were positively associated with fasting insulin level (insulin mean geometric ratio comparing fifth with first quintiles of metabolite concentration: 1.07 [95% CI, 1.04-1.10] for TMAO; 1.07 [95% CI, 1.03-1.10] for carnitine; 1.05 [95% CI, 1.02-1.08] for crotonobetaine; and 1.06 [95% CI, 1.02-1.09] for γ-butyrobetaine). In contrast, betaine and choline concentrations were associated with greater insulin sensitivity (mean difference in Gutt ISI comparing fifth with first quintiles: 6.46 [95% CI, 4.32-8.60] and 2.27 [95% CI, 0.16-4.38], respectively). Incident diabetes was identified in 661 participants during a median 12.1 (interquartile range, 6.9-17.1) years of follow-up. In multivariable analyses, TMAO and metabolites were not significantly associated with type 2 diabetes risk (hazard ratios of diabetes comparing fifth with first quintile: 1.20 [95% CI, 0.94-1.55] for TMAO; 0.96 [95% CI, 0.74-1.24] for choline; 0.88 [95% CI, 0.67-1.15] for betaine; 1.07 [95% CI, 0.83-1.37] for carnitine; 0.79 [95% CI, 0.60-1.04] for γ-butyrobetaine; and 1.06 [95% CI, 0.83-1.35] for crotonobetaine)., Conclusions and Relevance: Plasma TMAO and related metabolites were not significantly associated with type 2 diabetes among older adults. The metabolites TMAO, carnitine, γ-butyrobetaine, and crotonobetaine may be associated with insulin resistance, and betaine and choline may be associated with greater insulin sensitivity, but temporality of the associations was not established.

Background: Epoxyeicosatrienoic acids (EETs) are metabolites of arachidonic acid with multiple biological functions. Rodent experiments suggest EETs play a role in insulin sensitivity and diabetes, but evidence in humans is limited. To address this knowledge gap, we conducted a case-cohort study in the Strong Heart Family Study, a prospective cohort among American Indians., Methods: We measured 4 EET species and 4 species of corresponding downstream metabolites, dihydroxyeicosatrieonic acids (DHETs), in plasma samples from 1161 participants, including 310 with type 2 diabetes. We estimated the associations of total (esterified and free) EETs and DHETs with incident diabetes risk, adjusting for known risk factors. We also examined cross-sectional associations with plasma fasting insulin and glucose in the case-cohort and in 271 participants without diabetes from the older Strong Heart Study cohort, and meta-analyzed the results from the 2 cohorts., Findings: We observed no significant association of total EET or DHET levels with incident diabetes. In addition, plasma EETs were not associated with plasma insulin or plasma glucose. However, higher plasma 14,15-DHET was associated with lower plasma insulin and lower plasma glucose., Interpretation: In this first prospective study of EETs and diabetes, we found no evidence for a role of total plasma EETs in diabetes. The novel associations of 14,15-DHET with insulin and glucose warrant replication and exploration of possible mechanisms., Funding: US National Institutes of Health., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest Drs Lemaitre, Jensen, Fretts, McKnight and Sitlani report grants from the National Institutes of Health during the conduct of the study. Dr. Psaty reports serving on the Steering Committee of the Yale Open Data Access Project funded by Johnson & Johnson. The other authors have nothing to disclose., (Copyright © 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background High levels of supraventricular ectopy are associated with greater risk of atrial fibrillation, stroke, and death. Little information is available about differences by race/ethnicity in the extent of supraventricular ectopy, or about whether high levels of supraventricular ectopy are associated with impaired left atrial (LA) function and LA enlargement. Methods and Results In the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis), 1148 participants (47% men; mean age, 67 years) had cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging in 2010 to 2012, followed by 14-day ambulatory electrocardiographic monitoring in 2016 to 2018. We analyzed participant characteristics and cardiovascular magnetic resonance measures of LA function and structure in relation to average count of premature atrial contractions (PACs) per hour and average number of runs per day of supraventricular tachycardia. In adjusted regression analyses, older age, male sex, White race, elevated NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide), and a history of clinically detected atrial fibrillation were associated with more PACs/hour. Chinese and Hispanic participants had on average fewer PACs/hour than White participants (Chinese participants, 31% less [95% CI, 8%-49%]; Hispanic participants, 38% less [95% CI, 19%-52%]). Greater LA total emptying fraction was associated with fewer PACs/hour (per SD, 16% fewer PACs/hour [95% CI, 7%-25% fewer PACs/hour]). Larger LA minimum volume was associated with more PACs/hour (per SD, 7% more PACs/hour [95% CI, 2%-13% more PACs/hour]). Associations of LA volumes with runs of supraventricular tachycardia/day were similar in direction but were weaker. Conclusions Impaired LA function and LA enlargement were associated with more PACs/hour on extended ambulatory electrocardiographic monitoring. Measurement of supraventricular ectopy may provide information about the extent of atrial myopathy.

Recent studies suggest that the type of saturated fatty acid bound to sphingolipids influences the biological activity of those sphingolipids. However, it is unknown whether associations of sphingolipids with diabetes may differ by the identity of bound lipid species. Here, we investigated associations of 15 ceramide (Cer) and SM species (i.e., all sphingolipids, measured with coefficient of variation less than 20%) with incident type 2 diabetes in the Cardiovascular Health Study (n = 3,645), a large cohort study of cardiovascular disease among elderly adults who were followed from 1989 to 2015. Diabetes incidence was defined as fasting glucose ≥126 mg/dl or nonfasting glucose ≥200 mg/dl; reported use of insulin or oral hypoglycemic medication; or documentation of diabetes diagnosis through the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services records. Associations of each sphingolipid with incident diabetes were assessed using a Cox proportional hazards regression model. We found that higher circulating levels of Cer with acylated palmitic acid (Cer-16), stearic acid containing Cer (Cer-18), arachidic acid containing Cer (Cer-20), and behenic acid containing Cer (Cer-22) were each associated with a higher risk of diabetes. The hazard ratios for incident diabetes per 1 SD higher log levels of each Cer species were as follows: 1.21 (95% CI: 1.09-1.34) for Cer-16, 1.23 (95% CI: 1.10-1.37) for Cer-18, 1.14 (95% CI: 1.02-1.26) for Cer-20, and 1.18 (95% CI: 1.06-1.32) for Cer-22. In conclusion, higher levels of Cer-16, Cer-18, Cer-20, and Cer-22 were associated with a higher risk of diabetes., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest with the contents of this article., (Copyright © 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Purpose: Opioids, gabapentinoids, and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) may have adverse cardiovascular effects. We evaluated whether these medications were associated with incident clinically detected atrial fibrillation (AF) or monitor-detected supraventricular ectopy (SVE), including premature atrial contractions (PACs) and supraventricular tachycardia (SVT)., Methods: We used data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA), a cohort study that enrolled 6814 Americans without clinically detected cardiovascular disease in 2000 to 2002. At the 2016 to 2018 examination, 1557 individuals received ambulatory electrocardiographic (ECG) monitoring. Longitudinal analyses investigated time-varying medication exposures at the first five exams (through 2011) in relation to incident clinically detected AF through 2015 using Cox proportional hazards regression models. Cross-sectional analyses investigated medication exposures at 2016 to 2018 examination and the risk of monitor-detected SVE using linear regression models., Results: The longitudinal cohort included 6652 participants. During 12.4 years of mean follow-up, 982 participants (14.7%) experienced incident clinically detected AF. Use of opioids, gabapentinoids, and NSAIDs were not associated with incident AF. The cross-sectional analysis included 1435 participants with ECG monitoring. Gabapentinoid use was associated with an 84% greater average frequency of PACs/hour (95% CI, 25%-171%) and a 44% greater average number of runs of SVT/day (95% CI, 3%-100%). No associations were found with use of opioids or NSAIDs in cross-sectional analyses., Conclusions: In this study, gabapentinoid use was associated with SVE. Given the rapid increase in gabapentinoid use, additional studies are needed to clarify whether these medications cause cardiovascular complications., (© 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: Few studies have assessed the associations of ceramides and sphingomyelins (SMs) with diabetes in humans., Objective: We assessed associations of 15 circulating ceramides and SM species with incident diabetes in 2 studies., Methods: The analysis included 435 American-Indian participants from the Strong Heart Study (nested case-control design for analyses; mean age: 57 y; 34% male; median time until diabetes 4.3 y for cases) and 1902 participants from the Strong Heart Family Study (prospective design for analyses; mean age: 37 y; 39% male; median 12.5 y of follow-up). Sphingolipid species were measured using stored plasma samples by sequential LC and MS. Using logistic regression and parametric survival models within studies, and an inverse-variance-weighted meta-analysis across studies, we examined associations of 15 ceramides and SM species with incident diabetes., Results: There were 446 cases of incident diabetes across the studies. Higher circulating concentrations of ceramides containing stearic acid (Cer-18), arachidic acid (Cer-20), and behenic acid (Cer-22) were each associated with a higher risk of diabetes. The RRs for incident diabetes per 1 SD of each log ceramide species (μM) were 1.22 (95% CI: 1.09, 1.37) for Cer-18, 1.18 (95% CI: 1.06, 1.31) for Cer-20, and 1.20 (95% CI: 1.08, 1.32) for Cer-22. Although the magnitude of the risk estimates for the association of ceramides containing lignoceric acid (Cer-24) with diabetes was similar to those for Cer-18, Cer-20, and Cer-22 (RR = 1.13; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.26), the association was not statistically significant after correction for multiple testing (P = 0.007). Ceramides carrying palmitic acid (Cer-16), SMs, glucosyl-ceramides, or a lactosyl-ceramide were not associated with diabetes risk., Conclusions: Higher concentrations of circulating Cer-18, Cer-20, and Cer-22 were associated with a higher risk of developing diabetes in 2 studies of American-Indian adults. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00005134., (Copyright © The Author(s) 2019.)

CYP2J2, a member of the Cytochrome P450 family of enzymes, is the most abundant epoxygenase in the heart and has multifunctional properties including bioactivation of arachidonic acid to epoxyeicosatrienoic acids, which, in turn, have been implicated in mediating several cardiovascular conditions. Using a proteomic approach, we found that CYP2J2 expression is lower in cardiac tissue from patients with cardiomyopathy compared to controls. In order to better elucidate the complex role played by CYP2J2 in cardiac cells, we performed targeted silencing of CYP2J2 expression in human adult ventricular cardiomyocytes and interrogated whole genome transcriptional responses. We found that knockdown of CYP2J2 elicits widespread alterations in gene expression of ventricular cardiomyocytes and leads to the activation of a diverse repertoire of programs, including those involved in ion channel signaling, development, extracellular matrix, and metabolism. Several members of the differentially up-regulated ion channel module have well-known pathogenetic roles in cardiac dysrhythmias. By leveraging causal network and upstream regulator analysis, we identified several candidate drivers of the observed transcriptional response to CYP2J2 silencing; these master regulators have been implicated in aberrant cardiac remodeling, heart failure, and myocyte injury and repair. Collectively, our study demonstrates that CYP2J2 plays a central and multifaceted role in cardiomyocyte homeostasis and provides a framework for identifying critical regulators and pathways influenced by this gene in cardiovascular health and disease.

Background Ceramides exhibit multiple biological activities that may influence the pathophysiological characteristics of atrial fibrillation (AF). Whether the length of the saturated fatty acid carried by the ceramide or their sphingomyelin precursors are associated with AF risk is not known. Methods and Results Among 4206 CHS (Cardiovascular Health Study) participants (mean age, 76 years; 40% men) who were free of prevalent AF at baseline, we identified 1198 incident AF cases over a median 8.7 years of follow-up. We examined 8 sphingolipid species: ceramide and sphingomyelin species with palmitic acid and species with very-long-chain saturated fatty acids: arachidic; behenic; and lignoceric. In adjusted Cox regression analyses, ceramides and sphingomyelins with very-long-chain saturated fatty acids were associated with reduced AF risk (ie, per 2-fold higher ceramide with behenic acid hazard ratio, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.59-0.86; sphingomyelin with behenic acid hazard ratio, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.46-0.77). In contrast, ceramides and sphingomyelins with palmitic acid were associated with increased AF risk (ceramide with palmitic acid hazard ratio, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.03-1.66; sphingomyelin with palmitic acid hazard ratio, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.18-2.55). Associations were attenuated with adjustment for NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide), but did not differ significantly by age, sex, race, body mass index, or history of coronary heart disease. Conclusions Our findings suggest that several ceramide and sphingomyelin species are associated with incident AF, and that these associations differ on the basis of the fatty acid. Ceramides and sphingomyelins with palmitic acid were associated with increased AF risk, whereas ceramides and sphingomyelins with very-long-chain saturated fatty acids were associated with reduced AF risk.

Background/objectives: Non-caloric artificial sweeteners (NAS) are marketed as healthier alternatives to sugar, but the relationship between consumption of NAS and development of diabetes is unclear. This study assessed the associations of diet soda and NAS consumption with (1) early markers of insulin and glucose homeostasis (cross-sectionally) and (2) incident diabetes (over an average of 8 years of follow-up) among American Indians, a population with high rates of obesity., Subjects/methods: The study population included Strong Heart Family Study participants without cardiovascular disease or diabetes who participated in the 2007-2009 study exam (n = 1359). Diet soda and NAS consumption were assessed using a Block food frequency questionnaire and supplemental NAS questionnaire at the study exam. Fasting plasma glucose and insulin were measured during the study exam after a 12-h overnight fast. Participants were followed for incident diabetes through December 2017 using a single phone interview and medical record review; diabetes was identified by self-report and confirmed by documentation in medical records. Associations of diet soda and NAS consumption with fasting insulin, glucose, and incident diabetes were assessed using generalized estimating equations (fasting insulin and glucose analyses) and parametric survival models with Weibull distributions (incident diabetes analyses)., Results: Just under half of participants reported regularly consuming diet soda (40%) or using NAS to sweeten their beverages (41%). During an average 8 years of follow-up, we identified 98 cases of incident diabetes. After correction for multiple comparisons, there were no statistically significant associations of reported diet soda and NAS consumption with fasting insulin, fasting glucose, or incident diabetes., Conclusions: Although reported consumption of diet soda and NAS were high, neither were associated with diabetes risk.

Background: African Americans are consistently found to have a lower prevalence of clinically detected atrial fibrillation (AF) than whites, despite a higher prevalence of major AF risk factors and higher risk of ischemic stroke. Long-term ambulatory ECG monitors provide the opportunity for unbiased AF detection. We determined differences by race/ethnicity in the prevalence of clinically detected AF and in the proportion with monitor-detected AF., Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis in the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis), a community-based cohort study that enrolled 6814 Americans free of clinically recognized cardiovascular disease in 2000 to 2002. At the 2016 to 2018 examination, 1556 individuals participated in an ancillary study involving ambulatory ECG monitoring and had follow-up for clinically detected AF since cohort entry., Results: Among 1556 participants, 41% were white, 25% African American, 21% Hispanic, and 14% Chinese; 51% were women; and the mean age was 74 years. The prevalence of clinically detected AF after 14.4 years' follow-up was 11.3% in whites, 6.6% in African Americans, 7.8% in Hispanics, and 9.9% in Chinese and was significantly lower in African Americans than in whites, in both unadjusted and risk factor-adjusted analyses (adjusted rate difference, -6.6% [95% CI, -10.1% to -3.1%]; P <0.001). By contrast, in the same individuals, the proportion with monitor-detected AF using a 14-day ambulatory ECG monitor was similar in the 4 race/ethnic groups: 7.1%, 6.4%, 6.9%, and 5.2%, respectively (compared with whites, all P >0.5)., Conclusions: The prevalence of clinically detected AF was substantially lower in African American than in white participants, without or with adjustment for AF risk factors. However, unbiased AF detection by ambulatory monitoring in the same individuals revealed little difference in the proportion with AF by race/ethnicity. These findings provide support for the hypothesis of differential detection by race/ethnicity in the clinical recognition of AF, which may have important implications for stroke prevention.

Background: Diet plays a key role in development of diabetes, and there has been recent interest in better understanding the association of dairy food intake with diabetes., Objective: This study examined the associations of full-fat and low-fat dairy food intake with incident diabetes among American Indians-a population with a high burden of diabetes., Methods: The study included participants from the Strong Heart Family Study (SHFS), a family-based study of cardiovascular disease in American Indians, free of diabetes at baseline (2001-2003) (n = 1623). Participants were 14-86-y-old at baseline and 60.8% were female. Dairy food intake was assessed using a Block food frequency questionnaire. Incident diabetes was defined using American Diabetes Association criteria. Parametric survival models with a Weibull distribution were used to evaluate the associations of full-fat and low-fat dairy food intake with incident diabetes. Serving sizes were defined as 250 mL for milk and 42.5 g for cheese., Results: We identified 277 cases of diabetes during a mean follow-up of 11 y. Reported intake of dairy foods was low [median full-fat dairy food intake: 0.11 serving/1000 kcal; median low-fat dairy food intake: 0.03 serving/1000 kcal]. Participants who reported the highest full-fat dairy food intake had a lower risk of diabetes compared to those who reported the lowest full-fat food dairy intake [HR (95% CI): 0.79 (0.59, 1.06); P-trend = 0.03, comparing extreme tertiles, after adjustment for age, sex, site, physical activity, education, smoking, diet quality, and low-fat dairy food intake]. Low-fat dairy food intake was not associated with diabetes., Conclusions: American Indians who participated in the SHFS reported low dairy food intake. Participants who reported higher full-fat dairy food intake had a lower risk of diabetes than participants who reported lower intake. These findings may be of interest to populations with low dairy food intake., (Copyright © American Society for Nutrition 2019.)

Background: Ceramides exhibit multiple biological activities that may influence the pathophysiology of heart failure. These activities may be influenced by the saturated fatty acid carried by the ceramide (Cer). However, the associations of different circulating Cer species, and their sphingomyelin (SM) precursors, with heart failure have received limited attention., Methods and Results: We studied the associations of plasma Cer and SM species with incident heart failure in the Cardiovascular Health Study. We examined 8 species: Cer and SM with palmitic acid (Cer-16 and SM-16), species with arachidic acid (Cer-20 and SM-20), species with behenic acid (Cer-22 and SM-22), and species with lignoceric acid (Cer-24 and SM-24). During a median follow-up of 9.4 years, we identified 1179 cases of incident heart failure among 4249 study participants. In Cox regression analyses adjusted for risk factors, higher levels of Cer-16 and SM-16 were associated with higher risk of incident heart failure (hazard ratio for one SD increase:1.25 [95% CI, 1.16-1.36] and 1.28 [1.18-1.40], respectively). In contrast, higher levels of Cer-22 were associated with lower risk of heart failure in multivariable analyses further adjusted for Cer-16 (hazard ratio, 0.85 [0.78-0.92]); and higher levels of SM-20, SM-22 and SM-24 were associated with lower risk of heart failure in analyses further adjusted for SM-16 (hazard ratios, 0.83 [0.77-0.90], 0.81 [0.75-0.88], and 0.83 [0.77-0.90], respectively). No statistically significant interactions with age, sex, black race, body mass index, or baseline coronary heart disease were detected. Similar associations were observed for heart failure with preserved (n=529) or reduced (n=348) ejection fraction., Conclusions: This study shows associations of higher plasma levels of Cer-16 and SM-16 with increased risk of heart failure and higher levels of Cer-22, SM-20, SM-22, and SM-24 with decreased risk of heart failure., Clinical Trial Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT00005133.

Background: Animal studies suggest sphingolipids as an early marker of impaired glucose metabolism; however, research in humans is limited. We evaluated whether individual sphingolipid species were associated with fasting plasma glucose and incident impaired fasting glucose in a longitudinal cohort study., Methods: We measured 15 sphingolipid species from blood samples collected in 2001-2003 from 2145 participants without prevalent diabetes in the Strong Heart Family Study. Fasting plasma glucose was measured in blood samples collected at baseline and follow-up (mean 5.5 years after baseline)., Findings: The average age of study participants was 38 years; 41% were men. Ceramide, sphingomyelin, and glucosylceramide species levels were higher in older participants; lactosyl-ceramide levels were higher in participants with lower BMIs. In adjusted analyses, greater concentrations of most ceramide species and lower lactosyl-ceramide with palmitic acid (LC-16) were associated with higher glucose levels at baseline. We did not observe associations of sphingomyelin species or glucosyl-ceramide species with glucose levels. Associations of sphingolipid levels with fasting glucose levels at follow-up were similar but had greater uncertainty than associations with baseline glucose. Although no statistically significant associations of sphingolipids with incident impaired fasting glucose were present, results were similar to glucose analyses., Interpretation: We identified several ceramide species associated with higher fasting glucose levels and one sphingolipid, LC-16, that was associated with lower fasting glucose levels. These findings compliment previous research, which linked these sphingolipids with fasting insulin levels, and suggest that higher levels of these ceramides and lower LC-16 may be an early marker of impaired glucose metabolism. FUND: US National Institutes Health., (Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background: Patch electrocardiographic (ECG) monitors permit extended noninvasive ambulatory monitoring. To guide use of these devices, information is needed about their performance. We sought to determine in a large general population sample the acceptability of patch ECG monitors, the yield of arrhythmia detection, and the consistency of findings in participants monitored twice., Methods: In the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, 1122 participants completed one or two monitoring episodes using the Zio Patch XT, a single-channel ECG patch monitor capable of recording for 14 days. Recordings were analyzed for atrial fibrillation (AF), atrial flutter, atrioventricular block, pauses, and supraventricular and ventricular ectopy., Results: The mean(SD) age at the time of monitoring was 75(8) years, 52% were men, and 15% had a prior history of clinically-recognized AF/flutter. The median monitoring duration was 13.8 days. Among 804 participants with no prior clinical history of AF/flutter and at least 12 days of monitoring on a single device, AF/flutter was detected in 32 (4.0%); in 38% of these, AF/flutter was first detected during days 3 through 12 of monitoring. In participants monitored twice, findings from the two devices showed excellent agreement for supraventricular and ventricular ectopic beats per hour, but only fair agreement for high-grade atrioventricular block and pauses of >3 s duration., Conclusions: In a general population of older individuals, new diagnoses of AF/flutter were made in 4.0% of participants without a prior history. A single monitoring episode accurately estimated rates of supraventricular and ventricular ectopy., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Experimental studies suggest ceramides may play a role in insulin resistance. However, the relationships of circulating ceramides and related sphingolipids with plasma insulin have been underexplored in humans. We measured 15 ceramide and sphingomyelin species in fasting baseline samples from the Strong Heart Family Study (SHFS), a prospective cohort of American Indians. We examined sphingolipid associations with both baseline and follow-up measures of plasma insulin, HOMA of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), and HOMA of β-cell function (HOMA-B) after adjustment for risk factors. Among the 2,086 participants without diabetes, higher levels of plasma ceramides carrying the fatty acids 16:0 (16 carbons, 0 double bond), 18:0, 20:0, or 22:0 were associated with higher plasma insulin and higher HOMA-IR at baseline and at follow-up an average of 5.4 years later. For example, a twofold higher baseline concentration of ceramide 16:0 was associated with 14% higher baseline insulin ( P < 0.0001). Associations between sphingomyelin species carrying 18:0, 20:0, 22:0, or 24:0 and insulin were modified by BMI ( P < 0.003): higher levels were associated with lower fasting insulin, HOMA-IR, and HOMA-B among those with normal BMI. Our study suggests lowering circulating ceramides might be a target in prediabetes and targeting circulating sphingomyelins should take into account BMI., (© 2018 by the American Diabetes Association.)

Objective: To evaluate the association of salt consumption with blood pressure in Viet Nam, a developing country with a high level of salt consumption., Design and Setting: Analysis of a nationally representative sample of Vietnamese adults 25-65 years of age who were surveyed using the World Health Organization STEPwise approach to Surveillance protocol. Participants who reported acute illness, pregnancy, or current use of antihypertensive medications were excluded. Daily salt consumption was estimated from fasting mid-morning spot urine samples. Associations of salt consumption with systolic blood pressure and prevalent hypertension were assessed using adjusted linear and generalized linear models. Interaction terms were tested to assess differences by age, smoking, alcohol consumption, and rural/urban status., Results: The analysis included 2,333 participants (mean age: 37 years, 46% male, 33% urban). The average estimated salt consumption was 10g/day. No associations of salt consumption with blood pressure or prevalent hypertension were observed at a national scale in men or women. The associations did not differ in subgroups defined by age, smoking, or alcohol consumption; however, associations differed between urban and rural participants (p-value for interaction of urban/rural status with salt consumption, p = 0.02), suggesting that higher salt consumption may be associated with higher systolic blood pressure in urban residents but lower systolic blood pressure in rural residents., Conclusions: Although there was no evidence of an association at a national level, associations of salt consumption with blood pressure differed between urban and rural residents in Viet Nam. The reasons for this differential association are not clear, and given the large rate of rural to urban migration experienced in Viet Nam, this topic warrants further investigation.

Background: More than six million American Indians live in the United States, and an estimated 1.6 million will be aged ≥65 years old by 2050 tripling in numbers since 2012. Physical functioning and related factors in this population are poorly understood. Our study aimed to assess lower body functioning and identify the prevalence and correlates of "good" functioning in a multi-tribe, community-based sample of older American Indians., Methods: Assessments used the Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB). "Good" lower body functioning was defined as a total SPPB score of ≥10. Potential correlates included demographic characteristics, study site, anthropometrics, cognitive functioning, depressive symptomatology, grip strength, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, heart disease, prior stroke, smoking, alcohol use, and over-the-counter medication use for arthritis or pain. Data were collected between 2010 and 2013 by the Cerebrovascular Disease and Its Consequences in American Indians Study from community-dwelling adults aged ≥60 years (n = 818)., Results: The sample's mean age was 73 ± 5.9 years. After adjustment for age and study site, average SPPB scores were 7.0 (95% CI, 6.8, 7.3) in women and 7.8 (95% CI, 7.5, 8.2) in men. Only 25% of the sample were classified with "good" lower body functioning. When treating lower body functioning as a continuous measure and adjusting for age, gender, and study site, the correlates of better functioning that we identified were younger age, male gender, married status, higher levels of education, higher annual household income, Southern Plains study site, lower waist-hip ratio, better cognitive functioning, stronger grip strength, lower levels of depressive symptomatology, alcohol consumption, and the absence of hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and heart disease. In our fully adjusted models, correlates of "good" lower body functioning were younger age, higher annual household income, better cognitive functioning, stronger grip, and the absence of diabetes mellitus and heart disease., Conclusions: These results suggest that "good" lower body functioning is uncommon in this population, whereas its correlates are similar to those found in studies of other older adult populations. Future efforts should include the development or cultural tailoring of interventions to improve lower body functioning in older American Indians.

Background: The inflammatory biomarker galectin-3 contributes to pathologic conditions such as heart failure and stimulates murine thrombogenesis. Its association with venous thromboembolism (VTE) has been sparsely studied., Objectives: To assess the prospective association of plasma galectin-3 and the LGALS3 rs4644 SNP with VTE incidence., Methods: We measured plasma galectin-3 in 9,916 participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study cohort in 1996 - 1998 and identified VTEs through 2013. Using Cox regression, we estimated the hazard ratio associating galectin-3 with incident VTE over a median of 13.9 years. Replication was sought in the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS)., Results: ARIC included 21.8% blacks and 56.2% females with mean baseline age of 62.7 years. The incidence rate of VTE (n=389 events) increased across quintiles of galectin-3, with hazard ratios (95% CI) of 1 (reference), 1.13 (0.80 - 1.61), 1.00 (0.70 - 1.43), 1.36 (0.96 - 1.91), and 1.55 (1.09 - 2.19) (p-trend = 0.005), adjusted for age, sex, race, body mass index, diabetes status, and renal function. Results did not replicate in the CHS (124 VTE), but meta-analysis of both studies yielded a pooled hazard ratio (95% CI) for 1 SD increment in log galectin-3 of 1.10 (1.00 - 1.22). In ARIC, the C allele of rs4644 in the LGALS3 gene was associated with higher galectin-3 level, and in whites, with an increased rate of VTE., Conclusion: Galectin-3 levels were associated positively with VTE incidence.

Background and Purpose: Whether consideration of carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) and carotid plaque would improve risk prediction of ischemic stroke in persons with atrial fibrillation (AF) is unknown. The purpose of this study was to assess the improvement in risk prediction of stroke by adding cIMT and carotid plaque to the CHA2DS2-VASc (variables age, heart failure, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, myocardial infarction, and peripheral arterial disease) score., Methods: We included participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study (mean age, 63 years) who developed AF within 5 years after carotid measurement, were not on warfarin, and had no prior stroke at AF diagnosis. AF was ascertained from study ECGs and diagnosis codes, and stroke was physician adjudicated. Multivariable Cox models were used to assess association between carotid indices and ischemic stroke. Improvement in 10-year risk prediction of stroke was assessed by the C-statistic, net reclassification improvement, and relative integrated discrimination improvement., Results: There were 81 (11.2%) stroke events that occurred among 724 participants with AF during a mean follow-up of 8.5 years. Increased cIMT and presence of carotid plaque were significantly associated with increased stroke risk. The addition of cIMT+plaque to the CHA2DS2-VASc score marginally increased the C-statistic (95% confidence interval) from 0.685 (0.623-0.747) to 0.698 (0.638-0.759). The net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement for cIMT+plaque were 0.091 (95% confidence interval, 0.012-0.170) and 0.101 (95% confidence interval, 0.002-0.226), respectively., Conclusions: Increased cIMT and presence of carotid plaque are associated with increased risk of ischemic stroke in individuals with AF. Furthermore, they may improve risk prediction of stroke, over and above the CHA2DS2-VASc score., (© 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.)

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with an increased risk of ischemic stroke and cardiovascular (CV) death. Whether modifiable lifestyle risk factors are associated with these CV outcomes in AF is unknown. Among Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study and Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) participants with incident AF, we estimated the risk of composite endpoint of ischemic stroke or CV death associated with candidate modifiable risk factor (smoking, heavy alcohol consumption, or high body mass index [BMI]), and computed the C-statistic, net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) of incorporating each factor into the CHA2DS2-VASc. Among 1222 ARIC (mean age: 63.4) and 756 CHS (mean age: 79.1) participants with incident AF, during mean follow-up of 6.9 years and 5.7 years, there were 332 and 335 composite events respectively. Compared with never smokers, current smokers had a higher incidence of the composite endpoint in ARIC [HR: 1.65 (1.21-2.26)] but not in CHS [HR: 1.05 (0.69-1.61)]. In ARIC, the addition of current smoking did not improve risk prediction over and above the CHA2DS2-VASc. No significant associations were observed with alcohol consumption or BMI with CVD outcomes in AF patients from either cohort. Smoking is associated with an increased risk of ischemic stroke or CV death in ARIC, which comprised mostly middle-aged to young-old (65-74 years), but not in CHS, which comprised mostly middle-old or oldest-old (≥75 years) adults with AF. However, addition of smoking to the CHA2DS2-VASc score did not improve risk prediction of these outcomes.

The Cerebrovascular Disease and its Consequences in American Indians (CDCAI) Study recruited surviving members of a 20-year, longitudinal, population-based cohort of American Indians focused on cardiovascular disease, its risk factors, and its consequences. The goal of the CDCAI Study is to characterize the burden, risk factors, and manifestations of vascular brain injury identified on cranial MRI. The CDCAI Study investigators enrolled 1,033 participants aged 60 and older from 11 American Indian communities and tribes in the Northern Plains, Southern Plains, and Southwestern United States. In addition to cranial MRI performed according to standardized protocols, participants underwent extensive medical interview, clinical examination, neurocognitive testing, physical function evaluation, electrocardiogram, and provided blood and urine specimens. Participants also self-administered questionnaires covering demographics, quality of life, and medical history. This report describes the design, implementation, and some of the unique challenges of this study and data collection., (© 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.)

Background: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution., Methods: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol., Findings: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa., Interpretation: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks., Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age-sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development., Methods: We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time., Findings: Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6-6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0-65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0-71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9-5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5-59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7-64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3-7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6-29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non-communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries., Interpretation: Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition--in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden--is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions., Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: After an initial episode of atrial fibrillation (AF), patients may develop long-standing persistent or permanent AF., Objective: We evaluated whether use of statins, angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors, angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs), or β-blockers is associated with lower risk of long-standing persistent AF after an initial AF episode., Methods: We conducted a population-based inception cohort study of participants enrolled in Group Health, aged 30 to 84 years, with newly diagnosed AF in 2001-2004. We included only participants whose initial AF episode terminated within 6 months of onset. We ascertained the primary outcome of long-standing persistent AF from medical records, electrocardiograms, and administrative data. We determined time-varying medication use from Group Health pharmacy data., Results: Among 1317 participants with incident AF, 304 developed long-standing persistent AF. Our study suggests that current statin use versus never use may be associated with lower risk for long-standing persistent AF. However, the association was not statistically significant when adjusted for age, sex, cardiovascular risk factors, and current use of antiarrhythmic medication (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.77; 95% CI = 0.57, 1.03). In lagged analyses intended to reduce healthy user bias, current statin use 1 year prior versus never use 1 year prior was not associated with risk for long-standing persistent AF (HR = 0.91; 95% CI = 0.67, 1.24). ACE inhibitor, ARB, and β-blocker use were not associated with risk for long-standing persistent AF., Conclusions: Current statin use may confer protection that wanes after discontinuing use. Alternatively, healthy user bias or chance may explain the association. The association of statin use with long-standing persistent AF warrants further investigation., (© The Author(s) 2015.)

Background: Sick sinus syndrome (SSS) is a common indication for pacemaker implantation. Limited information exists on the association of sick sinus syndrome (SSS) with mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the general population., Methods: We studied 19,893 men and women age 45 and older in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study and the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS), two community-based cohorts, who were without a pacemaker or atrial fibrillation (AF) at baseline. Incident SSS cases were validated by review of medical charts. Incident CVD and mortality were ascertained using standardized protocols. Multivariable Cox models were used to estimate the association of incident SSS with selected outcomes., Results: During a mean follow-up of 17 years, 213 incident SSS events were identified and validated (incidence, 0.6 events per 1,000 person-years). After adjustment for confounders, SSS incidence was associated with increased mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1.39, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.14-1.70), coronary heart disease (HR 1.72, 95%CI 1.11-2.66), heart failure (HR 2.87, 95%CI 2.17-3.80), stroke (HR 1.56, 95%CI 0.99-2.46), AF (HR 5.75, 95%CI 4.43-7.46), and pacemaker implantation (HR 53.7, 95%CI 42.9-67.2). After additional adjustment for other incident CVD during follow-up, SSS was no longer associated with increased mortality, coronary heart disease, or stroke, but remained associated with higher risk of heart failure (HR 2.00, 95%CI 1.51-2.66), AF (HR 4.25, 95%CI 3.28-5.51), and pacemaker implantation (HR 25.2, 95%CI 19.8-32.1)., Conclusion: Individuals who develop SSS are at increased risk of death and CVD. The mechanisms underlying these associations warrant further investigation.

Background: The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration., Methods: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets., Findings: Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990., Interpretation: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action., Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Little is known about the incidence of and risk factors for sick sinus syndrome (SSS), a common indication for pacemaker implantation., Objectives: This study sought to describe the epidemiology of SSS., Methods: This analysis included 20,572 participants (mean baseline age 59 years, 43% male) in the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities) study and the CHS (Cardiovascular Health Study), who at baseline were free of prevalent atrial fibrillation and pacemaker therapy, had a heart rate of ≥ 50 beats/min unless using beta blockers, and were identified as of white or black race. Incident SSS cases were identified by hospital discharge International Classification of Disease-revision 9-Clinical Modification code 427.81 and validated by medical record review., Results: During an average 17 years of follow-up, 291 incident SSS cases were identified (unadjusted rate 0.8 per 1,000 person-years). Incidence increased with age (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.73; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.47 to 2.05 per 5-year increment), and blacks had a 41% lower risk of SSS than whites (HR: 0.59; 95% CI: 0.37 to 0.98). Incident SSS was associated with greater baseline body mass index, height, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, and cystatin C, with longer QRS interval, with lower heart rate, and with prevalent hypertension, right bundle branch block, and cardiovascular disease. We project that the annual number of new SSS cases in the United States will increase from 78,000 in 2012 to 172,000 in 2060., Conclusions: Blacks have a lower risk of SSS than whites, and several cardiovascular risk factors were associated with incident SSS. With the aging of the population, the number of Americans with SSS will increase dramatically over the next 50 years., (Copyright © 2014 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)