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Background Cases of human monkeypox are rarely seen outside of west and central Africa. There are few data regarding viral kinetics or the duration of viral shedding and no licensed treatments. Two oral drugs, brincidofovir and tecovirimat, have been approved for treatment of smallpox and have demonstrated efficacy against monkeypox in animals. Our aim was to describe the longitudinal clinical course of monkeypox in a high-income setting, coupled with viral dynamics, and any adverse events related to novel antiviral therapies. Methods In this retrospective observational study, we report the clinical features, longitudinal virological findings, and response to off-label antivirals in seven patients with monkeypox who were diagnosed in the UK between 2018 and 2021, identified through retrospective case-note review. This study included all patients who were managed in dedicated high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) centres in Liverpool, London, and Newcastle, coordinated via a national HCID network. Findings We reviewed all cases since the inception of the HCID (airborne) network between Aug 15, 2018, and Sept 10, 2021, identifying seven patients. Of the seven patients, four were men and three were women. Three acquired monkeypox in the UK: one patient was a health-care worker who acquired the virus nosocomially, and one patient who acquired the virus abroad transmitted it to an adult and child within their household cluster. Notable disease features included viraemia, prolonged monkeypox virus DNA detection in upper respiratory tract swabs, reactive low mood, and one patient had a monkeypox virus PCR-positive deep tissue abscess. Five patients spent more than 3 weeks (range 22–39 days) in isolation due to prolonged PCR positivity. Three patients were treated with brincidofovir (200 mg once a week orally), all of whom developed elevated liver enzymes resulting in cessation of therapy. One patient was treated with tecovirimat (600 mg twice daily for 2 weeks orally), experienced no adverse effects, and had a shorter duration of viral shedding and illness (10 days hospitalisation) compared with the other six patients. One patient experienced a mild relapse 6 weeks after hospital discharge. Interpretation Human monkeypox poses unique challenges, even to well resourced health-care systems with HCID networks. Prolonged upper respiratory tract viral DNA shedding after skin lesion resolution challenged current infection prevention and control guidance. There is an urgent need for prospective studies of antivirals for this disease.

Water resources management is a critical issue in Africa where many regions are subjected to sequential droughts and floods. The objective of our work was to assess spatiotemporal variability in water storage and related controls (climate, human intervention) in major African aquifers and consider approaches toward more sustainable development. Different approaches were used to track water storage, including GRACE/GRACE Follow On satellites for Total Water Storage (TWS); satellite altimetry for reservoir storage, MODIS satellites for vegetation indices, and limited ground-based monitoring. Results show that declining trends in TWS (60–73 km3 over the 18 yr GRACE record) were restricted to aquifers in northern Africa, controlled primarily by irrigation water use in the Nubian and NW Saharan aquifers. Rising TWS trends were found in aquifers in western Africa (23–49 km3), attributed to increased recharge from land use change and cropland expansion. Interannual variability dominated TWS variability in eastern and southern Africa, controlled primarily by climate extremes. Climate teleconnections, particularly El Nino Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole, strongly controlled droughts and floods in eastern and southern Africa. Huge aquifer storage in northern Africa suggests that the recent decadal storage declines should not impact the regional aquifers but may affect local conditions. Increasing groundwater levels in western Africa will need to be managed because of locally rising groundwater flooding. More climate resilient water management can be accomplished in eastern and southern Africa by storing water from wet to dry climate cycles. Accessing the natural water storage provided by aquifers in Africa is the obvious way to manage the variability between droughts and floods.

Cloud droplet number concentration (Nd) is of central importance to observation-based estimates of aerosol indirect effects, being used to quantify both the cloud sensitivity to aerosol and the base state of the cloud. However, the derivation of Nd from satellite data depends on a number of assumptions about the cloud and the accuracy of the retrievals of the cloud properties from which it is derived, making it prone to systematic biases. A number of sampling strategies have been proposed to address these biases by selecting the most accurate Nd retrievals in the satellite data. This work compares the impact of these strategies on the accuracy of the satellite retrieved Nd, using a selection of in situ measurements. In stratocumulus regions, the MODIS Nd retrieval is able to achieve a high precision (r2 of 0.5–0.8). This is lower in other cloud regimes but can be increased by appropriate sampling choices. Although the Nd sampling can have significant effects on the Nd climatology, it produces only a 20 % variation in the implied radiative forcing from aerosol–cloud interactions, with the choice of aerosol proxy driving the overall uncertainty. The results are summarised into recommendations for using MODIS Nd products and appropriate sampling.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0233279.].

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Summary Background Tranexamic acid reduces surgical bleeding and reduces death due to bleeding in patients with trauma. Meta-analyses of small trials show that tranexamic acid might decrease deaths from gastrointestinal bleeding. We aimed to assess the effects of tranexamic acid in patients with gastrointestinal bleeding. Methods We did an international, multicentre, randomised, placebo-controlled trial in 164 hospitals in 15 countries. Patients were enrolled if the responsible clinician was uncertain whether to use tranexamic acid, were aged above the minimum age considered an adult in their country (either aged 16 years and older or aged 18 years and older), and had significant (defined as at risk of bleeding to death) upper or lower gastrointestinal bleeding. Patients were randomly assigned by selection of a numbered treatment pack from a box containing eight packs that were identical apart from the pack number. Patients received either a loading dose of 1 g tranexamic acid, which was added to 100 mL infusion bag of 0·9% sodium chloride and infused by slow intravenous injection over 10 min, followed by a maintenance dose of 3 g tranexamic acid added to 1 L of any isotonic intravenous solution and infused at 125 mg/h for 24 h, or placebo (sodium chloride 0·9%). Patients, caregivers, and those assessing outcomes were masked to allocation. The primary outcome was death due to bleeding within 5 days of randomisation; analysis excluded patients who received neither dose of the allocated treatment and those for whom outcome data on death were unavailable. This trial was registered with Current Controlled Trials, ISRCTN11225767, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01658124. Findings Between July 4, 2013, and June 21, 2019, we randomly allocated 12 009 patients to receive tranexamic acid (5994, 49·9%) or matching placebo (6015, 50·1%), of whom 11 952 (99·5%) received the first dose of the allocated treatment. Death due to bleeding within 5 days of randomisation occurred in 222 (4%) of 5956 patients in the tranexamic acid group and in 226 (4%) of 5981 patients in the placebo group (risk ratio [RR] 0·99, 95% CI 0·82–1·18). Arterial thromboembolic events (myocardial infarction or stroke) were similar in the tranexamic acid group and placebo group (42 [0·7%] of 5952 vs 46 [0·8%] of 5977; 0·92; 0·60 to 1·39). Venous thromboembolic events (deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism) were higher in tranexamic acid group than in the placebo group (48 [0·8%] of 5952 vs 26 [0·4%] of 5977; RR 1·85; 95% CI 1·15 to 2·98). Interpretation We found that tranexamic acid did not reduce death from gastrointestinal bleeding. On the basis of our results, tranexamic acid should not be used for the treatment of gastrointestinal bleeding outside the context of a randomised trial. Funding UK National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme.

The first documented Rift Valley hemorrhagic fever outbreak in the Arabian Peninsula occurred in northwestern Yemen and southwestern Saudi Arabia from August 2000 to September 2001. This Rift Valley fever outbreak is unique because the virus was introduced into Arabia during or after the 1997–1998 East African outbreak and before August 2000, either by wind-blown infected mosquitos or by infected animals, both from East Africa. A wet period from August 2000 into 2001 resulted in a large number of amplification vector mosquitoes, these mosquitos fed on infected animals, and the outbreak occurred. More than 1,500 people were diagnosed with the disease, at least 215 died, and widespread losses of domestic animals were reported. Using a combination of satellite data products, including 2 x 2 m digital elevation images derived from commercial satellite data, we show rainfall and potential areas of inundation or water impoundment were favorable for the 2000 outbreak. However, favorable conditions for subsequent outbreaks were present in 2007 and 2013, and very favorable conditions were also present in 2016–2018. The lack of subsequent Rift Valley fever outbreaks in this area suggests that Rift Valley fever has not been established in mosquito species in Southwest Arabia, or that strict animal import inspection and quarantine procedures, medical and veterinary surveillance, and mosquito control efforts put in place in Saudi Arabia following the 2000 outbreak have been successful. Any area with Rift Valley fever amplification vector mosquitos present is a potential outbreak area unless strict animal import inspection and quarantine proceedures are in place.

Synthetic anion transporters that facilitate transmembrane H+/Cl-symport (cotransport)have anti-cancer potential due to their ability to neutralize pH gradients and inhibit autophagy in cells. However, compared to the natural product prodigiosin, synthetic anion transporters have low-to-modest H+/Cl-symportactivity and their mechanism of action remains less well understood. We here report a chloride-selective tetraurea macrocycle that has a record-high H+/Cl-symportactivity similar to prodigiosin and most importantly demonstrates unprecedented voltage-switchable transport properties that is linked to the lack of uniport activity. By studying anion binding affinity and transport mechanisms of four other anion transporters, we show that the lack of uniport and the voltage-dependent H+/Cl-symport originate from strong binding to lipid phosphate headgroup that hampers the diffusion of the free transporters through the membranes, leading to an unusual H+/Cl-symport mechanism that involves only charged species. Our work provides important mechanistic insights into different classes of anion transporters and a new approach to achieve voltage-switchability in artificial membrane transport systems.

While the suspension-feeding sea cucumber Cucumaria frondosa is commercially exploited in the North Atlantic and is considered to have potential for integrated aquaculture, the impact of environmental conditions on its behaviour and population structure remains incompletely understood. The present study showed that adults are not photosensitive; they do not exhibit any preference for either illuminated or shaded areas. Within each photoperiod treatment, analyses of the daily activity cycle revealed that the proportion of individuals with feeding tentacles deployed did not change over time; however, the proportion of moving individuals increased in the dark phase under the 12 h light/12 dark regime, but remained constant under continuous light or darkness. Hence, from an aquaculture perspective, long days (i.e. summer photoperiod) might decrease the time spent moving in favour of feeding, potentially shifting the energy budget toward faster growth. Variations in phytoplankton concentration modulated the deployment of tentacles but did not trigger any displacement toward the food source, indicating that feeding responds directly to the presence of food. Moreover, C. frondosa exhibited a clear preference for substrates composed of bare rocks and rocks with coralline algae and displayed a weak preference for darker substrate backgrounds. Together, these findings highlight how some key environmental factors can govern the feeding, locomotor activities, and eventual distribution of cold-water suspension-feeding sea cucumbers.

Interannual climate variability patterns associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon result in climate and environmental anomaly conditions in specific regions worldwide that directly favor outbreaks and/or amplification of variety of diseases of public health concern including chikungunya, hantavirus, Rift Valley fever, cholera, plague, and Zika. We analyzed patterns of some disease outbreaks during the strong 2015–2016 El Niño event in relation to climate anomalies derived from satellite measurements. Disease outbreaks in multiple El Niño-connected regions worldwide (including Southeast Asia, Tanzania, western US, and Brazil) followed shifts in rainfall, temperature, and vegetation in which both drought and flooding occurred in excess (14–81% precipitation departures from normal). These shifts favored ecological conditions appropriate for pathogens and their vectors to emerge and propagate clusters of diseases activity in these regions. Our analysis indicates that intensity of disease activity in some ENSO-teleconnected regions were approximately 2.5–28% higher during years with El Niño events than those without. Plague in Colorado and New Mexico as well as cholera in Tanzania were significantly associated with above normal rainfall (p

Traditional views of sexual selection view males as the indiscriminate sex, competing for access to choosy females. It is increasingly recognized that mating can also be costly for males and they are therefore likely to exhibit choice in order to maximize their reproductive success. Stalk-eyed flies are model species in sexual selection studies. Males are sperm limited and constrained in the number of matings they are able to partake in. In addition, variation in female fecundity has been shown to correlate positively with female eyespan, so eyespan size could provide males with a reliable signal of female reproductive value. We examined male mate preference in the wild in the stalk-eyed fly, Teleopsis dalmanni. In addition, we set up experiments in the laboratory allowing males a choice between females that varied in 1) eyespan (a proxy for fecundity) and/or 2) fecundity (manipulated through diet). We found that males exhibited preference for large eyespan females, both in the wild and laboratory studies. As well as using female eyespan as a mating cue, males were also able to assess female fecundity directly. Changes in fecundity among large eyespan females caused corresponding changes in male mate preference, whereas changes in the fecundity of small eyespan females had limited effect on their attractiveness. These results show that male mate preferences are a prevalent feature of a canonical example of female mate choice sexual selection and that males use multiple cues when they assess females as potential mates.

Orange-footed Sea Cucumber (Cucumaria frondosa; Echinodermata: Holothuroidea) is a dark-brown species that is broadly distributed in North Atlantic and Arctic waters. Here, we document the rare occurrence of colour morphs showing various degrees of albinism, from totally white to faint orange pigmentation. These unusually coloured individuals were found across a broad distribution range in eastern Canada and northeastern United States, with their occurrence in Newfoundland samples ranging from 0.2% to 0.5%. Two fully albino individuals were noticeably smaller than other colour morphs. The occurrence of rare, unusually coloured sea cucumbers is important from an ecological standpoint and may also have commercial implications.

THE TRANSITION TO FORMAL schooling is a significant milestone for young children and their families. Congruence between an early childhood setting and school experience is known to impact on children's positive start to school. Despite policy efforts at the Victorian state level, preschool educators and Foundation teachers do not have a strong understanding of the curriculum, pedagogical and assessment practices used in the alternate setting. This paper reports on the ‘Alliance Project’ that sought to support preschool educators and Foundation teachers to work cooperatively to better understand each other's practices. Drawing from sociocultural theory, the Alliance Project employed an interventionist methodology to work with preschool educator and Foundation teacher pairings on a joint planning initiative. Participants on the Alliance Project gained increased familiarity with the alternate setting's curriculum, pedagogy and assessment practices, and an increased capacity to work cooperatively across both settings to address the needs of transitioning children.

Since 1972, satellite remote sensing of the environment has been dominated by polar-orbiting sensors providing useful data for monitoring the earth s natural resources. However their observation and monitoring capacity are inhibited by daily to monthly looks for any given ground surface which often is obscured by frequent and persistent cloud cover creating large gaps in time series measurements. The launch of the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite into geostationary orbit has opened new opportunities for land surface monitoring. The Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) instrument on-board MSG with an imaging capability every 15 minutes which is substantially greater than any temporal resolution that can be obtained from existing polar operational environmental satellites (POES) systems currently in use for environmental monitoring. Different areas of the African continent were affected by droughts and floods in 2008 caused by periods of abnormally low and high rainfall, respectively. Based on the effectiveness of monitoring these events from Earth Observation (EO) data the current analyses show that the new generation of geostationary remote sensing data can provide higher temporal resolution cloud-free (less than 5 days) measurements of the environment as compared to existing POES systems. SEVIRI MSG 5-day continental scale composites will enable rapid assessment of environmental conditions and improved early warning of disasters for the African continent such as flooding or droughts. The high temporal resolution geostationary data will complement existing higher spatial resolution polar-orbiting satellite data for various dynamic environmental and natural resource applications of terrestrial ecosystems.

International audience; Historical outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF) since the early 1950s have been associated with cyclical patterns of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, which results in elevated and widespread rainfall over the RVF endemic areas of Africa. Using satellite measurements of global and regional elevated sea surface temperatures, elevated rainfall, and satellite derived-normalized difference vegetation index data, we predicted with lead times of 2-4 months areas where outbreaks of RVF in humans and animals were expected and occurred in the Horn of Africa, Sudan, and Southern Africa at different time periods from September 2006 to March 2008. Predictions were confirmed by entomological field investigations of virus activity and by reported cases of RVF in human and livestock populations. This represents the first series of prospective predictions of RVF outbreaks and provides a baseline for improved early warning, control, response planning, and mitigation into the future.

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections present a hemispheric dipole pattern in both rainfall and vegetation between eastern and southern Africa. We analyze precipitation and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) departures during the 2015–2017 ENSO cycle; with one of the strongest warm events (El Niño) on record followed by a short and weak cold event (La Niña). Typically, southern (eastern) Africa is associated with dry (wet) conditions during El Niño, and wet (dry) conditions during La Niña. In general, the temporal and spatial evolution of vegetation responses show the expected dipole pattern during the 2015–2016 El Niño and following 2016–2017 La Niña. However, in 2015–2016 the eastern African impacts were displaced to the west and south of the canonical pattern. Composites of seasonal vegetation anomalies highlight the magnitude and position of impacts. Further investigation through empirical orthogonal teleconnections and spatial correlation analysis confirms the similar, but opposite, teleconnection impacts in eastern and southern Africa. The diametrically opposed patterns have particular implications for agricultural production and the availability of fodder and forage, especially in the pastoral communities of the two regions.

In recent years there has been a dramatic increase in the demand for timely, comprehensive global agricultural intelligence. Timely information on global crop production is indispensable for combating the growing stress on the world’s crop production and for securing both short-term and long-term stable and reliable supply of food. Global agriculture monitoring systems are critical to providing this kind of intelligence and global earth observations are an essential component of an effective global agricultural monitoring system as they offer timely, objective, global information on croplands distribution, crop development and conditions as the growing season progresses. The Global Agriculture Monitoring Project (GLAM), a joint NASA, USDA, UMD and SDSU initiative, has built a global agricultural monitoring system that provides the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) with timely, easily accessible, scientifically-validated remotely-sensed data and derived products as well as data analysis tools, for crop-condition monitoring and production assessment. This system is an integral component of the USDA’s FAS Decision Support System (DSS) for agriculture. It has significantly improved the FAS crop analysts’ ability to monitor crop conditions, and to quantitatively forecast crop yields through the provision of timely, high-quality global earth observations data in a format customized for FAS alongside a suite of data analysis tools. FAS crop analysts use these satellite data in a ‘convergence of evidence’ approach with meteorological data, field reports, crop models, attaché reports and local reports. The USDA FAS is currently the only operational provider of timely, objective crop production forecasts at the global scale. These forecasts are routinely used by the other US Federal government agencies as well as by commodity trading companies, farmers, relief agencies and foreign governments. This paper discusses the operational components and new developments of the GLAM monitoring system as well as the future role of earth observations in global agricultural monitoring.

The dominant theory for the evolution of male sexual ornaments is that they act as signals of male quality used by females in their mate choice. But these traits may also be used in male–male competition. In stalk-eyed flies, male eyespan (the distance between the eyes) is already known to play an important role in female mate choice. We investigated the influence of eyespan on male aggression over control of lek mating sites, both under controlled conditions and from field observations. Eyespan positively affected the number of aggressive encounters between two males on a lek. There were more aggressive interactions between large-eyespan males compared with small-eyespan males, and large-eyespan males won proportionately more aggressive interactions. Lek site ownership also influenced the outcome of aggression but to a smaller degree than eyespan. In addition, higher resource value, the number of females on a lek, increased the chance of aggression. The outcome of aggression between males is the control of lek aggregation sites, and this had direct consequences for male reproductive success, as lek owners gained more matings at both dusk and dawn. The importance of male–male competition in shaping sexual selection in stalk-eyed flies is discussed.

Handicap models of sexual selection propose that females use male sexual ornaments as a cue in mate choice because they reflect commodities that increase female fitness, either directly or indirectly. In contrast to studies on vertebrates, most investigations of ornaments in insects and other invertebrate taxa have been conducted under laboratory conditions. There is a pressing need to address questions relating to sexual signalling of quality in natural populations, as the arbitrary and uniform environments found in the laboratory fail to reflect the world under which animals have evolved. We investigated associations between male ornaments (exaggerated eyespan), attractiveness, and reproductive quality in a wild population of the sexually ornamented stalk-eyed fly, Teleopsis dalmanni. We also explored the relationship between eyespan and reproductive quality in females to evaluate the potential for sexually antagonistic selection on eyespan. We show that eyespan is a generic correlate of reproductive quality, acting as a reliable mirror of variation in reproductive fitness in both sexes. Our findings suggest that male ornaments signal commodities that are of interest to females in the natural environment in which they, and mate preferences for them, have evolved. In addition, the covariance between female eyespan and reproductive output suggests that the former may be a reliable cue of quality in its own right. Our data provide important insights into the evolutionary forces that shape the evolution of exaggerated eyespan in wild populations of this species.

El Niño/Southern Oscillation related climate anomalies were analyzed by using a combination of satellite measurements of elevated sea-surface temperatures and subsequent elevated rainfall and satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index data. A Rift Valley fever (RVF) risk mapping model using these climate data predicted areas where outbreaks of RVF in humans and animals were expected and occurred in the Horn of Africa from December 2006 to May 2007. The predictions were subsequently confirmed by entomological and epidemiological field investigations of virus activity in the areas identified as at risk. Accurate spatial and temporal predictions of disease activity, as it occurred first in southern Somalia and then through much of Kenya before affecting northern Tanzania, provided a 2 to 6 week period of warning for the Horn of Africa that facilitated disease outbreak response and mitigation activities. To our knowledge, this is the first prospective prediction of a RVF outbreak.

Land surface data from MODIS and AVHRR have been extensively used for vegetation monitoring. In cloud-prone areas like West Africa the use of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data for vegetation monitoring is hampered by persistent cloud cover especially during the rainy season. The new geostationary satellite Meteosat Second Generation (SEVIRI MSG) is the first geostationary satellite suited for vegetation monitoring allowing NDVI to be derived with a 15-minute temporal resolution. For West Africa, MODIS (combined TERRA and AQUA) produce above 85 percent cloud-free pixels in the scene during the entire rainy season using 16-day composite periods. SEVIRI MSG data produces � 98 percent cloud-free pixels during the entire season using a 3-day composite period. Therefore, there is a much higher probability for producing high quality cloud free data using SEVIRI MSG data for a short time composite period compared to Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellite (POES) data, which is expected to substantially improve various applications of satellite based natural resource management, including vegetation monitoring, in West Africa.

Background The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global climate phenomenon that impacts human infectious disease risk worldwide through droughts, floods, and other climate extremes. Throughout summer and fall 2014 and winter 2015, El Nino Watch, issued by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, assessed likely El Nino development during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter, persisting into spring 2015. Methods We identified geographic regions where environmental conditions may increase infectious disease transmission if the predicted El Nino occurs using El Nino indicators (Sea Surface Temperature [SST], Outgoing Longwave Radiation [OLR], and rainfall anomalies) and literature review of El Nino-infectious disease associations. Results SSTs in the equatorial Pacific and western Indian Oceans were anomalously elevated during August-October 2014, consistent with a developing weak El Nino event. Teleconnections with local climate is evident in global precipitation patterns, with positive OLR anomalies (drier than average conditions) across Indonesia and coastal southeast Asia, and negative anomalies across northern China, the western Indian Ocean, central Asia, north-central and northeast Africa, Mexico/Central America, the southwestern United States, and the northeastern and southwestern tropical Pacific. Persistence of these conditions could produce environmental settings conducive to increased transmission of cholera, dengue, malaria, Rift Valley fever, and other infectious diseases in regional hotspots as during previous El Nino events. Discussion and conclusions The current development of weak El Nino conditions may have significant potential implications for global public health in winter 2014-spring 2015. Enhanced surveillance and other preparedness measures in predicted infectious disease hotspots could mitigate health impacts.

The effects of variations in Barbour-Stoenner-Kelly (BSK) medium on the infectivity and pathogenicity of Borrelia burgdorferi clinical isolates were assessed by retrospective and prospective studies using a murine model of Lyme borreliosis. Thirty of 35 (86%) mice infected with any of six virulent B. burgdorferi clinical isolates grown in a BSK-H medium developed clinically apparent arthritis. By contrast, arthritis was observed in only 25 of 60 (42%) mice inoculated with two of these B. burgdorferi strains grown in a different lot of BSK-H medium ( P < 0.001). In a prospective study, mice inoculated with a B. burgdorferi clinical isolate grown in a BSK medium prepared in-house produced significantly greater disease than those injected with the same isolate cultured in BSK-H medium ( P < 0.05). The attenuated pathogenicity is not due to the loss of plasmids during in vitro cultivation. The data suggest that variations in BSK medium have a significant impact on the infectivity and pathogenicity of B. burgdorferi clinical isolates.

The interest in national terrestrial ecosystem carbon budgets has been increasing because the Kyoto Protocol has included some terrestrial carbon sinks in a legally binding framework for controlling greenhouse gases emissions. Accurate quantification of the terrestrial carbon sink must account the interannual variations associated with climate variability and change. This study used a process-based biogeochemical model and a remote sensing-based production efficiency model to estimate the variations in net primary production (NPP), soil heterotrophic respiration (HR), and net ecosystem production (NEP) caused by climate variability and atmospheric CO2 increases in China during the period 1981-2000. The results show that China's terrestrial NPP varied between 2.86 and 3.37 Gt C yr(-1) with a growth rate of 0.32% year(-1) and HR varied between 2.89 and 3.21 Gt C yr(-1) with a growth rate of 0.40% year(-1) in the period 1981-1998. Whereas the increases in HR were related mainly to warming, the increases in NPP were attributed to increases in precipitation and atmospheric CO2 . Net ecosystem production (NEP) varied between -0.32 and 0.25 Gt C yr(-1) with a mean value of 0.07 Gt C yr(-1), leading to carbon accumulation of 0.79 Gt in vegetation and 0.43 Gt in soils during the period. To the interannual variations in NEP changes in NPP contributed more than HR in arid northern China but less in moist southern China. NEP had no a statistically significant trend, but the mean annual NEP for the 1990s was lower than for the 1980s as the increases in NEP in southern China were offset by the decreases in northern China. These estimates indicate that China's terrestrial ecosystems were taking up carbon but the capacity was undermined by the ongoing climate change. The estimated NEP related to climate variation and atmospheric CO2 increases may account for from 40 to 80% to the total terrestrial carbon sink in China.

This paper examines, on global and continental spatial scales, the relationship between surface meteorological observations retrieved from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and the TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS). Comparisons of spatial and temporal patterns of surface temperature, air temperature, and vapor pressure deficit were carried out using data acquired between January 1989 and December 1990 on a monthly time step. These variables play an important role in hydrological, ecological, and land surface–atmosphere interactions. Additional comparisons were done for seven large regions (ca. 106 km2) centered on the continental land surface areas in order to test for regional differences and to reduce the effect of coastal transition zones on spatial resampling. The mean statistical differences between the TOVS and AVHRR estimates were 5 °C for surface temperature, 4 °C for air temperature, and 1.5 kPa for vapor pressure deficit. In addition to long-term and spatially extensive ground data sets, these comparisons provide independent validation of different estimation methods using various satellite sensor measurements resampled to comparable spatial scales. Favorable comparison of the two sensors considered here provide greater confidence in the use of these data sets for global monitoring and modeling applications.

The NOAA series of meteorological satellites that carry the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) suffer from orbital drift so that during each satellite's duty period the overpass time occurs later in the day. Replacement satellites restore the overpass time temporarily, but then it gradually decays. The goals of this paper are to document the effects of variable observation time owing to orbital drift on brightness temperatures (BT) and land surface temperature (LST) calculated from them in the NOAA/NASA Pathfinder AVHRR Land (PAL) data set and to consider possible corrections for the resulting trends and discontinuities in the PAL BT data. The drift effects were found to be greater for bare ground than for vegetated land cover classes, however, significant effects were found for most vegetated classes. The magnitude of the orbital drift effect for most global cover types was at least as large as the other errors that affect LST measurement. A simple empirical correction for observation time based on solar zenith angle (SZA) was used to correct the PAL BT time series following Gutman [Int. J. Remote Sens. 20 (1999a) 3407]. The correction from this method was compared with that predicted by a physically based model and was found to differ in the early part of each satellite's duty cycle. Finally, the impacts of correction on the effective observation time are analyzed and the simple statistical correction was found to suffer from greater variability than has hitherto been recognized. A modification to the statistical correction to adjust the effective observation time is described.

Plasmodium vivax malaria reemerged in the Republic of Korea in 1993 after it had been declared malaria free in 1979. Malaria rapidly increased and peaked in 2000 with 4,142 cases with lower but variable numbers of cases reported through 2011. We examined the association of regional climate trends over the Korean Peninsula relative to malaria cases in U.S. military and Republic of Korea soldiers, veterans, and civilians from 1950 to 2011. Temperatures and anomaly trends in air temperature associated with satellite remotely sensed outgoing long-wave radiation were used to observe temporal changes. These changes, particularly increasing air temperatures, in combination with moderate rains throughout the malaria season, and distribution of malaria vectors, likely supported the 1993 reemergence and peaks in malaria incidence that occurred through 2011 by accelerating the rate of parasite development in mosquitoes and increased numbers as a result of an expansion of larval habitat, thereby increasing the vectorial capacity of Anopheles vectors. High malaria rates associated with a favorable climate were similarly observed during the Korean War. These findings support the need for increased investigations into malaria predictive models using climate-related variables.

We update the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) analysis of Sahelian vegetation dynamics and trends using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI; version 3g) 1981 to 2012 data set. We compare the annual NDIV3g and July to October growing season averages with the three rainfall data sets: the Africa Rainfall Climatology from 1983 to 2012, the Variability Analyses of Surface Climate Observations Version-1.1 from 1951 to 2000, and the Nicholson ground-station precipitation rainfall data from 1981 to 1994. We use the Nicholson ground-station annual precipitation data to determine the reliability of the two continental precipitation data sets for specific locations and specific times, extrapolate these confirmed relationships over the Sahelian Zone from 1983 to 2012 with the Africa Rainfall Climatology, and then place these zonal findings within the 1951 to 2000 record of the Variability Analyses of Surface Climate Observations Version-1.1 precipitation data set. We confirm the extreme nature of the 1984–1985 Sahelian drought, a signature event that marked the minima during the 1980s desiccation period followed within ten years by near-maxima rainfall event in 1994 and positive departures is NDVI, marking beginning of predominantly wetter conditions that have persisted to 2012. We also show the NDVI3g data capture “effective” rainfall, the rainfall that is utilized by plants to grow, as compared to rainfall that evaporates or is runoff. Using our effective rainfall concept, we estimate average effective rainfall for the entire Sahelian Zone for the 1984 extreme drought was 223 mm/yr as compared to 406 mm/yr in during the 1994 wet period. We conclude that NDVI3g data can used as a proxy for analyzing and interpreting decadal-scale land surface variability and trends over semi arid-lands.

We document significant worldwide weather anomalies that affected agriculture and vector-borne disease outbreaks during the 2010-2012 period. We utilized 2000-2012 vegetation index and land surface temperature data from NASA's satellite-based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to map the magnitude and extent of these anomalies for diverse regions including the continental United States, Russia, East Africa, Southern Africa, and Australia. We demonstrate that shifts in temperature and/or precipitation have significant impacts on vegetation patterns with attendant consequences for agriculture and public health. Weather extremes resulted in excessive rainfall and flooding as well as severe drought, which caused ∼10 to 80% variation in major agricultural commodity production (including wheat, corn, cotton, sorghum) and created exceptional conditions for extensive mosquito-borne disease outbreaks of dengue, Rift Valley fever, Murray Valley encephalitis, and West Nile virus disease. Analysis of MODIS data provided a standardized method for quantifying the extreme weather anomalies observed during this period. Assessments of land surface conditions from satellite-based systems such as MODIS can be a valuable tool in national, regional, and global weather impact determinations.

Interannual variation in terrestrial net primary production (NPP) was modeled using the global production efficiency model (GLO-PEM), a semimechanistic plant photosynthesis and respiration model driven entirely with satellite advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) observations. The model also estimated a wide range of biophysical variables at 10-day intervals for the period 1982–1989, including air temperature, vapor pressure deficit, soil moisture, biomass, autotrophic respiration, canopy-absorbed photosynthetically active radiation, gross primary production, and light use efficiency. The accuracy of the simulated variables has previously been shown to be within 10–30% of field measurements, depending on the specific variable. We analyze here interannual changes in NPP, which showed large spatial variability (0–1500 gC m−2 yr−1) and trends that differed regionally over the 8-year period. Annually integrated global NPP was found to vary as much as 12% between years and was very sensitive to air temperature. The coefficient of variation in NPP of sparsely vegetated areas (mostly semiarid) on an interannual basis was as much as 80%, whereas densely vegetated areas (broadleaf evergreen and seasonally deciduous forests) varied comparatively little (0–10%). Mean annual NPP of the latter decreased 36 gC m−2 yr−1 over the time series examined. There was extreme seasonal and moderate interannual variation (10–60%) in NPP of middle- to high-latitude regions (temperate and boreal forests) with evidence for a slight trend toward increased values through time (+3 to 12 gC m−2 yr−1). The results indicate significant interannual and regional differences in responses to climate variability, with boreal regions increasing 39 gC m−2 yr−1 compared to a decrease of 116 gC m−2 yr−1 in tropical regions for each 1°C rise in air temperature. We explore a few of the possible reasons for these observations and discuss some of the issues and limitations to the use of the current global AVHRR observational record.

Maps of net and gross primary production, autotrophic respiration, biomass, and other biophysical variables were generated for 106 km2 of boreal forest in central Canada (the Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere (BOREAS) region) using a production efficiency model (PEM) driven with remotely sensed observations at 1 km2 spatial resolution. The PEM was based on carbon yields of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation for both gross and net primary production (GPP and NPP), accounting for environmental stress and autotrophic respiration (Ra). Physiological control was modeled using remotely sensed maps of air temperature, vapor pressure deficit, and soil moisture. The accuracy of the inferred variables was generally within 10–30% of point measurements at the surface and independent model results (both at the stand level). Biomass maps were derived from visible reflectance measurements and were also compared to independently derived maps. Area-averaged GPP was 604 g C m−2 yr−1 compared with average canopy respiration of 428 g C m−2 yr−1 and NPP of 235 g C m−2 yr−1. Net annual carbon uptake in net primary production for the region totaled 175 teragrams. Canopy carbon exchange (GPP and Ra) differed widely between land cover types even though the model does not use land cover information. Extensive areas of the least productive cover types (e.g., lowland needleleaf species) accounted for the greatest amount of NPP.

Application and validation of a modified production efficiency model (PEM) appropriate for the regional and global scales is presented. The model calculates not just the conversion efficiency of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (APAR) but also the component carbon fluxes that ultimately determine net and gross primary production. This approach, driven with remotely sensed observations, moves beyond simple correlative or associative models to a more mechanistic basis and avoids the need for a full suite of ecophysiological process algorithms that require explicit (e.g. species-specific) parameterization. We show that surface variables recovered from the satellite observations, including net primary production, are in good agreement with field measurements and independent model simulations in a number of ecosystems. These results illustrate the utility of PEMs for terrestrial primary production modeling over large areas and suggest that some complex ecophysiological models may be functionally simpler than their structure suggests.

Epidemics of chikungunya fever, an Aedes spp.-borne viral disease, affected hundreds of thousands of people in western Indian Ocean islands and India during 2005-2006. The initial outbreaks occurred in coastal Kenya (Lamu, then Mombasa) in 2004. We investigated eco-climatic conditions associated with chikungunya fever emergence along coastal Kenya using epidemiologic investigations and satellite data. Unusually dry, warm conditions preceded the outbreaks, including the driest since 1998 for some of the coastal regions. Infrequent replenishment of domestic water stores and elevated temperatures may have facilitated Chikungunya virus transmission. These results suggest that drought-affected populations may be at heightened risk for chikungunya fever, and underscore the need for safe water storage during drought relief operations.

To the Editor: Rift Valley fever (RVF) virus causes severe disease, abortion, and death in domestic animals (especially young sheep, cattle, and goats) in Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. Humans are infected by mosquitoes, which maintain epizootic transmission, or through exposure to infected animal tissue. Although human disease may be mild, sometimes severe retinitis, meningoencephalitis, or hemorrhagic fever syndromes may develop in patients. In Africa, epizootics and associated human epidemics usually follow heavy rainfall (1). RVF was first confirmed outside Africa in September 2000. The outbreak in southwestern coastal Saudi Arabia and neighboring coastal areas of Yemen resulted in an epizootic with >120 human deaths and major losses in livestock populations from disease and slaughter (2,3). RVF virus isolated from the floodwater mosquito Aedes vexans arabiensis during the outbreak was closely related to strains from Madagascar (1991) and Kenya (1997), which suggests that the virus was imported through infected mosquitoes or livestock from East Africa (3). The Arabian outbreak followed increased rainfall in nearby highlands that flooded the coastal areas and created ideal environments for mosquito populations similar to those found in RVF-endemic regions of East Africa (4). Most RVF activity was associated with flooded wadi agricultural systems; no cases were reported in the mountains or in dry sandy regions, where surface water does not accumulate long enough to sustain mosquito breeding. To provide early warning of conditions favorable for RVF epidemics, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Department of Defense Global Emerging Infections Surveillance and Response System (DoD-GEIS) monitor the satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), which reflects recent rainfall and other ecologic and climatic factors (5–7). NDVI anomalies in the highlands east of affected areas during the 2000 outbreak (Figure A1 panel A) showed a spatial pattern (although of lower magnitude) similar to recent anomalies in those areas (Figure A1 panel B). Greater than normal NDVIs (20%–60%) were seen in the Sarawat Mountains, from just northeast of Djeddah, Saudi Arabia, and southwestward beyond Jizan and into Hodeidah governorate in Yemen during May and June 2005. Figure A1 Figure A1. Systeme Probatoire pour l'Observation de la Terre vegetation sensor 1 km normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) anomaly images of the Arabian Peninsula region during June 2000 (A) and June 2005 (B). Data are the percentage deviation ... Satellite-derived rainfall estimates show that widespread rainfall occurred over most of western Saudi Arabia and Yemen from mid-April to mid-June 2005 (8) and accounts for the high magnitude and spatial pattern of observed NDVI anomalies in May and June 2005. Rainfall was concentrated in the mountainous regions east of the Red Sea coast, and was heaviest in the areas east of Djeddah and Jizan, with rainfall totals as high as 120 mm and 60–80 mm, respectively, during April 2005, compared with the same period in 2000 (10–50 mm) (Figure A1 panels C and D) and in southwestern Yemen, with totals as high as 120 mm during May. In the area east of Djeddah, total rainfall in April 2005 was 150 mm above the long-term average for that month. Flooding was reported in Hodeidah Governorate, Yemen during May (9) and could be expected in other Red Sea coastal areas following such heavy rainfall. This created habitats appropriate for breeding of mosquitoes capable of transmitting RVF, as occurred in 2000. No human cases of RVF have been reported in Saudi Arabia and Yemen since the 2000 outbreak, but in September 2004 the Saudi Ministry of Agriculture reported that 5 RVF-seropositive sheep had been identified during routine surveillance in Jizan where most infected persons were exposed during the outbreak in 2000 (2). The primary infection was estimated to have occurred in April 2004 (10). The NDVIs and rainfall patterns alerted the Yemen and Saudi Arabia Ministries of Health and Ministries of Agriculture to conduct field investigations with the Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Health Organization. Since RVF virus can be maintained in mosquito eggs for extended periods and transmitted under favorable conditions (6), the high magnitude of NDVI and rainfall patterns reported should prompt heightened veterinary and human surveillance for RVF in coastal Arabia and mass vaccination of susceptible animals. The current RVF model (7) is indicative of conditions that would promote vector breeding and could result in an outbreak of mosquitoborne diseases.

The phenotype‐linked fertility hypothesis proposes that male fertility is advertised via phenotypic signals, explaining female preference for highly sexually ornamented males. An alternative view is that highly attractive males constrain their ejaculate allocation per mating so as to participate in a greater number of matings. Males are also expected to bias their ejaculate allocation to the most fecund females. We test these hypotheses in the African stalk‐eyed fly, Diasemopsis meigenii. We ask how male ejaculate allocation strategy is influenced by male eyespan and female size. Despite large eyespan males having larger internal reproductive organs, we found no association between male eyespan and spermatophore size or sperm number, lending no support to the phenotype‐linked fertility hypothesis. However, males mated for longer and transferred more sperm to large females. As female size was positively correlated with fecundity, this suggests that males gain a selective advantage by investing more in large females. Given these findings, we consider how female mate preference for large male eyespan can be adaptive despite the lack of obvious direct benefits., Ecology and Evolution, 3 (6), ISSN:2045-7758

We describe a model of forest flammability, based on daily satellite observations, for national to regional applications. The model defines forest flammability as the percent moisture content of fuel, in the form of litter of varying sizes on the forest floor. The model uses formulas from the US Forest Service that describe moisture exchange between fuel and the surrounding air and precipitation. The model is driven by estimates of temperature, humidity, and precipitation from the moderate resolution imaging spectrometer and tropical rainfall measuring mission multi-satellite precipitation analysis. We provide model results for the southern Amazon and northern Chaco regions. We evaluate the model in a tropical forest-to-woodland gradient in lowland Bolivia. Results from the model are significantly correlated with those from the same model driven by field climate measurements. This model can be run in a near real-time mode, can be applied to other regions, and can be a cost-effective input to national fire management programs.

The authors developed a monitoring and risk mapping system using normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) times series data derived from the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) instrument on polar orbiting national oceanographic and atmospheric administration (NOAA) satellites to map areas with a potential for a Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks in sub-Saharan Africa. This system is potentially an important tool for local, national and international organisations involved in the prevention and control of animal and human disease, permitting focused and timely implementation of disease control strategies several months before an outbreak. We are currently developing a geographic information system (GIS)-based remotely sensed early warning system for potential RVF vectors in the United States. Forecasts of the potential emergence of mosquito vectors will be disseminated throughout the United States, providing several months' warning in advance of potentially elevated mosquito populations. This would allow timely, targeted implementation of mosquito control, animal quarantine and vaccine strategies to reduce or prevent animal and human disease.

Global climate variability patterns, such as those associated with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena, have been shown to have an impact on vector-borne infectious disease outbreaks. Evidence of the links between ENSO driven climate anomalies and infectious diseases, particularly those transmitted by insects, can allow us to provide improved long range forecasts of an epidemic or epizootic. Using satellite generated data developing climate anomalies suggested potential disease risks for 2006 and 2007. Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial east Pacific Ocean anomalously increased significantly during July–October 2006 indicating the typical development of El Nino conditions. The persistence of these conditions led to extremes in global-scale climate anomalies comparable to what has been observed during similar conditions in the past. The 2006 development of El Nino conditions had significant implications for global public health. Extremes in climate events with above normal rainfall and flooding in some regions and extended drought periods in other regions occurred. Forecasting disease is critical for timely and effective planning of operational control programs. Here we describe global climate anomalies that led to forecasts of elevated disease risks that gave decision makers additional tools to make rational judgments concerning implementation of disease prevention and mitigation strategies.

Despite established links between climate and infectious disease activity, few biosurveillance systems use climatic data to forecast epidemics. The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects weather worldwide and in East Africa is associated with flooding and Rift Valley fever, a mosquito-borne viral disease of economically important livestock and humans. Following a regional ENSO-associated outbreak in 1997-1998, several agencies created a system to forecast RVF using satellite-based monitoring of ENSO and other climatic phenomena. The system generated 5 alerts since 2005. Following 3, in South Africa (2008), Sudan (2007), and East Africa (2006), RVF occurred in high-risk areas (no other RVF outbreaks were reported in monitored areas). Alerts for the Arabian Peninsula (2005) and Sudan (2005) were not followed by RVF reports, though the latter preceded a large Yellow Fever epidemic. Future directions for the system include decision analysis to guide public health interventions and extension to other climate-associated risks.

Background El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related climate anomalies have been shown to have an impact on infectious disease outbreaks. The Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/CPC) has recently issued an unscheduled El Niño advisory, indicating that warmer than normal sea surface temperatures across the equatorial eastern Pacific may have pronounced impacts on global tropical precipitation patterns extending into the northern hemisphere particularly over North America. Building evidence of the links between ENSO driven climate anomalies and infectious diseases, particularly those transmitted by insects, can allow us to provide improved long range forecasts of an epidemic or epizootic. We describe developing climate anomalies that suggest potential disease risks using satellite generated data. Results Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial east Pacific ocean have anomalously increased significantly during July – October 2006 indicating the typical development of El Niño conditions. The persistence of these conditions will lead to extremes in global-scale climate anomalies as has been observed during similar conditions in the past. Positive Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) anomalies, indicative of severe drought conditions, have been observed across all of Indonesia, Malaysia and most of the Philippines, which are usually the first areas to experience ENSO-related impacts. This dryness can be expected to continue, on average, for the remainder of 2006 continuing into the early part of 2007. During the period November 2006 – January 2007 climate forecasts indicate that there is a high probability for above normal rainfall in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Islands, the Korean Peninsula, the U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida, northern South America and equatorial east Africa. Taking into consideration current observations and climate forecast information, indications are that the following regions are at increased risk for disease outbreaks: Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and most of the southeast Asia Islands for increased dengue fever transmission and increased respiratory illness; Coastal Peru, Ecuador, Venezuela, and Colombia for increased risk of malaria; Bangladesh and coastal India for elevated risk of cholera; East Africa for increased risk of a Rift Valley fever outbreak and elevated malaria; southwest USA for increased risk for hantavirus pulmonary syndrome and plague; southern California for increased West Nile virus transmission; and northeast Brazil for increased dengue fever and respiratory illness. Conclusion The current development of El Niño conditions has significant implications for global public health. Extremes in climate events with above normal rainfall and flooding in some regions and extended drought periods in other regions will occur. Forecasting disease is critical for timely and efficient planning of operational control programs. In this paper we describe developing global climate anomalies that suggest potential disease risks that will give decision makers additional tools to make rational judgments concerning implementation of disease prevention and mitigation strategies.

There is currently much interest in mate preferences for sexual ornaments. However, few studies have focused on individual variation in mate preference despite its importance for the rate and direction of sexual selection. Females of the sexually dimorphic stalk-eyed fly, Diasemopsis meigenii , exhibit an unambiguous rejection response towards unattractive males bearing small ornaments. We investigated individual mate preferences using repeated sequential sampling of female rejection or acceptance responses to a wide range of male ornament phenotypes. We found significant variation in the strength of individual preference. In addition, preference was positively associated with female eyespan, a condition-dependent trait putatively linked to visual acuity.

Spatial and temporal variations in net primary production (NPP) are of great importance to ecological studies, natural resource management, and terrestrial carbon sink estimates. However, most of the existing estimates of interannual variation in NPP at regional and global scales were made at coarse resolutions with climate-driven process models. In this study, we quantified global NPP variation at an 8 km and 10-day resolution from 1981 to 2000 based on satellite observations. The high resolution was achieved using the GLObal Production Efficiency Model (GLO-PEM), which was driven with variables derived almost entirely from satellite remote sensing. The results show that there was an increasing trend toward enhanced terrestrial NPP that was superimposed on high seasonal and interannual variations associated with climate variability and that the increase was occurring in both northern and tropical latitudes. NPP generally decreased in El Nino season and increased in La Nina seasons, but the magnitude and spatial pattern of the response varied widely between individual events. Our estimates also indicate that the increases in NPP during the period were caused mainly by increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide and precipitation. The enhancement of NPP by warming was limited to northern high latitudes (above 50°N); in other regions, the interannual variations in NPP were correlated negatively with temperature and positively with precipitation.