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Aims Risk factors for asymptomatic echocardiographic abnormalities that predict symptomatic heart failure (HF) may provide insight into early mechanisms of HF pathogenesis. We examined risk factors associated with asymptomatic echocardiographic structural, systolic, and diastolic abnormalities, separately and in combination, and interactions between risk factors, in the prospective community‐based SCReening Evaluation of the Evolution of New HF (SCREEN‐HF) Study cohort of 3190 participants at increased risk of cardiovascular disease. Methods and results Inclusion criteria were age ≥ 60 years with one or more of hypertension, diabetes, ischaemic heart disease, valvular heart disease, abnormal heart rhythm, cerebrovascular disease, or renal impairment. Exclusion criteria were known HF, ejection fraction mild valve abnormality. Structural, systolic, and diastolic echocardiographic abnormalities were defined according to the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study criteria, and risk factors for asymptomatic structural, systolic, and diastolic abnormalities were identified using logistic regression analysis. In multivariable analysis, increased body mass index (BMI), non‐steroidal anti‐inflammatory drug therapy, and alcohol intake were risk factors for isolated structural abnormality, whereas male gender, increased heart rate, atrial fibrillation (AF), angiotensin‐converting enzyme inhibitor therapy, and obstructive sleep apnoea were associated with a lower risk. Moreover, male gender, smoking, increased systolic blood pressure, and physical inactivity were risk factors for isolated systolic abnormality, whereas increased pulse pressure and antihypertensive therapy were associated with a lower risk. Furthermore, increased age, blood pressure, amino‐terminal pro‐B‐type natriuretic peptide level, and warfarin therapy (associated with AF) were risk factors for isolated diastolic abnormality, whereas increased heart rate and triglyceride level (associated with BMI) were associated with a lower risk. The association of increased heart rate with lower risk of structural and diastolic abnormalities was independent of β‐blocker therapy. Interactions between risk factors differed for structural, systolic, and diastolic abnormalities. Conclusions The different risk factors for asymptomatic structural, systolic, and diastolic abnormalities that predict symptomatic HF, and the interactions between risk factors, illustrate how these structural, systolic, and diastolic abnormalities represent unique trajectories that lead to symptomatic HF. Improved understanding of these trajectories may assist in the design of HF prevention strategies.

Aim Heart failure (HF) incidence increases markedly with age. We examined age‐associated longitudinal change in cardiac structure and function, and their prediction by age and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors, in a community‐based cohort aged ≥60 years at increased CVD risk but without HF. Methods and results CVD risk factors were recorded in 3065 participants who underwent a baseline echocardiographic examination, of whom 2358 attended a follow‐up examination 3.8 [median, inter‐quartile range (IQR) 3.5, 4.2] years later. Median age was 71 (IQR 67, 76) years and 55% of participants were male. Age was associated with longitudinal increase in left ventricular (LV) mass index (LVMI); decrease in LV volumes; increase in LV ejection fraction; decrease in mitral annular systolic velocity; decrease in diastolic function (decreased mitral early diastolic annular velocity (e′); and increase in left atrial volume index, mitral peak early diastolic flow velocity (E)/e′ ratio, and tricuspid regurgitant velocity (TRVmax) in men and women, except for TRVmax in men). In multivariable analysis, longitudinal increase in LVMI was explained by CVD risk factors alone, whereas age, together with CVD risk factors, independently predicted longitudinal change in all other echocardiographic parameters. CVD risk factors were differentially associated with longitudinal change in different echocardiographic parameters. Conclusions Whereas the increase in LVMI with age was explained by CVD risk factors alone, age, together with risk factors, independently predicted longitudinal change in all other echocardiographic parameters, providing evidence for age‐specific mechanisms of change in cardiac structure and function as people age. Age‐associated change in LVMI, LV volumes, and diastolic function resembled what might be expected for the evolution of HF with preserved ejection fraction. Given the differential association of different CVD risk factors with longitudinal change in different echocardiographic parameters, therapies aimed at attenuation of age‐associated change in cardiac structure and function, and HF evolution, will likely need to address multiple CVD risk factors.

Aims We investigated whether addition of diastolic dysfunction (DD) and longitudinal strain (LS) to Stage B heart failure (SBHF) criteria (structural or systolic abnormality) improves prediction of symptomatic HF in participants of the SCReening Evaluation of the Evolution of New Heart Failure study, a self‐selected population at increased cardiovascular disease risk recruited from members of a health insurance fund in Melbourne and Shepparton, Australia. Both American Society of Echocardiography and European Association of Cardiovascular Imaging (ASE/EACVI) criteria and age‐specific Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study criteria, for SBHF and DD, and ARIC criteria for abnormal LS, were examined. Methods and results Inclusion criteria were age ≥60 years with one or more of self‐reported ischaemic or other heart disease, irregular or rapid heart rhythm, cerebrovascular disease, renal impairment, or treatment for hypertension or diabetes for ≥2 years. Exclusion criteria were known HF, or ejection fraction mild valve abnormality detected on previous echocardiography or other imaging. Echocardiography was performed in 3190 participants who were followed for a median of 3.9 (interquartile range: 3.4, 4.5) years after echocardiography. Symptomatic HF was diagnosed in 139 participants at a median of 3.1 (interquartile range: 2.1, 3.9) years after echocardiography. ARIC structural, systolic, and diastolic abnormalities predicted HF in univariate and multivariable proportional hazards analyses, whereas ASE/EACVI structural and systolic, but not diastolic, abnormalities predicted HF. ARIC and ASE/EACVI SBHF criteria predicted HF with sensitivities of 81% and 55%, specificities of 39% and 76%, and C statistics of 0.60 (95% confidence interval: 0.57, 0.64) and 0.66 (0.61, 0.71), respectively. Adding ARIC DD to SBHF increased sensitivity to 94% with specificity of 24% and C statistic of 0.59 (0.57, 0.61), whereas addition of ASE/EACVI DD to SBHF increased sensitivity to 97% but reduced specificity to 9% and the C statistic to 0.52 (0.50, 0.54, P

Background Given the age-related decline in glomerular filtration rate (GFR) in healthy individuals, we examined the association of all-cause death or cardiovascular event with the Kidney age - Chronological age Difference (KCD) score, whereby an individual’s kidney age is estimated from their estimated GFR (eGFR) and the age-dependent eGFR decline reported for healthy living potential kidney donors. Methods We examined the association between death or cardiovascular event and KCD score, age-dependent stepped eGFR criteria (eGFRstep), and eGFR 2 (eGFR60) in a community-based high cardiovascular risk cohort of 3837 individuals aged ≥60 (median 70, interquartile range 65, 75) years, followed for a median of 5.6 years. Results In proportional hazards analysis, KCD score ≥ 20 years (KCD20) was associated with increased risk of death or cardiovascular event in unadjusted analysis and after adjustment for age, sex and cardiovascular risk factors. Addition of KCD20, eGFRstep or eGFR60 to a cardiovascular risk factor model did not improve area under the curve for identification of individuals who experienced death or cardiovascular event in receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. However, addition of KCD20 or eGFR60, but not eGFRstep, to a cardiovascular risk factor model improved net reclassification and integrated discrimination. KCD20 identified individuals who experienced death or cardiovascular event with greater sensitivity than eGFRstep for all participants, and with greater sensitivity than eGFR60 for participants aged 60–69 years, with similar sensitivities for men and women. Conclusions In this high cardiovascular risk cohort aged ≥60 years, the KCD score provided an age-adapted measure of kidney function that may assist patient education, and KCD20 provided an age-adapted criterion of eGFR-related increased risk of death or cardiovascular event. Further studies that include the full age spectrum are required to examine the optimal KCD score cut point that identifies increased risk of death or cardiovascular event, and kidney events, associated with impaired kidney function, and whether the optimal KCD score cut point is similar for men and women. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00400257, NCT00604006, and NCT01581827.

BACKGROUND: Effective management of cardiovascular and chronic kidney disease risk factors offers longer, healthier lives and savings in healthcare. AIM: To examine risk factor management in participants of the SCReening Evaluation of the Evolution of New Heart Failure study, a self-selected population at increased cardiovascular disease risk recruited from members of a health insurance fund in Melbourne and Shepparton, Australia. METHODS: Inclusion criteria were age ≥ 60 years with one or more self-reported ischaemic or other heart diseases, irregular or rapid heart rhythm, cerebrovascular disease, renal impairment or treatment for hypertension or diabetes for ≥2 years. Exclusion criteria were known heart failure or cardiac abnormality on echocardiography or other imaging. Medical history, clinical examination, full blood examination and biochemistry (without lipids and glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c)) were performed for 3847 participants on enrolment, and blood pressure, lipids and HbA1c were measured 1-2 years after enrolment for 3203 participants. RESULTS: Despite 99% of 3294 participants with hypertension receiving antihypertensive medication, half had blood pressures >140/90 mmHg. Approximately 77% of participants were overweight or obese, with one third being obese. Additionally, 74% of participants at high cardiovascular disease risk had low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels ≥2 mmol/L, one third of diabetic participants had HbA1c >7%, 22% had an estimated glomerular filtration rate < 60 mL/min/1.73m2 , and substantial proportions had under-utilisation of antiplatelet therapy and anticoagulation for atrial fibrillation and were physically inactive. CONCLUSIONS: This population demonstrated substantial potential to reduce cardiovascular and renal morbidity and mortality and healthcare costs through more effective management of modifiable risk factors.

Background Body mass index †Deceased. (BMI) is a risk factor for heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). Design We investigated the threshold BMI and sex-specific waist circumference associated with increased HFpEF incidence in the SCReening Evaluation of the Evolution of New Heart Failure (SCREEN-HF) study, a cohort study of a community-based population at increased cardiovascular disease risk. Methods Inclusion criteria were age ≥60 years with one or more of self-reported hypertension, diabetes, heart disease, abnormal heart rhythm, cerebrovascular disease or renal impairment. Exclusion criteria were known heart failure, ejection fraction Results HFpEF incidence rates were higher for BMI ≥27.5 kg/m2 than for BMI 2, and for waist circumference >100 cm (men) or > 90 cm (women) than for waist circumference ≤94 cm (men) or ≤ 83 cm (women) in Poisson regression analysis. Semiparametric proportional hazards analyses confirmed these BMI and waist circumference thresholds, and exceeding these thresholds was associated with an attributable risk of HFpEF of 44–49%. Conclusions Both central obesity and overweight were associated with increased HFpEF incidence. Although a randomised trial of weight control would be necessary to establish a causal relationship between obesity/overweight and HFpEF incidence, these data suggest that maintenance of BMI and waist circumference below these thresholds in a community similar to that of the SCREEN-HF cohort may reduce the HFpEF incidence rate by as much as 50%.

Aims We investigated which serum amino-terminal pro-B-type-natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels inform heart failure (HF) risk in a community-based population at increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Methods and results Inclusion criteria were age ≥ 60 years with one or more of self-reported hypertension, diabetes, heart disease, abnormal heart rhythm, cerebrovascular disease, or renal impairment. Exclusion criteria were known HF, ejection fraction (EF) 76% and specificities of 47–69% for 5-year prediction of total HF in men and women in all three age groups. Sensitivities were ≥ 75% in most subgroups according to body mass index, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and the presence or absence of atrial fibrillation, pacemaker, or CVD, and for the prediction of HFpEF, HFrEF and VHF. Conclusion Age-specific serum NT-proBNP levels inform prognosis, and hence therapeutic decisions, regarding HF risk in individuals at increased CVD risk.

BackgroundThe lack of effective therapies for heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) reflects an incomplete understanding of its pathogenesis.DesignWe analysed baseline risk factors for incident HFpEF, heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and valvular heart failure (VHF) in a community-based cohort.MethodsWe recruited 2101 men and 1746 women ≥60 years of age with hypertension, diabetes, ischaemic heart disease (IHD), abnormal heart rhythm, cerebrovascular disease or renal impairment. Exclusion criteria were known heart failure, left ventricular ejection fraction mild in severity. Median follow-up was 5.6 (IQR 4.6–6.3) years.ResultsMedian time to heart failure diagnosis in 162 participants was 4.5 (IQR 2.7–5.4) years, 73 with HFpEF, 53 with HFrEF and 36 with VHF. Baseline age and amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide levels were associated with HFpEF, HFrEF and VHF. Pulse pressure, IHD, waist circumference, obstructive sleep apnoea and pacemaker were associated with HFpEF and HFrEF; atrial fibrillation (AF) and warfarin therapy were associated with HFpEF and VHF and peripheral vascular disease and low platelet count were associated with HFrEF and VHF. Additional risk factors for HFpEF were body mass index (BMI), hypertension, diabetes, renal dysfunction, low haemoglobin, white cell count and β-blocker, statin, loop diuretic, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory and clopidogrel therapies, for HFrEF were male gender and cigarette smoking and for VHF were low diastolic blood pressure and alcohol intake. BMI, diabetes, low haemoglobin, white cell count and warfarin therapy were more strongly associated with HFpEF than HFrEF, whereas male gender and low platelet count were more strongly associated with HFrEF than HFpEF.ConclusionsOur data suggest a major role for BMI, hypertension, diabetes, renal dysfunction, and inflammation in HFpEF pathogenesis; strategies directed to prevention of these risk factors may prevent a sizeable proportion of HFpEF in the community.Trial registration numberNCT00400257, NCT00604006 and NCT01581827.

Effective management of cardiovascular and chronic kidney disease risk factors offers longer, healthier lives and savings in healthcare.To examine risk factor management in participants of the SCReening Evaluation of the Evolution of New Heart Failure study, a self-selected population at increased cardiovascular disease risk recruited from members of a health insurance fund in Melbourne and Shepparton, Australia.Inclusion criteria were age ≥ 60 years with one or more self-reported ischaemic or other heart diseases, irregular or rapid heart rhythm, cerebrovascular disease, renal impairment or treatment for hypertension or diabetes for ≥2 years. Exclusion criteria were known heart failure or cardiac abnormality on echocardiography or other imaging. Medical history, clinical examination, full blood examination and biochemistry (without lipids and glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c)) were performed for 3847 participants on enrolment, and blood pressure, lipids and HbA1c were measured 1-2 years after enrolment for 3203 participants.Despite 99% of 3294 participants with hypertension receiving antihypertensive medication, half had blood pressures140/90 mmHg. Approximately 77% of participants were overweight or obese, with one third being obese. Additionally, 74% of participants at high cardiovascular disease risk had low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels ≥2 mmol/L, one third of diabetic participants had HbA1c7%, 22% had an estimated glomerular filtration rate60 mL/min/1.73mThis population demonstrated substantial potential to reduce cardiovascular and renal morbidity and mortality and healthcare costs through more effective management of modifiable risk factors.

Background There is debate whether the J-curve relationship between cardiac event risk and DBP is because of inherent cardiac risk or is a consequence of blood pressure (BP) lowering therapy. Methods We examined the association between the cardiovascular risk marker amino-terminal-pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and DBP in 1781 women and 2211 men aged at least 60 years with one or more cardiovascular risk factors; exclusion criteria were known heart failure or cardiac abnormality on a cardiac imaging study. Results The lowest median serum NT-proBNP levels were for DBP 85-89 mmHg for both women and men. DBP less than 70 mmHg in women and less than 80 mmHg in men was associated with higher NT-proBNP levels than the levels at DBP 85-89 mmHg, and this relationship was present for those with SBP equal to or less than 140 and SBP greater than 140 mmHg. In conditional logistic regression models, the association of elevated NT-proBNP levels with low DBP in women was no longer statistically significant after adjustment for age, ischaemic heart disease (IHD), pulse rate, atrial fibrillation, haemoglobin and glomerular filtration rate, whereas the association in men was no longer statistically significant after adjustment for age and IHD. By contrast, the association between elevated NT-proBNP levels and low DBP remained statistically significant after adjustment for the number of antihypertensive drug classes alone or together with all antihypertensive drugs, including β-blocker therapy. Conclusion There was a J-curve relationship between the cardiovascular risk marker NT-proBNP and DBP that was explained by the clinical variables and not by the BP-lowering therapy.