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International audience; Restrictions in empirical research of biological communities have limited our understanding of the combined influence of environmental variability and system structure on community composition. Spatial patterns of community composition in less accessible systems, such as marine benthos, can often not be explained by many factors beyond the direct impact of the environment on community members. We present a method that combines commonly collected data of community composition with analyses of qualitative mathematical models, to assess not only direct impacts of environmental variability, but also the propagation of impacts through complex interaction networks. Transformed spatial data of community composition describe the community members’ observed similarity of response to an external input. The output of qualitative mathematical models describes the community members’ predicted similarity of response to input entering the system through any of its variables. A statistically significant agreement between the observed and any of the predicted response similarities indicates the respective system variable as a likely gateway for environmental variability into the system. The method is applied to benthic macroinvertebrate communities in the Rance estuary (Brittany, France). Organisms identified as likely gateways have traits that agree with their predicted response to documented spatially and temporally structured environmental variability. We suggest use of this novel framework for more comprehensive identification of environmental drivers of community change, including gateway community members and cascades of environmentally driven change through community structure.

Ecological Risk Assessments (ERAs) are important tools for supporting evidence-based decision making. However, most ERA frameworks rarely consider complex ecological feedbacks, which limit their capacity to evaluate risks at community and ecosystem levels of organisation.We used qualitative mathematical modelling to add additional perspectives to previously conducted ERAs for the rehabilitation of the Ranger uranium mine (Northern Territory, Australia) and support an assessment of the cumulative risks from the mine site. Using expert elicitation workshops, separate qualitative models and scenarios were developed for aquatic and terrestrial systems. The models developed in the workshops were used to construct Bayes Nets that predicted whole-of-ecosystem outcomes after components were perturbed.The terrestrial model considered the effect of fire and weeds on established native vegetation that will be important for the successful rehabilitation of Ranger. It predicted that a combined intervention that suppresses both weeds and fire intensity gave similar response predictions as for weed control alone, except for lower levels of certainty to tall grasses and fire intensity in models with immature trees or tall grasses. However, this had ambiguous predictions for short grasses and forbs, and tall grasses in models representing mature vegetation. The aquatic model considered the effects of magnesium (Mg), a key solute in current and predicted mine runoff and groundwater egress, which is known to adversely affect many aquatic species. The aquatic models provided support that attached algae and phytoplankton assemblages are the key trophic base for food webs. It predicted that shifts in phytoplankton abundance arising from increase in Mg to receiving waters, may result in cascading effects through the food-chain.The qualitative modelling approach was flexible and capable of modelling both gradual (i.e. decadal) processes in the mine-site restoration and the comparatively more rapid (seasonal) processes of the aquatic ecosystem. The modelling also provides a useful decision tool for identifying important ecosystem sub-systems for further research efforts.

Managing the cumulative effects (CE) that arise from human and natural stressors is one of the most urgent and complex problems facing coastal and marine decision makers today. In the absence of effective processes, models, and political will, decision-makers struggle to implement management strategies that effectively tackle cumulative effects. Emerging efforts to address cumulative effects provide a timely opportunity to assess the efficacy of a range of management strategies operating at different scales and in different legislative and cultural contexts. Using primarily qualitative methodologies including literature reviews, focus groups, and workshops, this paper compares cumulative effects approaches within the Reef 2050 Plan for the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park (GBRMP), Australia, with those in Aotearoa New Zealand (Aotearoa NZ). Both case studies illustrate that cumulative effects management is especially complicated by: fragmented legislative regimes and institutions that cannot account for cross-scale or cross-sector interactions; chronic data scarcity and high levels of uncertainty that make system-based assessments and predictions challenging; and often conflicting societal and economic expectations, values, and rights that are poorly integrated into management decision-making. By considering how these two cases align with transformational change characteristics, we draw several conclusions and establish priority actions regarding (1) how to mobilise resources and political will to address CE, (2) how to deal with data scarcity and uncertainty, and (3) how to promote comprehensive and inclusive CE management of coastal and marine areas.

Animals exposed to high levels of predation risk may exhibit a variety of changes in life history, behaviour, physiology and morphology that can affect survival. Under predation threat, prey individuals may increase their aerobic metabolism to allocate energy toward escaping behaviours (e.g. ‘fight or flight’), although the associated energetic cost of such behaviour remains largely unknown. Lobsters display different anti-predatory responses, such as sheltering and/or escaping, but the underlying energetic cost of such responses has not been examined. Here, we tested the aerobic metabolic response of southern rock lobsters Jasus edwardsii in the presence of predator (Maori octopus Octopus maorum) olfactory cues (kairomones) using open-flow respirometry. We examined the routine metabolic rate of lobsters in response to predator kairomones during the active phase of their diurnal cycle (at night) to investigate the physiological anti-predator response when lobsters are most vulnerable. Our findings revealed that lobsters strongly reduced their routine metabolism for 3 h by 31.4% when exposed to kairomones in comparison to controls. Our findings suggest that under laboratory conditions, lobsters exposed to predation risk during the night reduce their activity to avoid predators, i.e. the anti-predator mechanism is to be immobile or inactive rather than showing a fight-or-flight response. Lobster immobility may be an energetically advantageous anti-predator response in the short term; however, prolonged or regular predator exposure could have significant consequences on foraging time and foraging area, with an overall impact on lobster performance, particularly in environments with high predator presence such as fishing grounds.

Funding for the research was embedded with the Australian Seafood Cooperative Research Centre’s (CRC) future aquaculture production programme (Project 2011-735). Understanding causal relationships within complex business environments represents an essential component in a decision-maker's toolset when evaluating alternative aquaculture production technologies. This article assesses the utility of employing signed digraph qualitative modeling to support technology selection decision-making through evaluating the adoption of three alternative production expansion strategies (offshore production, IMTA, or land-based RAS) by the Atlantic salmon industry. Results underlined the benefits of strategically understanding the dynamics of demand growth, emphasized the requirement to address societal concerns early; and indicated that levels of ambiguity are lowest with expansion offshore and highest with land-based RAS growout. The research suggests that signed digraph modeling can provide an objective perspective on the levels of uncertainty and causal linkages within a business environment when exploring aquaculture adoption technology scenarios. Postprint

Synthetic gene drives could provide new solutions to a range of old problems such as controlling vector-borne diseases, agricultural pests and invasive species. In this paper, we outline methods to identify hazards and detect potentially adverse ecological outcomes at the individual (genotype, phenotype), population, community and ecosystem level, when progressing Gene Drive Modified Organisms through a phased test and release pathway. We discuss the strengths and weaknesses of checklists and structured hazard analysis techniques, identify methods to help meet some of the challenges of detecting adverse ecological outcomes in experiments and confined field trials, and discuss ways to improve the efficiency and statistical rigour of post-release monitoring strategies.

1. A robust scientific conclusion is the result of a rigorous scientific process. In observational ecology, this process involves making inferences about a population from a sample. The sample is crucial, and is the result of implementing a survey design. A good survey design ensures that the data from the survey are capable of answering the research question. Better designs, such as spatially balanced designs, will also be as precise as possible given the constraints of the budget. 2. Many study areas will have previously sampled ‘legacy sites’ that already have accumulated a time series of observations. For estimating trent, it is often beneficial to include these sites within a new survey. In this paper, we propose a method to incorporate the locations of legacy sites into new spatially balanced survey designs to ensure spatial balance among all sample locations. 3. Simulation experiments indicate that incorporating the spatial location of legacy sites increases spatial balance and decreases uncertainty in inferences (smaller standard errors in mean estimates) when compared to designs that ignore legacy site locations. We illustrate the process of incorporating legacy sites using a proposed survey of a large marine reserve in South-Eastern Australia, although the method is applicable to all environments. 4. Our approach allows for integration of legacy sites into a new spatially balanced design, increasing efficiency. Scientists, managers and funders alike will benefit from this methodology – it provides a tool to provide efficient survey designs around established ones, including in-the-field adjustments. In this way, it can aid integrated monitoring programmes. An R-package that implements these methods, called MBHdesign, is available from CRAN.

Monitoring provides important feedback on how social and environmental systems are tracking and whether or not human activities, including management activities, are having an impact. This paper describes an approach applied to develop an integrated monitoring framework to inform adaptive management of the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area, a complex, multi-jurisdictional, multi-sectoral marine system of international importance. It identifies the gaps and opportunities to integrate the existing long-term, short-term and compliance-related monitoring and reporting initiatives to provide the information for more effective and efficient (adaptive) management of the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area. And as importantly it aligns expectations among different agencies about how monitoring will inform management. Fifty two high priority values, processes and pressures for management were identified along with 65 existing monitoring programs. Developing the monitoring framework was useful in several ways. First it brought together scientists, policy-makers, managers, and other interested stakeholders with different agendas, philosophies and incentives and established a common purpose, lexicon and language for an integrated monitoring program. Second, it highlighted the importance and usefulness of qualitative conceptual models as a framework for focused discussion around a set of hypotheses with relevance for management. Third, the process started an important conversation about defining and setting a realistic number of monitoring priorities for management. Finally, it has provided direction for how to build on existing initiatives to develop an integrated monitoring program for a globally significant world heritage area.

Contribution to the Theme Section ‘Drivers of dynamics of small pelagic fish resources: biology, management and human factors’.-- 18 pages, 4 figures, 8 tables, Important changes have been observed in recent decades in small pelagic fish (SPF) populations of the NW Mediterranean Sea: Declines in biomass and landings of European anchovy and sardine, and a geographical expansion of round sardinella. These changes have been linked to environmental factors directly influencing annual recruitment and growth. The role of climate change in affecting the composition of plankton has also been suggested to explain declines in SPF, while other causes could be the recovery of predators, competition with other pelagic organisms that prey on early life phases of SPF (i.e. gelatinous zooplankton), interspecific competition for food, or impacts from fisheries harvest. To test the role of these potential pressures, we developed qualitative mathematical models of a NW Mediterranean pelagic food web. We used analyses of sign directed graphs and Bayesian belief networks to compare alternative hypotheses about how SPF species may have responded to combinations of different pressures. Data documenting changes in SPF populations were used to test predicted directions of change from signed digraph models. An increase in sea surface temperature (SST) that had either a positive impact on round sardinella or on gelatinous zooplankton abundance was the pressure that alone provided the most plausible insights into observed changes. A combination of various pressures, including an increase in SST, an increase of exploitation and changes to zooplankton also delivered results matching current observations. Predators of SPF were identified as the most informative monitoring variable to discern between likely causes of perturbations to populations of SPF, This study was funded by the ECO-TRANS (CTM2011-26333; Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitivity), SafeNET (EU-DGMARE MARE/2014/41) and PELWEB (ES-PN-2017-CTM2017-88939-R) projects. M.A.-P. was funded through an FPI grant from the Spanish government. J.N. was supported by the Spanish National Program Ramón y Cajal

The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) agreed in 2008 on the need to identify Ecologically or Biologically Significant Marine Areas (EBSAs) in the world's oceans to focus future conservation and management efforts. From 2010 to 2014, 9 workshops had described 204 areas meeting the EBSA criteria in approximately 68% of the world's oceans. The workshops comprised experts nominated by more than 100 governments and a similar number of regional and global non government and intergovernmental organizations, supported by a technical team that collated data and provided mapping expertise. Despite this progress, there is uncertainty about how to use EBSA in Marine Spatial Planning (MSP). We review a suite of the existing MSP, Ecosystem Based Management, fisheries and conservation frameworks to determine their common elements and suggest how they can be synthesized. We propose an adaptive hierarchical approach that takes key elements from existing frameworks and show how EBSA can be used to support this approach within national jurisdictions and in areas beyond national jurisdiction. The adaptive hierarchical process encourages early implementation of MSP/EBM using available scientific knowledge and governance and supports the gradual progress to more complex and information rich structures as needed and appropriate. The EBSA process provides a sound basis for developing the scientific advice to support national and international management of the world's oceans by identifying marine systems and the criteria for which they are valued by regional experts.

Climate change could significantly alter forest productivity and climax states. Hence modelling productivity under climate change will need to account for many alternative ecosystem states. We apply qualitative modelling to identify the most likely ecosystem representations for a well-researched Tasmanian forest. Its main ecosystem is a tiered forest with rainforest, wet sclerophyll and myrtaceae components. Interactions between these components are uncertain, especially under additional pressures from climate change. Qualitative modelling is a structured method to analyse these uncertainties. We identify the most appropriate models and research efforts for model development. Further, we identify research needs for interactions between root pathogens and forest components, with research on some impacts of system components on fire being ruled out. The qualitative modelling approach applied here was useful in identifying research priorities for modelling complex ecosystems, even under uncertain system understanding or deficiencies in quantitative data. Qualitative modelling provides a way of conceptualising and addressing uncertainty in ecosystems under climate change.Limited knowledge of ecosystem interaction requires alternative ecosystem models, which results in multiple research avenues.Testing model predictions against known system dynamics enables excluding less likely models and model component linkages.Identifying less likely models and linkages focuses research efforts on critical knowledge gaps.

(IF 2.87; Q1); International audience; As part of the energy transition, the French government is planning the construction of Offshore Wind Farms (OWFs) in Normandy. These OWFs will be integrated into an ecosystem already facing multiple anthropogenic disturbances. A holistic view of cumulated impacts (OWF construction, global warming and fisheries) were developed on the Courseulles-sur-Mer’ ecosystem through the use of a qualitative mathematical modelling approach. This modelling approach provides the mean to consider alternative hypotheses about how the ecosystem structure and function affects its dynamics. Alternative models were constructed to address the different hypotheses regarding the behaviour of top predator (whether the top predators will be scared away by the OWF or attracted by the reef effect), impacts of global warming and changes in fisheries activities. Key findings from these analyses are that the OWF construction could lead to an increase in benthos species and fish benthos feeders whatever the perturbation scenario, while the predicted response of top predators was ambiguous across all perturbation scenario. Qualitative modelling results can play a vital role in decision making by improving long term planning for the marine environment but also as a tool for communication with the public and so contribute to a better acceptability of the Marine Renewable Energy (MRE) project.

Identifying essential biological variables in marine ecosystems is harder than essential ocean variables because choices about the latter are guided by the needs of global oceanic models, and the number of candidate variables to choose from is much smaller. We present a process designed to assist managers identify biological indicators and essential variables for marine ecosystems, and demonstrate its application to Australia's Exclusive Economic Zone. The process begins with a spatially explicit description of key ecological systems and predicts how these systems are impacted by anthropogenic pressures. The process does not require experts to agree on the system's structure or the activities that threaten the ecosystem. Rather it defines a suite of pressure scenarios that accommodate uncertainty in these aspects, and seeks to identify indicators that are predicted to respond in a consistent fashion across these scenarios. When the process is applied at national or regional scales, essential biological variables emerge as the set of consistent indicators that are common to similar but spatially distinct systems.

A theoretically promised confluence of favorable biological, economic, and social outcomes in neoliberal solutions for fisheries is illusory. The required commodification of the fish, including the species and accompanying oceanic commons enclosures, result in contradictions that cannot be understood within the neoclassical economic paradigm. A process of dialectical abstraction and qualitative modeling exposes the source and mechanism of the contradictions providing an alternative basis for discourse on the fishery and the commons.

Models are increasingly used to support decision-making in the management of natural resources. They can provide system understanding, learning, a platform for stakeholder engagement, projections of system behaviour and an environment for virtual testing of alternative management strategies. However, rarely is a single numerical model suitable for all these purposes. Our experience is that a suite of models of different size, complexity and scope can be more effective and can better address the needs of environmental management projects. Models of different complexity can address different needs, but can also be combined as a flexibly sculpted tool kit – as they require very different development effort they can be deployed at different stages during a project. Using rapidly deployed qualitative, or simple quantitative, models stakeholders can be exposed to models very early in the project, eliciting feedback on appropriate model content and familiarity with the modelling process without affecting the development of more complex, resource intensive, models aimed at answering core management questions. This early and continuous stakeholder exposure to models provides flexibility in addressing specific novel questions as they arise during project development, as well as an opportunity for developing skills and changing both modellers and stakeholders’ attitudes, as is often needed when facing complex problems. Using an example where we used five different model types in an effort to inform policy-making around regional multiple use management in north-western Australia, we describe (i) how each model type can be used, (ii) the different roles the models cover, and (iii) how they fit into a full decision making process and stakeholder engagement. We conclude by summarising the lessons we learnt.

The large tuna resources of the Western and Central Pacific Ocean are delivering great economic benefits to Pacific Island countries and territories (PICTs) through sale of licences to distant water fishing nations and employment in fish processing. However, tuna needs to contribute to Pacific Island societies in another important way—by increasing local access to the fish required for good nutrition to help combat the world’s highest levels of diabetes and obesity. Analyses reported here demonstrate that coastal fisheries in 16 of the 22 PICTs will not provide the fish recommended for good nutrition of growing Pacific Island populations, and that by 2020 tuna will need to supply 12% of the fish required by PICTs for food security, increasing to 25% by 2035. In relative terms, the percentages of the region’s tuna catch that will be needed in 2020 and 2035 to fill the gap in domestic fish supply are small, i.e., 2.1% and 5.9% of the average present-day industrial catch, respectively. Interventions based on expanding the use of nearshore fish aggregating devices (FADs) to assist small-scale fishers catch tuna, distributing small tuna and bycatch offloaded by industrial fleets at regional ports, and improving access to canned tuna for inland populations, promise to increase access to fish for sustaining the health of the region’s growing populations. The actions, research and policies required to implement these interventions effectively, and the investments needed to maintain the stocks underpinning the considerable socio-economic benefits that flow from tuna, are described.

A major decline in the catch of the banana prawn [shrimp], Penaeus (Fenneropenaeus) merguiensis, occurred over a six-year period in the Weipa region of the northeastern Gulf of Carpentaria, Australia. Three main hypotheses have been developed to explain this decline: (1) prawn recruitment collapsed due to overfishing; (2) recruitment collapsed due to a change in the prawn's environment; and (3) adult banana prawns were still present, but fishers could no longer effectively find or catch them. Qualitative mathematical models were used to link population biology, environmental factors, and fishery dynamics to evaluate the alternative hypotheses. This modeling approach provides the means to rapidly integrate knowledge across disciplines and consider alternative hypotheses about how the structure and function of an ecosystem affects its dynamics. Alternative models were constructed to address the different hypotheses and also to encompass a diversity of opinion about the underlying dynamics of the system. Key findings from these analyses are that: instability in the system can arise when discarded fishery bycatch supports relatively high predation pressure; system stability can be enhanced by management of fishing effort or stock catchability; catch per unit effort is not necessarily a reliable indicator of stock abundance; a change in early-season rainfall should affect all stages in the banana prawn's life cycle; and a reduced catch in the Weipa region can create and reinforce a shift in fishing effort away from Weipa. Results from the models informed an approach to test the hypotheses (i.e., an experimental fishing program), and promoted understanding of the system among researchers, management agencies, and industry. The analytical tools developed in this work to address stages of a prawn life cycle and fishery dynamics are generally applicable to any exploited natural. resource.

WOS:000411771800028; International audience; In order to better understand and predict the dynamics of benthic macroinvertebrate communities, we need to first define the functional components of benthic biodiversity and then provide a mechanistic description of how they interact with their abiotic environment, their basic resources and each other. These interactions should be largely controlled by readily available biological traits, making trait-based modelling an ideal framework for the synthesis of relevant hypotheses from ecological theory and expert knowledge. With the help of benthic species traits, we derived a set of first principles regarding the role of organisms in processes of environmental filtering, consumption of algae/detritus, predation, use of space, biogenic habitat modification and trade-offs in the utilization and allocation of resources. These principles were incorporated into qualitative models in the form of functional relationships linking groups of,benthic organisms in the Rance estuary (Brittany, France). The general stability of these models illustrates their potential to persist in time and to constitute a plausible representation of the natural world. Their structure provides insight into the role of various community assembly mechanisms and the direction that the system might take in response to perturbations. The results are expected to inform the development of quantitative models reproducing the spatial and temporal dynamics of marine benthic biodiversity in the Rance estuary.

Estuaries around the world are often degraded and subject to issues surrounding effective management and governance. Without substantial changes in the overall management of many catchments, there is a risk that estuarine health will further decline, causing serious social and economic impacts. The Peel region is one of Australia's fastest growing residential areas and the social and economic wellbeing of the local community is tied to the health of the Peel–Harvey estuary. This estuary is the largest in south Western Australia and has for decades incurred considerable anthropogenic impacts. This study uses the Peel–Harvey estuary as a case study for the assessment of governance structures and ecosystem dynamics using qualitative models. Each model highlights drivers that impact the most important assets, water quality and general environmental quality. Potential management strategies are identified to tackle ineffective monitoring and regulation of impacts, overlapping responsibilities between different public infrastructure providers, and a lack of accountability. Incorporating ‘ideal’ management strategies into ‘future’ models clarified paths of governance and provided better delivery of outcomes. Strong environmental and nutrient management were integral to effective environmental governance, as was the need for whole-of-government environmental decisions to be made in the context of predicted longer-term benefits for all sectors, including the general community. The assessment of social–ecological structures, issues and potential management strategies using qualitative models identified mechanisms to achieve effective management and resulted in predictions of increased environmental quality, as well as increased social and economic values.

Long-term time series of sardine and anchovy landings often suggest negative dependence between these species, and an array of mechanisms have been proposed as explanations. We reduce these propositions to four basic hypotheses of (1) independence, (2) correlated process noise, (3) interspecific interactions, and (4) correlated observational error. We use a Bayesian approach to develop priors for parsimonious state space models with both process noise and observation error that represent each of these hypotheses, and apply this approach to five long-term time series of landings collected from the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Model comparison criteria suggest that the hypothesis of correlated process noise has the broadest support, where the temporal dependence of anchovy and sardines may be caused in part by either direct environmental influence on their physiology, or indirect bottom-up effects on their prey. However, all hypotheses find some degree of support within the five time series, and in general, the sardine and anchovy landings suggest weak intraspecific density dependence and susceptibility to both environmental and anthropogenic perturbation. Results additionally suggest that the best fitting hypothesis depends on the choice of geographic scale, temporal scale, and stock definition of the recorded landings.

In Australia the European carp is widespread, environmentally damaging and difficult to control. Genetic control options are being developed for this species but risk-assessment studies to support these options have been limited. The key science challenge in this context is our limited understanding of complex and highly variable ecosystems. Hierarchical models are one way to approach this complexity and heterogeneity. These models treat the factors that determine risk as a joint probability distribution that can be factored into a series of simpler conditional distributions to allow Bayesian inference following observed outcomes. Designing a risk assessment around this approach, however, requires that the assessment endpoints (such as impacts on native species) are measurable, and that monitoring strategies are carefully designed and implemented in order that risk predictions are compared to outcomes. We therefore suggest that an evidence-based framework, supported by careful hazard analysis and quantitative risk assessment, and implemented within a stage-released protocol, is the safest way to move beyond the current emphasis on contained laboratory studies and qualitative risk assessments. We highlight impediments to this approach, and use the non-target impacts of daughterless carp in Australian billabongs as a case study to illustrate three methodological tools that not only provide solutions to some of these impediments but also encourage stakeholder participation in the risk assessment process.

There is an obvious need for comprehensive interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary research programs that can assist in the management of marine and coastal environments. An ongoing problem is to how to integrate this research into the ongoing development and evaluation of policy and management plans. A large scale systematic research program focused on the Ningaloo Coral Reef and its coastal terrestrial environment has been conducted. Many specific research projects were undertaken varying from bathymetry and fish behaviour to the needs and attitudes of tourists. Over fifty research projects were included. Integration of the findings is being achieved through a series of modelling activities of varying complexity including simple fish population models to a whole-of-system model. This paper provides an understanding of how this research fitted with the overall social system of interaction between decision makers and local stakeholders, and how the information could reach and be made relevant to all roles in regard to the management of Ningaloo. A network approach was developed through interviews and the construction of ego networks. The results of this study revealed clusters of groups that performed particular roles for reef management, and showed that the science cluster demonstrated the characteristics of the ‘Coordinator Role’ within their own cluster but did not demonstrate the ‘Liaison Role’ with other groups and only a low score for the representative ‘Brokerage Role’. The Research Liaison group was potentially able to reach the entire management system within three links, but it was evident that this potential was not necessarily being fully achieved. The advantages of understanding the role of science in wider decision making networks are discussed in relation to the uptake of integrated research. Specifically, in this case it was found that the scientists and key coordinating group for the program had fragile connections with the decision making community, which could have been strengthened by earlier systematic understanding of how the decision making network operated.

Stakeholder engagement is important for successful management of natural resources, both to make effective decisions and to obtain support. However, in the context of coastal management, questions remain unanswered on how to effectively link decisions made at the catchment level with objectives for marine biodiversity and fisheries productivity. Moreover, there is much uncertainty on how to best elicit community input in a rigorous manner that supports management decisions. A decision support process is described that uses the adaptive management loop as its basis to elicit management objectives, priorities and management options using two case studies in the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. The approach described is then generalised for international interest. A hierarchical engagement model of local stakeholders, regional and senior managers is used. The result is a semi-quantitative generic elicitation framework that ultimately provides a prioritised list of management options in the context of clearly articulated management objectives that has widespread application for coastal communities worldwide. The case studies show that demand for local input and regional management is high, but local influences affect the relative success of both engagement processes and uptake by managers. Differences between case study outcomes highlight the importance of discussing objectives prior to suggesting management actions, and avoiding or minimising conflicts at the early stages of the process. Strong contributors to success are a) the provision of local information to the community group, and b) the early inclusion of senior managers and influencers in the group to ensure the intellectual and time investment is not compromised at the final stages of the process. The project has uncovered a conundrum in the significant gap between the way managers perceive their management actions and outcomes, and community's perception of the effectiveness (and wisdom) of these same management actions. Crown Copyright (C) 2016 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The crown-of-thorns starfish Acanthaster planci (COTS) has contributed greatly to declines in coral cover on Australia's Great Barrier Reef, and remains one of the major acute disturbances on Indo-Pacific coral reefs. Despite uncertainty about the underlying causes of outbreaks and the management responses that might address them, few studies have critically and directly compared competing hypotheses. This study uses qualitative modelling to compare hypotheses relating to outbreak initiation, explicitly considering the potential role of positive feedbacks, elevated nutrients, and removal of starfish predators by fishing. When nutrients and fishing are considered in isolation, the models indicate that a range of alternative hypotheses are capable of explaining outbreak initiation with similar levels of certainty. The models also suggest that outbreaks may be caused by multiple factors operating simultaneously, rather than by single proximal causes. As the complexity and realism of the models increased, the certainty of outcomes decreased, but key areas that require further research to improve the structure of the models were identified. Nutrient additions were likely to result in outbreaks only when COTS larvae alone benefitted from nutrients. Similarly, the effects of fishing on the decline of corals depended on the complexity of interactions among several categories of fishes. Our work suggests that management approaches which seek to be robust to model structure uncertainty should allow for multiple potential causes of outbreaks. Monitoring programs can provide tests of alternative potential causes of outbreaks if they specifically monitor all key taxa at reefs that are exposed to appropriate combinations of potential causal factors.

Allain, Valerie ... et. al.-- 5 pages, 1 figure

Although many species in the pelagic ocean are widespread, they are not randomly distributed. These species may have associations with particular water masses or habitats, but to best understand patterns in the ocean, these habitats must be identified. Previous efforts have produced static or seasonal climatologies, which still represent smearing over habitats. The Eastern Tuna and Billfish Longline Fishery (ETBF) targets a range of high trophic level species in oceanic waters off eastern Australia. In this study, dynamic ocean habitats in the region were identified for each month based on cluster analysis of five oceanographic variables averaged at a monthly time scale and a spatial scale of 0.5° for the period 1995–2006. A total of seven persistent habitats were identified off eastern Australia with intra and interannual variation in size and location, indicating the importance of spatial and temporal variation in the dynamics of the region. The degree to which these dynamic habitats were distinguished was tested using (i) stable isotope analysis of top fish predators caught in the region and (ii) estimates of variation in estimated abundance generated from catch data from the fishery. More precise estimates (measured as lower total CV) of isotopic values from swordfish (Xiphias gladius), yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) and albacore (Thunnus alalunga) were obtained for 4 of 6 isotope comparisons using the dynamic habitat groupings, which indicate that stratifying by pelagic habitat improved precision. Dynamic habitats produced more precise abundance estimates for 7 of 8 large pelagic species examined, with an average reduction in total CV of 19% compared to when abundance was estimated based on static habitat stratification. These findings could be used to guide development of effective monitoring strategies that can distinguish patterns due to environmental variation, and in the longer term, climate change.

Management of fisheries around the world is challenged by fishing impacts on habitats, bycatch species, threatened and endangered species, and even associated ecological communities. One response to these other factors has been a call for ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM), which demands consideration of the above non-target interactions. A challenge with implementation of EBFM is the scale and range of issues to be considered, all of which cannot be addressed at the same level of detail as for target species, due to data or time constraints. We developed an approach to progress the EBFM mandate in Australia, using a new ecological risk assessment framework applied to fisheries, termed Ecological Risk Assessment for the Effects of Fishing (ERAEF). Novel features of this framework include its hierarchical structure and its precautionary approach to uncertainty. The amount of information required increases through the hierarchy, and allows application in data-limited situations. The ERAEF framework has been applied to over 30 fisheries in Australia and elsewhere. The efficiencies in application of the hierarchical approach are illustrated by the south-east otter trawl fishery, where following Level 1 assessment of all components, an initial set of 600 species and 158 habitats was reduced to a group of concern of 159 species and 46 habitats using the Level 2 analysis, with the number of species of concern further reduced to 25 following Level 3 analysis. As a result of the assessments in Australia, management actions have been enacted for a range of the high risk species. Overall, the ERAEF approach offers a realistic method to assess ecological risk in an EBFM context, and has applicability in a wide range of fisheries. The interactive and inclusive nature of the approach also has the advantage of bringing stakeholders, scientists and managers together to develop management solutions.

1. Invaded ecosystems present complex management issues. This problem is exacerbated in many situations by a lack of knowledge about the ecosystem. However, delaying conservation action to collect further data and so reduce such uncertainty is often either impractical or inadvisable. 2. The Macquarie Island Pest Eradication Project, currently underway, is attempting to eradicate rabbits, rats, and mice from the island. We undertook qualitative modelling of this project, examining a range of likely outcomes and their possible ecological consequences. The results were aggregated across a large number of possible models, in order to account for uncertainty concerning interactions within the ecosystem. 3. The results strongly support the current actions of simultaneous eradication of all three pest species, as simulated eradications of only one or two generally led to continued impacts on the island's native biota. The results also provided support for the anticipated positive outcomes of the project, with predicted recoveries of tall tussock vegetation, and burrow- and surface-nesting seabirds. 4. However, the model predictions also highlighted potential risks: the eradication of mice from the island may not succeed, due in part to the structural position of this species within the ecosystem. Successful eradication of all three target species could potentially release the self-introduced, non-native redpolls and starlings, allowing expansion of their populations, with possible impacts on macro-invertebrates and vegetation. 5. Synthesis and applications. These results demonstrate that qualitative modelling approaches can in some cases deliver consistent results, despite high levels of uncertainty regarding interactions within the underlying ecosystem. Such outcomes can provide assistance in the development of strategic contingency plans and ongoing future management action.

This work examined diet data from studies of top pelagic predators from three large regions of the equatorial and South Pacific Ocean. Food webs of each of these three systems were found to have relatively high species diversity, but in contrast to other marine systems, relatively low connectance. Food webs were examined using graph-theoretic methods, which included aggregating species based on food-web relationships and identification of potentially influential species. Species aggregations were used to construct simplified qualitative models from each region’s food web. Models from each region were then analyzed to make predictions of response to climate change for six commercially important species: mahi mahi, skipjack tuna, albacore tuna, yellowfin tuna, bigeye tuna, and swordfish. We found little commonality in the structure of the three food webs, although the two regions in the equatorial Pacific had food webs composed of four predation tiers, as defined by network levels of predation, whereas the south-western region had only three predation tiers. We also found no consistent pattern in the predicted outcomes of the perturbations, which underlines the need for detailed trophic databases to adequately describe regional pelagic ecosystems. This work demonstrates that food-web structure will be central to understanding and predicting how top pelagic predators, and the ecosystems in which they are embedded, will respond to climate change.

Implementing ecosystem-based fisheries management requires indicators and models that address the impacts of fishing across entire ecological communities. However, the complexity of many ecosystems presents a challenge to analysis, especially if reliant on quantification because of the onerous task of precisely measuring or estimating numerous parameters. We present qualitative modelling as a complementary approach to quantitative methods. Qualitative modelling clarifies how community structure alone affects dynamics, here of exploited populations. We build an array of models that describe different ecosystems with different harvesting practices, and analyse them to predict responses to various perturbations. This approach demonstrates the utility of qualitative modelling as a means to identify and interpret community-level indicators for systems that are at or near equilibrium, and for those that are frequently perturbed away from equilibrium. Examining the interaction of ecological and socio-economic variables associated with commercial fisheries provides an understanding of the main feedbacks that drive and regulate exploited ecosystems. The method is particularly useful for systems where the basic relationships between variables are understood but where precise or detailed data are lacking.

In response to a petition to list Great Basin redband trout (subspecies of rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss) as threatened or endangered, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service conducted a status review in 1998. To support that review, we conducted a survey of the abundances of redband trout in each of six subbasins of the Great Basin that included the states of Oregon, California, and Nevada. We used a generalized random-tessellation stratified algorithm to select a target sample size of 35 sites/subbasin. Out of a target number of 210 sites, 185 were visited by three-person crews that surveyed stream habitat and estimated the abundance of fish populations in sample reaches with lengths that were nearly 20 times the respective channel widths. A minimal sampling intensity was based on previously encountered levels of between-site variance in estimates of redband trout abundance. The total population estimate of age-1 and older (age-1+) redband trout in the Great Basin was 971,313 fish, with a 95% co...

Ecological predictions and management strategies are sensitive to variability in model parameters as well as uncertainty in model structure. Systematic analysis of the effect of alternative model structures, however, is often beyond the resources typically available to ecologists, ecological risk practitioners, and natural resource managers. Many of these practitioners are also using Bayesian belief networks based on expert opinion to fill gaps in empirical information. The practical application of this approach can be limited by the need to populate large conditional probability tables and the complexity associated with ecological feedback cycles. In this paper, we describe a modeling approach that helps solve these problems by embedding a qualitative analysis of sign directed graphs into the probabilistic framework of a Bayesian belief network. Our approach incorporates the effects of feedback on the model's response to a sustained change in one or more of its parameters, provides an efficient means to explore the effect of alternative model structures, mitigates the cognitive bias in expert opinion, and is amenable to stakeholder input. We demonstrate our approach by examining two published case studies: a host-parasitoid community centered on a nonnative, agricultural pest of citrus cultivars and the response of an experimental lake mesocosm to nutrient input. Observations drawn from these case studies are used to diagnose alternative model structures and to predict the system's response following management intervention.

Ecosystem models are becoming increasingly important as pressure from fisheries intensifies and ecosystem-based fisheries management becomes more widely used. Trophic webs often form the basis of ecosystem models and ecosystem-specific dietary information is crucial for optimal model performance. This is particularly the case if model predictions are used in management decisions. The Tasmanian live fish fishery for banded morwong was used as a case study to investigate the importance of trophic information, model simplification and aggregation error on ecosystem model results. Dietary analysis of 6 commonly captured reef fish was undertaken. Significant trophic overlap was found between blue throat wrasse Notolabrus tetricus and purple wrasse N. fucicola, and banded morwong Cheilodactylus spectabilis and bastard trumpeter Latridopsis forsteri. Marblefish Aplodactylus arctidens and long-snouted boarfish Pentaceropsis recurvirostris had significantly different diets from other species studied. Using this information, a detailed qualitative model was produced and then simplified through the aggregation of variables. Variables were aggregated using 3 methods: Euclidean distance, Bray-Curtis similarity, and regular equivalence for inclusion in 3 simplified models. Variable aggregation is undertaken in many studies and may create aggregation error. Each aggregation method produced a different proportion of incorrect model predictions as a result of aggregation error. The model simplified using regular equivalence produced the least aggregation error and a web structure aligned with the dietary analysis. More widespread use of these methods in fisheries management should be considered.

The recently declared Australian Commonwealth Marine Reserve (CMR) Network covers a total of 3.1 million km2 of continental shelf, slope, and abyssal habitat. Managing and conserving the biodiversity values within this network requires knowledge of the physical and biological assets that lie within its boundaries. Unfortunately very little is known about the habitats and biological assemblages of the continental shelf within the network, where diversity is richest and anthropogenic pressures are greatest. Effective management of the CMR estate into the future requires this knowledge gap to be filled efficiently and quantitatively. The challenge is particularly great for the shelf as multibeam echosounder (MBES) mapping, a key tool for identifying and quantifying habitat distribution, is time consuming in shallow depths, so full coverage mapping of the CMR shelf assets is unrealistic in the medium-term. Here we report on the results of a study undertaken in the Flinders Commonwealth Marine Reserve (southeast Australia) designed to test the benefits of two approaches to characterising shelf habitats: (i) MBES mapping of a continuous (~30 km2) area selected on the basis of its potential to include a range of seabed habitats that are potentially representative of the wider area, versus; (ii) a novel approach that uses targeted mapping of a greater number of smaller, but spatially balanced, locations using a Generalized Random Tessellation Stratified sample design. We present the first quantitative estimates of habitat type and sessile biological communities on the shelf of the Flinders reserve, the former based on three MBES analysis techniques. We contrast the quality of information that both survey approaches offer in combination with the three MBES analysis methods. The GRTS approach enables design based estimates of habitat types and sessile communities and also identifies potential biodiversity hotspots in the northwest corner of the reserve’s IUCN zone IV, and in locations close to shelf incising canyon heads. Design based estimates of habitats, however, vary substantially depending on the MBES analysis technique, highlighting the challenging nature of the reserve’s low profile reefs, and improvements that are needed when acquiring MBES data for small GRTS locations. We conclude that the two survey approaches are complementary and both have their place in a successful and flexible monitoring strategy; the emphasis on one method over the other should be considered on a case by case basis, taking into account the survey objectives and limitations imposed by the type of vessel, time available, size and location of the region where knowledge is required.

We compare qualitative predictions of press perturbation response from community matrix models with those of a range of numerical simulations on the same models. A technique of weighting the proportion of countervailing feedback cycles in qualitative response predictions (weighted predictions) was tested against quantitative predictions from the inverse community matrix. Specifically, in nine each of 5- and 10- variable models (of varying complexity) we randomly assigned quantitative values of interaction strength and measured correspondence with qualitative predictions in terms of response strength and sign. Based on the techniques and analyses presented herein, we report an expanded scope of inference for qualitative models of any size and complexity and conclude that system structure is of overriding importance.

The community matrix is potentially a powerful tool for community ecology. While it details direct interactions between community members, it can also be used to quantify all indirect effects that occur in a community, and thereby to make predictions regarding population response to experimental treatments or natural disturbances. These predictions are essentially hypotheses of system behavior that can be rigorously evaluated. Use of the community matrix, however, has been hindered by indeterminacy and ambiguity in response predictions. In this study, we reveal a theoretical source of the problem that arises as a consequence of community structure. Using a qualitative analysis of the community matrix, we detail the complementary feedback cycles that contribute to the response of a population following a sustained or press perturbation. Complementary feedback is the sum of all direct and indirect effects that can contribute to a response. We develop a "weighted-predictions matrix" that assigns a probability scale to sign determinacy of predicted responses. This matrix is formed by the quotient of the net sum of complementary feedback cycles and the absolute number of complementary feedback cycles. A qualitative analysis of system structure provides a theoretical benchmark for under- standing a spectrum of behavior in biological systems, and for framing and prioritizing management interventions for whole communities. This advance clarifies much of the uncertainty and ambiguity found in predicting the behavior of large and complex systems. We validate these tools by analyzing published studies of community response.

This work demonstrates the occurrence of the Fibonacci sequence in the qualitative analysis of Lotka---Volterra dynamical systems. Herein we show the golden ratio to govern reciprocal effects between neighboring variables in simple food web models. Impacts to the entire community resulting from perturbation of a population variable can be predicted from the adjoint of the community (Jacobian) matrix, which we render in qualitative terms of complementary feedback cycles. Sequences of complementary feedback cycles follow the Fibonacci sequence, and are also configured as multiples and overlapping harmonics thereof. We derive an absolute-feedback matrix that clarifies the sequence. Patterns of complementary feedback cycles are determined by community structure, which can be portrayed and understood in terms of signed digraph structure.

Lahontan cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarki henshawi occur in streams flowing north through the Trout Creek and Oregon Canyon mountains into pluvial Coyote Lake in southeast Oregon. The Coyote Lake basin has the only native population of Lahontan cutthroat trout in Oregon that is without threat of hybridization and is broadly distributed throughout a drainage. In October 1994, the number of Lahontan cutthroat trout in the basin was estimated at 39,500 fish, and fish were limited to 56 km of the potential 114 km of stream habitat available. Distribution was limited by dry channels and thermal and physical barriers to movement, which created two disconnected populations in the Willow Creek and Whitehorse Creek drainages and influenced population density, structure, and life history. Lahontan cutthroat trout in the Coyote Lake basin would be more secure if aquatic habitat were improved to allow the two populations to expand their current distributions and become more connected.

Simon J. Nicol ... et al. -- 15 páginas, 5 figuras, Climate change presents an emerging challenge to the sustainable management of tuna fisheries, and robust information is essential to ensure future sustainability. Climate and harvest affect tuna stocks, populations of non-target, dependent species and the ecosystem. To provide relevant advice we need an improved understanding of oceanic ecosystems and better data to parameterise the models that forecast the impacts of climate change. Currently ocean-wide data collection in the Pacific Ocean is primarily restricted to oceanographic data. However, the fisheries observer programs that operate in the region offer an opportunity to collect the additional information on the mid and upper trophic levels of the ecosystem that is necessary to complement this physical data, including time-series of distribution, abundance, size, composition and biological information on target and non-target species and mid trophic level organisms. These observer programs are in their infancy, with limited temporal and spatial distribution but recent international and national policy decisions have been made to expand their coverage. We identify a number of actions to initiate this monitoring including: consolidating collaborations to ensure the use of best quality data; developing consistency between sub-regional observer programmes to ensure that they meet the objectives of ecosystem monitoring; interrogating of existing time series to determine the most appropriate spatial template for monitoring; and exploring existing ecosystem models to identify suitable indicators of ecosystem status and change. The information obtained should improve capacity to develop fisheries management policies that are resilient and can be adapted to climate change, Financial support was provided by the Global Environment Facility Pacific Islands Oceanic Fisheries Management project, the 9th European Union Development Fund (SCIFISH project), the 10th European Union Development Fund (SCICOFISH project), Australian Government Overseas Aid Program (AusAID) and Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ). We would like to thank the following persons for the provision of data and information on observer programmes: Nick Vogel, Stephen Brouwer, Karl Staisch, Tim Park, Stuart Arceneaux, Lesley Jantz, Eric Forney, John D. Kelly and Kevin Busscher

Models of ecological communities are traditionally based on relationships between pairs of species, where the strengths of per capita interactions are fixed and independent of population abundance. A growing body of literature, however; describes interactions whose strength is modified by the density of either a third species or by one of the species involved in a pairwise interaction. These modified interactions have been treated as indirect effects, and the terminology addressing them is diverse and overlapping. In this paper we develop a general analytical framework based on a qualitative analysis of community structure to account for the consequence of modified interactions in complex ecological communities. Modified interactions are found to create both direct and indirect effects between species. The sign of a direct effect can change in some instances depending on the magnitude of a key variable or parameter, which leads to a threshold change in system structure and dynamics. By considering alternative structures of a community, we extend our ability to model perturbations that move the system far from a previous equilibrium. Using specific examples, we reinterpret existing results, develop hypotheses to guide experiments or management interventions, and explore the role of modified interactions and positive feedback in creating and maintaining alternative stable states. Through a qualitative analysis of community structure, system feedback is demonstrated as being key in understanding and predicting the dynamics of complex ecological communities.

Inhabitants of Lihir Island, Papua New Guinea, have traditionally relied on reef fishing and rotational farming of slash-burn forest plots for a subsistence diet. However, a new gold mine has introduced a cash economy to the island's socioeconomic system and impacted the fringing coral reef through sedimentation from the near-shore dumping of mine wastes. Studies of the Lihirian people have documented changes in population size, local customs, health, education, and land use; studies of the reef have documented impacts to fish populations in mine affected sites. Indirect effects from these impacts are complex and indecipherable when viewed only from isolated studies. Here, we use qualitative modelling to synthesize the social and biological research programs in order to understand the interaction of the human and ecological systems. Initial modelling results appear to be consistent with differences in fish and macroalgae populations in sites with and without coral degradation due to sedimentation. A greater cash flow from mine expansion is predicted to increase the human population, the intensity of the artisanal fishery, and the rate of sewage production and land clearing. Modelling results are being used to guide ongoing research projects, such as monitoring fish populations and artisanal catch and patterns and intensity of land clearing.

Models provide useful insights into conservation and resource management issues and solutions. Their use to date has highlighted conditions under which no-take marine protected areas (MPAs) may help us to achieve the goals of ecosystem-based management by reducing pressures, and where they might fail to achieve desired goals. For example, static reserve designs are unlikely to achieve desired objectives when applied to mobile species or when compromised by climate-related ecosystem restructuring and range shifts. Modelling tools allow planners to explore a range of options, such as basing MPAs on the presence of dynamic oceanic features, and to evaluate the potential future impacts of alternative interventions compared with ‘no-action’ counterfactuals, under a range of environmental and development scenarios. The modelling environment allows the analyst to test if indicators and management strategies are robust to uncertainties in how the ecosystem (and the broader human–ecosystem combination) operates, including the direct and indirect ecological effects of protection. Moreover, modelling results can be presented at multiple spatial and temporal scales, and relative to ecological, economic and social objectives. This helps to reveal potential ‘surprises', such as regime shifts, trophic cascades and bottlenecks in human responses. Using illustrative examples, this paper briefly covers the history of the use of simulation models for evaluating MPA options, and discusses their utility and limitations for informing protected area management in the marine realm.

Pollution, loss of habitat, and climate change are introducing dramatic perturbations to natural communities and affecting public health. Populations in perturbed communities can change dynamically, in both abundance and age structure. While analysis of the community matrix can predict changes in population abundance arising from a sustained or press perturbation, perturbations also have the potential to modify life expectancy, which adds yet another means to falsify experimental hypotheses and to monitor management interventions in natural systems. In some instances, an input to a community will produce no change in the abundance of a population but create a major shift in its mean age. We present an analysis of change in both abundance and life expectancy, leading to a formal quantitative assessment as well as qualitative predictions, and illustrate the usefulness of the technique through general examples relating to vector-borne disease and fisheries.

Qualitative analysis of stability in model ecosystems has previously been limited to determining whether a community matrix is sign stable or not with little analytical means to assess the impact of complexity on system stability. Systems are seen as either unconditionally or conditionally stable with little distinction and therefore much ambiguity in the likelihood of stability. First, we reexamine Hurwitz's principal theorem for stability and propose two "Hurwitz criteria" that address different aspects of instability: positive feedback and insufficient lower-level feedback. Second, we derive two qualitative metrics based on these criteria: weighted feedback (wF(n)) and weighted determinants (wDelta(n)). Third, we test the utility of these qualitative metrics through quantitative simulations in a random and evenly distributed parameter space in models of various sizes and complexities. Taken together they provide a practical means to assess the relative degree to which ambiguity has entered into calculations of stability as a result of system structure and complexity. From these metrics we identify two classes of models that may have significant relevance to system research and management. This work helps to resolve some of the impasse between theoretical and empirical discussions on the complexity and stability of natural communities.

As the number of marine protected areas (MPAs) increases globally, so does the need to assess if MPAs are meeting their management goals. Integral to this assessment is usually a long-term biological monitoring program, which can be difficult to develop for large and remote areas that have little available fine-scale habitat and biological data. This is the situation for many MPAs within the newly declared Australian Commonwealth Marine Reserve (CMR) network which covers approximately 3.1 million km2 of continental shelf, slope, and abyssal habitat, much of which is remote and difficult to access. A detailed inventory of the species, types of assemblages present and their spatial distribution within individual MPAs is required prior to developing monitoring programs to measure the impact of management strategies. Here we use a spatially-balanced survey design and non-extractive baited video observations to quantitatively document the fish assemblages within the continental shelf area (a multiple use zone, IUCN VI) of the Flinders Marine Reserve, within the Southeast marine region. We identified distinct demersal fish assemblages, quantified assemblage relationships with environmental gradients (primarily depth and habitat type), and described their spatial distribution across a variety of reef and sediment habitats. Baited videos recorded a range of species from multiple trophic levels, including species of commercial and recreational interest. The majority of species, whilst found commonly along the southern or south-eastern coasts of Australia, are endemic to Australia, highlighting the global significance of this region. Species richness was greater on habitats containing some reef and declined with increasing depth. The trophic breath of species in assemblages was also greater in shallow waters. We discuss the utility of our approach for establishing inventories when little prior knowledge is available and how such an approach may inform future monitoring efforts within the CMR network.