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Overprescribing of antibiotics for acute respiratory infections (ARIs) is common. Our objective was to develop and validate a vignette-based method to estimate clinician ARI antibiotic prescribing. We surveyed physicians (n = 78) and retail clinic clinicians (n = 109) between January and September 2013. We surveyed clinicians using a set of ARI vignettes and linked the responses to electronic health record data for all ARI visits managed by these clinicians during 2012. We then created a new measure of antibiotic prescribing, the comprehensive ARI management rate. This was defined as not prescribing antibiotics for antibiotic-inappropriate diagnoses and prescribing guideline-concordant antibiotics for antibiotic-appropriate diagnoses (and also included appropriate use of streptococcal testing for the pharyngitis vignettes). We compared the vignette-based and chart-based comprehensive ARI management at the clinician level. We then identified the combination of vignettes that best predicted comprehensive ARI management rates, using a partitioning algorithm. Responses to 3 vignettes partitioned clinicians into 4 groups with chart-based comprehensive ARI management rates of 61% (n = 121), 50% (n = 47), 31% (n = 12), and 22% (n = 7). Responses to 3 clinical vignettes can identify clinicians with relatively poor quality ARI antibiotic prescribing. Vignettes may be a mechanism to target clinicians for quality improvement efforts.

For many surgeries and high-risk medical conditions, higher volume providers provide higher quality care. The impact of volume on more common medical conditions such as acute respiratory infections (ARIs) has not been examined. Using electronic health record data for adult ambulatory ARI visits, we divided primary care physicians into ARI volume quintiles. We fitted a linear regression model of antibiotic prescribing rates across quintiles to assess for a significant difference in trend. Higher ARI volume physicians had lower quality across a number of domains, including higher antibiotic prescribing rates, higher broad-spectrum antibiotic prescribing, and lower guideline concordance. Physicians with a higher volume of cases manage ARI very differently and are more likely to prescribe antibiotics. When they prescribe an antibiotic for a diagnosis for which an antibiotic may be indicated, they are less likely to prescribe guideline-concordant antibiotics. Given that high-volume physicians account for the bulk of ARI visits, efforts targeting this group are likely to yield important population effects in improving quality.