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Most studies projecting human survivability limits to extreme heat with climate change use a 35 °C wet-bulb temperature (Tw) threshold without integrating variations in human physiology. This study applies physiological and biophysical principles for young and older adults, in sun or shade, to improve current estimates of survivability and introduce liveability (maximum safe, sustained activity) under current and future climates. Our physiology-based survival limits show a vast underestimation of risks by the 35 °C Tw model in hot-dry conditions. Updated survivability limits correspond to Tw~25.8-34.1 °C (young) and ~21.9-33.7 °C (old)-0.9-13.1 °C lower than Tw = 35 °C. For older female adults, estimates are ~7.2-13.1 °C lower than 35 °C in dry conditions. Liveability declines with sun exposure and humidity, yet most dramatically with age (2.5-3.0 METs lower for older adults). Reductions in safe activity for younger and older adults between the present and future indicate a stronger impact from aging than warming.

BackgroundAs atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise, temperature and humidity will increase further, causing potentially dire increases in human heat stress. On physiological and biophysical grounds, exposure to higher levels of humidity should worsen heat stress by decreasing sweat evaporation. However, population-scale epidemiological studies of heat exposure and response often do not detect associations between high levels of humidity and heat-related mortality or morbidity. These divergent, disciplinary views regarding the role of humidity in heat-related health risks limit confidence in selecting which interventions are effective in reducing health impacts and in projecting future heat-related health risks.ObjectivesVia our multidisciplinary perspective we seek to a) reconcile the competing realities concerning the role of humidity in heat-related health impacts and b) help ensure robust projections of heat-related health risks with climate change. These objectives are critical pathways to identify and communicate effective approaches to cope with present and future heat challenges.DiscussionWe hypothesize six key reasons epidemiological studies have found little impact of humidity on heat-health outcomes: a) At high temperatures, there may be limited influence of humidity on the health conditions that cause most heat-related deaths (i.e., cardiovascular collapse); b) epidemiological data sets have limited spatial extent, a bias toward extratropical (i.e., cooler and less humid), high-income nations, and tend to exist in places where temporal variations in temperature and humidity are positively correlated; c) analyses focus on older, vulnerable populations with sweating, and thus evaporative, impairments that may be further aggravated by dehydration; d) extremely high levels of temperature and humidity (seldom seen in the historical record) are necessary for humidity to substantially impact heat strain of sedentary individuals; e) relationships between temperature and humidity are improperly considered when interpreting epidemiological model results; and f) sub-daily meteorological phenomena, such as rain, occur at high temperatures and humidity, and may bias epidemiological studies based on daily data. Future research must robustly test these hypotheses to advance methods for more accurate incorporation of humidity in estimating heat-related health outcomes under present and projected future climates. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11807.

Heatwaves are one of the most dangerous natural hazards causing more than 166,000 deaths from 1998–2017. Their frequency is increasing, and they are becoming more intense. Electric fans are an efficient, and sustainable solution to cool people. They are, for most applications, the cheapest cooling technology available. However, many national and international health guidelines actively advise people not to use them when indoor air temperatures exceed the skin temperature, approximately 35°C. We used a human energy balance model, to verify the validity of those recommendations and to determine under which environmental (air temperature, relative humidity, air speed and mean radiant temperature) and personal (metabolic rate, clothing) conditions the use of fans would be beneficial. We found that current guidelines are too restrictive. Electric fans can be used safely even if the indoor dry-bulb temperature exceeds 35°C since they significantly increase the amount of sweat that evaporates from the skin. The use of elevated air speeds (0.8m/s) increases the critical operative temperature at which heat strain is expected to occur by an average of 1.4°C for relative humidity values above 22%. We also analysed the most extreme weather events from 1990 to 2014 recorded in the 115 most populous cities worldwide, and we determined that in 103 of them the use of fans would have been beneficial. We developed a free, open-source, and easy-to-use online tool to help researchers, building practitioners, and policymakers better understand under which conditions electric fans can be safely used to cool people.

In a field study conducted in office settings in Sydney, Australia, background survey and right-here-right-now thermal comfort questionnaires were collected from a sample of office workers. Indoor environmental observations including air temperature, mean radiant temperature, air velocity and relative humidity, were also recorded and matched with each questionnaire according to time and location. During exploratory data analyses we observed that female subjects aged over 40 and 50 or younger registered significantly warmer sensations than other subjects, male and female, from other age ranges. To further explore this phenomenon, the sample of building occupants were classified into two groups – women of perimenopausal age (over 40 and 50 or younger) while the remaining respondents served as a reference group for comparison. Women in the perimenopausal age range demonstrated an increased perception of warmth (p

Extreme heat adversely affects human health, productivity, and well-being, with more frequent and intense heatwaves projected to increase exposures. However, current risk projections oversimplify critical inter-individual factors of human thermoregulation, resulting in unreliable and unrealistic estimates of future adverse health outcomes.

This study aimed to investigate seasonal heat acclimatization in active adolescents following summer. Fifteen (5 females) active adolescents (14.6 ± 1.0 y) completed a 45-min heat response test (HRT) walking at 60% $\dot {\rm V}$ V ˙ O2peak in 40°C and 30% relative humidity before and after summer (i.e. November 2022 and March 2023). During the HRT, gastro-intestinal temperature (Tgi), skin temperature (Tsk), heart rate, local sweat rate (LSR) and whole-body sweat loss (WBSL) were recorded. Carbon monoxide rebreathing and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry scans determined resting hematological measures and body composition. Participants completed physical activity (PA) diaries and wore an accelerometer for two one-week periods (pre- and post-summer). Daytime wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) was calculated for each summer day. Data are presented as posterior mean and 90% credible intervals. Participants reported 7 ± 4 h·wk−1 of outdoor PA, and daytime WBGT was 21.2 ± 4.6°C. Following summer, resting Tgi and heart rate were reduced by 0.2°C [−0.3, −0.1; probability of direction = 99%] and 7 beats·min−1 [−10, −3; 100%], respectively. During the HRT, there was an earlier onset of sweating (−0.2°C [−0.3, −0.0; 98%]), an attenuated rise of Tgi (0.2°C [−0.5, 0.0; 92%]) and mean Tsk changed by −0.2°C [−0.5, 0.1; 86%]. There was minimal evidence for heat adaptations in LSR or WBSL, hematological parameters or perceptual measures. This is the first study to demonstrate seasonal heat adaptations in active adolescents. Reductions in resting Tgi and exercising Tsk and a lower Tgi at the onset of sweating were associated with a smaller rise in Tgi during the HRT following summer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this study was to investigate which climate/heat indices perform best in predicting heat-induced loss of physical work capacity (PWCloss). Integrating data from earlier studies, data from 982 exposures (75 conditions) exercising at a fixed cardiovascular load of 130 beats·min−1, in varying temperatures (15–50°C), humidities (20–80%), solar radiation (0–800 W·m−2), wind (0.2–3.5 m·s−1), and two clothing levels, were used to model the predictive power of ambient temperature, universal thermal climate index (UTCI), wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT), modified physiologically equivalent temperature (mPET), heat index, apparent temperature (AT), and wet bulb temperature (Twb) for the calculation of PWCloss, skin temperature (Tskin) and core-to-skin temperature gradient, and thermal perception (thermal sensation vote, TSV) in the heat. R2, RMSE, and Akaike information criterion were used indicating model performance. Indices not including wind/radiation in their calculation (Ta, heat index, AT, and Twb) struggled to provide consistent predictions across variables. For PWCloss and TSV, UTCI and WBGT had the highest predictive power. For Tskin, and core-to-skin temperature gradient, the physiological models UTCI and mPET worked best in seminude conditions, but clothed, AT, WBGT, and UTCI worked best. For all index predictions, Ta, vapor pressure, and Twb were shown to be the worst heat strain predictors. Although UTCI and WBGT had similar model performance using the full dataset, WBGT did not work appropriately in windy, hot-dry, conditions where WBGT predicted lower strain due to wind, whereas the empirical data, UTCI and mPET indicated that wind in fact increased the overall level of thermal strain. The findings of the current study highlight the advantages of using a physiological model-based index like UTCI when evaluating heat stress in dynamic thermal environments. NEW & NOTEWORTHY: There is an urgent need to determine the optimal heat stress metric when forecasting the impact of heat stress on human performance, physiological stress, and perception. We analyzed a wealth of laboratory data, simulating heart rate (HR)-paced work with wide variations in air temperature, humidity, wind speed, solar radiation, and clothing. We conclude that the universal thermal climate index (UTCI) [followed by wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT)] is the optimal heat index to reliably predict reductions in performance, and elevations in physiological and perceptual stress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our aim was to develop and validate separate whole body sweat rate prediction equations for moderate to high-intensity outdoor cycling and running, using simple measured or estimated activity and environmental inputs. Across two collection sites in Australia, 182 outdoor running trials and 158 outdoor cycling trials were completed at a wet-bulb globe temperature ranging from ∼15°C to ∼29°C, with ∼60-min whole body sweat rates measured in each trial. Data were randomly separated into model development (running: 120; cycling: 100 trials) and validation groups (running: 62; cycling: 58 trials), enabling proprietary prediction models to be developed and then validated. Running and cycling models were also developed and tested when locally measured environmental conditions were substituted with participants' subjective ratings for black globe temperature, wind speed, and humidity. The mean absolute error for predicted sweating rate was 0.03 and 0.02 L·h−1 for running and cycling models, respectively. The 95% confidence intervals for running (+0.44 and −0.38 L·h−1) and cycling (+0.45 and −0.42 L·h−1) were within acceptable limits for an equivalent change in total body mass over 3 h of ±2%. The individual variance in observed sweating described by the predictive models was 77% and 60% for running and cycling, respectively. Substituting measured environmental variables with subjective assessments of climatic characteristics reduced the variation in observed sweating described by the running model by up to ∼25%, but only by ∼2% for the cycling model. These prediction models are publicly accessible (https://sweatratecalculator.com) and can guide individualized hydration management in advance of outdoor running and cycling. NEW & NOTEWORTHY: We report the development and validation of new proprietary whole body sweat rate prediction models for outdoor running and outdoor cycling using simple activity and environmental inputs. Separate sweat rate models were also developed and tested for situations where all four environmental parameters are not available, and some must be subsequently estimated by the user via a simple rating scale. All models are freely accessible through an online calculator: https://sweatratecalculator.com. These models, via the online calculator, will enable individualized hydration management for training or recreational cycling or running in an outdoor environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this study was to investigate the influence of biological sex, independent of differences in aerobic fitness and body fatness, on the change in gastrointestinal temperature (ΔTgi) and whole body sweat rate (WBSR) of children exercising under uncompensable heat stress. Seventeen boys (means ± SD; 13.7 ± 1.3 yr) and 18 girls (13.7 ± 1.4 yr) walked for 45 min at a fixed rate of metabolic heat production per kg body mass (8 W·kg−1) in 40°C and 30% relative humidity. Sex and peak oxygen consumption (V̇ o 2peak) were entered into a Bayesian hierarchical general additive model (HGAM) for Tgi. Sex, V̇ o 2peak, and the evaporative requirement for heat balance (Ereq) were entered into a Bayesian hierarchical linear regression for WBSR. For 26 (12 M and 14 F) of the 35 children with measured body composition, body fat percentage was entered in a separate HGAM and hierarchical linear regression for Tgi and WBSR, respectively. Conditional on sex-specific mean V̇ o 2peak, ΔTgi was 1.00°C [90% credible intervals (Crl): 0.84, 1.16] for boys and 1.17°C [1.01, 1.33] for girls, with a difference of 0.17°C [−0.39, 0.06]. When sex differences in V̇ o 2peak were accounted for, the difference in ΔTgi between boys and girls was 0.01°C [−0.25, 0.22]. The difference in WBSR between boys and girls was 0.03 L·h−1 [−0.02, 0.07], when isolated from differences in Ereq. The difference in ΔTgi between boys and girls was −0.10°C [−0.38, 0.17] when sex differences in body fat (%) were accounted for. Biological sex did not independently influence the ΔTgi and WBSR of children exercising under uncompensable heat stress. NEW & NOTEWORTHY: Limited studies have investigated the thermoregulatory responses of boys and girls exercising under uncompensable heat stress. Boys and girls often differ in physiological characteristics other than biological sex, such as aerobic fitness and body fat percentage, which may confound interpretations. We investigated the influence of biological sex on exercise thermoregulation in children, independent of differences in aerobic fitness and body fatness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: The MJA–Lancet Countdown on health and climate change in Australia was established in 2017 and produced its first national assessment in 2018 and annual updates in 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022. It examines five broad domains: health hazards, exposures and impacts; adaptation, planning and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co‐benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. In this, the sixth report of the MJA–Lancet Countdown, we track progress on an extensive suite of indicators across these five domains, accessing and presenting the latest data and further refining and developing our analyses.Our results highlight the health and economic costs of inaction on health and climate change. A series of major flood events across the four eastern states of Australia in 2022 was the main contributor to insured losses from climate‐related catastrophes of $7.168 billion — the highest amount on record. The floods also directly caused 23 deaths and resulted in the displacement of tens of thousands of people.High red meat and processed meat consumption and insufficient consumption of fruit and vegetables accounted for about half of the 87 166 diet‐related deaths in Australia in 2021. Correction of this imbalance would both save lives and reduce the heavy carbon footprint associated with meat production.We find signs of progress on health and climate change. Importantly, the Australian Government released Australia's first National Health and Climate Strategy, and the Government of Western Australia is preparing a Health Sector Adaptation Plan. We also find increasing action on, and engagement with, health and climate change at a community level, with the number of electric vehicle sales almost doubling in 2022 compared with 2021, and with a 65% increase in coverage of health and climate change in the media in 2022 compared with 2021.Overall, the urgency of substantial enhancements in Australia's mitigation and adaptation responses to the enormous health and climate change challenge cannot be overstated. Australia's energy system, and its health care sector, currently emit an unreasonable and unjust proportion of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. As the Lancet Countdown enters its second and most critical phase in the leadup to 2030, the depth and breadth of our assessment of health and climate change will be augmented to increasingly examine Australia in its regional context, and to better measure and track key issues in Australia such as mental health and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander health and wellbeing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: To limit exposures to occupational heat stress, leading occupational health and safety organizations recommend work–rest regimens to prevent core temperature from exceeding 38°C or increasing by ≥1°C. This scoping review aims to map existing knowledge of the effects of work–rest regimens in hot environments and to propose recommendations for future research based on identified gaps. Methods: We performed a search of 10 databases to retrieve studies focused on work–rest regimens under hot conditions. Results: Forty‐nine articles were included, of which 35 were experimental studies. Most studies were conducted in laboratory settings, in North America (71%), on healthy young adults, with 94% of the 642 participants being males. Most studies (66%) employed a protocol duration ≤240 min (222 ± 162 min, range: 37–660) and the time‐weighted average wet‐bulb globe temperature was 27 ± 4°C (range: 18–34). The work–rest regimens implemented were those proposed by the American Conference of Governmental and Industrial Hygiene (20%), National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health (11%), or the Australian Army (3%). The remaining studies (66%) did not mention how the work–rest regimens were derived. Most studies (89%) focused on physical tasks only. Most studies (94%) reported core temperature, whereas only 22% reported physical and/or mental performance outcomes, respectively. Of the 35 experimental studies included, 77% indicated that core temperature exceeded 38°C. Conclusions: Although work–rest regimens are widely used, few studies have investigated their physiological effectiveness. These studies were mainly short in duration, involved mostly healthy young males, and rarely considered the effect of work–rest regimens beyond heat strain during physical exertion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The six cylinder thermoregulatory model (SCTM) has been validated thoroughly for resting humans. This type of modeling is helpful to predict and develop guidance for safe performance of work and recreational activities. In the context of a warming global climate, updating the accuracy of the model for intense exercise in warm environments will help a wide range of individuals in athletic, recreational, and military settings. Three sets of previously collected data were used to determine SCTM accuracy. Dataset 1: two groups [large (LG) 91.5 kg and small (SM) 67.7 kg] of individuals performed 60 min of semirecumbent cycling in temperate conditions (25.1°C) at metabolic rates of 570–700 W. Dataset 2: two LG (100 kg) and SM (65.8 kg) groups performed 60 min of semirecumbent cycling in warm/hot environmental conditions (36.2°C) at metabolic rates of 590–680 W. Dataset 3: seven volunteers completed 8-km track trials (∼30 min) in cool (17°C) and warm (30°C) environments. The volunteers' metabolic rates were estimated to be 1,268 W and 1,166 W, respectively. For all datasets, SCTM-predicted core temperatures were found to be similar to the observed core temperatures. The root mean square deviations (RMSDs) ranged from 0.06 to 0.46°C with an average of 0.2°C deviation, which is less than the acceptance threshold of 0.5°C. Thus, the present validation shows that SCTM predicts core temperatures with acceptable accuracy during intense exercise in warm environments and successfully captures core temperature differences between large and small individuals. NEW & NOTEWORTHY: The SCTM has been validated thoroughly for resting humans in warm and cold environments and during water immersion. The present study further demonstrated that SCTM predicts core temperatures with acceptable accuracy during intense exercise up to 1,300 W in temperate and warm environments and captures core temperature differences between large and small individuals. SCTM is potentially useful to develop guidance for safe operation in athletic, military, and occupational settings during exposure to warm or hot environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]