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Understanding the impact of radiative forcing on climate variability and change in the Tropical Atlantic is crucial for different socio-economic sectors, given their substantial impacts in both local and remote regions. Standard transient historical and scenario simulations do not allow to properly evaluate the effect of a changing climate on the variability. To overcome this limitation and as an alternative to a large ensemble, two 250-year-long atmosphere-ocean coupled simulations with EC-EARTH 3.3 (CMIP6 version) have been performed with fixed radiative forcing at year 2000 and 2050, representative of present and future climate conditions respectively. The changes in the leading modes of Tropical Atlantic variability (TAV), including the Atlantic Niño/Niña and the Subtropical North Atlantic pattern, have been assessed in three target seasons: spring (MAM), summer (JJ) and early winter (ND). While the change in sea surface temperature (SST) climatology shows homogeneous warming, the difference between future and present SST variability exhibits a distinct behaviour, consistent along the seasonal cycle, with a decrease in the equatorial region and an increase at subtropical latitudes. This study explores the processes associated with the suppressed/enhanced TAV, with particular focus on the less-explored early-winter season. In agreement with previous studies, the Atantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) shows a weakening in strength, but the results also show an increase in variability. The AMOC-related deepening of the equatorial thermocline and the flattening linked to weakened trade winds are consistent with the suppressed SST variability of the Atlantic Niño/Niña. On the other hand, the enhanced SST variability at subtropical latitudes is mainly associated with an increase in turbulent heat flux variability, with a minor contribution of mixed layer depth variability. The former is dominated by the latent heat flux, whose key component appears to be the specific humidity linked to an increase in precipitation variability.

The late-winter signal associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over the European continent is unsettled. Two main anomalous patterns of sea-level pressure (SLP) can be identified: a “wave-like” pattern with two opposite-signed anomalies over Europe, and a pattern showing a single anomaly (“semi-isolated”). In this work, potential paths of the tropospheric ENSO teleconnection to Europe and their role in favoring a more wave-like or semi-isolated pattern are explored. Outputs from historical runs of two versions of the MPI-ESM coupled model, which simulate these two types of patterns, are examined. A novel ray-tracing approach that accounts for zonal asymmetries in the background flow is used to test potential propagation paths in these simulations and in observations; three source regions are considered: the tropical Pacific, the North America/North Atlantic, and the tropical Atlantic. The semi-isolated pattern is suggested to be related to the well-known Rossby wave train emanating from the tropical Pacific, either via a split over northern North America or via reflection due to inhomogeneities in the background flow. The wave-like pattern, in turn, appears to be related to a secondary wave train emerging from the tropical Atlantic. The competition between these two pathways contributes to determining the actual surface response. B.M. and J.G.-S. were supported by the “Contratos Predoctorales para la Formación de Doctores” (BES-2016-076431) and “Ramón y Cajal” (RYC-2016-21181) programmes, respectively. Tercio Ambrizzi was supported by the National Institute of Science and Technology for Climate Change Phase 2 under CNPq Grant 465501/2014-1, 301397/2019-8; FAPESP Grants 2014/50848-9 and 2017/09659-6. This study also received funding from the Spanish ATLANTE project (PID2019-110234RB-C21). We acknowledge the World Climate research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP. Technical support at BSC (Computational Earth Sciences group) is sincerely acknowledged. We also thank the two anonymous reviewers for their valuable insights.

So far, the nature and evolution of the lower crust under central Spain have been constrained mainly on the basis of a heterogeneous suite of granulite xenoliths from the Spanish Central System (SCS). In recent years, ultramafic volcanics from the Calatrava Volcanic Field (CVF) have also provided deep-seated crustal xenoliths which have not been studied in detail. Our data, combining mineral, whole-rock and isotopic geochemistry with U–Pb–Hf isotope ratios in zircons from the CVF and SCS xenoliths, highlight the felsic composition of the lower crust under central Iberia. A number of the Calatrava xenoliths represents Variscan igneous protoliths, which are a minor population in the SCS, and were likely formed by crystallisation of intermediate and felsic melts in the lower crust during the Variscan orogeny (leucodiorite protolith age of 314 ± 3 Ma and leucogranite protolith age of 308 ± 2.5 Ma). U–Pb data of metamorphic zircons show that granulite-facies metamorphism mainly occurred from 299 to 285 Ma in both areas. These ages are slightly younger than those of granitic intrusions that could be genetically related to the granulitic residue, which points to a main role of U–Pb isotope resetting in lower crustal zircons during HT or UHT conditions. The zircon U–Pb–Hf isotopic ratios support the idea that the lower crust in central Iberia consists mainly of Ordovician–Neoproterozoic metaigneous and metasedimentary rocks associated with the Cadomian continental arc of northern Gondwana. These rocks provide evidence of mixing between juvenile magmas and an enriched crustal component, ultimately extracted from an Eburnean crust. Other more evolved components present in detrital zircons are likely related to recycling of Archean crust derived from North Africa cratonic terranes.

The impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the late-winter extra-tropical stratosphere (January–March) is assessed in a multi-model framework. Three state-of-the-art atmospheric models are run with prescribed SST anomalies representative of a strong ENSO event, with symmetric patterns for El Niño and La Niña. The well-known temperature perturbation in the lower stratosphere during El Niño is captured by two models, in which the anomalous warming at polar latitudes is accompanied by a positive geopotential height anomaly that extends over the polar cap. In the third model, which shows a lack of temperature anomalies over the pole, the anomalous anticyclone is confined over Canada and does not expand to the polar cap. This anomalous center of action emerges from the large-scale tropospheric Rossby wave train forced by ENSO, and shrinking/stretching around the polar vortex is invoked to link it to the temperature response. No disagreement across models is found in the lower stratosphere for La Niña, whose teleconnection is opposite in sign but weaker. In the middle-upper stratosphere (above 50 hPa) the geopotential height anomalies project on a wavenumber-1 (WN1) pattern for both El Niño and, more weakly, La Niña, and show a westward tilt with height up to the stratopause. It is suggested that this WN1 pattern arises from the high-latitude lower-stratospheric anomalies, and that the ENSO teleconnection to the polar stratosphere can be interpreted in terms of upward propagation of the stationary Rossby wave train and quasi-geostrophic balance, instead of wave breaking. This work was supported by the MEDSCOPE project. MEDSCOPE is part of ERA4CS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate, and funded by AEMET (ES), ANR (FR), BSC (ES), CMCC (IT), CNR (IT), IMR (BE) and Météo-France (FR), with co-funding by the European Union (Grant 690462). B.M. and J.G.-S. were supported by the “Contratos Predoctorales para la Formación de Doctores” (BES-2016-076431) and “Ramón y Cajal” (RYC-2016-21181) programmes, respectively. F.M.P. was partially supported by the Spanish DANAE (CGL2015-68342-R) and GRAVITOCAST (ERC2018-092835) projects. Technical support at BSC (Computational Earth Sciences group) is sincerely acknowledged. We also thank the two anonymous reviewers for their helpful feedback.

The performance of the European Consortium Earth-system model (EC-EARTH) in the boreal winter stratosphere is comprehensively assessed for the first time, in particular its version 3.3 that contributes to CMIP6. A 100-year long simulation with prescribed climatological boundary conditions and fixed radiative forcing, representative of present-day climate, is used to evaluate the simulation of the climatological stratospheric circulation and to identify model biases. Results show that EC-EARTH has a large issue with the vertical distribution of stratospheric temperature from the tropics to mid-latitudes, seemingly linked to radiative processes of ozone, leading to a biased warm middle-upper stratosphere. Associated with this model bias, EC-EARTH simulates a stronger polar vortex at upper-stratospheric levels while the Brewer-Dobson circulation at middle/lower levels is weaker than reanalysis. The amplitude of the climatological planetary waves is overall underestimated, but the magnitude of the background wave injection from the troposphere into the stratosphere is overestimated, related to a weaker polar vortex at lower-stratospheric levels and, thus, a less effective wave filtering. This bias in the westerly flow could have a contribution from parameterized waves. The overestimation of background wave driving is maximum in early-winter, and may explain the overestimated frequency of sudden stratospheric warmings at this time, as compared to reanalysis. The spatial distribution of wave injection climatology has revealed a distinctive role of the climatological planetary waves: while large-scale waves (wavenumbers 1–2) dominate the eddy heat flux over the North Pacific, small-scale waves (wavenumbers 3–4) are responsible for the doubled-lobe structure of the eddy heat flux over Eurasia. EC-EARTH properly simulates this climatological feature, although overestimates its amplitude over central Eurasia.

The European Consortium EC-EARTH climate model version 3.1 is used to assess the effects of a well-resolved stratosphere on the representation of El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and in particular on the simulation of extreme El Niño events, known as super El Niños. Three 100-year long experiments with fixed radiative forcing representative of present climate are compared: one with the top at 0.01hPa and 91 vertical levels (HIGH-TOP or HT), another with the top at 5hPa and 62 vertical levels (LOW-TOP or LT), and another high-top experiment but with the stratosphere nudged to the climatology of HT from 10hPa upwards (NUDG). The differences in vertical resolution between HT and LT start at around 100hPa. By comparing HT with LT we explore the influence of increased vertical resolution above the tropopause on ENSO, while by comparing HT with NUDG we evaluate the influence of stratospheric variability, with special emphasis on the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). No extreme ENSO events occur in the two simulations without QBO (LT and NUDG), while HT is able to simulate such extreme events. These super El Niños coincide with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the westerly phase of the QBO in the lower stratosphere during boreal summer and fall. Previous studies have proposed an interaction between El Niño and IOD-related sea surface temperature anomalies to explain the existence of super El Niños. Our work suggests that this interaction alone is not enough in our climate model to simulate super El Niños. We postulate that changes in the upper tropospheric circulation over the Indian Ocean-Maritime Continent during boreal summer and fall, related to the westerly phase of the QBO, establish favourable conditions for the development of El Niños, increasing the probability of having super El Niños.

The aim of this study is to comprehensively assess the boreal winter climatology of the European Consortium Earth-system model (EC-EARTH), specifically the contributing version to CMIP6, v3.3. To identify model biases, the climatological stratospheric circulation of a 100-year long simulation with prescribed climatological boundary conditions and fixed radiative forcing, representative of present-day climate, is compared to reanalysis data. An important issue is found in the vertical distribution of stratospheric temperature from the tropics to mid-latitudes in EC-EARTH, which is seemingly linked to radiative processes of ozone, leading to a biased warm middle-upper stratosphere. Consistent with this bias, the Brewer-Dobson circulation at middle/lower levels is weaker than reanalysis while the polar vortex in EC-EARTH is stronger at the upper-stratosphere. The amplitude of Planetary waves is overall underestimated, but the magnitude of the background wave injection from the troposphere into the stratosphere is overestimated in relation to a weaker polar vortex at lower-stratospheric levels and thus less effective wave filtering. The overestimation of the background wave driving is maximum in early-winter and consistent with an increase of sudden stratospheric warmings at this time, as compared to reanalysis. When the wave injection climatology is decomposed spatially, a distinctive role of the planetary waves is revealed: while large-scale waves (wavenumbers 1-2) dominate the eddy heat flux over the North Pacific, small-scale waves (wavenumbers 3-4) are responsible for the doubled-lobe structure of the eddy heat flux over Eurasia. EC-EARTH properly simulates this climatological feature, although overestimates its amplitude over central Eurasia.

The stratosphere can be a source of predictability for surface weather on timescales of several weeks to months. However, the potential predictive skill gained from stratospheric variability can be limited by biases in the representation of stratospheric processes and the coupling of the stratosphere with surface climate in forecast systems. This study provides a first systematic identification of model biases in the stratosphere across a wide range of subseasonal forecast systems. It is found that many of the forecast systems considered exhibit warm global-mean temperature biases from the lower to middle stratosphere, too strong/cold wintertime polar vortices, and too cold extratropical upper-troposphere/lower-stratosphere regions. Furthermore, tropical stratospheric anomalies associated with the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation tend to decay toward each system's climatology with lead time. In the Northern Hemisphere (NH), most systems do not capture the seasonal cycle of extreme-vortex-event probabilities, with an underestimation of sudden stratospheric warming events and an overestimation of strong vortex events in January. In the Southern Hemisphere (SH), springtime interannual variability in the polar vortex is generally underestimated, but the timing of the final breakdown of the polar vortex often happens too early in many of the prediction systems. These stratospheric biases tend to be considerably worse in systems with lower model lid heights. In both hemispheres, most systems with low-top atmospheric models also consistently underestimate the upward wave driving that affects the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex. We expect that the biases identified here will help guide model development for subseasonal-to-seasonal forecast systems and further our understanding of the role of the stratosphere in predictive skill in the troposphere., Weather and Climate Dynamics, 3 (3), ISSN:2698-4016, ISSN:2698-4008

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is known to affect the Northern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation in late-winter (January–March), but whether El Niño and La Niña lead to symmetric impacts and with the same underlying dynamics remains unclear, particularly in the North Atlantic. Three state-of-the-art atmospheric models forced by symmetric anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) patterns, mimicking strong ENSO events, are used to robustly diagnose symmetries and asymmetries in the extra-tropical ENSO response. Asymmetries arise in the sea-level pressure (SLP) response over the North Pacific and North Atlantic, as the response to La Niña tends to be weaker and shifted westward with respect to that of El Niño. The difference in amplitude can be traced back to the distinct energy available for the two ENSO phases associated with the non-linear diabatic heating response to the total SST field. The longitudinal shift is embedded into the large-scale Rossby wave train triggered from the tropical Pacific, as its anomalies in the upper troposphere show a similar westward displacement in La Niña compared to El Niño. To fully explain this shift, the response in tropical convection and the related anomalous upper-level divergence have to be considered together with the climatological vorticity gradient of the subtropical jet, i.e. diagnosing the tropical Rossby wave source. In the North Atlantic, the ENSO-forced SLP signal is a well-known dipole between middle and high latitudes, different from the North Atlantic Oscillation, whose asymmetry is not indicative of distinct mechanisms driving the teleconnection for El Niño and La Niña. This work was supported by the MEDSCOPE project. MEDSCOPE is part of ERA4CS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate, and funded by AEMET (ES), ANR (FR), BSC (ES), CMCC (IT), CNR (IT), IMR (BE) and Météo-France (FR), with co-funding by the European Union (Grant 690462). B.M. and J.G.-S. were supported by the “Contratos Predoctorales para la Formación de Doctores” (BES-2016-076431) and “Ramón y Cajal” (RYC-2016-21181) programmes, respectively. F.M.P. was partially supported by the Spanish DANAE (CGL2015-68342-R) and GRAVITOCAST (ERC2018-092835) projects. Technical support at BSC (Computational Earth Sciences group) is sincerely acknowledged. We also thank four anonymous reviewers for their valuable insights.

The South Pacific Ocean is a key driver of climate variability within the Southern Hemisphere at different time scales. Previous studies have characterized the main mode of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in that region as a dipolar pattern of SST anomalies that cover subtropical and extratropical latitudes (the South Pacific Ocean Dipole, or SPOD), which is related to precipitation and temperature anomalies over several regions throughout the Southern Hemisphere. Using that relationship and the reported low predictive skill of precipitation anomalies over the Southern Hemisphere, this work explores the predictability and prediction skill of the SPOD in near-term climate hindcasts using a set of state-of-the-art forecast systems. Results show that predictability greatly benefits from initializing the hindcasts beyond the prescribed radiative forcing, and is modulated by known modes of climate variability, namely El Nino-Southern Oscillation and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Furthermore, the models are capable of simulating the spatial pattern of the observed SPOD even without initialization, which suggests that the key dynamical processes are properly represented. However, the hindcast of the actual phase of the mode is only achieved when the forecast systems are initialized, pointing at SPOD variability to not be radiatively forced but probably internally generated. The comparison with the performance of an empirical prediction based on persistence suggests that initialization may provide skillful information for SST anomalies, outperforming damping processes, up to 2–3 years into the future.

The European Consortium EC-EARTH climate model version 3.1 is used to assess the role of a well-resolved stratosphere on stratospheric teleconnections in the Northern Hemisphere winter. Two simulations of 100 years with constant radiative forcing, one with top at 0.01 hPa (L91, High-Top) and other with top at 5 hPa (L62, Low-Top) are compared. Results show how High-Top is able to generate a realistic Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in the tropical stratosphere, and to capture its teleconnection to the extratropics. On the other hand, EC-EARTH properly simulates the leading modes of variability (EOFs) of the polar stratosphere in both High-Top and Low-Top configurations, although the El Nino-related wave-like teleconnection dominates the signal of EOF3 (wavenumber 1 at 50 hPa) in High-Top, as in reanalysis, while the tropics-unrelated Pacific/North America pattern does it in Low-Top. At subseasonal time-scale, High-Top shows larger sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) occurrence in mid-winter, which is close to the documented in observational records, while SSW occurrence peaks by late-winter in Low-Top, despite both show a similar SSW decadal frequency (i.e. around 8 events per decade). Examination of the climatological eddy heat flux shows a misrepresentation of the seasonal cycle in Low-Top, with a peak in late-winter that explains the timing of SSW increase. This peak of the eddy heat flux can be traced to the wave injection over Central Siberia in the lower stratosphere, which appears to be dominated by small-scale waves (wavenumbers 3–4). It follows that simulating realistic eddy heat flux seasonality is fundamental to obtain a realistic SSW seasonal cycle.

Prediction skill of continental climate in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitudes is generally limited throughout the year in dynamical seasonal forecast systems. Such limitations narrow the range of possible applications by different stakeholders. Improving the predictive capacity in these regions has been a challenging task. Sea ice is a central component of the Arctic climate system and a local source of climate predictability, yet its state is often not fully constrained in dynamical forecast systems. Using the EC-Earth3 climate model, we study the added value of assimilating observed Arctic sea ice concentration on the NH extratropical climate in retrospective forecasts of summer and fall, initialized every spring over 1992–2019. Predictions in the North Atlantic and Eurasia benefit from better initialization of sea ice in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic in a two-step mechanism. Initially, sea ice influences the central North Atlantic Ocean through an atmospheric bridge that develops in the first forecast weeks, subsequently leading to preserved skill in the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) throughout summer and early fall. Secondly, these long-lasting SST improvements provide better surface boundary conditions for the atmosphere and lead to more skillful predictions of circulation and surface climate in the Euro-Atlantic and Asian regions. In addition, our findings suggest that fully coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice models are likely necessary to study linkages between Arctic sea ice and midlatitudes, by better representing the interactions and feedbacks between the different components of the climate system. The data that support the findings of this study are available upon reasonable request from the authors. This work was funded by the European Union projects APPLICATE (Grant 727862), INTAROS (Grant 727890), and ESA/CMUG-CCI3. J C A N received financial support from the Spanish Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades through a Juan de la Cierva personal grant (FJCI-2017-34027). J G-S was supported by the Spanish 'Ramón y Cajal' programme (RYC-2016-21181). All the data were downloaded from their original source, converted to NetCDF in a format designed for efficient analysis and quality checked at several levels. Etienne Tourigny, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Margarida Samsó Cabré, Núria Pérez Zanón and An Chi Ho are acknowledged for their help with technical aspects. We thank the two anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments on the manuscript.

Climate predictions using coupled models in different time scales, from intraseasonal to decadal, are usually affected by initial shocks, drifts, and biases, which reduce the prediction skill. These arise from inconsistencies between different components of the coupled models and from the tendency of the model state to evolve from the prescribed initial conditions toward its own climatology over the course of the prediction. Aiming to provide tools and further insight into the mechanisms responsible for initial shocks, drifts, and biases, this paper presents a novel data set developed within the Long Range Forecast Transient Intercomparison Project, LRFTIP. This data set has been constructed by averaging hindcasts over available prediction years and ensemble members to form a hindcast climatology, that is a function of spatial variables and lead time, and thus results in a useful tool for characterizing and assessing the evolution of errors as well as the physical mechanisms responsible for them. A discussion on such errors at the different time scales is provided along with plausible ways forward in the field of climate predictions. The authors would like to thank the two anonymous reviewers, whose suggestions helped improve and clarify several aspects of the manuscript, as well as Editor Dr. Stephen Griffies. In addition, Hai Lin and Yuhei Takaya provided helpful comments about the behavior of the ECCC-S2S and JMA-S2S models, respectively. The assistance of Marina Trubina in constructing S2S hindcast climatologies for the LRFTIP data set is also kindly acknowledged.

Using the complete ERA-Interim reanalysis and three state-of-the-art models, this study explores how El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can influence the frequency and seasonal cycle of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) by modulating the background upward wave propagation. Reanalysis data shows that in the last four decades, winters with SSWs were significantly more common than inactive winters, particularly under La Niña (LN) conditions but not during El Niño (EN), regardless of the ENSO/SSW definitions considered herein. In agreement with previous studies, our models tend to simulate a linear ENSO-SSW relationship, with more SSWs for EN, that show a peak of occurrence around January — as occurs in reanalysis —, and less SSWs for LN when compared to neutral conditions. Independently of ENSO, the main tropospheric precursor of SSWs appears to be an anomalous wave-like pattern over Eurasia, but it is dominated by wavenumber 1 (WN1) for EN and shows an enhanced wavenumber 2 (WN2) for LN. The differences in this Eurasian wave pattern, which is largely internally generated (ENSO-unforced), emerge from the distinct configuration of the background, stationary wave pattern induced by ENSO, favouring a relative stronger WN1 (WN2) component during EN (LN). Our results suggest that the ENSO-forced signal relies on preconditioning the seasonal-mean polar vortex, becoming weaker and displaced (stronger and more stable) for EN (LN), while ENSO-unforced wave activity represents the ultimate trigger of SSWs. This supports the view that ENSO and SSWs are different sources of variability of the winter atmospheric circulation and may reconcile previous findings in this context.

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) represents the major driver of interannual climate variability at global scale. Observational and model-based studies have fostered a long-standing debate on the shape and intensity of the ENSO influence over the Euro-Mediterranean sector. Indeed, the detection of this signal is strongly affected by the large internal variability that characterizes the atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic-European (NAE) region. This study explores if and how the low-frequency variability of North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) may impact the El Niño-NAE teleconnection in late winter, which consists of a dipolar pattern between middle and high latitudes. A set of idealized atmosphere-only experiments, prescribing different phases of the anomalous SST linked to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) superimposed onto an El Niño-like forcing in the tropical Pacific, has been performed in a multi-model framework, in order to assess the potential modulation of the positive ENSO signal. The modelling results suggest, in agreement with observational estimates, that the PDO negative phase (PDO-) may enhance the amplitude of the El Niño-NAE teleconnection, while the dynamics involved appear to be unaltered. On the other hand, the modulating role of the PDO positive phase (PDO+) is not reliable across models. This finding is consistent with the atmospheric response to the PDO itself, which is robust and statistically significant only for PDO-. Its modulation seems to rely on the enhanced meridional SST gradient and the related turbulent heat-flux released along the Kuroshio-Oyashio extension. PDO- weakens the North Pacific jet, whereby favoring more poleward propagation of wave activity, strengthening the El Niño-forced Rossby wave-train.These results imply that there might be conditional predictability for the interannual Euro-Mediterranean climate variability depending on the background state.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is known to affect the Northern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation in late-winter (January–March), but whether El Niño and La Niña lead to symmetric impacts and with the same underlying dynamics remains unclear, particularly in the North Atlantic. Three state-of-the-art atmospheric models forced by symmetric anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) patterns, mimicking strong ENSO events, are used to robustly diagnose symmetries and asymmetries in the extra-tropical ENSO response. Asymmetries arise in the sea-level pressure (SLP) response over the North Pacific and North Atlantic, as the response to La Niña tends to be weaker and shifted westward with respect to that of El Niño. The difference in amplitude can be traced back to the distinct energy available for the two ENSO phases associated with the non-linear diabatic heating response to the total SST field. The longitudinal shift is embedded into the large-scale Rossby wave train triggered from the tropical Pacific, as its anomalies in the upper troposphere show a similar westward displacement in La Niña compared to El Niño. To fully explain this shift, the response in tropical convection and the related anomalous upper-level divergence have to be considered together with the climatological vorticity gradient of the subtropical jet, i.e. diagnosing the tropical Rossby wave source. In the North Atlantic, the ENSO-forced SLP signal is a well-known dipole between middle and high latitudes, different from the North Atlantic Oscillation, whose asymmetry is not indicative of distinct mechanisms driving the teleconnection for El Niño and La Niña.The multi-model assessment, with 50 members for each experiment, contributes to the ERA4CS-funded MEDSCOPE project and includes: EC-EARTH/IFS (L91, 0.01hPa), CNRM/ARPEGE (L91, 0.01hPa), CMCC/CAM (L46, 0.3hPa).

The impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the late-winter extra-tropical stratosphere (January-March) is assessed in a multi-model framework. Three state-of-the-art atmospheric models are run with prescribed SST anomalies representative of a strong ENSO event, with symmetric patterns for El Niño and La Niña. The well-known temperature perturbation in the lower stratosphere during El Niño is captured by two models, in which the anomalous warming at polar latitudes is accompanied by a positive geopotential height anomaly that extends over the polar cap. In the third model, which shows a lack of temperature anomalies over the pole, the anomalous anticyclone is confined over Canada and does not expand to the polar cap. This anomalous center of action emerges from the large-scale tropospheric Rossby wave train forced by ENSO, and conservation of potential vorticity around the polar vortex is invoked to link it to the temperature response. No disagreement across models is found in the lower stratosphere for La Niña, whose teleconnection is opposite in sign but weaker. In the middle-upper stratosphere (above 50 hPa) the geopotential height anomalies project on a wavenumber-1 (WN1) pattern for both El Niño and, more weakly, La Niña, and show a westward tilt with height up to the stratopause. It is suggested that this WN1 pattern arises from the high-latitude lower-stratospheric anomalies, and that the ENSO teleconnection to the polar stratosphere can be interpreted in terms of upward propagation of the stationary Rossby wave train and quasi-geostrophic balance, instead of wave breaking. The multi-model assessment, with 50 members for each experiment, contributes to the ERA4CS-funded MEDSCOPE project and includes: EC-EARTH/IFS (L91, 0.01hPa), CNRM/ARPEGE (L91, 0.01hPa), CMCC/CAM (L46, 0.3hPa).

The accelerated warming linked to climate change has become a topic of great interest due to its projected impact on ecosystems. In this work, we assess the causes and impacts of the anthropogenic radiative forcing on the North Atlantic-European atmospheric circulation in boreal winter (DJF). To isolate the response to radiative forcing, we have used two approaches, whose simulations follow the historical/scenario concentrations from CMIP6. The first approach consists of three 240-year simulations with the European Consortium – Earth System model version 3.3 (EC-EARTH v3.3) keeping fixed the radiative forcing at 1950, characterizing the Past climate, at 2000, representative of Present-day conditions, and at 2050, projecting the near-Future climate. The second approach makes use of the Large Ensemble (i.e. 24 members) of transient simulations performed with the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace Coupled Model version 6 (IPSL-CM6), where three 10-year periods have been considered, namely 1949-1959, 1999-2009, and 2049-2059, assuming that the radiative forcing remains relatively constant in each of them. Results show that both approaches yield a consistent forced response, and that it scales linearly with radiative forcing, increasing in amplitude from Present-minus-Past to Future-minus-Present. At low latitudes, in the tropical Atlantic, the forced atmospheric response is characterized by a Gill-type baroclinic structure, where the anomalous anticyclonic circulation at upper levels reinforces the westerly wind at the equatorward flank of the North Atlantic jet. At high latitudes, the forced response is reminiscent of the ‘Arctic Amplification’ linked to sea-ice reduction, and the thermally-driven baroclinic structure can be seen over the Labrador Sea-Hudson Bay region. At mid-latitudes, the forced response shows a barotropic pattern, with a cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation in the North Atlantic (Euro-Mediterranean) sector, pointing out a role for non-radiative, eddy-related effects.

As a result of the recent progress in the performance of seasonal prediction systems, forecasts of the mid-latitude weather at seasonal time scales are becoming increasingly important for societal decision making, as in risk estimate and management of meteorological extreme events. The predictability of the Northern-Hemisphere winter troposphere, especially in the Euro-Atlantic region, stems from the representation of a number of sources of predictability, notably El Nino Southern Oscillation, the stratospheric polar vortex, Arctic sea-ice extent, Eurasian snow cover. Among these, the stratospheric polar vortex is known to play a paramount role in seasonal forecasts of the winter tropospheric flow.Here, we investigate the performance in the stratosphere of five seasonal prediction systems taking part in the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), with a focus on the seasonal forecast skill and variability, and on the assessment of stratospheric processes. We show that dynamical forecasts of the stratosphere initialised at the beginning of November are considerably more skilful than empirical forecasts based on observed October or November anomalies. Advances in the representation of stratospheric seasonal variability and extremes, i.e. sudden stratospheric warming frequency, are identified with respect to previous generations of climate models running roughly a decade ago. Such results display, however, a large model dependence. Finally, we stress the importance of the relation between the stratospheric wave activity and the stratospheric polar vortex (i.e. the wave—mean-flow interaction), applied both to the variability and to the predictability of the stratospheric mean flow. Indeed, forecasts of the winter stratospheric polar vortex are closely connected to the prediction of November-to-February stratospheric wave activity, in particular in the Eurasian sector.

Under the influence of global warming, heatwaves are becoming a major threat in many parts of the world, affecting human health and mortality, food security, forest fires, biodiversity, energy consumption, as well as the production and transportation networks. Seasonal forecasting is a promising tool to help mitigate these impacts on society. Previous studies have highlighted some predictive capacity of seasonal forecast systems for specific strong heatwaves such as those of 2003 and 2010. To our knowledge, this study is thus the first of its kind to systematically assess the prediction skill of heatwaves over Europe in a state-of-the-art seasonal forecast system. One major prerequisite to do so is to appropriately define heatwaves. Existing heatwave indices, built to measure heatwave duration and severity, are often designed for specific impacts and thus have limited robustness for an analysis of heatwave variability. In this study, we investigate the seasonal prediction skill of European summer heatwaves in the ECMWF System 5 operational forecast system by means of several dedicated metrics, as well as its added-value compared to a simple statistical model based on the linear trend. We are able to show, for the first time, that seasonal forecasts initialized in early May can provide potentially useful information of summer heatwave propensity, which is the tendency of a season to be predisposed to the occurrence of heatwaves. This work is a contribution to the HyMeX program through the project ERA4CS-MEDSCOPE, co-funded by the Horizon 2020 Framework Program of the European Union (Grant agreement 690462). Chloe Prodhomme and Javier García-Serrano were supported by the Spanish Juan de la Cierva (IJCI-2016-30802) and Ramon y Cajal (RYC-2016-21181) programs, respectively. Rachel H. White received funding from the European Unions Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Grant Agreement 797961.

It has long been thought that reducing mean-state biases would lead to improvements in variability. However, so far, there is no confirmation of a relation between model mean biases and variability. While most coupled models exhibit substantial sea surface temperature (SST) biases in the Tropical Atlantic, they are still able to reproduce reasonable SST variability in the basin. We investigate the relationship between the first- and second-order moments of the SST distribution in the equatorial Atlantic using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 simulations. Results suggest that the ability of the coupled models to properly reproduce the interannual variability is linked to their ability to simulate a realistic seasonal cycle evolution, that is, a realistic cold tongue development and a realistic Bjerknes feedback during the beginning of summer, rather than to their ability to represent the summer SST climatology.

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) represents the major driver of interannual climate variability at global scale. Observational and model-based studies have fostered a long-standing debate on the shape and intensity of the ENSO influence over the Euro-Mediterranean sector. Indeed, the detection of this signal is strongly affected by the large internal variability that characterizes the atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic–European (NAE) region. This study explores if and how the low-frequency variability of North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) may impact the El Niño-NAE teleconnection in late winter, which consists of a dipolar pattern between middle and high latitudes. A set of idealized atmosphere-only experiments, prescribing different phases of the anomalous SST linked to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) superimposed onto an El Niño-like forcing in the tropical Pacific, has been performed in a multi-model framework, in order to assess the potential modulation of the positive ENSO signal. The modelling results suggest, in agreement with observational estimates, that the PDO negative phase (PDO−) may enhance the amplitude of the El Niño-NAE teleconnection, while the dynamics involved appear to be unaltered. On the other hand, the modulating role of the PDO positive phase (PDO+) is not reliable across models. This finding is consistent with the atmospheric response to the PDO itself, which is robust and statistically significant only for PDO−. Its modulation seems to rely on the enhanced meridional SST gradient and the related turbulent heat-flux released along the Kuroshio–Oyashio extension. PDO− weakens the North Pacific jet, whereby favoring more poleward propagation of wave activity, strengthening the El Niño-forced Rossby wave-train. These results imply that there might be conditional predictability for the interannual Euro-Mediterranean climate variability depending on the background state. This work has been performed in the framework of the MEDSCOPE (MEDiterranean Services Chain based on climate PrEdictions) ERA4CS project (grant agreement no. 690462) funded by the European Union. J.G.-S. was supported by the “Ramón y Cajal” programme (RYC-2016-21181). F.M.P. was partially supported by the Spanish DANAE (CGL2015-68342-R) and GRAVITOCAST (ERC2018-092835) projects. We greatly thank the two anonymous reviewers for the insightful and constructive comments and suggestions.

A dominant paradigm for mid-latitude air-sea interaction identifies the synoptic-scale atmospheric “noise” as the main driver for the observed ocean surface variability. While this conceptual model successfully holds over most of the mid-latitude ocean surface, its soundness over frontal zones (including western boundary currents; WBC) characterized by intense mesoscale activity, has been questioned in a number of studies suggesting a driving role for the small scale ocean dynamics (mesoscale oceanic eddies) in the modulation of air-sea interaction. In this context, climate models provide a powerful experimental device to inspect the emerging scale-dependent nature of mid-latitude air-sea interaction. This study assesses the impact of model resolution on the representation of air-sea interaction over the Gulf Stream region, in a multi-model ensemble of present-climate simulations performed using a common experimental design. Lead-lag correlation and covariance patterns between sea surface temperature (SST) and turbulent heat flux (THF) are diagnosed to identify the leading regimes of air-sea interaction in a region encompassing both the Gulf Stream system and the North Atlantic subtropical basin. Based on these statistical metrics it is found that coupled models based on “laminar” (eddy-parameterised) and eddy-permitting oceans are able to discriminate between an ocean-driven regime, dominating the region controlled by the Gulf Stream dynamics, and an atmosphere-driven regime, typical of the open ocean regions. However, the increase of model resolution leads to a better representation of SST and THF cross-covariance patterns and functional forms, and the major improvements can be largely ascribed to a refinement of the oceanic model component. The authors of this study wish to thank two reviewers for their many insightful comments. AB, PA, ES, RH, JG-S, DP, ESG, MJR, CR, JS, PV acknowledge PRIMAVERA funding received from the European Commission under Grant Agreement 641727 of the Horizon 2020 research programme. JG-S was additionally supported by the Spanish ‘Ramón y Cajal’ programme (RYC-2016-21181). The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest. The datasets used in this work are cited in this manuscript with appropriate doi’s in publicly available archives.

A multi‐model study is carried out to investigate the ability of models to predict the evolution of the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) up to 12 months in advance. All models are initialised from common reanalysis data, and forecasts run for a common set of 30 start dates over 15 years. All models have high skill in predicting the phase evolution of the QBO at 20–30 hPa, with slightly more variable results at higher and lower levels. Other aspects of the predicted QBO are of variable quality, and in some cases are consistently poor. QBO easterlies are too weak in all models at 20–50 hPa, while westerlies can be either too strong or too weak. This results in both a reduced amplitude of the QBO and a westerly bias in zonal‐mean winds, notably at 30 hPa. At 70 hPa models tend to have reduced QBO amplitude and an easterly bias. Despite these failings, a multi‐model ensemble of bias‐ and variance‐corrected forecasts can be used to give accurate and reliable QBO forecasts up to at least a year ahead. Analysis of the zonal momentum budget during the first month of the forecast shows that large‐scale forcing from Eliassen–Palm flux divergence and vertical advection are handled fairly well by the models, although vertical advection terms tend to be weaker than reanalysis estimates. Total tendencies show common errors, suggesting common failings in gravity‐wave drag treatments. Teleconnections from the QBO to Northern Hemisphere winter circulation are also examined, and do not appear to be realistic beyond the first month. Analysis of initialised forecasts is a powerful tool for diagnosing the accuracy of model processes driving the QBO.

Sea ice concentration (SIC) in the eastern Arctic and snow cover extent (SCE) over central Eurasia in late autumn have been proposed as potential predictors of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Here, maximum covariance analysis is used to further investigate the links between autumn SIC in the Barents-Kara Seas (BK) and SCE over Eurasia (EUR) with winter sea level pressure (SLP) in the North Atlantic-European region over 1979-2019. As shown by previous studies, the most significant covariability mode of SIC/BK is found for November. Similarly, the covariability with SCE/EUR is only statistically significant for November, not for October. Changes in temperature, specific humidity, SIC/BK and SCE/EUR in November are associated with a circulation anomaly over the Ural-Siberian region that appears as a precursor of the winter NAO; where the advection of climatological temperature/humidity by the anomalous flow is related to SCE/EUR and SIC/BK anomalies. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Commissions H2020 projects APPLICATE (GA 727862) and PRIMAVERA (GA 641727), and the ANR Belmont RACE project (ANR-20-AORS-0002). JG-S has been supported by the Ramón y Cajal programme (RYC-2016-21181). MM has been supported by the MINECO project VOLCADEC (CGL201570177-R). JB has been supported by MINECO projects CGL2016-81828-REDT (AEI) and RTI2018-098693-B643-C32 (AEI). The authors thank Hervé Douville (CNRM/Météo-France) and Guillaume Gastineau (LOCEAN/IPSL, France) for useful discussions, and two anonymous reviewers for their valuable insights.

Alkaline volcanic rocks from explosive monogenetic centers often carry an unusual cargo of crystals and rock fragments, which may provide valuable constraints on magma source, ascent and eruption. One of such examples is the Cenozoic Calatrava Volcanic Field in central Spain, a still poorly explored area to address these issues. Clinopyroxene, amphibole and phlogopite appear either as megacryst/phenocrysts or forming fine-grained cumulates (pyroxenite enclaves s.l.) in some eruptive centers of this volcanic field. They have previously been interpreted as cogenetic high-P minerals formed within the upper lithospheric mantle. The presence of Fe-Na-rich green and Mg-Cr-rich colorless clinopyroxene types as phenocryst cores or as oscillatory zoned crystals in pyroxenite enclaves points to a complex evolution of mineral fractionates from petrogenetically related magmas. In trace element chemistry all studied clinopyroxene types show parallel rare earth element patterns irrespective of whether they are megacrysts, colorless or green core phenocrysts, or zoned crystals within pyroxenite cumulates. This similarity indicates a genetic relationship between all the fractionated minerals. This is in agreement with the overlapping of initial 143Nd/144Nd and 87Sr/86Sr ratios of pyroxenite enclaves (0.512793–0.512885 and 0.703268–0.703778) that is within the chemical field of the host magmas and the Calatrava volcanics. The initial 143Nd/144Nd and 87Sr/86Sr ratios of megacrystic clinopyroxene, amphibole and phlogopite show a more restricted range (0.512832–0.512890 and 0.703217–0.703466), also falling within the isotopic composition of the Calatrava volcanic rocks. Deep magmatic systems beneath monogenetic volcanic fields involve several stages of melt accumulation, fractionation and contamination at variable depths. Trace element and isotope mineral chemistry are powerful tools to understand the history of ascent and stagnation of alkaline basaltic magmas and discriminate between magma mixing, wall-rock contamination and closed magmatic system evolution. In our study, we establish a cogenetic origin for green and colorless clinopyroxene as high-pressure precipitates from liquids of different fractionation degrees (up to 80%, for the highly evolved melts equilibrated with the green clinopyroxene), originated from a highly solidified front of silica-undersaturated alkaline magmas at mantle reservoirs.

El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) represents the major driver of interannual climate variability at the global scale. Observational and model-based studies have fostered a long-standing debate on the shape and the intensity of ENSO influence over the Euro-Mediterranean sector. Indeed, the detection of this signal is strongly affected by the large variability which characterizes the atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic and European sector.Different mechanisms have been proposed as involved in the propagation of ENSO signal from low to mid latitude, and we want to investigate if and how the low frequency variability of North Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST) may affect their efficacy. In this work, we study how the different phases of the extratropical SST pattern linked to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) modulates the ENSO fingerprint over the Euro-Mediterranean region.A set of idealized sensitivity experiments designed in the framework of the MEDSCOPE project has permitted to identify the ENSO teleconnection over the Euro-Mediterranean domain and to reveal the potential modulating role of the different phases of the extratropical PDO SST forcing.In order to place this process in a dynamical framework, a tropospheric pathway has been proposed. The propagation of planetary waves from low to mid latitude has been investigated, by looking at the sensitivity of this mechanism to different underlying mean state.These results allow to gain a deeper understanding of the links between mid-latitude climate variability and tropical forcing and of the processes ruling the low-mid latitude teleconnection in the Northern Hemisphere. Moreover, a clearer insight of these processes may lead to a new comprehension of possible sources of predictability for the Euro-Mediterranean domain over different time scales.

The Atlantic Niño is the leading mode of interannual variability in the Tropical Atlantic, which has impacts not only on the African monsoon but also in remote regions. In the present study, we investigate the predictability of the Atlantic Niño's mature phase (June-July) at seasonal time-scale, as well as its conditioning. We analyze a large set of state-of-the art forecasts systems from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) multi-models. The prediction skill of the ATL3 index has considerably improved as compared to previous forecast quality assessments, with Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) reaching up to 0.8 for the May start date. Most of the models achieve skillful prediction of the Atlantic Niño from the May start-date, and some outperform persistence. For the start-dates of April, March and February, most of the models perform better than persistence and some achieve significant correlation skill for ATL3. While there has been improvement in forecasting capability, overall the warm SST bias and associated drift remain large in the equatorial Atlantic in most of the systems. Our results suggests that the skill in predicting the Atlantic Niño in summer is weakly related to the local SST drift during the first month of the forecast, but not to the magnitude of the SST bias during the peak. In addition, we find evidence that the skill in the equatorial Atlantic is related to the ability of the models to properly represent the large-scale atmospheric circulation pattern in the South Atlantic (i.e. St. Helena high).

The European Consortium EC-EARTH climate model version 3.1 is used to assess the effects of a well-resolved stratosphere on the representation of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Three 100-year long experiments with fixed radiative forcing representative of the present climate are compared: one with the top at 0.01hPa and 91 vertical levels (HIGH-TOP), another with the top at 5hPa and 62 vertical levels (LOW-TOP), and another high-top experiment with the stratosphere nudged to the climatology of HIGH-TOP from 10hPa upwards (NUDG). The differences in vertical resolution between HIGH-TOP and LOW-TOP start at around 100hPa. This study focuses on the canonical ENSO phenomenon, which is the most important source of variability and predictability on seasonal-to-interannual timescales. Preliminary results indicate that EC-EARTH realistically simulates the ENSO SST pattern in the tropical Pacific regardless of vertical resolution, although HIGH-TOP (LOW-TOP) overestimates (underestimates) the SST variability during boreal summer (winter). In both configurations, the SST tongue is narrower meridionally and slightly shifted towards the central-western Pacific compared to observations, a common bias of climate models. Resolving the stratosphere has a clear effect on the power spectrum of the Niño3.4 index: as compared to observations where there is a well-known frequency range of 2-7 years, HIGH-TOP and LOW-TOP have a prominent peak centered at 4-5 years but additionally both simulations display another peak, towards higher (~ 2yrs) and lower (~ 7yrs) frequencies, respectively. Another impact of including a well-resolved stratosphere is to systematically enhance the amplitude of the SST, wind and convective anomalies in the tropical Pacific throughout the entire ENSO cycle. Finally, similar differences are obtained when comparing HIGH-TOP and NUDG, suggesting an active role of the tropical stratospheric variability on ENSO.

Advances in the development of seasonal forecast systems allow skillful predictions of the atmospheric flow in the extratropics. Recent studies have highlighted the importance of stratospheric processes in climate variability at seasonal time scales, while their representation and impact in seasonal prediction is yet to be understood. Here stratospheric variability and predictability in boreal winter are evaluated on the seasonal range, using multi-model retrospective forecasts initialised in November. A novel focus is adopted to assess troposphere-stratosphere coupling (i.e., the interaction between upper-tropospheric eddy heat flux and the stratospheric polar vortex) on the basis of the empirical relation derived by Hinssen and Ambaum (2010)[1]. Results indicate that dynamical predictions perform better than persistence forecasts and show significant skill up to lead season one (December to February). We find that seasonal anomalies of stratospheric zonal-mean zonal wind in the extratropics are mostly explained by anomalous tropospheric eddy heat flux; the response to tropospheric wave forcing is weaker in models than in reanalysis. Furthermore, we demonstrate that skillful seasonal stratospheric forecasts benefit from residual predictability of the heat flux over the Pacific sector, while further improvements are limited by current unpredictability of the Eurasian heat flux on the seasonal time scale. Sources of long-term predictability are examined and reveal a potential influence of the QBO, Arctic sea ice, Eurasian snow cover and ENSO. This work is realised using data from the seasonal Copernicus Climate Change Service multi-model (November initialisations from 1993 to 2016) and from ERA-Interim reanalysis.[1] Hinssen, Y. B. L. and Ambaum, M. H. P.: Relation between the 100-hPa heat flux and stratospheric potential vorticity, J. Atmos.Sci., 67, 4017–4027, 2010.

A new global high-resolution coupled climate model, EC-Earth3P-HR has been developed by the EC-Earth consortium, with a resolution of approximately 40 km for the atmosphere and 0.25 degree for the ocean, alongside with a standard resolution version of the model, EC-Earth3P (80 km atmosphere, 1.0 degree ocean). The model forcing and simulations follow the HighResMIP protocol. According to this protocol all simulations are made with both high and standard resolutions. The model has been optimized with respect to scalability, performance, data-storage and post-processing. In accordance with the HighResMIP protocol no specific tuning for the high resolution version has been applied. Increasing horizontal resolution does not result in a general reduction of biases and overall improvement of the variability, and deteriorating impacts can be detected for specific regions and phenomena such as some Euro-Atlantic weather regimes, whereas others such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation show a clear improvement in their spatial structure. The omission of specific tuning might be responsible for this. The shortness of the spin-up, as prescribed by the HighResMIP protocol, prevented the model to reach equilibrium. The trend in the control and historical simulations, however, appeared to be similar, resulting in a warming trend, obtained by subtracting the control from the historical simulation, close to the observational one.

Northern Hemisphere western boundary currents, like the Gulf Stream, are key regions for cyclogenesis affecting large-scale atmospheric circulation. Recent observations and model simulations with high-temporal and -spatial resolution have provided evidence that the associated ocean fronts locally affect troposphere dynamics. A coherent view of how this affects the mean climate and its variability is, however, lacking. In particular the separate role of resolved ocean and atmosphere dynamics in shaping the atmospheric circulation is still largely unknown. Here we demonstrate for the first time, by using coupled seasonal forecast experiments at different resolutions, that resolving meso-scale oceanic variability in the Gulf Stream region strongly affects mid-latitude interannual atmospheric variability, including the North Atlantic Oscillation. Its impact on climatology, however, is minor. Increasing atmosphere resolution to meso-scale, on the other hand, strongly affects mean climate but moderately its variability. We also find that regional predictability relies on adequately resolving small-scale atmospheric processes, while resolving small-scale oceanic processes acts as an unpredictable source of noise, except for the North Atlantic storm-track where the forcing of the atmosphere translates into skillful predictions.

Our study suggests that record-breaking low precipitation over parts of western Europe during December 2016 may have been favored by an unprecedented reduction of Arctic sea ice, likely driven by anthropogenic climate change.

The South Pacific (SP) region exerts large control on the climate of the Southern Hemisphere at many times scales. This paper identifies the main modes of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the SP which consist of a tropical-driven mode related to a horseshoe structure of positive/negative SST anomalies within midlatitudes and highly correlated to ENSO and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) variability, and another mode mostly confined to extratropical latitudes which is characterized by zonal propagation of SST anomalies within the South Pacific Gyre. Both modes are associated with temperature and rainfall anomalies over the continental regions of the Southern Hemisphere. Besides the leading mode which is related to well known warmer/cooler and drier/moister conditions due to its relationship with ENSO and the IPO, an inspection of the extratropical mode indicates that it is associated with distinct patterns of sea level pressure and surface temperature advection. These relationships are used here as plausible and partial explanations to the observed warming trend observed within the Southern Hemisphere during the last decades. The authors would like to thank Scott Power for his comments on an earlier version of the manuscript and the two anonymous reviewers whose suggestions led to a substantial improvement of the paper. This study was supported by Grants UBACyT-20020100100803, UBACyT-20020120300051, PIP-11220120100586 and the SPECS (GA 308378) EU-funded Project. JG-S was partially supported by the H2020-funded MSCA-IF-EF DPETNA project (GA No. 655339). The authors acknowledge the Red Española de Supercomputación (RES) and PRACE for awarding access to MareNostrum 3 at the Barcelona Supercomputing Center through the HiResClim project. The support of Virginie Guémas and Oriol Mula-Valls at the Barcelona Supercomputing Center is warmly appreciated.

Forecast verification is necessary to determine the skill and quality of a forecasting system, and whether it shows improvement with pre- or post-processing. s2dverification v2.8.0 is an open-source R package for the quality assessment of climate forecasts using state-of-the-art verification scores. The package provides tools for each step of the forecast verification process: data retrieval, processing, calculation of verification measures and visualisation of the results. Examples are provided and explained for each of these stages using climate model output.

Recent studies have indicated the importance of fall climate forcings and teleconnections in influencing the climate of the northern mid- to high latitudes. Here, we present some exploratory analyses using observational data and seasonal hindcasts, with the aim of highlighting the potential of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as a driver of climate variability during boreal late fall and early winter (November and December) in the North Atlantic–European sector, and motivating further research on this relatively unexplored topic. The atmospheric ENSO teleconnection in November and December is reminiscent of the east Atlantic pattern and distinct from the well-known arching extratropical Rossby wave train found from January to March. Temperature and precipitation over Europe in November are positively correlated with the Niño-3.4 index, which suggests a potentially important ENSO climate impact during late fall. In particular, the ENSO-related temperature anomaly extends over a much larger area than during the subsequent winter months. We discuss the implications of these results and pose some research questions. We gratefully acknowledge the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Reanalysis 1 (R-1), ERA-Interim, E-Obs, CRUTS, Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature dataset (HadISST), and ECMWF Sys4 hindcasts datasets. MPK, CL, and SS are partially supported by the Research Council of Norway’s Klimaforsk program (Project 255027), IHB by the Croatian Science Foundation (Project 2831), and IB and JG-S by the Spanish MINECO-funded DANAE project (CGL2015-68342-R). Comments from Dr. M. A. Alexander (editor) and three reviewers have helped to improve this article.

One of the most robust remote impacts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the teleconnection to tropical North Atlantic (TNA) sea surface temperature (SST) in boreal spring. However, important questions still remain open. In particular, the timing of the ENSO–TNA relationship lacks understanding. The three previously proposed mechanisms rely on teleconnection dynamics involving a time lag of one season with respect to the ENSO mature phase in winter, but recent results have shown that the persistence of ENSO into spring is necessary for the development of the TNA SST anomalies. Likewise, the identification of the effective atmospheric forcing in the deep TNA to drive the regional air–sea interaction is also lacking. In this manuscript a new dynamical framework to understand the ENSO–TNA teleconnection is proposed, in which a continuous atmospheric forcing is present throughout the ENSO decaying phase. Observational datasets in the satellite era, which include reliable estimates over the ocean, are used to illustrate the mechanism at play. The dynamics rely on the remote Gill-type response to the ENSO zonally compensated heat source over the Amazon basin, associated with perturbations in the Walker circulation. For El Niño conditions, the anomalous diabatic heating in the tropical Pacific is compensated by anomalous diabatic cooling, in association with negative rainfall anomalies and descending motion over northern South America. A pair of anomalous cyclonic circulations is established at upper-tropospheric levels in the tropical Atlantic straddling the equator, displaying a characteristic baroclinic structure with height. In the TNA region, the mirrored anomalous anticyclonic circulation at lower-tropospheric levels weakens the northeasterly trade winds, leading to a reduction in evaporation and of the ocean mixed layer depth, hence to positive SST anomalies. Apart from the dominance of latent heat flux anomalies in the remote response, sensible heat flux and shortwave radiation anomalies also appear to contribute. The “lagged” relationship between mature ENSO in winter and peaking TNA SSTs in spring seems to be phase locked with the seasonal cycle in both the location of the mechanism’s centers of action and regional SST variance. This work has been supported by the EU/H2020-funded MSCA-IF-EF DPETNA project (GA 655339) and JG-S was partially supported by the Spanish MINECO-funded DANAE Project (CGL2015-68342-R). Technical support at BSC (Computational Earth Sciences group) is sincerely acknowledged. The authors are grateful to the anonymous reviewers for their comments, which helped to improve the scope of the manuscript.

Identifying regions sensitive to external radiative changes, including anthropogenic (sulphate aerosols and greenhouse gases) and natural (volcanoes and solar variations) forcings, is important to formulate actionable information at multi-year time-scales. Internally-generated climate variability can overcome this radiative forcing, especially at regional level, so that detecting the areas for this potential dominance is likewise critical for decadal prediction. This work aims to clarify where each contribution has the largest effect on North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) predictions in relation to the Atlantic multi-decadal variability (AMV). Initialized decadal hindcasts and radiatively-forced historical simulations from the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project are analysed to assess multi-year skill of the AMV. The initialized hindcasts reproduce better the phase of the AMV index fluctuations. The radiatively-forced component consists of a residual positive trend, although its identification is ambiguous. Initialization reduces the inter-model spread when estimating the level of AMV skill, thus reducing its uncertainty. Our results show a skilful performance of the initialized hindcasts in capturing the AMV-related SST anomalies over the subpolar gyre and Labrador Sea regions, as well as in the eastern subtropical basin, and the inability of the radiatively-forced historical runs to simulate the horseshoe-like AMV signature over the North Atlantic. Initialization outperforms empirical predictions based on persistence beyond 1–4 years ahead, suggesting that ocean dynamics play a role in the AMV predictability beyond the thermal inertia. The initialized hindcasts are also more skilful at reproducing the observed AMV teleconnection to the West African monsoon. The impact of the start date frequency is also described, showing that the standard of 5-year interval between start dates yields the main features of the AMV skill that are robustly detected in hindcasts with yearly start date sampling. This work updates previous studies, complementing them, and concludes that skilful initialized multi-model forecasts of the AMV-related climate variability can be formulated, improving uninitialized projections, until 3–6 years ahead.

Since the Mediterranean Sea is halfway between subtropical and middle latitudes, and it represents a marginal oceanic region, research has tended to focus on how large-scale modes of atmospheric variability modulate its surface temperature. Conversely, the present study examines the potential influence of the Mediterranean Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation. In particular, this work explores the large-scale changes in the global circulation forced/influenced by the eastern Mediterranean summer-autumn SST pattern. To isolate the atmospheric response, AGCM sensitivity experiments with prescribed SST over the Mediterranean Sea and climatology elsewhere are analysed. Observational diagnostics upon the period used to define the boundary conditions (1979–2002) are also interpreted. Our results support the hypothesis of an atmospheric pattern initiated in the Mediterranean basin, pointing out both a local baroclinic response and a barotropic circumglobal anomaly. This atmospheric teleconnection pattern projects onto a hemispheric wave-like structure, reflecting the waveguide effect of the westerly jets. Results suggest, thereby, that the recurrent summer-autumn circumglobal teleconnection pattern can be excited locally by changes in the atmosphere over the Mediterranean region. A linear behaviour is found upon a regional impact over northeastern Africa. The remote impacts present however a nonlinear signature: anomalous warm conditions influencing on northern Europe and Euro–Asia, whereas anomalous cold conditions impacting more on the North Pacific basin. Limitations in our model setup are also discussed.

[1] This article aims at quantifying the improvement in climate prediction skill as a function of temporal (from monthly to decadal) and spatial scales (from grid point to global) when initializing a perturbed parameter ensemble of the Hadley Centre Climate Model. The focus is on near-surface temperature and precipitation in the Tropical band, the Northern and Southern hemispheres. For temperature, the forecast system reproduces the dominant impact of the external forcing at global spatial scale and at decadal time scales. There are significant improvements with initialization for the first 40 forecast months in the global and tropical domains. In the Northern (Southern) hemisphere, the initialization increases the skill in the first 12 (20) months on regional but not hemispheric scales. The initialization has a stronger impact in the model variants with a weaker global-mean temperature trend. For precipitation, the initialization corrects the negative correlation found at global and tropical scales.

Seasonal climate forecasts occupy an intermediate zone between weather forecasting and climate projections. They share with the numerical weather prediction the difficulty of initializing the simulations with a realistic state of the atmosphere and the need to periodically verify different aspects of their quality, while additionally are burdened by uncertainties in feedback processes thatalsoplayacentralroleinconstrainingclimateprojections.Seasonalpredictions have to deal also with the challenge of initializing all the components of the climate system (ocean, sea ice, and land surface). The value of skilful seasonal forecasts is obvious for many societal sectors and is currently being included in the framework of developing climate services. Seasonal forecasts will in addition be valuable by increasing the acceptance of climate projections among the general public. This advanced-review article presents an overview of the state-of-the-art in globalseasonalpredictabilityandforecastingforclimateresearchersanddiscusses fundamental advances to increase forecast quality in the near future. The article concludes with a list of challenges where seasonal forecasting is expected to focus on in the near future. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

[1] The present study offers for the first time the validation of decadal prediction systems upon the West African monsoon (WAM) variability. The ENSEMBLES multimodel and perturbed parameter decadal reforecasts are used to assess multiyear prediction skill for the dominant WAM precipitation regimes. Thus, the focus of the assessment is on time scales longer than seasonal to interannual. To retain lower-frequency predictability (interannual to decadal), a 4 year average is applied, which indeed has been shown to remove most of the interannual variability that is unpredictable beyond 1 year in dynamical forecasting (e.g., El Nino–Southern Oscillation). First, the decadal hindcasts are analyzed to assess forecast skill of Guinean and Sahelian area-averaged rainfall indices. Findings suggest that there is no significant skill in predicting these rainfall indices, probably due to the distinctive representations of deep tropical convection in each forecast system. This is further addressed by computing and comparing the leading modes of WAM variability in the ENSEMBLES decadal reforecasts against observations. Results show that while in the observations, global warming has an important role, in the forecast systems, the Atlantic Ocean is the main player. The Atlantic Nino represents the leading forcing for the simulated Guinean precipitation. Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with the simulated Sahelian precipitation project onto the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV), in which the subtropical branch shows consistency across the forecast systems. No significant skill has been found, however, to predict these WAM precipitation modes, although the Sahelian pattern presents systematic positive correlation scores and lower root mean square errors along the whole forecast range. This is reflected in a tendency for reproducing the Sahel dry period around the 1980s. Likewise, the good performance across the models in simulating the relationship between the leading rainfall modes and the surrounding SST forcings points out encouraging prospects for decadal forecasting. Previous studies show multiyear prediction skill of the AMV in the ENSEMBLES decadal reforecasts. Here the skill of the Atlantic-3 SST index is discussed.

16 páginas, 3 figuras., The next generation of climate-driven, disease prediction models will most likely require a mechanistically based, dynamical framework that parameterizes key processes at a variety of locations. Over the next two decades, consensus climate predictions make it possible to produce forecasts for a number of important infectious diseases that are largely independent of the uncertainty of longer-term emissions scenarios. In particular, the role of climate in the modulation of seasonal disease transmission needs to be unravelled from the complex dynamics resulting from the interaction of transmission with herd immunity and intervention measures that depend upon previous burdens of infection. Progress is also needed to solve the mismatch between climate projections and disease projections at the scale of public health interventions. In the time horizon of seasons to years, early warning systems should benefit from current developments on multi-model ensemble climate prediction systems, particularly in areas where high skill levels of climate models coincide with regions where large epidemics take place. A better understanding of the role of climate extremes on infectious diseases is urgently needed, FJDR received financial support from the ENSEMBLES project (GOCE-CT-2003-505539). Support for this work was also provided by CIRCE-EUFP6 to X.R., by NIH/NSF EID Grant 0430120 and a NOAA award to X.R., M.P., J.K. and A.J.D. J.G-S and X. Rodó wants to acknowledge support from the EU project QWeCI (Quantifying Weather and Climate Impacts on health in developing countries; funded by the European Commission’s Seventh Framework Research Programme under the grant agreement 243964). and the DENFREE: DENgue research Framework for Resisting Epidemics in Europe of the EUFP7 programme project. M. Pascual is an investigator of the Howard Hughes Medical Institute.

The record low Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter sea ice maximum stemmed from a strong interannual surface anomaly in the Pacific sector, but it would not have been reached without long-term climate change. Fučkar and Massonnet are Juan de la Cierva fellows. Guemas, García-Serrano and Bellprat are Ramón y Cajal, Marie Curie, and ESA fellows, respectively. This study was supported by the funding from the EU’s SPECS (308378), EUCLEIA (607085) and PRIMAVERA (641727) projects. The authors thank the editor and reviewers for constructive input and acknowledge the computer resources, technical expertise, and assistance provided by the Red Española de Supercomputación (RES) network and the Barcelona Supercomputing Center.