1. Comprehensive epithelial tubo-ovarian cancer risk prediction model incorporating genetic and epidemiological risk factors
- Author
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Stephanie Archer, Simon A. Gayther, Jatinder Kalsi, Usha Menon, Faiza Gaba, Andy C. H. Lee, Tim Carver, Fiona M Walter, Paul D.P. Pharoah, Antonis C. Antoniou, Marc Tischkowitz, Ian Jacobs, Ranjit Manchanda, Douglas F. Easton, Xin Yang, Jonathan Tyrer, Aleksandra Gentry-Maharaj, Goska Leslie, Andy Ryan, Susan J. Ramus, Alex P Cunningham, Nasim Mavaddat, Lee, Andrew [0000-0003-0677-0252], Yang, Xin [0000-0003-0037-3790], Tyrer, Jonathan [0000-0003-3724-4757], Mavaddat, Nasim [0000-0003-0307-055X], Cunningham, Alex [0000-0002-3737-9611], Archer, Stephanie [0000-0003-1349-7178], Manchanda, Ranjit [0000-0003-3381-5057], Ramus, Susan J [0000-0003-0005-7798], Tischkowitz, Marc [0000-0002-7880-0628], Easton, Douglas [0000-0003-2444-3247], Pharoah, Paul [0000-0001-8494-732X], Antoniou, Antonis [0000-0001-9223-3116], Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository, and Antoniou, Antonis C [0000-0001-9223-3116]
- Subjects
Oncology ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Percentile ,Multifactorial Inheritance ,Tubo-ovarian ,endocrine system diseases ,Genetic counseling ,Population ,Breast Neoplasms ,Carcinoma, Ovarian Epithelial ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,Risk Factors ,Internal medicine ,Epidemiology ,Medicine ,Humans ,Genetic Predisposition to Disease ,genetics ,Family history ,education ,Adverse effect ,Cancer genetics ,Genetics (clinical) ,030304 developmental biology ,Ovarian Neoplasms ,clinical decision-making ,0303 health sciences ,education.field_of_study ,genetic counseling ,business.industry ,public health ,Cancer ,medicine.disease ,3. Good health ,030220 oncology & carcinogenesis ,Female ,business ,early diagnosis - Abstract
Funder: Department of Health; FundRef: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000276, Funder: Ontario Research Fund, Funder: CHU de Quebec Foundation, Funder: Fondation du cancer du sein du Qu��bec; FundRef: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100016328, Funder: The Eve Appeal, Background: Epithelial tubo-ovarian cancer (EOC) has high mortality partly due to late diagnosis. Prevention is available but may be associated with adverse effects. A multifactorial risk model based on known genetic and epidemiological risk factors (RFs) for EOC can help identify women at higher risk who could benefit from targeted screening and prevention. Methods: We developed a multifactorial EOC risk model for women of European ancestry incorporating the effects of pathogenic variants (PVs) in BRCA1, BRCA2, RAD51C, RAD51D and BRIP1, a Polygenic Risk Score (PRS) of arbitrary size, the effects of RFs and explicit family history (FH) using a synthetic model approach. The PRS, PV and RFs were assumed to act multiplicatively. Results: Based on a currently available PRS for EOC that explains 5% of the EOC polygenic variance, the estimated lifetime risks under the multifactorial model in the general population vary from 0.5% to 4.6% for the first to 99th percentiles of the EOC risk distribution. The corresponding range for women with an affected first-degree relative is 1.9%���10.3%. Based on the combined risk distribution, 33% of RAD51D PV carriers are expected to have a lifetime EOC risk of less than 10%. RFs provided the widest distribution, followed by the PRS. In an independent partial model validation, absolute and relative 5-year risks were well calibrated in quintiles of predicted risk. Conclusion: This multifactorial risk model can facilitate stratification, in particular among women with FH of cancer and/or moderate-risk and high-risk PVs. The model is available via the CanRisk Tool (www.canrisk.org).
- Published
- 2021
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