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The rapid urbanization in Africa profoundly affects local food and ecological systems. According to earlier research, urbanization may cause food production and biodiversity losses as agricultural or natural lands are absorbed by expanding cities. Land-use displacement effects may buffer agricultural production losses or may lead to additional biodiversity losses but are often overlooked. Moreover, impacts of dietary changes associated with urbanization are rarely considered. To address this, we combined spatially explicit projections of African urban area expansion with observed rice consumption shifts to inform a partial equilibrium model (the Global Biosphere Management Model). We demonstrate the importance of displacement effects to identify potential food production or biodiversity issues until 2050 and argue for their integration in land-use planning and policymaking across spatial scales. We identify that because of agricultural displacement, the impact of urban area expansion on food production losses is probably limited (<1%)—at the cost of additional losses of natural lands by 2050 (up to 2 Mt). We also show that considering dietary shifts associated with urbanization increases rice consumption, production (+8.0%), trade (up to +2 Mt of required import) and agricultural methane emissions (up to +12 MtCO2-equivalent yr–1), thereby underscoring the need for a systems approach in future sustainability studies.

As Africa is facing multiple challenges related to food security, frameworks integrating production and availability are urgent for policymaking. Attention should be given not only to gradual socio-economic and climatic changes but also to their temporal variability. Here we present an integrated framework that allows one to assess the impacts of socio-economic development, gradual climate change and climate anomalies. We apply this framework to rice production and consumption in Africa whereby we explicitly account for the continent’s dependency on imported rice. We show that socio-economic development dictates rice availability, whereas climate change has only minor effects in the long term and is predicted not to amplify supply shocks. Still, rainfed-dominated or self-producing regions are sensitive to local climatic anomalies, while trade dominates stability in import-dependent regions. Our study suggests that facilitating agricultural development and limiting trade barriers are key in relieving future challenges to rice availability and stability.

Concurrent with an extensive population growth, the African continent has experienced a vast urbanization trend over the last decades. In 2000, around 35% of the population resided in urban areas. By 2020, this share has increased to around 44% and is projected to increase even further by 2050 following the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. Besides an important effect on local land use through urban expansion, this also affects food systems by shifting dietary patterns away from traditional diets towards imported or convenient goods. This is particularly the case for rice, which is predominantly imported from Southeast Asia, India, or Pakistan, and is gaining in popularity in African urban diets because of the low effort needed for cooking or storage – giving it a strong advantage over other staple crops. This dietary shift will alter trade dynamics, increase the pressure on local resources such as land, water, and fertilizer use, and subsequently also on biodiversity. In studies investigating the influence of urbanization, either the direct effect of urban expansion on land cover or the effects of dietary changes on demands are investigated, but rarely a combination or comparison of both. Particularly in impact studies or applications that focus on the synergy between water, land, and food-related issues, the dimension of human behavior, such as consumer preferences, is often overlooked. In this study, we provide an initial projection of the expected future effects of both sprawl and shifting preferences for rice caused by urbanization on rice availability, land – and input use, rice-specific emissions, and trade dynamics. By combining micro-level data from household surveys stemming from the Living Standards Measurements Study (LSMS) with the partial equilibrium Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM) at an African scale, we were able to identify the relative contribution of land cover effects stemming directly from urban expansion and indirectly

Developing and integrating agricultural markets may be key to addressing Africa’s sustainability challenges. By modelling trade costs from farm gate to potential import markets across eight African regions, we investigate the impact of individual components of continental free trade and the complementary role of domestic agricultural development through increased market access for farmers and agricultural intensification. We find that free trade would increase intra-African agricultural trade sixfold by 2030 but—since it does not address local supply constraints—outside food imports and undernourishment would reduce only marginally. Agricultural development could almost eliminate undernourishment in Africa by 2050 at only a small cost of increased global greenhouse gas emissions. While continental free trade will be enabled in Africa through the African Continental Free Trade Area, aligning this with local agricultural development policies is crucial to increase intra-African trade gains, promote food security and achieve climate objectives.

This study investigates whether agricultural policy reforms could help cushion the impacts of climate change on agriculture by facilitating the relocation of production and international trade. The agricultural sector faces immense challenges in ensuring the provision of food, farm incomes, employment and environmental services in a changing climate. Its ability to meet these challenges depends, in part, on the flexibility with which agricultural production can be relocated in response to agro-ecological and market conditions being reshaped by climate change in a sustainable manner. To better understand these interactions, this study employs a quantitative model to assess the economic and environmental effects of removing market distorting policies under climate change. The results suggest that the policy reforms could reduce the extent to which climate change increases agricultural commodity prices and undernourishment and, in that sense, contribute to global adaptation to climate change. Accompanying policy measures may however be required to prevent potential trade-offs associated with the reforms, including increases in land use emissions.

Food stability – or the lack thereof has caused several issues on global food security in the past. Prime examples are the COVID-19 pandemic, the Ukraine-Russian war, and the 2008 African food crisis. Meanwhile, the occurrence of extreme meteorological events has been increasing rapidly (droughts, floods, …), resulting in substantial harvest losses putting food security under pressure with strong indications that these will become even more prevalent under climate change. Yet, the amount of studies assessing food stability or potential climate change effects is scarce – hindering purposeful policymaking. This makes a methodological framework to assess food stability urgent.

Satisfying China’s food demand without harming the environment is one of the greatest sustainability challenges for the coming decades. Here we provide a comprehensive forward-looking assessment of the environmental impacts of China’s growing demand on the country itself and on its trading partners. We find that the increasing food demand, especially for livestock products (~16%–30% across all scenarios), would domestically require ~3–12 Mha of additional pasture between 2020 and 2050, resulting in ~−2% to +16% growth in agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The projected ~15%–24% reliance on agricultural imports in 2050 would result in ~90–175 Mha of agricultural land area and ~88–226 MtCO2-equivalent yr−1of GHG emissions virtually imported to China, which account for ~26%–46% and ~13%–32% of China’s global environmental impacts, respectively. The distribution of the environmental impacts between China and the rest of the world would substantially depend on development of trade openness. Thus, to limit the negative environmental impacts of its growing food consumption, besides domestic policies, China needs to also take responsibility in the development of sustainable international trade.

Importance: Exposure to phthalates may affect fetal growth, but previous studies are inconsistent and have not explored the trimester-specific effects of phthalates on repeated measures of fetal growth. Objective: To assess the associations of maternal phthalate metabolites urine concentrations with fetal growth measures and birth outcomes and identify potential windows of vulnerability to exposure. Design: Population-based prospective cohort study, the Generation R Study (2002–2006). Data analysis was performed from November 2019 to June 2020. Setting: Rotterdam, the Netherlands. Participants: 1379 pregnant women. Exposures: Maternal phthalate metabolites urine concentrations in first, second and third trimester. Main outcomes and measures: Fetal head circumference, length and weight measured in the second and third trimester by ultrasound and at birth and preterm birth and small size for gestational age at birth. Results: Higher pregnancy-averaged phthalic acid, low molecular weight phthalate (LMWP), high molecular weight phthalate (HMWP) and di-2-ethylhexylphthalate (DEHP) concentrations tended to be associated with lower fetal weight SDS across gestation. The associations of phthalic acid and LMWP with fetal weight became stronger as pregnancy progressed (differences −0.08 (95% CI −0.14 to −0.02) SDS and −0.09 (95% CI −0.16 to −0.02) SDS at 40 weeks per interquartile range increase in phthalic acid and LMWP, respectively). Higher concentrations of specific LMWP, HMWP and DEHP metabolites were also associated with smaller head circumference and lower length SDS at birth and an increased risk of preterm birth and small size for gestational age at birth (p-values < 0.05). We observed differences by timing of exposure in these associations. Conclusions and relevance: Higher maternal phthalate metabolites urine concentrations seem to be related with fetal growth restriction and preterm birth. Phthalates may have trimester specific effects on fetal growth and birth ou

Achieving climate neutrality in the European Union (EU) by 2050 will require substantial efforts across all economic sectors, including agriculture. At the same time, an ambitious unilateral EU agricultural mitigation policy is likely to have adverse effects on the sector and may have limited efficiency at global scale due to emission leakage to non-EU regions. To analyse the competitiveness of the EU's agricultural sector and potential non-CO2 emission leakage conditional on mitigation efforts outside the EU, we apply three economic agricultural sector models. We find that an ambitious unilateral EU mitigation policy in line with efforts needed to achieve the 1.5 °C target globally strongly affects EU ruminant production and trade balance. However, since EU farmers rank among the most greenhouse gas efficient producers worldwide, if the rest of the world were to start pursuing agricultural mitigation efforts too, economic impacts of an ambitious domestic mitigation policy get buffered and EU livestock producers could even start to benefit from a globally coordinated mitigation policy.

Trade liberalization in the early 21st century increased the adaptation capacity of global food systems to climate change; further liberalization and trade facilitation could help to avoid dozens of millions being undernourished at mid-century. The global trade agenda should explicitly include climate change adaptation to achieve SDG 2 Zero Hunger.

This Excel file contains the data used in the plotting of the figures in the manuscript titled "The environmental challenge and trade implications of China’s future food demand"​ to be published in Nature Sustainability in 2021. In the data file you can find 1) bilateral trade quantity, 2) domestic environmental impact, 3), virtual environmental trade flows, 4) sensitivity results of environmental impacts in 2050.​

Background: Exposure to bisphenols and phthalates might influence bone health. We hypothesized that exposure to bisphenols and phthalates during fetal life has persistent effects on bone development. Objectives: To analyze the associations of fetal exposure to bisphenols and phthalates with bone health in school-aged children. Methods: Among 1,362 mother-child pairs participating in a population-based cohort study, we measured maternal urinary concentrations of bisphenols and phthalates at first, second and third trimester with high performance liquid chromatography electrospray ionization

International trade enables us to exploit regional differences in climate change impacts and is increasingly regarded as a potential adaptation mechanism. Here, we focus on hunger reduction through international trade under alternative trade scenarios for a wide range of climate futures. Under the current level of trade integration, climate change would lead to up to 55 million people who are undernourished in 2050. Without adaptation through trade, the impacts of global climate change would increase to 73 million people who are undernourished (+33%). Reduction in tariffs as well as institutional and infrastructural barriers would decrease the negative impact to 20 million (−64%) people. We assess the adaptation effect of trade and climate-induced specialization patterns. The adaptation effect is strongest for hunger-affected import-dependent regions. However, in hunger-affected export-oriented regions, partial trade integration can lead to increased exports at the expense of domestic food availability. Although trade integration is a key component of adaptation, it needs sensitive implementation to benefit all regions.

While an important share of the rural population in Sub-Saharan Africa owns a non-farm enterprise (NFE), it is unclear how these businesses, especially among female owners, contribute to rural development. This study investigates the missing link between rural NFEs and children's education using nationally representative data for Ghana. After controlling for observed and (partially for) unobserved heterogeneity, using OLS and instrumental variable regressions with instruments that are highly relevant and plausibly exogenous, we find that secondary schooling is significantly higher among children whose mother engages in non-farm entrepreneurship. We find a significant positive correlation with Junior High School enrolment but not with Senior High School enrolment, which relates to lower expenses and a better spread in payment for Junior High School education. The link of mother's non-farm entrepreneurship with child secondary education is equally strong for boys and girls and for high- and low-educated mothers, and stronger for poorer households. While most of NFEs are small-scale and informal, our findings suggest that even these businesses can contribute to development. The results furthermore imply that NFEs entail the potential to stimulate child schooling among children of low-educated and poor mothers and thereby reduce inequality in rural education.

Op 24 september 2016 werd de jaarlijkse SZH-dag gehouden in het Brabantse land, en wel op het Milieu Educatief Centrum de Wolfslaar. Dat heeft als eerste in Nederland het predicaat educatief centrum ontvangen van de SZH. De dag werd gecombineerd met de presentatie van het ras van het jaar: de Bonte geit. Diverse geitenhouders waren met hun dieren naar Breda gekomen.

Op 3 oktober stond de biologische zorgboerderij De Groote Modderkolk in het Gelderse Loenen geheel en al in het teken van de SZH-vriendendag. Ruim vijftig belangstellenden wisten hun weg naar dit terrein van Natuurmonumenten te vinden.

De Koninklijke Vereniging Het Nederlandse Trekpaard en de Haflinger viert dit jaar haar honderdjarig bestaan. Vanaf 21 augustus a.s. heeft ze haar Nationale Tentoonstelling in de Brabanthallen in ’s-Hertogenbosch. Drie dagen zullen volop in het teken staan van de imposante trekpaarden.

Onder de rook van de Noord-Hollandse provinciehoofdstad Haarlem ligt recreatiegebied Spaarnwoude. Op informatieboerderij Zorgvrij Spaarnwoude werd op 4 oktober de jaarlijkse SZH-dag gehouden. Gelukkig waren de weergoden ons dit jaar gunstig gestemd. Het was een bijzondere dag vol inspirerende belevenissen, enthousiaste presentaties en educatieve informatie.

Op 21 september 2013 stond Schaapskooi Schijndel geheel en al in het teken van de SZH en de presentatie van het ras van 2013: de Hollandse Herder. Op deze idyllische locatie in Noord-Brabant werd de fokkers- en vriendendag van de SZH gehouden. Ongeveer vijftig geïnteresseerden in het levend erfgoed wisten hun weg naar dit onlangs door de SZH erkende educatieve centrum te vinden.