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Summary: Background: Previous prediction models for adiposity gain have not yet achieved sufficient predictive ability for clinical relevance. We investigated whether traditional and genetic factors accurately predict adiposity gain. Methods: A 5-year gain of ≥5% in body mass index (BMI) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) from baseline were predicted in mid-late adulthood individuals (median of 55 years old at baseline). Proportional hazards models were fitted in 245,699 participants from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort to identify robust environmental predictors. Polygenic risk scores (PRS) of 5 proxies of adiposity [BMI, WHR, and three body shape phenotypes (PCs)] were computed using genetic weights from an independent cohort (UK Biobank). Environmental and genetic models were validated in 29,953 EPIC participants. Findings: Environmental models presented a remarkable predictive ability (AUCBMI: 0.69, 95% CI: 0.68–0.70; AUCWHR: 0.75, 95% CI: 0.74–0.77). The genetic geographic distribution for WHR and PC1 (overall adiposity) showed higher predisposition in North than South Europe. Predictive ability of PRSs was null (AUC: ∼0.52) and did not improve when combined with environmental models. However, PRSs of BMI and PC1 showed some prediction ability for BMI gain from self-reported BMI at 20 years old to baseline observation (early adulthood) (AUC: 0.60–0.62). Interpretation: Our study indicates that environmental models to discriminate European individuals at higher risk of adiposity gain can be integrated in standard prevention protocols. PRSs may play a robust role in predicting adiposity gain at early rather than mid-late adulthood suggesting a more important role of genetic factors in this life period. Funding: French National Cancer Institute (INCA_N°2019-176) 1220, German Research Foundation (BA 5459/2-1), Instituto de Salud Carlos III (Miguel Servet Program CP21/00058).

Abstract Background Whether cancer risk associated with a higher body mass index (BMI), a surrogate measure of adiposity, differs among adults with and without cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and/or type 2 diabetes (T2D) is unclear. The primary aim of this study was to evaluate separate and joint associations of BMI and CVD/T2D with the risk of cancer. Methods This is an individual participant data meta-analysis of two prospective cohort studies, the UK Biobank (UKB) and the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition (EPIC), with a total of 577,343 adults, free of cancer, T2D, and CVD at recruitment. We used Cox proportional hazard regressions to estimate multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between BMI and incidence of obesity-related cancer and in turn overall cancer with a multiplicative interaction between BMI and the two cardiometabolic diseases (CMD). HRs and 95% CIs for separate and joint associations for categories of overweight/obesity and CMD status were estimated, and additive interaction was quantified through relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI). Results In the meta-analysis of both cohorts, BMI (per ~ 5 kg/m2) was positively associated with the risk of obesity-related cancer among participants without a CMD (HR: 1.11, 95%CI: 1.07,1.16), among participants with T2D (HR: 1.11, 95% CI: 1.05,1.18), among participants with CVD (HR: 1.17, 95% CI: 1.11,1.24), and suggestively positive among those with both T2D and CVD (HR: 1.09, 95% CI: 0.94,1.25). An additive interaction between obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2) and CVD with the risk of overall cancer translated into a meta-analytical RERI of 0.28 (95% CI: 0.09–0.47). Conclusions Irrespective of CMD status, higher BMI increased the risk of obesity-related cancer among European adults. The additive interaction between obesity and CVD suggests that obesity prevention would translate into a greater cancer risk reduction among population groups with CVD than among the general population.

En medio de la irrupción de nuevos paradigmas para aproximarse al pasado, miles de películas domésticas huérfanas reclaman su lugar en los programas de conservación institucional en todo el mundo. Estos documentos, hasta hace poco considerados menores, imponen acuciantes desafíos metodológicos al trabajo de los archivos fílmicos. Este texto indaga en las características materiales y conceptuales de estas películas para describir el tránsito entre su espacio privado de origen y su nueva custodia. En la discusión propuesta, se observa la experiencia del Proyecto filmoteca.cl para analizar la metáfora de orfandad de estas imágenes familiares rescatadas, junto a las potencias, riesgos y alcances éticos de su uso contemporáneo. Se constata, además, que el creciente interés por estas películas sin programa está ensanchando el panorama del cine nacional chileno, ampliando su rango más allá del canon estético-narrativo que marcó, sin contrapeso, la realización y archivo durante el siglo XX.

Introduction Breast cancer has become a chronic disease due to survival improvement and the need to monitor the side effects of treatment and the disease itself. The aim of the SURBCAN study is to describe comorbidity, healthcare services use and adherence to preventive recommendations in long-term breast cancer survivors and to compare them with those in women without this diagnosis in order to improve and adapt the care response to this group of survivors.Methods and analysis Population-based retrospective cohort study using real-world data from cancer registries and linked electronic medical records in five Spanish regions. Long-term breast cancer survivors diagnosed between 2000 and 2006 will be identified and matched by age and administrative health area with women without this diagnosis. Sociodemographic and clinical variables including comorbidities and variables on the use of health services between 2012 and 2016 will be obtained from databases in primary and hospital care. Health services use will be assessed through the annual number of visits to primary care professionals and to specialists and through annual imaging and laboratory tests. Factors associated with healthcare utilisation and comorbidities will be analysed using multilevel logistic regression models. Recruitment started in December 2018.Ethics and dissemination This study was approved by the Ethics Committee of Parc de Salut Mar. The results of the study will be published in a peer-reviewed journal and will be presented at national and international scientific conferences and at patient associations.Trial registration number This protocol is registered in Clinical Trials.gov (identifier: NCT03846999).