Search

Aims We assessed the performance of modelsf (risk scores) for predicting recurrence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in patients who have undergone catheter ablation. Methods and results Systematic searches of bibliographic databases were conducted (November 2018). Studies were eligible for inclusion if they reported the development, validation, or impact assessment of a model for predicting AF recurrence after ablation. Model performance (discrimination and calibration) measures were extracted. The Prediction Study Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) was used to assess risk of bias. Meta-analysis was not feasible due to clinical and methodological differences between studies, but c-statistics were presented in forest plots. Thirty-three studies developing or validating 13 models were included; eight studies compared two or more models. Common model variables were left atrial parameters, type of AF, and age. Model discriminatory ability was highly variable and no model had consistently poor or good performance. Most studies did not assess model calibration. The main risk of bias concern was the lack of internal validation which may have resulted in overly optimistic and/or biased model performance estimates. No model impact studies were identified. Conclusion Our systematic review suggests that clinical risk prediction of AF after ablation has potential, but there remains a need for robust evaluation of risk factors and development of risk scores.

Objective The incidence of adrenal crisis (AC) remains high, particularly for people with primary adrenal insufficiency, despite the introduction of behavioural interventions. The present study aimed to identify and evaluate available evidence of interventions aiming to prevent AC in primary adrenal insufficiency. Design This study is a systematic review of the literature and theoretical mapping. Methods MEDLINE, MEDLINE in Process, EMBASE, ERIC, Cochrane CENTRAL, CINAHL, PsycINFO, the Health Management Information Consortium and trial registries were searched from inception to November 2021. Three reviewers independently selected studies and extracted data. Two reviewers appraised the studies for the risk of bias. Results Seven observational or mixed methods studies were identified where interventions were designed to prevent AC in adrenal insufficiency. Patient education was the focus of all interventions and utilised the same two behaviour change techniques, ‘instruction on how to perform a behaviour’ and ‘pharmacological support’. Barrier and facilitator themes aiding or hindering the intervention included knowledge, behaviour, emotions, skills, social influences and environmental context and resources. Most studies did not measure effectiveness, and assessment of knowledge varied across studies. The study quality was moderate. Conclusion This is an emerging field with limited studies available. Further research is required in relation to the development and assessment of different behaviour change interventions to prevent AC.

Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the arrhythmia most commonly diagnosed in clinical practice. It is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Prevalence of AF and complications of AF, estimated by hospitalisations, have increased dramatically in the last decade. Being able to predict AF would allow tailoring of management strategies and a focus on primary or secondary prevention. Models predicting recurrent AF would have particular clinical use for the selection of rhythm control therapy. There are existing prognostic models which combine several predictors or risk factors to generate an individualised estimate of risk of AF. The aim of this systematic review is to summarise and compare model performance measures and predictive accuracy across different models and populations at risk of developing incident or recurrent AF. Methods Methods tailored to systematic reviews of prognostic models will be used for study identification, risk of bias assessment and synthesis. Studies will be eligible for inclusion where they report an internally or externally validated model. The quality of studies reporting a prognostic model will be assessed using the Prediction Study Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST). Studies will be narratively described and included variables and predictive accuracy compared across different models and populations. Meta-analysis of model performance measures for models validated in similar populations will be considered where possible. Discussion To the best of our knowledge, this will be the first systematic review to collate evidence from all studies reporting on validated prognostic models, or on the impact of such models, in any population at risk of incident or recurrent AF. The review may identify models which are suitable for impact assessment in clinical practice. Should gaps in the evidence be identified, research recommendations relating to model development, validation or impact assessment will be made. Findings will be considered in the context of any models already used in clinical practice, and the extent to which these have been validated. Systematic review registration PROSPERO (CRD42018111649).

BackgroundChronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a chronic disease associated with recurring exacerbations, which influence morbidity and mortality for the patient, while placing significant resource burdens on healthcare systems. Non-invasive ventilation (NIV) in a domiciliary setting can help prevent admissions, but the economic evidence to support NIV use is limited.MethodsA Markov model-based cost-utility analysis from the UK National Health Service perspective compared the cost-effectiveness of domiciliary NIV with usual care for two end-stage COPD populations; a stable COPD population commencing treatment with no recent hospital admission; and a posthospital population starting treatment following admission to hospital for an exacerbation. Hospitalisation rates in patients receiving domiciliary NIV compared with usual care were derived from randomised controlled studies in a recent systematic review. Other model parameters were updated with recent evidence.ResultsAt the threshold of £20 000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) domiciliary NIV is 99.9% likely cost-effective in a posthospital population, but unlikely (4%) to be cost-effective in stable populations. The incremental cost-effective ratio (ICER) was £11 318/QALY gained in the posthospital population and £27 380/QALY gained in the stable population. Cost-effectiveness estimates were sensitive to longer-term readmission and mortality risks, and duration of benefit from NIV. Indeed, for stable Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) for stage 4 patients, or with higher mortality and exacerbation risks, ICERs were close to the £20 000/QALY threshold.ConclusionDomiciliary NIV is likely cost-effective for posthospitalised patients, with uncertainty around the cost-effectiveness of domiciliary NIV in stable patients with COPD on which further research should focus.

ObjectivesTo systematically review (1) The effect of obstetric unit (OU) closures on maternal and neonatal outcomes and (2) The association between travel distance/time to an OU and maternal and neonatal outcomes.DesignSystematic review of any quantitative studies with a comparison group.Data sourcesEmbase, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, Applied Social Science Index and Abstracts, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health and grey literature were searched.MethodsEligible studies explored the impact of closure of an OU or the effect of travel distance/time on prespecified maternal or neonatal outcomes. Only studies of women giving birth in high-income countries with universal health coverage of maternity services comparable to the UK were included. Identification of studies, extraction of data and risk of bias assessment were undertaken by at least two reviewers independently. The risk of bias checklist was based on the Cochrane Effective Practice and Organisation of Care criteria and the Newcastle-Ottawa scale. Heterogeneity across studies precluded meta-analysis and synthesis was narrative, with key findings tabulated.Results31 studies met the inclusion criteria. There was some evidence to suggest an increase in babies born before arrival following OU closures and/or associated with longer travel distances or time. This may be associated with an increased risk of perinatal or neonatal mortality, but this finding was not consistent across studies. Evidence on other maternal and neonatal outcomes was limited but did not suggest worse outcomes after closures or with longer travel times/distances. Interpretation of findings for some studies was hampered by concerns around how accurately exposures were measured, and/or a lack of adjustment for confounders or temporal changes.ConclusionIt is not possible to conclude from this review whether OU closure, increased travel distances or times are associated with worse outcomes for the mother or the baby.PROSPERO registration numberCRD42017078503.

This is a protocol for a Cochrane Review (Intervention). The objectives are as follows: To assess the effects of pressure garment therapy for the prevention of hypertrophic scarring after burn injury.

Background The early diagnosis of infection or sepsis in burns are important for patient care. Globally, a large number of burn centres advocate quantitative cultures of wound biopsies for patient management, since there is assumed to be a direct link between the bioburden of a burn wound and the risk of microbial invasion. Given the conflicting study findings in this area, a systematic review was warranted. Methods Bibliographic databases were searched with no language restrictions to August 2015. Study selection, data extraction and risk of bias assessment were performed in duplicate using pre-defined criteria. Substantial heterogeneity precluded quantitative synthesis, and findings were described narratively, sub-grouped by clinical question. Results Twenty six laboratory and/or clinical studies were included. Substantial heterogeneity hampered comparisons across studies and interpretation of findings. Limited evidence suggests that (i) more than one quantitative microbiology sample is required to obtain reliable estimates of bacterial load; (ii) biopsies are more sensitive than swabs in diagnosing or predicting sepsis; (iii) high bacterial loads may predict worse clinical outcomes, and (iv) both quantitative and semi-quantitative culture reports need to be interpreted with caution and in the context of other clinical risk factors. Conclusion The evidence base for the utility and reliability of quantitative microbiology for diagnosing or predicting clinical outcomes in burns patients is limited and often poorly reported. Consequently future research is warranted.

Background Increased microcirculatory flow and perfusion has been reported to improve clinical outcomes following shock. The optimal resuscitation fluid to restore the flow dynamics of the microcirculation is unknown. This review summarizes the preclinical literature to inform the direction and most important hypotheses for future clinical interventional studies. Methods Standard systematic review methodology was utilized, and registered with the Collaborative Approach to Meta Analysis and Review of Animal Data from Experimental Studies (CAMARADES). Medline and Embase (via OVID SP) and SCOPUS were searched for all preclinical studies of haemorrhagic shock that compared fluid resuscitation of any kind (e.g., blood products, crystalloids, colloids, or haemoglobin based oxygen carriers) to another fluid or haemorrhage only, and reported at least one microcirculatory physical endpoint (such as flow rate, velocity, vessel diameter, functional capillary density, or glycocalyx thickness). Risk of bias was assessed using the Systematic Review Centre for Laboratory animal Experimentation (SYRCLE) tool. Translatability was also assessed for each study based on the most common recommendations. Results There were 3,103 potential studies of interest, of which 71 studies fulfilled all eligibility criteria. There were 62 rodent, 5 canine, and 4 porcine studies. Flow rate, velocity, and vessel diameter were the most commonly reported endpoints. Studies reported the importance of the presence of haemoglobin, as well as osmotic potential and viscosity in providing optimal restoration of microcirculatory flow dynamics. Others reported the restoration of the endothelial glycocalyx and attenuation of inflammation as important properties for the choice of fluid. All studies were at potential risk of bias due to unclear randomization, concealment, and blinding. There were important threats to translatability for all studies. Conclusion The ideal resuscitation fluid for restoration of the microcirculation following haemorrhagic shock is likely to contain a preparation of haemoglobin, favor higher oncotic potential, and viscosity, protect and reconstitute the endothelium, and attenuate inflammation. These hypotheses that are derived from preclinical research warrant further exploration in the clinical context.

ObjectiveOlder patients with hip fractures who are undergoing surgery are at high risk of significant mortality and morbidity including postoperative delirium. It is unclear whether different types of anaesthesia may reduce the incidence of postoperative delirium. This systematic review will investigate the impact of anaesthetic technique on postoperative delirium. Other outcomes included mortality, length of stay, complications and functional outcomes.DesignSystematic review of randomised controlled trials and non-randomised controlled studies.Data sourcesBibliographic databases were searched from inception to June 2018. Web of Science and ZETOC databases were searched for conference proceedings. Reference lists of relevant articles were checked, and clinical trial registers were searched to identify ongoing trials.Eligibility criteriaStudies were eligible if general and regional anaesthesia were compared in patients (aged 60 and over) undergoing hip fracture surgery, reporting primary outcome of postoperative delirium and secondary outcomes of mortality, length of hospital stay, adverse events, functional outcomes, discharge location and quality of life. Exclusion criteria were anaesthetic technique or drug not considered current standard practice; patients undergoing hip fracture surgery alongside other surgery and uncontrolled studies.ResultsOne hundred and four studies were included. There was no evidence to suggest that anaesthesia type influences postoperative delirium or mortality. Some studies suggested a small reduction in length of hospital stay with regional anaesthesia. There was some evidence to suggest that respiratory complications and intraoperative hypotension were more common with general anaesthesia. Heterogeneity precluded meta-analysis. All findings were described narratively and data were presented where possible in forest plots for illustrative purposes.ConclusionsWhile there was no evidence to suggest that anaesthesia types influence postoperative delirium, the evidence base is lacking. There is a need to ascertain the impact of type of anaesthesia on outcomes with an adequately powered, methodologically rigorous study.PROSPERO registration numberCRD42015020166.

Enhancing the effectiveness of aspirin by tailoring administration regimens is an important question among health professionals. We conducted a systematic review to evaluate the evidence on the effects of different aspirin regimens in terms of timing (chronotherapy) or frequency of dosing in the prevention of cardiovascular disease. Only two out of the 28 included studies reported long-term cardiovascular outcomes, highlighting an evidence gap that future research should address. The remaining 26 studies used surrogate outcomes.

Janine Dretzke,1 David Moore,1 Chirag Dave,2 Rahul Mukherjee,2 Malcolm J Price,1 Sue Bayliss,1 Xiaoying Wu,1 Rachel E Jordan,1 Alice M Turner2,3 1Institute of Applied Health Research, College of Medical and Dental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, 2Heart of England NHS Foundation Trust, Heartlands Hospital, 3Queen Elizabeth Hospital Research Laboratories, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, UK Introduction: Noninvasive ventilation (NIV) improves survival among patients with hypercapnic respiratory failure in hospital, but evidence for its use in domiciliary settings is limited. A patient’s underlying risk of having an exacerbation may affect any potential benefit that can be gained from domiciliary NIV. This is the first comprehensive systematic review to stratify patients based on a proxy for exacerbation risk: patients in a stable state and those immediately post-exacerbation hospitalization. Methods: A systematic review of nonrandomized and randomized controlled trials (RCTs) was undertaken in order to compare the relative effectiveness of different types of domiciliary NIV and usual care on hospital admissions, mortality, and health-related quality of life. Standard systematic review methods were used for identifying studies (until September 2014), quality appraisal, and synthesis. Data were presented in forest plots and pooled where appropriate using random-effects meta-analysis. Results: Thirty-one studies were included. For stable patients, there was no evidence of a survival benefit from NIV (relative risk [RR] 0.88 [0.55, 1.43], I2=60.4%, n=7 RCTs), but there was a possible trend toward fewer hospitalizations (weighted mean difference -0.46 [-1.02, 0.09], I2=59.2%, n=5 RCTs) and improved health-related quality of life. For posthospital patients, survival benefit could not be demonstrated within the three RCTs (RR 0.89 [0.53, 1.49], I2=25.1%), although there was evidence of benefit from four non-RCTs (RR 0.45 [0.32, 0.65], I2=0%). Effects on hospitalizations were inconsistent. Post hoc analyses suggested that NIV-related improvements in hypercapnia were associated with reduced hospital admissions across both populations. Little data were available comparing different types of NIV. Conclusion: The effectiveness of domiciliary NIV remains uncertain; however, some patients may benefit. Further research is required to identify these patients and to explore the relevance of improvements in hypercapnia in influencing clinical outcomes. Optimum time points for commencing domiciliary NIV and equipment settings need to be established. Keywords: noninvasive ventilation, domiciliary, COPD, hospitalization, systematic review, meta-analysis

Background: The use of transoral robotic surgery (TORS) and laser microsurgery (TLM) in the diagnosis and identification of the site of the unknown primary has become increasingly common. This systematic review and meta-analysis aims to assess the use and efficacy of TORS and TLM for this indication.Method: Systematic review and meta-analysis of studies employing TORS or TLM in diagnosis of the unknown primary tumor site in patients with cervical nodal metastases of squamous cell origin. MEDLINE, EMBASE and CINHAL were searched from inception to July 2018 for all studies that used TORS and or TLM in identifying the unknown primary.Results: 251 studies were identified, of which 21 were eligible for inclusion. The primary tumour was identified by TORS/TLM in 78% of patients (433 out of 556). Tongue base mucosectomy (TBM) identified the primary in 222 of 427 cases (53%). In patients with negative physical examination, diagnostic imaging and PETCT, TBM identified the primary in 64% (95% CI 50, 79) cases. In patients who had negative CT/MRI imaging, negative PETCT and negative EUA and tonsillectomy, TBM identified a tongue base primary in 78% (95% CI 41, 92) cases. Haemorrhage, the commonest complication, was reported in 4.9% cases. Mean length of stay varied between 1.4 and 6.3 days.Conclusion: Tongue base mucosectomy, performed by TORS or TLM, is highly efficacious in identifying the unknown primary in the head and neck region.

Objectives The objective of this systematic review is to identify and summarise studies which examine epigenetic biomarkers in patients with Barrett’s oesophagus (BO) and their association with progression to oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OADC). BO is a precursor lesion for OADC. There is no clinical test to predict patients who are likely to progress to OADC. An epigenetic biomarker could predict patients who are at high risk of progression from BO to OADC which could facilitate earlier diagnosis and spare those unlikely to develop cancer from regular invasive surveillance endoscopy. Setting A systematic search was conducted of the following databases: MEDLINE, MEDLINE in Process, EMBASE, Cochrane Central, ISI Conference Proceedings Citation Index and the British Library’s ZETOC. Studies were conducted in secondary and tertiary care settings. Participants All studies measuring epigenetic change in patients over 18 years old who progressed from non-dysplastic BO to OADC were included. Genetic, in vitro and studies which did not measure progression in the same patient cohort were excluded. Study inclusion and risk of bias of individual eligible studies were assessed in duplicate by two reviewers using a modified Quality in Prognostic Studies tool. Results 14 studies met the inclusion criteria. 42 epigenetic markers were identified, and 5 studies developed models aiming to predict progression to OADC. Conclusions The evidence from this systematic review is suggestive of a role for p16 as an epigenetic biomarker for the progression of BO to OADC. Prospero number CRD42016038654.

Evidence-based interventions are often unavailable in everyday clinical settings. This may partly reflect practitioners' assumptions that research evidence does not reflect "real-world" conditions. To examine this further, we systematically assessed the clinical effectiveness of parent management training (PMT) for the treatment of child disruptive behavior across different real-world practice contexts. We identified 28 relevant randomized controlled trials from a systematic search of electronic bibliographic databases and conducted a meta-analysis of child outcomes across trials. Planned subgroup analyses involved comparisons between studies grouped according to individual real-world practice criteria and total real-world practice criteria scores, reflecting the extent to which PMT was delivered by non-specialist therapists, to a clinic-referred population, in a routine setting, and as part of a routine service. Meta-analysis revealed a significant overall advantage for PMT compared with waitlist control conditions. Subgroup analyses did not demonstrate significant differences in effect size estimates according to the total number of real-world practice criteria met by studies. Moreover, no consistent relationships were found between specific practice criteria and effect size estimates. In conclusion, PMT appears to be an effective treatment for children with disruptive behavior problems. There was no clear evidence that conducting PMT in real-world practice contexts is a deterrent to achieving effective child behavior outcomes, although relative advantage to "usual care" was not directly examined and the power of the analysis was limited as a result of significant heterogeneity. More research is needed to investigate whether this finding is generalizable to other psychological interventions. Suggestions are also made for developing more differentiated criteria to assist with evaluating the specific applicability of research evidence to different care providers.

Traditionally, the management of bleeding trauma patients has included early rapid fluid replacement on scene. However, evidence shows that a delay to definitive treatment (control of bleeding) may be harmful and UK policy advocates minimal delay on scene with intravenous fluids being administered in transit to hospitals. This paper systematically reviews the evidence for administering fluids in pre-hospital trauma patients with no head injury. Randomized controlled trials comparing immediate and delayed fluid replacement were sought using formal search strategies. Study selection, quality assessment and data extraction were performed independently by two reviewers using pre-defined criteria. We found no evidence to suggest that pre-hospital fluid administration is beneficial. There is some evidence that it may be harmful and that patients do comparatively well when fluids are withheld. However, this evidence is not conclusive, particularly for blunt trauma, and is not sufficient to disprove current UK policy, which recommends hypotensive resuscitation. © 2006 Sage Publications.

Objectives To determine the role of autoantibody tests for autoimmune diseases in children with newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes mellitus. Data sources MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library. Citation lists of included studies were scanned and relevant professional and patient websites reviewed. Laboratories and manufacturers were contacted to identify ongoing or unpublished research. Review methods Following scoping searches on thyroid and coeliac autoantibodies, a systematic review of autoantibody tests for diagnosis of coeliac disease was carried out. Studies were included where cohorts of untreated patients with unknown disease status were included, all patients had undergone the reference test (biopsy) and antibody tests, and sensitivity and specificity were reported or calculable. Selected studies were then evaluated against a quality checklist. Summary statistics of diagnostic accuracy, i.e. sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios and diagnostic odds ratios, were calculated for all studies. A decision analytic model was developed to evaluate the cost utility of screening for coeliac disease at diagnosis of diabetes. Results All antibody tests for diagnosis of coeliac disease showed reasonably good diagnostic test accuracy. Studies reported variable measures of test accuracy, which may be due to aspects of study quality, differences in the tests and their execution in the laboratories, different populations and reference standards. The decision analytic model indicated screening for coeliac disease at diagnosis of diabetes was cost-effective. Sensitivity analyses exploring variations in the cost and disutility of gluten-free diet, the utilities attached to treated and untreated coeliac disease and the decrease in life expectancy associated with treated and untreated coeliac disease did substantially affect the cost-effectiveness of the screening strategies considered. Conclusions In terms of test accuracy in testing for coeliac disease, immunoglobulin A (IgA) anti-endomysium is the most accurate test. If an enzyme-linked immunoassay test was required, which may be more suitable for screening purposes as it can be semi-automated, testing for IgA tissue transglutaminase is likely to be most accurate. The decision analytic model shows that the most accurate tests combined with confirmatory biopsy are the most cost-effective, whilst combinations of tests add little or no further value. There is limited information regarding test accuracy in screening populations with diabetes, and there is some uncertainty over whether the test characteristics would remain the same. Further research is required regarding the role of screening in silent coeliac disease and regarding long-term outcomes and complications of untreated coeliac disease.

Introduction: Administration of high ratios of plasma to packed red blood cells is a routine practice for in-hospital trauma resuscitation. Military and civilian emergency teams are increasingly carrying prehospital blood products (PHBP) for trauma resuscitation. This study systematically reviewed the clinical literature to determine the extent to which the available evidence supports this practice. Methods: Bibliographic databases and other sources were searched to July 2015 using keywords and index terms related to the intervention, setting, and condition. Standard systematic review methodology aimed at minimizing bias was used for study selection, data extraction, and quality assessment (protocol registration PROSPERO: CRD42014013794). Synthesis was mainly narrative with random effects model meta-analysis limited to mortality outcomes. Results: No prospective comparative or randomized studies were identified. Sixteen case series and 11 comparative studies were included in the review. Seven studies included mixed populations of trauma and non-trauma patients. Twenty-five of 27 studies provided only very low quality evidence. No association between PHBP and survival was found (OR for mortality: 1.29, 95% CI: 0.84–1.96, P = 0.24). A single study showed improved survival in the first 24 h. No consistent physiological or biochemical benefit was identified, nor was there evidence of reduced in-hospital transfusion requirements. Transfusion reactions were rare, suggesting the short-term safety of PHBP administration. Conclusions: While PHBP resuscitation appears logical, the clinical literature is limited, provides only poor quality evidence, and does not demonstrate improved outcomes. No conclusions as to efficacy can be drawn. The results of randomized controlled trials are awaited.

Background With an ageing population, the incidence of hip fractures requiring surgery is increasing. Post-operative delirium is common following hip fracture surgery. Delirium is associated with high mortality and morbidity, poor long-term functional outcomes and institutionalisation. There is some evidence to suggest that perioperative intervention, specifically the anaesthetic technique employed, may reduce the incidence of delirium in this population. The aim of this systematic review is to investigate the impact of anaesthesia type on post-operative delirium. Method We will conduct a systematic literature review using Embase, MEDLINE, CINAHL and the Cochrane Library (CENTRAL) bibliographic databases and the ZETOC and Web of Science websites. Authors of these trials will be invited to contribute unpublished data. PROSPERO register and clinical trial registers will also be searched to identify any ongoing reviews and trials. Eligible studies will assess the incidence of post-operative delirium in patients having regional or general anaesthesia for hip fracture surgery. The primary outcome of interest will be post-operative delirium; secondary outcomes will include mortality, measures of functional outcome, quality of life, length of hospital stay, discharge location and adverse events. Two reviewers will independently screen references identified by electronic literature searches. Two independent reviewers will extract data from studies fulfilling our inclusion criteria using a piloted data extraction form. Methodological quality and bias of included randomised controlled trials will be assessed using the ‘Cochrane Collaborations tool for assessing risk of bias’; for non-randomised studies, this will be assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale. Data on similar outcomes will be pooled when possible. Where possible, meta-analysis will be undertaken using Review Manager (RevMan version 5.3) software. Discussion This systematic review will provide an updated evidence base with which to guide clinical practice and research for this group of challenging patients. If the anaesthetic technique employed is shown to reduce the incidence of post-operative cognition dysfunction, then this may lead to a change in evidence-based practice, influence future guidelines and support further randomised controlled trial research. There is no known effective treatment for delirium, creating the urgent need for research into delirium prevention. Systematic review registration PROSPERO CRD42015020166 Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13643-016-0246-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Background Non-union affects up to 10% of fractures and is associated with substantial morbidity. There is currently no single effective therapy for the treatment or prevention of non-union. Potential treatments are currently selected for clinical trials based on results from limited animal studies, with no attempt to compare results between therapies to determine which have the greatest potential to treat non-union. Aim The aim of this systematic review was to define the range of therapies under investigation at the preclinical stage for the prevention or treatment of fracture non-union. Additionally, through meta-analysis, it aimed to identify the most promising therapies for progression to clinical investigation. Methods MEDLINE and Embase were searched from 1St January 2004 to 10th April 2017 for controlled trials evaluating an intervention to prevent or treat fracture non-union. Data regarding the model used, study intervention and outcome measures were extracted, and risk of bias assessed. Results Of 5,171 records identified, 197 papers describing 204 therapies were included. Of these, the majority were only evaluated once (179/204, 88%), with chitosan tested most commonly (6/204, 3%). Substantial variation existed in model design, length of survival and duration of treatment, with results poorly reported. These factors, as well as a lack of consistently used objective outcome measures, precluded meta-analysis. Conclusion This review highlights the variability and poor methodological reporting of current non-union research. The authors call for a consensus on the standardisation of animal models investigating non-union, and suggest journals apply stringent criteria when considering animal work for publication.

BackgroundThe use of aspirin is well established for secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease. However, a proportion of patients suffer repeat cardiovascular events despite being prescribed aspirin treatment. It is uncertain whether or not this is due to an inherent inability of aspirin to sufficiently modify platelet activity. This report aims to investigate whether or not insufficient platelet function inhibition by aspirin (‘aspirin resistance‘), as defined using platelet function tests (PFTs), is linked to the occurrence of adverse clinical outcomes, and further, whether or not patients at risk of future adverse clinical events can be identified through PFTs.ObjectivesTo review systematically the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness evidence regarding the association between PFT designation of ‘aspirin resistance’ and the risk of adverse clinical outcome(s) in patients prescribed aspirin therapy. To undertake exploratory model-based cost-effectiveness analysis on the use of PFTs.Data sourcesBibliographic databases (e.g. MEDLINE from inception and EMBASE from 1980), conference proceedings and ongoing trial registries up to April 2012.MethodsStandard systematic review methods were used for identifying clinical and cost studies. A risk-of-bias assessment tool was adapted from checklists for prognostic and diagnostic studies. (Un)adjusted odds and hazard ratios for the association between ‘aspirin resistance’, for different PFTs, and clinical outcomes are presented; however, heterogeneity between studies precluded pooling of results. A speculative economic model of a PFT and change of therapy strategy was developed.ResultsOne hundred and eight relevant studies using a variety of PFTs, 58 in patients on aspirin monotherapy, were analysed in detail. Results indicated that some PFTs may have some prognostic utility, i.e. a trend for more clinical events to be associated with groups classified as ‘aspirin resistant’. Methodological and clinical heterogeneity prevented a quantitative summary of prognostic effect. Study-level effect sizes were generally small and absolute outcome risk was not substantially different between ‘aspirin resistant’ and ‘aspirin sensitive’ designations.No studies on the cost-effectiveness of PFTs for ‘aspirin resistance’ were identified. Based on assumptions of PFTs being able to accurately identify patients at high risk of clinical events and such patients benefiting from treatment modification, the economic model found that a test–treat strategy was likely to be cost-effective. However, neither assumption is currently evidence based.LimitationsPoor or incomplete reporting of studies suggests a potentially large volume of inaccessible data. Analyses were confined to studies on patients prescribed aspirin as sole antiplatelet therapy at the time of PFT. Clinical and methodological heterogeneity across studies precluded meta-analysis. Given the lack of robust data the economic modelling was speculative.ConclusionsAlthough evidence indicates that some PFTs may have some prognostic value, methodological and clinical heterogeneity between studies and different approaches to analyses create confusion and inconsistency in prognostic results, and prevented a quantitative summary of their prognostic effect. Protocol-driven and adequately powered primary studies are needed, using standardised methods of measurements to evaluate the prognostic ability of each test in the same population(s), and ideally presenting individual patient data. For any PFT to inform individual risk prediction, it will likely need to be considered in combination with other prognostic factors, within a prognostic model.Study registrationThis study is registered as PROSPERO 2012:CRD42012002151.FundingThe National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Objectives:The aim of this study was to evaluate the success of search strategies in retrieving key documents for a technology assessment report (TAR) on a social care topic.Methods:This study measured the differential yield of relevant studies from various information sources and evaluated strategies in different databases, with particular reference to capturing randomized controlled trials (RCTs) as a study design.Results:A combination of four major databases would have found all thirty-two key references. One database alone would have found 78 percent, with another two each locating 59 percent. Sixteen percent of the trials were unique references. In non–health care databases, more sensitive search strategies would have resulted in a higher yield of relevant studies, in part due to inconsistent indexing and in part to attempts to restrict searches to RCTs. Although additional terms could be used to increase the sensitivity of the original strategies, this raises the question of trading off time against exhaustiveness, given the greater number of irrelevant references likely to be retrieved.Conclusions:A successful search for evidence on this social care topic would be possible using a combination of MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library and PsycINFO, supplemented by only limited use of supplementary databases. In areas such as social care where evidence-based research is not yet well established, attempts to replicate searches based on study design do not seem to be advisable, although this may be an area for future research.

Background Severe allergic rhinitis uncontrolled by conventional medication can substantially affect quality of life. Immunotherapy involves administering increasing doses of a specific allergen, with the aim of reducing sensitivity and symptomatic reactions. Recent meta-analyses have concluded that both subcutaneous immunotherapy (SCIT) and sublingual immunotherapy (SLIT) are more effective than placebo in reducing symptoms. It is uncertain which route of administration is more effective and whether or not treatment is cost-effective. Objective To determine the comparative clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of SCIT and SLIT for seasonal allergic rhinitis in adults and children. Data sources Electronic databases {MEDLINE, EMBASE, The Cochrane Library [Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL)], NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED)} and trial registries (from inception up to April 2011). Review methods Standard systematic review methods were used for study selection, data extraction and quality assessment. Double-blind randomised, placebo-controlled trials of SCIT or SLIT, or of SCIT compared with SLIT, and economic evaluations were included. Meta-analysis and indirect comparison meta-analysis and meta-regression were carried out. A new economic model was constructed to estimate cost-utility. Results Meta-analyses found statistically significant effects for SCIT and SLIT compared with placebo across a number of outcome measures and for the vast majority of subgroup analyses (type and amount of allergen, duration of treatment). There was less evidence for children, but some results in favour of SLIT were statistically significant. Indirect comparisons did not provide conclusive results in favour of either SCIT or SLIT. Economic modelling suggested that, when compared with symptomatic treatment (ST), both SCIT and SLIT may become cost-effective at a threshold of £20,000-30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) from around 6 years, or 5 years for SCIT compared with SLIT (NHS and patient perspective). Limitations It is uncertain to what extent changes in the outcome measures used in the trials translate into clinically meaningful benefits. Cost-effectiveness estimates are based on a simple model, limited data and a number of assumptions, and should be seen as indicative only. Conclusions A benefit from both SCIT and SLIT compared with placebo has been consistently demonstrated, but the extent of this effectiveness in terms of clinical benefit is unclear. Both SCIT and SLIT may be cost-effective compared with ST from around 6 years (threshold of £20,000-30,000 per QALY). Further research is needed to establish the comparative effectiveness of SCIT compared with SLIT and to provide more robust cost-effectiveness estimates. Funding The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Background Severe allergic rhinitis uncontrolled by pharmacotherapy can adversely affect quality of life. Both subcutaneous immunotherapy (SCIT) and sublingual immunotherapy (SLIT) have demonstrated effectiveness in this patient group; however, it remains uncertain which route of administration is more effective. Objectives We sought to update existing systematic reviews on the clinical effectiveness of SCIT and SLIT versus placebo, to undertake a systematic review of head-to-head trials, and to compare the relative effectiveness of SCIT and SLIT in an adjusted indirect comparison. Methods Standard systematic review methods aimed at minimizing bias were used. Double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trials of SCIT or SLIT or trials of SCIT versus SLIT were included. Meta-analysis and indirect comparison meta-analysis with meta-regression were performed. Results Updated meta-analyses confirmed statistically significant benefits for SCIT and SLIT compared with placebo in adults and, to a lesser extent, in children. Only 1 head-to-head trial met the inclusion criteria; both this and the indirect comparisons did not provide conclusive results in favor of either SCIT or SLIT based on symptom-medication or quality-of-life scores. There was a trend toward favoring SCIT for symptom and medication scores. Conclusions Although there is clear evidence of effectiveness of both SCIT and SLIT, superiority of one mode of administration over the other could not be consistently demonstrated through indirect comparison, and further research is needed to establish the comparative effectiveness of SCIT versus SLIT.

Background: Crohn's disease (CD) is a severe, lifelong disease characterised by inflammation of the gastrointestinal mucosa. The impact on patients and society is high as ill health can be lifelong and can negatively affect patients' quality of life. Costs to the NHS are high, particularly for patients needing hospitalisation. Conventional treatment pathways are complex. More recently, a group of drugs called tumour necrosis factor (TNF) inhibitors (anti-TNF-alpha agents) have been evaluated for their effectiveness in CD. One of these, infliximab, is currently recommended by the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE; 2002) for patients with severe, active CD where patients are refractory to or intolerant of conventional treatment.Objectives: To investigate whether there is evidence for greater clinical effectiveness or cost-effectiveness for either adalimumab or infliximab.Data sources: Cochrane Library (Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials) 2007 Issue 2; MEDLINE (Ovid) 2000 to May/June 2007; MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations (Ovid) 4 June and 26 June 2007; EMBASE (Ovid) 2000 to May/June 2007. The European Medicines Agency, the US Food and Drug Administration and other relevant websites.Review methods: Standard systematic review methods were used for study identification and selection, data extraction and quality assessment. Only randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing adalimumab or infliximab with standard treatment (placebo), RCTs comparing adalimumab with infliximab, or RCTs comparing different dosing regimens of either adalimumab or infliximab in adults and children with moderate-to-severe active CD intolerant or resistant to conventional treatment were eligible for inclusion. A systematic review of published studies on the cost and cost-effectiveness of adalimumab and infliximab was undertaken. The economic models of cost-effectiveness submitted by the manufacturers of both drugs were critically appraised and, where appropriate, rerun using parameter inputs based on the evidence identified by the authors of the technology asessment report. A de novo Markov state transition model was constructed to calculate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for adalimumab and infliximab therapy compared with standard care.Results: Based on 11 trials, there was evidence from both induction and maintenance trials that both adalimumab and infliximab therapy were beneficial compared with placebo (standard care) for adults with moderate-to-severe CD and, for infliximab, for adults with fistulising CD; results were statistically significant for some time points. Between 6% and 24% (adalimumab), and 21% and 44% (infliximab) more patients achieved remission with anti-TNF-alpha antibodies than with placebo in the induction trials. Between 24% and 29% (adalimumab), and 14% and 24% (infliximab) more patients achieved remission with anti-TNF-alpha antibodies in the two large maintenance trials at reported follow-up. In fistulising CD, between 29% and 42% (induction trial) and 23% (maintenance trial) more patients achieved a > 50% reduction in fistulas with infliximab than with placebo at reported follow-up. There was no direct evidence to show that 'responders' were more likely to benefit from treatment than 'non-responders' in the longer term. Few differences were found between treatment and standard care arms for selected adverse events, though high proportions of scheduled crossovers resulted in a lack of a true placebo group in most of the maintenance trials. No published studies on the cost-effectiveness of adalimumab were identified. The four independently funded studies identified for infliximab suggested high cost-effectiveness ratios [all above 50,000 pound/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) for non-fistulising disease and all above 100,000 pound/QALY for fistulising disease]. A budget impact assessment suggested that total cost to the NHS in England and Wales for induction in severe disease only could range between 17M pound and 92M pound and for maintenance for 1 year between 140M pound and 200M pound.Limitations: Regarding clinical effectiveness, there were concerns about the trial design and lack of clarity, which may have affected interpretation of results. None of the trials matched exactly the licence indications or NICE guidance, which specify the use of these drugs in patients with 'severe' disease. All trials were multicentre, and applicability to UK populations, particularly in terms of standard care being provided and in terms of patients having failed or having become intolerant to conventional treatment, was uncertain. The published economic models relied heavily on little information and data from small samples.Conclusions: Anti-TNF therapy with adalimumab or infliximab may have a beneficial effect compared with standard care on outcome measures for induction and maintenance. The findings were that for induction, both adalimumab and infliximab are cost-effective (dominant relative to standard care) in the management of severe CD, and adalimumab (but not infliximab) is cost-effective for moderate CD, according to limits generally accepted by NICE. On the basis of the analysis presented here, neither drug is likely to be cost-effective as maintenance therapy for moderate or severe disease. Perhaps, most importantly, the analysis reflected the fact that a substantial number of patients would achieve remission under standard care and that the incidence of relapse among those in remission was such that maintenance therapy would have to show greater effectiveness than at present and/or be much less costly than it currently is in order to reach the levels of generally accepted cost-effectiveness. Any future trials need to be designed to meet the particular challenges of measuring and quantifying benefit in this patient group.

Background NIV is very effective when used acutely in hospital during acute exacerbations of COPD, however, evidence supporting its use in a home setting for more stable COPD patients is limited. In the UK domiciliary NIV is considered by many clinicians on health economic grounds in patients after three hospital admissions for acute hypercapnic respiratory failure. Previous systematic reviews of domiciliary NIV have been limited in scope and required updating. Methods Standard systematic review methods were used for identifying relevant clinical and cost-effectiveness studies of any appropriate design assessing NIV compared to usual care, or comparing different types of NIV. Risk of bias was assessed and checked. Primary effectiveness outcomes (mortality, hospitalisations, exacerbations and quality-of-life) were combined using random effects meta-analysis. Results were grouped into patients given NIV within 6 weeks of a hospital admission requiring inpatient NIV and those given NIV when stable. Results Thirty controlled effectiveness studies were identified reporting a variety of outcomes, together with 65 uncontrolled studies. Benefit from NIV in terms of survival and hospital admissions in controlled studies was variable, and where present appeared most marked in post-hospital patients (based on limited evidence). For more stable patients, a modest volume of evidence found no benefit from NIV for survival and some non-significant beneficial trends for hospitalisations and quality-of life. No conclusions could be drawn regarding potential benefit from different types of NIV due to limited study sizes and heterogeneity. Conclusions Domiciliary NIV has greatest effect when used after a hypercapnic exacerbation and might improve hospitalisation rates and mortality in this group of patients. There is no benefit if used in stable, normocapnic patients. This abstract summarises independent research funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) under its HTA Programme (Ref 11/27/01). The views expressed are those of the author (s) and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health.

Background Conduct problems are common, disabling and costly. The prognosis for children with conduct problems is poor, with outcomes in adulthood including criminal behaviour, alcoholism, drug abuse, domestic violence, child abuse and a range of psychiatric disorders. There has been a rapid expansion of group based parent-training programmes for the treatment of children with conduct problems in a number of countries over the past 10 years. Existing reviews of parent training have methodological limitations such as inclusion of non-randomised studies, the absence of investigation for heterogeneity prior to meta-analysis or failure to report confidence intervals. The objective of the current study was to systematically review randomised controlled trials of parenting programmes for the treatment of children with conduct problems. Methods Standard systematic review methods were followed including duplicate inclusion decisions, data extraction and quality assessment. Twenty electronic databases from the fields of medicine, psychology, social science and education were comprehensively searched for RCTs and systematic reviews to February 2006. Inclusion criteria were: randomised controlled trial; of structured, repeatable parenting programmes; for parents/carers of children up to the age of 18 with a conduct problem; and at least one measure of child behaviour. Meta-analysis and qualitative synthesis were used to summarise included studies. Results 57 RCTs were included. Studies were small with an average group size of 21. Meta-analyses using both parent (SMD -0.67; 95% CI: -0.91, -0.42) and independent (SMD -0.44; 95% CI: -0.66, -0.23) reports of outcome showed significant differences favouring the intervention group. There was insufficient evidence to determine the relative effectiveness of different approaches to delivering parenting programmes. Conclusion Parenting programmes are an effective treatment for children with conduct problems. The relative effectiveness of different parenting programmes requires further research.

Objectives: To determine the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the administration of intravenous enzyme replacement therapy (ERT) to symptomatic patients for the prevention of long-term damage and symptoms in Fabry's disease and in mucopolysaccharidosis type 1 (MPS1). Data sources: Electronic databases from inception up to mid-2004. Contact with clinical experts. Review methods: Relevant studies were identified and assessed using recommended quality criteria. Results: The results suggested beneficial effects of ERT for Fabry's disease on measures of pain, cardiovascular function and some end-points reflecting neurosensory function. Renal function appeared to be stabilised by ERT. At present there are no utility-related health-related quality of life data on which to assess the relative health gain of ERT in MPS1. In order to be able to demonstrate the full extent of health gain from treatment, it was necessary to review the natural history of untreated patients in each disease in order to try to estimate the health loss prevented. The published information for Fabry's disease tallied with descriptions of a multi-system, life-threatening disorder particularly involving kidney, heart and brain with individual patients exhibiting many manifestations. The fragmentary information reviewed in 16 studies relevant to the natural history of MPS1 did not generate a coherent picture of disease progression and could provide little added value to published narrative reviews. For Fabry's disease, the mean cost per patient (50 kg) treated is around pounds sterling 85,000 per annum in England and Wales. The cost per patient varies considerably by dose. No published evidence reporting an economic evaluation of ERT for Fabry's disease was identified by this review. A dynamic decision model was constructed based on a birth cohort of male patients who are followed up until death. Owing to lack of information reported in the literature, many assumptions had to be applied. The key assumptions were that ERT returns patients to full health and a normal life expectancy. As far as possible, all assumptions favoured rather than detracted from the value of ERT. ERT was assumed to restore patients to full health in the base case. The estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) in the base case was pounds sterling 252,000 per QALY (agalsidase beta). Univariate sensitivity analysis around the key assumptions produced ICERs ranging from pounds sterling 602,000 to pounds sterling 241,000. The base case unit cost of ERT was taken as pounds sterling 65.1/mg based on the cost of agalsidase beta. The unit cost would have had to be reduced to pounds sterling 9 to obtain an ICER of pounds sterling 30,000 per QALY. For MPS1, the mean cost per child patient (20 kg) treated is approximately pounds sterling 95,000 and an adult (70 kg) around pounds sterling 335,000 per annum in England and Wales. The cost per patient varies considerably by dose. There is no published evidence reporting an economic evaluation of ERT for MPS1 and no study was identified that reported the quality of life of MPS1 patients within a utility format. Furthermore, no or minimal information of the severity and rate of change of clinical manifestations of disease or the impact of ERT on these factors was identified. Information on the effect of ERT on mortality is also lacking owing to the relatively short time that the treatment has been available. Given this lack of data, it was not possible to develop a cost-effectiveness model of ERT treatment for MPS1 as the model would consist almost completely of assumptions based on no published evidence, leading to an incremental cost per QALY result that would be meaningless. Conclusions: Although ERT for treating the 'average' patient with Fabry's disease exceeds the normal upper threshold for cost-effectiveness seen in NHS policy decisions by over sixfold, and the value for MPS1 is likely to be of a similar order of magnitude, clinicians and the manufacturers argue that, as the disease is classified as an orphan disease under European Union legislation, it has special status, and the NHS has no option but to provide ERT. More information is required before the generalisability of the findings can be determined. Although data from the UK have been used wherever possible, this was very thin indeed. Nonetheless, even large errors in assumptions made will not reduce the ICER to anywhere near the upper level of treatments usually considered cost-effective. In order to overcome limited evidence on the natural history of the disease and the clinical effectiveness of the intervention, the establishment of disease-specific data registries is suggested to facilitate the process of technology assessment and improving patient care. These registries should attempt to include all affected patients in the UK, and collect longitudinal patient level data on clinically relevant problems, interventions received and quality of life in a utility format.

Objectives: To assess the clinical and cost-effectiveness of parent training programmes for the treatment of children with conduct disorder ( CD) up to the age of 18 years. Data sources: Electronic databases. Review methods: For the effectiveness review, relevant studies were identified and evaluated. A quantitative synthesis of behavioural outcomes across trials was also undertaken using two approaches: vote counting and meta-analysis. The economic analysis consisted of reviewing previous economic/cost evaluations of parent training/education programmes and the economic information within sponsor's submissions; carrying out a detailed exploration of costs of parent training/education programmes; and a de novo modelling assessment of the cost-effectiveness of parent training/education programmes. The potential budget impact to the health service of implementing such programmes was also considered. Results: Many of the 37 randomised controlled trials that met the review inclusion and exclusion criteria were assessed as being of poor methodological quality. Studies were clinically heterogeneous in terms of the population, type of parent training/education programme and content, setting, delivery, length and child behaviour outcomes used. Both vote counting and meta-analysis revealed a consistent trend across all studies towards short-term effectiveness ( up to 4 months) of parent training/education programmes ( compared with control) as measured by a change in child behaviour. Pooled estimates showed a statistically significant improvement on the Eyberg Child Behaviour Inventory frequency and intensity scales, the Dyadic Parent - Child Interaction Coding System and the Child Behaviour Checklist. No studies reported a statistically significant result favouring control over parent training/education programmes. There were few statistically significant differences between different parent training/education programmes, although there was a trend towards more intensive interventions ( e. g. longer contact hours, additional child involvement) being more effective. The cost of treating CD is high, with costs incurred by many agencies. A recent study suggested that by age 28, costs for individuals with CD were around 10 times higher than for those with no problems, with a mean cost of 70,019 pound. Criminality incurs the greatest cost, followed by educational provision, foster and residential care and state benefits. Only a small proportion of these costs fall on health services. Using a 'bottom-up' costing approach, the costs per family of providing parent training/education programmes range from 629 pound to 3839 pound depending on the type and style of delivery. Using the conservative assumption that there are no cost savings from treatment, a total lifetime quality of life gain of 0.1 would give a cost per quality-adjusted life-year of between 38,393 pound and 6288 pound depending on the type of programme delivery and setting. Conclusions: Parent training/education programmes appear to be an effective and potentially cost-effective therapy for children with CD. However, the relative effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of different models ( such as therapy intensity and setting) require further investigation. Further research is required on the impact of parent training/education programmes on the quality of life of children with CD and their parents/carers, as well as on longer term child outcomes.

OBJECTIVES: To systematically review the evidence on the effectiveness (in terms of mortality and morbidity) of prehospital intravenous (i.v.) fluid replacement, compared with no i.v. fluid replacement or delayed fluid replacement, in trauma patients with no head injury who have haemorrhage-induced hypotension due to trauma. DATA SOURCES: Electronic databases, relevant websites, handsearching, expert contacts. REVIEW METHODS: Search strategies were defined to identify randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and previous systematic reviews relating to the use of i.v. fluids in a prehospital (or other) setting compared to no fluids or delayed fluids. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were applied to identified studies, and key quality criteria of included studies were checked. Data were extracted independently by two reviewers. Economic evaluations were also systematically sought and appraised. RESULTS: Four relevant RCTs were identified, three of which were poorly designed and/or conducted. One good-quality RCT suggested that i.v. fluids may be harmful in patients with penetrating injuries. No evidence was found on the relative effectiveness of i.v. fluids in patients with blunt versus penetrating trauma. No reliable evidence was found from systematic reviews to suggest that a particular type of fluid is more beneficial compared to another type, although there was a trend favouring crystalloids over colloids. The relative costs of using i.v. fluids versus not using them were found to be very similar and changes in the use of fluids would therefore have no cost consequences for the ambulance service. A more detailed cost-effectiveness analysis would require further information on the relative consequences (mortality, morbidity) of different resuscitation strategies. CONCLUSIONS: The review found no evidence to suggest that prehospital i.v. fluid resuscitation is beneficial, and some evidence that it may be harmful. This evidence is however not conclusive, particularly for blunt trauma. A UK Consensus Statement, and to a lesser extent the UK Joint Royal Colleges Ambulance Liaison Committee guidelines represent a more cautious approach to fluid management than previously advocated and are therefore consistent with the limited evidence base. Further research is required on hypotensive (cautious) resuscitation versus delayed or no fluid replacement, particularly in blunt trauma. There is also a need for an improvement in the quality of data collection and analysis of routinely collected ambulance call-out data.

Background Dual chamber pacing or single chamber atrial pacing ('physiologic' pacing) is believed to have an advantage over single chamber ventricular pacing in that it resembles cardiac physiology more closely by maintaining atrioventricular (AV) synchrony and dominance of the sinus node, which in turn may reduce cardiovascular morbidity and mortality thus contributing to patient survival and quality of life. However, a significant proportion of pacemakers currently implanted are single chamber ventricular pacemakers. Objectives The objective of this review was to assess the short- and long-term clinical effectiveness of dual chamber pacemakers compared to single chamber ventricular pacemakers in adults with AV block, sick sinus syndrome or both. An additional objective was to assess separately any potential differences in effectiveness between dual chamber pacing and single chamber atrial pacing. The clinical effectiveness of single chamber atrial pacing versus single chamber ventricular pacing was not examined. Search methods The Cochrane Controlled Trials Register (The Cochrane Library Issue 3, 2002), MEDLINE (1966 to 2002), EMBASE (1980 to 2002) and the Science Citation Index (1980 to 2002) were searched on 19th August 2002. Citation lists and web sites were checked and researchers in the field contacted. Selection criteria Parallel group or crossover randomised controlled trials of at least 48 hours duration comparing dual chamber pacing and single chamber ventricular pacing, and investigating cardiovascular morbidity, mortality, patient related quality of life, exercise capacity and complication rates. Data collection and analysis Data was extracted onto pre-piloted data extraction forms. Quality assessment was undertaken using a checklist, with a sub-sample of quality data independently extracted by a second reviewer. Where appropriate data was available, meta-analysis was performed. Where meta-analysis was not possible, the number of studies showing a positive, neutral or negative direction of effect and statistical significance were simply counted. Main results Five parallel and 26 crossover randomised controlled trials were identified. The quality of reporting was found to be poor. Pooled data from parallel studies shows a statistically non-significant preference for physiologic pacing (primarily dual chamber pacing) for the prevention of stroke, heart failure and mortality, and a statistically significant beneficial effect regarding the prevention of atrial fibrillation (odds ratio (OR) 0.79, 95% CI 0.68 to 0.93). Both parallel and crossover studies favour dual chamber pacing with regard to pacemaker syndrome (parallel: Peto OR 0.11, 95% CI 0.08 to 0.14; crossover: standardised mean difference (SMD) -0.74, 95% CI - 0.95 to -0.52). Pooled data from crossover studies shows a statistically significant trend towards dual chamber pacing being more favourable in terms of exercise capacity (SMD -0.24, 95% CI -0.03 to -0.45). No individual studies reported a significantly more favourable outcome with single chamber ventricular pacing. Authors' conclusions This review shows a trend towards greater effectiveness with dual chamber pacing compared to single chamber ventricular pacing, which supports the current British Pacing and Electrophysiology Group's Guidelines regarding atrioventricular block. Additional randomised controlled trial evidence from ongoing trials in this area will further inform the debate.

This abstract summarises independent research funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) under its HTA Programme (Ref 11/27/01). The views expressed are those of the author (s) and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health. Background NIV is an established treatment for the management of acute exacerbation of COPD but less is known about the effectiveness of NIV in the home setting. Many clinicians consider domiciliary NIV to be cost-effective in patients that have experienced three or more exacerbations however no economic evaluations, using decision modelling have been conducted. Methods The findings of a systematic clinical review of the clinical effectiveness of domiciliary NIV in COPD were applied in a Markov model, to estimate cost-effectiveness, from a UK perspective, when compared to usual care. Outcomes were measured in Quality Adjust Life Years (QALYs). Two end-stage COPD populations were considered; patients that were stable for at least twelve weeks (stable population) and those recently discharged for exacerbation (post-admission population). Given the uncertainty around the effect of domiciliary NIV on admissions and mortality in both populations, extensive sensitivity analysis was conducted to quantify and likelihood of NIV being cost-effective at a thresholds of £30,000 per QALY and the model’s sensitivity to key parameters. Results This model indicated that domiciliary NIV is unlikely to be cost-effective in stable populations but is more likely to be cost-effective post-admission. However, there was considerable uncertainty around the results for both populations. The model was most sensitive to changes in the risk ratio for admission and the duration of the effect but was also sensitive to changes in baseline risk of admissions. Conclusion This model indicates that domiciliary NIV is unlikely to be cost-effective in stable patients but maybe cost-effective in patients with a history of admissions. This speculative economic model describes the uncertainty around these conclusions.

Background Allergies cause a considerable burden to both its sufferers and the National Health Service. There is growing interest in acupuncture as a treatment for a range of conditions. Since acupuncture may modulate the immune system it could be a useful treatment for allergic rhinitis (AR) sufferers. We therefore assessed the evidence for the clinical effectiveness of acupuncture in patients with AR by performing a systematic review of the literature. Methods Searches (up to 2007) were conducted in all major databases for randomised controlled trials (RCTs) evaluating the clinical effectiveness of acupuncture in the treatment of AR. No limits were placed on language. Studies were included if they compared acupuncture to a sham or inactive acupuncture treatment (placebo) with or without standard care. Meta-analysis was performed where feasible. Results Seven relevant RCTs were included after screening and application of inclusion and exclusion criteria. The trials were generally of poor quality as assessed by a modified Jadad scale, with the exception of two studies which scored highly. A wide variety of outcomes was measured but most assessed symptom severity on a visual analogue scale. A meta-analysis failed to show any summary benefits of acupuncture treatment for symptom severity scores or serum IgE measures which could not have been accounted for by chance alone. Acupuncture was not associated with any additional adverse events in the trials. Conclusion There is currently insufficient evidence to support or refute the use of acupuncture in patients with AR. A large well conducted RCT, which overcomes identify ed methodological problems in the existing RCTs, would be required to resolve this question.