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IntroductionLow-dose CT (LDCT) screening of high-risk smokers reduces lung cancer (LC) specific mortality. Determining screening eligibility using individualised risk may improve screening effectiveness and reduce harm. Here, we compare the performance of two risk prediction models (PLCOM2012 and Liverpool Lung Project model (LLPv2)) and National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) eligibility criteria in a community-based screening programme.MethodsEver-smokers aged 55–74, from deprived areas of Manchester, were invited to a Lung Health Check (LHC). Individuals at higher risk (PLCOM2012 score ≥1.51%) were offered annual LDCT screening over two rounds. LLPv2 score was calculated but not used for screening selection; ≥2.5% and ≥5% thresholds were used for analysis.ResultsPLCOM2012 ≥1.51% selected 56% (n=1429) of LHC attendees for screening. LLPv2 ≥2.5% also selected 56% (n=1430) whereas NLST (47%, n=1188) and LLPv2 ≥5% (33%, n=826) selected fewer. Over two screening rounds 62 individuals were diagnosed with LC; representing 87% (n=62/71) of 6-year incidence predicted by mean PLCOM2012 score (5.0%). 26% (n=16/62) of individuals with LC were not eligible for screening using LLPv2 ≥5%, 18% (n=11/62) with NLST criteria and 7% (n=5/62) with LLPv2 ≥2.5%. NLST eligible Manchester attendees had 2.5 times the LC detection rate than NLST participants after two annual screens (≈4.3% (n=51/1188) vs 1.7% (n=438/26 309); padjOR 2.50, 95% CI 1.11 to 5.64; p=0.028).ConclusionProspective comparisons of risk prediction tools are required to optimise screening selection in different settings. The PLCOM2012 model may underestimate risk in deprived UK populations; further research focused on model calibration is required.

BackgroundCOPD is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in populations eligible for lung cancer screening. We investigated the role of spirometry in a community-based lung cancer screening programme.MethodsEver smokers, age 55–74, resident in three deprived areas of Manchester were invited to a ‘Lung Health Check’ (LHC) based in convenient community locations. Spirometry was incorporated into the LHCs alongside lung cancer risk estimation (Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Study Risk Prediction Model, 2012 version (PLCOM2012)), symptom assessment and smoking cessation advice. Those at high risk of lung cancer (PLCOM2012 ≥1.51%) were eligible for annual low-dose CT screening over two screening rounds. Airflow obstruction was defined as FEV1/FVCResults99.4% (n=2525) of LHC attendees successfully performed spirometry; mean age was 64.1±5.5, 51% were women, 35% were current smokers. 37.4% (n=944) had airflow obstruction of which 49.7% (n=469) had no previous diagnosis of COPD. 53.3% of those without a prior diagnosis were symptomatic (n=250/469). After multivariate analysis, the detection of airflow obstruction without a prior COPD diagnosis was associated with male sex (adjOR 1.84, 95% CI 1.37 to 2.47; p1/FVC ratio (adjOR 4.19, 95% CI 2.95 to 5.95; padjOR 2.80, 95% CI 1.60 to 8.42; p=0.002).ConclusionsIncorporating spirometry into a community-based targeted lung cancer screening programme is feasible and identifies a significant number of individuals with airflow obstruction who do not have a prior diagnosis of COPD.

Objectives: The impact of lung cancer screening on smoking is unclear, especially in deprived populations who are underrepresented in screening trials. The aim of this observational cohort study was to investigate whether a community-based lung cancer screening programme influenced smoking behaviour and smoking attitude in socio-economically deprived populations. Material and Methods: Ever-smokers, age 55–74, registered at participating General Practices were invited to a community-based Lung Health Check (LHC). This included an assessment of respiratory symptoms, lung cancer risk (PLCOm2012), spirometry and signposting to stop smoking services. Those at high risk (PLCOM2012≥1.51%) were offered annual low-dose CT screening over two rounds. Self-reported smoking status and behaviour were recorded at the LHC and again 12 months later, when attitudes to smoking were also assessed. Results: 919 participants (51% women) were included in the analysis (77% of attendees); median deprivation rank in the lowest decile for England. At baseline 50.3% were current smokers. One-year quit rate was 10.2%, quitting was associated with increased baseline symptoms (adjOR 2.62, 95% CI 1.07–6.41; p = 0.035) but not demographics or screening results. 55% attributed quitting to the LHC. In current smokers, 44% reported the LHC had made them consider stopping, 29% it made them try to stop and 25% made them smoke less whilst only 1.7% and 0.7% said it made them worry less about smoking or think it acceptable to smoke. Conclusions: Our data suggest a community-based lung cancer screening programme in deprived areas positively impacts smoking behaviour, with no evidence of a ‘licence to smoke’ in those screened.

Low-dose CT (LDCT) screening of high-risk smokers reduces lung cancer (LC) specific mortality. Determining screening eligibility using individualised risk may improve screening effectiveness and reduce harm. Here, we compare the performance of two risk prediction models (PLCOEver-smokers aged 55-74, from deprived areas of Manchester, were invited to a Lung Health Check (LHC). Individuals at higher risk (PLCOPLCOProspective comparisons of risk prediction tools are required to optimise screening selection in different settings. The PLCO

Background: In the United States, lung cancer screening aims to detect cancer early in nonsymptomatic current and former smokers. A lung screening pilot service in an area of high lung cancer incidence in the United Kingdom has been designed based on United States trial evidence. However, our understanding of acceptability and reasons for lung screening uptake or decline in a United Kingdom nontrial context are currently limited. Objective: To explore with ever smokers the acceptability of targeted lung screening and uptake decision‐making intentions. Design: Qualitative study using semistructured focus groups and inductive thematic analysis to explore acceptability and uptake decision‐making intentions with people of similar characteristics to lung screening eligible individuals. Setting and participants: Thirty‐three participants (22 ex‐smokers; 11 smokers) men and women, smokers and ex‐smokers, aged 50‐80 were recruited purposively from community and health settings in Manchester, England. Results: Lung screening was widely acceptable to participants. It was seen as offering reassurance about lung health or opportunity for early detection and treatment. Participant's desire to know about their lung health via screening was impacted by perceived benefits; emotions such as worry about a diagnosis and screening tests; practicalities such as accessibility; and smoking‐related issues including perceptions of individual risk and smoking stigma. Discussion: Decision making was multifaceted with indications that current smokers faced higher participation barriers than ex‐smokers. Reducing participation barriers through careful service design and provision of decision support information will be important in lung screening programmes to support informed consent and equitable uptake.

Manchester’s ‘Lung Health Check’ pilot utilised mobile CT scanners in convenient retail locations to deliver lung cancer screening to socioeconomically disadvantaged communities. We assessed whether screening location was an important factor for those attending the service. Location was important for 74.7% (n=701/938) and 23% (n=216/938) reported being less likely to attend an equivalent hospital-based programme. This preference was most common in current smokers (27% current smokers vs 19% former smokers; AdjOR 1.46, 95% CI 1.03 to 2.08, p=0.036) and those in the lowest deprivation quartile (25% lowest quartile vs 17.6% highest quartile; AdjOR 2.0, 95% CI 1.24 to 3.24, p=0.005). Practical issues related to travel were most important in those less willing to attend a hospital-based service, with 83.3% citing at least one travel related barrier to non-attendance. A convenient community-based screening programme may reduce inequalities in screening adherence especially in those at high risk of lung cancer in deprived areas.

Background Previous evaluations of low-dose CT (LDCT) lung cancer screening programmes have taken very different approaches in the design of the informative trials and the methods applied to determine cost-effectiveness. Therefore, it has not been possible to determine if differences in cost-effectiveness are due to different screening approaches or the evaluation methodology. This study reports the findings of an evaluation of the first round of a community-based, LDCT screening pilot Manchester, applying previously published methodology to ensure consistency. Methods Using the economic evaluation method reported in the UKLS trial, applying Manchester specific evidence where possible, we estimate the cost-effectiveness of LDCT for lung cancer. Estimates of the total costs and quality adjusted life years (QALYs) were calculated. Results The Manchester programme cost £663,076, diagnosed 42 patients with lung cancer resulting in a gain in population health of 88.13 discounted life years, equivalent to 65.85 QALYs. This implied an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £10,069/QALY. Conclusions We found the Manchester programme to be a cost-effective use of limited NHS resources. The findings suggest that further research is now needed not as to whether LDCT screening is cost-effective but under what conditions can it improve patient health by the most while remaining cost-effective.

Background The European position on lung cancer screening (LCS) recommends planning for implementation of low-dose computer tomography (LDCT) screening for lung cancer (LC) to start. The Manchester LCS pilot is one of the first NHS screening implementation programmes to take place and publish results. In this abstract we share results from the first incidence round of screening. Methods Details of the baseline round of the Manchester LCS pilot have been previously published.1 In brief, ever smokers, aged 55–74, from deprived areas were invited to a free ‘Lung Health Check’ (LHC) in mobile units located at their local shopping centres. The PLCOm2012 LC risk model was incorporated into the LHCs and those at high risk (PLCOm2012 ≥1.51%) were invited for annual screening starting with an immediate LDCT in a co-located mobile scanner. At baseline, 1384 individuals were screened and 3% had LC diagnosed (80% early stage, I-II). In the second round of screening, the first incidence round, all individuals screened at baseline with no subsequent diagnosis of LC (screening or non-screening) were invited back for an annual LDCT at the same community location. Exclusion included death, other malignancies and CT thorax within 3 months of due screening date. National and GP registries were checked for interval LC diagnosis. Results A total of 1,194 LDCT scans were performed as part of the second round of screening. 29 (2.4%) individuals received a positive scan result of which 19 (1.6%) were diagnosed with LC. 79% of LCs were early stage (I-II). The false positive rate was 0.8% of the screened population and 35% of those with a positive scan result. There were no interval LCs diagnosed at one year. Overall, 61 individuals (4.4%) have been diagnosed with LC (80% early stage) in the first 12 months of the Manchester LCS programme. Conclusion Annual LDCT screening of high risk individuals in this real world LCS implementation pilot continues to identify a significant number of early stage lung cancers amenable to curative treatment. No interval lung cancers were diagnosed between rounds suggesting the baseline selection criteria for screening was appropriate. Reference Crosbie PA, Balata H, et al. Implementing lung cancer screening: Baseline results from a community-based ‘Lung Health Check’ pilot in deprived areas of Manchester. Thorax2018.

We report results from the second annual screening round (T1) of Manchester’s ‘Lung Health Check’ pilot of community-based lung cancer screening in deprived areas (undertaken June to August 2017). Screening adherence was 90% (n=1194/1323): 92% of CT scans were classified negative, 6% indeterminate and 2.5% positive; there were no interval cancers. Lung cancer incidence was 1.6% (n=19), 79% stage I, treatments included surgery (42%, n=9), stereotactic ablative radiotherapy (26%, n=5) and radical radiotherapy (5%, n=1). False-positive rate was 34.5% (n=10/29), representing 0.8% of T1 participants (n=10/1194). Targeted community-based lung cancer screening promotes high screening adherence and detects high rates of early stage lung cancer.

Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in populations eligible for lung cancer screening. The aim of this study was to determine whether a brief CV risk assessment, delivered as part of a targeted community-based lung cancer screening programme, was effective in identifying individuals at high risk who might benefit from primary prevention. Methods: The Manchester Lung Screening Pilot consisted of annual low dose CT (LDCT) over 2 screening rounds, targeted at individuals in deprived areas at high risk of lung cancer (age 55–74 and 6-year risk ≥1.51%, using PLCOM2012 risk model). All participants of the second screening round were eligible to take part in the study. Ten-year CV risk was estimated using QRISK2 in participants without CVD and compared to age (±5 years) and sex matched Health Survey for England (HSE) controls; high risk was defined as QRISK2 score ≥10%. Coronary artery calcification (CAC) was assessed on LDCT scans and compared to QRISK2 score. Results: Seventy-seven percent (n=920/1,194) of screening attendees were included in the analysis; mean age 65.6 ± 5.4 and 50.4% female. QRISK2 and lung cancer risk (PLCOM2012) scores were correlated (r = 0.26, p < 0.001). Median QRISK2 score was 21.1% (IQR 14.9–29.6) in those without established CVD (77.6%, n = 714/920), double that of HSE controls (10.3%, IQR 6.6–16.2; n = 714) (p < 0.001). QRISK2 score was significantly higher in those with CAC (p < 0.001). Screening attendees were 10-fold more likely to be classified high risk (OR 10.2 [95% CI 7.3–14.0]). One third (33.7%, n = 310/920) of all study participants were high risk but not receiving statin therapy for primary CVD prevention. Discussion: Opportunistic CVD risk assessment within a targeted lung cancer screening programme is feasible and is likely to identify a very large number of individuals suitable for primary prevention.

We report baseline results of a community-based, targeted, low-dose CT (LDCT) lung cancer screening pilot in deprived areas of Manchester. Ever smokers, aged 55–74 years, were invited to ‘lung health checks’ (LHCs) next to local shopping centres, with immediate access to LDCT for those at high risk (6-year risk ≥1.51%, PLCOM2012 calculator). 75% of attendees (n=1893/2541) were ranked in the lowest deprivation quintile; 56% were high risk and of 1384 individuals screened, 3% (95% CI 2.3% to 4.1%) had lung cancer (80% early stage) of whom 65% had surgical resection. Taking lung cancer screening into communities, with an LHC approach, is effective and engages populations in deprived areas.

Background Lung cancer (LC) is the commonest cause of cancer-related death in the world. Screening with low-dose computer tomography (LDCT) had been shown to reduce LC specific and all-cause mortality. Benefit is greatest in those at highest risk, such as current smokers from areas of high socio-economic deprivation, yet participation in these ‘hard-to-reach’ populations remains a challenge. The aim of this NHS implementation project was to assess LC screening within the community in deprived areas. Methods Ever smokers, aged 55–74, registered at 14 participating general practitioner (GP) practices in deprived areas of Manchester were invited to attend and have a free ‘Lung Health Check’ (LHC) in a mobile unit located at their local shopping centres. Lung cancer risk score (PLCOM2012), respiratory symptoms and spirometry were assessed as part of the LHC. Those at high risk of LC, i.e., 6 year lung cancer risk ≥1.51%, were offered immediate LDCT in a co-located mobile CT scanner. All active smokers were provided with smoking cessation advice. Results The maximum available capacity of the service was filled within days of going live. A total of 2541 individuals attended for a LHC and consented to data analysis. The mean age was 64.1±5.5 and 51.0% (n=1,296) were female. 74.5% (n=1,893) of participants were ranked in the lowest quintile of deprivation in England. The majority of individuals had left school by the age of 16 (n=2,078; 81.8%), most without gaining any ‘O’ levels (n=1,567; 61.7%). A significant number of participants reported a history of previous respiratory disease (n=566; 22.3%), pervious cancer (n=291; 11.5%), family history of LC (n=553; 21.8%) or asbestos exposure (n=612; 24.1%). 56.2% (n=1,429) qualified for LDCT screening of which 52.8% were active smokers. 46 lung cancers were detected in 42 individuals, a prevalence of 3.0%, of which 80.4% were early stage (I+II). A treatment with curative intent was offered to 89.1% of screen detected cancers. Conclusion Taking lung cancer screening into the community can identify and affect those at most risk, the so-called ‘hard-to-reach’ populations. This Results in a significant stage shift in screen detected lung cancers in deprived populations.