30 results on '"Jan Minx"'
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2. Demand-side climate change mitigation: where do we stand and where do we go?
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Felix Creutzig, Joyashree Roy, and Jan Minx
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Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering ,TD1-1066 ,Environmental sciences ,GE1-350 ,Science ,Physics ,QC1-999 - Abstract
It is now well established that the demand side can contribute substantially to climate change mitigation thus increasing the solution space. The recent IPCC synthesis report for the first time explicitly reflected this class of solutions. Here, we provide an overview of an unique set of 22 review papers published in the focus issue of Environmental Research Letters. We also extract a key set of insights, ranging from the varied but rapidly evolving literature to demand-side mitigation potential, relevance for well-being, and consistent categorization of options across end-use sectors. We find that demand-side approaches to climate change mitigation supplement exclusively technology-focused supply side solutions and, in many cases, comprise system-wide effect contributing to well-being and planetary stability. Review studies cover macro-economics, well-being, and sustainable development goals on the metric side, and investigate consumption-based individual options, urban strategies, transport, building, and food sector potentials, but also the role of the circular economy, material efficiency, and digitalization. Demand-side measures can be categorized into avoid, shift, and improve approaches. Several additional reviews systematically investigate psychological and social approaches and initiatives to foster climate change mitigation. We finally outline important gaps and questions to be tackled in the coming years.
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- 2024
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3. Editorial: Fifty Campbell systematic reviews relevant to the policy response to COVID‐19
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Ariel Aloe, Eric Barends, Douglas Besharov, Zulfiqar Bhutta, Xinsheng ‘Cindy’ Cai, Marie Gaarder, Ruth Garside, Neal Haddaway, Elizabeth Kristjansson, Brandy Maynard, Lorraine Mazerolle, Robyn Mildon, Sarah Miller, Jan Minx, Peter Neyroud, Annette O'Connor, Denise Rousseau, Ashrita Saran, Joann Starks, Gavin Stewart, Jo Thompson Coon, Peter Tugwell, Jeffrey Valentine, Vivian Welch, Oliver Wendt, and Howard White
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Social Sciences - Published
- 2020
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4. Corrigendum: A review of trends and drivers of greenhouse gas emissions by sector from 1990 to 2018 (2021 Environ. Res. Lett. 16 073005)
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William F Lamb, Thomas Wiedmann, Julia Pongratz, Robbie Andrew, Monica Crippa, Jos G J Olivier, Dominik Wiedenhofer, Giulio Mattioli, Alaa Al Khourdajie, Jo House, Shonali Pachauri, Maria Figueroa, Yamina Saheb, Raphael Slade, Klaus Hubacek, Laixiang Sun, Suzana Kahn Ribeiro, Smail Khennas, Stephane de la Rue du Can, Lazarus Chapungu, Steven J Davis, Igor Bashmakov, Hancheng Dai, Shobhakar Dhakal, Xianchun Tan, Yong Geng, Baihe Gu, and Jan Minx
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Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering ,TD1-1066 ,Environmental sciences ,GE1-350 ,Science ,Physics ,QC1-999 - Published
- 2022
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5. Upscaling urban data science for global climate solutions
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Felix Creutzig, Steffen Lohrey, Xuemei Bai, Alexander Baklanov, Richard Dawson, Shobhakar Dhakal, William F. Lamb, Timon McPhearson, Jan Minx, Esteban Munoz, and Brenna Walsh
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adaptation and mitigation ,policies ,politics and governance ,urban systems ,Environmental sciences ,GE1-350 - Abstract
Manhattan, Berlin and New Delhi all need to take action to adapt to climate change and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. While case studies on these cities provide valuable insights, comparability and scalability remain sidelined. It is therefore timely to review the state-of-the-art in data infrastructures, including earth observations, social media data, and how they could be better integrated to advance climate change science in cities and urban areas. We present three routes for expanding knowledge on global urban areas: mainstreaming data collections, amplifying the use of big data and taking further advantage of computational methods to analyse qualitative data to gain new insights. These data-based approaches have the potential to upscale urban climate solutions and effect change at the global scale.
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- 2019
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6. Reviewing the scope and thematic focus of 100 000 publications on energy consumption, services and social aspects of climate change: a big data approach to demand-side mitigation
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Felix Creutzig, Max Callaghan, Anjali Ramakrishnan, Aneeque Javaid, Leila Niamir, Jan Minx, Finn Müller-Hansen, Benjamin Sovacool, Zakia Afroz, Mark Andor, Miklos Antal, Victor Court, Nandini Das, Julio Díaz-José, Friederike Döbbe, Maria J Figueroa, Andrew Gouldson, Helmut Haberl, Andrew Hook, Diana Ivanova, William F Lamb, Nadia Maïzi, Érika Mata, Kristian S Nielsen, Chioma Daisy Onyige, Lucia A Reisch, Joyashree Roy, Pauline Scheelbeek, Mahendra Sethi, Shreya Some, Steven Sorrell, Mathilde Tessier, Tania Urmee, Doris Virág, Can Wan, Dominik Wiedenhofer, and Charlie Wilson
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demand ,services ,climate change mitigation ,IPCC ,behavior ,social norm ,Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering ,TD1-1066 ,Environmental sciences ,GE1-350 ,Science ,Physics ,QC1-999 - Abstract
As current action remains insufficient to meet the goals of the Paris agreement let alone to stabilize the climate, there is increasing hope that solutions related to demand, services and social aspects of climate change mitigation can close the gap. However, given these topics are not investigated by a single epistemic community, the literature base underpinning the associated research continues to be undefined. Here, we aim to delineate a plausible body of literature capturing a comprehensive spectrum of demand, services and social aspects of climate change mitigation. As method we use a novel double-stacked expert—machine learning research architecture and expert evaluation to develop a typology and map key messages relevant for climate change mitigation within this body of literature. First, relying on the official key words provided to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change by governments (across 17 queries), and on specific investigations of domain experts (27 queries), we identify 121 165 non-unique and 99 065 unique academic publications covering issues relevant for demand-side mitigation. Second, we identify a literature typology with four key clusters: policy, housing, mobility, and food/consumption. Third, we systematically extract key content-based insights finding that the housing literature emphasizes social and collective action, whereas the food/consumption literatures highlight behavioral change, but insights also demonstrate the dynamic relationship between behavioral change and social norms. All clusters point to the possibility of improved public health as a result of demand-side solutions. The centrality of the policy cluster suggests that political actions are what bring the different specific approaches together. Fourth, by mapping the underlying epistemic communities we find that researchers are already highly interconnected, glued together by common interests in sustainability and energy demand. We conclude by outlining avenues for interdisciplinary collaboration, synthetic analysis, community building, and by suggesting next steps for evaluating this body of literature.
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- 2021
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7. A review of trends and drivers of greenhouse gas emissions by sector from 1990 to 2018
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William F Lamb, Thomas Wiedmann, Julia Pongratz, Robbie Andrew, Monica Crippa, Jos G J Olivier, Dominik Wiedenhofer, Giulio Mattioli, Alaa Al Khourdajie, Jo House, Shonali Pachauri, Maria Figueroa, Yamina Saheb, Raphael Slade, Klaus Hubacek, Laixiang Sun, Suzana Kahn Ribeiro, Smail Khennas, Stephane de la Rue du Can, Lazarus Chapungu, Steven J Davis, Igor Bashmakov, Hancheng Dai, Shobhakar Dhakal, Xianchun Tan, Yong Geng, Baihe Gu, and Jan Minx
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greenhouse gas emissions ,energy systems ,industry ,buildings ,transport ,AFOLU ,Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering ,TD1-1066 ,Environmental sciences ,GE1-350 ,Science ,Physics ,QC1-999 - Abstract
Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can be traced to five economic sectors: energy, industry, buildings, transport and AFOLU (agriculture, forestry and other land uses). In this topical review, we synthesise the literature to explain recent trends in global and regional emissions in each of these sectors. To contextualise our review, we present estimates of GHG emissions trends by sector from 1990 to 2018, describing the major sources of emissions growth, stability and decline across ten global regions. Overall, the literature and data emphasise that progress towards reducing GHG emissions has been limited. The prominent global pattern is a continuation of underlying drivers with few signs of emerging limits to demand, nor of a deep shift towards the delivery of low and zero carbon services across sectors. We observe a moderate decarbonisation of energy systems in Europe and North America, driven by fuel switching and the increasing penetration of renewables. By contrast, in rapidly industrialising regions, fossil-based energy systems have continuously expanded, only very recently slowing down in their growth. Strong demand for materials, floor area, energy services and travel have driven emissions growth in the industry, buildings and transport sectors, particularly in Eastern Asia, Southern Asia and South-East Asia. An expansion of agriculture into carbon-dense tropical forest areas has driven recent increases in AFOLU emissions in Latin America, South-East Asia and Africa. Identifying, understanding, and tackling the most persistent and climate-damaging trends across sectors is a fundamental concern for research and policy as humanity treads deeper into the Anthropocene.
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- 2021
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8. Climate change mitigation in cities: a systematic scoping of case studies
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Mahendra Sethi, William Lamb, Jan Minx, and Felix Creutzig
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systematic review ,climate mitigation ,demand-side solutions ,policy measures ,case studies ,machine learning ,Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering ,TD1-1066 ,Environmental sciences ,GE1-350 ,Science ,Physics ,QC1-999 - Abstract
A growing number of researchers and stakeholders have started to address climate change from the bottom up: by devising scientific models, climate plans, low-carbon strategies and development policies with climate co-benefits. Little is known about the comparative characteristics of these interventions, including their relative efficacy, potentials and emissions reductions. A more systematic understanding is required to delineate the urban mitigation space and inform decision-making. Here, we utilize bibliometric methods and machine learning to meta-analyze 5635 urban case studies of climate change mitigation. We identify 867 studies that explicitly consider technological or policy instruments, and categorize these studies according to policy type, sector, abatement potential, and socio-technological composition to obtain a first heuristic of what is their pattern. Overall, we find 41 different urban solutions with an average GHG abatement potential ranging from 5.2% to 105%, most of them clustering in the building and transport sectors. More than three-fourth of the solutions are on demand side. Less than 10% of all studies were ex-post policy evaluations. Our results demonstrate that technology-oriented interventions in urban waste, transport and energy sectors have the highest marginal abatement potential, while system-wide interventions, e.g. urban form related measures have lower marginal abatement potential but wider scope. We also demonstrate that integrating measures across urban sectors realizes synergies in GHG emission reductions. Our results reveal a rich evidence of techno-policy choices that together enlarge the urban solutions space and augment actions currently considered in global assessments of climate mitigation.
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- 2020
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9. From Targets to Action: Rolling up our Sleeves after Paris
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Brigitte Knopf, Sabine Fuss, Gerrit Hansen, Felix Creutzig, Jan Minx, and Ottmar Edenhofer
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Paris Agreement ,1.5°C target ,negative emissions ,Sustainable infrastructure investments ,policy instruments ,climate change ,Technology ,Environmental sciences ,GE1-350 - Abstract
At the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris in 2015 ambitious targets for responding to the threat of climate change have been set: limiting global temperature increase to “well below 2 °C […] and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C”. However, calculating the CO2 budget for 1.5 °C, it becomes clear that there is nearly no room left for future emissions. Scenarios suggest that negative emission technologies will play an even more important role for 1.5 °C than they already play for 2 °C. Especially against this background the feasibility of the target(s) is hotly debated, but this debate does not initiate the next steps that are urgently needed. Already the negotiations have featured the move from targets to implementation which is needed in the coming decade. Most importantly, there is an urgent need to develop and implement instruments that incentivize the rapid decarbonization. Moreover, it needs to be worked out how to link the climate and development agenda and prevent a buildup of coal power causing lock‐in effects. Short term entry points into climate policy should now be in the focus instead of the fruitless debate on the feasibility of targets.
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- 2017
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10. Spatially Explicit Analysis of Water Footprints in the UK
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John Barrett, Yang Yu, Jan Minx, Ashok Chapagain, Yim Ling Siu, Klaus Hubacek, Kuishuang Feng, and Dabo Guan
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water footprint ,virtual water ,input-output analysis ,supply chains ,lifestyles ,demand-side management ,integrated water management ,Hydraulic engineering ,TC1-978 ,Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes ,TD201-500 - Abstract
The Water Footprint, as an indicator of water consumption has become increasingly popular for analyzing environmental issues associated with the use of water resources in the global supply chain of consumer goods. This is particularly relevant for countries like the UK, which increasingly rely on products produced elsewhere in the world and thus impose pressures on foreign water resources. Existing studies calculating water footprints are mostly based on process analysis, and results are mainly available at the national level. The current paper assesses the domestic and foreign water requirements for UK final consumption by applying an environmentally extended multi-regional input-output model in combination with geo-demographic consumer segmentation data. This approach allows us to calculate water footprints (both direct and indirect) for different products as well as different geographies within the UK. We distinguished between production and consumption footprints where the former is the total water consumed from the UK domestic water resources by the production activities in the UK and the latter is the total water consumed from both domestic and global water resources to satisfy the UK domestic final consumption. The results show that the production water footprint is 439 m3/cap/year, 85% of which is for the final consumption in the UK itself. The average consumption water footprint of the UK is more than three times bigger than the UK production water footprint in 2006. About half of the UK consumption water footprints were associated with imports from Non-OECD countries (many of which are water-scarce), while around 19% were from EU-OECD countries, and only 3% from Non-EU-OECD countries. We find that the water footprint differs considerably across sub-national geographies in the UK, and the differences are as big as 273 m3/cap/year for the internal water footprint and 802 m3/cap/year for the external water footprint. Our results suggest that this is mainly explained by differences in the average income level across the UK. We argue that the information provided by our model at different spatial scales can be very useful for informing integrated water supply and demand side management.
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- 2010
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11. Carbon footprints of cities and other human settlements in the UK
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Jan Minx, Giovanni Baiocchi, Thomas Wiedmann, John Barrett, Felix Creutzig, Kuishuang Feng, Michael Förster, Peter-Paul Pichler, Helga Weisz, and Klaus Hubacek
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carbon footprint ,cities ,human settlements ,local consumption ,emission drivers ,Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering ,TD1-1066 ,Environmental sciences ,GE1-350 ,Science ,Physics ,QC1-999 - Abstract
A growing body of literature discusses the CO _2 emissions of cities. Still, little is known about emission patterns across density gradients from remote rural places to highly urbanized areas, the drivers behind those emission patterns and the global emissions triggered by consumption in human settlements—referred to here as the carbon footprint. In this letter we use a hybrid method for estimating the carbon footprints of cities and other human settlements in the UK explicitly linking global supply chains to local consumption activities and associated lifestyles. This analysis comprises all areas in the UK, whether rural or urban. We compare our consumption-based results with extended territorial CO _2 emission estimates and analyse the driving forces that determine the carbon footprint of human settlements in the UK. Our results show that 90% of the human settlements in the UK are net importers of CO _2 emissions. Consumption-based CO _2 emissions are much more homogeneous than extended territorial emissions. Both the highest and lowest carbon footprints can be found in urban areas, but the carbon footprint is consistently higher relative to extended territorial CO _2 emissions in urban as opposed to rural settlement types. The impact of high or low density living remains limited; instead, carbon footprints can be comparatively high or low across density gradients depending on the location-specific socio-demographic, infrastructural and geographic characteristics of the area under consideration. We show that the carbon footprint of cities and other human settlements in the UK is mainly determined by socio-economic rather than geographic and infrastructural drivers at the spatial aggregation of our analysis. It increases with growing income, education and car ownership as well as decreasing household size. Income is not more important than most other socio-economic determinants of the carbon footprint. Possibly, the relationship between lifestyles and infrastructure only impacts carbon footprints significantly at higher spatial granularity.
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- 2013
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12. Policy implications from aligning IPCC scenarios to national land emissions inventories
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Matthew Gidden, Thomas Gasser, Giacomo Grassi, Nicklas Forsell, Iris Janssens, William Lamb, Jan Minx, Zebedee Nicholls, Jan Steinhauser, and Keywan Riahi
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Taking stock of global progress towards achieving the Paris Agreement requires measuring aggregate national action against modelled mitigation pathways. A key gap exists, however, in how scientific studies and national inventories account for the role of anthropogenic land-based carbon fluxes, resulting in a 5.5-6.0 GtCO2yr-1 difference between the respective present-day land-use estimates. Modelled pathways mainly include direct human-induced fluxes, while inventories submitted by countries to the UNFCCC (NGHGIs) generally include a wider definition of managed land area as well as the indirect removals on that land caused by environmental changes (e.g., the CO2 fertilization effect). This difference hinders comparability between targets set by countries and scientific benchmarks. Scenarios assessed in AR6 show that a combination of deep near-term gross emissions reductions and medium-term carbon removal from the atmosphere are needed to reach net-zero and eventually net-negative CO2 emissions to limit warming in line with the Paris Agreement temperature goal. However, scenarios lacked key information needed to estimate land-based removals and to align their LULUCF projections with NGHGIs. Here, we estimate the land-based removals consistent with NGHGIs using a reduced complexity climate model with explicit treatment of the land-use sector, OSCAR, one of the models used by the Global Carbon Project. Of the 1202 pathways that passed IPCC vetting, 914 provide sufficient land-use change data to allow us to fill this information gap and enable alignment between pathways and inventories.Across both 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios, pathways aligned with NGHGIs show a strong increase in the total land sink until around mid-century. However, the ‘NGHGI alignment gap’ decreases over this period, converging in the 2050-2060s for 1.5°C scenarios and 2070s-2080s for 2°C scenarios. These dynamics lead to land-based emissions reversing their downward trend in most NGHGI-aligned scenarios by mid-century, and result in the LULUCF sector becoming a net-source of emissions by 2100 in about 25% of deep mitigation scenarios.Our results do not change any climate outcome or mitigation benchmark produced by the IPCC, but rather provide a translational lens to view those outcomes. We find that net-zero timings on average advance by around 5 years; however, this does not imply that 5 years have been lost in the race to net-zero, but rather that following the reporting conventions for natural sinks results in net-zero being reached 5 years earlier. Understanding how these different accounting frameworks can be mutually interpreted is a fundamental challenge for evaluating progress towards the Paris Agreement, given the reality that direct and indirect carbon removals cannot be estimated separately with direct observations.We propose three primary ways to address this science-policy gap. First, targets can be formulated separately for gross emission reductions, land-based removals, and technical carbon removals, allowing for nations to clearly define their expected contributions and to measure progress in each domain separately. Second, nations can clarify the nature of their deforestation pledges. Third, modelling teams can provide their assumptions for the NGHGI correction as part of their standard output which future IPCC assessments can use to vet scenarios.
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- 2023
13. The carbon dioxide removal gap: current removals and country proposals versus future requirements for limiting warming to 2°C or lower
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William F. Lamb, Thomas Gasser, Giacomo Grassi, Jan Minx, Matthew Gidden, Carter Powis, Oliver Geden, Gregory Nemet, Yoga Pratama, Keywan Riahi, Stephen Smith, and Jan Steinhauser
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Steep emissions reductions are needed in the coming decades to limit warming to 2°C or lower, followed by multiple gigatons of annual carbon dioxide removal (CDR) in the second half of the 21st century. In this presentation we make a first assessment of the “CDR gap” and ask whether countries are preparing for the CDR scale-up challenge. We find that most countries pledge only a small expansion of CDR by 2030 in their nationally determined contributions (NDCs), while only a subset have proposed CDR in their long-term mitigation strategies. There is a significant gap between these proposed CDR levels and levels in scenarios that limit warming to 2°C or lower. While some scenarios have low CDR requirements, these require even steeper emissions reductions that we are not on track to achieve. Most countries prioritize conventional CDR on land (i.e. the management of forest sinks) which has low permanence and may raise land use conflicts. Conventional CDR on land will be extremely difficult just to maintain, let alone expand to meet net zero emissions targets. By contrast, countries focus far less in their NDCs and long-term strategies on novel CDR methods such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, direct air capture, or blue carbon. For these technologies to make a meaningful contribution to long-term climate mitigation, urgent support is required in the formative phases of their development. Above all, rapid emissions reductions are needed to reduce our dependence on CDR and prevent a widening CDR gap by 2050.
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- 2023
14. Indicators of Global Climate Change 2022: Annual update of large-scale indicators of the state of the climate system and the human influence
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Piers Maxwell Forster, Christopher J. Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Matthew D. Palmer, Karina von Schuckmann, Blair Trewin, Myles Allen, Robbie Andrew, Arlene Birt, Alex Borger, Tim Boyer, Jiddu A. Broersma, Lijing Cheng, Frank Dentener, Pierre Friedlingstein, Nathan Gillett, José M. Gutiérrez, Johannes Gütschow, Mathias Hauser, Bradley Hall, Masayoshi Ishii, Stuart Jenkins, Robin Lamboll, Xin Lan, June-Yi Lee, Colin Morice, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel Killick, Jan Minx, Vaishali Naik, Glen Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Aurélien Ribes, Joeri Rogelj, Debbie Rosen, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia Seneviratne, Sophie Szopa, Peter Thorne, Robert Rohde, Maisa Rojas Corradi, Dominik Schumacher, Russell Vose, Kirsten Zickfeld, Xuebin Zhang, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
- Abstract
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments are the trusted source of scientific evidence for climate negotiations taking place under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), including the first global stocktake under the Paris Agreement that will conclude at COP28 in December 2023. Evidence-based decision making needs to be informed by up-to-date and timely information on key indicators of the state of the climate system and of the human influence on the global climate system. However, successive IPCC reports are published at intervals of 5–10 years, creating potential for an information gap between report cycles. We base this update on the assessment methods used in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One (WGI) report, updating the monitoring datasets and to produce updated estimates for key climate indicators including emissions, greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing, surface temperature changes, the Earth’s energy imbalance, warming attributed to human activities, the remaining carbon budget and estimates of global temperature extremes. The purpose of this effort, grounded in an open data, open science approach, is to make annually updated reliable global climate indicators available in the public domain (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7883758, Smith et al., 2023). As they are traceable and consistent with IPCC report methods, they can be trusted by all parties involved in UNFCCC negotiations and help convey wider understanding of the latest knowledge of the climate system and its direction of travel. The indicators show that human induced warming reached 1.14 [0.9 to 1.4] °C over the 2013–2022 period and 1.26 [1.0 to 1.6] °C in 2022. Human induced warming is increasing at an unprecedented rate of over 0.2 °C per decade. This high rate of warming is caused by a combination of greenhouse gas emissions being at an all-time high of 57 ± 5.6 GtCO2e over the last decade, as well as reductions in the strength of aerosol cooling. Despite this, there are signs that emission levels are starting to stabilise, and we can hope that a continued series of these annual updates might track a real-world change of direction for the climate over this critical decade.
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- 2023
15. More Than Half of Statistically Significant Research Findings in the Environmental Sciences are Actually Not
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Teshome Deressa, David Stern, Jaco Vangronsveld, Jan Minx, Sebastien Lizin, Robert Malina, and Stephan Bruns
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Researchers have incentives to search for and selectively report findings that appear to be statistically significant and/or conform to prior beliefs. Such selective reporting practices, including p-hacking and publication bias, can lead to a distorted set of results being published, potentially undermining the process of knowledge accumulation and evidence-based decision making. We take stock of the state of empirical research in the environmental sciences using 67,947 statistical tests obtained from 547 meta-analyses. We find that 59% of the p-values that were reported as significant are not actually expected to be statistically significant. The median power of these tests is between 6% to 12%, which is the lowest yet identified for any discipline. Only 8% of tests are adequately powered with statistical power of 80% or more. Exploratory regressions suggest that increased statistical power and the use of experimental research designs reduce the extent of selective reporting. Differences between subfields can be mostly explained by methodological differences. To improve the environmental sciences evidence base, researchers should pay more attention to statistical power, but incentives for selective reporting may remain even with adequate statistical power. Ultimately, a paradigm shift towards open science is needed to ensure the reliability of published empirical research.
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- 2023
16. Climate Change Adaptation Policy Across Scales: A Machine Learning Evidence Map
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Anne J. Sietsma, Emily Theokritoff, Robbert Biesbroek, Iván Villaverde Canosa, Adelle Thomas, Max Callaghan, Jan Minx, and James D. Ford
- Published
- 2023
17. Policy guidance and pitfalls aligning IPCC scenarios to national land emissions inventories
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Matthew Gidden, Thomas Gasser, Giacomo Grassi, Niklas Forsell, Iris Janssens, William F Lamb, Jan Minx, Zebedee Nicholls, Jan Steinhauser, and Keywan Riahi
- Abstract
Taking stock of global progress towards achieving the Paris Agreement requires measuring aggregate national action against modelled mitigation pathways. Because of differences in how land-based carbon removals are defined, scientific sources report higher global carbon emissions than national emissions inventories, a gap which will evolve in the future. We establish a first estimate aligning IPCC-assessed pathways with inventories using a climate model to explicitly include indirect carbon removal dynamics on land area reported as managed for by countries. After alignment, we find that key global mitigation benchmarks can appear more ambitious when considering this extra land sink, though changes vary amongst world regions and temperature outcomes. Our results highlight the need to enhance communication between scientific and policy communities to enable more robust alignment in the future.
- Published
- 2022
18. The global adaptation mapping initiative (GAMI): Part 3 – Coding protocol
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Alexandra Lesnikowski, Lea Berrang-Ford, A.R. Siders, Neal Haddaway, Robbert Biesbroek, Sherilee Harper, Jan Minx, Erin Coughlan de Perez, Diana Reckien, Mark New, Chandni Singh, Adelle Thomas, Edmond Totin, Chris Trisos, Bianca Van Bavel, UT-I-ITC-PLUS, Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation, and Department of Urban and Regional Planning and Geo-Information Management
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ITC-GOLD - Abstract
Context: It is now widely accepted that the climate is changing, and that societal response will need to be rapid and comprehensive to prevent the most severe impacts. A key milestone in global climate governance is to assess progress on adaptation. To-date, however, there has been negligible robust, systematic synthesis of progress on adaptation or adaptation-relevant responses globally. Aim: The purpose of this review protocol is to outline the methods used by the Global Adaptation Mapping Initiative (GAMI) to systematically review human adaptation responses to climate-related changes that have been documented globally since 2013 in the scientific literature. The broad question underpinning this review is: Are we adapting to climate change? More specifically, we ask ‘what is the evidence relating to human adaptation-related responses that can (or are) directly reducing risk, exposure, and/or vulnerability to climate change?’ Methods: We review scientific literature 2013-2019 to identify documents empirically reporting on observed adaptation-related responses to climate change in human systems that can directly reduce risk. We exclude non-empirical (theoretical & conceptual) literature and adaptation in natural systems that occurs without human intervention. Included documents were coded across a set of questions focused on: Who is responding? What responses are documented? What is the extent of the adaptation-related response? What is the evidence that adaptation-related responses reduce risk, exposure and/or vulnerability? Once articles are coded, we conduct a quality appraisal of the coding and develop ‘evidence packages’ for regions and sectors. We supplement this systematic mapping with an expert elicitation exercise, undertaken to assess bias and validity of insights from included/coded literature vis a vis perceptions of real-world adaptation for global regions and sectors, with associated confidence assessments. Related protocols: This protocol represents Part 3 of a 5-part series outlining the phases of this initiative. Part 3 outlines the methods used to extract data on adaptation from documents (coding), as well as procedures for data quality assurance. See Figure 1.
- Published
- 2021
19. Demand-side solutions to climate change mitigation consistent with high levels of wellbeing
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Felix Creutzig, Leila Niamir, Xuemei Bai, Jonathan Cullen, Julio Díaz-José, Maria Figueroa, Arnulf Grübler, William Lamb, Adrian Leip, Eric Masanet, Erika Mata, Linus Mattauch, Jan Minx, Sebastian Mirasgedis, Yacob Mulugetta, Sudarmanto Nugroho, Minal Pathak, Patricia Perkins, Joyashree Roy, Stephane de la Rue du Can, Yamina Saheb, Linda Steg, Julia Steinberger, and Diana Ürge-Vorsatz
- Abstract
Climate mitigation solutions are often evaluated in terms of their costs and potentials. This accounting, however, shortcuts a comprehensive evaluation of how climate solutions affect human well-being, which, at best, may only be crudely related to cost considerations. Here, we systematically list key sectoral mitigation options on the demand side, and categorize them into avoid, shift and improve categories. We show that these options, bridging socio-behavioral, infrastructural and technological domains, can reduce counterfactual sectoral emissions by 50-80% in end use sectors. Based on expert judgement and literature survey, we then evaluate 324 combinations of wellbeing outcomes and demand side options. We find that these are largely beneficial in improving wellbeing across all measures combined (76% have positive, 22% neutral, and 2.4% have negative effects), even though confidence level is low in the social dimensions of wellbeing. Implementing demand-side solution requires i) an understanding of malleable not fixed preferences, ii) consistently measuring and evaluating constituents of wellbeing, and iii) addressing concerns of incumbents in supply-side industries. Our results shift the emphasis in the climate mitigation solution space from supply-side technologies to demand-side service provision.
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- 2021
20. Energy and environment. Transport: A roadblock to climate change mitigation?
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Felix, Creutzig, Patrick, Jochem, Oreane Y, Edelenbosch, Linus, Mattauch, Detlef P, van Vuuren, David, McCollum, and Jan, Minx
- Published
- 2015
21. Climate policy. Mapmakers and navigators, facts and values
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Ottmar, Edenhofer and Jan, Minx
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Greenhouse Effect ,Fossil Fuels ,Administrative Personnel ,Humans ,Federal Government ,Carbon Dioxide ,Policy Making ,Research Personnel ,Vehicle Emissions - Published
- 2014
22. Overview of methodology for estimating detailed local final demand matrices for municipalities in the UK
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Jan Minx, Helga Weisz, Peter-Paul Pichler, Michael Förster, Kuishuang Feng, Felix Creutzig, John Barrett, Thomas Wiedmann, Giovanni Baiocchi, Klaus Hubacek, Jan Minx, Helga Weisz, Peter-Paul Pichler, Michael Förster, Kuishuang Feng, Felix Creutzig, John Barrett, Thomas Wiedmann, Giovanni Baiocchi, and Klaus Hubacek
- Published
- 2015
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
23. Climate policies for road transport revisited (I): Evaluation of the current framework
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Felix Creutzig, Emily McGlynn, Jan Minx, and Ottmar Edenhofer
- Subjects
jel:Z0 ,jel:Z1 ,Fuel efficiency standards, low carbon fuel standards, climate change - Abstract
The global rise of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and its potentially devastating consequences require a comprehensive regulatory framework for reducing emissions, including those from the transport sector. Alternative fuels and technologies have been promoted as means for reducing the carbon intensity of the transport sector. However, the overall transport policy framework in major world economies is geared towards the use of conventional fossil fuels. This paper evaluates the effectiveness and efficiency of current climate policies for road transport that (1) target fuel producers and/or car manufacturers, and (2) influence use of alternative fuels and technologies. With diversifying fuel supply chains, carbon intensity of fuels and energy efficiency of vehicles cannot be regulated by a single instrument. We demonstrate that vehicles are best regulated across all fuels in terms of energy per distance. We conclude that price-based policies and a cap on total emissions are essential for alleviating rebound effects and perverse incentives of fuel efficiency standards and low carbon fuel standards. In tandem with existing policy tools, cap and price signal policies incentivize all emissions reduction options. Design and effects of cap and trade in the transport sector are investigated in the companion article (Flachsland et al., 2010).
- Published
- 2010
24. Estimated cross-municipal relationships between a series of geo-demographic determinants and the CF holding other determinants constant
- Author
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Jan Minx, Helga Weisz, Peter-Paul Pichler, Michael Förster, Kuishuang Feng, Felix Creutzig, John Barrett, Thomas Wiedmann, Giovanni Baiocchi, Klaus Hubacek, Jan Minx, Helga Weisz, Peter-Paul Pichler, Michael Förster, Kuishuang Feng, Felix Creutzig, John Barrett, Thomas Wiedmann, Giovanni Baiocchi, and Klaus Hubacek
- Published
- 2013
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
25. Extended territorial (scope 1 and 2) per capita CO2 emissions and per capita CF by human settlement types in England: 1—major urban (N = 76); 2—large urban (N = 45); 3—other urban (N = 55); 4—significant rural (N = 53); 5—rural 50 (N = 52); 6—rural 80 (N = 73)
- Author
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Jan Minx, Helga Weisz, Peter-Paul Pichler, Michael Förster, Kuishuang Feng, Felix Creutzig, John Barrett, Thomas Wiedmann, Giovanni Baiocchi, Klaus Hubacek, Jan Minx, Helga Weisz, Peter-Paul Pichler, Michael Förster, Kuishuang Feng, Felix Creutzig, John Barrett, Thomas Wiedmann, Giovanni Baiocchi, and Klaus Hubacek
- Published
- 2013
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
26. Per capita CF of 434 municipalities in the UK
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Jan Minx, Helga Weisz, Peter-Paul Pichler, Michael Förster, Kuishuang Feng, Felix Creutzig, John Barrett, Thomas Wiedmann, Giovanni Baiocchi, Klaus Hubacek, Jan Minx, Helga Weisz, Peter-Paul Pichler, Michael Förster, Kuishuang Feng, Felix Creutzig, John Barrett, Thomas Wiedmann, Giovanni Baiocchi, and Klaus Hubacek
- Published
- 2013
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
27. Overview of methodology for estimating detailed local final demand matrices for municipalities in the UK
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Jan Minx, Helga Weisz, Peter-Paul Pichler, Michael Förster, Kuishuang Feng, Felix Creutzig, John Barrett, Thomas Wiedmann, Giovanni Baiocchi, Klaus Hubacek, Jan Minx, Helga Weisz, Peter-Paul Pichler, Michael Förster, Kuishuang Feng, Felix Creutzig, John Barrett, Thomas Wiedmann, Giovanni Baiocchi, and Klaus Hubacek
- Published
- 2013
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
28. Extended territorial (scope 1 and 2) per capita CO2 emissions and per capita CFs across 354 municipalities in England
- Author
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Jan Minx, Helga Weisz, Peter-Paul Pichler, Michael Förster, Kuishuang Feng, Felix Creutzig, John Barrett, Thomas Wiedmann, Giovanni Baiocchi, Klaus Hubacek, Jan Minx, Helga Weisz, Peter-Paul Pichler, Michael Förster, Kuishuang Feng, Felix Creutzig, John Barrett, Thomas Wiedmann, Giovanni Baiocchi, and Klaus Hubacek
- Published
- 2013
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
29. Role of Motor Vehicle Lifetime Extension in Climate Change Policy.
- Author
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Kagawa, Shigemi, Nansai, Keisuke, Kondo, Yasushi, Hubacek, Klaus, Sangwon Suh, Jan Minx, Kudoh, Yuki, Tasaki, Tomohiro, and Nakamura, Shinichiro
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- 2011
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
30. Editorial: Fifty Campbell systematic reviews relevant to the policy response to COVID-19.
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Board CE
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
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