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This present study is focused on the modeling of the most important potato pest i.e Colorado potato beetle (Leptinotarsa decemlineata, Say 1824) development in relation to the climate conditions over the area of the Czech Republic. The aim was to develop a model allowing the assessment of the CPB possible spread under the climate change. For the estimation of the CPB occurrence in expected climate conditions we used a dynamic model CLIMEX that enables to determine the suitability of a given location climate for the pests survival and infestation capability based on known pests requirements to the climate conditions. Following the validation and calibration of the model outputs, the meteorological data were altered according to three Global Circulation Models (ECHAM4, HadCM3, NCARPCM) that were driven by two SRES emission scenarios (A2, B1) with two assumed levels of climate system sensitivity for period 2025 and 2050. Model output, for current and expected climate conditions, were visualized by GIS using a digital landscape model. Under all climate change scenarios we noted a widening of CPB distribution area and change in the infestation pressure of the pest.

Climate conditions exert a significant influence over the spreading, life cycle duration, infestation pressure and the overall occurrence of majority of agricultural pests and diseases. Recently there is paid a big attention to possible climate change and its impacts resulting the threat to the controlled agro ecosystems. In the context of actual climate change there is likely the shift in the occurrence of some pests and diseases and at the same time also the change of the spectrum of harmful organisms. Direct results of the effect of higher temperatures on the pests' lifecycle can involve the acceleration of pests' development due to the faster achieving of number of degree-days which can result the shift of pests to higher altitudes. There is likely the increase of the number of generations of some pests and higher population density in the consequence of prolonged growing season and the period favourable for reproduction. Changed conditions during the period of overwintering could be the determining factor for population dynamic of insect and fungi.