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The integration of artificial intelligence into business processes has significantly enhanced decision-making capabilities across various industries such as finance, healthcare, and retail. However, explaining the decisions made by these AI systems poses a significant challenge due to the opaque nature of recent deep learning models, which typically function as black boxes. To address this opacity, a multitude of explainability techniques have emerged. However, in practical business applications, the challenge lies in selecting an appropriate explainability method that balances comprehensibility with accuracy. This paper addresses the practical need of understanding differences in the output of explainability techniques by proposing a novel method for the assessment of the agreement of different explainability techniques. Based on our proposed methods, we provide a comprehensive comparative analysis of six leading explainability techniques to help guiding the selection of such techniques in practice. Our proposed general-purpose method is evaluated on top of one of the most popular deep learning architectures, the Vision Transformer model, which is frequently employed in business applications. Notably, we propose a novel metric to measure the agreement of explainability techniques that can be interpreted visually. By providing a practical framework for understanding the agreement of diverse explainability techniques, our research aims to facilitate the broader integration of interpretable AI systems in business applications., Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures

Urgent applications like wildfire management and renewable energy generation require precise, localized weather forecasts near the Earth's surface. However, weather forecast products from machine learning or numerical weather models are currently generated on a global regular grid, on which a naive interpolation cannot accurately reflect fine-grained weather patterns close to the ground. In this work, we train a heterogeneous graph neural network (GNN) end-to-end to downscale gridded forecasts to off-grid locations of interest. This multi-modal GNN takes advantage of local historical weather observations (e.g., wind, temperature) to correct the gridded weather forecast at different lead times towards locally accurate forecasts. Each data modality is modeled as a different type of node in the graph. Using message passing, the node at the prediction location aggregates information from its heterogeneous neighbor nodes. Experiments using weather stations across the Northeastern United States show that our model outperforms a range of data-driven and non-data-driven off-grid forecasting methods. Our approach demonstrates how the gap between global large-scale weather models and locally accurate predictions can be bridged to inform localized decision-making.

Triggered by the realization that AI emulators can rival the performance of traditional numerical weather prediction models running on HPC systems, there is now an increasing number of large AI models that address use cases such as forecasting, downscaling, or nowcasting. While the parallel developments in the AI literature focus on foundation models -- models that can be effectively tuned to address multiple, different use cases -- the developments on the weather and climate side largely focus on single-use cases with particular emphasis on mid-range forecasting. We close this gap by introducing Prithvi WxC, a 2.3 billion parameter foundation model developed using 160 variables from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). Prithvi WxC employs an encoder-decoder-based architecture, incorporating concepts from various recent transformer models to effectively capture both regional and global dependencies in the input data. The model has been designed to accommodate large token counts to model weather phenomena in different topologies at fine resolutions. Furthermore, it is trained with a mixed objective that combines the paradigms of masked reconstruction with forecasting. We test the model on a set of challenging downstream tasks namely: Autoregressive rollout forecasting, Downscaling, Gravity wave flux parameterization, and Extreme events estimation. The pretrained model with 2.3 billion parameters, along with the associated fine-tuning workflows, has been publicly released as an open-source contribution via Hugging Face.

Identifying and handling label errors can significantly enhance the accuracy of supervised machine learning models. Recent approaches for identifying label errors demonstrate that a low self-confidence of models with respect to a certain label represents a good indicator of an erroneous label. However, latest work has built on softmax probabilities to measure self-confidence. In this paper, we argue that -- as softmax probabilities do not reflect a model's predictive uncertainty accurately -- label error detection requires more sophisticated measures of model uncertainty. Therefore, we develop a range of novel, model-agnostic algorithms for Uncertainty Quantification-Based Label Error Detection (UQ-LED), which combine the techniques of confident learning (CL), Monte Carlo Dropout (MCD), model uncertainty measures (e.g., entropy), and ensemble learning to enhance label error detection. We comprehensively evaluate our algorithms on four image classification benchmark datasets in two stages. In the first stage, we demonstrate that our UQ-LED algorithms outperform state-of-the-art confident learning in identifying label errors. In the second stage, we show that removing all identified errors from the training data based on our approach results in higher accuracies than training on all available labeled data. Importantly, besides our contributions to the detection of label errors, we particularly propose a novel approach to generate realistic, class-dependent label errors synthetically. Overall, our study demonstrates that selectively cleaning datasets with UQ-LED algorithms leads to more accurate classifications than using larger, noisier datasets., Comment: Under single blinded review

Recent advances in synthetic imaging open up opportunities for obtaining additional data in the field of surgical imaging. This data can provide reliable supplements supporting surgical applications and decision-making through computer vision. Particularly the field of image-guided surgery, such as laparoscopic and robotic-assisted surgery, benefits strongly from synthetic image datasets and virtual surgical training methods. Our study presents an intuitive approach for generating synthetic laparoscopic images from short text prompts using diffusion-based generative models. We demonstrate the usage of state-of-the-art text-to-image architectures in the context of laparoscopic imaging with regard to the surgical removal of the gallbladder as an example. Results on fidelity and diversity demonstrate that diffusion-based models can acquire knowledge about the style and semantics in the field of image-guided surgery. A validation study with a human assessment survey underlines the realistic nature of our synthetic data, as medical personnel detects actual images in a pool with generated images causing a false-positive rate of 66%. In addition, the investigation of a state-of-the-art machine learning model to recognize surgical actions indicates enhanced results when trained with additional generated images of up to 5.20%. Overall, the achieved image quality contributes to the usage of computer-generated images in surgical applications and enhances its path to maturity.

A significant challenge in image-guided surgery is the accurate measurement task of relevant structures such as vessel segments, resection margins, or bowel lengths. While this task is an essential component of many surgeries, it involves substantial human effort and is prone to inaccuracies. In this paper, we develop a novel human-AI-based method for laparoscopic measurements utilizing stereo vision that has been guided by practicing surgeons. Based on a holistic qualitative requirements analysis, this work proposes a comprehensive measurement method, which comprises state-of-the-art machine learning architectures, such as RAFT-Stereo and YOLOv8. The developed method is assessed in various realistic experimental evaluation environments. Our results outline the potential of our method achieving high accuracies in distance measurements with errors below 1 mm. Furthermore, on-surface measurements demonstrate robustness when applied in challenging environments with textureless regions. Overall, by addressing the inherent challenges of image-guided surgery, we lay the foundation for a more robust and accurate solution for intra- and postoperative measurements, enabling more precise, safe, and efficient surgical procedures., Comment: 38th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-24)

Significant progress in the development of highly adaptable and reusable Artificial Intelligence (AI) models is expected to have a significant impact on Earth science and remote sensing. Foundation models are pre-trained on large unlabeled datasets through self-supervision, and then fine-tuned for various downstream tasks with small labeled datasets. This paper introduces a first-of-a-kind framework for the efficient pre-training and fine-tuning of foundational models on extensive geospatial data. We have utilized this framework to create Prithvi, a transformer-based geospatial foundational model pre-trained on more than 1TB of multispectral satellite imagery from the Harmonized Landsat-Sentinel 2 (HLS) dataset. Our study demonstrates the efficacy of our framework in successfully fine-tuning Prithvi to a range of Earth observation tasks that have not been tackled by previous work on foundation models involving multi-temporal cloud gap imputation, flood mapping, wildfire scar segmentation, and multi-temporal crop segmentation. Our experiments show that the pre-trained model accelerates the fine-tuning process compared to leveraging randomly initialized weights. In addition, pre-trained Prithvi compares well against the state-of-the-art, e.g., outperforming a conditional GAN model in multi-temporal cloud imputation by up to 5pp (or 5.7%) in the structural similarity index. Finally, due to the limited availability of labeled data in the field of Earth observation, we gradually reduce the quantity of available labeled data for refining the model to evaluate data efficiency and demonstrate that data can be decreased significantly without affecting the model's accuracy. The pre-trained 100 million parameter model and corresponding fine-tuning workflows have been released publicly as open source contributions to the global Earth sciences community through Hugging Face.

Machine learning and deep learning methods have been widely explored in understanding the chaotic behavior of the atmosphere and furthering weather forecasting. There has been increasing interest from technology companies, government institutions, and meteorological agencies in building digital twins of the Earth. Recent approaches using transformers, physics-informed machine learning, and graph neural networks have demonstrated state-of-the-art performance on relatively narrow spatiotemporal scales and specific tasks. With the recent success of generative artificial intelligence (AI) using pre-trained transformers for language modeling and vision with prompt engineering and fine-tuning, we are now moving towards generalizable AI. In particular, we are witnessing the rise of AI foundation models that can perform competitively on multiple domain-specific downstream tasks. Despite this progress, we are still in the nascent stages of a generalizable AI model for global Earth system models, regional climate models, and mesoscale weather models. Here, we review current state-of-the-art AI approaches, primarily from transformer and operator learning literature in the context of meteorology. We provide our perspective on criteria for success towards a family of foundation models for nowcasting and forecasting weather and climate predictions. We also discuss how such models can perform competitively on downstream tasks such as downscaling (super-resolution), identifying conditions conducive to the occurrence of wildfires, and predicting consequential meteorological phenomena across various spatiotemporal scales such as hurricanes and atmospheric rivers. In particular, we examine current AI methodologies and contend they have matured enough to design and implement a weather foundation model., Comment: 44 pages, 1 figure, updated Fig. 1

Information systems increasingly leverage artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) to generate value from vast amounts of data. However, ML models are imperfect and can generate incorrect classifications. Hence, human-in-the-loop (HITL) extensions to ML models add a human review for instances that are difficult to classify. This study argues that continuously relying on human experts to handle difficult model classifications leads to a strong increase in human effort, which strains limited resources. To address this issue, we propose a hybrid system that creates artificial experts that learn to classify data instances from unknown classes previously reviewed by human experts. Our hybrid system assesses which artificial expert is suitable for classifying an instance from an unknown class and automatically assigns it. Over time, this reduces human effort and increases the efficiency of the system. Our experiments demonstrate that our approach outperforms traditional HITL systems for several benchmarks on image classification., Comment: Accepted at International Conference on Wirtschaftsinformatik, 2023

While semantic segmentation has seen tremendous improvements in the past, there are still significant labeling efforts necessary and the problem of limited generalization to classes that have not been present during training. To address this problem, zero-shot semantic segmentation makes use of large self-supervised vision-language models, allowing zero-shot transfer to unseen classes. In this work, we build a benchmark for Multi-domain Evaluation of Semantic Segmentation (MESS), which allows a holistic analysis of performance across a wide range of domain-specific datasets such as medicine, engineering, earth monitoring, biology, and agriculture. To do this, we reviewed 120 datasets, developed a taxonomy, and classified the datasets according to the developed taxonomy. We select a representative subset consisting of 22 datasets and propose it as the MESS benchmark. We evaluate eight recently published models on the proposed MESS benchmark and analyze characteristics for the performance of zero-shot transfer models. The toolkit is available at https://github.com/blumenstiel/MESS., Comment: 37th Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS 2023) Track on Datasets and Benchmarks

In AI-assisted decision-making, a central promise of having a human-in-the-loop is that they should be able to complement the AI system by overriding its wrong recommendations. In practice, however, we often see that humans cannot assess the correctness of AI recommendations and, as a result, adhere to wrong or override correct advice. Different ways of relying on AI recommendations have immediate, yet distinct, implications for decision quality. Unfortunately, reliance and decision quality are often inappropriately conflated in the current literature on AI-assisted decision-making. In this work, we disentangle and formalize the relationship between reliance and decision quality, and we characterize the conditions under which human-AI complementarity is achievable. To illustrate how reliance and decision quality relate to one another, we propose a visual framework and demonstrate its usefulness for interpreting empirical findings, including the effects of interventions like explanations. Overall, our research highlights the importance of distinguishing between reliance behavior and decision quality in AI-assisted decision-making.

Recent research suggests that combining AI models with a human expert can exceed the performance of either alone. The combination of their capabilities is often realized by learning to defer algorithms that enable the AI to learn to decide whether to make a prediction for a particular instance or defer it to the human expert. However, to accurately learn which instances should be deferred to the human expert, a large number of expert predictions that accurately reflect the expert's capabilities are required -- in addition to the ground truth labels needed to train the AI. This requirement shared by many learning to defer algorithms hinders their adoption in scenarios where the responsible expert regularly changes or where acquiring a sufficient number of expert predictions is costly. In this paper, we propose a three-step approach to reduce the number of expert predictions required to train learning to defer algorithms. It encompasses (1) the training of an embedding model with ground truth labels to generate feature representations that serve as a basis for (2) the training of an expertise predictor model to approximate the expert's capabilities. (3) The expertise predictor generates artificial expert predictions for instances not yet labeled by the expert, which are required by the learning to defer algorithms. We evaluate our approach on two public datasets. One with "synthetically" generated human experts and another from the medical domain containing real-world radiologists' predictions. Our experiments show that the approach allows the training of various learning to defer algorithms with a minimal number of human expert predictions. Furthermore, we demonstrate that even a small number of expert predictions per class is sufficient for these algorithms to exceed the performance the AI and the human expert can achieve individually., Comment: 37th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-23)

Climate change results in an increased probability of extreme weather events that put societies and businesses at risk on a global scale. Therefore, near real-time mapping of natural hazards is an emerging priority for the support of natural disaster relief, risk management, and informing governmental policy decisions. Recent methods to achieve near real-time mapping increasingly leverage deep learning (DL). However, DL-based approaches are designed for one specific task in a single geographic region based on specific frequency bands of satellite data. Therefore, DL models used to map specific natural hazards struggle with their generalization to other types of natural hazards in unseen regions. In this work, we propose a methodology to significantly improve the generalizability of DL natural hazards mappers based on pre-training on a suitable pre-task. Without access to any data from the target domain, we demonstrate this improved generalizability across four U-Net architectures for the segmentation of unseen natural hazards. Importantly, our method is invariant to geographic differences and differences in the type of frequency bands of satellite data. By leveraging characteristics of unlabeled images from the target domain that are publicly available, our approach is able to further improve the generalization behavior without fine-tuning. Thereby, our approach supports the development of foundation models for earth monitoring with the objective of directly segmenting unseen natural hazards across novel geographic regions given different sources of satellite imagery., Comment: Accepted at IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium (IGARSS 2023)

Data-centric artificial intelligence (data-centric AI) represents an emerging paradigm emphasizing that the systematic design and engineering of data is essential for building effective and efficient AI-based systems. The objective of this article is to introduce practitioners and researchers from the field of Information Systems (IS) to data-centric AI. We define relevant terms, provide key characteristics to contrast the data-centric paradigm to the model-centric one, and introduce a framework for data-centric AI. We distinguish data-centric AI from related concepts and discuss its longer-term implications for the IS community., Comment: Accepted for publication at Business & Information Systems Engineering

In this work, we empirically examine human-AI decision-making in the presence of explanations based on predicted outcomes. This type of explanation provides a human decision-maker with expected consequences for each decision alternative at inference time - where the predicted outcomes are typically measured in a problem-specific unit (e.g., profit in U.S. dollars). We conducted a pilot study in the context of peer-to-peer lending to assess the effects of providing predicted outcomes as explanations to lay study participants. Our preliminary findings suggest that people's reliance on AI recommendations increases compared to cases where no explanation or feature-based explanations are provided, especially when the AI recommendations are incorrect. This results in a hampered ability to distinguish correct from incorrect AI recommendations, which can ultimately affect decision quality in a negative way., Comment: Accepted at ECML XKDD workshop

Business analytics and machine learning have become essential success factors for various industries - with the downside of cost-intensive gathering and labeling of data. Few-shot learning addresses this challenge and reduces data gathering and labeling costs by learning novel classes with very few labeled data. In this paper, we design a human-in-the-loop (HITL) system for few-shot learning and analyze an extensive range of mechanisms that can be used to acquire human expert knowledge for instances that have an uncertain prediction outcome. We show that the acquisition of human expert knowledge significantly accelerates the few-shot model performance given a negligible labeling effort. We validate our findings in various experiments on a benchmark dataset in computer vision and real-world datasets. We further demonstrate the cost-effectiveness of HITL systems for few-shot learning. Overall, our work aims at supporting researchers and practitioners in effectively adapting machine learning models to novel classes at reduced costs., Comment: International Conference on Wirtschaftsinformatik, 14 pages

Machine learning (ML) models are increasingly being used in application domains that often involve working together with human experts. In this context, it can be advantageous to defer certain instances to a single human expert when they are difficult to predict for the ML model. While previous work has focused on scenarios with one distinct human expert, in many real-world situations several human experts with varying capabilities may be available. In this work, we propose an approach that trains a classification model to complement the capabilities of multiple human experts. By jointly training the classifier together with an allocation system, the classifier learns to accurately predict those instances that are difficult for the human experts, while the allocation system learns to pass each instance to the most suitable team member -- either the classifier or one of the human experts. We evaluate our proposed approach in multiple experiments on public datasets with "synthetic" experts and a real-world medical dataset annotated by multiple radiologists. Our approach outperforms prior work and is more accurate than the best human expert or a classifier. Furthermore, it is flexibly adaptable to teams of varying sizes and different levels of expert diversity., Comment: Accepted at IJCAI 2022

The storming of the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021 has led to the killing of 5 people and is widely regarded as an attack on democracy. The storming was largely coordinated through social media networks such as Parler. Yet little is known regarding how users interacted on Parler during the storming of the Capitol. In this work, we examine the emotion dynamics on Parler during the storming with regard to heterogeneity across time and users. For this, we segment the user base into different groups (e.g., Trump supporters and QAnon supporters). We use affective computing (Kratzwald et al. 2018) to infer the emotions in the contents, thereby allowing us to provide a comprehensive assessment of online emotions. Our evaluation is based on a large-scale dataset from Parler, comprising of 717,300 posts from 144,003 users. We find that the user base responded to the storming of the Capitol with an overall negative sentiment. Akin to this, Trump supporters also expressed a negative sentiment and high levels of unbelief. In contrast to that, QAnon supporters did not express a more negative sentiment during the storming. We further provide a cross-platform analysis and compare the emotion dynamics on Parler and Twitter. Our findings point at a comparatively less negative response to the incidents on Parler compared to Twitter accompanied by higher levels of disapproval and outrage. Our contribution to research is three-fold: (1) We identify online emotions that were characteristic of the storming; (2) we assess emotion dynamics across different user groups on Parler; (3) we compare the emotion dynamics on Parler and Twitter. Thereby, our work offers important implications for actively managing online emotions to prevent similar incidents in the future., Comment: Accepted at the International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media (ICWSM, 2023)

Particle swarm optimization (PSO) is an iterative search method that moves a set of candidate solution around a search-space towards the best known global and local solutions with randomized step lengths. PSO frequently accelerates optimization in practical applications, where gradients are not available and function evaluations expensive. Yet the traditional PSO algorithm ignores the potential knowledge that could have been gained of the objective function from the observations by individual particles. Hence, we draw upon concepts from Bayesian optimization and introduce a stochastic surrogate model of the objective function. That is, we fit a Gaussian process to past evaluations of the objective function, forecast its shape and then adapt the particle movements based on it. Our computational experiments demonstrate that baseline implementations of PSO (i.e., SPSO2011) are outperformed. Furthermore, compared to, state-of-art surrogate-assisted evolutionary algorithms, we achieve substantial performance improvements on several popular benchmark functions. Overall, we find that our algorithm attains desirable properties for exploratory and exploitative behavior.