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Objectives Within the framework of the burden of disease (BoD) approach, disease and injury burden estimates attributable to risk factors are a useful guide for policy formulation and priority setting in disease prevention. Considering the important differences in methods, and their impact on burden estimates, we conducted a scoping literature review to: (1) map the BoD assessments including risk factors performed across Europe; and (2) identify the methodological choices in comparative risk assessment (CRA) and risk assessment methods. Methods We searched multiple literature databases, including grey literature websites and targeted public health agencies websites. Results A total of 113 studies were included in the synthesis and further divided into independent BoD assessments (54 studies) and studies linked to the Global Burden of Disease (59 papers). Our results showed that the methods used to perform CRA varied substantially across independent European BoD studies. While there were some methodological choices that were more common than others, we did not observe patterns in terms of country, year or risk factor. Each methodological choice can affect the comparability of estimates between and within countries and/or risk factors, since they might significantly influence the quantification of the attributable burden. From our analysis we observed that the use of CRA was less common for some types of risk factors and outcomes. These included environmental and occupational risk factors, which are more likely to use bottom-up approaches for health outcomes where disease envelopes may not be available. Conclusions Our review also highlighted misreporting, the lack of uncertainty analysis and the under-investigation of causal relationships in BoD studies. Development and use of guidelines for performing and reporting BoD studies will help understand differences, avoid misinterpretations thus improving comparability among esti

Iodine deficiency is one of the most common nutritional disorders worldwide. In Denmark, the mandatory iodine fortification of salt of 13 ppm was introduced in 2000 to eradicate mild to moderate iodine deficiency and the fortification level was increased to 20 ppm in 2019. However, the optimal iodine intake is a narrow interval, and the risk of disease increases with intakes both below and above this interval. In this study, we quantified the risk-benefit balance in the Danish adult population by increasing the mandatory fortification level. We applied a risk-benefit assessment approach in which population-level iodine intakes before and after the increase in fortification were integrated with epidemiological evidence of the association between iodine nutrition status and risk of relevant diseases to estimate the number of cases caused or prevented and estimated health impact in terms of disability-adjusted life years (DALY). We estimated an overall beneficial health impact and prevention of 34.9 (95% UI: -51.6; -21.7) DALY per 100,000 adults in the population annually with the increase in fortification level. Prevention of low IQ in children due to maternal iodine deficiency was the primary contributor to overall health gain. The gain in healthy life years comes at the expense of extra cases of goiter due to iodine excess. Due to lack of data, hypo- and hyperthyroidism related to iodine status were not included. Neither were children as a population group. Because of this, as well as uncertainties inherent in the model and data used, results should be interpreted with caution. We argue that nation-specific, quantitative assessments of the public health impact of fortification programs provide transparent, evidence-based decision support. Future research should aim to enable the inclusion of all relevant health effects as well as children in the assessment.

Background: Seaweed has high potential for nourishing the future planet. However, besides beneficial it also contains adverse components; this poses the question whether consumption of seaweed foods overall contributes beneficially or detrimentally to human health, and hence if their consumption should be promoted or restricted. Methods: This study evaluated the impact of substituting regular foods with seaweed foods in the diet, both in terms of nutritional quality (via Iodine and Sodium) and food safety (via Arsenic, Cadmium, Lead and Mercury). Food consumption data from the Netherlands and Portugal (adults aged >18 y) were used, in which 10% of the amounts of pasta, bacon and lettuce consumed were replaced by seaweed-derived products made from kelp (Saccharina latissima). Using Monte Carlo Risk Assessment software (MCRA), long-term nutrient intake and exposure to contaminants were assessed. The results obtained for the Netherlands and Portugal were compared with data from Japan, a country that has a high natural consumption of seaweed. Results: This low-tier risk-benefit study reveals that an increased seaweed consumption (as assessed by the 10% replacement with seaweed products) has no consequences in terms of intake of Sodium, and exposure to Cadmium, Lead and Mercury and the associated (absence of) adverse health aspects. The alternative scenario almost doubled the mean Iodine intake in the Netherlands (to 300 µg/day) and Portugal (to 208 µg/day) and increased the average exposure to Arsenic levels in the Netherlands (to 1.02 µg/kg bw/day) and Portugal (to 1.67 µg/kg bw/day). Conclusion: The intake of Iodine and exposure to Arsenic in the Netherland and Portugal were certainly higher due to the modelled increase of seaweed foods. If seaweed consumption increases close to the 10% substitution, the public health consequences thereof may trigger further research.

Lifestyle and sociodemographics are likely to influence dietary patterns, and, as a result, human exposure to chemical contaminants in foods and their associated health impact. We aimed to characterize subgroups of the Danish population based on diet and sociodemographic indicators, and identify those bearing a higher disease burden due to exposure to methylmercury (MeHg), cadmium (Cd) and inorganic arsenic (i-As). We collected dietary, lifestyle, and sociodemographic data on the occurrence of chemical contaminants in foods from Danish surveys. We grouped participants according to similarities in diet, lifestyle, and sociodemographics using Self-Organizing Maps (SOM), and estimated disease burden in disability-adjusted life years (DALY). SOM clustering resulted in 12 population groups with distinct characteristics. Exposure to contaminants varied between clusters and was largely driven by intake of fish, seafood and cereal products. Five clusters had an estimated annual burden >20 DALY/100,000. The cluster with the highest burden had a high proportion of women of childbearing age, with most of the burden attributed to MeHg. Individuals belonging to the top three clusters had higher education and physical activity, were mainly non-smokers and lived in urban areas. Our findings may facilitate the development of preventive strategies targeted to the most affected subgroups.

One of the challenges in quantitative risk-benefit assessment (RBA) of foods is the choice of approach for health effect characterization to estimate the health impact of dietary changes. The purpose of health effect characterization is to describe an association between intake of a food or food component and a health effect in terms of a dose-response relationship. We assessed the impact of the choice of approach for health effect characterization in RBA in two case studies based on substitution of (i) white rice by brown rice and (ii) unprocessed red meat by vegetables. We explored this by comparing the dose-response relations linking a health effect with (i) a food component present in the food, (ii) a food based on non-specified substitution analyses, and (iii) a food based on specified substitution analyses. We found that the choice of approach for health effect characterization in RBA may largely impact the results of the health impact estimates. Conducting the calculations only for a food component may neglect potential effects of the food matrix and of the whole food on the diet-disease association. Furthermore, calculations based on associations for non-specified substitutions include underlying food substitutions without specifying these. Data on relevant specified substitutions, which could reduce this type of bias, are unfortunately rarely available. Assumptions and limitations of the health effect characterization approaches taken in RBA should be documented and discussed, and scenario analysis is encouraged when multiple options are available.

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Despite increased political attention, foodborne diseases still cause a substantial public health, economic, and social burden worldwide. Children younger than 5 years, people living in developing regions, and in the poorest areas of the world are disproportionally affected, bearing a large proportion of the global burden of foodborne disease. Yet, food safety is a prerequisite to ensuring food security globally: Foods that are responsible for important food safety problems are also crucial to ensure food security in some regions and are essential sources of nutrition. Moreover, together with calls for action to meeting international sustainable development goals, global efforts to promote food security and healthy diets have now highlighted the need to modify food systems globally. This article therefore explores the food safety dimensions of transitions toward food systems that promote sustainable healthy diets. The current body of evidence points to the combined health and environmental benefits of shifting toward a more plant-based diet, including vegetables and fruits, nuts, pulses, and whole grains. As a shift toward more plant-based diets may also lead to higher exposures to chemicals or pathogens present in these foods, an evaluation of food safety implications of such transitions is now imperative. We conclude that several synergies between public health, environmental, and food safety strategies can be identified to support dietary transitions.

Burden of disease metrics is increasingly established to prioritize food safety interventions. We estimated the burden of disease caused by seven foodborne pathogens in Denmark in 2017: Campylobacter, Salmonella, Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli, norovirus, Yersinia enterocolitica, Listeria monocytogenes, and Toxoplasma gondii. We used public health surveillance data and scientific literature to estimate incidence, mortality, and total disability-adjusted life year (DALY) of each, and linked results with estimates of the proportion of disease burden that is attributable to foods. Our estimates showed that Campylobacter caused the highest burden of disease, leading to a total burden of 1709 DALYs (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1665-1755), more than threefold higher than the second highest ranked pathogen (Salmonella: 492 DALYs; 95% UI 481-504). Campylobacter still led the ranking when excluding DALYs attributable to nonfoodborne routes of exposure. The total estimated incidence was highest for norovirus, but this agent ranked sixth when focusing on foodborne burden. Salmonella ranked second in terms of foodborne burden of disease, followed by Listeria and Yersinia. Foodborne congenital toxoplasmosis was estimated to cause the loss of ∼100 years of healthy life, a burden that was borne by a low number of cases in the population. The ranking of foodborne pathogens varied substantially when based on reported cases, estimated incidence, and burden of disease estimates. Our results reinforce the need to continue food safety efforts throughout the food chain in Denmark, with a particular focus on reducing the incidence of Campylobacter infections.

Background Human diet may present both risks and benefits to consumers’ health. Risk-benefit assessment of foods (RBA) intends to estimate the overall health impact associated with exposure (or lack of exposure) to a particular food or food component. Scope and Approach “RiskBenefit4EU – Partnering to strengthen the risk-benefit assessment within EU using a holistic approach” (RB4EU) is a project funded by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) that integrates a multidisciplinary team from Portugal, Denmark and France. This project aims to strengthen the EU capacity to assess and integrate food risks and benefits regarding toxicology, microbiology and nutrition. One of the specific objectives of RB4EU was to build capacity in RBA among the recipient partners from Portugal. In order to achieve this objective, a capacity building strategy including theoretical and hands-on training and the development of a case-study were established. This paper aims to present the strategy used in the RB4EU project to build capacity within RBA, including the main training approaches and the lessons learned. Key findings and conclusions The capacity-building program included three main activities: theoretical training, focusing on RBA concepts; hands-on training, applying the acquired concepts to a concrete case-study, using the methods and tools displayed; and scientific missions, intending to provide advanced training in specific domains of RBA. The developed strategy can be used in the future to build capacity within RBA.

Background: Humans are exposed to heavy metals from certain foods, thus specific dietary patterns may lead to high burden of disease (BoD). By identifying diet, lifestyle and socio-demographic characteristics of population groups with highest BoD, targeted preventive strategies can be developed. We aimed at identifying clusters and characteristics of Danish individuals with highest BoD due to food exposure to three heavy metals: methylmercury (MeHg), cadmium and inorganic arsenic.MethodsWe collected diet, lifestyle and socio-demographic information of 3,946 individuals in the Danish National Survey of Diet and Physical Activity. Occurrence of heavy metals in food was obtained from Danish food monitoring. We applied machine learning self-organizing maps to group individuals according to similarities in diet, lifestyle and socio-demographics, and estimated BoD due to metal exposure in terms of Disease-Adjusted Life Years (DALY). We will present calculation steps of our approach in a tutorial-like way and demonstrate its applicability to other cases.ResultsWe identified 13 population subgroups with distinct dietary and lifestyle characteristics. The estimated BoD varied largely between subgroups, with five subgroups experiencing a BoD > 10 DALY/100,000. The cluster bearing the highest BoD (26.2 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 10.3, 50.6) DALY/100,000) was significantly different from the cluster with the lowest BoD (5.1 (95% UI: 2.5, 9.2) DALY/100,000) (preliminary). BoD was higher in subgroups with diet and lifestyle considered healthy. Most of the BoD was due to MeHg, particularly in female-dominant subgroups.ConclusionsLinking machine learning, exposure assessment and burden of disease metrics, this novel approach identified population subgroups with higher BoD due to exposure to three heavy metals. It can be expanded to estimate BoD of other chemicals, and used to develop targeted preventive strategies to reduce BoD in more affected subgroups.

“RiskBenefit4EU ‐ Partnering to strengthen the risk‐benefit assessment within EU using a holistic approach” was a knowledge transfer project funded by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) that integrated a multidisciplinary team from Portugal, Denmark and France. This project aimed to strengthen the EU capacity to assess risks and benefits associated with human food consumption, considering the fields of toxicology, microbiology and nutrition. To train the recipient partners from Portugal on Risk‐Benefit Assessment (RBA), a capacity‐building program was implemented, including three main activities: theoretical training on RBA concepts; hands‐on training applying concepts to a case‐study using methods and tools displayed; and scientific missions to provide advanced training in specific domains of RBA. The developed RBA strategy was applied to a case study focusing on the RBAof the consumption of cereal‐based products by Portuguese young children. Risks due to aflatoxins, Bacillus cereus, sodium and free sugars, were evaluated, as well as the benefit of fibreintake. Five different scenarios of infant cereals and/or breakfast cereals consumption were considered, and the assessment showed that moving from the current consumption to the considered alternative scenarios wouldresult in a gain of healthy‐life years. The RiskBenefit4EU project applied a collaborative method to train a new team to perform RBAs of foods and face the challenge of cooperation between experts from different disciplines. During the process of capacity building, a movement from conceptual knowledge towards action was an essential step to effectively increase performance. The developed framework facilitated the case‐study accomplishment and contributed to build a shared and harmonized RBA approach and culture. The suggested strategy can now be re‐used to capacitate other teams in RBA,and can be considered as a basis to build upon.

Climate change has been indicated as a driver for food safety issues worldwide, mainly due to the impact on the occurrence of food safety hazards at various stages of food chain. Mycotoxins, natural contaminants produced by fungi, are among the most important of such hazards. Aflatoxins, which have the highest acute and chronic toxicity of all mycotoxins, assume particular importance. A recent study predicted aflatoxin contamination in maize and wheat crops in Europe within the next 100 years and aflatoxin B1 is predicted to become a food safety issue in Europe, especially in the most probable scenario of climate change (+2 °C). This review discusses the potential influence of climate change on the health risk associated to aflatoxins dietary exposure of Portuguese population. We estimated the burden of disease associated to the current aflatoxin exposure for Portuguese population in terms of Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). It is expected that in the future the number of DALYs and the associated cases of hepatocellular carcinoma due to aflatoxins exposure will increase due to climate change. The topics highlighted through this review, including the potential impact on health of the Portuguese population through the dietary exposure to aflatoxins, should represent an alert for the potential consequences of an incompletely explored perspective of climate change. Politics and decision-makers should be involved and committed to implement effective measures to deal with climate change issues and to reduce its possible consequences. This review constitutes a contribution for the prioritisation of strategies to face the unequal burden of effects of weather-related hazards in Portugal and across Europe.

Consumption of meat prepared by barbecuing is associated with risk of cancer due to formation of carcinogenic compounds including benzo[a]pyrene (BaP). Assessment of a population's risk of disease and people's individual probability of disease given specific consumer attributes may direct food safety strategies to where impact on public health is largest. The aim of this study was to propose a model that estimates the risk of cancer caused by exposure to BaP from barbecued meat in Denmark, and to estimate the probability of developing cancer in subgroups of the population given different barbecuing frequencies. We developed probabilistic models applying two dimensional Monte Carlo simulation to take into account the variation in exposure given age and sex and in the individuals' sensitivity to develop cancer after exposure to BaP, and the uncertainty in the dose response model. We used the Danish dietary consumption survey, monitoring data of chemical concentrations, data on consumer behavior of frequency of barbecuing, and animal dose response data. We estimated an average extra lifetime risk of cancer due to BaP from barbecued meat of 6.8 × 10-5 (95% uncertainty interval 2.6 × 10-7 - 7.0 × 10-4) in the Danish population. This corresponds to approximately one to 4,074 extra cancer cases over a lifetime, reflecting wide uncertainty. The impact per barbecuing event on the risk of cancer for men and women of low body weight was higher compared to higher bodyweight. However, the difference due to sex and bodyweight between subgroups are dwarfed by the uncertainty. This study proposes a model that can be applied to other substances and routes of exposure, and allows for deriving the change in risk following a specific change in behaviour. The presented methodology can serve as a valuable tool for risk management, allowing for the formulation of behaviour advice targeted to specific sub-groups in the population.

Several chemical compounds that potentially increase the risk of developing cancer in humans are formed during heat processing of meat. Estimating the overall health impact of these compounds in the population requires accurate estimation of the exposure to the chemicals, as well as the probability that different levels of exposure result in disease. The overall goal of this study was to evaluate the impact of variability of exposure patterns and uncertainty of exposure data in burden of disease estimates. We focus on the first phase of burden of disease modelling, i.e. the estimation of exposure to selected compounds in the Danish population, based on concentration and consumption data. One of the challenges that arises in the probabilistic modelling of exposure is the presence of “artificial” zero counts in concentration data due to the detection level of the applied tests. Zeroinflated models, e.g. the Poisson-Lognormal approach, are promising tools to address this obstacle. The exposure estimates can then be applied to dose-response models to quantify the cancer risk.