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In the marine environment, dynamic physical processes shape biological productivity and predator-prey interactions across multiple scales. Identifying pathways of physical-biological coupling is fundamental to understand the functioning of marine ecosystems yet it is challenging because the interactions are difficult to measure. We examined submesoscale (less than 100 km) surface current features using remote sensing techniques alongside ship-based surveys of krill and baleen whale distributions in the California Current System. We found that aggregative surface current features, represented by Lagrangian coherent structures (LCS) integrated over temporal scales between 2 and 10 days, were associated with increased (a) krill density (up to 2.6 times more dense), (b) baleen whale presence (up to 8.3 times more likely) and (c) subsurface seawater density (at depths up to 10 m). The link between physical oceanography, krill density and krill-predator distributions suggests that LCS are important features that drive the flux of energy and nutrients across trophic levels. Our results may help inform dynamic management strategies aimed at reducing large whales ship strikes and help assess the potential impacts of environmental change on this critical ecosystem.

Global trends of ocean warming, deoxygenation, and acidification are not easily extrapolated to coastal environments. Local factors, including intricate hydrodynamics, high primary productivity, freshwater inputs, and pollution, can exacerbate or attenuate global trends and produce complex mosaics of physiologically stressful or favorable conditions for organisms. In the California Current System (CCS), coastal oceanographic monitoring programs document some of this complexity; however, data fragmentation and limited data availability constrain our understanding of when and where intersecting stressful temperatures, carbonate system conditions, and reduced oxygen availability manifest. Here, we undertake a large data synthesis to compile, format, and quality-control publicly available oceanographic data from the US West Coast to create an accessible database for coastal CCS climate risk mapping, available from the National Centers for Environmental Information (accession 0277984) at 10.25921/2vve-fh39 (Kennedy et al., 2023). With this synthesis, we combine publicly available observations and data contributed by the author team from synoptic oceanographic cruises, autonomous sensors, and shore samples with relevance to coastal ocean acidification and hypoxia (OAH) risk. This large-scale compilation includes 13.7 million observations from 66 sources and spans 1949 to 2020. Here, we discuss the quality and composition of the synthesized dataset, the spatial and temporal distribution of available data, and examples of potential analyses. This dataset will provide a valuable tool for scientists supporting policy- and management-relevant investigations including assessing regional and local climate risk, evaluating the efficacy and completeness of CCS monitoring efforts, and elucidating spatiotemporal scales of coastal oceanographic variability.

2022 marked the third consecutive La Niña and extended the longest consecutive stretch of negative Oceanic Niño Index since 1998-2001. While physical and biological conditions in winter and spring largely adhered to prior La Niña conditions, summer and fall were very different. Similar to past La Niña events, in winter and spring coastal upwelling was either average or above average, temperature average or below average, salinity generally above average. In summer and fall, however, upwelling and temperature were generally average or slightly below average, salinity was close to average and chlorophyll a was close to average. Again, as during prior La Niña events, biomass of northern/southern copepods was above/below average off Oregon in winter, and body size of North Pacific krill in northern California was above average in winter. By contrast, later in the year the abundance of northern krill dropped off Oregon while southern copepods increased and body sizes of North Pacific krill fell in northern California. Off Oregon and Washington abundances of market squid and Pacific pompano (indicators of warm, non-typical La Niña conditions) were high. In the 20th century, Northern anchovy recruitment tended to be high during cold conditions, but despite mostly warm conditions from 2015-2021 anchovy populations boomed and remained high in 2022. Resident seabird reproductive success, which tended in the past to increase during productive La Niña conditions was highly variable throughout the system as common murre and pelagic cormorant, experienced complete reproductive failure at Yaquina Head, Oregon while Brandt’s cormorant reproduction was average. At three sampling locations off central California, however, common murre reproduction was close to or above average while both pelagic and Brandt’s cormorant were above average. California sealion reproduction has been above average each year since 2016, and pup weight was also above average in 2022, likely in response not to La Niña or El Niño but continuous high abundance of anchovy. The highly variable and often unpredictable physical and biological conditions in 2022 highlight a growing recognition of disconnects between basin-scale indices and local conditions in the CCE. “July-December 2022 is the biggest outlier from individual “strong” La Niña (events) ever going back to the 50s.” – Nate Mantua

In late 2020, models predicted that a strong La Niña would take place for the first time since 2013, and we assessed whether physical and biological indicators in 2021 were similar to past La Niñas in the California Current Ecosystem (CCE). The Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Oceanic Niño Index indeed remained negative throughout 2021; the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation Index, however, remained strongly negative. The seventh largest marine heatwave on record was unexpectedly present from April to the end of 2021; however, similar to past La Niñas, this mass of warm water mostly remained seaward of the continental shelf. As expected from past La Niñas, upwelling and chlorophyll were mostly high and sea surface temperature was low throughout the CCE; however, values were close to average south of Point Conception. Similar to past La Niñas, abundances of lipid-rich, northern copepods off Oregon increased. In northern California, unlike past La Niñas, the body size of North Pacific krill (Euphausia pacifica) was close to average. Predictably, overall krill abundance was above average in far northern California but, unexpectedly, below average south of Cape Mendocino. Off Oregon, similar to past La Niñas, larval abundances of three of six coastal species rose, while five of six southern/offshore taxa decreased in 2021. Off California, as expected based on 2020, Northern Anchovy (Engraulis mordax) were very abundant, while Pacific Sardine (Sardinops sagax) were low. Similar to past La Niñas, market squid (Doryteuthis opalescens) and young of the year (YOY) Pacific Hake (Merluccius pacificus), YOY sanddabs (Citharichthys spp.), and YOY rockfishes (Sebastes spp.) increased. Southern mesopelagic (e.g., Panama lightfish Vinciguerria lucetia, Mexican lampfish Triphoturus mexicanus) larvae decreased as expected but were still well above average, while northern mesopelagic (e.g., northern lampfish Stenobrachius leucopsarus) larvae increased but were still below average. In line with predictions, most monitored bird species had above-average reproduction in Oregon and California. California sea lion (Zalophus californianus) pup count, growth, and weight were high given the abundant Anchovy forage. The CCE entered an enduring La Niña in 2021, and assessing the responses of various ecosystem components helped articulate aspects of the system that are well understood and those that need further study.

The COVID-19 pandemic caused unprecedented cancellations of fisheries and ecosystem-assessment surveys, resulting in a recession of observations needed for management and conservation globally. This unavoidable reduction of survey data poses challenges for informing biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, developing future stock assessments of harvested species, and providing strategic advice for ecosystem-based management. We present a diversified framework involving integration of monitoring data with empirical models and simulations to inform ecosystem status within the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem. We augment trawl observations collected from a limited fisheries survey with survey effort reduction simulations, use of seabird diets as indicators of fish abundance, and krill species distribution modeling trained on past observations. This diversified approach allows for evaluation of ecosystem status during data-poor situations, especially during the COVID-19 era. The challenges to ecosystem monitoring imposed by the pandemic may be overcome by preparing for unexpected effort reduction, linking disparate ecosystem indicators, and applying new species modeling techniques.

The California Current System (CCS) has experienced large fluctuations in environmental conditions in recent years that have dramatically affected the biological community. Here we synthesize remotely sensed, hydrographic, and biological survey data from throughout the CCS in 2019–2020 to evaluate how recent changes in environmental conditions have affected community dynamics at multiple trophic levels. A marine heatwave formed in the north Pacific in 2019 and reached the second greatest area ever recorded by the end of summer 2020. However, high atmospheric pressure in early 2020 drove relatively strong Ekman-driven coastal upwelling in the northern portion of the CCS and warm temperature anomalies remained far offshore. Upwelling and cooler temperatures in the northern CCS created relatively productive conditions in which the biomass of lipid-rich copepod species increased, adult krill size increased, and several seabird species experienced positive reproductive success. Despite these conditions, the composition of the fish community in the northern CCS remained a mixture of both warm- and cool-water-associated species. In the southern CCS, ocean temperatures remained above average for the seventh consecutive year. Abundances of juvenile fish species associated with productive conditions were relatively low, and the ichthyoplankton community was dominated by a mixture of oceanic warm-water and cosmopolitan species. Seabird species associated with warm water also occurred at greater densities than cool-water species in the southern CCS. The population of northern anchovy, which has been resurgent since 2017, continued to provide an important forage base for piscivorous fishes, offshore colonies of seabirds, and marine mammals throughout the CCS. Coastal upwelling in the north, and a longer-term trend in warming in the south, appeared to be controlling the community to a much greater extent than the marine heatwave itself.

Warm conditions in the North Pacific in 2014-15 were a result of the continuation of the North Pacific marine heat wave, a large area of exceptionally high SST anomalies that originated in the Gulf of Alaska in late 2013. The North Pacific heat wave interacted with an El Niño developing in the equatorial Pacific in 2015. Weekly periods of exceptionally high temperature anomalies (>2˚C) occurred until the start of the El Niño (winter of 2015), when SSTs were still high but not as high as those due to the marine heat wave. During the 2015-16 El Niño, the depth of the 26.0 kg m-3 isopycnal (d26.0) was considerably shallower than during the 1982- 83 and 1997-98 events. The area affected by the marine heat wave and the 2015-16 El Niño in the mixed layer was comparable to the 1997-98 El Niño, but lasted longer. Water column stratification in the upper 100 m during 2015-16 was as strong as the most extreme values during the 1997-98 El Niño. This stratification was primarily driven by the warming of the upper 100 m. Despite notable perturbations, the effects of the 2015- 16 El Niño on hydrographic properties in the CalCOFI domain were not as strong as those observed during the 1997-98 El Niño. Warm ocean conditions, stratification, nutrient suppression, and silicic acid stress likely favored initiation of a toxic Pseudo-nitzschia bloom in fall 2014. Very low zooplankton displacement volumes were associated with anomalously warm and saline surface waters off Baja California. In contrast, during the 1997-98 El Niño, zooplankton volume was near average. Off California, pelagic red crab (Pleuroncodes planipes) adults were abundant in the water column and frequently washed up on beaches of southern California from January 2015 into 2016, and central California by September 2015. Glider measurements of integrated transport up to June 2015 did not detect anomalous northward advection. As expected, HF radar indicated northward surface currents along the central California coast in fall and winter 2015-16. Northward advection appeared to be much stronger during the 1997-98 El Niño. Throughout 2015-16, the zooplankton community on the Oregon shelf was dominated by lipid-poor tropical and sub-tropical copepods and gelatinous zooplankton, indicating poor feeding conditions for small fishes that are prey for juvenile salmon. The presence of rarely encountered species increased copepod species richness during 2015-16 to levels higher than the 1998 El Niño. We infer that the unusual copepod vagrants of 2015-16 originated from an offshore and southwesterly source; an important difference from the southerly origin of vagrants during the 1997-98 El Niño. The very warm conditions caused sardine spawning to shift from central California to Oregon. Mesopelagic fish assemblage off southern California exhibited higher abundances of species with southern affinities, and lower abundances of species with northern affinities. Forage fish (Pacific herring, northern anchovy, and Pacific sardine) were much less abundant in 2015-16 compared to previous years. In contrast, catches of salmon were close to average off northern California. Catches of young-ofthe- year rockfishes were high off central California, but low off both northern and southern California. Seabirds at Southeast Farallon Island in 2015 exhibited reduced breeding populations, reduced breeding success, lower chick growth rates, and lower fledging weights. Common murres were negatively affected in central and northern California, but seabird responses were species-specific. It is clear from the results presented here that the warm anomaly effects on the ecosystem were complicated, regionally specific, and that we do not fully understand them yet.

With a rapidly changing climate, there is an increasing need to predict how species will respond to changes in the physical environment. One approach is to use historic data to estimate the past influence of environmental variation on important demographic parameters and then use these relationships to project the abundance of a population or species under future climate scenarios. However, as novel climate conditions emerge, novel species responses may also appear. In some systems, environmental conditions beyond the range of those observed during the course of most long-term ecological studies are already evident. Yet little attention has been given to how these novel conditions may be influencing previously established environment-species relationships. Here, we model the relationships between ocean conditions and the demography of a long-lived seabird, Brandt's cormorant (Phalacrocorax penicillatusI), in central California and show that these relationships have changed in recent years. Beginning in 2007/2008, the response of Brandt's cormorant, an upper trophic level predator, to ocean conditions shifted, resulting in lower than predicted survival and breeding probability. Survival was generally less variable than breeding probability and was initially best predicted by the basin-scale forcing of the El Niño Southern Oscillation rather than local ocean conditions. The shifting response of Brandt's cormorant to ocean conditions may be just a proximate indication of altered dynamics in the food web and that important forage fish are not responding to the physical ocean environment as expected. These changing relationships have important implications for our ability to project the effects of future climate change for species and communities.

This report reviews the state of the California Current System (CCS) between winter 2012 and spring 2013, and includes observations from Washington State to Baja California. During 2012, large-scale climate modes indicated the CCS remained in a cool, productive phase present since 2007. The upwelling season was delayed north of 42°N, but regions to the south, especially 33° to 36°N, experienced average to above average upwelling that persisted throughout the summer. Contrary to the indication of high production suggested by the climate indices, chlorophyll observed from surveys and remote sensing was below average along much of the coast. As well, some members of the forage assemblages along the coast experienced low abundances in 2012 surveys. Specifically, the concentrations of all lifestages observed directly or from egg densities of Pacific sardine, Sardinops sagax, and northern anchovy, Engraulis mordax, were less than previous years’ survey estimates. However, 2013 surveys and observations indicate an increase in abundance of northern anchovy. During winter 2011/2012, the increased presence of northern copepod species off northern California was consistent with stronger southward transport. Krill and small-fraction zooplankton abundances, where examined, were generally above average. North of 42°N, salps returned to typical abundances in 2012 after greater observed concentrations in 2010 and 2011. In contrast, salp abundance off central and southern California increased after a period of southward transport during winter 2011/2012. Reproductive success of piscivorous Brandt’s cormorant, Phalacrocorax penicillatus, was reduced while planktivorous Cassin’s auklet, Ptychoramphus aleuticus was elevated. Differences between the productivity of these two seabirds may be related to the available forage assemblage observed in the surveys. California sea lion pups from San Miguel Island were undernourished resulting in a pup mortality event perhaps in response to changes in forage availability. Limited biological data were available for spring 2013, but strong winter upwelling coastwide indicated an early spring transition, with the strong upwelling persisting into early summer.

We will test the primary hypothesis that coastward advection of bottom cold-salty water during intense wind-driven upwelling provides conditions conducive forE. pacifica(the more oceanic species) to move onto the continental shelf where they become abundant and available to predators “early” in the season each year. As a corollary, we will test the hypothesis that as upwelling relaxes “later” in the season each year,E. pacificamoves offshore where it is less available to predators, andT. spinifera(the more coastal species) develops, becoming the dominant euphausiid in shelf waters and predator diets.

Declines of Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus) populations in the Aleutian Islands and Gulf of Alaska could be a consequence of physical oceanographic changes associated with the 1976-77 climate regime shift. Changes in ocean climate are hypothesized to have affected the quantity, quality, and accessibility of prey, which in turn may have affected the rates of birth and death of sea lions. Recent studies of the spatial and temporal variations in the ocean climate system of the North Pacific support this hypothesis. Ocean climate changes appear to have created adaptive opportunities for various species that are preyed upon by Steller sea lions at mid-trophic levels. The east-west asymmetry of the oceanic response to climate forcing after 1976-77 is consistent with both the temporal aspect (populations decreased after the late 1970s) and the spatial aspect of the decline (western, but not eastern, sea lion populations decreased). These broad-scale climate variations appear to be modulated by regionally sensitive biogeographic structures along the Aleutian Islands and Gulf of Alaska, which include a transition point from coastal to open-ocean conditions at Samalga Pass westward along the Aleutian Islands. These transition points delineate distinct clusterings of different combinations of prey species, which are in turn correlated with differential population sizes and trajectories of Steller sea lions. Archaeological records spanning 4000 yr further indicate that sea lion populations have experienced major shifts in abundance in the past. Shifts in ocean climate are the most parsimonious underlying explanation for the broad suite of ecosystem changes that have been observed in the North Pacific Ocean in recent decades. © 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Seabird-vessel interactions are often studied through the lens of fisheries bycatch, but seabirds encounter many watercraft types. Western Gulls Larus occidentalis breeding on the Farallon Islands (California, USA) have a foraging domain that encompasses both shipping lanes and productive fishing grounds, resulting in ample opportunities for vessel encounters. Previous research showed that these Western Gulls can serve as ecosystem indicators because their foraging behavior is linked to ocean prey conditions, and because their foraging grounds overlap with that of Humpback Whales Megaptera novaeangliae, which can make prey accessible. Because ship strikes and entanglement in fishing gear are concerns for whales in this region, we investigated gull-vessel interactions as a proxy for identifying whale ship-strike risk by assessing the geographical overlap between GPS-tracked gulls and vessels using the Automatic Identification System. During 2014-2019, 40% of tracked gulls encountered a vessel, resulting in 85 encounters. Gulls mostly encountered cargo ships and tug/pilot boats, mainly within the shipping lanes (79%). Over 30% of these encounters co-occurred with gull foraging events, and most encounters were situated within shipping lanes (80%). Moreover, most gull foraging events began before the vessel encounters, which appeared to interrupt gull behavior. Interannual variability of encounters was mainly related to gull foraging locations: during years of high oceanic productivity, foraging more frequently occurred at sea rather than nearshore or on land, leading to more encounters with ships. This study builds on work that documented overlap between Humpback Whales and Western Gulls but did not test whether foraging gulls encountered vessels. We found that some vessel encounters coincided with gull foraging events; from that, we suggest that the real-time processing of seabird tracking data could provide additional information on whale distribution (which is more difficult to study) within regions of high ship-strike risk and could be included as another tool for dynamic ocean management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In spring-summer 2005, anomalous atmospheric-oceanographic coupling caused unprecedented reproductive failures and redistribution of a planktivorous marine bird in both central California (37°N) and southern British Columbia (50°N). At SE Farallon Island, CA, the birds abandoned the breeding colony en masse between 10-20 May, a unique behavioral response; for the first time in 35 years, reproductive success was zero. At Triangle Island, B.C., only 8% of the nesting pairs were successful, the worst year on record. Surveys of birds at sea revealed a peak in relative abundance south of Point Conception (34°N) in summer and fall, suggestive of emigration from the north. Prey (euphausiid crustacean) biomass in the Gulf of the Farallones was reduced, but remained high south of Point Conception. Change in predator and prey may be explained, in part, by unusual atmospheric blocking in the Gulf of Alaska in May, which caused the jet stream to shift southwards resulting in poor upwelling-favorable winds and anomalously warm SST. This study demonstrates the deleterious consequences of this climate event for a top marine predator in the central-northern California Current System. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

Strong tidal currents crossing over the abrupt topography of the Aleutian Passes result in regions with high horizontal property gradients. These frontal regions vary with the tidal cycle and form the boundary between vertically mixed and stratified regions. Concentrations of seabirds were associated with convergence zones in the mixed water (MW) and with the front between North Pacific (NP) water and MW. Species that were foraging by picking at prey from the surface were associated with surface convergences that appeared to be associated with Langmuir circulation cells or tidal features (all fulmar aggregations) in the central passes (Samalga, Seguam). In contrast, sub-surface foraging puffins and small alcids were mostly observed in areas of turbulent, well-mixed water near the shallow regions of the passes. Short-tailed shearwater flocks that were plunge-diving for prey were associated with the front between the NP water and MW in the passes. On our transects, we observed no significant aggregations of seabirds associated with Bering Sea water or NP water away from the frontal zones. The interaction of strong currents with bathymetric features results in zones of vertical advection, mixing, and surface convergences that make island passes attractive foraging regions for seabirds. Deep passes lacking these features, such as many of the passes in the western Aleutian Archipelago, are not as likely to facilitate trophic transfer to top predators as shallow passes, such as those found in the eastern Aleutian Islands. © 2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

We investigated prey consumption by marine birds and their contribution to cross-shelf fluxes in the northern Gulf of Alaska. We utilized data from the North Pacific Pelagic Seabird Database for modeling energy demand and prey consumption. We found that prey consumption by marine birds was much greater over the continental shelf than it was over the basin. Over the shelf, subsurface-foraging marine birds dominated food consumption, whereas over the basin, surface-foraging birds took the most prey biomass. Daily consumption by marine birds during the non-breeding season ("winter") from September through April was greater than daily consumption during the breeding season, between May and August. Over the shelf, shearwaters, murres and, in winter, sea ducks, were the most important consumers. Over the basin, northern fulmars, gulls and kittiwakes predominated in winter and storm-petrels dominated in May to August. Our results suggest that marine birds contribute little to cross-shelf fluxes of energy or matter, but they do remove energy from the marine system through consumption, respiration and migration. © 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

In the late 1990s, the southeastern Bering Sea exhibited a number of anomalous conditions, including a major die-off of short-tailed shearwaters (Puffinus tenuirostris), a trans-equatorial migrant that constitutes a major portion of the marine bird biomass in the southeastern Bering Sea. As part of a larger study of the ecological role of the inner or structural front over the southeastern Bering Sea shelf, in 1997-1999, we collected short-tailed shearwaters to determine diet composition. In spring 1997, we found that short-tailed shearwaters were consuming predominately the euphausiid Thysanoessa raschii, a diet expected on the basis of past studies. However, in subsequent years, short-tailed shearwater diets in spring contained increasingly larger proportions of fish, in particular, sandlance (Ammodytes hexapterus), as well as other species of euphausiids (T. inermis in 1999). In summer and fall collections, short-tailed shearwater diets were more varied than in spring, and included both fish (age-0 gadids, 21-35% by weight) and a wider variety of euphausiid species (T. inermis and T. spinifera). In summer and fall, crab zoea (August 1998) and copepods (August 1999) were eaten by shearwaters collected while feeding within the inner front. Diets in 1997-1999 were broader than those found in previous studies of short-tailed shearwaters over the inner shelf and Bristol Bay, which had documented diets composed almost solely of T. raschii. Our data are consistent with the hypothesis that euphausiids were less available to short-tailed shearwaters foraging over the middle and coastal domains of the southeastern Bering Sea in 1997-1999 than has previously been true. Our results are also consistent with hypothesis that the inner front can affect the availability of prey to shearwaters. © 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.