1. Inferring Risks of Coronavirus Transmission from Community Household Data
- Author
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House, Thomas, Riley, Heather, Pellis, Lorenzo, Pouwels, Koen B., Bacon, Sebastian, Eidukas, Arturas, Jahanshahi, Kaveh, Eggo, Rosalind M., and Walker, A. Sarah
- Subjects
Statistics - Applications ,Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution ,62P10 - Abstract
The response of many governments to the COVID-19 pandemic has involved measures to control within- and between-household transmission, providing motivation to improve understanding of the absolute and relative risks in these contexts. Here, we perform exploratory, residual-based, and transmission-dynamic household analysis of the Office for National Statistics (ONS) COVID-19 Infection Survey (CIS) data from 26 April 2020 to 15 July 2021 in England. This provides evidence for: (i) temporally varying rates of introduction of infection into households broadly following the trajectory of the overall epidemic and vaccination programme; (ii) Susceptible-Infectious Transmission Probabilities (SITPs) of within-household transmission in the 15-35% range; (iii) the emergence of the Alpha and Delta variants, with the former being around 50% more infectious than wildtype and 35% less infectious than Delta within households; (iv) significantly (in the range 25-300%) more risk of bringing infection into the household for workers in patient-facing roles pre-vaccine; (v) increased risk for secondary school-age children of bringing the infection into the household when schools are open; (vi) increased risk for primary school-age children of bringing the infection into the household when schools were open since the emergence of new variants., Comment: 27 pages, 7 figures
- Published
- 2021