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Suspended sediment concentration is an important estuarine health indicator. Estuarine ecosystems rely on the maintenance of habitat conditions, which are changing due to direct human impact and climate change. This study aims to evaluate the impact of climate change relative to engineering measures on estuarine fine sediment dynamics and sediment budgets. We use the highly engineered San Francisco Bay-Delta system as a case study. We apply a process-based modeling approach (Delft3D-FM) to assess the changes in hydrodynamics and sediment dynamics resulting from climate change and engineering scenarios. The scenarios consider a direct human impact (shift in water pumping location), climate change (sea level rise and suspended sediment concentration decrease), and abrupt disasters (island flooding, possibly as the results of an earthquake). Levee failure has the largest impact on the hydrodynamics of the system. Reduction in sediment input from the watershed has the greatest impact on turbidity levels, which are key to primary production and define habitat conditions for endemic species. Sea level rise leads to more sediment suspension and a net sediment export if little room for accommodation is left in the system due to continuous engineering works. Mitigation measures like levee reinforcement are effective for addressing direct human impacts, but less effective for a persistent, widespread, and increasing threat like sea level rise. Progressive adaptive mitigation measures to the changes in sediment and flow dynamics resulting from sea level rise may be a more effective strategy. Our approach shows that a validated process-based model is a useful tool to address long-term (decades to centuries) changes in sediment dynamics in highly engineered estuarine systems. In addition, our modeling approach provides a useful basis for long-term, process-based studies addressing ecosystem dynamics and health., Coastal Engineering

This paper is not subject to U.S. copyright. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 114 (2009): F04019, doi:10.1029/2008JF001191., Hindcasting decadal-timescale bathymetric change in estuaries is prone to error due to limited data for initial conditions, boundary forcing, and calibration; computational limitations further hinder efforts. We developed and calibrated a tidal-timescale model to bathymetric change in Suisun Bay, California, over the 1867–1887 period. A general, multiple-timescale calibration ensured robustness over all timescales; two input reduction methods, the morphological hydrograph and the morphological acceleration factor, were applied at the decadal timescale. The model was calibrated to net bathymetric change in the entire basin; average error for bathymetric change over individual depth ranges was 37%. On a model cell-by-cell basis, performance for spatial amplitude correlation was poor over the majority of the domain, though spatial phase correlation was better, with 61% of the domain correctly indicated as erosional or depositional. Poor agreement was likely caused by the specification of initial bed composition, which was unknown during the 1867–1887 period. Cross-sectional bathymetric change between channels and flats, driven primarily by wind wave resuspension, was modeled with higher skill than longitudinal change, which is driven in part by gravitational circulation. The accelerated response of depth may have prevented gravitational circulation from being represented properly. As performance criteria became more stringent in a spatial sense, the error of the model increased. While these methods are useful for estimating basin-scale sedimentation changes, they may not be suitable for predicting specific locations of erosion or deposition. They do, however, provide a foundation for realistic estuarine geomorphic modeling applications., This study was supported by the U.S. Geological Survey’s Priority Ecosystems Science program, CALFED Bay/Delta Program, and the University of California Center for Water Resources. Use of ROMS and the CSTMS was supported by the U.S. Geological Survey, with assistance from John Warner.

This paper is not subject to U.S. copyright. The definitive version was published in Journal of Coastal Research 20 (2004): 510-522, doi:10.2112/1551-5036(2004)020[0510:IONSOC]2.0.CO;2., Lake-level change and landslides are primary controls on the development of coastal environments along the coast of northeastern Lake Michigan. The late Quaternary geology of Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore was examined with high-resolution seismic reflection profiles, ground-penetrating radar (GPR), and boreholes. Based on sequence-stratigraphic principles, this study recognizes ten stratigraphic units and three major unconformities that were formed by late Pleistocene glaciation and postglacial lake-level changes. Locally high sediment supply, and reworking by two regressions and a transgression have produced a complex stratigraphy that is prone to episodic failure. In 1995, a large landslide deposited approximately 1 million m3 of sediment on the lake floor. The highly deformed landslide deposits, up to 18 m thick, extend 3–4 km offshore and unconformably overlie well-stratified glacial and lacustrine sediment. The landslide-prone bluff is underlain by channel-fill deposits that are oriented nearly perpendicular to the shoreline. The paleochannels are at least 10 m deep and 400 m wide and probably represent stream incision during a lake-level lowstand about 10.3 ka B.P. The channels filled with sediment during the subsequent transgression and lake-level highstand, which climaxed about 4.5 ka B.P. As lake level fell from the highstand, the formation of beach ridges and sand dunes sealed off the channel and isolated a small inland lake (Glen Lake), which lies 5 m above the level of Lake Michigan and may be a source of piped groundwater. Our hypothesis is that the paleochannels act as conduits for pore water flow, and thereby locally reduce soil strength and promote slope failure., Generous support for this project was provided by Max Holden and Steve Yancho of Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore.