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Discrete time alternating renewal process is a very simple tool that permits solving many real life problems. This paper, after the presentation of this tool, introduces the compound environment in the alternating process giving a systematization to this important tool. The claim costs for a temporary disability insurance contract are presented. The algorithm and an example of application are also provided., SCOPUS: ar.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published

This study was designed to explore the effect of authoritative parenting, over and above the effect of explicitly religious parenting practices, on the juvenile and adult church attendance of offspring. Data were collected as part of a panel study in which 474 Dutch respondents were questioned in 1983 as youths and in 2007 as adults. In 2007 the respondents retrospectively answered questions about how they were raised by their parents. Analyses revealed that juvenile church attendance depends mainly on parental and more specifically on maternal church attendance, whereas adult church attendance is largely an outcome of juvenile church attendance. No effects of an authoritative parenting style, that is, a simultaneous effect of responsiveness, strict control, and the granting of psychological autonomy as the three dimensions of authoritative parenting distinguished in this study, were observed. Only the dimension of strict control turned out to be a negative determinant of adult church attendance.

The claims reserving problem is currently one of the most debated in actuarial literature. The high level of interest in this topic is due to the fact that Solvency II rules will come into operation in 2014. Indeed, it is expected that quantile computations will be compulsory in the evaluation of company risk and for this reason we think that the construction of the claims reserve random variable distribution assumes a fundamental relevance.The aim of this paper is to present a method for constructing the claims reserve distribution which can take into account IBNyR (Issued But Not yet Reported) claims in a natural way. The construction of the distribution function for each time of the observed interval is done by means of a Monte Carlo simulation model applied on a backward time semi-Markov process. It should be pointed out that this is the first time that a simulation model based on semi-Markov with backward recurrence time has been presented. The method is totally different from the models given in the current literature.The most important features given in the paper are:1) for the first time the Monte Carlo simulation method is applied to a backward semi-Markov environment;2) the Monte Carlo simulation permits the construction of the random variable of the claims reserve for each year of the studied horizon in a natural way;3) as already pointed out, the backward process attached to the semi-Markov process permits taking into account the evaluation of the IBNyR claims in a natural way.In the last part of the paper an applicative example constructed from tables that summarise 4 years of claims from an important Italian insurance company will be given.

The authors explore the effect of a religious upbringing on church attendance later in life. To this purpose, people who had been interviewed in 1983 as secondary students about their upbringing as well as other characteristics, were interviewed again in 2007 about the same topics. Comparisons between the 1983 and the 2007 data reveal that church attendance dropped significantly among these people during this period. Furthermore, it is shown that a religious upbringing is not a good predictor of church attendance later in life. These conclusions apply to Protestants and Catholics alike, as separate analyses for Catholics, Dutch Reformed and Re-Reformed reveal.

This paper reports on a study of the relation between church membership and religious belief among a sample of Dutch forty-year-olds. First it describes developments in church membership between 1983 and 2007, using a longitudinal data set. This results in the identification of five groups: stable non-members, stable nominal members, stable core members, converts and apostates. Next the religious beliefs of these membership groups are studied from the perspective of two theoretical positions. From the perspective of secularization the assumption is tested that core members and converts will primarily endorse traditional, orthodox religious beliefs. From the perspective of religious individualization two alternative assumptions emerge. First, moderate levels of traditional religiosity will persist among nominal members and apostates and, secondly, nominal members and apostates will prefer alternative religious beliefs. The study supports the assumption relating to secularization, but is less clear about the assumptions relating to religious individualization.

In this paper, we present a model to describe the evolution of the yield spread by considering the rating evaluation as the determinant of credit spreads. The underlying rating migration process is assumed to be a non-homogeneous discrete time semi-Markov process. We calculate the total sum of mean basis points paid within any given time interval. From this information we show how it is possible to extract the time evolution of expected interest rates and discount factors.

This paper shows how to apply discrete time non-homogeneous semi-Markov processes (DTNHSMP) with an age index to credit risk. The idea is to consider the credit risk problem as a reliability model indexed by the age and in this way, many semi-Markov results could be adapted to describe credit risk problem. The default state is seen as a "non working state". As the semi-Markov process is a generalization of Markov process, the presented model can be seen as a more general migration model. In fact, in semi-Markov environment the distribution function (d.f.) of the waiting time before a transition can be of any type and without the strong constraints of the Markov model. Furthermore, some results on the asymptotic behavior of the presented model are given. This permits the construction of the d.f. of the default random variable for each "working state". An example, constructed manipulating some Standard & Poor's (S&P) data, is presented.

Contains fulltext : 73336.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Closed access) The object of this research is to clarify the concepts 'healthy religiosity' and 'salutary faith' in order to provide criteria for the assessment of a person's faith both in (mental) health care and in pastoral care. Based on the scientific literature, a questionnaire composed according to the Delphi method was presented in several rounds to a panel of psychologists/psychiatrists and theologians. The preferred 'translation' of the English term 'mature religion', chosen as an encompassing term, into Dutch was 'integrated faith'; another favoured term was 'adult faith'. Six core elements achieved consensus: sincerity, amazement, inspiration, identity, integrity, openness. Twenty-one (21) criteria could be clustered into three factors: 'Orientation to higher values out of a sense of inner freedom', 'Trust in God pervades the entire life', 'Responsibility for fellow humans and creation'. After due reflection on the outcomes, it is proposed that justice should be done to all relevant dimensions of human existence by extending the biopsychosocial model to a biopsychosocial-spiritual model, abbreviated to BPSS. 21 p.

This paper analyses the HIV/AIDS dynamic evolution as defined by CD4 levels, from a macroscopic point of view, by means of homogeneous semi-Markov stochastic processes. A large number of results have been obtained including the following conditional probabilities: an infected patient will be in statejafter a timetgiven that she/he entered at time 0 (starting time) in statei; that she/he will survive up to a timet, given the starting state; that she/he will continue to remain in the starting state up to timet; that she/he reach stagejof the disease in the next transition, if the previous state wasiand no state change occurred up to timet. The immunological states considered are based on CD4 counts and our data refer to patients selected from a series of 766 HIV-positive intravenous drug users.