1. Bayesian interim analysis for prospective randomized studies: reanalysis of the acute myeloid leukemia HOVON 132 clinical trial
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Niek G. van der Maas, Jurjen Versluis, Kazem Nasserinejad, Joost van Rosmalen, Thomas Pabst, Johan Maertens, Dimitri Breems, Markus Manz, Jacqueline Cloos, Gert J. Ossenkoppele, Yngvar Floisand, Patrycja Gradowska, Bob Löwenberg, Gerwin Huls, Douwe Postmus, Francesco Pignatti, and Jan J. Cornelissen
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Neoplasms. Tumors. Oncology. Including cancer and carcinogens ,RC254-282 - Abstract
Abstract Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the gold standard to establish the benefit-risk ratio of novel drugs. However, the evaluation of mature results often takes many years. We hypothesized that the addition of Bayesian inference methods at interim analysis time points might accelerate and enforce the knowledge that such trials may generate. In order to test that hypothesis, we retrospectively applied a Bayesian approach to the HOVON 132 trial, in which 800 newly diagnosed AML patients aged 18 to 65 years were randomly assigned to a “7 + 3” induction with or without lenalidomide. Five years after the first patient was recruited, the trial was negative for its primary endpoint with no difference in event-free survival (EFS) between experimental and control groups (hazard ratio [HR] 0.99, p = 0.96) in the final conventional analysis. We retrospectively simulated interim analyses after the inclusion of 150, 300, 450, and 600 patients using a Bayesian methodology to detect early lack of efficacy signals. The HR for EFS comparing the lenalidomide arm with the control treatment arm was 1.21 (95% CI 0.81–1.69), 1.05 (95% CI 0.86–1.30), 1.00 (95% CI 0.84–1.19), and 1.02 (95% CI 0.87–1.19) at interim analysis 1, 2, 3 and 4, respectively. Complete remission rates were lower in the lenalidomide arm, and early deaths more frequent. A Bayesian approach identified that the probability of a clinically relevant benefit for EFS (HR
- Published
- 2024
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