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Population displacement from Puerto Rico to the United States following Hurricane Maria is considered and distinguished from ongoing outmigration from the island. Administrative data from two sources is used to estimate displacement with a capture-recapture method which, unlike existing estimates, excludes outmigration that occurs independent of the hurricane. The estimates are compared with preceding trends in outmigration from the US Census Bureau. The results show that nearly 90,000 individuals or about 2.7% of Puerto Ricans (95% CI: 2.5%, 2.9%) were displaced through May 2018. Displacement was highest (approximately 4.7%) from southeastern Puerto Rico where the hurricane made landfall and, counter to earlier outmigration patterns indicated by data from the American Community Survey, was comparatively low from the region near San Juan (4.0% pre-hurricane outmigration against 2.4% post-hurricane displacement). Displacement rates were higher in areas with higher levels of Federal Emergency Management Agency-certified damage to housing (3.3% in areas with high damage against 2.2% in areas with low damage) but did not consistently differ by indicators of socioeconomic disadvantage, including poverty and unemployment rates. Households’ intent to return indicates that those who will not return are more likely to be younger or be unemployed (86% of individuals under the age of 30 will not return, whereas 58% of individuals aged 65 and up will not return, and 84% of employed households will return, whereas 68% of unemployed ones will); these characteristics align with those commonly observed among outmigrants in the decade prior to the hurricane. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we study the elasticity of educational spending with respect to changing student numbers, in a system where educational spending is autonomously determined at a regional level. While many studies focus on the potential effect of an ageing society on educational spending, only a few explicitly analyse the direct effect of changing cohort sizes. We find that education expenditures respond rather loosely to changing student numbers and that the elasticity strongly depends on regional and institutional settings. In rural areas, for instance, educational spending tends to be completely inelastic, which raises questions regarding both, efficiency and equity concerns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large vessels that call at European ports will have to pay for their CO2 emissions from transporting cargo that enters or goes from a European port since January 2024. The costs will increase with increasing global trade. This results in a higher pollution level, including greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions like CO2.

The ageing of the population impacts all areas and is also a challenge for human resources management. To solve this issue, age management practices are used in organisations. To get the best potential out of everyone, this concept should not only involve older employees but should be focused on all of them. Choosing the right practice to get the desired results is a task for managers.

European cities and regions are facing depopulation and an ageing population, leading to a shift in the demand and supply of goods and giving rise to the silver economy. This demographic change has an impact on urban and regional planning, which is influenced by both internal and external migration.

Firms in younger labor markets produce more innovation. We establish this by instrumenting the current labor force with historical births in each local labor market in the United States. Analyses of firms and inventors allow us to rule out unobservable heterogeneity across local labor markets and firms, life cycles, and other effects. Corporate innovation in younger labor markets reflects the innovative characteristics of younger labor forces, and its market value is higher. Younger workers as a group, not merely inventors by themselves, produce more innovation for firms through the labor force channel rather than through a financing or consumption channel. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix , which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper documents an unprecedented decrease in young homeownership since the Great Recession driven by regions with high house prices. Using a panel of U.S. metro areas, I calibrate an equilibrium spatial macro-finance model with overlapping generations of mobile households. The dynamics of regional housing markets is explained by an aggregate credit contraction with heterogeneous local impacts rather than by local shocks. Lower millennial income and wealth amplify its effect. The impact of subsidies to first-time buyers is dampened, because they fail to stimulate regions that suffer from larger busts. Place-based subsidies achieve larger gains. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix , which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Each states play pivotal roles in contributing to the economic performance of the nation. They have their own unique economic strengths, resources, and industries that contribute to the overall economic development. Terengganu, an east coast state in Malaysia has historically faced economic challenges, marked by a lag in development compared to other regions. The fundamental problem addressed is the potential correlation between educational attainment and the region’s economic growth, aiming to understand how advancements in education might serve as a catalyst for economic progress. The objective of this research is to empirically analyze the impact of educational achievement on the economic development in Terengganu. Utilizing secondary data sourced from the Department of Statistics Malaysia and Economy Planning Unit Terengganu spanning from 2006 to 2022, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model has been employed to estimate and understand the relationship between educational attainment and economic development. The findings suggested that educational achievement plays positive impact in heightening the economic development within the region. Education contributes to the development of human capital, fostering a skilled and knowledgeable populace capable of engaging in diverse economic activities. This, in turn, attracts investments and facilitates the emergence of industries and sectors that rely on a knowledgeable and skilled labour force. This study would provide valuable insights for policymakers and academicians to formulate targeted policies and initiatives, ultimately enhancing the economic development of the states, thus contribute to a prosperous Malaysia.

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AbstractNumerous recent empirical studies underscore the adverse impacts of an aging population on economic growth. This could stem from reduced labor force participation and productivity among older workers, or the potential for aging to result in an imbalance between savings and desired investment, consequently leading to a state of secular stagnation. This study employs the fixed effect model (FEM) and utilizes data from 7 ASEAN countries during the period 2001–2021 to assess the impact of population aging on economic growth. The results clearly indicate that an old-aged dependency harms GDP per capita growth, while the productive young workers in the ASEAN region remain a significant resource for overall economic development and GDP per capita growth. Alongside demographic variables, institutions, investment rates, and trade openness also serve as driving factors in promoting GDP per capita growth. The data also demonstrates that more developed countries will experience population aging at a faster rate. Therefore, the socio-economic development policies of ASEAN countries need to consider changes in population age structure in order to propose appropriate economic strategies for development.

The aim of this study is to characterise the determinants of the development of the silver economy in the field of care services provided in a residential form for dependent elderly persons in Poland. The analysis was carried out on the basis of statistical and financial background data, including those from the Ministry of Family and Social Affairs, the Ministry of Health, OECD, etc. Although the demand for care services will continue to grow in the coming years, the following barriers to the development of this segment of the silver economy can be identified: lack of employees, unattractiveness of monetary gratification, inefficient financing mechanisms, lack of public investment in the development of care facilities, and increasing costs of providing services in all forms.

In recent years a demographic crisis has been observed and the inverted age pyramid is hard proof of that. Due to that one can notice a need for a prolongation of the economic activity of older people. However, it is not an easy task in the case of ageism.

This paper aims to discuss the notion of silver entrepreneurship in the context of the silver economy. Policy-wise knowing who silver entrepreneurs are and what it takes to support them is an essential step to productively managing the ageing population and promoting an age-ready but age-friendly approach to creating a sustainable economy and society in the new demographic reality. The paper provides a theoretical and empirical literature review of silver entrepreneurship to identify the current state of the art. It also identifies selected policies and strategies aiming to foster silver entrepreneurship, representing a more inclusive and age-diverse entrepreneurial landscape. The silver entrepreneurship proves to be a challenging research field due to the elusive nature of entrepreneurship itself and the lack of universal definitions for this phenomenon.

Disability-free life expectancy had been rising continuously in the United States until 2010, suggesting working longer as a solution for those financially unprepared for retirement. However, recent developments suggest improvements in working life expectancy have stalled, especially for minorities and those with less education. This paper uses data from the National Vital Statistics System , the American Community Survey , and the National Health Interview Survey to assess how recent trends, up to 2018, in institutionalization, physical impediments to work, and mortality have affected working life expectancy for men and women age 50, by race and education. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the heterogeneity in life expectancy by socioeconomic status increases, many pension systems imply a wealth transfer from short- to long-lived individuals. Various pension reforms aim to reduce inequalities that are caused by ex-ante differences in life expectancy. However, these pension reforms may induce redistribution effects. We introduce a dynamic general equilibrium-overlapping generations model with heterogeneous individuals that differ in their education, labor supply, lifetime income, and life expectancy. Within this framework we study six different pension reforms that foster the sustainability of the pension system and aim to account for heterogeneous life expectancy. Our results highlight that pension reforms have to be evaluated at various dimensions. Reforms that may increase the sustainability of the pension system are not necessarily conducive to reduce the redistributive wealth transfers from short- to long-lived individuals. Our paper emphasizes the need for studying pension reforms in models with behavioral feedback and heterogeneous socioeconomic groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study develops a Malthusian model for the evolution of human society from hunting-gathering to agriculture and from agriculture to industrial production. Human society evolves across these stages as the population grows. However, under endogenous population growth, the population may stop growing at any stage. If it fails to reach the first threshold, the population remains as hunter-gatherers. If it reaches the first threshold, an agricultural society emerges. Then, if the population fails to reach the industrial threshold, it remains in an agricultural Malthusian trap without experiencing industrialization. Interestingly, high agricultural productivity triggers not only the Neolithic Revolution but also the subsequent industrialization. Using cross-country data to test this result, we employ an index of prehistoric biogeographic conditions that affect agricultural productivity as an instrument for the timing of transitions to agriculture and find that an earlier transition to agriculture has a positive effect on industrialization in the modern era. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper empirically investigates the saving consequence of population aging, an issue that is important for policymaking and still far from uncontroversial. Rather than providing another piece of evidence to verify the positive or negative correlation between population aging and saving, the contribution of the paper is to consider the moderating role of financial development in the nexus. In a cross-country panel data setting, we find that population aging proxied by old-age dependency decreases saving, but the effect diminishes with financial development. The opposite is found for life expectancy. Financial development weakens the saving-increasing effect of life expectancy. The findings hold for different types of saving and controlling for per-capita income growth. The data suggest that life expectancy may offset the effect of old-age dependency, limiting the influence of population aging on saving. The evidence also suggests that financial development constrains the saving effect of population aging and the need to consider a country’s extent of financial development to address the saving consequence as a population ages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cities function in people’s minds as reservoirs of opportunities and possibilities. For many people, living in a city seems an attractive and logical life choice compared to areas perceived as provincial. However, the reality of the modern city is also associated with numerous nuisances. The occurrence of these disadvantages has led to the development of mechanisms intended, at least in principle, to counteract the ills of urban life. One such mechanism is the phenomenon of suburbanization. The outpouring of urban functions beyond its boundaries occurs all over the world. However, this phenomenon also entails exacerbating transport bottlenecks, requires a lot of local investment, contributes to the deterioration of the environment, and disrupts household time budgets. This paper addresses population change as one of the demographic aspects of suburbanization. The trends characterizing the outflow of population from cities and the inflow of population to suburban areas has been examined. The study covers several of Poland’s largest cities using data from the 2011 and 2021 National Censuses. The main objectives of this study are to assess the scale of suburbanization in large and medium-sized Polish cities, so as to determine whether suburbanization occurs similarly regardless of city size. To identify those urban centers where the population change in neighboring municipalities is particularly high so as to raise the awareness of decision-makers and real estate market participants in relation to the challenges posed by suburbanization. In addition, using one city as an example, an assessment of how the influx of population affects number of transactions on selected real estate market was carried out. The results of the study may be useful in analyzing investment needs for various types of infrastructure, including roads and technical infrastructure.

Aim/purpose – The benefit of changing the population age structure only accrues to an economy if the labor market absorbs the increasing number of the working population at a given labor income that surpasses the prevailing consumption of that age group. However, the prevailing conditions in Nigeria suggest that consumers outweigh producers amidst the increasing working-age share of the population. While the demographic dividend has been established in some advanced countries, the same cannot be said in Nigeria. Thus, this study uses annual data projections by the United Nations to examine the interplay between consumption, labor income, and the economic support ratio in Nigeria between 2001 and 2050.

Aim/purpose – This study investigated the nexus between labor force dynamics and economic performance in Nigeria, India, and China.

AbstractWe simulate the impact of an increase in immigration into the Atlantic Provinces based on the FOCUS macro-econometric model at the University of Toronto. That national model was adapted to reflect the regional dimensions of the Atlantic Provinces. We find robust evidence of positive outcomes for the Atlantic region so long as it is part of a broader increase in immigration for the country as a whole. The positive outcome encompasses higher GDP and GDP per capita, higher consumption, and improved government fiscal balances at both the federal and provincial levels that could in turn be used for tax reductions or the enhancement of government services. These benefits could be enhanced further by carefully targeting new immigrants for needed skills and for their likelihood of remaining in the Atlantic region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies social security reforms in a model with declining population growth and increasing life expectancy. Based on simulations using data on China, it is found that a switch from a pay-as-you-go (PAYG) system to a notional defined contribution system favors the rich, causes the poor to work more, and may change the capital-effective labor ratio depending on the rate of return to personal accounts. A switch from the PAYG system to a modified PAYG system that saves part of the receipts, with the interest rate greater than the growth rate, increases labor supply and decreases the capital-effective labor ratio in period one; decreases labor supply and increases the capital-effective labor ratio after period one; and hurts the poor old more than the rich old while benefitting the poor in future generations more than the rich. If the interest rate is less than the growth rate, the accumulated funds are insufficient to balance the social security budget. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fertility and income are negatively related at the aggregate level. However, evidence from recent periods suggests that increasing income leads to higher fertility at the individual level. In this paper, I provide a simple theory that resolves the apparent contradiction. I consider the education and fertility choices of individuals with different learning abilities. Acquiring higher education requires an investment of time and income. As a result, people with higher education have fewer children but, controlling for the level of education, increasing income leads to higher fertility. Rising income and skill premiums motivate more people to pursue higher education, resulting in a negative income-fertility association at the aggregate level. I investigate the explanatory power of the theory in a model calibrated for the US during 1950–2010. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores trends in time alone and with others in the United States. Since 2003, Americans have increasingly spent their free time alone on leisure at home and have decreasingly spent their free time with individuals from other households. These trends are more pronounced for non-White individuals, for males, for the less educated, and for individuals from lower-income households. Survey respondents who spend a large fraction of their free time alone report lower subjective well-being. As a result, differential trends in time alone suggest that between-group subjective well-being inequality may be increasing more quickly than previous research has reported. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article develops a demographic method to estimate the civilian noninstitutional population for counties and county equivalents in the U.S. While these data provide the key sampling frame for national labor market surveys and denominators for labor market prevalence rates, the data are thus far unavailable for small areas. I develop a modified cohort component method to produce novel, monthly estimates of the civilian noninstitutional population for all U.S. counties using publicly available data on population and vital statistics with minimal modifications. The resulting population data may be used by researchers and policymakers to study within-year population dynamics as they relate to economic and demographic factors. I further extend the method to produce short-term population projections that include the most current vital statistics. The method compares favorably to existing annual, midyear estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau, but is prone to error in areas with fewer vital events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the forecasting accuracy of several simple methods for predicting mortality in small regional areas in Poland. We focus on methods that scale country-level forecasts appropriately and, therefore, can be used by official statistical agencies to improve population projections. We examine data from 379 sub-NUTS-3 districts in Poland for the period 2006–2019, divided into three subperiods. The first period is treated as the training sample and the latter two the testing subperiods. The mortality surface method delivers the most accurate forecasts of the mortality profiles whereas using the district-level standardized mortality rates (SMR) calculated for several broad age groups to scale the country-level mortality forecasts gives the best life expectancy at birth predictions. The latter approach is far better than using the NUTS-2-based standardized mortality rate (SMR), as practiced by the Polish statistical agency. For single age-groups predictions, the SMR-based methods deliver relatively accurate forecasts for young cohorts, but their forecasting accuracy deteriorates significantly with age. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]